SB Nation User Blog: Harry Pavlidis

A Few AFL PITCHf/x Leaders

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:14:14 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Drew Storen can do this for real, too.

I like the Arizona Fall League. I've been tracking and classifying a lot pitches, thanks to the PITCHf/x installations in Peoria and Surprise. Nearly 10,000 pitches through Saturday's Rising Stars Game.

Let's take a look-see at some of my favorite stats. These are based only on PITCHf/x data. Some, such as ground ball rates, can be expanded to cover the non-PITCHf/x games, too. But I'm not. I'm also collapsing across pitch types due to sample size issues and a lack of finality on many of those classifications.

Anyway, on with the Strasburg. I mean Storen. I mean show.

The minimum pitch total I'm using is 59. Read Hardball Times on Tuesday and you'll figure out why. Hint: Aaron Crow's pitch total.

	Whiff
Lee Hyde	0.458
Sergio Santos	0.396
Michael Dunn	0.377
Scott Gorgen	0.373
Craig Kimbrel	0.353
Robert Wooten	0.345
Stephen Strasburg	0.339
Daniel Moskos	0.333
Zach Braddock	0.333
Jenrry Mejia	0.317

	B:CS
Drew Storen	1.4
Michael Dunn	1.4
Zach Braddock	1.4
Robert Wooten	1.4
Daniel Meszaros	1.4
Dustin Richardson	1.5
Matthew Long	1.6
Mike Leake	1.6
Logan Ondrusek	1.6
Aaron Hartsock	1.6

	In Wide Zone
Wilton Lopez	0.646
Logan Ondrusek	0.646
Mike Parisi	0.632
Jeff Lyman	0.604
Carlton Smith	0.597
Ryohei Tanaka	0.591
Bryan Augenstein	0.589
Ian Kennedy	0.580
Michael Dunn	0.579
Drew Storen	0.577

	GB%
Aaron Hartsock	75%
Stephen Strasburg	73%
Carlton Smith	69%
Josh Wilkie	67%
Connor Graham	64%
Jeff Mandel	63%
Jenrry Mejia	63%
Wilton Lopez	62%
Tommy Mendoza	59%
Javy Guerra	59%

	LD%
Wilton Lopez	0%
Spencer Steedley	0%
Steve Hirschfeld	0%
Brennan Garr	4%
Sergio Santos	5%
Joshua Fields	6%
Javy Guerra	6%
Aaron Hartsock	6%
Daniel Meszaros	7%
Drew Storen	8%

Notice how well Mejia and Strasburg rank in Whiffs and Ground balls? Storen is all over the place, along with Dunn.

Speed Check - AFL vs. MLB

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 01:47:00 -0000

Stephen Strasburg's fastball is raising some interesting questions. While Strasburg was on the mound on Monday, a Tweet and an email (so old fashioned) came in asking about the Surprise, AZ, PITCHf/x data. Was it hot?

Strasburg throwing 101 was a surprise to many, and seeing him sit near 98 for a few innings raised more questions. I took a look at the two PITCHf/x installations in the Arizona Fall Leauge (Surprise and Peoria) this morning at the Hardball Times.

The basic conclusion was, no, the system in Surprise isn't hot. Relative to Peoria, that is.

Assuming the two systems are pretty much on par, the opportunity came up to compare AFL pitchers to themselves as MLB pitchers. Using release speed (55 ft. from home plate) I was able to compare data from 14 pitchers.

Nothing fancy and statistical, but, as you browse the baker's dozen + 1 set of images below, I think you'll probably reach the same conclusion I did.

The years shown in the parentheses indicate the MLB seasons the pitcher appeared in. The scale is to the game (actually at bat) and varies by pitcher. September 2009 call-ups will have a vastly different x-axis scale compared to a pitcher who worked back in 2007. But it's the y-axis (MPH) that matters.

