SB Nation User Blog: Instant Replay Umpire

The Ultimate Way to Judge the AL West

Instant Replay Umpire — Wed, 04 Jan 2006 13:31:03 -0000

Odds to win the World Series as of today...

So Cal Angels 9:1
Oakland Athletics 10:1
Texas Rangers 45:1
Seattle Mariners 80:1

So if you bet on the A's and put down a dollar and they win, you get back 10 dollars.

Top three rankings for the American League you ask?

New York Skanks 4:1
Boston Red Sux 6:1
Chicago White Socks 8:1

So the A's you can say are about 1-4 win underdogs to the Angels for the division, and about 3-7 win underdogs to the Red Sux for the wild card.

If you can find an in-efficiency in gambling, then you can take it to the BANK !

Oakland Raiders should hire Paul DePodesta

Instant Replay Umpire — Wed, 07 Dec 2005 21:00:40 -0000

to run their Research & Development Department.

What do you guys think?

I honestly think there are statistics out there that can give you a full right advantage on drafting players, picking play calls, and signing free agents for football.

Maybe then, the Raiders can finally learn that they have a higher probability of winning (I have no evidence) if they run a no huddle offense the whole game against Denver like the Colts.

Anybody got statistics for football that is as strong as OBP for baseball? Thanx in Advance

Poll

Raiders should go after Paul DePodesta

Only on the condition that he finds some statistic that has low beer prices correlated with winning

10 votes

Yes

10 votes

No

3 votes

Maybe, but he has to promise no Randy Ratio

2 votes

25 votes | Poll has closed

Oakland A's Chris Berman-esque Nick Names

Instant Replay Umpire — Mon, 08 Aug 2005 15:14:42 -0000

For those of you who don't know, Chris Berman is a commentator who makes up quarky nick names for players like Mike "Pepperoni" Piazza, and Ben "What kind of burger is Roethlis?

I think this off day gives us a good opportunity to come up with some of our own.

Marco "Your fart stinks, can you Scutaro"

Jason "Can someone please get me a Barbie doll to go with my Kendall?"

We all know how Barry dances right? How about...
Barry "Sting like a Butterfly, Dance like a Mos-Zito"

Why don't the A's sellout ?

Instant Replay Umpire — Sat, 06 Aug 2005 13:32:10 -0000

I actually came across a GMAT question in a Kaplan book I'm borrowing which seems strikingly similar to the Oakland Athletics situation right now. It goes like this.

---Start of Analysis Essay Question---
Home Attendance at NY Mammoth games is significantly lower now than it was during their championship years in the mid-seventies. Many fans are fearful of the Dockside neighborhood around Mammoth Field. In view of the attendance decline, it is clear that the team should move.

Explain how logically persuasive you find this argument. In discussing your viewpoint, analyze the argument's line of reasoning and its use of evidence. Also explain what, if anything, would make the argument more valid and convincing or help you to better evaluate its conclusion.
---End of Essay Questions---

Kaplan considers this a perfect score 6/6.

---Start of Answer---
This argument is extremely unpersuasive for several reasons. Its main weakness is the huge gap between the evidence and conclusion. The conclusion is that the team should move. The evidence presented, however, simply does not warrant such an extreme course of action. Assuming that the character of the neighborhood of Dockside is indeed to blame for the Mammoths' poor attendance, there are at least two alternative courses of action the team could pursue. First, the team's ownership could encourage city officials to devote funds to improving Dockside. If such efforts successfully renovated the neighborhood, more fans might attend Mammoth games. Second, even if improving Dockside wouldn't be sufficient to increase attendance, the team could simply move to another, better neighborhood in the same city. There is no reason to think that this far less drastic action wouldn't have at least as strong an impact on attendance. In short, the argument is extremely weak because it neglects to consider alternative solutions to the problem of low attendance.

There is an additional flaw to be found in the argument's evidence. By asserting that today's attendance is "lower than during the championship years," the argument actually implies that Dockside is not the problem. The conclusion is based on the claim that the neighborhood is responsible for falling attendance. Yet perhaps fans aren't attending Mammoth games because the team just isn't playing as well as it once did. If that is the case, then moving the team elsewhere is unlikely to improve attendance rates, since the problem lies not with the games' location but with their quality. So the argument suffers from two major flaws: the cause of the decline in attendance is ill-supported, as is the recommended solution. Strengthening the argument would require showing, first of all, that the team's poor playing is not the real reason for poor attendance, and secondly, that the neither of the two alternative solutions discussed above would solve the problem.
---End of perfect score answer---

Additional valid arguments I think that were omitted.

