SB Nation User Blog: Harry Pavlidis

Carlos Silva to Cubs - Baggage Included

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 00:06:19 -0000

Carlos Silva to Cubs - Baggage Included

Careful what you wish for.

Would You Non-Tender Matt Capps?

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 01:02:42 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Get used to seeing Capps in a different uniform.

Browse more photos »

Think fast. The deadline to tender unsigned players a contract is approaching. A key member of your bullpen is coming off a down season. What will you do?

If you're Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington, such decisions are part of your job.

If you're talking about the Matt Capps of '07 or '08, that would be very, very difficult to replace. He's probably not somebody we non-tender. The second half of '08 and into '09 ... it's not that hard to replace a reliever with a 5.00 or 6.00 ERA.

With Matt Capps, it seemed to come down to marketability. Seems that the market was impacted by some news leaks.

In that event, Huntington was asked, why was Capps not traded before that, given that the team surely had its internal valuations on him well before the past week or so: "We were working on it, and we had multiple conversations that disappeared when the media report came out.

Huntington was more explicit in his reasoning during a recent MLB.com chat:

The decision to not tender Matt Capps was a difficult decision. While it is obvious Matt's 2009 performance was not his best, we did feel there were indicators that he would have a better season in 2010. The arbitration process aggressively rewards saves, home runs and wins while not always properly accounting for the metrics behind those numbers. Despite wanting to retain Matt and making an aggressive offer that we believed would be at or near his free-agent value prior to the tender deadline, we felt that the risk of an arbitration award at a substantially higher amount was not a good business decision for us. We may be right or wrong on Matt's free-agent value (and his 2010 performance), and we may be right or wrong on the performance of the pitcher(s) and/or player(s) we re-allocate the money toward, but we felt that it was the right move for us. Obviously, we would have preferred to get something of value in trade for Matt, but given his track record beginning in the second half of 2008, his trade value was limited throughout the summer and again this offseason. We wish the best for Matt and are certainly open to retaining him if we are able to find a common ground with his agent.

Emphasis my own. Note Huntington avoids putting blame on the media this time around. At least directly.

I think they made a mistake, and Capps will be valued relief pitcher somewhere in 2010. Why am I so confident that a pitcher the Pirates had no use for is in line for a good job with another club? First, the list of teams in on Capps is quite long. Second, he's not pitching any better or worse now than he was a couple years ago.

PITCHf/x Indicates Little Has Changed

I realize Capps gave up far more walks and home runs than expected in 2009. Results are results. But what is reasonable to expect going forward? I'm not going to project Capps' 2010 line, but I am going to show you that, beneath the surface, the later vintage Capps (using Huntington's parameters) was just as effective as the earlier version.

PITCHf/x gives us pitch-by-pitch data on what the pitcher threw, how fast it went, where it went and what the batter did with it. Further, within Gameday (which includes the PITCHf/x data), we also get batted ball types and a lot more. PITCHf/x started in 2007, but wasn't in every big league park until 2008. Pittsburgh's system came on line in September 2007. This leaves some holes in the data, so keep that in mind. For the most part, I'm not all that interested in the individual pitches. But my analysis starts there and rolls-up into the top line.

The Basics: Capps is, essentially, a three-pitch guy. Fastball, slider and change-up. He throws mostly four-seam fastballs, but also throws a two-seamer. As noted earlier, he also has a cutter.

For the purposes of this discussion, I'll go with three pitches, lumping fastballs together and cutters with sliders:

Fastball: 92 mph; Slider: 85; Change-up: 87

Nothing earth shattering, a fairly typical arsenal featuring reasonable, but not spectacular, power.

Now that we know what he's got, let's split it up. Huntington alluded to a second half decline in 2008. Capps was out of action for a few weeks after the All Star Break, so we can conveniently split his PITCHf/x data (which starts in 2007, and is incomplete for that year) into "before" and "after", and line-up close enough in terms of sample sizes.

Most of these stats are somewhat self-explanatory, but I'll run them down just in case ... strikes are pitches in a two foot wide zone, based on each hitter's own top/bottom zones. Whiffs are misses per swings, chases are swings out of the zone, watches are takes in it, B:CS are umpire calls, GB/LD/FB/PU are Gameday stringer assigned batted ball types, HR/F+L is simply homers per flies+liners, rv100 are run values vs MLB average (2007-2009) per 100 pitches (negative values being better for pitchers), rv100E is the same thing but using batted ball types instead of actual hits/outs - takes away some fielding and park luck, along with contact quality unfortunatly. Neither rv stat I use is park adjusted at the moment, and AL/NL are not separated so apply a mental penalty to NL pitchers.

	Before (742)	After (1025)
Strikes	.584	.590
Whiffs	.167	.189
Chase	.317	.312
Watch	.337	.352
B:CS	1.8:1	1.7:1
GB	30%	42%
LD	21%	17%
FB	40%	34%
PU	9%	7%
HR/F+L	6%	8%
SLGCON	.506	.581
rv100	-1.23	0.24
rv100E	-0.27	-0.56

One could argue Capps was a better pitcher, with poorer luck, in the supposed down swing of the "After" period.

In case you're wondering, fastball velocity was 93.5 "before" and 94.1 "after". I also split Capps' data into 2009 only and 2007/2008. In that case, the sample sizes were nearly identical, as were the performances.

Where To?

The latest news, as of this writing, is about Capps narrowing down the field of suitors:

[R]ighty reliever Matt Capps' agent, who found himself fielding multiple suitors, said Capps will narrow the list to the five most-serious.

By "serious" I'm assuming multi-year offers and opportunities to close. So far, the Nationals are on the list. Given my own loyalties, I would not be displeased with Capps working set-up innings for the Cubs for the next two years, if the price is right.

