SB Nation User Blog: HardRockTroy

Josh Smith Anyone?

HardRockTroy — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:42:52 -0000

With Camby to the Clippers, Maggette and co. to the Warriors, and Brand to the Sixers...every potential suitor for Josh Smith has effectively withdrawn. The only team left with significant cap space is Memphis and they're not spending this year. So that leaves Smith with three options...sign the one-year tender, sign a long-term deal with Atlanta, hope for a sign and trade.

Smith and Mike Woodson have had a number of run-ins and it's been speculated that Smith doesn't want to play for the Hawks if Woodson is around. Woodson just signed a two-year contract extension. So is there an opening for some team to pry Smith out of Atlanta? Can the Kings be that team? Should the Kings be that team?

Smith is definitely moody, volatile, and unpredictable (sound familiar?). But the guy is only 22 years old, might be the best shot-blocker in the league, can slide between the 3 and the 4, and fills a stat sheet like few players can. Maybe he grows up. Maybe he just needs to get out from under Mike Woodson. Or maybe he blows up. I'm not sure what happens with Smith...but I think he's worth the risk.

So why not offer Miller and Artest for Smith (signed at 5 years, 60-65MM) and that Zaza guy (1 year, 4MM left on his deal).

Why the Kings do it: They get younger, more athletic, and a guy who can play either the 3 or the 4 depending on JT's development. New core of Martin, Smith, JT, Hawes. They lose out on shedding K9's salary and would actually increase their cap for next year though.

Why the Hawks do it: Top 8 rotation of Bibby, Joe Johnson, Artest, Horoford, Miller, Childress, Marvin Williams, Acie Law. That's a top 5 team in the East, no? Or at least close to it? I'm sure Bibby wouldn't exactly be thrilled seeing Ron-Ron again but that team is better than the current Hawks if they simply resign Smith.

So, uh...Josh Smith anyone?

David Thorpe on Singletary

HardRockTroy — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:26:59 -0000

David Thorpe takes a look at the top rookies in Vegas and Orlando. Nice review for Singletary:

One of the better point guard performances I've seen this summer. He's got speed and handle to get wherever he wants, but unlike most PGs trying to make a statement in the summer, he always looked for a teammate first.

Refreshing to finally have some speed from the point guard spot. JT gets some love too. See the whole article here.

Petrie The Talent Evaluator vs Petrie The Negotiator

HardRockTroy — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 20:29:45 -0000

First and foremost, the Kings would be nowhere without Petrie in my opinion. Before Petrie, the roster was a jumbled mess. Random players, horrible coaches, poor draft picks. After Petrie, the franchise had purpose and direction for the first time in the Sacramento era. While the C-Webb Kings didn’t win a championship, that team made Sacramento hoops relevant in the NBA. Say whatever you want about Petrie, but the man always has a plan and he doesn’t deviate from it.

That being said, I wonder if Petrie’s record in talent evaluation has masked his weakness in contract negotiations. As proof, his past draft picks, trades, and free agent deals/contract extensions:

FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICKS

1996: Peja.

Players selected directly after Kings pick: Nash, Jermaine O’Neal, John Wallace

1997: Abdul-Wahad.

After Kings pick: Croshere, Derek Anderson, Mo Taylor, Calvin Kato

1998: J-Will.

After Kings pick: Larry Hughes, Dirk, Pierce, Bonzi

1999: No Pick

2000: Hedo

After Kings pick: Desmond Mason, Quentin Richardson, Jamal Magloire

2001: Gerald Wallace

After Kings pick: Dalembert, Tinsley, Tony Parker

2002: Dan Dickau

Last Pick in the first round.

2003: No Pick.

