My last draft of the year is tonight at a local restaurant at 6pm.  This league is a bit strange.  It's largely a group of middle-aged men, 14 teams, QB heavy scoring.  This is going to be the league's 11th season, and it will be my 3rd.  You have to keep 3 players, but once a player has been kept 2 years in a row, he has to go back into the draft pool. 

What they've done with team defense scoring drives me crazy.  In a misguided effort to make it more important, they make a point scored on your defense worth -1.  So, in any given week, your defense can light up your team to the tune of -20 or -30.  I understand their intentions, but what they fail to see is that no matter how you set up the scoring, the problem isn't that team defense is unimportant because it isn't worth anything, the problem is that it's still unpredictable.  Yet nobody realizes it.  One of the guys is KEEPING A DEFENSE.  Yes, that's right.  He's keeping Tennessee Defense over Jonathan Stewart or Ray Rice, because he thinks defense is important now.  

Also an interesting tidbit of information:  The keepers were due on Sunday and there is another gentleman in this league that is keeping David Patten.  Where is David Patten even playing this year, you may ask?  In fact, you probably are definitely asking yourself that because I was.  My initial thought was New Orleans or Washington.  He is actually about to be CUT by Cleveland.  And this guy wants to KEEP him.  I voted for a mulligan.  We'll see what happens tonight.

I'm in 3 football leagues this season, the first of which drafted last night.  12 teams, standard scoring (non-PPR), roster as follows: QB, (2) RB, (3) WR/TE, K, DEF.  Here are the results, how did I do?

Keepers: C. Johnson, A. Johnson, Brady

My roster, with the round each player was drafted in parenthesis:

QB - Brady

RB - C. Johnson, Bush (2), J. Jones (4), J. Lewis (5), F. Taylor (7), Norwood (8), Faulk (10)

WR - A. Johnson, Colston (1), D. Jackson (3), Crayton (6), Breaston (9), Winslow (11)

I think this team has potential, but it will live or die with the health of Brady, Colston, and Bush.  Colston when healthy is a WR1.  Brady is the best QB in the league if everything is fine with the knee, and if Bush can manage to play 14 or 15 games he's an acceptable RB2, in my opinion.  I'm lacking a good WR3, but I have alot of depth.  I'm hoping someone from that group can step up and contribute appropriately.  What does everyone think?

In one of my head-to-head leagues I'm going to attempt the all-pitching-and-steals strategy for next year.  This league has 4 keepers and the trade deadline is tomorrow so I don't have much time;  I have to take what I can get last minute to make this work. The only player I currently have to keep that fits the mold is Billingsley, so there's one.   I just moved Granderson and Washburn for Ellsbury, there's two.  I moved Pujols for Haren straight up.  I got robbed, I know.  Whatever, I don't care! Time is of the essence!  I'm attempting to get Halladay/Felix/Lester/Johan/Beckett right now for my last remaining assets (Damon, Bay, Votto, Lilly, Valverde, Sizemore), but nobody is budging.  If that doesn't work, I know I can at least upgrade Billingsley to Felix by throwing in someone.  Felix/Haren/Ellsbury and a PTBN would be a good start, no? 

This rule being that RB's are your bread and butter.  They're the dressing in your salad.  Grab two and grab two EARLY.  Why?  Is it the consistency week to week?  Sure, they are more consistent than WR's.  Are they more consistent than QB's?  No, I don't think so.  They're also more injury prone than QB's.  Predictability?  I'd say it's about even.  I'm currently in 3 fantasy football leagues, all keeper leagues.  I've been in one since 2004, another since 2005, and the 3rd since 2007.  I'VE NEVER WON A PLAYOFF GAME.  I think it may be due to my overall approach regarding QB's, which is basically, "to hell with them".  I dominate fantasy baseball (4 straight money finishes in my main league), so it's not my approach to fantasy sports in general. 

I researched my 3 football leagues to find out who comprised the top 20 last season.  3 leagues X 20 players = 60 players.  Of those 60, here's the breakdown:

40 QB's

18 RB's

2 WR's

So what gives?  Why is there a perpetual emphasis on RB's?  Are QB's really more important?

I'm in a 14 team league with some interesting keeper rules.  A player can only be kept twice in consecutive years, and then he goes back to the draft.  You must keep 3 players.  This is a bonus-heavy league (yardage bonuses and long TD bonuses) so QB's are king.  I'm already decided to keep Schaub.  Usually 12ish QB's are kept and it's just hell if you don't have one.  There's never usually even a starter in the FA pool week-to-week.  The format is QB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE.  I just traded Welker and my 4th round pick for Chris Johnson.  And my last spot is difficult:  I have Gates, who I kept last year.  Therefore he has only one year left of eligibility.  Or I can go with Ward, and his 2 years of eligibility.  I love Ward's talent level but he's got Graham challenging for carries (especially goal line) and Cadillac is still in the mix.  Ward has better overall skills so I expect him to be on the field more, but the Bucs should be pretty bad this year and it's just a dicey situation.  Gates is the sure thing, as far as I'm concerned.  I'm picking around 9th or 10th and it's not a snake draft.

