SBNation.com User Blog: HugoAgogo

What is Stastny Worth? Trade Comparables 2008-Present.

HugoAgogo — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 10:41:56 -0000

With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, one name that continues to be floated as a trade possibility is that of Paul Stastny. Since O'Reilly started earning his character bucks and Duchene continues to have a strong bounce-back year, Stastny has been relegated to the third best center on the Avs roster. This, combined with the fact that he has only one year left at $6.6 million on his contract, makes him a possible trade target.

In light of this, the question that should be asked is: what is Stastny worth? At the age of 27, and with a career points per game average of 0.86, Stastny may be able to bring back some useful assets. However, in order to determine exactly how much Stastny is worth, I decided to look for comparable trades made over the last 5 seasons. Primarily, this examination involved looking at the player's age and their point per game average at the time they were traded.

I identified eight comparable trades (age, cap hit/years left, PPG):

- Jeff Carter (27 years old, 5.27 million/10 years, 0.74 PPG) for Jack Johnson & 1st round draft selection)

- Jeff Carter (again!) (27, 5.27/11, 0.74 PPG) for Jakub Voracek, 1st & 3rd round picks

- Mike Cammalleri (29, 6.00/2, 0.76) with Karri Ramo and a 5th rounder for Rene Bourque, Patrick Holland & a 2nd round pick

- Mike Cammalleri (again!) (27, 3.35/1, 0.72 PPG) with a 2nd round pick for 1st & 2nd round picks

- Martin Havlat (29, 5.00/4, 0.82 PPG) for Dany Heatley

- Mike Richards (26, 5.75/9, 0.77 PPG) and Rob Bordson for Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds & a 2nd round pick.

- Scott Gomez (29, 7.357/5, 0.82 PPG) with Tom Pyatt and Michael Busto for Chris Higgins, Doug Janik, Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valentenko.

- Alex Tanguay (27, 5.25/1, 0.89 PPG) with a 5th round pick for 1st & 2nd round picks.

So what does this all tell us? Firstly, that regardless of the term left on the contract, a 1st round pick, a blue chip prospect (McDonagh, Voracek, Bourque and to a lesser extent Brayden Schenn) or a comparable player (Heatley) should be the start point of a trade. Looking at the three players on expiring contracts (Tanguay and Cammalleri x 2), as each time a 2nd rounder was received as well, betting on this would be sensible as well. Based on Sherman's tenure, it is also possible that you could see some undrafted player with lots of "character" thrown into the deal.

While picking up a player like McDonagh for Stastny may be nice, the question becomes: is it worth trading Stastny at all? Stastny's current value cannot be as high as his career long PPG average - as it has been decreasing for the last 3 years, reaching a career low of 0.61 PPG this year. Similarly, Stastny has been thrown to the wolves this year - facing top competition and starting in the defensive zone just over 60% of the time. Yet, despite this, Stastny is the Avs third leading scorer, has the best Corsi on the team when the quality of the opposition is taken into account. Also, his very, very low PDO of 949 powered by the horrendous .894 SV% when Stastny is on the ice suggests that his puck luck should be due to improve. Simply put, Stastny is taking on the top competition and more often than not pushing the puck in the right direction.

So coming back to the initial question: what is Stastny worth? We can't know for sure. But for me, I can only hope that it is more than the Avs are willing to part with.

Sherman's Recent Trading History by the Numbers

HugoAgogo — Sat, 23 Mar 2013 21:51:56 -0000

With the trade deadline approaching, and the Avs out of playoff contention, now is a good time to look at what to expect in the lead up to April 3. Rather than approach this from the Avs wants and needs (as Andi has already covered here), this article considers Sherman's trading habits and how this may effect the Avs deadline behaviour.

During Sherman's first three years as Avs GM, Greg has made 22 trades, including 10 in the 2010 calendar year. Yet since 2010, Mr Sherman has gradually decreased the volume of trades completed - to 6 in 2011 and then 3 in 2012. This behaviour has culminated in the Avs making absolutely no trades since February 27 2012's trade of Galiardi and Winnik for McGriddle and Co.

The 13 month hiatus from the trade market is unprecedented for Sherman and the Avs generally. Looking back through the last 10 years, this represents the longest (by quite some margin) that the Avs have resisted the sweet, sweet temptation of the trade market. Although this behaviour could be due to the lockout, a quick observation of the behaviour of other teams suggests this is not the case. In fact, the Avs are currently tied with Vancouver for the longest period of trade inactivity (with St Louis only having made a trade involving grinder/fighter BJ Crombeen since February 27).

With the trade deadline coming up soon, it is very likely that the Avs make some trades. But, going on the recent history of the Avs, Sherman is unlikely to go trade crazy between now and deadline day. Rather, we can only hope that the one or two deals that Sherman does make involve defenseman - either capturing that mythical top pairing defenseman or releasing defensemen back into the wild (or in Zanon's case, back onto the Wild).

Poll

How many trades will the Avs make before the trade deadline?

0

48 votes

1

29 votes

2

41 votes

3

8 votes

4+

4 votes

130 votes | Poll has closed

Fancy Stats Crowd Happy With O'Reilly Signing

HugoAgogo — Sat, 02 Mar 2013 12:14:37 -0000

Fancy Stats Crowd Happy With O'Reilly Signing

Puck Prospectus use fancy stats to break down the O'Reilly situation - concluding that the Avs likely made the right decision.

Also interesting is the comments of scouts and players regarding O'Reilly - especially Chris Stewart's (absurd)comment that O'Reilly is our best player.

More O'Reilly Talk...

HugoAgogo — Wed, 16 Jan 2013 21:41:10 -0000

More O'Reilly Talk...

Puck Prospectus offers its stats-heavy take on Radar's value, in particular focussing on how repeatable his breakout season last year is.

McGinn has filed for arbitration

HugoAgogo — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 10:12:59 -0000

McGinn has filed for arbitration

According to the NHLPA website, McGinn has filed for salary arbitration. This indicates that McGinn is seeking more than is QO of $680,000 after his breakout season.

