Let me say finally, this just flat out is not working well. Sagarins calculations had OSU as high as finishing 3rd in the conference. That has fallen apart and OSU has fallen to 7th. There are 7 games left in conference and Sagarin predicts they will win all 5 of the home games. They have lost only one game this year that they should not have lost and that was to ASU. They were predicted early on to beat CU and didn't. But leading up to that game Sagarin's number predicted a loss. OSU beat the ducks in Eugene but Sagarin predicted they would. They upset Cal but lost to Stanford in a game Sagarin thought OSU should have won. In the end they are pretty much doing what they were predicted to do. They are on pace to win 20 games. The real problem is with Oregon, CU, and Washington. Sagarin did not see them coming. This is now the home stretch, literally.

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Should I eat crow or was it just a reverse jinx? The big suprise last week was Washington. UW helped to drop AZ's predicted record and of course helped their own cause. So with the Civil War win you would think that the same thing would happen for OSU and UO, but no. Remember, OSU was predicted to win the civil war. The trouble is with Thursdays game. The Colorado game has flopped from a win to a loss due to CU's blowout at USC. The spread is still by half of a half of a point. But because of this Colorado is now predicted to finish in a three way tie with OSU and Washington. Oregon reaps the benefit of this by moving into a two way tie with AZ. So, what needs to happen to change the Sagarin future? Here is what I am hoping for in the games this week. None of this is a stretch of the Sagarin imagination.

1. Oregon State needs to upset CU tommorrow and beat Utah Saturday.

2. UCLA needs to upset UW tommorrow.

3. CAL is predicted to beat UA and they better do it tommorrow.

4. Stanford is predicted to beat UA and they better do it too.

5. The Ducks need to lose to CU on Saturday.

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Last week was good for what ailed us in Beaver Nation. The biggest surprise was that WSU beat Cal. Sagarin thought they were 5.5 point dogs. It helps to put some perspective on what the Sagarin point spread can tell us. If the spread is within 6 and the underdog is at home then the game is a toss up. With that in mind I give you the OSU-UO spread. OSU is favored by 0.23 pts. That's right, less than one half of one half of one point. It is the closest spread of any game in the Pac this weekend. Good thing they are saving it for Sunday, Sunday, Sunday. My heart is with OSU but my money is on Oregon. That spread is too close for the home dog to really lose.

The wins last week helped to push the Beavs back to higher in the standings. Sagarin predicts them to finish 4th again but this time they are tied with the Ducks. That still has them meeting Oregon in the second round of the Pac-12 tournament. Somehow, someway, the Beavs will finish 4th. That is kind of hard to believe.

I checked the RPI recently and the Beavs are somewhere around 140 and the Ducks are around 60. Sagarin on the other hand loves the Beavs more and has them around 55 in Predictor and 73 overall while the Ducks hover around 100 in both Sagarin ratings. I have put a lot of time into this Sagarin thing and I hope he turns out to be right.

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Last week seemed so bad that I didn't even want to do this FanPost. The Beavs needed a split and didn't get it. Worse yet, Oregon swept. But, like the Beavs, I will finish what I started for better or worse. Besides, the numbers might find a silver lining.

This week OSU must sweep to keep any hope of winning record in conference alive. As it is now, Sagarin predicts them to finish 9-9, tied with Colorado and way behind Oregon at 12-6. This puts OSU at the 5 seed. And that got me thinking. What about the Pac-12 tournament? So I put together a spreadsheet that seeds the teams based on a 12 team single elimination format. I don't know if this is the exact format the Pac-12 will use, but after a little looking around the uncensored web it seems like it is highly likely that this is their only option. I have been using Sagarin's Predictor ratings so I simply put those current ratings head to head with no home court advantage. I also noted the point spread. The results are awesome. Currently OSU is the 5th seed which starts off with the 12th seed, Utah. We then meet 4th seed Oregon and beat them, don't ask me how right now, then face the one seed Cal in the semis. Ah Cal. That is the silver lining I was looking for.

