Myers wasn't on the Phillies ALCS roster and almost certainly won't be on the World Series roster. The Phillies have enough arbitration raises(and possibly inking Jayson Werth to a long-term deal) that they probably won't even bother offering anything to Myers. He won't net the Phillies any compensation, so there's no need for them to offer arbitration. Myers had hip surgery in 2009, and he pitched poorly before and after it, so it's possible he comes cheap. You might remember he was the Phillies closer back in 2007, and he actually liked the role then(he was upset when they got Lidge and made him a starter), but I'm not sure how he feels now. Anyway, his stats as a reliever in 2007:

53.1 ip 46 h 17 er 64 so 18 bb 2.87 era

His FIP was 3.75 according to FanGraphs but I can't figure out how to split his time starting and relieving there(he was awful in three starts, an ERA over 9 in 15 innings and those innings could've helped kill his FIP).

If he comes cheaply, I think he's worth trying out as a reliever again.

I don't have class Monday so if there are gonna be some other Rays fans there I might grab a ticket off StubHub or something and take the train up. Rutgers football is playing Cincinnati that day at 4, so I might wind up going to that, but if anyone's interested in going let me know and I'll see what happens. Also if the Rays manage to get back in the race and that last series vs. the Yankees matters, I'd be up for a get-together at a bar or something to watch those games.

(I'm making this thread now because who knows when I'll wake up tomorrow)

Just because the Rays are off doesn't mean you can't root for an inadequate offense, since basically every affiliate has problems hitting. Anyway, it's an off day and there are enough prospects pitching(and I just bought an milb.tv subscription!) so that's worth making a thread. Your game times(EDT of course) and starters:

Durham: Doubleheader starting at 1:05, Jeremy Hellickson and Carlos Hernandez

Montgomery: 8:05 Rayner Oliveros

Charlotte: 7:05 Darin Downs(I think. Could be Brian Flores but I think he's just a spot starter).

Bowling Green: off :(

Hudson Valley: 7:05! Jason McEachern! On milb.tv!

Princeton: 7:05 Julius Dettrich

GCL Rays: 12:00 who knows? It might he Talbot's day to throw a few innings on rehab.

I'll be posting here periodically, mostly during the Hellickson/McEachern starts.

Four choices... who'll it be?

S e v e n t y  f i v e  w o r d s  S e v e n t y  f i v e  w o r d s  S e v e n t y  f i v e  w o r d s  S e v e n t y  f i v e  w o r d s  S e v e n t y  f i v e  w o r d s 

His MLB debut, he didn't walk a batter in 5.1 innings against the Yankees:

His release point was at or below the line, and strikes ensued. His next appearance was in relief against Minnesota. Both outs he got were strikeouts, and he didn't issue a walk.

Looks like his release point was about the same. Next time out was a start against Baltimore, where he walked 3 in 5.1 innings:

Uh oh, his release point crept upwards. Then there was today's abortion of a start:

via brooksbaseball.net

David Price needs to get low.

Depending on who you ask, the Rays are either 4 or 5 games under their pythagorean record entering play on June 16th. Playing below a pyth record is generally attributed to luck, though I'm sure people smarter than me have other reasons(for instance, a poor bullpen can often cause a team to play below it). My question is: Does this luck "normalize" over the course of a season? That is, is it fair to say "The Rays have played better than their record, their luck will even out the rest of the year?"

The best way I could figure to test it was to see if first-half pyth record had any correlation to second-half pyth. I first thought to test at June 16th and compare it to end-year data, but obviously there are more games played in the June 16-end year period and more game ostensibly leads to more variance in pyth records.

So. To test this, I took data for the previous 5 seasons(2004-2008), using X WL on MLB.com's standings. First I checked how teams were playing on June 30th(which is a rough estimate of mid-season. This year the season started later so 2009's midpoint is sometime in early July) and compared it to how they did at the end of the year. For example, in 2008, the Rays were +3 over their pythagorean record on June 30th, and +6 at the end of the season. Thus, they played 3 games their pythagorean record in both the first and second halves of the season. Let's see if everyone was this consistent.

via i39.tinypic.com

Note that the extremes(8 games over and under) are 1 case and the 6/7 ones have very limited data

I found it somewhat surprising that on average, teams who played 3, 2, or 1 games over their pyth and 1, 2, or 3 games UNDER their pyth all played worse(in regards to their pyth) in the 2nd half. Of course, playing even in the 1st half doesn't fit under that. That's probably just statistical noise and it basically tells me 5 years isn't enough of a sample.

Basically what I figured coming in is that pyth records are part luck, but what part depends on each team. Has any research been done into this? I'll probably go back further than 5 years when I have the time.

Mock is this weekend, looking at HS catchers(Tommy Joseph, Max Stassi) and pitchers(I really like Garrett Gould) for the first round. Who do you guys like? And any 2nd/3rd round guys you'd like to throw out there? I'm probably going to go HS all three rounds unless a guy like Brett Jackson slips. I'm not too thrilled with the "next tier" of college pitchers after the 1st round suspects.

If you remember, last year in the international signing period we have four guys bonuses over $100,000: SS Julian Morillo, SS Hector Guevara, C Omar Narvaez, and RHP Wilmer Sabala. VSL stats of course mean very little, and we're talking about 4 games here, but it's nice to see our international spending at work...

SS Guavara: 5-15 so far, hit a walk-off HR(so you know he's clutch)

C Narvaez: 7-12 with a double and 2 steals, also caught stealing twice(should be starting over Navarro right now imo)

RHP Sabala: Worked twice in relief, 3.2 innings, 4 strikeouts, no walks, 1 unearned run

Morillo was signed out of the Dominican so he may be with the DSL Rays, whose season begins May 30th. Here's what BaseballAmerica had on these guys last year:

SS Julian Morillo, Dominican Republic, age 16, $210,000. "At around 5-foot-10, 165 pounds, Morillo is a good defensive shortstop with good hands, good first-step quickness and a good arm."

SS Hector Guevara, Venezuela, 16. "Guevara improved his stock leading up to July 2, improving his speed from 7.25 seconds in the 60-yard dash to 6.9 upon signing."

C Omar Narvaez, Venezuela, 16. "Narvaez, a switch-hitting catcher, is around 5-foot-11, 170 pounds and projects to hit for some power. He has good hands and agility behind the plate."

RHP Wilmer Sabala, Venezuela, 16. "Sabala is a 6-foot-2 righthander who could gain another inch or two. Some scouts saw him working at 85-86 mph, but his fastball has been up to 88-89 mph at his best with some movement."