The merger as it exists today is 8 CUSA - 8 MWC (7 football):

We have to assume Big XII will add Louisville & BYU (or Cincy). When they do, AF will move to BEast. If the Mormons still refuse to play nice, Temple will replace Cincy in BEast.

I believe the Alliance wants 20 teams - 4 divisions of 5, 2 'conferences' of 10. 9 games against your half so everyone plays everyone. Semifinals = East #1 plays West #2 & East #2 plays West #1. Winners meet in your Alliance Championship Game.

So we need to add 5 full members with football & a non-football school to balance out Hawaii. I believe the Alliance should go after big markets to help tv contract $$$ (the only thing that can keep a conference this big together).

Philadelphia - Temple from MAC.Miami - FIU from SUN. San Antonio - UTSA from FCS/WAC. Salt Lake City - Utah State from WAC. Bay Area - SJSU from WAC. San Diego - SDSU (no-football) from Big West/MWC.

Move SoMiss over to Central & UTEP to Mountain to keep it more regional.

The Alliance doesn't have to take the best football programs based on RPI's now that there's no automatic BCS bid at stake. Outside of middle-of-nowhere West Virginia, Mississippi & Wyoming - all these schools are in metro areas.

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With the Big East sucking up MWC teams to stay relevant & schools abandoning tradition for $$$, I started thinking what could have been. Only NM, Co St, Wyoming & UNLV will be left from the original '99 MWC.

I was wondering if there's room for a BCS conference between the PAC & the Big XII but 2 things ruined the WAC/MWC. Karl Benson adding 6 teams in '96 after 2 yrs on the job & Craig Thompson not getting on ESPN. MWC was a good idea after Benson threw away tradition for San Jose St & small private school in Texas. But I don't understand why they left UTEP, Fresno St & Hawaii out. The MWC 8 + those 3 schools & TCU could have been playing a championship game since '96 when TCU & UNLV were added. Obviously TCU & Utah were offered bids into PAC & Big XII so they would have left regardless of how strong this hypothetical WAC was but Boise St & Nevada could step in as replacements in 2011..

I counted the years the traditional rivals were in the same WAC/MWC conference through 2014 when Air Force leaves to join Navy in BEast.

So could this 12-team conference from 96-'10 w/ Utah & TCU earned an automatic BCS bid? Could it keep it w/ replacements Boise St & Nevada from 2011 on?

Bumped from FanPosts -- ed.

Reorganize the out-of-control conference expansion into 7 BCS conferences based on region of the country. 10 teams each. 9-game conference schedule (everyone plays everyone). 1 out-of-conference BCS game (permanent rivals like FSU-Florida, GA Tech-UGA, Clemson-Sakerlina). 1 non-AQ game vs WAC, CUSA, etc. 1 FCS game against an in-state opponent. 12 regular season games.

No. 1 & No. 2 in each BCS conference play each other again in the Conference Championship game. 7 Champions enter an 8-team playoff with 1 at-large team. Takes 16 games to win the National Championship. 16 teams get a crack at it. 6 playoff games to be played at Rose, Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar, Orange, & a new bowl in the new Indianapolis Colts domed stadium. Game No. 7 the National Championship rotates between the bowl sites like it does now.

So this year, LSU goes 12-0 (9-0), Bama goes 11-1 (8-1) & they play each other again in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. 1 team wins & is the No. 1 seed. If Bama loses they're at-large team, maybe No. 6 seed. LSU loses & is No. 2 seed.

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Reorganize the out-of-control conference expansion into 7 BCS conferences based on region of the country. 10 teams each. 9-game conference schedule (everyone plays everyone). 1 out-of-conference BCS game (permanent rival like FSU-Florida or rotate opponents). 1 non-AQ game vs WAC, CUSA, etc. 1 FCS game against an in-state opponent. 12 regular season games.

#1 & #2 in each BCS conference play each other again in the Conference Championship game. 7 Champions enter an 8-team playoff with 1 at-large team. Takes 16 games to win the National Championship. 16 teams get a crack at it. 6 playoff games to be played at Rose, Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar, Orange, & a new bowl in the new Indianapolis Colts domed stadium. Game #7 the National Championship rotates between the bowl sites like it does now.

• Finally a real eastern conference w/ Penn St as the anchor
  
• ACC classic w/ instate rivals Va Tech & Miami added in
• SEC loses the geographic outliers Arkansas, LSU, Kentucky & picks up NC w/ Wake
  
• Old SWC & Big 12 South

• B1G classic w/ an Iowa for ND trade
• a new conference is born, the GMC stretches from Illinois to Oregon
• PAC-10 classic
  
• military schools are Ind by themselves
• conferences designed to promote what makes college football fun - rivalry games

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7 BCS conferences. 10 teams. 8 team-playoff. 7 BCS conference champions & 1 at-large. 9-game conference schedule. 1 out-of-conference BCS game. 1 non-AQ game. 1 FCS game. 12 regular season games. Up to 15 games to win the National Championship.Conferences based on geography. Teams promoted into BCS are in italics.

