The Rockies don't always have great timing when it comes to optimizing trade value.  That's not easy, but often they hold onto guys too long to see their worth erode -- and sometimes teams make hasty decisions and give up a player too soon.

Now might be the time for Holliday to be dealt.  As a fan, I actually would like to see them pick up another inexpensive starter to help this team finish out the year and give these guys another shot at late-season heroics since they've gotten some new life recently, but the way things are developing now makes me think that this might be the best time to get the most for Holliday if they are going to end up trading him anyway this winter.  The less time he would have with a trade partner (if dealt this winter or especially next July), the lower his value may go.  Right now he can help someone like the Red Sox with two playoff chases at least.  Beyond that, the opportunities seem to be shrinking.

The Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees are teams that often pop-up in Holliday discussions for future deals because of their resources and use for a big bat in pennant runs.  There are other teams too obviously where he could ultimately go (including staying right here as fans cross their fingers), but some of those windows might be closing a bit today.

If Boston moves Manny and gets a replacement OFer today, that might take the most likely destination out for us (although last word was that the proposed 3-way was dead).  Other than the two front offices squabbling in the past, Holliday to the Red Sox next year as they replace Manny makes a lot of sense with the BoSox having some young players the Rockies would like and saw some of them first-hand in the Series as they helped bring us down.

If Bay became a Red Sox to finish out the year, maybe Holliday still works his way to Boston this off-season with Bay coming to us as he would not cost as much and be something of a reasonable replacement the franchise could use for justification.  But Boston may get their long-term Manny replacement already today if he’s traded as both sides want there and not be in the Holliday bidding next winter.

The Yankees are always a possibility for great players who are going to get great contracts as they can afford it more than most.  However, they are shifting away from dealing prospects, and more likely to go out and sign CC Sabathia for their big splash instead of giving up a ton of prospects and cash for Holliday.

The Angels recently got their big bat that was missing in Mark Teixeira, and I think probably make a long-term commitment there -- especially if things go well this October for them together.  Maybe they go after Holliday next winter too, but adding a Teixeira isn't really their style and they are more careful with their prospects in that respect.  I don't know that they would give Teixeira a monster deal and follow that right up with doing the same for Holliday at a great prospect/contract price.  Teixeira might be their big dollar addition to the lineup for now.

So the Rockies might be well advised to jump in and try to replace the Pirates in that discussed 3-way deal that would send Manny to Florida and Bay possibly to the Red Sox.  Surely Holliday would do a better job for them in replacing Manny's production and be a bigger long-term fixture.  The Rockies could get themselves 3-4 talented prospects, many of whom might even be ready to help now or next season. 

Hermida would be a solid young MLB OF replacement with some potential still who could be part of the core here if/when healthy.  SP Ryan Tucker and/or OF Michael Stanton could be other possibilities from the Fish along with seeing if we could get an Ellsbury (since he's down a bit this year and fans would love to see on the other side from the Series) or young pitching prospects from the BoSox for an MVP type bat in the prime of his career.

So I think now might be the best time to sneak into that deal and get the most for Holliday before we find out we waited too long again.  However, maybe it wouldn't be so bad to wait if the Rockies never find what they are looking for in a Holliday deal and just bite the bullet to sign him otherwise.  That would make a lot of fans happy.  For me personally, I think they can find offense overall here without creating another Helton-type deal that may hurt us down the road and would rather see that spread around a bit.  If they also think that or are convinced that they can't sign him, then they ought to give the Red Sox and Marlins a call about replacing the hesitant Pirates and getting their load of youngsters now while they are to be had before it might be too late.

Like everyone I had mile high madness last Rocktober, but the hangover is hitting most everyone (especially the players) hard now.  As June's amateur draft approaches and we are nowhere to be found in the top 10, it is actually a nice reminder of how different last season was.

