I'm not talking about May 17, 2010, I'm talking about May 17, 2007.  The Cubs were going to fall even farther back that night with a 6-5 loss in one of the Cubs last games at Shea Stadium.  I am 100% convinced that this club needs Lou to resign, be fired, or have a full-on energy transplant of some kind but the Cubs have been in this same situation of going sub .500 in their last 10 and being 6 games out of first place on this very date just three years ago in a Central Division Championship year.  In 2009, they were 1.5 games out of first place.  Which outcome would you like to see this team replicate?  2007 or 2009?

Okay and now I see that we are 5.5 games out of first and 6.0 out of the Wild Card.  The NL Central is pretty week this year and we are in an even better position than 2007.  It is fun to look at the different spots at where teams were historically and MLB.com makes it so easy since 2003.  I wish they would get something going so you could look at any date in MLB history but that would be one hell of a scroll down box, maybe too much to ask.

It was a nice thought.  It worked for a couple of weeks.  Tom Gorzelanny has turned back into a pumpkin.  He gave up 5 runs to the Pirates, the second worst offensive team in the league.  Zambrano is currently getting shelled.  The experiment is over.  The dream is dead.  Time to switch back to normal. 

(more after the jump)

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Every columnist I see is picking the Cards to win the division.  Talking about what a great season they had last year.  Does anyone realize how lucky the Cardinals were last year and how unlikely it is that they repeat their success?  I'm not sure they are even a .500 team.

I'm not jealous that they are the consensus pick for No. 1 (it certainly didn't do the Cubs any good in 2009) but the lack of analysis in the 2009 Cardinals season is very odd.

Continue reading this post »

John Sickels runs a very good SBNation blog called MinorLeagueBall.com.  Today he wrote up a profile of Randy Wells which you can check out here: Link

You should go over and give a click to John's website but I'll give you a brief preview.

Randy Wells Profile

Randy Wells was drafted by the Cubs in 2002, a 38th round pick from Southwestern Illinois Community College. Originally a catcher, he converted to pitching late in 2003, then posted a 4.43 ERA with a 121/40 K/BB in 108 innings for Class A Lansing in 2004. He had a decent fastball and usually threw strikes, but needed refinement with his secondary pitches, rating as a Grade C prospect at that point and not making the '05 book.

He took a big step forward in 2005, going 10-2, 2.74 with a 106/22 K/BB ratio in 99 innings for Daytona in the Florida State League, allowing 93 hits. His velocity dipped a bit into the mid-to-upper-80s, but his curveball and changeup improved, and his control was very good. I gave him a Grade C in the 2006 book, noting that he didn't receive much attention but that he could end up as a "back end of the pitching staff guy" if he continued to progress.

.......continued for four or five more paragraphs.  I found it very interesting and more about Wells than you might even want to know, very good info.

The Cardinals traded Jess Todd to the Cleveland Indians to finalize the trade for Mark DeRosa.

Entering the season, John Sickels posted the Cardinals top 20 prospects.

"1) Colby Rasmus, OF, Grade A-: I’m going to cut him some slack due to youth. Power, speed, walks, defense are all still here. Not going to hit for a great average right away.

2) Brett Wallace, 3B, Grade A-: Monster bat should be ready within a year. Glove at third should be adequate in the short run.

3) Chris Perez, RHP, Grade B+: Outstanding closer-quality stuff, just needs to throw strikes.

4) Daryl Jones, OF, Grade B: I buy into the improvement being real. Has always had the tools and skills improved rapidly this year. This is an aggressive grade but I’m comfortable with it.

5) Jess Todd, RHP, Grade B-: Strike-throwing inning-eater type if used as a starter, could be more dominant in shorter stretches if used in pen.

Click on the Sickels link if you want to see the full list, but basically Rasmus isn't officially a prospect anymore (good young player, but he lost prospect status when he hit 130 at-bats), Wallace has already been traded, and Perez has been traded too.  So according to Sickels, Todd would have been the Cards No. 2 prospect left.

More.......