Bryan Augenstein (2009)

Randor Bierd (2008)

Josh Butler (2009)

Michael Dunn (2009)

Matt Harrison (2008-2009)

Wilton Lopez (2009)

Ian Kennedy (2007, 2009)

Joe Martinez (2009)

Andrew Miller (2007-2009)

Mike Parisi (2008)

Dustin Richardson (2009)

Travis Schlichting (2009)

Mitch Talbot (2008)

Donald Veal (2009)

AFLf/x ain't hot if you ask me.

Stephen Strasburg Pitch Types

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 23:43:03 -0000

Stephen Strasburg made his second Arizona Fall League start this afternoon. Gameday, as they do with many rookies, had some troubles with his pitch types. The fact that he threw 90 mph change-ups didn't help either.

My own classifications are somewhat tentative, as this is one game from one park. And there are differences between the Peoria installation and Surprise. There's three or four inch difference in release point height, so I'll wait until a game in Surprise for the 2009 first rounder before doing these up in full detail.

Fastballs

Strasburg threw 36 heaters in today's outing. I'm not sure of the two- and four-seam split yet -- right now I think he threw five sinkers, but that's not for sure. In any case, the fastballs from Strasburg came out of his hand at no less than 95, maxing out around 99.6. He sat around 97/98, which is nasty.

This was clearly an off day for Strasburg, so don't make too much of this. Only 48% of his fastballs found the strike zone. Even though hitters took a lot of fastballs in the zone (53% !) his B:CS ratio landed at a hefty (for a fastball) 2.7.

Despite control issues, the whiff rate of .143 against his fastball (swing rate .389) was pretty good, and he got the ball in play on the ground (.667). Still, each ball in play resulted in one base, on average, for an even SLGCON of 1.000.

Off-Speed and Breaking Pitches

Strasburg throws a curveball and a change-up, with the latter not getting much action in college ball (IIRC). Thursday's game saw 10 change-ups and 14 curveballs out of Strasburg. The changes ran from 88 to 92, which is often the fastball range for some starters.

Beyond the speed gap of 7 or 8 mph (very nice), Strasburg's change "sank" about six inches relative to the fastball, which is brutal. If he's hiding that thing at all, yikes. If today was any indication, he was. He kept it out of the zone (30%), but every one he threw for a strike yielded a swing. Two of the seven balls were chased. Of the five total swings, three found nothing but air. Two made contact, on the ground, which still didn't work out well. Both were singles.

Strasburg's curveball isn't a big yakker, but has much as five inches of top-spin induced sink, resulting in a one foot difference from the fastball. It's also thrown in the low 80s, making it pretty vicious.

So, it has good enough snap, above average velocity and, my favorite, he threw 11 of 14 in the strike zone. Six of the 11 were watched by the batters (B:CS ratio of 0.6) and half the swings (six) resulted in whiffs. But, two were left up and in the middle of the plate, and were subsequently sent out of the ballpark for home runs.

Just a Bad Day

Strasburg had bad luck, which he actually made on his own. He hung two curveballs, and paid the price. But not every hung curve is hit, and it remains to be seen if he continues to do that with any regularity. The ground balls that turned into hits were probably more or less out of his hands (relatively speaking). The fastball command was clearly a problem.

So, next time out (hopefully in Surprise), I'll be looking for four things:

Distinguishing sinkers from fastballs
Fastball control
Curveball command
Outcomes of balls in play

And I'll also be enjoying one of the most exciting pitching prospects of recent memory.

Arizona Fall League PITCHf/x - Day One

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:57:12 -0000

No, I won't do this everyday (maybe). Yes, I have a huge back-log of New Arms. More on that below...

Today was opening day in Arizona, as top prospects in the Arizona Fall League started their short season. Thanks to MLBAM, PITCHf/x will be running in Peoria and Surprise (home to 3 of the 6 teams in the league).

The Gameday IDs will be pretty good as things progress, as the MLBAM team is getting more information on the lesser known pitchers in the league. They already have weightings in the system for pitchers who have seen big league time and some from the higher minor leagues, according to Cory Schwartz, Director of Stats for MLBAM.