Is the sport in a decline?
Is the stadium up to par?
Is their new or increased competition in the market?

So why don't the A's sellout?
Because the city of Oakland is on a decline?
Because the sport wasn't as popular now than the Haas years?
Because the stadium isn't that great?
Because the A's are competing against a brand new stadium a few miles by them?
Because we haven't won a World Series recently?

I guess the better question would be, what can the Athletics do to sell more tickets sustainably to the present and future?

Poll

What do you think will make the A's sellout?

All of the Above

7 votes

If they make sportswriters buy an A's ticket for everytime the A's prove them wrong

9 votes

Nothing can make the A's sellout

10 votes

New Stadium

34 votes

Billy Beane Bobblehead Doll giveaway

4 votes

Win a World Championship

11 votes

Free Beer for the first 10,000 people that qualify

10 votes

Bring back Ricky Henderson

3 votes

Other

3 votes

Play at Santa Clara University

2 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

Where do you like Watching the Athletics at ?

Instant Replay Umpire — Wed, 03 Aug 2005 22:35:25 -0000

I actually got four FREE plaza level tickets + free parking and I ended up not even going.

Why?

Because game time was 1pm Sunday, and I partied til 5am the previous night.

The tickets even included four free meals.

What other reasons besides that?

I think watching baseball on Television gives me more freedom than spending all that effort to go to a game. Lets face it, watching baseball at the stadium is not like watching football. In football you get to see the different strategies, autobles, linebackers, and safeties move.

In baseball, all I really ever notice is the 1st base coach tipping pitches to right handed batters, and 3rd base coach tipping it to left handed ones. The only real other thing I notice is the timing of the pitch from the start of the delivery to the release usually tips off the pitch. Nothing really too exiting for me. I know a lot might think otherwise, that's why I made a helpful poll.

If anyone wants to post what would get them to go to the games more like, more Bobblehead giveaways, cheerleaders, or tighter uniforms. Your welcome to chime in. I know my answer would definately be if the game was near my future employment, or home. I would go almost every time.

Poll

I would rather watch the game

Other

1 votes

Live in the Stadium

43 votes

Highlights from Sportcenter

0 votes

With the Radio in the Stadium

13 votes

Anywhere with tons of Alcohol

4 votes

With the Radio not in the Stadium

1 votes

Anywhere with Friends

1 votes

On TV

3 votes

On Lameday

1 votes

On Tivo

0 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

American League Rookie of the Year for 2005 ?

Instant Replay Umpire — Mon, 01 Aug 2005 08:11:34 -0000

Through July, these are the statistics and top candidates for the American League Rookie of the Year. (VORP taken from baseballprosectus)

Russ Adams - SS (Tor) 269 AB 6 HR .334 OBP .751 OPS 13.0 VORP
Robinson Cano - 2B (Yank) 299 AB 8 HR .318 OBP .783 OPS 20.9 VORP
Jonny Gomes - OF (TB) 151 AB 12 HR .377 OBP .967 OPS 13.2 VORP
Aaron Hill - 3B (Tor) 222 AB 2 HR .357 OBP .780 OPS 11.1 VORP
Damon Hollins - CF (TB) 231 AB 10 HR .328 OBP .796 OPS 16.5 VORP
Dan Johnson - 1B (Oak) 170 AB 6 HR .398 OBP .898 OPS 17.7 VORP
Dallas McPherson - 3B (Laa) 205 AB 8 HR .295 OBP .744 OPS 04.4 VORP
Mike Morse - SS (Sea) 156 AB 2 HR .386 OBP .809 OPS 16.2 VORP
Nick Swisher - OF (Oak) 295 AB 15 HR .320 OBP .795 OPS 08.9 VORP

Gustavo Chacin - SP (Tor) 21 GS 10W 5L 129 IP 3.45 ERA 26.5 VORP
Huston Street - CL (Oak) 42 G 4W 1L 51 IP 1.41 ERA 22.8 VORP

And the foreign Dark Horse...
Tadahito Iguchi - 2B (Chi) 326 AB 8 HR .352 OBP .788 OPS 17.3 VORP

And the guy who barely misses qualifications (130AB's, 45 days)
(Mauer has more than 45 days of being on a major league roster)
Joe Mauer - C (Min) 298 AB 8 HR .379 OBP .818 OPS 30.3 VORP

Before creating this diary, I though Nick Swisher was the favorite to win the AL Roy, but now I think he has a lot of work to do.