2004: Kmart

After Kings pick: Sasha Vujacic, Beno, David Harrison

2005: Cisco

After Kings pick: Luther Head, Johan Petro, Jason Maxiel, Kleiza

2006: Douby

After Kings pick: Balkman, Rondo, Marcus Williams

2007: Hawes

After Kings pick: Acie Law, Thaddeus Young, Julian Wright, Thornton

Yes, some of the names selected behind the Kings picks have been a bit more sexy (Nash, Dirk, Pierce)…but this list doesn’t take into account need. 1998 for example. Kings needed a point guard. They picked Williams. Only pick that looks unforgivably bad right now is Douby.

Petrie “missed” on more picks than I thought but his hit rate is still around 50%...not bad considering the majority of these picks were towards the end of Round 1.

NOTABLE TRADES (filler players excluded)

Richmond for Webber
Corliss for Christie
Abdul Wahad for Nick Anderson
J-Will for Bibby
Hedo, Pollard for Miller
Webber for K9, Corliss, Skinner
Christie for Mobley
Peja for Artest
Bobby Jackson for Bonzi
Bibby for Sheldon and expirings

Petrie won nearly every trade. Bibby and Webber went out on salary dumps…count those more against the Maloofs than Petrie. Mobley, Bonzi, and Artest have been far from earth-shattering deals but each of them out-performed the player they were traded for. The Webber acquisition, Christie, and Bibby deals were ridiculously one-sided.

NOTABLE FREE AGENCT CONTRACTS/EXTENSIONS

Vlade…6 years/60MM
Webber…7 years/123MM
Christie…7 years/49MM
Miller…7 years/68MM
Bibby…7 years/81MM
Bonzi…5 years/37MM (thank you Bonzi for saying no)
Salmons…full MLE/5 years
SAR…full MLE/5 years
Mikki…full MLE/2 years + option
Beno…full MLE/5 years
Martin…5 years/50MM

Forgive me if some of my numbers are off. Most of the above was done from memory. But yikes. The only deal on this list that looks solid is Martin…and that assumes he continues his upward trend. I understand Petrie had to over-spend in the beginning to get players to consider Sacramento (see Vlade)…that’s part of the process in turning a doormat into a contender. But I seem to remember at least three deals where the Kings were already established (Webber, Miller, Bonzi) and no one else was even close to the numbers Petrie offered. The Christie, Bibby, Bonzi deals/offers were all deemed over-priced within one or two years of the agreement. Injured or not, SAR has been a bust. Mikki was fine last year but not worth the full MLE. Jury is out on Salmons and Beno. If Salmons becomes a starter in the future, I think he’ll be worth it. If not, no.

I understand it’s much easier to pass judgment on these deals now as opposed to when they were signed. But that’s what you pay your GM for, no? To have vision. To predict how players will perform down the road. To pay them accordingly. To manage the salary cap. Whether it’s too much involvement from the Maloofs, the need to overpay because of location (Sac vs Miami/LA/Boston/etc), or his inability to properly read the market, Petrie has overpaid too often and the cap has been hurt because of it.

This aspect of a GM’s job is far too often overlooked. I’m not saying talent evaluation isn’t important because that’s huge. But you wouldn’t rather have the $15MM cash instead of SAR, Mikki, and Salmons right now? Those players haven’t added anything to the Kings other than moving them further back in the draft. Personally, I'd rather have minimum salary players, a few years to take it on the chin, and the resulting high draft pick.

I’m not sure what the answer is. But I know teams like the Spurs and Pistons have set the model. They’re aggressive in negotiations and they don’t give in to an agent’s demands. Sure, championships will help you accomplish that. But they have consistently been able to sign their stars to below-market level deals (Duncan, Mano). They stay away from long-term deals for role players (Salmons, Moore, SAR, Beno). They let players go before the rest of the league sees what they see (Ben Wallace). They maintain cap flexibility. And now it seems like the Sonics and Blazers are adapting the same model. Why not the Kings? Why not Petrie?