I quickly classified the pitches from today's game myself, without splitting two- and four-seam fastballs. I want more data from the pitchers, and the new installations, before I get too fancy. All that's after the jump...first, a teaser.

I've got the ALDS and NLDS all tidied up and classified. I'll share some of the numbers tomorrow night.The bigger effort is nearly done ... classifying all pitches thrown in 2009 by rookies. And position players. I've completed initial classifications for all 120-something of them, and I'm in the process of reviewing and revising. Or in the process of getting ready to review and revise. Dang AFL distracted me .... oh yeah, read on for the pitch classifications from today's action in Peoria.

Click the headers to sort.

pitcher	cfx	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Andrew Oliver	Change-up	2	85	5	9	150	1979
Andrew Oliver	Fastball	21	93	4	12	162	2595
Andrew Oliver	Slider	6	83	-5	5	228	1390
Brennan Garr	Fastball	11	91	-7	9	219	2323
Brennan Garr	Slider	3	81	-1	-2	311	385
Eric Krebs	Change-up	3	83	-11	4	251	2081
Eric Krebs	Fastball	17	92	-8	6	234	2125
Eric Krebs	Slider	8	83	-1	-2	251	459
Gary Daley	Change-up	5	84	-7	3	249	1501
Gary Daley	Curveball	1	80	1	-9	10	1561
Gary Daley	Cutter	1	93	0	5	179	981
Gary Daley	Fastball	10	92	-8	4	245	1832
Grant Duff	Change-up	1	83	-7	-1	275	1243
Grant Duff	Curveball	5	83	0	-3	206	765
Grant Duff	Fastball	12	94	-4	8	207	1832
Ian Kennedy	Change-up	6	83	-9	5	241	1871
Ian Kennedy	Curveball	9	78	2	-10	13	1759
Ian Kennedy	Cutter	1	92	-1	7	189	1487
Ian Kennedy	Fastball	29	91	-8	7	229	2057
Ian Kennedy	Slider	7	85	-1	2	230	430
Mike Parisi	Fastball	3	92	-8	5	238	2050
Mike Parisi	Slider	1	86	-2	4	204	923
Omar Aguilar	Change-up	5	81	-11	0	269	2096
Omar Aguilar	Fastball	30	91	-7	7	225	2177
Omar Aguilar	Slider	4	81	1	2	153	556
Robbie Weinhardt	Change-up	4	86	-12	2	260	2402
Robbie Weinhardt	Curveball	9	84	0	-4	166	879
Robbie Weinhardt	Fastball	27	92	-9	2	257	1921
Scot Drucker	Change-up	5	83	-9	3	252	1802
Scot Drucker	Curveball	2	77	3	-5	32	1055
Scot Drucker	Fastball	29	90	-9	7	232	2332
Scot Drucker	Slider	2	79	2	0	89	347
Sergio Santos	Change-up	6	86	-10	1	260	2052
Sergio Santos	Curveball	2	85	0	-8	180	1549
Sergio Santos	Fastball	15	96	-7	4	241	1766
Sergio Santos	Slider	1	86	-1	1	241	266
Zachary Kroenke	Change-up	6	78	4	6	141	1247
Zachary Kroenke	Fastball	16	91	6	9	145	2190
Zachary Kroenke	Slider	3	83	-1	6	194	1126

NLDS Game 1 - Power Yields to Finesse

Harry Pavlidis — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:53:05 -0000

Cliff Lee's post-season debut turned into a complete game gem. Losing a shutout in the 9th was not completely Lee's fault, but, as it goes with baseball, your success as a pitcher isn't your own, either. Lee's finesse game matched-up against Ubaldo Jimenez and his power game, and came out ahead. While the game started as a pitcher's dual, the Phillies blew it open

Age and handedness aside, there is one stark difference from Game 1 of the 2009 post-season - velocity. Jimenez broke 100 six times, 101 twice (101.4 max) and never fell below 95. Lee, meanwhile, only hit 95 twice (95.2 on the sinker and 95.1 on the four-seam).