The Myth of Steve Downie, the bad penalty taker

HugoAgogo — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:51:21 -0000

In the immediate aftermath of the Downie trade there was a substantial amount of chatter about how Downie was prone to taking bad penalties. This comment by Jibblescribbits in the aftermath of the trade tends to succinctly summarise this school of thought:

I think any benefit he gets is downsized by the fact he takes a lot of penalties. He takes more than he drawns too. Being a player that makes the Avs go on the PK more is not a good thing.

However, when one looks at Downie's career stats it becomes clear that this is not the case. In fact, Downie tends to draw more penalties than he takes.

I think any benefit he gets is downsized by the fact he takes a lot of penalties. He takes more than he drawns too. Being a player that makes the Avs go on the PK more is not a good thing.

However, when one looks at Downie's career stats it becomes clear that this is not the case. In fact, Downie tends to draw more penalties than he takes.

Here are Downie's penalty taken and drawn rates per 60 minutes, courtesy of behindthenet.ca:

2011-12: 1.3 penalties taken per 60 minutes / 0.8 penalties drawn per 60 minutes in 58GP
2010-11: 1.6 / 1.9 in 57 GP
2009-10: 1.8 / 2.2 in 79 GP
2008-09: 2.3 / 2.8 in 29 GP
2007-08: 2.1 / 1.2 in 32 GP

This tells us two things in particular. Firstly, it appears that Downie is tending to take and drawn fewer and fewer penalties the further into his career he gets. Secondly, apart from his rookie season for the Flyers, this season is the only season that Downie is taking more penalties than he is drawing.

However, it should be noted that the sky-high penalty numbers that Downie obtained in his first two seasons were only in 32 and 29 GP's respectively. Accordingly, I averaged out Downie's penalty rates to account for this, such that the seasons where Downie played more (be that through higher GP or average time-on-ice per game) were proportionately reflected.

Resulting, Downie's career-long penalties taken v penalties drawn numbers were 1.69 v 1.70 per 60 minutes of ice time. This is roughly even and tells us that if Downie commits a penalty, often it is matched by an opponent taking a penalty.

This positive differential becomes even more significant if we throw out Downie's time in Philadelphia as a rookie where Downie takes 1.63 penalties per 60 minutes v 1.77 penalties drawn.

Shockingly, the only Avs regulars with better penalty +/-'s than Downie's this season are O'Reilly and Duchene. Similarly, only O'Reilly and Duchene have significantly higher penalty +/-'s when their performance over the last 3 years is looked at. The would tend towards the conclusion that Downie is in fact not a bad penalty taker.

Hence, just as Jibble stated that being a player who puts your team on the PK is a bad thing in his comment, being a player who puts your team on the PP more often than not is a good thing. Downie is a player who puts the Avs on the PP more often than on the PK.

Given the precious few powerplay opportunities the Avs have had this year, there is no doubt that adding Downie is a good thing.

Landy as Calder Frontrunner

HugoAgogo — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 23:29:33 -0000

Landy as Calder Frontrunner

More press for Landeskog as the new Calder frontrunner.

Also, the article floats the idea of Landeskog being on people's Selke ballots.

Duchene & Quincey amongst Penalty Plus/Minus Leaders

HugoAgogo — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 22:34:29 -0000

Duchene & Quincey amongst Penalty Plus/Minus Leaders

The Good News: Duchene currently has the 5th best Penalty Plus/Minus in the NHL.

The Bad News: Quincey has the worst Penalty Plus/Minus in the NHL.

Statistics suggest Avs are Unlucky

HugoAgogo — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 21:25:38 -0000

Statistics suggest Avs are Unlucky

Puck Prospectus has an article up evaluating the underlying numbers of lucky teams (e.g. the Wild and Oilers) and unlucky teams (e.g. the Avs and Canucks)

It appears Corsi is on our side this year.

How Does Our Johnson Compare to Other Johnsons?

HugoAgogo — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 22:34:09 -0000

Following on from MHH's stellar Johnson coverage and ongoing questions concerning how good he is going to be, I decided to take a different approach to evaluating Erik Johnson. Namely, by literally comparing Johnsons with Johnsons so to speak.

Thanks to hockeydb, we can see that there have been 479 recorded Johnsons that have some form of league hockey. Of these, only 25 have have penetrated the NHL:

Player	Pos.	YOB	Birthplace	Years	Highest Level
Aaron Johnson	D	1983	Port Hawkesbury, NS	1999-2011	Major League
Al Johnson	R	1935	Winnipeg, MAN	1954-1969	Major League
Bob Johnson	G	1948	Farminton, MI	1967-1977	Major League
Brent Johnson	G	1977	Farmington, MI	1994-2011	Major League
Brian Johnson	R	1960	Montreal, PQ	1977-1986	Major League
Chad Johnson	G	1986	Calgary, ALTA	2003-2011	Major League
Craig Johnson	L	1972	St. Paul, MN	1990-2008	Major League
Dan Johnson	C	1944	Winnipegosis, MAN	1963-1978	Major League
Earl "Ching" Johnson	C	1931	Fort Frances, ONT	1949-1962	Major League
Erik Johnson	D	1988	Bloomington, MN	2004-2011	Major League
Ernie "Moose" Johnson				1911-1929	Major League
Greg Johnson	C	1971	Thunder Bay, ONT	1988-2006	Major League
Ivan "Ching" Johnson	D	1898	Winnipeg, MAN	1925-1954	Major League
Jack Johnson	D	1987	Indianapolis, IN	2003-2011	Major League
Jim Johnson	D	1962	New Hope, MN	1981-1998	Major League
Jim Johnson	C	1942	Winnipeg, MAN	1962-1975	Major League
Mark Johnson	F	1957	Minneapolis, MN	1975-1992	Major League
Matt Johnson	L	1975	Welland, ONT	1992-2004	Major League
Mike Johnson	R	1974	Scarborough, ONT	1992-2009	Major League
Nick Johnson	R	1985	Calgary, ALTA	2002-2011	Major League
Norm Johnson	C	1932	Moose Jaw, SASK	1950-1971	Major League
Ryan Johnson	C	1976	Thunder Bay, ONT	1993-2011	Major League
Terry Johnson	D	1958	Calgary, ALTA	1975-1988	Major League
Tom Johnson	D	1928	Baldur, MAN	1946-1965	Major League
Virgil Johnson	D	1912	Minneapolis, MN	1931-1952	Major League

If we eliminate the forwards that have lower PPG averages than Erik Johnson (0.45) and players with less games than Erik Johnson (238) - we are left with 8 Johnsons: Mssrs Erik, Brent, Ivan "Ching", Jack, Jim, Mark, Terry and Tom Johnson.