• Penn St gets their East Coast Conference from the late 80's put together
  
• Classic ACC + Miami & Va Tech
• SEC expands into that desirable Winston-Salem tv market
• Big 12 South picks up LSU, Arkansas, TCU & Memphis

• close to the original B1G w/ a Iowa for ND trade
• a new conference is born, the GMC stretches from Illinois to Oregon
• classic PAC-10
• military schools are Ind by themselves & play mostly BCS schools

Continue reading this post »

copy the NFL conference way, top 6 are in, top 2 get byes, reward the 5 BCS conf champs (sorry Big East) & give it to 1 wildcard/at-large team. rotate the games through the 4 BCS games & promote the Cotton. try to make the game site more convenient for the higher seeded team.

PLAYOFFS! Sat. Dec. 17th @ 4 & 8

#3 Oklahoma State (11-1, Big 12 Champ) vs. #6 Clemson (10-3, ACC Champ) @ Cotton Bowl

#4 Oregon (11-2, PAC Champ) vs #4 Wisconsin (11-2, B1G Champ) @ Rose Bowl

SEMIFINALS! Mon. Dec 2nd (New Year's Day) @ 4 & 8

#1 LSU (13-0, SEC Champ) vs Oregon/Wisconsin winner @ Sugar Bowl

#2 Alabama (11-1, at-large) vs OSU/Clemson winner @ Orange Bowl

CHAMPIONSHIP! Mon. Dec 9th @ 8

#1 vs #2 @ Fiesta Bowl

Not gonna happen... Start from scratch. Divide the country into 5 regions: Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest & Pacific. Use geography. Put the best 14 schools in each conference. 2-7 team divisions. 9 conference games. Conferences can decide if they need cross-division rivalries or all the Cal schools need to play each other or not. Out of conference, game 10 is against another BCS conference, 11 is FBC, 12 is FCS.

9 states in the East along the Atlantic anchored by 4 NC schools & Buffalo, Boston, NYC, Pittsburgh, DC, Baltimore, Charlotte markets. 10 acc schools, 3 big east, 1 big ten.

6 states in the South anchored by 4 FL schools & Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Nashville markets. 9 sec schools, 4 acc, 1 big east.

8 states in the southwest anchored by 5 TX schools & New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, St. Louis, Denver markets. Comprised of 6 SWC teams in South & 7/8 Big 8 teams. 10 big 12 schools, 3 sec, 1 pac-12.

8 states in the midwest anchored by Mi-Oh & Cleveland, Cincinnati, Louisville, Indianapolis, Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis markets. 11 big ten schools, 2 big east, 1 sec.

7 states closest to the Pacific anchored by 4 CA schools & Salt Lake City, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, LA, Bay Area markets. 11 pac-12 schools, 2 mwc, 1 ind.  Boise St & UNLV fill in the ID & NV footprint & are only 2 non-FBS teams to be promoted. Central Florida, Houston, ECU are the next 3 that missed out on the BCS party.

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Start from scratch. Divide the country into 5 regions: Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest & Pacific. Use geography. Put the best 14 schools in each conference. 2-7 team divisions. 9 conference games. Conferences can decide if they need cross-division rivalries or all the Cal schools need to play each other or not. Out of conference, game 10 is against another BCS conference, 11 is FBC, 12 is FCS.

9 states in the East along the Atlantic anchored by 4 NC schools & Buffalo, Boston, NYC, Pittsburgh, DC, Baltimore, Charlotte markets. 10 acc schools, 3 big east, 1 big ten.

6 states in the South anchored by 4 FL schools & Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Nashville markets. 9 sec schools, 4 acc, 1 big east.

8 states in the southwest anchored by 5 TX schools & New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, St. Louis, Denver markets. Comprised of 6 SWC teams in South & 7/8 Big 8 teams. 10 big 12 schools, 3 sec, 1 pac-12.

8 states in the midwest anchored by Mi-Oh & Cleveland, Cincinnati, Louisville, Indianapolis, Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis markets. 11 big ten schools, 2 big east, 1 sec.

7 states closest to the Pacific anchored by 4 CA schools & Salt Lake City, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, LA, Bay Area markets. 11 pac-12 schools, 2 mwc, 1 ind.  Boise St & UNLV fill in the ID & NV footprint & are only 2 non-FBS teams to be promoted. Central Florida, Houston, ECU are the next 3 that missed out on the BCS party.

Continue reading this post »

Updated as of 10:52 est Thursday, September 29, 2011.

Last year the Pac-10 realized it needed a championship game so it promoted Utah & stole Colorado from the Big XII.  Big Ten also stole Nebraska.

The ACC afraid the SEC would poach its' members for Team 14 fills in the holes between Maryland & Boston College by again raiding the Big East - for Pittsburgh & Syracuse. Then raises the buyout to $20 million.

SEC wanted to be as selective for Team 14 as they were with Texas A&M so they rejected West Virginia & were rejected by Missouri. While they waited Texas & Oklahoma decided to rebuild their conference by raiding the Big East for Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia & TCU. Plus they already knew their Team 14 - BYU (gets to keep BYU-tv 3rd tier rights like Long Horn Network).

