SB Nation User Blog: Home Run Tony Cogan

Exclusive: Reactions to Kendall signing

Home Run Tony Cogan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:44:49 -0000

HRTC: "Hey honey, did you hear that the Royals signed Jason Kendall?"

Mrs. C: "Wait, didn't he already play for us?"

HRTC (racking brain trying to think of connection; perhaps somehow she knows that Fred Kendall was our bullpen catcher or something like that? No, way to obscure for her): "No, he's never played for us".

Mrs. C: "Yeah, he has that porn star mustache."

HRTC (somewhat incredulous): "Do you mean Jason LaRue?"

Mrs. C: "Yeah, that's who I was thinking of."

HRTC: " No, not him."

Mrs. C (long pause): "Oh...Jason Kendall. Isn't he really old?"

Early projection on 2010 Royals roster

Home Run Tony Cogan — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 05:50:17 -0000

Because I know we can't wait to see who's going to be suiting up for the boys in blue next year, I went through and mocked-up a preliminary roster for the Royals in 2010.

This roster still needs a RF, 5th starter, and LOOGY. I estimated arb awards and have $64.5 million spent thus far. So, assuming our payroll is no more than $75 million, we've got about $10 million to burn. Here's what I've come up with:

Player	Pos	Salary

Buck, John	c	3,000,000.00
Butler, Billy	1b-dh	500,000.00
Callaspo, Alberto	2b	500,000.00
Gordon, Alex	3b	1,000,000.00
Betancourt, Yuniesky	ss	3,375,000.00
DeJesus, David	lf	4,700,000.00
Maier, Mitch	of	500,000.00
TBD	of
Guillen, Jose	dh	12,000,000.00

Bloomquist, Willie	2b-of	1,700,000.00
Ka'aihue, Kila	1b-dh	400,000.00
Getz, Chris	2b	400,000.00
Pena, Brayan	c	500,000.00

Greinke, Zack	rhp-s	7,250,000.00
Meche, Gil	rhp-s	12,400,000.00
Bannister, Brian	rhp-s	2,000,000.00
Tejeda, Robinson	rhp	1,000,000.00
TBD	p

Soria, Joakim	rhp	3,000,000.00
Cruz, Juan	rhp	3,250,000.00
Farnsworth, Kyle	rhp	4,500,000.00
Hochevar, Luke	rhp-s	1,000,000.00
Rosa, Carlos	rhp	400,000.00
Lerew, Anthony	rhp	400,000.00
TBD	lhp

Buyouts (net)		725,000.00
		64,500,000.00

I am assuming that Aviles and Fields start the year in Omaha and that Davies is let go, saving about $1.5 million. Colon is gone. Internal options for the 5th spot include Campillo and I guess Davies if the $1.5 mil can't be spent better elsewhere. I think Hooch needs to go to the bullpen where I believe he'll be more effective. If not, send him back down to AAA and pick up somebody cheap. Needless to say, I don't think this team is very good and maybe would win 75 games, IF Meche and Bannister are healthy. If not, we're basically fucked.

One possible scenario would be that Callaspo takes over as the primary DH, but then what happens with Guillen? I can't imagine him being back in RF next year, but I can't imagine them just flat-out releasing him either. I hope that line of thinking doesn't lead them to part with Callaspo b/c he's one of our best bats and would be a positive contributor at DH.

Another scenario might be that Getz ends up going to AAA and Callaspo backs up 2nd and 3rd while DHing, and Guillen also plays DH and occasionally fills in in RF. Not ideal, but better than playing him there every day.

In either scenario, it seems unlikely that Kaaihue would get much PT. Cutting Guillen would solve a number of problems, but I say let him DH, hope that he rebounds and if he does, trade him for anything then bring up Kaaihue. If he doesn't rebound, you cut him and then bring up Kaaihue. Thoughts?

Boston Teabag Party?

Home Run Tony Cogan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:11:55 -0000

Boston Teabag Party?

On 810 this morning, they reported that Buster Olney was giving some serious run to some Mark Teahen to the Red Sox rumors. Any thoughts on what might come back?

