When PB passed me a link to this story, I read the headline and thought: "Oh, one of many undefeated teams in college football is listed as #1 by a computer after two data points.  Ho hum."  After reading the "journalism" attached to that headline however, I feel that a bit of a response is warranted - If only to put up something for the reasonable among us to point to when the dentally-impaired among us begin their standard refrain of "LOUD NOISES" at the appearance of any potential ammunition against the BCS.

One of the big problems with public debate and opinion is that some very vocal participants are unwilling or unable to realize that an argument's objective soundness is not a function of its support or refutal for their side of the argument (i.e. There may exist stupid arguments that support your opinion and smart ones that refute it).  One side of that failure (not listening to smart arguments against you) is exactly the reason we have "issues" instead of "solutions" in the majority of popular topics in the media from the serious (politics, religion, football, etc.) to the trivial (politics, religion, football, etc.).  The media is no better than the information it carries, and has grown into a machine for fanning the flames in these futile debates with stupid arguments in favor of one side or another, and the tone of this article and the careful choice of facts within it is a perfect example.  This kind of journalism is like the fire department gifting free oil lanterns to the night shift at a grain elevator; they're just looking for work.

I see some of us have already indicated the appropriate response to this story, but I'd like to take this opportunity to point out what's really going on with the Colley Matrix.  This is not an indictment of the Colley Matrix or any other BCS computer poll (this is).  In fact, I would say that the Colley Matrix is one of my favorite computer polls for a number of reasons.  In fact in fact, I will be saying that right after the jump, so put away your pitchforks, douse your torches and click ahead.

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I met up with GoBR at Thursday night's open practice at DKR-TMS and focused mostly on the offense and the competitive passing drills.

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Driving through the Arizona desert in the rain was the final disappointment  of the trip.  The visibility was low and what could be seen was mostly just a dark sillhouette against the fog, so there are no pictures from today.  It wasn't the best end to the road trip, but I did get to wrap up my In N Out trials with suggestions from some of you, and my focus is turning more and more to tomorrow's game.

We ate lunch at an In N Out somewhere in the desert, and per The Other Andrew's request, I tried the double-double animal style.  It was definitely much better than the regular version, and its uniqueness definitely gives it what it needs to be someone's favorite burger.  The fries were exactly the same, though, so I don't think I caught a bad batch the first time.  I'll back off calling In N Out average, but I still don't understand why people are so obsessed.  P-Terry's beats it in just about every category in my book, knock-off or not.  I don't have a moral food conscience that makes a P-Terry's burger taste worse just because they modelled their business after another company.  What I have is a tongue, and it tells me that P-Terry's tastes better than an In N Out burger.  Plus, P-Terry's tastes good without having to know the secret password.

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Day 2 didn't begin with nearly the same efficiency as Day 1.  Yesterday I woke up at 5:30, brushed the teeth, threw the girlfriend and her bags into the car, complained that no one had taken the back seats out before piling all of their crap on them, hit the ignition and we were almost to San Antonio by the time the girlfriend re-awoke.  That's efficiency.  Today began two and a half hours after the girlfriend turned off my alarm because I didn't notice it first.  We had a nice Mexican breakfast of huevos rancheros for me and chicken and bean nachos for her at about noon before finally crossing the border into New Mexico at light-speed.

Once we noticed that we had crossed the border (When the mile markers jumped to 160-something.  New Mexico had no welcome sign unless you count the "Speeding fines double, Safety Zone" signs that accompanied us all the way to Las Cruces.), light-speed immediately gave way to one mile an hour over the speed limit.  I figured cosine error would give me that one mph back and keep the taxmen police off my back.  Double speeding fines for what?  To keep people from careening off of the highway trying to avoid the swarms of police?  That was the straightest, smoothest piece of highway we'd seen since we left Houston.  The speed limit could have comfortably been 100, but New Mexico has decided that rather than an insincere "Welcome to New Mexico, Drive Fast and Keep Your Head Down!" sign, the best way to show their appreciation for our tourism is with a personal thank you card from one of New Mexico's finest.  I didn't get a ticket this time because of my cunning strategy of driving the speed limit, but I was still lucky to avoid one of the 75 to 35 with a cop waiting at the sign speed traps by staying mostly on I-10.  Anyone who has yet to get to NM, be careful.

