SB Nation User Blog: Horn Brain

Blog Poll Draft Ballot: Week 10

Horn Brain — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:13:44 -0000

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Alabama	1
3	Texas	1
4	TCU
5	Cincinnati
6	Georgia Tech	3
7	Boise State	1
8	Pittsburgh	4
9	Iowa	3
10	Miami (Florida)	4
11	Oregon	4
12	Houston	1
13	LSU	2
14	Southern Cal	1
15	Ohio State	2
16	Oklahoma State
17	Penn State	7
18	Arizona
19	Utah	2
20	South Florida	3
21	Wisconsin	3
22	Virginia Tech	3
23	Brigham Young
24	Oregon State
25	Nebraska
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Notre Dame (#19), Oklahoma (#20), California (#22).

Rationalizations of my anti-puppy-ism after the break.

Well, everyone send a thank you card to Stanford (or Oregon's defense, if you prefer) for removing from the discussion table that epic debate we had last week.

Florida - Beat LSU more convincingly than Alabama, in my opinion.
Alabama - If the SEC were another conference, maybe the LSU game doesn't turn out that way. Either way, it's enough for them to pass Texas, thanks to the disaster that is the Big 12 outside of Texas.
Texas - Insignificant slot-swapping.
TCU - Novel coaching strategy #37: Have your offense and defense play well at the same time.
Cincinnati - Or just your offense.
Georgia Tech - Yes, I know that they barely beat Wake Forest, but this more of a reconsideration of their position than anything.
Boise State - Oh, mew mew mew, my schedule isn't my fault, give me a pity berth in the BCS, please!
Pittsburgh - Wannstache's career trajectory curve would make a great roller coaster.
Iowa -

Miami - Another reconsideration jump. Miami has some big wins and has only lost in overtime and in Blacksburg.
Oregon - Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? "Well, we still have some quality wins, I suppose."
Houston - Moving up because other folks lost. Period.
LSU - The two best losses in the country, but zero quality wins.
USC - May have better wins than LSU, but the losses are terrible in comparison.
Ohio State - Finally gets a good win.
Oklahoma State - CUPCAKES MAKE SOLOMON GUNDY STRONG FOR NEXT FIGHT!!! RRRR!!!
Penn State - Lost to everyone who's any good.
Arizona - YOU LIVE IN A DESERT!
Utah - Growing strong on the tears of higher ranked losers.
South Florida - Likewise.
Wisconsin - I'll have to same as USF, with some cheese fries.
Virginia Tech - I feel like they're benefiting from being #25 last week (I know they are, actually) Suggestions?
Brigham Young - Won't lose enough games to just stay dead.
Oregon State - Sometimes I go shopping through the "others receiving votes" lists and pick out a team that strikes me as not awful.
Nebraska - Defense is dominating. Offense relies on being so inconsistent that they luck into a couple of big plays a game.

The dropouts all lost.

So, what hallowed law have I stomped on this time, loyal BON-izens?

[Update by Horn Brain, 11/08/09 9:55 PM CST ]:

Click para mas grande.

The graph shows a teams expected ranking based on their total points in each of the polls (data points) compared to the points a team would earn if it got every vote for the ranking it currently occupies (red line). For example, if Texas got every third place vote from every human and computer, it would fall exactly on the red line at location (3,3). In reality, we are a little higher than expected. The reason I did this this week was to point out that everyone after Georgia Tech is just a lot closer than their published rankings would appear. Also, there is a significant drop from Texas to TCU.

Just thought you would enjoy.

Blog Poll Submission: Week 9

Horn Brain — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 07:59:47 -0000

Boy do I have a treat for you guys:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Alabama
4	TCU
5	Cincinnati
6	Iowa
7	Oregon	3
8	Boise State	1
9	Georgia Tech	2
10	Penn State	5
11	LSU	2
12	Pittsburgh
13	Houston
14	Miami (Florida)	3
15	Southern Cal	7
16	Oklahoma State	2
17	Ohio State	3
18	Arizona	4
19	Notre Dame
20	Oklahoma	3
21	Utah	3
22	California
23	South Florida
24	Wisconsin
25	Virginia Tech	9
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#19), South Carolina (#21), Central Michigan (#24), Mississippi (#25).