Big Ten penetrate the New York City market with BTN by adding Rutgers & Connecticut. The ACC passes on UConn in case Notre Dame & Penn State had wanted to join.

SEC still needs a Team 14 & the only BCS team left & only Big East team left is South Florida.  Realizing Tampa is a large enough tv market & Florida is a huge place, the rest of the SEC adds a 2nd there despite Florida's 'Gentleman's Agreement' to keep a monopoly.

With the Big East dead there is a 6th automatic bid available, the Mountain West & C-USA merge to get it for football-only. The MWC needs 2 more teams - Utah State to get back to Salt Lake City. LA Tech gets promoted from WAC & maybe trades places with UTEP.

Play a 5 game schedule against their division, 2 out-of-division, 1 each against each division from other conference. Division winners play in a conference semi-final then a championship game for the BCS bid.

With Big East football dead, everyone finally gets what they want.  The football schools got to play real football & the Catholics get to have a super 16 basketball league.  The 8 leftover Catholic basketball schools join with the 8 Catholic Atlantic 10 schools.

All the major markets are covered with 3 teams in New York CIty, 3 in Philadelphia, Providence, Washington DC, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Cincinnati, South Bend, Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis.

Finally you have the Sun Belt adopt 3 WAC teams - Texas State, UTSA & New Mexico State. They need a Team 14 - Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens are 1 of the best FCS teams.

And the MAC adds UMass & Temple as full members now that the Atlantic-10 has lost 8 teams.

The End?

Bumped to the front page, because who doesn't like checking out what future conferences may look like.

With the rumors of Texas A&M to SEC, Oklahoma looks around at a depleted Big 12 & wants to call the shots instead of Texas so they lead Oklahoma State, Texas Tech & Texas to the new Pac-16.

Texas A&M & SEC quit flirting & make it official. Texas government insists Baylor is named Team 14. Auburn moves to East division to make room for them. They keep the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry & the Iron Bowl as annual games but Alabama-Tennessee won't be able to play every year. Vanderbilt & Baylor become a new inter-division rivalry of the 2 private schools.  Tennessee gets Texas A&M to replace Alabama on the schedule. Georgia gets Ole Miss since they got to keep their rivalry with Auburn.

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I formed up 5 16-team BCS conferences to participate in the BCS Playoffs. 80 teams arranged in new 4 team divisions based on location & hopefully preserved historic rivalries. The other 46 teams are placed in 3 non-BCS conferences or Independent. They could hope to get an at-large spot with a perfect record.

11 regular season games:

• 1 out of conference game vs non-BCS
• 1 out of conference game vs BCS
• 3 annual conference games vs division (column A,B,C,D)
  
• 3 annual conference games vs out of division rivals (row 1,2,3,4)
• 3 conference games in rotation - if team is A1 - (B2,C3,D4 yr 1), (C2,D3,B4 yr 2), (D2,B3,C4 yr 3)
• Game 12 - Conference Semifinals (A winner vs B, C winner vs D) @ best record's home stadium
  
• Game 13 - Conference Championship in neutral NFL stadium
• Game 14 - BCS Quarterfinals Elite Eight (5 Conference Champions & 3 at-large, could be 13-0 non-BCS team, seeded 1-8)
• Game 15 - BCS Semifinals Final Four (1/8 vs 4/5, 2/7 vs 3/6)
• Game 16 - BCS Championship

1. The Quarterfinals & Semifinals will rotate between the 6 BCS bowls - Rose, Fiesta, Cotton (new), Sugar, Citrus (new/Capital One), Orange - so each hosts the Semi's 2x every 6 years. The Championship will be bidded for like the Super Bowl.

• Bowl Game, Game 12-14 - teams with minimum 6-5 records from regular season & not in the BCS Playoffs can accept bids to bowl games.
  

2 examples of how scheduling will work:

Clemson would play it's division (in column C) - Georgia, South Carolina & Georgia Tech every year plus it's out of division rivals (in row 2) - Florida State, Auburn & Louisville for 6 annual conference games. Final 3 conference games will rotate: D1 Tennessee, A3 South Florida, B4 Mississippi State in year 1 & 4; A1 Florida, B3 Mississippi, D4 Cincinnati in year 2 & 5;  B1 Alabama, D3 Kentucky, A4 Central Florida in year 3 & 6.

Boise State - Utah, Colorado, BYU division. UNLV, Stanford, Washington State out of division rivals.  Rotate B1 Arizona, C2 UCLA, D3 Washington year 1; C1 USC, D2 Oregon State, B3 San Diego State year 2; D1 Oregon, B2 Arizona State, C3 California year 3.

Mock Championship season schedule for Utah:

Continue reading this post »

I think the Big 12 has 4 options if they choose to expand:

BYU & Boise State

A North division of BYU, Boise State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri & Iowa State would be too weak compared to the Texas/Oklahoma division.  They'd have to create an East/West alignment or pair the schools together & zipper down the middle.