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Last week, Oregon St got the split that Sagarin predicted, but they got the games backwards and beat the tougher team. Oregon surprised again and got a split. Arizona lost like they needed to and Washington and Washington St did us a big favor by losing to Colorado.

CU must be loving their decision to move to the Pac-12.That good feeling will surely go away this weekend after they visit the bay area and get swept. The Beaver State teams should split their games in desert by beating ASU.

The final standings predictions have not changed at the top. We find OSU slipping away from Arizona and back solely in 4th place. The game against AZ tomorrow is not a must win, but if it happens then 3rd place in conference becomes a whole lot easier. The real pressure will be to win at ASU on Saturday. Oregon is only two games back in 5th. That is almost too close for comfort.

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In case you have missed it, I have a spread sheet I created using the Sagarin Predictor values and the Pac-12 schedule to create a prediction for the conference at the end of the year. It is dynamic as upsets happen but it does give a good idea of what to expect, and what to watch for.

The games this past weekend changed almost nothing for any team in conference. It pains me to type it but Oregon grabbed the only upset. As a result they moved up a few spots and helped drop WSU.

For OSU, the Cal game Thursday was predicted as a win last week but now is a predicted loss. But that prediction is still by less than a point. This loss is why OSU dropped to 4th in conference predictions this week. It goes without saying, there needs to be an upset Thursday. The Stanford game Saturday is a predicted win. It is one of only three games that Stanford is predicted to lose this year in conference. That is quite the compliment.

In other games, watch for the Arizona loss at UCLA. It must happen to give OSU a shot at 3rd in conference. It is possible AZ could also lose at USC as Sagarin only gives AZ a 1.5 point advantage. An interesting note is that the UW@CU and WSU@CU games are close enough that CU could win either. That would help keep UW and/or WSU off our heals. I know we also would like to see the ducks get swept but if they split this weekend then they help us in our efforts to catch Stanford or Cal as long as OSU takes care of business. The flip side is the RPI argument. Do we really want our best teams in conference losing any unnecessary games?

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All of the Pac-12 non-conference games are over except for Colorado. They open conference play with Utah on Saturday so they filled up with New Orleans, a D2 school I guess. From here on out I will try to update once a week on, let's say, Wednesday nights.

All I can say now is that Sagarin thinks there will be some tight games played this weekend. He thinks OSU will lose but by less than a point. Folks, these games are VERY winnable.

The standings have changed to reflect future wins at home against Cal and Stanford next weekend. These too are tight and could go any way. That helps to bump the Beavs up to 3rd in the conference.

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The non-conference schedule is over for OSU and some things have changed since the last post. California pulled into a tie with Stanford, the Washington schools flip flopped, UCLA is getting better, and Utah upset Portland but still looks to tie our old record for conference futility.

But that is not why I am excited to post this today. The big news is how winnable the next 5 games have become.

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I updated the spreadsheet from earlier in the week. The Beavers have moved up into the top 60 in the Sagarin ratings as of today. This helps to keep hope alive for an NCAA bid. Their results improved by one win in conference as the ratings now imply that they can beat Oregon on "the court with orange trees".

It appears that Texas (84.14) is the best team the Beavs have played and should be the third hardest team they play all season behind Stanford (89.38) and Cal (86.13). It is also interesting that the Idaho team (78.11) is currently rated about the same as Vanderbilt (79.25).

I also wanted to point out that Sagarin has OS rated higher than WSU and AZ but the Beavers could finish lower in the standings. This is due to our new unbalanced schedule of the Pac-12. Guess who only has to play Cal and Stanford once. Hint, it is not the Beavs.

Below is the predicted final conference standings and the predicted results of the remaining OS schedule. Enjoy.

I am a bit of a spreadsheet junkie. I created a spreadsheet that uses Pac-12 teams schedule and the Sagarin Predictor ratings for every team and their opponents to get this seasons predicted final standings. Of course you can't predict injuries, suspensions, death of friends, and other bad mojo but it does give you an idea of what teams are doing right now. I like this spreadsheet because it helps me to understand who is good and who is bad and by how much.

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