Out of these 8 Johnson's, Mark Johnson is the currently the Best Johnson (with Olympic Gold with the US Miracle on Ice Team, and a decent (0.8 PPG average)).

After this, it is largely up for grabs - with Brent, Jack and Erik probably battling for 2nd best Johnson. Arguably, Erik Johnson has the early edge on Jack Johnson with a higher PPG average (0.45 v 0.36) and Brent Johnson (who only was the clear starting goalie with the 2000-01 Blues, other than this he has been tandeming with another goalie or backing-up).

But, if we were to look at Mark Johnson's 23-year-old season, Erik Johnson is clearly miles in front of Mark - as Mark only had 42 points in 90 games (or 0.47 PPG).

Based on this we can say that Erik Johnson's achievements are better than 99% of other Johnson's and that only time and experience is standing in the way of Erik Johnson being the best Johnson ever.

Goalies are Expensive.

HugoAgogo — Sat, 02 Jul 2011 23:22:54 -0000

Following up from MHH's collective commentary on the Varlamov trade and what that says about the Avs front-office, our future and a number of other perspectives - I decided to look at other trades involving goalies since the lockout.

The principle aim of this article is to test the proposition, summarised by Seesixwhores, that "goalies are Expensive and Teams do not let them go for Nothing." I have ignored trades that involve draft picks beyond the 4th round or where the "centrepiece" is not a goalie in a multi-player trade

2005-6 season:

Thibault for a 4th round draft pick
Leighton (drafted in the 5th round) for Bartovic (a 2nd round pick)
Theodore for Aebischer
Roloson for a 1st and a conditional 3rd round draft pick

2006-7 season:

Luongo, Krajicek and a 6th round draft pick for Bertuzzi, Auld and Allen
Rask for Raycroft
Denis for Norrena and Modin
Cloutier for a 2nd round draft pick
Tellqvist for a 4th round draft pick
Biron for a 2nd round draft pick

2007-8 season:

Toskala and Bell for a 1st (13th overall), 2nd and 4th round draft picks
Vokoun for a 1st round draft pick
Montoya (6th overall) and Marcel Hossa (16th overall) for LeNeveu (46th overall), Sjostrom (11th overall) and Gratton (undrafted)

2008-9 season:

Mason for a 4th round draft pick.
Garon for Sabourin, Stone and a 4th round draft pick.
Tellqvist for a 4th round draft pick (again).

2009-10 season:

Giguere for Toskala and Blake.
Lehtonen (2nd overall) for Vishnevskiy (27th overall) and a 4th round draft pick

2010 to present:

Halak (271st overall) for Eller (13th overall) and Schultz
Salak (undrafted) and Frolik (10th overall) for Skille (7th overall), Jessiman and Pacan
Bryzgalov for Clarkson and a 3rd round draft pick

In total, there are 21 relevant trades. The question becomes, which of these are most comparable to Varlamov? Varlamov was drafted 23rd overall and is currently 23 years old. Due to this we can strike out most of the trades involving established goaltenders. I would consider that the 4 transactions in bold are the most similar to the Varlamov trade.

In each of these situations the goalie was a young prospect (with the possible exception of Toskala), who was the second option on the team (Price over Halak, Pavelec over Lehtonen, Lundqvist over Montoya, Nabokov over Toskala). Varlamov's position currently is probably more established than Montoya's at that time - so this would dictate that the return should be higher than this. Likewise, Lehtonen, despite having played more games for Atlanta (R.I.P) had a more extensive injury history than Varlamov has had. Nevertheless, a prospect who was drafted in the 1st round was still received for him.

This leaves the Toskala and Halak trades. Toskala was 28 or 29 at the time he was traded and had played 114 games in the NHL. Varlamov is 23 and has played 59 games in the NHL. However, Varlamov still has plenty of time to improve - whereas Toskala had reached his ceiling at this point (as was illustrated by his subsequent decline in play). Despite this, Toskala got a return in excess of what the Avs surrendered to the Capitals.

However, Halak is probably a better comparison here. He was 25 at the time and had played 101 regular season games. Again, you can make the point that Varlamov is younger, but Halak is more proven as a goaltender. But still, Halak got a quality prospect which was drafted in the 1st round.

In conclusion, when you are trading for prospects of Varlamov's calibre - history dictates that a first round prospect or draft pick goes the other way. Goalies are expensive.

Did we pay too much? Maybe. But one look at the Avs history of draft and developing goalies, makes you doubt Calvin Pickard or any other goalie in the Avs system is likely to be the long-term solution in net.

2005-6 season:

Thibault for a 4th round draft pick
Leighton (drafted in the 5th round) for Bartovic (a 2nd round pick)
Theodore for Aebischer
Roloson for a 1st and a conditional 3rd round draft pick

2006-7 season:

Luongo, Krajicek and a 6th round draft pick for Bertuzzi, Auld and Allen
Rask for Raycroft
Denis for Norrena and Modin
Cloutier for a 2nd round draft pick
Tellqvist for a 4th round draft pick
Biron for a 2nd round draft pick

2007-8 season:

Toskala and Bell for a 1st (13th overall), 2nd and 4th round draft picks
Vokoun for a 1st round draft pick
Montoya (6th overall) and Marcel Hossa (16th overall) for LeNeveu (46th overall), Sjostrom (11th overall) and Gratton (undrafted)

2008-9 season:

Mason for a 4th round draft pick.
Garon for Sabourin, Stone and a 4th round draft pick.
Tellqvist for a 4th round draft pick (again).

