SB Nation User Blog: Hawerchuk

Evolution of the Shutout Record

Hawerchuk — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:32:20 -0000

Evolution of the Shutout Record

Bruce McCurdy has another great historical piece, this time on how Martin Brodeur got to be the shutout record-holder.

Beating Up on the Little (or Big) Guys

Hawerchuk — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 23:22:45 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Poor Zdeno Chara: can't find anyone his size to hit...

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The question of tall players hitting short players and whether these hits should be called as head shots came up in the SB Nation discussion list. So I started wondering if there are any consistent trends around size differentials in hits. First, there's a league-wide bias: taller players hit shorter players, though the average difference is small - just 1/4-inch. Here's the distribution of heights by hitters and guys who got hit:

This leads to a very slight change in the distribution of height differential in hits:

So are there any players who frequently hit players much smaller than themselves? No big surprises here - if you're really tall, there aren't many other players your size who you can hit!

Player	Avg Diff	Height
Zdeno Chara	8.1	81
Derek Boogaard	6.3	80
Boris Valabik	6.2	79
Hal Gill	6.1	79
Jeff Schultz	5.4	78
Chris Pronger	5.3	78
Alexei Semenov	5.1	78
Andy Sutton	4.9	78
Brian Boyle	4.8	78
Marek Malik	4.7	78
Nik Antropov	4.6	78
Derian Hatcher	4.6	77

None of these players figure on the list of players who hit the tallest opponents on average. Again, this isn't surprising: defensemen are taller than forwards; but defensemen don't typically get a chance to hit other defensemen, so forwards will tend to hit taller players on average.

Player	Avg Height	Height
Jeremy Reich	74.06	73
Anton Babchuk	74.00	77
T.J. Hensick	73.94	70
Jeff Taffe	73.89	75
Fabian Brunnstrom	73.88	73
Chris Stewart	73.86	74
Daniel Alfredsson	73.86	71
Erik Cole	73.86	74
Marc-Antoine Pouliot	73.85	73
Steve Downie	73.84	71

Here's the other end of the list. It's significant to note how small the spread is: it's rare for a player to hit an average opponent under 6-feet tall or over 6'2".

Player	Avg Height	Height
Michael Nylander	72.00	73
Andy Greene	72.12	71
Martin Havlat	72.25	73
Andrew Hutchinson	72.27	74
Alexei Zhitnik	72.29	71
Tobias Enstrom	72.35	70
Brian Lee	72.36	74
Adam Pardy	72.39	76
Niklas Hjalmarsson	72.39	75
Mike Lundin	72.39	74

Just for completeness, here's the list of players who get hit by the tallest average opponent:

Player	Avg Height	Height
Marian Hossa	74.21	73
Max Pacioretty	74.11	74
Patrick Eaves	74.10	72
Colin Stuart	74.09	74
Erik Christensen	74.09	73
Brendan Shanahan	74.08	75
Ilya Kovalchuk	74.07	73
Peter Schaefer	74.06	73
Erik Cole	74.06	74
Rodney Pelley	74.05	72

And the shortest average opponent:

Player	Avg Height	Height
Matt Jones	72.50	72
Jack Hillen	72.55	71
Josef Melichar	72.57	74
Mike Lundin	72.58	74
Thomas Pock	72.62	73
Nolan Pratt	72.63	75
Henrik Tallinder	72.65	76
Zach Bogosian	72.68	74
Sean Hill	72.71	72
Craig Rivet	72.72	74

I'll come back to this in the future and look at weight imbalances in hitting...

The Ugly Canadiens

Hawerchuk — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:28:31 -0000

More photos » by Jeff McIntosh - AP

2 months ago: Montreal Canadiens goalie Jaroslav Halak, from Slovakia, loses track of the puck during first period NHL hockey action against the Calgary Flames in Calgary, Alberta, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jeff McIntosh)

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In their last 12 games, Montreal has been outshot by 67%, or 33-23 per game. Miraculously, they're 5-4-3 in regulation, and they've scored 33 goals and allowed 32. They've managed to do this with a 12% shooting percentage and a 920 save percentage, both well above their marks through the first 21 games - 7.7% and 905, respectively. The Canadiens have had a shockingly lucky season: they won their first eight games in extra frames, and now that their luck has subsided on OT and the SO, they've had a shooting percentage that's way over their heads.