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Halfway between Houston and San Antonio on the Road that Goes Forever, as I cursed myself for not having anything to write since Texas got the final BCS shaft, I decided that I would make good use of the plethora of hours I had at my disposal while my girlfriend took her turn at the wheel.  Since many of you aren't attending the game, and I'd imagine the vast majority of those who are attending will be traveling to Scottsdale at 36,000 feet, I feel like it's my duty to at least give you all an idea of what you're missing on the ground.  1,000 miles of I-10 to cover in the next three days, and you're riding shotgun with me.  Along the way, I'll talk about the bowl games from the previous day and any that happen to be coming in on my stunningly low-tech terrestrial radio that somehow slipped past my nerditude and countless Christmas and birthday wish-lists.  I'm also on a mission, and that mission is to see Brutus Buckeye cry a real tear through all that felt.  So I'll make sure to bring it all back to the game at hand by the time I pull into my hotel for the night and upload the day's diary.

Oh, and pictures of stuff.  There will be pictures of stuff, too.

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Email, to be exact.

And you're lucky, too.  In my nightmares, where I receive actual paper mail, this guy is always waiting for me at the mailbox to hand me my letters personally.  Yeesh to say the least.

Hi,
I got so mad about the BCS that I made a video about it (from the Longhorns perspective)...


It’s kind of funny.

-Bobby

Kind of funny?  More like my new anthem.  Oh, and if any of you are having a bit of writer's block trying to pen that perfect letter to the Big 12, may I suggest:

Dear Dan,

I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore.

Sincerely,

A couple more emails after the break...

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Well, we did get fooled.  We were tricked into thinking we had a shot to stay ahead of OU, when the computers had us doomed, doomed, doomed long before the Cowboys gave up that last touchdown run in garbage time.  Still, we came much, much closer than most of you realize.  We were behind OU by one rank in both the Sagarin and Wolfe systems.  Reverse those two and we'd be headed to KC.  Sigh.

Anyway, don't completely give up hope, because there's still a chance - and it's a heck of a lot better than a Lloyd's chance in Mary...

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Since the ilk of OU absolutely refuse to be persuaded by reason, I'll have to counter with an irresistible force - Trashy 80's music videos with lyrics that were written by Dr. Sbaitso and the MS Word Thesaurus.  To you, OU and punditry, this is Simply Irresistible.

How can it be permissible (1)
She(2) compromise my principle(3), yeah yeah
That kind of love is mythical(4)
She's anything but typical(5)

She's a craze(6) you'd endorse(7), shes a powerful force(8)
You're obliged to conform when there's no other course(9)
She used to look good to me(10), but now I find her

Simply irresistible(11)

(1) This is exactly what we've been saying this whole time.  (2) She = OU, in case you haven't figured that out yet.  (3) Regular season is a playoff, head to head on a neutral field, decide it on the field, etc.  (4) Mythical National Championship.  That's what "love" means in this weird thing I'm doing here.  (5) Becaues typically if one team beats another and each have similar resumes otherwise, you put the head-to-head winner on top.  (6) I'll give you that.  (7)  Bob Stoops would endorse, but not me, or even Mark Schlabach (FotB).  (8) This only applies for 2.5 quarters against teams with fast defensive linemen.  (9) Which is not to say there is no other course.  Look around, do you see a gun pointed at your head?  No?  Then vote for Texas, because it's illegal for OU to hire someone to kill you.  (10) "Playing the best football in the country" will do that for you, unless you lose to Texas when everyone is saying that about you.  (11) Except in BCS Bowls.

I'll actually say things that make sense after the break...

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"Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone

For the times they are a-changin'."

At this point, it's becoming obvious that the waters have grown around me (meaning that the average standard deviation is well below my prediction, based on the past five years or so).  I'd better start swimming (adjust my model) before I sink like a stone (lose credibility... yeah right).  For the times they are a-changin'.

More prophetic deciphering after the break...

Also, be sure to check out PB's take on the Muschamp hire below.