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First and foremost with any Cardinals team there is Albert Pujols.  The stat that pops out to me is .723 SLG.  Take a look at the list of the single season leaders for slugging average.  You have a mix of old-timers, 1990s/2000s roid users, and a couple of Coors Field inflated seasons until you get to around No. 54: Jim Thome slugged .677 in 2002.  Now Albert Pujols slugged .671 in 2006 and he is clearly capable of slugging .680 and besting Thome's 2002.  Even then, I would say Albert Pujols is set for a split along his 2006 season where he hits more doubles instead of HRs.  Bottom line: Albert Pujols had one of the single best halves in baseball: Cards are 49-42

Next, take a look at Ryan Franklin.  He has converted 21 of his 22 SV situations.  His one blown save?  He even ended up getting the win.  Franklin's 2009 line is 0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and a .165 BAA.  His 07 & 08 combined line is 3.28 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .256 BAA.  For his 2009 numbers to normalize... well just look at his 2006 splits to get an idea.

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Jake Fox hit two more HRs tonight to bring his total to 11. 

http://iowa.cubs.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t451&t=g_box&gid=2009_04_27_iowaaa_nasaaa_1

Say what you will, but this is a great story for now.  It would be a huge step back defensively but if Lee hits the DL, we don't really have a choice but to play Hoffpauir at 1B and maybe give Fox some ABs in RF.  He's smashing he ball right now and the Cubs are dinged up with no offense.

Tigers release Gary Sheffield

Wow, not sure if I understand this one.  I'm guessing they called around to see if anyone was interested in trading for him with the Tigers eating some/all of his salary and no one was interested?  They couldn't even get a minor league player for him.  They must want Marcus Thames or Jeff Larish to really get a chance to play. 

Cue the people who say we should sign Sheffield, but I don't think he can play OF anymore.

Peavy Deal Dead

LAS VEGAS -- San Diego general manager Kevin Towers just told reporters that a proposed deal to send pitcher Jake Peavy to the Chicago Cubs was dead.

"It doesn't look like anything is going to happen with the Cubs," Towers said.

Towers indicated that Cubs GM Jim Hendry pulled out of the deal.

"He said he's got other things going on. I respect his position," Towers said.

Towers will meet with team CEO Sandy Alderson on Monday and speak with Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, in the coming days to see where they go next.

Towers said one option is pulling Peavy off the trading block and going into the 2009 season with him at the front of the starting rotation.

-- Corey Brock

Now the fact that Furcal turned down the A's offer of 4 years for somewhere between $35M-$40M isn't exactly 'news'  but I haven't seen any FanPosts about the market for Furcal being up in the air now.

I know Lou seems obbessed with getting a left-handed power hitter for the OF, but I think the team solves just as many problems by signing Furcal.  You get a left-handed bat while allowing the team to use Theriot as a backup SS and 2B.  Trade Cedeno for anything and that solves the extra roster spot. 

Now with Furcal, you have a TRUE lead-off hitter, a left handed bat, and an upgrade defensivley at SS.  I have argued before that Furcal wasn't worth the $$$ upgrade and ironically I've changed my mind as the economy has worsened.  That may seem foolish, but the Cubs seem determined on signing a left-handed OF.  Doesn't it make more sense to sign a switch hitting defensive upgrade WHILE also keeping open the option to have the left-handed OF you are paying $11M in '09, $13M, in '10, and $13M in '11, improve his play and prove his worth?!

I mean if we get to next year and we have signed Adam Dunn to a big contract and Felix Pie and Fukudome come out and have great spring trainings, you don't even have room to play everybody.  Now it's very unlikely both Fukudome and Pie would come out and have great springs given their track record, but signing Furcal at least keeps the team more flexible.

Lineups galore:

SS Furcal

1B Lee

C Soto

3B Ramirez

LF Soriano

RF Fukudome

2B DeRosa

CF Johnson/Pie

Or put DeRosa in the 2nd spot and move everyone down

SS Furcal

2B Theriot

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

LF Soriano

C Soto

RF DeRosa

CF Johnson/Pie

Anyway, those are my two cents.  To Furcal supporters I argued with earlier, I eat my hat but only if the Cubs are 100% going to sign a big free agent who can hit left-handed.

He bats left-handed.

He has good defense and can play CF or RF.

He can provide veteran leadership and is hungry to make it to the postseason.

He even played in Chicago last year and loved playing for Lou Pinella in the past.