I want to reiterate again that Petrie’s impact on the Kings has been HUGE…I just worry that he may be getting passed up by the likes of Buford, Presti, and Dumars. And I worry that the Kings ultimate goal is to clear up cap space for 2010. I would much rather see Petrie fleece some unsuspecting GM this off-season (I know it’s not exactly popular here but I would love to see Marion or Kirilenko in town…or both) than overspend for a fringe player in 2010. We've already seen Petrie the Negotiator once this off-season...now I'd love to see Petrie the Talent Evaluator.

Livingston

HardRockTroy — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:15:11 -0000

It was a bit hidden in Amick's post yesterday on Beno but I'm surprised there hasn't been more interest in the follwoing line:

"The Clippers aren't expected to exercise the team option on point guard Shaun Livingston and are believed to have strong interest in Udrih."

Yes, Livingston has some serious injury history...but they've been freak injuries. When right, the guy is a true pass-first point guard who plays lock-down defense. And he's only 21 years old. Personally, I'd much rather take a flier on Livingston than re-up Udrih. Beno is a decent point guard but he'll never be a top 10 point. Livingston has that potential. With the Kings at least a few years away from serious contention, why not take that risk?

A backcourt of 6-7 Livingston and 6-7 Martin...both long and athletic, would be a handful. And a point guard who can actually deliver the ball where it needs to be...when it needs to be there would make a huge difference for guys like Martin, Hawes, and Cisco.

Free Agency or Trade?

HardRockTroy — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 18:58:51 -0000

Been a fan of this board for a long time. Seen a lot of trade proposals recently...most of them centering around expiring contracts with the hope of acquiring a top-level free agent. One problem with that. Will a top-level free agent really want to sign with the Kings?

Unfortunately, these aren't the Kings of old and the league knows it. Players used to be willing to overlook the franchise's flaws. They wanted to play for the Maloofs...to play for a winner...to play in Adelman's offense with pass-friendly bigs. Now? The Kings have a coach who has been praised around the league but not so much in his own locer room, an aging arena with horrendous player facilities, and a team that's stuck in the quandry of "we're not good enough for the playoffs but not bad enough for a high lottery pick". Throw in the fact that Sac isn't exactly the most appealing destination to young NBA millionaires and you've got a bit of a problem.

So what does Petrie do? In my opinion, he has to look at trades in one of the following ways: target a young-ish fading star who has the chance to rebound in a new environment (ie. Webber) or find raw talent with unlimited YET unreached potential (ie. Gerald Wallace). My suggestion:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=25~61~312~434~138~2393~497&teams=12~12 ~23~23~26~23~26&te=&cash=

End Result...

Kings Get:
Kirilenko
Livingston
Hart

Clippers Get:
Artest
Bibby

Jazz Get:
Maggette
Cassell

This accomplishes both goals in a single trade. Gets the Kings a freakish big and a young pass-first point guard. Lineup next year would be:

Livingston/Beno (resigned at MLE)
Martin/Cisco
Salmons/Cisco
Kirilenko/Moore
Miller/Hawes

Hiccups to the deal? The Jazz have been hot since acquiring Korver. Would they want to make a deal? It's not a secret Kirilenko is playing out of position and that they have long coveted Maggette (Clippers matched Jazz offer sheet). Plus Cassell gives them the Derek Fisher backup they've been missing since last year. Maybe a stretch but not impossible.

For the Clippers, are they willing to throw in the towel on Livingston? The trade actually gives them a formidable lineup when healthy: Bibby, Mobley, Artest, Brand, Kaman. But they'd have to resign Bibby, Artest, and Brand in the next two years. As someone who lives in SoCal and witnesses the genius of Donald Stirling on a daily basis though...I wouldn't put it past him.

Hoping to sign a free agent at the end of the year or trading for someone like Gooden, Varajeo, or Haslem isn't going to turn the Kings into a legit playoff team. Petrie has to get talent in return and the only way to do that is by taking a risk. He's not getting equal value on paper for Artest and Bibby...just not going to happen.