2009-10 season:

Giguere for Toskala and Blake.
Lehtonen (2nd overall) for Vishnevskiy (27th overall) and a 4th round draft pick

2010 to present:

Halak (271st overall) for Eller (13th overall) and Schultz
Salak (undrafted) and Frolik (10th overall) for Skille (7th overall), Jessiman and Pacan
Bryzgalov for Clarkson and a 3rd round draft pick

In conclusion, when you are trading for prospects of Varlamov's calibre - history dictates that a first round prospect or draft pick goes the other way. Goalies are expensive.

Sherman's Got Trading Problems

HugoAgogo — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 23:24:47 -0000

It obvious that the Avs have been extremely active in the trade market in the last year or so - from the Avs finally giving up on TJ Hensick, to the Avs recent trade of John-Michael Liles to Toronto for a bag of magic beans. I figured it would be interesting to compare this past year of trades to other years since the lockout.

The Avs have made 31 trades in total since the lockout ended. This is the history of how many trades occurred in number each year:

2005-06: 3 trades
2006-07: 4 trades
2007-08: 4 trades
2008-09: 4 trades
2009-10: 4 trades
2010-11: 11 trades
2011-12: Currently 1 trade

The first thing that is interesting is how consistent the Avs were in making trades throughout the Lacroix, Giguere and early in the Sherman-era.

The fact that Sherman made 11 trades is cause for concern in some ways - as it is far above average. Although this is not a record for a season (the 17 trades by the Oren Koules and the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2008-9 is probably a record), it raises an issue of whether Sherman is being too impatient with prospects (Cohen, Shattenkirk and Bournival spring to mind) or getting a poor return for the assets he has (such as the Liles and the Hunwick trades).

In light of this, I am curious as to if the MHH community thinks that Sherman's pro-activity in the trade market was a good move - especially in light of the impeding free-agency period.

The Avs have made 31 trades in total since the lockout ended. This is the history of how many trades occurred in number each year:

2005-06: 3 trades
2006-07: 4 trades
2007-08: 4 trades
2008-09: 4 trades
2009-10: 4 trades
2010-11: 11 trades
2011-12: Currently 1 trade

The first thing that is interesting is how consistent the Avs were in making trades throughout the Lacroix, Giguere and early in the Sherman-era.

In light of this, I am curious as to if the MHH community thinks that Sherman's pro-activity in the trade market was a good move - especially in light of the impeding free-agency period.

Poll

Do you think that Sherman has made too many trades in the last year?

Yes

34 votes

No

37 votes

Give it 5 years

31 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Gaunce brings the laughs at the OHL Awards Bubs here: Fanboy front page time!

HugoAgogo — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 11:04:15 -0000

Gaunce brings the laughs at the OHL Awards

Bubs here: Fanboy front page time!

Puck Prospectus on the Top 100 Draft Prospects

HugoAgogo — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 23:16:48 -0000

Puck Prospectus on the Top 100 Draft Prospects

Two of the guys the Avs collectively have man crushes on are not given the best report cards - Landeskog is considered to be the 13th best draft prospect and Siemens is at #62 (!).

The order at the top is RNH, Couturier, Strome, Huberdeau with a gap to Larsson and Murphy.

Joey Hishon Injured in Owen Sound Memorial Cup win

HugoAgogo — Sun, 22 May 2011 12:39:51 -0000

Joey Hishon Injured in Owen Sound Memorial Cup win

Joey Hishon copped an elbow to the head from Kootenay Ice's Brayden McNabb in the 3rd period of Owen Sound Attack's 5-0 win. He did not play the remainder of the match and his status for Owen Sound's next game against Huberdeau and the St John Sea Dogs is questionable.

Various opinions of players and coaches can be found here.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: According to the Attack website:
nothing is seriously wrong with Joey, but he did take a good crack. We’ll see what the next day brings and by that time we should know a little more.
Stick tap to the White Guy for the link.

How good is Larsson: Comparing Larsson to Hedman

HugoAgogo — Thu, 05 May 2011 22:38:02 -0000

How good is Larsson: Comparing Larsson to Hedman

How good is Larsson. Unsurprisingly, the answer is very good.

Breaking down Huberdeau and Couturier's stats by Quality of Opposition

HugoAgogo — Thu, 05 May 2011 22:35:55 -0000

Breaking down Huberdeau and Couturier's stats by Quality of Opposition

Over at In Lou We Trust - they have put together an article which breaks down the performance of Huberdeau and Couturier by team and quality of competition (much like Zandar has been proposing to do).

Surprisingly Couturier (1.86 PPG, +13) comes out substantially in front of Huberdeau (1.11 PPG, +2) against top competition.

Thoughts on Landeskog, Comparing Huberdeau and Strome

HugoAgogo — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 07:04:57 -0000

Thoughts on Landeskog, Comparing Huberdeau and Strome

More wood for the fire on whom the Avs should pick.

Rating Teenagers: A Situational Breakdown of the Top Forward Draft Prospects

HugoAgogo — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 23:34:07 -0000

When considering who the Avs should draft in the 2011 draft, it is worthwhile looking at how the top draft prospects perform in certain situations. To do this I taken 6 forwards which are considered to be top 10 selections - 2 from each of the major junior leagues (WHL, OHL and QMJHL). I looked at Gabriel Landeskog and Ryan Strome from the OHL, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sven Bartschi from the WHL and Sean Couturier and Jonathon Huberdeau from the QMJHL.

Firstly, as mcarson recently did with Landeskog, Nugent-Hopkins and Couturier, I split the statistics of the top prospects into even strength, powerplay, shorthanded and empty net points scored at even strength. Statistics are current as of today's playoff games.