Cincinnati & Louisville

Same situation as BYU/Boise State but on the Eastern half of the US. Much less travel than the other options.

San Diego State & UNLV

Would be added to the south with the Texas schools - allowing the Oklahoma schools to rejoin their former Big 8 rivals in the North, Could add some exposure playing in large destination cities.

Memphis & New Mexico

Would be added to the south with the Texas schools - allowing the Oklahoma schools to rejoin their former Big 8 rivals in the North. Much less travel than the other options.

TCU & Houston

The conference is adament about not adding any more teams to saturate the Texas market.  As much as TCU & Houston would love to rejoin their former SWC rivals in an all-Texas division - it's not an option.

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Hypothetical conference setup based on location of schools & distinguishes between public/private schools:

Pac-10 is joined by Hawaii & UNLV.

WAC/MWC keeps Utah & BYU. Adds Colorado, Texas Tech & UTEP.

8 Big 12 schools keep Nebraska.  Add former Southwest Conference members Houston & Arkansas.  Add LSU.

A new conference is formed for private schools.  4 Texas privates are joined by Oklahoma & Air Force in the West.  Tulane, Vandy, Duke & Wake are joined by outliers Miami & Villanova in the East.

Original Big Ten's dream comes true with Notre Dame. Also Cincinnati.

MAC trades Buffalo for Marshall & places them in the non-Ohio division.

SEC fills out it's footprint with cities Memphis, Louisville & Orlando (UCF).

Sun Belt creates divisions - FCS USA to East, Texas St, UTSA to West with LA Tech.

ACC focuses on the south to replace it's 4 privates - Navy, ECU, South Florida & UAB.

The 5 Big East schools finally have a real conference with BC & Temple coming back & the additions of Army, Buffalo, Penn St, Maryland & FCS Delaware.

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The SEC was the 1st in 1992 - adding Arkansas & South Carolina to reach 12 teams, create East & West divisions & play a conference championship game in Atlanta.

In 2005, the ACC raided the Big East of Miami, Virginia Tech & Boston College to reach 12. The championship was in Jacksonville for 3 years, Tampa the past 2 years & Charlotte this year & next.

2010 was a big year because the Big Ten added Nebraska to reach 12 & the Pac-10 added Utah & Colorado to become the Pac-12. The Big Ten will play the championship game in Indianapolis & the Pac-10 decided to play it on the best team's home field.

The Big East has officially announced they'll expand to 10 teams.  The most likely additions are promoting Villanova from FCS & adding Central Florida from C-USA.  I don't see the point in topping there. Put Syracuse, UConn, Rutgers, Pitt, West VA & Nova in the North division.  Louisville, Cincinnati, USF & UCF need 2 more teams for the South division:

1. Delaware - the flagship school of a small state in footprint. The Blue Hens are 1 of the most successful FCS teams is a rival of Villanova.  they announced expansion of the stadum from 22k to 30k.
2. East Carolina - expanding stadium to 50k. is a college town with a passionate fan base. 
3. To facilitate this - the football schools must band together to kick the 7 Catholic schools out. They can join with the 8 Atlantic-10 Catholic schools to create a new 16 team basketball conference.
   

The other BCS team without 12 schools is the Big XII.The midwest is slim pickings with all the good schools taken by the Big Ten.  To expand they must look west:

1. Brigham Young - adds the Salt Lake City market. BYU is a BCS level school & needs someone to show them love.
   
2. Colorado State - adds the Denver market & nice symmetry with the Pac-12 having Utah & Colorado. They can't be any worse than Iowa State so who's to say they don't deserve it.
3. Split the divisions up East/West. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State & Texas Tech join BYU & Colorado State out west.  Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa State are in the east. Protect rivalries with TX-OK, A&M-OK St, Baylor-TX Tech, KS-KS St, Missouri-BYU & CO St-Iowa St.
   

The Mountain West gets the 3rd turn to replace Colorado St & has a 12th spot.

1. UTEP over Houston.
   
2. Utah State to fill a hole in the footprint. They try hard & mean well - I'm sure they can grow into it.
3. Gonzaga as the basketball & non-revenue sports replacement for Hawaii. 
4. TCU-UTEP-NM-AF-UT St-WY in the Mountain & Boise St-NV-UNLV-Fresno St-San Diego St-Hawaii/Gonzaga in the West.

Then Conference USA needs to replace UCF, UTEP & ECU.

1. Temple - needs a conference home.  too good for the mac. not good enough for the big east. stuck in no man's land - close enough to Marshall &...
2. James Madison - a promotion for the FCS team that beat Virginia Tech this season.  They compete with Deleware & are also upgrading their stadium. After WV, UVA, VA Tech & Maryland - James Madison is the 5th best team in the area.
   
3. Out West add Louisiana Tech.

Sun Belt makes a power play to jump over the WAC by stealing UTSA & Texas State for their West division. South Alabama joins the East for football to give them 12 teams.  I like the West with 3 TX, 2 LA & 1 AR school. Great footprint around the Gulf Coast.