The Leafs, on the other hand, are 7-3-2 in their last 12; have outshot their opponents by 17% (vs 8% for their first 20 games) and have outscored them 41-37. What we see now is a very bunched up set of standings in the East:

Team	GP	W	L	T	OW	OL	SOW	SOL	GF	GA	Reg. WPCT
NYR	31	12	15	4	0	2	2	0	84	91	0.452
TAM	31	8	11	12	2	3	1	6	74	81	0.452
TOR	32	10	14	8	0	5	1	2	93	107	0.438
PHI	30	11	15	4	1	0	2	1	84	86	0.433
NYI	32	7	13	12	4	3	1	4	78	93	0.406
MON	33	7	15	11	4	1	4	2	77	92	0.379
FLA	33	6	14	13	1	2	5	5	82	104	0.379
CAR	32	4	19	9	0	3	3	3	74	111	0.266

The Bettman point makes the standings look a little different, but the 8th-14th teams in the East are all within 4 points of each other. Going forward, what I've shown here is a much better predictor of team performance than each team's "actual" record, and it's highly unlikely that Boston's going to get a lottery pick this season via Toronto.

Contrarian Goaltender on Low-Shot Games

Hawerchuk — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 00:13:55 -0000

Contrarian Goaltender on Low-Shot Games

The recently unmasked Contrarian Goaltender looks at which goalies often face very few shots in a game and why.

Rick Rypien

Hawerchuk — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:33:37 -0000

More photos » by Jimmy Jeong - AP

Vancouver Canucks' Rick Rypien punishes Edmonton Oilers' Zach Stortini during first period NHL hockey action in Edmonton on Monday, Oct. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jimmy Jeong)

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Every once in a while, you see an obvious innovation in a game that makes you wonder why it wasn't obvious to every single player. Rick Rypien of the Vancouver Canucks has brought one to NHL fighting: he actually protects his face while he's fighting. Most fighters in the NHL try to block head shots, but Rypien actually does a great job of it. The net result is that he dominates fighters who are way out of his weight class:

Date	Opponent	Ht	Wt	Dec
12/09/2009	Valabik	6-7	245	W	Video
11/22/2009	Eager	6-3	227	L	Video
11/14/2009	McLeod	6-2	210	W	Video
11/12/2009	May	6-1	220	W	Video
10/19/2009	Stortini	6-3	217	W	Video
10/16/2009	Prust	5-11	191	W	Video
10/7/2009	Gill	6-7	250	W	Video
9/24/2009	Carter	6-1	205	W	Video
9/14/2009	Reich	6-1	204	L	Video
9/14/2009	Sutton	6-6	245	W	Video
4/4/2009	Stortini	6-3	217	W	Video
4/2/2009	Brookbank	6-2	200	W	Video
10/11/2008	Prust	5-11	191	W	Video
10/2/2008	Moore	6-1	200	W	Video
9/28/2008	Sutherby	6-3	205	D	Video
3/17/2008	Carcillo	5-11	202	W	Video
3/4/2008	McLeod	6-2	210	W	Video
2/29/2008	Tollefson	6-2	211	W	Video
10/22/2007	Commodore	6-5	230	L	Video
10/15/2007	Murray	6-3	240	L	Video
12/2/2006	Laperriere	6-1	201	W	Video

	Average	6-2	215
	Rypien	5-11	184

Once you start clicking on those videos, you are almost certainly to waste half an hour of your day watching Rypien pummeling guys who had no idea what they were getting themselves into. In the 21 fights with footage, Rypien gets abused precisely once: when Douglas Murray pulled Rypien's sweater over his head over two years ago. In the last two years, Rypien has not had an NHL fight where he lost convincingly.

Now, Rypien has not yet fought any of the top ten heavyweights (based on the ELO analysis I did of the data on hockeyfights.com), mostly because he hasn't even played a full season in the NHL yet. But it's only a matter of time before he fights someone who also mops the floor with Zach Stortini - it will certainly be an epic battle, and if Rypien prevails, it will validate technical fighting and secure his reputation as an innovator in the NHL. Right up there with Jacques Plante, Bill Chadwick and Frank Zamboni...

What is Glenn Healy talking about?