Jimenez	#	MPH
Change	19	88.5
Curve	12	80.2
Fastball	42	98.5
Slider	10	87.9

Lee	#	MPH
Change	14	85.7
Curve	6	76.8
Sinker	35	93.2
Fastball	27	92.3
Cutter	26	87.7
Slider	2	78.8

Here are my usual favorites. Starting with pitches in the "wide" zone, swing rate, ump's B:CS ratio, swings out of zone (Chase) and takes in it (Watch)

	#	IWZ	Swing	B:CS	Chase	Watch
Jimenez	83	.566	.434	2.4	.222	.404
Lee	110	.655	.455	1.2	.211	.417

Cliff Lee threw more strike than anyone in in 2009, including Ted Lilly. A .6 strike rate is excellent. Even for a single game, .655 is ridiculous. Jimenez, with a .566 strike rate, also did well. He simply got out pitched, in this area.

This next set is a little surprising. Lee missd more bats, Jimenez got more grounders.

	#	Whiff	SLGCON	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%
Jimenez	83	0.139	0.688	50%	25%	0%	25%
Lee	110	0.160	0.333	37%	37%	11%	15%

The Phillies were able to square up a lot of pitches against Jimenez. Lee's cutter was the money pitch, with 67% grounders and 17% pop-ups (the rest of the infield flies were off his four-seamer). Although a sinker thrown for a strike more than three times out of four is pretty nasty.

Moving into run values, negative is better for pitchers, you'll see Jimenez gave up more hits and total bases than expected (rv100E is based on batted ball, or contact, type instead of single/double/out etc) while Lee was dramatically skewed the other way.

	#	rv100	rv100E
Jimenez	83	1.32	0.03
Lee	110	-3.38	-1.06

Simply put, Lee had it going all day. Jimenez was fine, if not better, at the outset.

First four inn.	#	rv100	rv100E
Jimenez	37	-6.66	-2.30
Lee	46	-3.07	-1.41

I'd say Jimenez was better at the start. I was only able to listen to the game and "see" it via PITCHf/x - did it look that way to you?

Should the Giants Back Off Tim Lincecum?

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:26:42 -0000

Last night, Tim Lincecum pitched well but got beat by Carlos Zambrano. What struck me was a difference in peak and overall velocity - Big Z was throwing harder than The Freak.

Zambrano peaked at 96.3, Zambrano was strong, just outside the top third of his peak range. His average fastball speed (93.8, with or without sinkers) was 7th out of 73 starts in average fastball speed (two- and four-seam combined). It was also he best average fastball velocity of 2009.

So, there was probably nothing "in the air" that night pushing The Freak's speed numbers down. Lincecum topped out at 94.3 - that's his lowest peak on record. He averaged 91.4 mph. Throw out the two-seamers and he's at 91.6. Out of Lincecum's 77 PITCHf/x starts, that's dead last.

Pretty impressive for a guy without his best stuff. As the Wild Card slips away, it may be time to protect the franchise's most valuable asset.

Is Lou Expecting Too Much From Zambrano?

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:12:13 -0000

Is Lou Expecting Too Much From Zambrano?

How representative of Big Z's ability was that two-hitter in San Francisco? Weak line-up, cool and damp weather (shocker) and aggressive swings, sure. All things considered, maybe Lou is right. More at the link.

News Flash: Tim Lincecum is Really Good

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 01:14:23 -0000

News Flash: Tim Lincecum is Really Good

Just to depress myself before the Cubs game, I ran some numbers on The Freak. I re-classified his pitches, I'd say 90% complete in terms of sorting out stray sliders (for example), and no sinker/heater breakdown. Still scary.

Esmailin Caridad PITCHf/x Scouting Report

Harry Pavlidis — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:59:34 -0000

Esmailin Caridad PITCHf/x Scouting Report

Some good stuff, and some concerning stuff, on Caridad.

Gil Meche’s fastball

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 14:31:35 -0000

Gil Meche’s fastball

This week at THT, I take look at Gil Meche's down year, in particular, his four-seam fastball.