Poor WAC only has 3 teams left. They need some major work by merging with the best conference at FCS - the Big Sky.

NORTH - Eastern Washington, Portland State, Idaho, Montana, Montana State, Weber State

SOUTH - San Jose State, Sacramento State, UC Davis, Cal Poly SLO, North Arizona, New Mexico State

Basketball  non-revenue could be a 16 team conference with Seattle & Portland in the North & Oakland & Denver in the South.

The MAC continues to be the MAC with 6 Ohio teams & 3 Michigan & no one caring.

FBS expands to 135 teams in 11 conferences + Notre Dame, Navy & Army.

BCS expands to 73.

"mid-major's" expands to 62.

Currently there are 35 bowl games for 70 teams.

Okay so create a 16 team super conference by telling Utah & BYU it's cool - you don't have to leave. Then you want to keep TCU happy by giving them regional rivalries & travel partners in UTEP, cross-town SMU & Houston.  Continue as planned with the 4 WAC additions.  Okay now you have 16 teams. Alright let's set them up in 4 Quadrants based on geography.

Stop me if you've heard this 1 before.  I kind of sound 14 years too late on this.

Pacific Division:

Hawaii (79-12 for MWC) for football & Gonzaga for non-revenue sports

Fresno St (92-12 for MWC)

San Diego St (78-99 for MWC)

UNLV (96-99 for MWC)

North Division:

Nevada (00-12 for MWC)

Boise St (01-11 for MWC)

Utah (62-99 for MWC)

BYU (62-99 for MWC)

Mountain Division:

Wyoming (62-99 for MWC)

Air Force (62-99 for MWC)

Colorado St (67-99 for MWC)

New Mexico (62-99 for MWC)

Texas Division:

UTEP (67-05 for CUSA)

TCU (96-01 for CUSA then MWC)

SMU (96-05 for CUSA)

Houston (never got to play in WAC)

San Jose St, Tulsa & Rice are left out.  Big Sky upstarts Idaho, Utah St, & New Mexico St never get a crack at FBS. LA Tech stays home. We can rename it the Western Athletic Conference if we want (but the acronym WAC is leads to easy jokes).

Only thing is we need to fix the awful television deal so we can make some ca&h!

Boise State's head-to-head record the past 10 years against all of their opponents since joining the WAC in 2001:

Pac 12 added Colorado & Utah & Big Ten added Nebraska to join ACC, SEC, MAC & C-USA with 12 teams. The Big XII said they'll operate with 10 teams and round robin football Pac-10 style. The Big East is feeling left out with 8 teams.

Villanova will follow UConn & jump from a championship caliber 1-AA program to be the 9th team & allow the Big East to have a real 8 game conference schedule for the 1st time since Boston College left in 2005. Now it sounds like they won't stop there.

When conferences expand they want to add a great football program (i.e. ACC - Miami, Big Ten - Penn State & Nebraska, Mtn West - Boise State) not just filler schools.  There is 1 such program left out there for the Big East to get & that's Texas Christian in the Dallas-Fort Worth market.  TCU has been jumping conferences since the SWC got shut down for cheating - WAC, C-USA, Mtn West while they look for a permanent home.  TCU jumps at the chance to join a BCS conference but travel only makes sense if...

Houston joins the Big East to give TCU a rival & travel partner.  Houston has been fighting for inclusion to the BCS party since the SWC was shut down too.  They've been in the C-USA since 1995 with the rest of the SWC leftovers - SMU & Rice. But Houston is a big commuter school just like...

The largest student body in the nation Central Florida joins to give the Big East a 2nd team in Florida. They're a natural rival for South Florida being in Orlando & Tampa & were in the C-USA together before South Florida was chosen to replace Miami in 2005.

Now the Big East has 12 teams & creates divisions.  A traditional Big East called North division of Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, Pitt, West Virginia & newbie Villanova in 2013-14.  Then an ex-C-USA division called South division of TCU, Houston, South Florida, Central Florida, Louisville & Cincinnati.

What the newest 12 team conference lacks in tight geography it makes up for in large TV markets & ease of access. Rename it the Metro Conference if you want - there used to be a conference with that name.  UConn, Rutgers, Syracuse = NY/NJ/CT NYC market.  Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston, Tampa, Orlando, Cincinnati & Louisville with a championship game in the new 1.8 billion Jets/Giants stadium in NYC.  That should get some ESPN tv money.

C-USA down 2 schools adds a revitalized Temple program after its MAC short term deal is over - giving them a permanent home.  Temple continues its season kick-off Battle for the Liberty Bell rivalry with cross town Villanova. They add Louisiana Tech as the 12th team and place them in the West division with Tulane.

Losing LA Tech leaves the WAC with 5 teams & kills their chances of continuing to exist.  Hawaii leaves the 4 other schools to become an Independent with help from BYU & the Pac-12.

Back to the Mountain West - Air Force decides to join Navy & Army as Independent because of the conference's instability.  With only 5 original MWC teams left, there's nothing the MWC can offer Air Force can't do on it's own as a federally funded military school. 