In case you can't figure it out, I'm talking about Ken Griffey, Jr and the White Sox just declined his 2009 option making him a free agent for the year.

Blast away but I don't see a better situation from what else is out there.  With a combination of Griffey, Pie, and Fukudome, Lou would have three options to play CF and  RF.  Re-sign Reed Johnson or a righty bat who can play all three OF positions and you are set for your 2008.

Are we going to get the Griffey with a .288/.373/.547 career line?  No of course not, but we are going to get someone who can hit right-handed pitching well, is most comfortable hitting in the 3-spot, continues to get respect from around the league, and I think would be a guy who would come in looking for a WS championship and not give a damn about the stupid things attached to the Cubs WS drought.

The one downside is that his numbers against lefties are not good.  They aren't even playable.  However, Jim Edmonds got few at-bats against lefties and his small sample size is even worse than Griffey's in 2008. 

As for lineups, I hope that Lou would go with Griffey's comfort as a 3rd guy in the order and trot out something like this:

Soriano

Lee

Griffey

Ramirez

Soto

DeRosa

Pie/Fukudome

Theriot

or even better

Theriot

Lee

Griffey

Ramirez

Soriano

Soto

DeRosa

Pie/Fukudome

against lefties I'm more stumped as to how to put a lineup together which again doesn't make this the prefect situation but I'm stumped to find a more realistic one out there.  Plus I wouldn't discount the drive in Griffey for a WS title ESPECIALLY if his career could come full circle with him winning it with Lou Pinella as his manager.

I know Bill Simmons is one of those guys you hate or love, but I think regardless of your feelings toward him, you will find this piece very interesting.

Manny Being Manipulated

It brings up a lot of interesting questions that no one seemed to be asking around the time that Manny was being traded.  Why am I posting this on a Cubs board?  Well besides it's just being a well-written baseball piece, this section caught my eye:

"When Ortiz and Manny were clicking at the same time, like for the first few playoff games last October, the Red Sox simply couldn't be defeated. We had the modern-day Ruth and Gehrig and everyone else knew it.19 Call me crazy, call me nuts, call me a fool ... but I wasn't enthusiastic about giving that up without a reason that surpassed, "Uh-oh, Manny is acting up again." I also believe -- fervently -- that Boston fans needed Manny in our lives. Remember the way Sox fans behaved before October 2004? Tight as a drum, always expecting the worst? Manny never noticed the nail-chewing, knuckle-cracking and hair-pulling. The negative radio shows and columns never bugged him. He just kept showing up with that same dopey smile and cranking line drives. You could say he loosened up the entire city -- never receiving enough credit for this, by the way -- and when other self-proclaimed "Idiots" like Millar and Damon became his partners in crime, we ended up winning the 2004 World Series. Coincidence? I say no. If I had to pick a movie character to describe Manny's effect on the team and its fans, it would be Dunphy from "Outside Providence," the juvenile delinquent who showed up at the uptight '70s prep school, lightened things up, and within a few weeks, everyone knew how to roll a joint."

Do the Cubs need a leader who just doesn't give a shit and plays the game?  Now I know that Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, DeRosa, etc. all talk about how the drought doesn't come into their minds, but you can tell just by watching them in the playoffs that this is going through their minds.  As soon as a game starts to slip, things get more tense, guys seem to start pushing more and everything goes downhill from there. 

Perhaps I can say this now because it's the off-season but I have lost some of my own tightness with this 2008 team.  There's no definite team that will win the World Series, the Cubs will get there eventually, there's nothing I can do in the meantime.  Do we need one of the Cubs players to just come out and lead the team in this attitude?  Who could it be? 

One last thing about the playoffs is I felt that no one player did take the lead of this team.  Not Zambrano, not Lee, not Ramirez, not Wood, and certainly not Soriano.  Maybe that's how you win games as a team during the regular season, but do you need one guy to lead a team through the post-season to victory?

I don't see his name being mentioned at all as a SS replacement.  He had a bad 2008 (this is a fixed typo as posted out in first post), he's 33, but he has good defense and good .OBP. 

Is he a plan B?  plan C? Not a plan at all?  He might find his way into the Central via the Cardinals. 

Personally he seems like a guy to avoid if only because he's right-handed to boot.

