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Something to think about after the Caps allow 3 or more goals against in a game:

This season, when the Caps allow 3 or more goals, more often than not (60% of the time) they follow it with at least 1 more game where they allow 3 or more goals.

50% of the time, when a team scores 3 goals against them, they will follow it with at least 2 additional games where the opponent scores at least 3 goals against.

When they allow 3 or more goals in a game, they are just as likely to follow it with at least a 3 game streak of allowing 3 or more goals against as they are to allow less than 3 goals the next game.

...

If this trend were to continue in the playoffs (adjust accordingly if you think the Caps will perform better or worse statistically in the playoffs) and the team continues averaging 2.77 GF per game, as they are now, if they should say allow 3 goals against in game 1 of a series, there would be a 50-50 chance they would find themselves down 3 games to zero in that series. A bit of fun with stats perhaps, or perhaps not.

Last week under the new system the Caps had a 3 game streak of allowing 3 or more goals.

Last year the Caps averaged (a somewhat gaudy) 3.82 goals per game in the regular season.

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Reading all of these morning-linked articles about the Failure with a Capital F, plus others, and a lot of the comments under each, it seems really sexy to mention big player names,  the need to change systems, and weigh the possibility of firing the coach. Maybe the answer to future success is in there somewhere, maybe not.

It's been mentioned more than once by various people, certainly here, but obviously the word hasn't gotten around so I'll say it again:

• Our D didn't suck. Whether a shutdown D would help the Caps or not, the lack of one did not cost the team this series.
• Our goaltending was more than adequate. In fact was exceptional at times - largely the reason the Caps got the 3-1 series lead in the first place. Goaltending did not cost us the series.

What does remain surprising to me though is that the blocked shot count and PP performance widely cited as problems are largely being used as buckshot for a wide variety of recommendations for the systems, coaching, or personnel changes instead of really dissecting these areas directly for answers. Really, look at those particular items' numbers, they are outrageous. Outrageous: 3%  PP effectiveness and..where are those numbers on blocked shots(?) - we all know them. If either of those numbers is anywhere near reasonable we most likely are moving on.

I spent a lot of time thinking about what specifically these numbers mean, having watched the games and reading various perspectives. I watched Game 7 next to a snarky Pens fan chick on one side and a guy from Montreal on the other. The Pens chick was useless other than for cheering at all the wrong times, but the guy from Montreal was good for bouncing thoughts against.

Talking with Montreal Guy, I mentioned it had occurred to somewhere around game 5 or 6  that in all of the other games and series I've seen various parts of this year, I've noticed when a set play on a PP goes awry: Oh, I see what they tried to do there, it just didn't work. I couldn't recall ever making that mental observation on a Caps PP this series. Montreal Guy agreed with this observation.

I also didn't see much fundamental playmaking in the offensive zone, beyond working the boards -sometimes pretty effectively yes - and "traditional" traffic (applied less and less effectively as the series progressed). But I don't have much recollection of simple fundamental things like give-and-goes, or dropping the puck low then immediately kicking it back out high.

Almost by definition the term "Fundamentals" is not sexy. But without fundamentals what are we left with for offense?  People shooting whenever a lane to the goal appears open, and an over-reliance on Creativity.

With a little more fundamental playmaking there would have been less one-timers where if "I've got a clear look at the goal the goalie's got a clear look at me", less blocked shots, more opportunities to put the goalie out of position, most likely more zone time... basically more quality scoring chances with probably less shots.

It is the coaching staff that makes this happen.

Sergei Fedorov on a post linked from The Rink on whether Bruce deserves blame for the series outcome:
I can only say that Bruce is a terrific person, a great human being. And as a coach he takes great care of all the guys. And at times it seemed to me that he was a bit soft with the guys. Maybe in some situations he should have been tougher [on them].

We have O power, reasonably effective D, and sufficient goaltending. I do not think we need a new coach, just a better appreciation for working on fundamentals with all players, and not just the guys who show up to optional practice on a given day.

Like I'm sure most of you here, I don't make a single decision in my life without consulting the brain trust of humanity that is the Japers' Rink community. The finest, sharpest, collection of people ever assembled under one banner. The wisdom in every post by every individual is a mastery of knowledge, experience, good taste, total relevance, clarity, succinctness, and friendliness. So of course I would ask you guys.

Purely hypothetically, if a cougar (or sugar daddy wannabe if applicable) of a sufficient level of quality wanted to fly you out to watch a Caps game (Your choice of game and city). Would you do it?

I'd just like to take a moment to stick a note in for the Cap's next regular season campaign at the end of this regular season. It's the least I can do given I am being told

Don’t Worry About the Last Game - Worry About The Playoffs :-)

Ted Leonsis (April 14, 2009)

Can't you just feel the confidence, the clarity, the absolute truth that the habits and shortcomings of the regular season are a thing of the past now that our team has gotten past the boring hum-drum regular season.

Thus, this is a note for next regular season. Because it won't apply to the playoffs.

It's a very well-worn subject that - along with great success - this Capitals team has shown a great deal of inconsistency throughout the reglar season. Beyond accounting for injury. It's not particularly news either that they have also shown that they in fact play better after the rare tongue lashing and/or harsh workout is loosed as a last resort. However, as coach Boudreau states:

I hope it doesn't take me coming in and screaming and yelling to get them going . . . You yell at your kids too much, they'll tune you out.

Bruce Boudreau

There is certainly some historical justification for Bruce's concern:

"At some point, players sort of tune things out," general manager George McPhee said. "And that's why the change was made. ... He's a very good coach. I didn't believe it that these things had to happen, but I believe it now, that at some point the players need a new message.

Wilson's dismissal came a month after the Capitals, who were thought to be a sure bet for the playoffs ... finished ninth in the Eastern Conference -- one spot away from a postseason berth -- with a 36-33-11-2 record.

sportsillustrated.com (May 10, 2002)

Given the "tune-out" concern, after numerous unfocused performances throughout this season and a growing collection of  quotes regarding lack of focus from players like Brooks Laich and John Erskine, rather than yell at them, Coach Boudreau's recent response to a poor outing was one more of frustration:

I just have a hard time because, never being able to stick in the NHL, I know how much I would have given to play. Defensively we were so out of whack, but it is over...

Bruce Boudreau

Is this tack from Bruce and Ted the best approach: Assume the team will just play better when the playoffs start? And then cross our fingers at this point again next year?

Assuming this is true, the question remains:

How do we coax the focus, professionalism, determination, pride, team-play out of this talented group of individuals for the next 82 game campaign?

There was no solution to this issue for the entire regular season.

The Capitals team that tuned out Wilson by year 5 of his tenure had 8 players who were 33 years old or older. With names like Bondra and Oates, we counted on these guys for points to win games. If you're yelling at guys after every game who've been around that long ... where do I start?

Today's Capitals team has three players over the age of 32 today. None of these three are particularly expected to score, and they have generally not exceeded this expectation.

Despite what the organization may say, it is still a young team. They are still learning what it takes to build an NHL league championship team versus a tournament championship team. For a number of these players, Bruce has been their only true NHL coach.

These are not Ron Wilson's Capitals

They are at a place where they should be able to take the heat until they show they can light the fire under their own ass every night. Bring it.

Or we can keep adding to the list of players saying puiblically the reason a game was lost was because the team couldn't get up for it. Sure such statements from players may not hurt anyone's length of tenure, but they can't help any either.

I thought about posting this after the playoffs, but depending on how we do some may see it as either an attempted "I told you so," or else whining despite post-season success. Neither would be the case.