You'll notice Oregon still ahead of Boise State. More on why I hate puppies after the jump...

Numbers 1-6 and 9-25: You don't care. Except maybe that I did drop Oklahoma State a few more spots owing to their lack of a really good win.

Oregon vs. Boise State: Let's look at the relative resumes of Boise and Oregon.

Boise State has beaten: Oregon, ???, and Fresno State? Maybe?

Oregon has beaten: USC, Utah, and California

Honestly, Fresno is just thrown in as a joke. Oregon is the only team that Boise has beaten that even sniffs my top 25, while Oregon is 3-1 against my ballot, with a very impressive set of wins over the two Cal teams. Add to that the fact that watching the Oregon-Boise State game made my stomach make angry sounds, and it's bye-bye Broncos. Look, don't argue with me about how their resumes are close and so head-to-head should be the tie-breaker. Their resumes aren't close. If I could, I would put two or so teams in between these guys, but I can't justify moving Oregon over the other undefeated teams. Think of the rankings as # 6.5 Oregon and # 8.5 Boise State. Oregon just doesn't deserve to be above Iowa, Cincy, or TCU, all of whom have at least two mentionable wins and no losses.

Really, Cincinatti probably should be the lowest ranked of that bunch, but I give them a bump over Iowa based on their ability to actually win games before the fourth quarter (even with their backup qb, which I find amazing). The Bearcats' coach should be on the top of the list for any major programs on the market this offseason. If Weiss loses another game, he may get a call from South Bend (unless, of course, Charlie's contract wasn't kidding about "as many years as your waste size in inches, and as-many-cheeseburgers-as-you-can-eat-right-now millions of dollars per year").

Poll

Horn Brain most hates:

Blog Poll Draft: Week 9

Horn Brain — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:47:39 -0000

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Alabama
4	TCU
5	Cincinnati
6	Iowa
7	Oregon	3
8	Boise State	1
9	Georgia Tech	2
10	Penn State	5
11	LSU	2
12	Pittsburgh
13	Houston
14	Oklahoma State
15	Miami (Florida)	2
16	Southern Cal	8
17	Ohio State	3
18	Arizona	4
19	Notre Dame
20	Oklahoma	3
21	Utah	3
22	California
23	South Florida
24	Wisconsin
25	Virginia Tech	9
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#19), South Carolina (#21), Central Michigan (#24), Mississippi (#25).

Like Lucy, I got some 'splaining to do.

Florida - Will to win, people.
Texas - Will to kill Colt McCoy's chance to regain ground in the Heisman race by never letting him play.
Alabama - Thank God there was no mediocre SEC team to bludgeon with field goals this week.
TCU/Cincy/Iowa - Everyone gets a ribbon
See above
See above
Oregon - Whole new team
Boise State - Couldn't beat Oregon now, doesn't have the same resume.
Georgia Tech - Just moving up over USC and I've rethought my position on LSU.
Penn State - Come to think of it, Lions don't look that bad.
LSU - I just don't love you anymore.
Pitt - Has won some games.
Houston - Has a couple of pretty good wins and a pretty bad loss.
Okie State - Best offense we've faced all year. If they can win out, the BCS is not impossible.
Miami - Is a team that plays football. Has not lost as much as many other teams.
Southern Cal - Won't win the PAC-10 this year. But hey, they beat Notre Dame!
Ohio State - Tressel shows that he can still be a dick to teams that won't beat him anyway.
Arizona - One of the few teams ranked in the lower part of my rankings not to lose last week.
Notre Dame - The Irish will continue to climb until Jimmy Clausen's last pass comes down.
Oklahoma - Did something no Texas team has accomplished for 6 years: Beat Kansas State.