Words: 5, 4, 3, 2 DONE!

All right, I searched the archives to see what has been written about this guy and I couldn't find anything recent.

Very quietly Shin-Soo Choo has put up .309/.397/.549 in 317 ABs with 14 HR and 28 2Bs while starting in LF or RF since the begining of June.

What are your guys' take on him?  John had him in his top 50 batters list of 2003.  Is he just a slow starter or ready to make a step to above-average/elite OF now that he has a starting job?  Maybe he'll be the Carlos Quentin of 2009?

Free Agents:

Kerry Wood

Ryan Dempster

Bobby Howry (THANK GOD!)

Jon Lieber

Jim Edmonds

Reed Johnson

Daryle Ward

Chad Fox

In:

Carlos Zambrano

Rich Harden

Ted Lilly

Jason Marquis

Geovany Soto

Derek Lee

Mark DeRosa

Ryan Theriot

Aramis Ramirez

Alfonso Soriano

Felix Pie

Kosuke Fukudome

Carlos Marmol

Jeff Samardzjia

Michael Wuertz

Neal Cotts

Koyie Hill

Rich Hill

Ronny Cedeno

Mike Fontenot

any minor league guy you can imagine, etc.

Dempster, Wood, Edmonds, and Johnson were so intergal to the Cubs success, I can't see them all staying and the Cubs being able to afford it.  Nor would I necesarrily book on Edmonds returning to form.  Dempster and Wood are crapshoots, but given the feelings of 2008, why would you stay?

Can Marshall be the No. 4 starter?  I think so, but who is the No. 6 guy then to fill in for injuries?  Do we want to sign someone to be a No. 6 to stretch out Harden?

Ugh, who cares?  This team is lead by Ramirez and Soriano who will just not show up in the posteason again.

God this offense blows chunks when it gets to the post-season

Soriano 3-29 (worst contract ever for a POS!)

Theriot 5-18 ( all crappy singles)

Lee 0-E (seriously all-time best regular season 1B, when he gets to playoffs, no power, no glove!  thanks moron!)

Ramirez 2-20 (with one double, NO HR), stupid idiot

DeRosa 6-16 ( we do not deserve you, nor do you deserve us, you clearly aren't a crappy ass Cub)

Soto 1-12 (thanks for the HR last year, but you aren't doing crap this time around, oh and now our pitchers are sucking.  Way to calm them, thanks!)

Wow, just wow.  Edmonds and Fukudome are the new Felix Pie and Jacque Jones/Michael Barrett.

Even if Harden, Zambrano, and Dempster threw no-hitters this crappy ass 'major league team', '2nd best-major league team' would still lose!

Good Riddance I say!  The curse lives on.... so does wine.... and Old Style

Soriano:   2-19, 6 K, 1 BB, 0 XBH, 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 SB

Theriot:    5-19, 2K, 1 BB, 0 XBH, 0 R, 1RBI, 1 SB

Lee:          5-15, 4K, 2 BB, 0 XBH, 1 R, 0 RBI, 0 SB

Ramirez:   1-16, 5K, 1 BB, 1 XBH, 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 SB

Soto:          1-9, 2K, 3 BB, 1 XBH, 1 R, 2 RBI, 0 SB

DeRosa:     5-13, 2 K, 2 BB, 1 XBH, 2 R, 3 RBI, 0 SB

Those are the six regulars. Jason Kendall and Jacque Jones had some playoff time for the Cubs last year.  Edmonds and Fukudome have some playing time for the Cubs this year, but really those six guys are the core.

Combined they are 19 for 91 (.208 AVG), 21:10 K:B ratio, 3 XBH, 4 R, 6 RBI, 1 SB over 4 games.  When your offense does that, it doesn't matter how many walks your pitchers give up.  You aren't going to win any games. 

DeRosa is clearly doing his job.  Theriot is doing his job of getting slap singles.  Lee has a nice average, but we need him to start hitting for power.  Soriano and Ramirez and Soto need to start hitting PERIOD.  Without that, the crowd, the walks, the anything and everything doesn't matter.

ADDED:  To steal a political mantra, "it's the offense stupid!"  We are averaging 2 runs a game between 2007 & 2008 postseason games.  To provide some perspective, 3 of  the 28 games in the 2007 postseason were won by teams that scored 2 runs or less.