J.J. Putz to White Sox, Brings a Little Less Velocity

Harry Pavlidis — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:39:29 -0000

The White Sox just signed J.J. Putz for 2010 at $3 million. They're getting closer turned set-up man. Putz had some elbow clean-up done recently, but I gather there were no structural issues.

Putz used to throw in the upper 90s, which complemented a nasty splitter. And not only were those fastballs very fast (they still are), but he mixed two- and four-seamers. A hot riser and a hard sinker. Niiice. Putz also throws a hard slider (upper 80s) and a slow-ish curve (mid-upper 70s), but not very often -- particularly the curve.

Take a look at his speed charts, going back to 2007 (seasons divided by vertical white lines).

You can see the lack of curveballs at the lowest end of his speed range(s). While Putz did regain some velocity during his abbreviated 2009 season, he has not shown the type of speed he was known for in his prime. Still a hard thrower, still has that effective, bat missing, ground ball inducing spliiter.

Cubs f/x: An Interview with Mike Parisi - Cubs Rule 5 Pick

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:42:59 -0000

Cubs f/x: An Interview with Mike Parisi - Cubs Rule 5 Pick

A Cubs f/x exclusive interview with the newest member of the organization, and rotation candidate, Mike Parisi

Cubs f/x: Updating the Cubs' Center Field Picture

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:37:20 -0000

Cubs f/x: Updating the Cubs' Center Field Picture

Curtis out. Melky and Pods in. And Rule 5 could shake things up on the lower end of the depth chart.

Red Sox Sign Scott Atchison ... Again - Beyond the Box Score

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:54:41 -0000

Red Sox Sign Scott Atchison ... Again - Beyond the Box Score

A wee bit of background and scouting on Atchison.

Red Sox Sign Scott Atchison ... Again

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:30:15 -0000

After pitching for the Giants in 2007, Scott Atchison became a free agent signed a minor-league deal with the Boston Red Sox. The Sox sold Atchison's contract to the Hanshin Tigers and he pitched the last two seasons in Japan.

The Sox signed Atchison today, this time a one-year deal with two options. Looks like decent middle relief.

Back in 2007, Atchison was throwing his fastball just above 90, with a sluttery slider and a curveball. He also threw two change-ups in his 280 pitches captured by PITCHf/x. With the exception of his four-seamer, Atchison got quite a few ground balls. He also threw a lot of strikes, but didn't miss many bats.

Using NPB's pitch tool (PITCHf/x light), it looks like Atchison is throwing the same stuff at the same speeds. That's a handy tool, showing pitch types and speeds (and a little more detail) for Japanese pro ball.

Not a major signing, but interesting based on their past history together, and the fact that Boston could keep the now 34-year old righty for three years, if they pick-up the options.

Cubs f/x: Soft in the Middle: Center Field Options for the 2010 Cubs

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:46:25 -0000

Cubs f/x: Soft in the Middle: Center Field Options for the 2010 Cubs

Hendry better be smart about this one.

Cubs f/x: 2010 Cubs Rookie Bullpen Candidates

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 03:09:11 -0000

Cubs f/x: 2010 Cubs Rookie Bullpen Candidates

Winter is here, let the digital scouting begin.

Take a look at these eight rookies in PITCHf/x:
Jeff Gray, Esmailin Caridad, Jeff Stevens, Justin Berg, Mitch Atkins, Blake Parker, James Russell and John Gaub.

Tim Lincecum's Outstanding and Fatiguing Season

Harry Pavlidis — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:20:56 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Lincecum unleashes a four-seamer

Browse more photos »

Tim Lincecum eeked out his second straight Cy Young on Thursday. While the voting was close and, to some, controversial, he's a deserving winner.

The Giants eeked everything out of Lincecum's campaign, with its 225 innings ranking 3rd in the NL and 8th overall. He didn't exceed his workload from 2008 (by two innings) but he did show some wear-and-tear, starting as early as a missed start in September. That extra rest was needed to recover from back spasms.

Following Lincecum's penultimate start of 2009 (against the Cubs on 9/25), I posted about a sudden drop in velocity, coming in his third start following the brief shutdown.

Should the Giants Back Off Tim Lincecum? - Beyond the Box Score
Zambrano peaked at 96.3, Zambrano was strong, just outside the top third of his peak range. His average fastball speed (93.8, with or without sinkers) was 7th out of 73 starts in average fastball speed (two- and four-seam combined). It was also he best average fastball velocity of 2009. So, there was probably nothing "in the air" that night pushing The Freak's speed numbers down. Lincecum topped out at 94.3 - that's his lowest peak on record. He averaged 91.4 mph. Throw out the two-seamers and he's at 91.6. Out of Lincecum's 77 PITCHf/x starts, that's dead last.

Lincecum's Cy Young campaign had one more stop on October 1. Hardly a stop, seeing how each of his final two starts were in AT&T Park. Another thing that didn't stop was that decline in velocity.

Despite warm weather (at game time), Lincecum's fastball velocity remained sub-par. He throws (at least) two fastballs, which I'm splitting them into "fastballs" and "sinkers". The so-called sinkers just tail more, and occasionally have some more downward movement (actually less backspin or "rise"). Call them what ever you like. Sometimes he sinks the ball a little more and sometimes he cuts it a little, but I'll stick with two groups.

Why the weather and the split of fastballs? I wondered about the effect of pitch selection on the range of speed on his combined set of fastballs, seeing how he threw a few more sinkers than fastballs during the final start. The aforementioned warm weather, meanwhile, can not be blamed for the apparent drop in speed. It doesn't look like the sinkers are to blame, either. They're not a likely culprit to begin with, as they're thrown as hard as the other fastballs.