Also, does this mean that Theo Epstein is merely the greatest GM in baseball history, or the greatest executive in the history of capitalism?

Big changes a comin'?

Home Run Tony Cogan — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:11:42 -0000

After watching today's game and listening to HCMM's postgame comments, it seems that there could be big changes on the way for our Hawks...The offense is flaccid right now and it seems that the main problem is the total inability to run the ball. So, are changes coming for the O-line, and if so, who?

Todd Reesing hasn't looked like himself most of the year save for the Iowa St. game and he seems to be regressing. Besides the fact that I think he's hurt, he holds the ball way too long instead of just getting rid of it. Unless he can't go, I can't see him being replaced, but he does need to get rid of the ball quicker and stop taking so many negative plays.

The defense seems to be coming around some, but is it enough? We had a huge turnover advantage earlier in the game and still couldn't really capitalize because the offense was so inept. With the offense the way it is, the defense needs to be lockdown solid to give us a chance to win, and they were for 3 quarters today but they need to do it for the whole game.

Next up is KSU who has been getting better as the season has gone on, while we seem to be getting worse. Can we win in Manhattan? Sure, but if we play the way we've been playing then we're going to get destroyed.

This team just hasn't come together this year like we would have hoped, whether because of injuries or inexperience or coaching. The schedule hasn't helped, and while we could argue that we are only one game worse than we thought we might be at the start of the year, the truth is that this team seems to be miles away from winning a game.

I won't pretend to have the answers, other than taking better care of the ball and improving the running game, what can we do? And what are our goals now? I think the North is all but out for us with the problems we've got, so are we just hoping to squeak out one more win and get to a bowl? Would one win even be enough?

At this point, I think we just hope to beat our rivals and just be happy with a 3-year bowl streak, to send Meier and Reesing out on a high note.

Posting chart from excel

Home Run Tony Cogan — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:06:08 -0000

Posting chart from excel

posting a chart-does anyone know how to post a chart into here from Excel?

A glimmer of hope, maybe?

Home Run Tony Cogan — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 03:27:51 -0000

A glimmer of hope, maybe?

Watch what they do, not what they say, but still this is at least mildly encouraging.

What will it take?

Home Run Tony Cogan — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 18:39:24 -0000

Obviously most people are very down on DM right now...however I would venture to guess that everybody (even d_f and will) could reach a point where their opinion of him would change. This post is NOT meant to cheerlead for DM or lay out why he is a good or bad GM...I have been fairly consistent in stating my position on him.

So, what I wanted to throw out there is what in my mind DM MUST do in order to redeem himself this offseason. In turn, I'd like to hear from others, especially those who are most down on him, on what DM can/must do in your eyes to turn things around. No snark please, give me your honest assessment of what it would take for him to redeem himself in your eyes. They may be specific moves or more of a noticable philosophical shift that you can point to, but I'd like to hear them.

Here are mine:

1. Fire Trey Hillman and/or Dave Owen. Despite what he has said, I still hold out some hope that DM will evaluate Trey's two seasons here and determine that he is not the man for the job. Maybe it doesn't happen until early next season, but I think it needs to happen soon. Ironically, one could argue that by not firing Hillman, he is at least indirectly admitting that he hasn't given Trey the bullets he needs to be successful. Canning Owen would be an acknowledgement that he's been a horrible 3rd base coach and has contributed mightily to our historically bad baserunning.

2. Put his money where his mouth is when it comes to OBP. This could take a number of forms, from non-tendering Jacobs/bringing up Kaaihue, making Betancourt a backup, installing Pena as the primary catcher, making more trades to bring in OBP guys, whatever.

3. Show a real commitment to upgrading the defense. Some of this is going to be hard to do given the coexisting need to upgrade OBP, but this needs to happen as well. The biggest and most obvious places to do this are in RF, SS and C. However, given current roster restraints, improving OBP and defense is going to be tough. If you put B. Pena at C, he presumably solves a big part of the offense/OBP side of the equation but I sense that his defense is really suspect. Move Guillen to DH? That presumably improves the defense but I don't know if it improves our on-base problem. My preference for DH would be a platoon of Guillen and Kaaihue.