Situation EV PP SH EN Total

Landeskog 50 20 2 4 76

Strome 69 45 2 1 117

Nugent-Hopkins 51 65 0 1 117

Bartschi 74 24 0 1 99

Couturier 63 35 8 1 107

Huberdeau 81 38 6 2 127

However, as is obvious, Landeskog suffers by this metric. Accordingly, these figures were converted in point per game figures:

Situation EV PP SH EN Total

Landeskog 0.83 0.33 0.03 0.07 1.27

Strome 0.90 0.58 0.03 0.01 1.52

Nugent-Hopkins 0.65 0.83 0.00 0.01 1.50

Bartschi 0.96 0.31 0.00 0.01 1.29

Couturier 0.93 0.51 0.12 0.01 1.57

Huberdeau 1.04 0.49 0.08 0.03 1.63

Observations:

What is interesting about these results is that the top two forward prospects according to the most recent Central Scouting rankings for 2011 in Nugent-Hopkins and Landeskog actually have the lowest Even Strength point per game averages out of the six skaters examined. This could possibly suggest that scouts are paying too much attention to the powerplay performance of a prospect (Nugent-Hopkins) or are banking on the fact that injuries have hurt their rate of scoring (Landeskog). As the CHL does not publish time on ice data - there is no way to know how many minutes each player was playing.
By this metric, both the QMJHL players in Huberdeau and Couturier look very good.

However, I also wanted to attempt to standardise the amount of points scored by players in different leagues. Two methods were adopted to do this. First, I calculated the number of goals scored across the three leagues for the regular season and then standardised the points per game figures using the different between the OHL and the other leagues.

Goals Scored by League:

QMJHL: 4112 goals in 612 games, 6.72 GPG. 1 QMJHL point is worth 1.08 OHL points
OHL: 4934 goals in 680 games, 7.26 GPG
WHL: 5356 goals in 792 games, 6.76 GPG. 1 WHL point is worth 1.07 OHL points.

As we can assume the amount of assists for a goal is constant across the leagues, we can work out a ratio of how many points a point in the OHL is worth (I have used the OHL as it is the highest scoring league) and multiply all of the point per game scores by this, getting the following results:

Standardised Points Per Game

Landeskog: 1.27
Strome: 1.52
Nugent-Hopkins: 1.61
Bartschi: 1.38
Couturier: 1.70
Huberdeau: 1.76

This has caused the gap between Landeskog and the other skaters to increase again. Of course, this does not account for any differences in the average skill of skaters in the respective leagues. In order to consider this I looked at the percentage of offence contributed by each prospect - in the hope of providing context to their point per game figures by comparing to the rest of this team. To get team points per game I took the goals per game and added 1 and 3/4 assists for each goal.

Here are the results:

			Team Goals	Team GPG	Team PPG		% Points Contributed

Landeskog		256 			3.76 		10.35		12.23%

Strome  		273			4.01		11.04		13.76%

Nugent-Hopkins		268			3.72		10.24		14.65%

Bartschi		303			4.21		11.57		11.11%

Couturier		251			3.69		10.15		15.50%

Huberdeau		324			4.76		13.10		12.43%

Observations:

It appears that Couturier has suffered by virtue of his team having an average offence: a QMJHL team's average GPG is 3.4GPG, Couturier's team only averaged 3.69GPG.
Nugent-Hopkins stands out using this metric, whilst Huberdeau suddenly looks less exceptional.

Finally, I wanted to do home and away splits for these prospects for 3 things: total points, multipoint games and zero point games

			Points 		Multipoint Games	Zero Point Games

 			Home 	Away 	Home 	Away		Home	Away

Landeskog		51	 25	17	7		8	11

Strome  		62	 55	19	17		9	7

Nugent-Hopkins		64 	53	22	15		8	12

Bartschi		44	55	9	16		9	8

Couturier  		58	49	18	17		6	8

Huberdeau 		70	57	22	18		8	6

Observations:

Landeskog's numbers are a bit odd. His home/away games split is not even by virtue of his injury with 32 home games played compared to 28 away games - but a half a point per game difference is significant (1.6 PPG at home v 1.1 PPG away). His multipoint games could be inflating this variance - as his split of zero point games are roughly normal. His injury can't be used to justified this result - as his games prior to the injury are split 50/50 in home and away games and his first 4 games back from injury were home games.

I think it is possible that Landeskog's number reflect that he did not respond very well to away coach's being able to match lines against Landeskog, whereas at home Steve Spott (Kitchener's coach) could control who he was sent out against.

Bartschi is the only player with better performances on the road across the year. This could be he is on a loaded Portland Winterhawks team and is effectively on the 2nd line of this team (Niederreiter is probably the 1st line LW). Accordingly, he could have been slipping under the radar slightly and not being matched against the oppositions top line. Also, his playoff performance has probably skewed the numbers, as 4 out of 5 multipoint games he has had in the playoffs were on the road, and he has only been scoreless at home during the playoffs (4 times).

If you are looking for a consistent performance by a prospect again - the top 2 prospects aren't very successful at this with Landeskog going scoreless in a 32% of his games and Nugent-Hopkins failing to record points in 26% of games. There is a 5% gap to Bartschi, with Huberdeau the best at 18% of games scoreless. Again, this reiterates that the scouts are probably utilising other metrics to calculate performance.

Conclusions:

So who would you choose from these numbers? Personally, I think that Couturier looks pretty good from these numbers, but I think any of these guys would be okay for the Avs. What are your thoughts?

Poll

Which forward prospect would you select for the Avs?

Landeskog - 6' .5", 208lb, recently injured - sounds too much like Forsberg to say no

141 votes

Strome - the last centre we draft from the OHL worked out well huh?

0 votes

Nugent-Hopkins - look at the Avs powerplay, look at RHN - problem, meet solution

34 votes

Bartschi - LW, new on the scene with a stellar playoffs

3 votes

Couturier - 6' 4", 197lb, underrated?

30 votes

Huberdeau - like Bartschi but a Centre and more studly

11 votes

Go off the Board (Other player in comments)

5 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

Tank for the Predict and Win Contest

HugoAgogo — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 20:51:30 -0000

Just to wallow in the Avs hugely successful tanking campaign - I figured I would go back and look at the MHH community's wide-eyed optimism concerning the Predict and Win Contest set up earlier this season. I know that generally people wait until the end of the season before checking this - but why not cheer for the Avs to tank and attempt to win something at the same time...