MWC sits at 5 original 1998 members - Colorado State, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV & San Diego State & 3 new WAC members Boise State, Fresno State & Nevada for 8 teams total. The only thing to do is add the 4 remaining WAC teams Utah State,  San Jose State, New Mexico State & Idaho to become the 9th 12 team conference.

New Mexico State joins the 5 original MWC members in a Mountain (kind of south & east) Division. The other 3 WAC teams join the other 3 WAC teams in a West (north & west) Division.

Now this isn't the shit that Boise State signed up for to advance it's football program.  Now Utah, BYU, TCU or Air Force. They would obviously want to join the Big XII with BYU as their 11th & 12th teams but that could take Boise another decade.  10 years in Big West, 10 in WAC, 10 in MWC & if they're still winning 12-14 games every year, the Big XII would have to take them.

In which case the MWC will have to turn back to that far away island Hawaii as its' 12th team & premier football program.  Might as well change the name back to Western Athletic Conference while they're at it.

After the jump is every conference listed out after this scenario unfolds. 9 12 team conferences, 10 team Sun Belt & 6 Independents for 122 1-A teams. 71 BCS teams with only Boise & BYU left out of the party for now. I ranked the teams 1-122 based on winning percentage for 10 years between 2000 & 2009. Averaged wins are to the right of each team & rank is to the left.

Continue reading this post »

WINNERS

Boise State Broncos, Nevada Wolfpack & Fresno State Bulldogs - finally get to join their peers in the MWC.  They're good schools & football teams and it's win-win for them/the current MWC teams & the MWC.

Houston Cougars - get to go to a soon-to-be BCS conference.  They didn't fit in well with Rice, SMU, Tulsa & Tulane in C-USA West as the big public school & had to share the city with Rice.

San Diego State, UNLV, BYU, TCU - get natural rivals with the addition of the 3 WAC teams & Houston.

Mountain West escapes from expansion virtually unscathed. Losing Utah sucks but it's understandable. BYU is stuck with the MWC after the WAC raid.  The Pac-12 won't add anymore MWC schools.  Big IIX won't add any Texas schools so TCU & Houston are staying put. MWC can create 2 smart 6-team divisions with 2 CA, 2 NV, 1 ID, 1 UT schools in the West & 2 TX, 2 CO, 1 NM & 1 WY schools in the East/Mountain. Creates a Championship Game to be played in Las Vegas, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Houston, Dallas and/or Denver. Really carved out a niche as the in between Pac-12 & Big IIX conference.  Should become a BCS conference without the Super Mountain C-USA game. The only at-risk move would be Big IIX coming after New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force or BYU.

BYU - gets MWC closer to a BCS bid by instigating the expansion to 12 teams by plotting to put their other sports in the WAC forcing this whole thing. Now quit whining & prove it on the field if you think you're so much better than everyone else.

Nevada & Fresno State win double because there won't be any WAC to cut a $5 million check to.  They should call Benson up & say $20 mil would've been fine with them.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs finally get to go back East by replacing Houston in the C-USA & aren't stuck going down with the rest of the WAC

LOSERS

BYU - Pac 10 didn't want you.  Big IIX doesn't want you.  Utah abandoned you.There's no WAC left.  You're non-revenue sports are too good for WCC & Big West.  Your Independent football dream is shot. I do agree your too good for Utah State though.

Unwanted Five:

Hawaii Warriors have been in the WAC since 1979 & have seen 16 schools leave it.  Unlike the rest of the 'Unwanted Five" they are a good football team - 8 wins/year in the 2000s & a BCS Sugar Bowl. Hawaii will go Independent in football & try to schedule home&home's with good teams. Hawaii has the most to lose because they're the only team that has ever won. Rest of its' sports join the non-football Big West's 9 California schools.

New Mexico State Aggies, Utah State Aggies & Idaho Vandals - Go back with their tails between their legs to football-only Sun Belt members after 6-7 failed WAC seasons.  Good riddens. Rest of sports join Hawaii in the Big West (where they belong).

San Jose State Spartans are completely left out in the cold.  There's not a geographic reason like in Hawaii's case why nobody wants them.  They're not as bad as the above 3 teams but they're not good either so unless the state of California cuts their football to save money they must be an Independent.  There's no safety Sun Belt to land in.  Other sports could join he now crowded 14 team Big West.

WAC - 1962 to 2012.  RIP.


Utah State loses twice because they were invited to fill the MWC's possible Utah void with BYU becoming Independent & they said no. Good luck now ever amounting to anything.

Big IIX - there are 8 12-team leagues with Championship games now.  Only you and the Big East can't get it together. The allowances you made Texas have destroyed your conference.

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(Rank among 120 teams in 10 years since 2000 by winning percentage & average wins per year)

I agree BYU is leveraging it's Independence to force MWC to deplete its' safety conference & expand to 12 teams. Houston is the obvious choice with UTEP getting some press & Tulsa being ignored.SMU & Rice are small private schools & MWC has enough private in BYU, Air Force & TCU.