Tribune Story

"Felix Pie earned the final National League Division Series roster spot Tuesday as the Cubs decided to go with a defensive outfielder instead of slugger Micah Hoffpauir.

Pie hit only .243 in 43 games for the Cubs, but with Mark DeRosa's sore left calf, the Cubs may need a late-inning defensive replacement in right field if DeRosa gets a start in the outfield.

Hoffpauir hit .342 for the Cubs in 33 games, but is considered a defensive liability in either left or right field. Hoffpauir, catcher Koyie Hill and pitchers Michael Wuertz and Kevin Hart will report to the Cubs' facility in Mesa, Ariz., to continue working out in case they are needed for the NL Championship Series when the Cubs can change the rosters if necessary."

For a series that has the potential to be a 3-5 game pitching duel, this makes sense.  Gotta have his defense in CF and his speed for pinch-running over Micah's mashing.

Frank DeFord: The Cubs self-fulfilling championship drought

"In medieval Europe, when people were interested in turning lead into gold, there was a saying that maintained that this was really an easy thing to accomplish. Piece o' cake. Just throughout the alchemy process you could never once think of the word "hippopotamus."

Obviously, once you heard that condition, the would-be alchemist could think only of hippopotamus, and thus it was that nobody ever turned lead into gold.

I believe the same thing holds true with the Chicago Cubs, who have not won a World Series for exactly a century, since 1908. The Cubbies would be a breeze to win this year if nobody ever mentioned ... 1908.

Unfortunately, try it. It's impossible."

Then it gets weird....

The Rest of the Story

What the hell is he talking about?  Is there some kind of code I'm not privy to?  I never read anything that makes less sense in my life.  Maybe I'm just too young?

If you take the last 162 games played into account:

Cubs  96-66 .592

Cards 86-76 .530

Brews 81-81 .500

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp?ymd=20070604

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

The two best teams in baseball last year (Indians and Red Sox) finished 2007 at 96-66 just to give you a sense what's going on here.

 As for the lower parts of the NL Central, is it time to start worrying more about the Cardinals than the Brewers?  I'm going with yes.

I'm sure you all are familiar with the theory of day baseball being the reason for the Cubs failure to win the World Series for 100 years.  I for one am a big believer in the theory.  In an era where we sweat out pitch counts and days off, what about the higher amount of sweat standing out in a hot Chicago summer day versus a warm Chicago night?  This is where the infamous phrase "June Swoon" gets its origin.   The toll of playing extra days in the sun while most teams are playing at night catches up to the Cubs.  The loses mount, the complaints begin. 

I'd personally like to thank the schedulers for scheduling as few home games in June and July for the Cubs as possible.  You could not have picked a better season.  Even the schedule goes the Cubs way.

For entertainment, please check out VivaElBirdos.com and BrewCrewBall.com.  There seems to be a theme that the Cubs are not for real.  They are propped up by their schedule, getting too lucky, or just overall playing above their heads.  Relish the irony.

This came as a little blurb at the bottom of an article in the Minneapolis-St.Paul Star Tribune:

"Note: The Cubs are interested in trading for closer Joe Nathan if he's available."

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/12473986.html

I think this is the perfect example of a rumor that will be quashed within an hour or two by team officials.  With a bullpen of Wood, Howry, and Marmol backed up by Wuertz, Eyre, and Hart, the draft 5 situation of Tim Lahey, and many other plan Cs in the minors, why on earth would Hendry go after Nathan?  He is 34, will be a free agent next year, would cost more than any other Cubs bullpen guy ($6M for '08) and could certainly ask for much more in the free agent market.  

Maybe it's a sign Hendry is willing to give up Marmol, but this just seems like a lot of smoke.  Do writers do this kind of stuff just to get hits?  In this day and age it doesn't seem like writers' care about their creditability on trade rumors.  They just care about the bottom line and getting as much traffic as possible to their stories.

Several links to bring in Fukudomas:

Check out that arm!

See ya!

What an eye!

More HR goodness

Imagine if Soriano took pitches like this

Out of the Park!

Look, he's already a Cub in Wikipedia

Be sure to send him a thank you note for picking the Cubs

In case you don't get the title of this diary