The rest - Are irrelevant and basically random.

Tell me I'm wrong.

Blog Poll Week 8 Final Submission: I'm No Burger King

Horn Brain — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:31:07 -0000

So you all can't have it your way.

Rank	Team

1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Alabama
4	TCU
5	Cincinnati
6	Iowa
7	Boise State
8	Southern Cal
9	LSU
10	Oregon
11	Georgia Tech
12	Pittsburgh
13	Houston
14	Oklahoma State
15	Penn State
16	Virginia Tech
17	Miami (Florida)
18	Utah
19	West Virginia
20	Ohio State
21	South Carolina
22	Arizona
23	Oklahoma
24	Central Michigan
25	Mississippi

Why, oh why? After the break...

After looking over my ballot again with my brain below 100 degrees Fahrenheit, I noticed a few irregularities:

Cincy and TCU are close, oh so close. I almost couldn't pick between the stingy Frog defense and the brain on coach Kelly of the Bearcats. I think I ended up picking TCU because what the hell is a bearcat?
My top 3 are staying the way they are because the defense and special teams of all three are tremendous, and I'm just ranking the offenses based on body of work. Sure Texas has scored more points, but putting up an effective 10 points against Colorado (17 minus the 7 they gave to CU on the fumble) and crapping out 16 against OU despite being gifted with great field position multiple times makes me nervous. The explosion against Missouri was, I think, a vein of fool's gold. Missouri was playing 12 to 15 yards off of all of our receivers on almost every play, and they were still taking their first step BACK after the snap. There were several times when Colt just never looked over at poor Fozzy standing at the line about 15 yards from the nearest defender when we needed about 3 yards. In fact, I think that's how we got into that fourth down where we ran the fake punt. Davis either continues to call plays with no external input or Colt is being lazy with his reads or both. I don't expect a similar explosion against OSU, who flat out-schemed us defensively last year in Austin. Sure, you could say something similar about Florida's offense, but as a Texas fan on the internet, I reserve the right to crap on Greg Davis. It should have been in the Bill of Rights.
I just can't imagine Iowa continuing to win. They are a ball rolling up a hill, which has just stopped at the top. They are in unstable equilibrium and it won't take much to send them rolling off one way or another.
Boise beat Oregon beat Washington, USC lost to Washington. USC beat Ohio State. LSU should maybe switch with Oregon. Should Oregon and USC switch places? This is why I hate voting. We'll find out this weekend, though, so lucky us.
Why doesn't Georgia Tech's quarterback get tired after halftime anymore? Is he on some kind of Tour de France cocktail?
Pittsburgh: way too high. But they're putting up good numbers. Their biggest tests await.
Houston beat Oklahoma State, but man do I want to shaft them for losing to UTEP.
The rest isn't worth defending. You could vote a myriad of different ways justifiably. I will say this, however: Yes, OU would probably beat a lot of the teams after Georgia Tech. That's why they're the only 3-loss team that even sniffs the top 25. Quit telling me to put them in the top 15. They can get back there by winning out and being 9-3.

Berate and belittle me as you wish.

BlogPollin' Week 8 Draft: Ballot Fever Edition

Horn Brain — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:10:03 -0000

Peter has asked me to take over Blog Poll duties for the foreseeable future. Aside from basically guaranteeing BON the "Mr. Manic-Depressive" award for the biggest swing from week-to-week, it means I'll be needing your help to point out my horrific oversights while we get this process started. Add to that the fact that my brain is on "simmer" from what I think is my third case of Swine Flu in a month, and your criticisms are appreciated -- HB.