There will be a handful of power-hitting 1B taken in the first round as the most well stocked area of the draft. If a good one slips to the Rockies, that player could legitimately be seen as the heir apparent there unlike other 1B prospects from the past who were more likely to be trade bait. I could see a 1B falling because it isn't traditionally where many teams focus when looking at first round athletes and arms with upside.  Despite having Helton, the team has also frequently picked 1B bats and moved them to other positions (Atkins/Hawpe) and could find a better bat at that lower first round pick this year than might usually be expected.

Anybody can fall in the largely unpredictable MLB draft, but Hosmer, Smoak, and Alfonso are probably the best and probably wouldn't get to us. Garrett Atkins-ish Brett Wallace is usually listed after those guys so could possibly last despite being mentioned in several places ahead of us including the 8-spot sometimes. Wallace's teammate Ike Davis may well be there because of an injury and inconsistencies but was having a very strong offensive season also and good power potential.

I'm just a fan but these days we can all pretend to be scouts, or at least have more informed opinions about players we've never heard of before.  There are tons of sites out there.  Minorleaguebaseball.com has some great information and video on most 1st round possibilities, and BaseballAmerica of course is always all over the draft. I don't think most of the players linked to us by BA will be there for us (Odorizzi, Hewitt, and Castro who might). If picking a catcher, I like the Roockies looking for bigger bat potential there in our park and Brett Lawrie would be the fit there for that if he was still there.

With our young pitchers having some trouble this year, you could also understandably see the team feeling they need to reload there and increase their depth to create more options down the road if some questions don't get resolved. You never need a reason to pick a pitcher in the first round anyway.  Usually you don't see great starting prospects slip unless it is because of signability which would put us out of it anyway. Gerrit Cole has that high potential and velocity, but likely isn't a match because of the baggage and signability concern. They'd be more likely to take a lower-ceiling innings eater type college arm there low in the first round I would think, but Ryan Perry seems like he could be a nice pick for us who could be a fast rising reliever or take it slower learning to be a starter with top of the rotation type potential who can get good sink on the ball.

An interesting choice who feels a little like other athletic Rockies CF picks (some potentially good like Fowler but most bad) could be Anthony Gose who will have a longer path to the majors but upside as either a speedy OF or hard throwing lefty.

Jemile Weeks may be a good positional fit for a leadoff 2B or CF who could probably move up the system quickly and fill a couple needs in one shot.  If they don't pick Weeks, I'd like them to take a flyer on Brandon Crawford in the 2nd round who was thought to be a possible high first round SS talent coming into the season but fell off this year who could possibly line up next to Tulo in the middle infield down the road.

Picking so low it's hard to put your money/hopes on anybody because who knows who will be there, but at this point before knowing more about those players as the draft hype approaches, I'd be pretty happy with Wallace/Davis or a good bat who falls to us, Lawrie if he could stay behind the plate, Weeks for positional/lineup slot, or Ryan Perry on the mound and I think most of them have a good chance of being there.

If I had to say one of them now and not just rely upon someone great landing in our lap, I'd probably lean conservatively toward Ryan Perry today (who BA has going 29th in their early mock draft) and get him going down the path toward seeing what he could potentially do as a starter.  I read an article where he admires Papelbon and ideally could develop into someone like that with some flexibility to use in either a starter or reliever role.  He hasn't been pitching very long (not at all in high school and had a motorcycle accident in college slow him) but seems to have the tools to possibly dominate if he puts things together.  And if that just wasn't going to come together as a starter (as it didn't for him this year as he moved to the pen and his confidence/stock rose) he profiles as a strong relief prospect where we always need arms and is usually critical to our team success generally. 

If there isn't some arm that they really love who lasts til their spot, I think they have pretty good odds of landing a very useful bat even picking low this year. Then we can talk about 2009 and having a higher selection again...

The big Tulowitzki contract will obviously be viewed as a very positive move by the Rockies fanbase that already loves Tulo and was skeptical ownership would invest to keep guys like him, but there are some points to the contrary also that suggest we may have jumped the gun here unnecessarily.

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