Nevada & Fresno State joining MWC leaves only:

I think MWC teams biggest fear is sharing a conference with Division 1-AA upstarts like NM State, Utah State & Idaho.  The MWC has fought to build a BCS conference to let former Big West teams drag them back down. The biggest loser in this is Hawaii because their football team has won 8 games/year in the 2000s & 6.5/year since 1980. I believe they will become an Independent when the WAC falls apart (do it sooner except for the $5 million buyout)

Big West abandoned football in 2000.  LA Tech joined the WAC in 2001.  New Mexico State & Idaho joined Sun Belt in 2001 then WAC in 2005.  Utah State was so bad they became Independent in 2001, Sun Belt in 2003 & finally WAC in 2005.

The only thing the WAC has going for it is a possible $10 million from Nevada & Fresno State. More likely than Montana & Montana State joining the WAC from 1-AA, LA Tech replaces Houston in C-USA West & New Mexico State, Idaho & Utah State join Sunbelt as football-only members again & the Big West for all other sports.  That would form a 12 team football league (South Alabama is starting a team next year so 13). San Jose State is stuck except to join Hawaii as an Ind.

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This is a breakdown of the Mountain West's winning percentage rank among 120 division 1A teams from 2000-2009 (10 years) with average wins & total wins.

In 2011 Utah will join the Pac-12 with Colorado. In 2012, Brigham Young & Boise State could join the Big XII North because they want to expand the footprint instead of adding more Texas schools.  Also in 2012, Texas Christian & Houston could join the Big East (the only BCS conference without 12 schools) with Central Florida & Memphis. Big East forms South division of South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, TX, Texas Christian, Memphis, TN & Louisville, KY.

This scenario makes ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac-12 & SEC have 12 schools (72 total + Notre Dame) in the BCS.  The winners are the 6 teams joining Utah in the BCS & the losers are the non-BCS conferences - Mountain West, C-USA & WAC.

I propose the solution to this conference realignment is recreating the 16-team WAC from 1996 to 1998. The teams are the same except Nevada, Utah State & Idaho replace Utah, BYU & TCU.

Split the 16 school league into a Mountain division comprised of 3 Texas, 2 Colorado, 1 Oklahoma, 1 Wyoming & 1 New Mexico school and the West division is 3 California, 2 Nevada, 1 Hawaii, 1 Utah &1 Idaho school. Every state in the West with a viable school is represented. The losers are New Mexico State & Lousiness Tech - 2 WAC schools that will have to join the C-USA/Sunbelt merger. Besides them, every WAC school in its' history is either in a BCS conference or in the new WAC-16.

This graph shows the division split with year originally joined WAC, where the school is, rank last season in football, conference they're coming from, # of undergrads & size of football stadium.

Travel isn't too costly despite the conference reaching from Eastern Oklahoma to Hawaii.  Wyoming would play their 7 division opponents & play 2 games against the West division - 1 home/1 away.  In 4 years Wyoming would play all 8 teams in the West with only 1 road trip. 9 conference games should make scheduling easier with enough room for out of conference rivalry games & shots at BCS teams.

the WAC - Mountain vs West Conference Championship Game could be played in San Diego Chargers stadium and/or alternate with Jerry Dome in Dallas.

In basketball Wyoming would play the 15 teams once each & their designated rival (Colorado State or New Mexico) twice for 16 games.

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The battle among conferences for survival has come down to a tug of war between the Mountain West & Big East for the heartland.  The winner follows the Pac-10's precedence as a 16-school super conference. The loser struggles to remain relevant.

The Big XII has lost Colorado & Nebraska & will lose Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma & Oklahoma State next week.  The remains have been nicknamed the 'Little Five' - Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State & Baylor.  After being rejected by the Big Ten & Pac-10, they held a conference call & resolved to band together. This doesn't sound like a big deal in itself but it could have big implications for the Mountain West & Big East.

The Little Five's options are: 1) merge with the Mountain West, 2) merge with the Big East & 3) absorb the C-USA.

Option 1 - The Mountain West now has 10 teams so the merger with Little 5 only requires 1 more team - obvious choice is Houston from the C-USA. Split divisions into East & West.  The other option is keep New Mexico with the other 7 original MWC teams over Boise State. MWC 16 would be a BCS conference is 2012 in it's first season.

(the #s next to each school is rank 1-120 from last season

Option 2 -Look eastward and merge with the 8 Big East schools.  Add Houston again with Memphis & Central Florida.  Memphis has been pledged $10 million annually by the CEO of FedEx to get in a BCS conference.  UCF adds a 2nd school in Florida for symmetry  with the 2 Texas schools.

This leaves the Mountain West stuck with adding Fresno State & Nevada-Reno or Texas El-Paso to reach 12 teams.

Option 3 - absorbing 7 teams from the C-USA. 4 from Texas, 1 from Oklahoma, 1 from Florida & 1 from Tennessee. I don't know if the BCS bid would be preserved with less than 6 teams from the Big XII.

But this option also leaves Mountain West's options limited to expand to 12.