Hawerchuk — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 04:04:49 -0000

More photos » by Paul Vernon - AP

15 days ago: Calgary Flames' Jamie Lundmark (45) celebrates with teammate Daymond Langkow after scoring the winning goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a shootout an NHL hockey game in Columbus, Ohio, Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009. The Flames won 4-3. (AP Photo/Paul Vernon)

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I rarely watch the Hockey Night in Canada intermission panels, but I was too lazy to change the channel during the Flames-Sharks game on Saturday. What drew Glenn Healy's ire? The Flames didn't use Jarome Iginla in their last shootout. Healy reminded us that Iginla was the "hottest" NHL player in the month of November. Iginla did indeed shoot 27.6% over 14 games, and presumably Healy believes this indicates Iginla's shooting ability has gone way over his career figure of 13.4%. Like the old NBA Jam arcade game, Iginla's temporarily "on fire" and Calgary can't afford to let this ephemeral talent of his slip away.

Let's take the longer view: Iginla is 7-for-25 on shootouts in his career. (The other shooter Healy suggested was indispensable was Stephen Weiss, who's 3-for-18 in his career.) Assuming he saw a set of goaltenders who were, on the whole, league-average, here is the distribution of Iginla's true talent in the shootout:

Not only is Iginla not a lock to score in the shootout, it's fairly unlikely that he's even a better-than-average shooter: the probability of Iginla's true shootout talent exceeding the league average is just 31%. And the probability of Iginla being one of the best dozen or so shooters in the league, at 41% or more? Barely 10%.

So is that a guy who absolutely has to be one of your top three shooters? No chance. Is it likely that Flames coach Brent Sutter picked his shooters based on how successful they were in hundreds of shootouts in practice? Very. Are we better off trusting lots of reps than looking at last month's shooting percentage? I think you know the answer.

Anti-competitive Shootouts

Hawerchuk — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:52:47 -0000

Anti-competitive Shootouts

Over at Puck Prospectus, I lay out a number of reasons why the shootout is anti-competitive.

Checking Back in with the USHL

Hawerchuk — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 01:09:45 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Paul Stastny's path to the NHL was through the USHL and NCAA.

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Two years ago, I looked at how the USHL had gone from producing an insignificant number of NHL players to accounting for almost 10% of the pros in less than a decade. Forget the 'Miracle on Ice' - the growth of the USHL is the most significant success story in the history of American hockey.

I thought I'd take another look at how the USHL is doing and whether it has continued to produce NHL players at such a high rate. The pertinent plots are after the jump...

First, has the USHL continued its seemingly inexorably path to filling the entire NHL with its player? Sure looks that way to me:

What about the USHL's role as the primary feeder league for NCAA D-I college hockey? Still on the same path - the percentage of USHL players making the jump to the NCAA has been increasing (the blip this season is because we're only 30% of the way through the NCAA season and not every player has made his debut). The percentage of NCAA players who've played in the USHL has also continued to increase:

None of this should be in any way surprising - the caliber of USHL players increased dramatically from 1990-2000, and now the sheer number of quality hockey players in the USHL continues to increase.

We don't yet see players jumping directly from the USHL to the NHL like we do with Canadian junior leagues, but by age 21, it's difficult to argue with the results: on a per-team basis, the 12-team USHL produces as many NHL players as the 60-team CHL. Canada has achieved hockey saturation, so the number of players going from AAA Midget or Tier II Junior to the CHL and on to the NHL is unlikely to increase in the near future. The USHL, on the other hand, continues to expand its reach as previously-untapped areas of the country like California grow their youth hockey programs.

All-Time Shutout Leader: Martin Brodeur vs Terry Sawchuk

Hawerchuk — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 09:16:57 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

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When I started following sports more than 25 years ago, there were records that seemed unbreakable to me: Bob Beamon's 29-foot 2.5-inch long jump in the Mexico City Olympics; Roger Maris hitting 61 home runs in 1961; and Terry Sawchuk's 103 career shutouts. Beamon's record lasted 23 years, Maris' 40 years, and barring unforeseen circumstances, Sawchuk's will fall this season after 46 years to Martin Brodeur.