The Overall Title & Guessing Budaj's start total

The Avs currently have 60 points in 68 games. This means the maximum amount of points the Avs can get is 88. Out of the 77 people who made guesses - these are the remaining contenders for the wonderful prize:

Smoky201& Dan Winkler: 83 (11-3-1 record required to reach 83 points)
Don Balls & Dixomatic: 84 (12-2-0)
SlamDunkTheFunk: 86 (13-1-0)
Shikemania: 87 (13-0-1)
Mike@MHH, Jibble & wickediz: 88 (14-0-0)

I think a reasonable prediction at this point is that no one will win - although if we go to the tiebreaker with both Smoky and Dan - Dan gets the win by guessing closer on Budaj's start total (with a guess of 22).

Dixomatic's guess of 38 starts for Budaj could be the best guess which was followed by a very accurate statement:

Keyword of the season: Injuries

Red Wing Dave also believed in Budaj and is in the hunt - guessing Budaj would have 33 starts.

The Top Ten Soothsayers

Finally, from the original article:

We will also post a list of the top ten soothsayers on the front page.

The top ten soothsayers are the nine individuals listed above and the three individuals that selected 89 points. This makes the list, in order of likely soothsaying ability, as follows:

T1. Smoky201& Dan Winkler

4. Don Balls & Dixomatic

5. SlamDunkTheFunk

6. Shikemania

T7. Mike@MHH, Jibble & wickediz

T10. MalachiConstant, Andykrist & Spezzal Teams Playa

Congratulations, guys. Go Avs.

Poll

What is going to be the Avs real final point total?

60 points

2 votes

61-70 points

34 votes

71-80 points

4 votes

80+ points

0 votes

Other exact guess, because I'm a master soothsayer (state in comments)

2 votes

42 votes | Poll has closed

Zenon gets his props

HugoAgogo — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 21:59:31 -0000

Zenon gets his props

Copper & Blue with a breakdown of faceoff performance has nice things to say about Zenon

Looking at the Avs performance in Close Games

HugoAgogo — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 21:28:58 -0000

As this is the time of year where the Avs keep from giving - I figured a look at the performance of the Avs when the game was close is warranted. This gives us some idea of who scores the important goals.

Numbers are from Vic Ferrari's timeonice pages.

So, what is close you ask? A close game here is when the score is within one goal in the first or second period, or when tied in the third period or overtime. All numbers are based on only even-strength situations.

Firstly, lets look at the top 10 goal-scorers in these situations:

Player	Games Played	Goals	Saved Shots	Shooting %
Stewart	74	11	71	13.40%
Wolski	59	9	60	13.00%
Duchene	78	7	59	10.60%
Hejduk	53	5	39	11.40%
Stastny	78	5	67	6.90%
Hendricks	51	4	24	14.30%
Mueller	14	3	6	33.30%
Yip	31	3	17	15.00%
Durno	36	3	15	16.70%
Cumiskey	59	3	25	10.70%

Observations:

The top of the list is not too surprising - the top 5 players are the top 5 goal scorers. Wolski does jump from 5th to 2nd by this metric and Duchene and Co slide down one place.
The real surprises however, are the presence Hendricks and Durno in 6th and T-7th respectively.
The absence of Galiardi, who was the Avs 6th best goal scorer, from this list is also somewhat surprising.
Mueller's shooting percentage of 33.33% (!) is way, way too high to be sustained coming into this season.

Now, the team-wide figures for close games:

(Caution: Big table with lots of numbers ahead)

Player	Goals When On Ice		Saved Shots		Shots%	Corsi%	On Ice EVsave%	On Ice EVshooting%
Mueller	6	1	47	60	0.465	0.444	0.984	11.30%
Wolski	21	8	203	208	0.509	0.457	0.963	9.40%
Jones	6	4	70	86	0.458	0.422	0.956	7.90%
Clark	16	11	190	196	0.499	0.469	0.947	7.80%
Tucker	6	9	105	141	0.425	0.437	0.94	5.40%
Stoa	1	2	24	31	0.431	0.456	0.939	4.00%
Wilson	17	13	148	196	0.441	0.436	0.938	10.30%
Quincey	27	24	251	347	0.428	0.401	0.935	9.70%
Hejduk	19	14	162	195	0.464	0.443	0.933	10.50%
Liles	16	13	157	179	0.474	0.454	0.932	9.20%
Foote	25	20	196	273	0.43	0.422	0.932	11.30%
Duchene	22	20	205	265	0.443	0.428	0.93	9.70%
Stewart	27	21	196	275	0.43	0.425	0.929	12.10%
Durno	7	5	45	64	0.43	0.404	0.928	13.50%
Team	74	70	737	907	0.454	0.433	0.928	9.10%
Stastny	31	23	264	287	0.488	0.458	0.926	10.50%
O'Reilly	13	20	194	243	0.44	0.415	0.924	6.30%
Hendricks	10	7	77	84	0.489	0.415	0.923	11.50%
Hannan	29	31	265	346	0.438	0.415	0.918	9.90%
Galiardi	16	21	190	229	0.452	0.44	0.916	7.80%
Salei	0	5	51	54	0.464	0.435	0.915	0.00%
Koci	1	2	15	21	0.41	0.398	0.913	6.30%
McLeod	13	17	144	173	0.452	0.437	0.911	8.30%
Cumiskey	18	22	198	213	0.479	0.459	0.906	8.30%
Yip	8	11	75	100	0.428	0.427	0.901	9.60%
Svatos	5	11	90	99	0.463	0.457	0.9	5.30%
Yelle	2	4	22	34	0.387	0.36	0.895	8.30%
Porter	2	4	28	30	0.469	0.466	0.882	6.70%

Observations:

The departed Wolski has the best goal differential (+13), shots percentage (0.509) and the 2nd best EV save percentage (.963). In particular, the large deviation of EV save percentage from that of the team (.928) could indicate that Wolski was getting unsustainably good bounces in goalie performance whilst close (or he is a stud, or he is a lucky stud).
After that the goal differential are what you would expect - with fellow 1st liners Stastny (+8) and Stewart (+6), and the veteran Hedjuk (+5) having the best results in close games. This is exceptional considering they also faced the toughest competition amongst regular forwards last season. Further, unlike Wolski - they both got the job done whilst getting team-average goal support in close situations. These are the guys the Avs expect to be game-changers - and for good reason.
Duchene's goal differential in close games (+2) isn't too flattering at the moment - but I would expect like his +/-, that it improved immensely as the season went on.
Mueller's save percentage at EV during close games is ridiculously high (.984) and won't last into this season.
Likewise, Cumiskey's save percentage (.906, lowest amongst defensemen) is quite low - its likely this will improve this year.
Pretty much everyone's Corsi sucks in close games - which isn't a surprise, given what the naysayers were saying during the season. What is perhaps a surprise is the fact that Clark had the best Corsi (.469). Does this show there is something wrong with Corsi - I'll let the reader decide...