Rank	Team

1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Alabama
4	Cincinnati
5	TCU
6	Iowa
7	Boise State
8	Southern Cal
9	LSU
10	Oregon
11	Oklahoma State
12	Penn State
13	Georgia Tech
14	Houston
15	Virginia Tech
16	Utah
17	Pittsburgh
18	Miami (Florida)
19	West Virginia
20	Ohio State
21	South Carolina
22	Oklahoma
23	Central Michigan
24	Arizona
25	Mississippi

Desperate attempts at self-justification after the break.

Top 3: Texas sits at number two because the offense has finally shown signs of life. Alabama certainly has better wins overall, but the more and more dismal showings from their offense won't allow me to hold in my head the thought that Colt and co. couldn't outscore them. Florida is #1 because of WILL TO WIN!!! Though I was unimpressed with Tebow's two blown tackle attempts.
Top 10: Southern Cal doesn't get as much credit from me because they're too inconsistent. Early in the year they were winning with defense, now their defense is swooning and they're riding the arm of a true freshman. That only gets you so far in a season. The undefeated teams are definitely up for debate. LSU and Oregon are tied.
I don't have the energy to explain why the muddle-gump below #10 exists the way it does. Give me a good argument and I'll be listening.

So there it is. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go puke my guts out.

BCS Breakdown 2009, Week 8: Upset Bear Roams the Landscape

Horn Brain — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 03:17:48 -0000

Welcome to the (belated) first edition of this year's BCS Breakdown. In this episode, I'll mostly be throwing out the first week's data for you to digest, as well as reminding everyone just what exactly it is that we're looking at, here. Look for a more polished version in the coming weeks, as I adjust some of my standards to accommodate changes due to the addition of last year's BCS data. For now, though, it's just madness as usual...

Outliers Watch -OR- Upset Bear Can Smell Your Indecision:

This part of the Breakdown focuses on the latest BCS poll and what it's trying to tell us. To extract a little more information out of the polls than what is obvious from a glance, I take the standard deviation of the rankings assigned to each team by the various polls (Harris, Coaches, and the 6 computer polls) and compare it to a curve fit to the average standard deviation of the team ranked in that position based on the past several years of BCS numbers.

That's all well and complicated, but what exactly does it mean? Well in order to make my posts more accessible to everyone, I've decided to give the formerly named "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" a new moniker, as well as a mascot that everyone can recognize. In order to understand this, it's best to explain what exactly I've taken this metric to mean before I introduce the mascot.

The metric formerly known as "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" is a measure of the general confusion surrounding the proper placement of a given team on a ballot. The higher it is, then the bigger disagreement amongst the polls. Since the humans tend to agree (with whatever the AP said last week), and the computers tend to agree, I find that 99% of the time, the value of this ranking can be explained by comparing the computer average ranking to the human average rankings of the team in question. I view the metric itself as more of a "flag". It means something unexpected is more likely to happen than normal. For an example, imagine a common scenario in which a traditionally strong program and an upstart have the same record going into their game against one another. The humans have the traditional favorite ranked much more highly, while the computers prefer the upstart due to their tougher schedule. This conflict of rankings produces a high "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" which sends up a flag to me (and you, devoted reader). I analyze the data and decide that the computers are right, the upstart has better proven itself and appears to be the better team. I bet on the upstart to cover the spread, and the pick 'em league is mine.

Hopefully that made sense to you, but in case it didn't, the "Delta from Expected Uncertainty" will now be called the "Upset Bear Scent Factor" or UBSF. It is a pungent and unmerciful stench that can draw the ire of its namesake upon even the most proud programs. It is something to wash oneself clean of at any opportunity. In this light (and because Ultra Horn refuses to suggest anything else w hen I ask for his input, "What? Is it bad or good? Well then make it a bear or something!"), I give it a mascot, whom we shall call Greg the Upset Bear.

It is clear to you now that this is a bad thing, and more of him can only be more bad. With that in mind, let's look at this week's Upset Bear Scent Factor.