Setting records like these requires a perfect storm: an athlete has to hit his peak performance at exactly the right time - Beamon would have set the world record regardless with his jump, but being at 7200 feet above sea level in Mexico City propelled him even further; Maris was 26 and coming off an MVP season in 1960, so his power explosion was not unexpected, but the AL's talent dilution in the 1961 expansion helped his cause. And Sawchuk had the good luck to break into the NHL just as it was entering a prolonged period of low scoring.

Let's look at how many NHL games have ended in shutouts since 1945...

The relationship between league-wide scoring rates and the percentage of shutout games is almost perfect. (Indeed, the r^2 is 0.81.) When Terry Sawchuk played his first NHL games during the 1949-50 season, NHL offense was dropping dramatically and would stay low for a decade. Shutouts spiked to a ridiculous 13% of all games in 1953-54:

Sawchuk got himself most of the way to the record by 1956: he racked up 65 shutouts in his first six full seasons, and had to hang around for another 14 years to pick up the next 37 (he had one in his 1949-50 call-up). Brodeur, on the other hand, made his debut when shutouts were at an all-time low; it wasn't until his fourth season, 1995-96, that league-wide offense had dropped sufficiently low for him to start racking up shutouts. At age 26, he still trailed Sawchuk by 30, but from ages 27-35, he had 65 shutouts to Sawchuk's 31.

So when Brodeur gets his 104th shutout, does that finally make him better than Sawchuk? I think it's instructive to look at each goalie's shutouts relative to the rest of the league. This table shows the number of shutouts Brodeur and Sawchuk had at each age compared to how many shutouts the average goalie (excluding them) would have had in the same number of games:

Age	Brodeur	Sawchuk
19	-0.15
20		0.32
21	0.89	5.80
22	1.11	7.80
23	2.59	2.29
24	6.20	3.84
25	4.91	7.36
26	-1.09	2.43
27	2.05	-0.47
28	3.66	-3.80
29	-1.50	0.63
30	3.95	1.80
31	5.31	0.36
32	1.54	2.26
33	7.55	0.94
34	-0.98	-0.05
35	3.14	-1.44
Total	39.19	30.08

As you can see, Brodeur has outclassed the average NHL goaltender well into his 30s, while Sawchuk was basically at league-average by Age 26. It's difficult to compare 1951-52, when half of the league's goalies played every minute of their team's games, to the modern era - with almost all of the NHL's six goalies in any given season now inducted into the Hall of Fame, it's possible that the average goaltender was simply better back then. But with Europeans and Americans joining the game in large numbers in the 1990s, it's difficult to argue that the NHL wasn't proportionately better than it was 40 years earlier. Brodeur's accomplishment - both overall, and in his peak years - absolutely eclipses Sawchuk's.

Leafs and Habs watch

Hawerchuk — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:50:59 -0000

More photos » by Paul Chiasson - AP

12 days ago: Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Joey MacDonald makes the save off Montreal Canadiens' Mike Cammalleri as Leafs' Lee Stempniak, right, helps defend during the third period of an NHL hockey game Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2009, in Montreal. The Leafs blanked the Canadiens 3-0. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Paul Chiasson)

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When we checked last week, there was still an argument that the Leafs might be worse than the Canadiens. Toronto's regulation winning percentage was better than Montreal's, but the Leafs goal differential was worse. Heading in to today's games, this is no longer true:

	TOR	MTL
W%	0.393	0.345
GD/82	-53	-54
W% Rank	26	29
GD/82 Rank	26	28

Ricky Bobby's dad might have said "If you're not first, you're worst..." but moving up to 5th-worst is an accomplishment for the Leafs. In the offense and defense department, Toronto has also moved up a bit in the world, while Montreal's goal-scoring has slid even further.

	TOR	MTL
GF/60	2.75	2.24
GA/60	3.39	2.90
GF Rank	16	30
GA Rank	27	19

Toronto's at home this week to Atlanta, the Islanders and Washington, with a road trip to Boston in the middle. Montreal plays Philadelphia at home, takes a pseudo-road trip to Ottawa, returns home to play Pittsburgh, then heads to Atlanta for a Saturday game. These schedules are roughly even - Toronto has an extra game at home, but Washington seems to be a better team than Pittsburgh. In the universe that is the 50th percentile of possible outcomes, Toronto should edge just slightly closer to Montreal this week.