In celebration of Delwyn Young turning 27 yesterday, I tried to take a hard look at what we might have here...

The Delwyn Young trade made in April was viewed mostly as a shoulder-shrugger; the Pirates didn't give up much, and didn't recieve much in return.  I'm not so sure I agree with that assessment.  Let's take a look at his minor league track record:

In 2005, at the age of 22/23, he split time between AA/AAA and hit 305/350/492 in 531 AB's.  A pretty solid season overall but nothing extraordinary.  In 2006 (age 23/24), he hit 273/326/457 in 532 AB's.  At face value this looks like a regression, but if you take a closer look at his skills, you see that he improved.  His contact rate went up from 77 to 80, his walk rate went up from 6.1 to 7.3, and consequently his BB/K ratio went up from .29 to .40.  The stat line regression was due in part to a .310 BABIP as compared to .364 from the previous year.  In 2007, he again repeated AAA at the age of 24/25, and hit 337/384/571.  Skills-wise he treaded water or regressed slightly, but he showed much more power and his BABIP was wildly high at .402.  At this point, he's probably still considered an intriguing young player.  Then last season, in my opinion, his development was inexplicably halted by the Dodgers decision to let him literally rot on their major league bench.  He stayed on the roster for almost the entire season and accumulated 126 AB's, mostly as a pinch hitter.  His problems were also compounded by a second half oblique injury. 

Now, he needs to hit a ton more than he is to make up for the fact that he's playing average to below average defense at a corner outfield position, but I think there's more upside here than most think.  After all, the guy only had 165 major league AB's before this season.  I can't for the life of me understand how the Dodgers rationalized their treatment of Young.  He's a former 4th round pick with a career minor league OPS of .878... and you've given him 165 TOTAL major league AB's by his age 25/26 season?!

As for this year, his line is decent (318/392/411), but the BA is owed to another ridiculous BABIP of .421.  While he's drawing more walks (walk rate of 10.1), he's not making good contact (73%), so he's got sort of a mixed bag so far.  In light of the recent Hinske/Morgan trades, I'd like to see him play OF exclusively for the rest of the season, as his contract is favorable and the Bucs have control for at least a few more years.  Am I out of my mind here?

He's arrived for good.  Still only 22 years old with just under 600 Major League at-bats, his stats, and more importantly his skills, say he's here.  His current projected line is .241, 51 HR, 102 Runs, 105 RBI's, and 11 SB's.  Age 22!  AND... that BA is going to go up inevitably because of his 23% hit rate.  I know projections have to be taken with a grain of salt because anything can happen throughout a season (injuries, slumps, lineup changes, etc.),  but that's just a gaudy line. 

Take a look at his skills, they're all taking steps forward from his rookie season:  CT% up to 78% from 75% last season, BB% up to 9% from 7%, and batting eye (BB/K) up to .43 from .29.  The only real blemish is that he still can't hit lelfites yet, currently at .196 with a .606 OPS.  

One can reasonably expect him to finish this season at .270/ 35-45 HR, 200 total runs/RBI's, and 10ish steals.  That easily makes him a top 3 OF going into next year, especially in keeper leagues, no?  Try to acquire him while his BA still surpesses his value.  

Anyone read Deadspin.com?  It's downright hilarious, I check in everyday.  The intro to a column this morning has to do with the Pirates.. kind of:

http://deadspin.com/5245960/this-column-must-register-with-the-local-authorities?skyline=true&s=i

Need more words need more words need more words need more words Bob Kipper Sid Bream Cecil Espy R.J. Reynolds Randy Tomlin Bill Landrum Zane Smith Peter Paul and Mary Ben Roethlisberger

My main money league, 10 teams mixed, standard 5x5 roto, 7 keepers... I have Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and ARod, so my team is aging.  I really want to deal Lee midseason, and I'll sit on Arod and Soriano for another year unless a good opportunity comes along. 

I've made an offer right now for Hunter Pence straight up, and, if that doesn't go through, I'm going to seek Curtis Granderson.  That seems about fair, no? 

Here's the dilemma.  If neither of those work out, would you try to move Lee for someone like Alex Rios, Shane Victorino, Nate McLouth, Joey Votto, etc.?  I'm inclined to sit on him at that point. 

Thoughts?

My friends and I have had this discussion before, I'll propose it here:  What percentage of fantasy baseball is luck as opposed to skill?  I'm talking beginning to end; It starts first and foremost with player evaluation and then delves into such things as assigning keepers (if applicable), drafting, daily lineup selections (appropriate matchup selection, etc.), and roster management (adds/drops, trades).  For the sake of argument let's assume standard rotisserie 5x5, not head to head or points.  I think it's tough to make a case against it being more skill than luck, but just how big is the dispartiy? Maybe 70/30?