Click to enlarge

Mmm. The perfume of an Upset Sow's urine is strong this week. Indeed, the Texas Longhorns are its main source. All is well, though. This being the first official week of the BCS, I don't know how our UBSF has changed, though I'm sure it dropped precipitously due to the computers jumping us up several places (I had heard we would have been #11 in the computers if the BCS had come out a week earlier, we're #7 now). Besides, this week Greg (the coordinator, not the displeased grizzly) has assured us that the offense will contain much less QQ and much more pew pew. If that doesn't reassure you (and if you don't take a twisted pleasure in letting your hopes shatter week after week, it doesn't), then please take comfort in the fact that Greg's (the bear this time, although I'm not so sure just the bear) natural enemy is one Will Muschamp.

As far as the rest goes:

Florida doesn't have a very high UBSF, even that high in the poll, because it's just too early in the year. Once the race has settled down to the final few games, a blip like that will be significant. As for now, if Florida gets beaten in Starkville, it will just be because they're cursed there.

Iowa and USC show up on my radar. A quick glance shows that they are bizarro-level opposites. The humans love USC (because how could you not, man?!?!), and hate Iowa because of their dirty, dirty, bad wins. The computers are the flipside, probably owing to the fact that they can't see the two blocked field goals that saved the Hawks' butts against a directional school. USC is not very good. They went down to the wire against the Irish, and they don't trust their quarterback. Iowa is not very good. They went down to the wire against Northern Iowa, and I can't name one guy that plays for them.

Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Mormon State all have a case of computer coodies (how the hell do you spell made up words?). The humans still like them because they beat up John, the bully from Mrs. Thurdman's class, before everyone found out he had some kind of degenerative neuropathy that enfeebled him to a shell of his former self. Though I don't know which team that would be for Penn State, since they haven't really played anyone outside of Iowa. Maybe they're just the cute girl everyone writes notes to in class but pulls her hair at recess?

Billingsley Report Card -OR- Wait, HIM again?

Yes, our dear friend Billingsley still ranks teams based on whatever metrics he feels like will put together a list of teams that looks "like it should". And yes, the BCS is still using that as 1/6th of the computer section of the poll that determines who plays in what multi-million dollar bowl game. And yes, I will continue to point out his utter ineptitude at every possible opportunity until he is removed.

The computer polls have the highest and lowest ranking for each team thrown out before they are averaged. I've begun keeping track of this as part of my ongoing quest to discredit Billingsley. If you look at the long term, RB actually averages being thrown out more than half the time!

So Billingsley got thrown out the most (tied with the Colley Matrix, actually, but Colley is expected to be a little weird this early on. He usually levels out towards the end of the year. Go to his website and read his entire formula if you're a dork interested). He also had by far the highest standard deviation from the rest of the computers. No big surprises. That's just how this section of the Breakdown works.

So I hope you all had a little fun. As I said, when the poll starts to settle down in the coming weeks, the UBSF will start to be more indicative of which team(s) you can expect to blow chunks against a supposedly inferior opponent. Until next time...

Upset Bear is Upset... and Watching...

"I bet you if I had met him [Trotsky] and had a chat with him, I would have found him a very...

Horn Brain — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:16:27 -0000

"I bet you if I had met him [Trotsky] and had a chat with him, I would have found him a very interesting and human fellow, for I never yet met a man that I didn't like."

Will Rogers never met Bob Stoops.

OU Sucks

This was a great trick play that capped Clemson's 21-0 disaster in the first quarter. Sorry for...

Horn Brain — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:22:06 -0000

This was a great trick play that capped Clemson's 21-0 disaster in the first quarter. Sorry for the video quality. GT WR #8 Thomas either comes into the game at the last second or just never steps off the field when the offense runs off (more likely). This seems like it's right on the edges of the rulebook. Someone who knows more about the rules on illegal shifts and substitutions should explain.

Another thing that makes this play so great is that GT just scored on a fake FG punt by Clemson (which was just so so stupid). Clemson ended up tying the game but they would have won if not for those two absolutely brain-dead touchdowns.