Scheduling would require a 9th conference game.  7 against your division & 2 against the other division.  Colorado State could play K-State in 2012 at home then visit Manhattan, KS in 2016.  The division winners would play a 10th conference game to determine a champion & who receives the automatic BCS bid. State breakdown:

1 California, 1 Nevada, 2 Utah, 1 Idaho, 1 Wyoming, 2 Colorado, 1 New Mexico, 3 Texas, 2 Kansas, 1 Missouri, 1 Iowa

0 Washington, 0 Oregon, 0 Arizona, 0 Dakotas, 0 Montana, 0 Nebraska, 0 Oklahoma

Iowa State might not love flying to San Diego State or Boise State to Houston but with 8 teams in each division - long flights should be minimized.

Big XII's ultimatum to Nebraska & Missouri fails as neither school can commit to staying.  This causes Big XII South to accept the Pac-10's invitation.  Texas legislature demands Baylor's inclusion & Colorado is left out.  They join the Arizona schools in a new division & the Pac-8 keeps its' traditional games.

The Big Ten decides to follow the Pac-16's lead & welcomes Nebraska & Missouri.  Next they expand east to the New York TV market by adding Syracuse & Rutgers from the Big East.  This causes a chain reaction to breakup the Big East & forces Notre Dame's hand.

SEC has to keep up & expands to new markets with Houston from the C-USA, NC State & Virginia Tech from the ACC & West Virginia from the Big East.

ACC absorbs the 5 leftover Big East teams & has their pick of 1 C-USA team.

The Big XII's demise leaves Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State & Iowa State out in the cold but the Mountain West is on the cusp of becoming a BCS conference, especially now with the Big XII & Big East folding.  MW adds 3 out of 4 Big XII teams and adds the other traditional WAC teams - UTEP, Hawaii, Fresno State & a new one - Boise State.  Meanwhile, Iowa State is stuck becoming the 14th team in the MAC.

This is my plan for conference expansion.  When it's all over, 16 teams will have changed conference. 7 teams will be promoted from non-BCS to BCS conferences.  The Mountain West's 'Big 3', 3 CUSA East teams & Temple.  The 6 12-team league BCS conference winners & 2 at-large teams will play in a 8 team playoff.  The quarterfinals will be played at the Orange, Sugar, Fiesta & Rose bowls.  Winners will advance to the semifinals & then the NCAA College Football Championship.  Other teams will continue to play in the existing bowl games like the Cotton & Papajohns.com.

Current TV deals for each conference & payout:

* Big Ten: $242 million ($22 mil each)
* SEC: $205 million ($17.08 mill each)
* ACC: $155 million ($12.9 mil each) (new deal)
* Big 12: $78 million ($6.5 mil each)
* Pac-10: $58 million ($5.8 mil each)
* Big East: $2.8 million per football school

(the numbers after each school are its ranking 1-120 after last season)

Big Ten decides to add a 12th team to play a conference championship game.  After being rejected by Notre Dame again, they add Missouri for the St. Louis & Kansas City TV markets. Conference is divided into East & West.

Now the only major conference besides the Big East without a championship game, the Pac-10 decides to expand to 12.  They add Colorado & Utah for the Denver & Salt Lake City TV markets. Division follows the ACC model instead of North & South - separating teams from their natural rival.

The Big 12 must replace the 2 North division teams it lost so it adds Texas Christian & Brigham Young. Oklahoma agrees to move to the North divisions for more balance in the conference.

The SEC & ACC sit out this round of conference expansion but the Big East must add 4 teams to stay relevant.  They promoted Cincinnati, Louisville & South Florida from Conference USA in 2005 and continue now by adding Central Florida, East Carolina & Memphis. The 12th team is Temple, a Big East football-only member from 1991-2004.  The 6 former C-USA schools form the South division & the older Big East teams form the North.

The Big East spins off its' 8 non-football schools (including Notre Dame) into a different non-affiliated league.

The Mountain West was raid of its' 'Big 3' by the Big 12 & Pac-10, leaving the conference with 6 teams. There were plans to add Boise State as the 10th team & possible expansion to 12 for a championship game.  MWC agrees to merge back with the Western Athletic Conference to form a 12 team league. 

The WAC kicks out it's 3 newest teams from 2005 - Idaho, New Mexico State & Utah State. Louisiana Tech leaves to join a conference back East & is replaced by Texas El-Paso, a former member from 1967-2005. The reunited conference is split into the Mountain West teams' division & the newer WAC teams.

There are 8 conference games, copying the ACC's model: 5 division games, 1 permanent out of division rival, & rotate the other 2 out of division games.

Air Force & Hawaii - Air Force has the jets to fly this far every other year

Colorado State & UTEP - both joined the WAC in 1967

UNLV & Nevada - The Battle for Nevada & the Fremont Cannon

New Mexico & San Jose State - Spanish sounding places

San Diego State & Fresno State - student bodies hate each other

Wyoming & Boise State - closet in geography


C-USA is left scrambling after losing another 3 teams so it welcomes Louisiana Tech from the WAC as its' 10th team. Then promotes Middle Tennessee State & North Texas from the Sunbelt.

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