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Not a whole lot is shaking out in the polls this week, at least as far as my pet project is concerned.  Even our old friend Billingsley is merely tied for most throwouts this week (with Anderson and Hester, the poll that Huckleberry from BC says was created to prove Washington was better than Miami in 1991.).  I'd like to take this opportunity, then, to go into a little more detail than I normally do with RB's ballot, just to show you how systematically unfair the program is, even when it doesn't stick out like the sore thumb it is.  In light of the added emphasis on the psychopath who thinks that the Longhorn fans who hated him last year on the "message boards" love him now, we'll skip the poll analysis and dive straight into Billingsley Report Card.

(Don't worry, we'll get back to the poll analysis later if you're on the edge of your seat ready to adjust your picks for this week's pool.)

Huzzah!

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Sigh... Late again. -HB

Last week I said the polls were pointing to a close game in Jacksonville and a Texas win in Lubbock, and I was wrong both times, though just barely on the latter.  Bring it on, Red Raider internet users (technical major graduates), but I'm saying Texas played like crap and we still had to hand you back the game in the final seconds after we let it thump us in the chest.  I suppose my spreadsheets can't account for how beat up a team gets after playing three top 12 teams in a row.  Coming off a blowout or a bye-week, Texas wins in Lubbock, and we're all bragging on how good our farts smell.  I guess that's just the way the wind blows on the plains, though.

Stuff you don't read anyway after the break...

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Not late this time, but not exactly early. -HB

Tomorrow looks like a divisional-champion elimination round for the SEC East and the Big 12 South.  Texas could sneak in despite a loss to Tech, but it would require Tech falling to both OSU and OU (or screwing themselves against Baylor).  Georgia, Florida, and Texas don't seem to have much in their way after Saturday, as long as they keep their wits about them down the stretch.

Don't confuse the two games, though.  Penn State will tell you that the winner of the Florida Georgia tilt is irrelevant unless you think one of these teams is more likely to knock off Alabama in the SEC championship game.  Assuming Penn State finishes out their schedule unbeaten (Likely but not assured by any means), each weekend that passes without Texas or Alabama going down is a nail in JoePa's (as a football coach, mind you) coffin (Yech, for some reason that sounded like something an Aggie would say).  Texas has two high hurdles (Tech and a likely rematch with Mizzou), one water hazard (Kansas), a wrinkled rug (Baylor), and a points-up dirt rake (unlikely, but boy would we look stupid if we hit that one just right...) to go.  Alabama has a bunch of cruddy SEC teams (I'll get to you later, LSU) and then the championship game.  So when JoePa reads the tea leaves in the BCS numbers waiting for the annoying Big Ten season to end, what does he see (aside from brains, which he just sees anyway)?

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Due to an unforseen dump taken on me by some superiors, this is just a little late.  I'll have this week's BCS Breakdown up before the end of the week, and we'll be on schedule from there. -HB

It's been a long wait for some of you, but I've finally returned with my spreadsheet to make shutting off your brain at work just that much more difficult.  One day a week you'll find yourself minimizing your Excel documents, pulling up Burnt Orange Nation, and looking at mine, which is exactly what you want.  OK, you say, I get it, cut to the numbers.

That would be easy, but all in all, too easy.  First, I would like to point out that there potential advantages of writing this breakdown after the week's games have been played.  I can look at the data for a team and compare it to their game this week.  Maybe we'll glean a little knowledge as to whether the polls can point out over/under-rated teams to us beforehand.  It's a good idea, but we'll have to check it out first, and so, on to the madness...

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What almost was...

Yes, that's Colt down there in Solomon Gundy's wake.  This was a game that everyone thought we'd have to give away to lose, and we nearly did, though not by the mechanism in which we were worried about, exactly.  I'm sorry, Mack, but you don't get to say you told us so, because if you had really thought that OSU was going to be one of the best teams we'd face all year, then we would have come into the game with something approaching the creativity and preparation that we saw for OU.  Instead, our game plan was to completely abandon the run game and put as much pressure on Colt as possible in a scheme with two big weeks of film out on it.  If we had a mortal at QB, we'd have scored about ten points in this game while OSU named their score against our ragged-tired defense that had to play 40 minutes of possession.  Look again at PB's third down chart, and then take a look at the play-by-play.  Notice a trend?  Colt McCoy (and Jordan Shipley) dragged our butts through this game.  It's decision time for Davis:  Gamble that Colt continues to out-perform almost every quarterback in history for the remainder of the season, or figure out a way to get him some help.

The rest is after the jump...

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