'Twas the Night Before Football

Horn Brain — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 04:38:38 -0000

by Harry Cabluck - AP

It's ~~Christmas!~~ Football!

View full size photo »

‘Twas the night before Football, when all through "Dis Howse!"

Not a creature was stirring, because the grass got ripped out.

The jock straps were hung by the lockers to air

With hopes that St. Crotchrot would no longer be there.

The fan base were nestled all snug in their beds

While visions of turnovers danced in their heads.

And Greg Davis in his sweatshorts and Mack with a Mack-clap,

Had just gone to the board to draw up a smooth inside trap.

When out on the field there arose such a clatter,

Mack sprang from the chalkboard to see what was the matter.

Away to the sidelines he flew like young Fozzy,

Flicked on Godzillatron and yelled for the Field Nazis.

The LCD adverts, with their capital-driven glow

Gave the luster of game-day to objects below.

When, what to Mack's wondering eyes should arise,

But an orange blocking sled, and eight suited-up guys!

With a man with a visor, so pumped and so amped,

Mack knew in a moment - it must be Muschamp!

Like wild hyenas they took sound angles to their prey,

And he swore and he shouted, and called them by name!

"Now, Kindle! now, Houston! now, Thomas and Gideon!

On, Norton! on, Roddrick! on, Williams and Keenan!

Do the disguised fire zone! Now swarm to the ball!

Multiple! Multiple! Be multiple, ya'll!

He sprang on the sled, and blew the hell out of his whistle,

And into the night the D carried their general.

But Mack heard him exclaim, as he flew out of sight,

"Bring me the head of one quarterback Saturday night!"

Muschamp is ready for football season. Are you?

Things I've Said Colt McCoy Can't Do

Horn Brain — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:46:00 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

You wanna bet I can throw a football over them mountains?.

Browse more photos »

Colt McCoy has proven you wrong.

Yes, you - Fan who called for Chiles to split time with McCoy at the beginning of 2008. And you - guy who complained about Colt not being athletic enough to draw attention in the zone read game - wow were you wrong!

But don't blush, we've all been wrong when it comes to Colt, even his fervent supporters. Even as I've always rooted for McCoy to pull through and prove the doubters wrong, I don't think even the most optimistic among us (limiting our scope, of course, to those capable of predicting anything other than three straight Heismans and National Championships for every player) expected anything even approximating what Colt has become. I thought it would have made a nice story if he could just be a part of a great season - drive the bus, so to speak.

Now? Hell, I don't even think Uncle Rico's self-perception could have done some of the things Colt's pulled off.

The fact is: There isn't a person on the planet who's expectations weren't absolutely obliterated by what Colt McCoy has become. Don't be that guy and try and explain how you saw this in him all along, watched him dominate 2A football and you could just tell he was going to be one of the best ever - Bull crap. Even the most legitimately optimistic among us would have laughed if I told them that Colt would break the all-time season completion percentage record (with a high probability of breaking the career mark after this season), or if I told them that Colt would need only 11 wins in 2009 to become the winningest QB in college football history. The whole situation here is just unreal.

So on the eve of Colt's next "Shock the Nation" campaign, follow the jump as I look back on everything I ever said Colt couldn't do...

Colt McCoy Can't Work in Our Running Game

Pocket Passer. Pro-Style. Statue. White.

Everyone had their own way of saying it, but it all meant the same thing: Not Vince. Vince's mere presence was enough to delay the arrival of the gap defenders as they held back a split second to double check that #10 wasn't on his way to the end zone before killing the options for the tailback, but Colt was a liability. Colt would never get backer or an end to so much as turn his head on their way to flooding the available gaps for the running back. Something was going to have to change, we all thought. The love affairs with the I-formation and a John Chiles spread option game began soon after Texas fans realized that there would be no 1,000 yard rusher in 2006. Colt would serve well, many thought, as a compliment to the featured running game.

