SB Nation User Blog: Hobbes2d

Nyjer Morgan = Adam Dunn??

Hobbes2d — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:26:17 -0000

I wanted to post this last night, but there's a really good article (and consequently debate in the comments) on comparing the relative value of offensive sluggers who are poor defensively like Adam Dunn, to defensive specialists who bring little value with the bat like Nyjer Morgan. I figure it's a pretty apt thing to look at given all those who think the Giants need to add a bat like Dunn or Jermaine Dye so badly, while ignoring the kind of value that a player like Randy Winn brings, and that in most circumstances Winn is more valuable then most slugging OF'ers, or at least has been in past seasons.

One thing I think is really interesting also, is the debate over defensive metrics as a whole, as they certainly are not what one could deem being an exact science. Whereas offensive value and stats/metrics etc are a little more clear cut and easy to understand.

Anyway, here is the link and a little blurb for those that haven't already read it. I left out most of the meat, which is where Cameron breaks down their strengths in offense, baserunning and defense and talks about where they each are valuable and by how much etc.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/morgan-dunn

Hitting: Dunn, +45
Baserunning, Morgan, +4
Defense, Morgan, +35

Total: Dunn, +6

The gap between Dunn and Morgan, going forward, is expected to be about half a win per season if you use conservative estimates of their respective defensive value.

I’m sorry, but there’s no way that the response from the sabermetric community around these two moves matches that reality. If paying Adam Dunn $10 million per season to be a +2.5 win player is a good idea, then paying Nyjer Morgan $400,000 to be a +2 win player is a great idea. There is no world in which Dunn’s production and salary is more valuable than Morgan’s production and salary. You could acquire 100 Lastings Milledge’s for the amount of money that Dunn is getting to be the big, power hitting equal of Morgan.

There’s just no way around the real conclusion - the sabermetric community, for the most part, has a blindspot when it comes to players with defensive skills at the extremes of the spectrum. Given the cost differences, Morgan is clearly a more valuable asset than Dunn, yet his acquisition is mocked while Dunn’s is celebrated.

Baseball is not just about who can hit the ball further. It’s time we stopped evaluating players on their offensive worth alone.

I can't stop dreaming about V-Mart

Hobbes2d — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:44:16 -0000

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/30/SP3818FPG4.DTL

TRADE CHATTER: Giants scout Paul Turco was seen at Monday's White Sox-Indians game, possibly looking at Cleveland first baseman Victor Martinez, whom the Giants are thought to admire.

It's probably too good to be true and they were really scouting Konerko or Dye, but man I'd love to get V-Mart. He's got another year left on his deal for 2010, he can play C and 1B pretty adequately. He's also already been a 3.1 WAR player for Cleveland. I'm guessing the Giants could get him without having to give up Mad Bum or Posey. Hopefully we'd keep Big V too.

I'm guessing Alderson, another decent prospect and a bullpen arm or two could get it done.

He would look awful nice hitting 4th behind Pablo. Also we could platoon him with Bengie, which will help Bengie be more effective with time off. Sadly Ishikawa wouldn't play as much, but I'm sure they'd still find ways to get him AB's and make him a defensive replacement late in games.

Vs LHP you could have Bengie catch, with VMart at 1st.

Vs RHP you could have VMart catch and Ishi at 1st.

Or something like that. What do you guys think?

Josh Willingham

Hobbes2d — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 01:38:47 -0000

He seems like a name that has gone largely unnoticed or talked about in terms of being someone the Giants should go after.

He has missed some time this year and still already has 9 HR's, his walk rate looks like it would be the best on the team at 14.1 %. He also is better than I expected defensively. He's around league average in LF, and he also would give us a RH stick to put in a lineup primarily filled with LH or SH's. He also can play a little first base and came up as a catcher, so he could be the team's 3rd catcher if need be. He seems to have durability issues, but his power numbers have been slowly increasing over the past 2 years. He would probably be a cheaper buy than Nick Johnson, and I think we'd be able to keep him longer then just this year.

PANDAMANIAAAAAA!!!!!!!