So, given the above analysis - its time for a poll...

Poll

Who would you turn to late in the third period with scores tied...?

Paul Stastny

3 votes

Chris Stewart

9 votes

Matt Duchene

11 votes

Brandon Yip

1 votes

Craig Anderson

12 votes

Other

2 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

Kabanov, Petrov and Ranking the Russians

HugoAgogo — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 22:26:11 -0000

Kabanov, Petrov and Ranking the Russians

Plenty of positive things are said about both Kabanov and Petrov.

On Petrov: "I think he can win a spot with the Islanders right away"

A Stats Machine Likes Pickard and Hishon.

HugoAgogo — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 10:58:53 -0000

A Stats Machine Likes Pickard and Hishon.

Puck Prospectus using their statistical formulae rates Pickard as a possible goalie with a 'Martin Brodeur' like career and the best prospect in the draft (!). Also, Joe(y) Hishon is ranked 12th by their system.

More reasons for positivity...

The Avalanche and Shot Quality

HugoAgogo — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 23:15:03 -0000

The Avalanche and Shot Quality

"When you take shot quality into account, suddenly the Avalanche look like an average team, rather than the insanely lucky pretenders"

Anti-Corsi articles FTW!

Why playing under .500 hockey post-Olympics is good for the Avs.

HugoAgogo — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 22:29:54 -0000

Most Avs fans may have thought that going 8-9-1 post-Olympics was pretty bad, especially when there was the chance that Calgary would take the 8 seed. In particular, the lack of any wins in regulation against fellow Western Conference playoff teams would appear disconcerting (3-5-1 record overall).

However, there are some significant positives to be taken from this adversity. Namely, the fact that Anderson is not playing at his peak means that the offense and the defense have been picking up the slack.

Without invoking the power of Corsi, this improvement is most basically seen through the shots-for and shots-against over the period compared with the season average and the hot start to the season (the first 15 games):

First 15 games: 23.9 SF v 33.1 SA.
Post-Olympics: 29.7 SF v 32.1 SA.
Season average: 27.7 SF v 31.8 SA.

As generally, shooting more leads to more goals, there is definite improvement in the Avs performance in this regard. The 6 shot difference is equal to approximately .63 of a goal more per game (use the Avs average of 2.91 GPG with 27.7 SPG).

What might appear worrying is the 32.1 shots against per game - but if big early lead that the Avs sat on against STL is stripped from the numbers, the Avs averaged only 30.5 shots against per game - also below the season average.

If this is combined with Anderson regaining some of that lost form - there is no doubt that the adversity that the Avs have faced over the post-Olympic period is going to be beneficial in the playoffs and into the future.

First 15 games: 23.9 SF v 33.1 SA.
Post-Olympics: 29.7 SF v 32.1 SA.
Season average: 27.7 SF v 31.8 SA.

Ferris Mueller and the Powerplay - Myths, Stats and Reality.

HugoAgogo — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 22:27:00 -0000

Has Mueller helped the powerplay? Yes. But, how much?

Now...this article is intended as a companion piece for Beachie's Mueller/Porter-Wolski trade analysis after 11 games.

Comparing the 11 games since Mueller joined the Avs and the games prior to this some interesting patterns emerge. Some raw numbers on the powerplay:

In Mueller's 11 games with the Avs, there have been 52 powerplay shots on goal (4.73 shots per game). Mueller has been on ice for 35 of them. This means he is on-ice for basically 2/3's of shots on the powerplay.
In the 62 games prior, the Avs took 303 powerplay shots on goal (4.89 shots per game).

Analysing these figures, Mueller's addition has not actually had a significant effect on the number of shots taken on the powerplay per game - Mueller's arrival has actually slightly decreased the number of shots per game on the powerplay. Granted, this may be because there has been an increase in the number of quality scoring chances which has generated more goals and has prematurely ended the powerplay.

But, if you compare powerplay units with Mueller on it versus powerplay units without Mueller you get a better sense of his value:

Since Mueller, the Avs have spent 56:07 on the powerplay.
Mueller has played 24:40 on the powerplay and has been on ice for 35 scoring chances. This translates to 1 scoring chance per 42.3 seconds of powerplay ice time.
Powerplay's without Mueller have spent 31:27 on the ice for 17 scoring chances. This translates to 1 scoring chance per 111 seconds of powerplay ice time.

This difference is significant - Mueller-manned powerplays generate shots 2.6 times more than their non-Mueller counterparts. Obviously, some of the effect seen here can be attributed to the disparity between the strength of the 1st and 2nd powerplay units and also to the other players on the 1st powerplay unit clicking with Mueller (in particular Liles) - but regardless having Mueller is clearly helping.

Interestingly, the conversion rate of shots into goals is roughly the same on Mueller (4/17 = 24% conversion) and non-Mueller powerplays (7/35 = 20% conversion). Obviously, this proves one conclusion that people draw when the powerplay doesn't work - Shooting More = More Powerplay Success. Further, it eliminates the idea that Mueller is simply riding a wave of good luck as far as shooting percentage goes (his overall shooting percentage since joining the Avs is 21%).

Has Mueller helped the powerplay? Yes. But, how much?

Now...this article is intended as a companion piece for Beachie's Mueller/Porter-Wolski trade analysis after 11 games.