Wrong: Colt McCoy shows some wheels in the midst of his ridiculous streak of excellent games to start 2008, finishing the season as the top rusher, all while delivering gems like the Truck Stick against Rice, the Don't Mind Me quick snap and race around the corner for a score against Arkansas, and - coolest of all - the Pirouette in the Fiesta Bowl. While we didn't have a banner year for running the ball as a team, Colt was hardly to blame (replacing a TE with Jordan Shipley or our worst blocking offensive lineman didn't help, and much of the rest is just inconsistent line play). If the line play improves satisfactorily, I don't think there will be much whining about the running game this year (except, ironically, about the fact that our running game now relies too heavily on Colt. Ha!).

Colt McCoy Can't "Start" Our Offense

This was actually one of my favorite opinions. Thought it up all by myself. It came about after a few games in 2007, when it became clear that something was very wrong with the team. Forgetting the defense and special teams disasters, the offense was just ugly to watch. It looked like Greg Davis had decided that Colt McCoy was going to be the featured player in our offense. The problem was, Colt didn't appear to have superior athleticism, arm strength, accuracy, or really anything special about him that was going to give us an advantage. The result was a mediocre offense that worked in fits and starts, but was wholly unreliable and (to put it in coachspeak) inconsistent. The idea that Colt couldn't be the featured player in our offensive scheme arose from my attempt to build a schema encompassing Colt's stellar freshman campaign with his sophomore season that was... well... sophomoric. Hear me out:

In comparing the 2007 offense with an approximate ideal (say, 2005), it seemed like what 2007 lacked (early on) was an elite component that could almost impose its will on the defense. Vince Young and the running game were going to be successful against your defense until you threw just about everything into stopping him, and when you did that, VY was going to throw a touchdown to Limas Sweed in the corner of your end zone for the winning score. That's the simplest way to put pressure on the defense: Be so ridiculously good at one thing that the defense can't worry about anything else. Once the defense shows its hand, then you know exactly what the corresponding best strategy is. You get in a rhythm, and before you know, it's 50-0 at halftime.

2007, however, lacked an identity. Davis thought that he could give Colt enough options on every play that he would always have something open, something available, and that would create the ability for the offense to impose its will on the defense. It's kind of the opposite of 2005, in that instead of being ridiculous good, Colt needed to be ridiculously smart. The defense wouldn't be able to take away the one thing we did so well, because we would do just about everything well. This is when the announcers started talking about "playing the accordion" with the defense - sucking the defense in close with the short game, then bombing them long when they forgot about Limas Sweed. Then the bad news: Big Sweed was injured before the season and Colt, while a highly intelligent quarterback, was overwhelmed with his options, it didn't help that the line picked up the blitz like a group of freshmen at Notre Dame and no major adjustment was found for these shortcomings until the near disaster against Nebraska. Colt failed as the identity of our offense and we floundered somewhat until we figured out that Jamaal Charles was faster than he was fumble-prone (and just about everyone else, too). Then our offensive identity reverted to the 2005 plan: JC got ten yards a carry no matter what, and when they put eight or nine men in the box to stop him, we let Colt do his thing.

So the conclusion from 2007 was: Colt McCoy cannot "start" our offense. 2005 was started by VY, 2006 was started by an epic offensive line, and 2007 should have been all about Jamaal Charles all year long. Colt can't be the guy that the defense gameplans for all week, and then can't stop anyway. He's not going to get the defense to run dime while we still have a TE and a RB on the field so that we can run the ball. He's just going to have to mop up after Jamaal Charles. Oh great, JC went pro, now we're going to lose 5 games in 2008!

Wrong: Colt McCoy plays essentially a series of perfect games in 2008 from FAU all the way to Missourri. We're still on the 2005 side of the offensive spectrum, but this time, the thing we do ridiculously well is the short passing game. Colt completes 80% of his passes while leading 15-play drive after 15-play drive, despite being by far the main concern of every defense he faces. Not only does Colt McCoy start our offense, he is our offense. He leads the team in rushing to go along with setting just about every serious passing record in the history of Texas football. He comes within one of any number of plays in Lubbock from playing in the National Championship game. Colt McCoy completely reinvented himself and destroyed any notion that he couldn't be the "star" quarterback at the University of Texas.