4. Upgrade the bullpen. I think this could actually be accomplished fairly easily and cheaply with some internal options such as Rosa and others. If it doesn't work, at least you're not paying them a ton of money. Guys like Jamey Wright, John Bale, and Roman Colon for the most part need to be gone.

5. A farm system AT LEAST in the top 10 per BA. We were 11th per BA going into 2009. I need to see continued improvement. This is really out of DM's hands at this point, but signing Aaron Crow and some savvy trades could help. Really, with the spending like a drunken sailor, I would expect a top-5 farm system very very soon.

6. Release Jose Guillen. I have really shied away from naming specific moves/players because there's no way for me to know the entire universe of players and what could be had in trade. But admitting a mistake by releasing the $12 million man I think would send a huge positive message. Maybe the fact that DM has gotten a contract extension would make it easier to do this, I don't know. I do know if it happened it would be a positive sign that DM is re-evaluating the way he does things.

So, there's a lot here, and although I didn't really specifically list it out, the implication from the above is that DM is going to have to change the way he looks at things. I don't know that all of these things need to happen, but most of them do. If not, then you'll be able to add me to the list of those ready to move on.

The end is nigh

Home Run Tony Cogan — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 03:39:06 -0000

The end is nigh

We will look back on 2009 as the season that baseball began it's slow, painful death in Kansas City.

Anatomy of a trade(s)

Home Run Tony Cogan — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 03:35:28 -0000

I wanted to do a little analysis of some of the differences between the Royals' path and the A's as it pertains to some of the trades that each team has made over the past several years, just to demonstrate how much this particular aspect of the organization has hurt the Royals over the past several seasons:

First, a sampling of what Billy Beane has done:

Mark Mulder-1st round pick in 1998. Traded in 2004 for Kiko Calero, Daric Barton, and Dan Haren. While Calero is long-gone and Barton hasn't made any impact, the A's got several outstanding years of Haren, and then traded-

Dan Haren, traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Brett Anderson (minors), Chris Carter (minors), Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith. Anderson and Eveland are still a big piece of the A's future, Cunningham is currently on the team although not performing well (only 23), and Gonzalez and Smith were traded-

Gonzalez and Smith traded along with Huston Street for Matt Holliday. The A's got 1/2 of a year of Holliday's services and then traded-

Matt Holliday for Brett Wallace, who is a top prospect in AAA and also expected to be part of the next A's core.

So, for Mark Mulder the team ended up with 2 pitchers and 2 hitters who are all projected to be a part of the core of the next generation of good A's teams. The point is, that the trade of a single good player drafted 11 years ago is still producing results for the A's, both now and into the next several years.

Let's look at a couple of Royals' trades for reference, shall we?

Johnny Damon-35th pick in 1992. The Royals got several productive seasons out of him and then traded-

Damon and Mark Ellis! to the A's for Angel Berroa, AJ Hinch and Roberto Hernandez. Other than a RoY campaign in 2003 from Berroa, the Royals ended up with jack squat. Meanwhile, Damon has gone on to win a WS ring and continue to be one of the better hitters in baseball, and Mark Ellis has been a fixture at 2nd for the A's for several years.

Not convinced? OK, how about this?

Jermaine Dye-acquired via trade for Michael Tucker. Had several productive years with the Royals, including an All-Star campaign in 2000, and then was traded-

For Neifi Perez. Enough said, let's move on.

I could do the Beltran trade, but we all know how that one's turned out. I could also mention the Appier trade (D'Amico, Rigby, Stein) or David Cone (Sinnes, Medrano, Stynes) but that would be piling on.

What is the point? The point is that while Billy Beane has made trades that have continued to help his team, the Royals are STILL digging out from trades of the few productive players they had for NOTHING. Trades that were made several years ago can and do have a very lasting impact on an organization, both good and bad. We are still seeing the negative impact of this series of historically bad trades in KC. It's not going to get fixed overnight.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Home Run Tony Cogan — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 04:22:45 -0000

Does any of this sound familiar?

What is the main difference~~$$$~~?