Hobbes2d — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 07:15:54 -0000

I'm sorry but I can't say enough about Pablo Sandoval. His season and quick development is the reason why all teams (especially the Giants) should invest heavily in Latin American baseball. Build academies in countries, sign as many kids as you can. There is just so much talent oozing out of that area that it's just awesome. And to have a player with his kind of enthusiasm and love of the game and love for competitiveness is just infectious to not only his teammates but for the fans too. It reminds me of when Miguel Tejada was coming of age for the A's in the early part of the decade. This combined with his late power surge is just awesome. Kid's OPS is now .913, just 2 pts behind Hanley Ramirez and Hunter Pence. And 5th best among all qualifying 3B in the majors. Those ahead of him: Wright, Longoria, Mark Reynolds and 5 pts behind Chipper Jones. Ahead of Ryan Zimmerman, Casey Blake, Feliz etc.

Aren't you glad we didn't take a gamble on Joe Crede's back now?

Sandoval would even be top 8 in ML 1B as well in OPS. Better than Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Todd Helton and others. Like Nick Johnson and Adam LaRoche.

All hail the Panda!

via img.photobucket.com

If someone had told you in the off-season...

Hobbes2d — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:07:00 -0000

that on June 15th, the Giants would have the 3rd best record in the National League, and the 7th best record in baseball, what would you have said? How about that the Giants would have allowed the fewest runs in the entire league, despite Jonathan Sanchez struggling this season.

In all seriousness though, shouldn't we be a little happier with how the season has gone? It seems people are a little too pessimistic or bitter of past seasons. I mean shit, this team is performing WAY better than I would have expected given some of the offensive failures that have happened so far. The bullpen is much improved, the starting pitching for the most part has been stellar, and we even have seen a rebirth from Aaron Rowand. Pablo has been every bit as good as advertised and made Giants baseball tons of fun to watch on a daily basis. When Schierholtz plays he provides some excitement. Juan Uribe has been 100x better than Jose CastiLOLo as a utility infielder.

This team is contending over the first 2 1/2 months of the season and I'm not too sure they even need to do all that much to improve their chances either. Maybe it could be an internal solution, like John Bowker, or a small trade for an infielder. Either way this year has been really exciting and with the improvements and development of some of these prospects in SJ, Connecticut and Fresno, there is lots to like with the Giants future now, to what it looked like just 6 months to a year ago.

Anyone else think the Strasberg hype is a tad ridiculous?

Hobbes2d — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 21:42:34 -0000

OMGZ! BEST! PITCHING! PROSPECT! EVAR!!!

He throws 102 MPH!!!! His curve is filthier than Lincecum! He would be a team's #1 starter right nowz!

I mean I don't have a strong feeling about Strasberg one way or the other, but the hype is starting to get really nuts. Granted the numbers are impressive and his stuff and all that. But the hyperbole being used to describe him is really disconcerting and almost makes you WANT him to fail so that they can just shut up about the guy, which is sad really that that happens.

Does anyone out there feel he isn't worth the hype and might end up being a colassal bust? Either with some kind of proof or gut feeling? I mean we all saw what happened to Mark Prior. And when you're talking about pitchers NOTHING is ever certain. They can pull a Steve Blass, or they can pull a Zito, or they can get hurt all the time. Or even go the Jeff Allison route and become a hardcore drug user. I'm sure Scott Boras will trick the Nats into paying him 50 mill though, they seem pretty desperate.

Next to 300

Hobbes2d — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 07:56:44 -0000

Everytime someone gets their 300th win, we hear the same old bs that that person is going to be the last guy to ever win 300 games. Now while it might be awhile (10 years or so) until we get anyone who comes close again, I think it's stupid for someone to say that it won't happen again. With that being said, I do think one of the following players will end up winning 300 games. Who do you think has the best chance to do it? Or do you think it will be someone who hasn't even played in the majors yet and it might be longer then 10-15 years before the next 300 game winner?

Here are some names of some guys who I think have the best shot, starting first with guys who are in their late 20s to early 30s and who have a lot of wins, and then a list of younger pitchers who if they get into a really consistent groove could end up their one day.