The best example of this is probably the Oklahoma State game. Gundy (or more correctly, his defensive coordinator) developed an immensely complex and well-conceived gameplan for shutting down Colt McCoy. We won't go into details here, but suffice it to say that the Cowboy defense used more disguised coverages than a pedophile wearing an Optimus Prime costume. Incredibly Unsurprisingly, Colt rose to the challenge and again shattered any doubts, completing 38 of 45 pass attempts (84%) for 391 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, with 22 of those 38 completions resulting in first downs.

For my money, that's one of the most dominant performances by a single facet of our offense ever, especially considering just how bad we were at running the ball (3.5 ypc for just over 100 yards that game, Colt led the team with 41 on 10 carries) even when the defense was wholly focused on McCoy. Sure the 2005 offense as a whole was better, but that's mostly a product of Vince's improved passing ability. Vince was a good college passer, and any defense that sold out to stop the run as much as OSU sold out to stop McCoy would have found out the hard way that Texas had a solid left jab to compliment that monster right. McCoy then, by the same metaphor, barely had a left arm to speak of. Despite having almost no threat to keep OSU honest, the Texas passing attack rolled up almost 400 yards on better than 80% completions. That's just sick. Texas' rushing offense in 2005, complimented by a successful passing attack, may have been more dominant, but I don't think it ever needed to show it like McCoy did against OSU.

So, yeah. Can't start the offense?

Who needs a left?

Colt McCoy Can't be the Leader of this Team

This one goes back to a comment made by PB in a Morning Coffee before the Holiday Bowl. We found out somehow that Colt's favorite workout song was "She Thinks My Tractor's Sexy", and while Peter was partly kidding, he raised a valid point that Colt may have trouble connecting with the team if he thinks Kenny Chesney is a testosterone boost (check the comments in the MC post for better suggestions). I completely agreed. The song choice had little to do with it, really, but it highlighted the perception of McCoy at the time. Was Colt viewed by his teammates as a leader after such an inconsistent season in the backfield? Was he the kind of guy who gets ticked off and dedicates himself? Or was he content to remain in a comfortable little world listening to pretty men in cowboy hats croon about their perceived plowing prowess while he chucked INTs? Some of us feared the latter.

Wrong: Colt probably improved as much as anyone ever has in one offseason. Not only did the mistakes disappear, but Colt had become a creepy-good, bordering on perfect robo-QB. The team has rallied around him, adopting him as Colt "MyBoy", while he reciprocated the respect by passing every bit of praise he received to his line, his receivers, the running backs, the defense, and the coaches. He's even got Mack Brown telling the team to appreciate McCoy as the most accurate passer in the history of college football. Now Vince got a lot... a lot of praise from Brown while he was here, but I can't recall Brown telling the team anything like: Listen, you've got to play your ass off for Vince, 'cause it damn sure won't be his fault if we don't win the National Championship. (Yes that's what he said in coachspeak)

Colt's proven us wrong here twice: He's proven that he can become a leader on the team, sure, but he's also done something that no one ever considered: Colt means as much to this team as Vince meant in 2005. The team (and Mack Brown) knows that Colt can take them as far as they're willing to go. They're going to fight for him every step of the way, and they won't stop until they've given Colt his ultimate dream:

A sexy tractor ride in the Rose Bowl Parade.

What?

I meant a championship. Because the one thing that has been thrown around about Colt that he hasn't yet proven wrong is that he can't win a championship. If you're still in that camp, then I'd like to offer you one last chance to change your mind before you are proven wrong, once again, by one of the greatest players in college football history.

Whether you think he is or not.