Comparing the 11 games since Mueller joined the Avs and the games prior to this some interesting patterns emerge. Some raw numbers on the powerplay:

In Mueller's 11 games with the Avs, there have been 52 powerplay shots on goal (4.73 shots per game). Mueller has been on ice for 35 of them. This means he is on-ice for basically 2/3's of shots on the powerplay.
In the 62 games prior, the Avs took 303 powerplay shots on goal (4.89 shots per game).

But, if you compare powerplay units with Mueller on it versus powerplay units without Mueller you get a better sense of his value:

Since Mueller, the Avs have spent 56:07 on the powerplay.
Mueller has played 24:40 on the powerplay and has been on ice for 35 scoring chances. This translates to 1 scoring chance per 42.3 seconds of powerplay ice time.
Powerplay's without Mueller have spent 31:27 on the ice for 17 scoring chances. This translates to 1 scoring chance per 111 seconds of powerplay ice time.

Poll

Who or what is most important to powerplay success?

Chemistry

35 votes

Shooting...and lots of it

46 votes

John-Michael Liles

8 votes

Peter Mueller

20 votes

Other (leave in comments)

4 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

Streit to Colorado

HugoAgogo — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 21:50:34 -0000

Streit to Colorado

With Colorado's depth in D prospect, this is almost a move that would make sense (to the Isles at least). Whether Streit should be surrendered is another question...

The Isles in the 3rd - the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

HugoAgogo — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 22:53:49 -0000

The Isles are a frustrating team this year - possibly more so than last. There are the glimpses of the future that offer intrigue and hope. Then there are 7 game losing streaks where you get outscored 9 to 27.

Anyhow, one thing that is seriously troublesome is the performance of the Isles in the 3rd period. The Isles have only scored 31 times - the worst in the league by a significant amount (Calgary is the next worst with 40 goals). Further, the Isles have allowed 66 goals, meaning they have a goal differential of -35 -- the worst goal differential for any period of any team in the league.

However, rather than leave it at this, I decided to look at the games where the Isles score and are scored on in more detail. The results are interesting...

Now, the Isles were scored on in the 3rd period in 37 games. Their record in these games: 8-25-4. This would result in a 44 point season. Breaking down the 8 wins, things get even worse:

Game 46 v Phoenix: 5-4 SOW
Game 44 v Colorado: 3-2 W.
Game 43 v Atlanta: 6-5 SOW.
Game 41 v Columbus: 2-1 SOW.
Game 34 v NYR: 2-1 W.
Game 24 v Toronto: 4-3 OTL.
Game 17 v Atlanta: 6-3 W
Game 6 v Carolina: 4-3 SOW.

Five of the games above were decided in the shootout or overtime. Of the remaining three games, the Isles also scored in the 3rd period in two of them - against Colorado and Atlanta.

The Isles scored in the third period in 23 games. Their record in such games is the far more respectable 9-8-5. Of the eight losses - only Game 18 versus Washington saw the opponent held scoreless in the third period. This would catapult their record to 9-1-5.

Clearly, there is no single cure to the Isles inconsistency (and current losing streak) - but outscoring the opponent in the final period would be one step towards this team becoming a serious contender.

Tyler Arnason, One of the Best....At Being Hit

HugoAgogo — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 06:22:02 -0000

Tyler Arnason, One of the Best....At Being Hit

When your ratio of being hit to laying hits is 8:1 and all the other names around you are skill forwards, you know something is wrong.

SBNation.com User Blog: HugoAgogo

What is Stastny Worth? Trade Comparables 2008-Present.

Sherman's Recent Trading History by the Numbers

How many trades will the Avs make before the trade deadline?

0

1

2

3

4+

Fancy Stats Crowd Happy With O'Reilly Signing

More O'Reilly Talk...

McGinn has filed for arbitration

The Myth of Steve Downie, the bad penalty taker

Landy as Calder Frontrunner

Duchene & Quincey amongst Penalty Plus/Minus Leaders

Statistics suggest Avs are Unlucky

How Does Our Johnson Compare to Other Johnsons?

Goalies are Expensive.

Sherman's Got Trading Problems

Do you think that Sherman has made too many trades in the last year?

Yes

No

Give it 5 years

Gaunce brings the laughs at the OHL Awards Bubs here: Fanboy front page time!

Puck Prospectus on the Top 100 Draft Prospects

Joey Hishon Injured in Owen Sound Memorial Cup win

How good is Larsson: Comparing Larsson to Hedman

Breaking down Huberdeau and Couturier's stats by Quality of Opposition

Thoughts on Landeskog, Comparing Huberdeau and Strome

Rating Teenagers: A Situational Breakdown of the Top Forward Draft Prospects

Which forward prospect would you select for the Avs?

Landeskog - 6' .5", 208lb, recently injured - sounds too much like Forsberg to say no

Strome - the last centre we draft from the OHL worked out well huh?

Nugent-Hopkins - look at the Avs powerplay, look at RHN - problem, meet solution

Bartschi - LW, new on the scene with a stellar playoffs

Couturier - 6' 4", 197lb, underrated?

Huberdeau - like Bartschi but a Centre and more studly

Go off the Board (Other player in comments)

Tank for the Predict and Win Contest

What is going to be the Avs *real* final point total?

60 points

61-70 points

71-80 points

80+ points

Other exact guess, because I'm a master soothsayer (state in comments)

Zenon gets his props

Looking at the Avs performance in Close Games

Who would you turn to late in the third period with scores tied...?

Paul Stastny

Chris Stewart

Matt Duchene

Brandon Yip

Craig Anderson

Other

Kabanov, Petrov and Ranking the Russians

A Stats Machine Likes Pickard and Hishon.

The Avalanche and Shot Quality

Why playing under .500 hockey post-Olympics is good for the Avs.

Ferris Mueller and the Powerplay - Myths, Stats and Reality.

Who or what is most important to powerplay success?

Chemistry

Shooting...and lots of it

John-Michael Liles

Peter Mueller

Other (leave in comments)

Streit to Colorado

The Isles in the 3rd - the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Tyler Arnason, One of the Best....At Being Hit

What is going to be the Avs real final point total?