The consistent winners:

Roy Halladay (32) 140 wins

Roy Oswalt (31) 131 wins

Javier Vazquez (32) 131 wins

Mark Buehrle (30) 128 wins

CC Sabathia (28) 122 wins

Johan Santana (30) 116 wins

Carlos Zambrano (28) 99 wins

Josh Beckett (29) 95 wins

Jake Peavy (28) 91 wins

Brandon Webb (30) 87 wins

Dan Haren (28) 69 wins

Young guys:

Felix Hernandez (23) 44 wins

Justin Verlander (26) 52 wins

Zack Greinke (25) 42 wins

Matt Garza (25) 23 wins

Jon Lester (25) 31 wins

Matt Cain (24) 37 wins

Chad Billingsley (24) 42 wins

Tim Lincecum (24) 29 wins

Yovani Gallardo (23) 14 wins

Or none of the above?

Dirty Sanchez

Hobbes2d — Sun, 31 May 2009 22:36:40 -0000

*Please note that this is not a reactionary "TRADE SANCHEZ" post.* I am just curious as to the fellow McCoven's views of Sanchez. I for one, find him to be a talented left handed pitcher, but I also find him to be very expendable and highly overrated by many Giants fans. People seem to think he is some valuable asset. Yes, normally LHP's who throw in the low 90s fastball, good slider and high K rates are rare and very good to have, but not so much when they fail to find the strike zone consistently. I for some time have thought that Sanchez should be the kind of prospect or pitcher that we can form a deal around to get a decent younger hitter. Although lately I'm wondering if he can even return something like that with the continued meh pitching performances.

So my questions for you are: What do you think Sanchez's ceiling is? Do you think he is capable of being a ML starter? Or will his command ultimately force him to become reliever? And last but not least, would you trade Sanchez? Or do you find him to be an important piece to the GIants future?

I myself think he's a poor man's Oliver Perez at best. Although I find he might have higher upside if thrown into a set-up role or even as a closer. But even then I have doubts about his abilities to throw strikes consistently in a closer role. So perhaps middle relief/set-up like Affedlt was forced to do in KC after failing as a starter.

WTF?! Giants linked to Peavy?!

Hobbes2d — Fri, 29 May 2009 07:50:42 -0000

To be honest I'm quite perplexed...although if we ever did get him we would destroy the Dodgers in head to head matchups with him and Timmy....

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/stark-on-peavy-oswalt-phillies-derosa-giants.html

The Padres' recent winning streak has not changed their intention of trading Jake Peavy. The Dodgers and Cubs are in Peavy's first tier of choices, follwed by the Giants, Cardinals, and Astros. The Angels would be the one AL team he'd consider. The East Coast is a long shot. Also, Peavy will want his 2011-13 partial no-trade clause to become a full no-trade. Peavy's friend Roy Oswalt has been unsuccessful in lobbying Astros owner Drayton McLane, as the 'Stros can't take on Peavy's contract. As for the Dodgers, GM Ned Colletti told the L.A. Times he hasn't talked to the Padres about Peavy since the pitcher vetoed the White Sox deal.

And then there was this tidbit as well for potential bats we have supposedly discussed....

The Giants seek a middle-of-the-order bat, and Jonathan Sanchez is being dangled. Three targets they haven't had success on are Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and possibly Carlos Lee. Lee, according to one Stark source, doesn't intend to waive his no-trade for anyone.

Joe Mauer

Hobbes2d — Sun, 24 May 2009 01:30:47 -0000

I think he deserves his own fanpost. Ever since being activated by the Twins he has been on fire, with the best stretch of his career. After going 3-3 with 1 BB against Milwaukee today, Mauer is .429/.516/.844 for the year. He also has 9 HR's already , which is only 4 off of his career high. I always have been waiting for him to hit with power and now he finally is with 5 in his last 9 games. Guy is just a natural and very fun to watch. Even cooler for Twins fans is that he was a homegrown superstar in everysense of the word. Just like Barry was for us. I just hope we can somehow get some positional player to come up through the ranks within this decade, it's going to be pretty demoralizing to continue to watch these great pitching performances get wasted year after year because we have a bunch of guys who can't hit. Almost makes one wish we could continue to suck and try to get the #1 pick in Bryce Harper's draft year.