Please note I left out the rest of the pitchers like Joe Blanton because I believe they have no shot.

Poll

Who do you think will win?

Gustavo Chacin

31 votes

Huston Street

42 votes

Tadahito Iguchi

2 votes

Dan Johnson

15 votes

Tampa Bay Outfielder

10 votes

Robinson Cano

47 votes

Toronto Infielder

5 votes

Mike Morse

1 votes

Other

4 votes

Nick Swisher

46 votes

203 votes | Poll has closed

Need Help, is Payton an Upgrade from Byrnes?

Instant Replay Umpire — Fri, 15 Jul 2005 10:32:25 -0000

Trying to figure out why the A's made the trades. I think we upgraded Bradford with Witasick, and Flores/Glynn with Kennedy. Not saying I don't like the trades, just need help trying to understand them, in Beane we trust right?

But did we really upgrade Byrnes with Payton?

Defensively, Payton is better
Speed wise, Byrnes is better
Age wise, both past their primes
Salary wise, pretty much can't afford Byrnes after this season, and possibly Payton as well

But what caught me is I think we downgraded our team strength of hitting against left handers because Byrnes has an OPS of 1.000 while Payton has .775.

Our outfield OPS statistics and splits
Kotsay .850 Left .700 Right
Kielty .990 Left .680 Right
Swisher .530 Left .850 Right
Payton .780 Left .700 Right

Byrnes 1.000 Left .670 Right

So did we sacrifice a little in hitting against lefties, and speed to improve a little bit in defense, pitching, and possibly hitting against right handers? Does anyone else notice that we might be an outfielder short for hitting against right handers? Or do you think with a choice of Kielty or Payton against a right hander is sufficient?

If anyone has anything that they could add to help, I would be grateful.

Can Ricardo Rincon play 1B or LF ?

Instant Replay Umpire — Wed, 06 Jul 2005 14:00:31 -0000

I kind of got this idea from DMtShooter.

When Macha brings in Rincon to face a lefty, then the other manager calls on a right handed switch hitter. Why don't we have Rincon play LF or 1B, so we can have a different pitcher come in to face the right handed batter, then when a left handed batter comes up, Rincon can come back in the pitcher spot to face him.

We have a lot of similar guys who play 1B, and the OF. I think this would be more beneficial at times for us probability and mathematically than saving the reserves to pitch hit.

Apparently some manager did this strategy called the "Beard Strategy" in the playoffs.

Oh, for those of you thinking why we don't have Rincon as a pitcher than DH, I think there are some rules that make it impossible for a DH to switch to play a defensive position.

Any way to get this to Macha, Beane, and company?

Not a Rebuilding Year, but "Learning Year"

Instant Replay Umpire — Sun, 29 May 2005 10:08:34 -0000

Okay so this is the Situation. This season is all but over although Billy Beane & Co. won't say it, we know it, the more we lose the better chance we have of drafting that non-Boris starting pitcher|hitter.

Rich Harden, Danny Haren, and Joe Blanton will be returning next year with another year experience of starting pitching. We already know Haren and Blanton are good, just really not outstanding 'Big 3' material. Rich Harden is possibly the only one who could be like one of the Big 3.

As for Chavez, Crosby, Ellis, Ginter, Scutaro, Swisher, Kotsay, Kielty, Thomas, and Melhuse, they will also have another year under their belt of learning.

Dan Johnson will be here next year starting.

Durazo, Hatteberg, Kendall, Dotel, Byrnes, and possibly Zito will be shopped at the trading deadline, and at the seasons end. Of course everyone has a chance of being traded, these people have the highest probability.

Which leaves Calero, Cruz, Rincon, Bradford, Duke, and Street to gain yet another year experience, and for Dan Meyer to contend with Saarloos to prove that he can be a #5 starter, then possibly Meyer to become 'big 3' material, or just 'good.'

We really got cheated out of the Hudson and Mulder deal only because we got some 'damaged goods' in return which should be better next year.

We know we can score 800+ runs next season, which leaves us with... can our pitching only allow 700- runs under to keep us within contention [90+ wins?]

Probably not for next year, but 2007 will be our best year out of 2005, 2006, 2007.

So basically, this year has told us that we don't have the pitching to contend for next year, unless Meyer can become dominant.

Thoughts, comments? They are welcome.

Should we applaud, boo, or be silent when Jason Giambi comes back to Oakland?

Instant Replay Umpire — Tue, 17 May 2005 23:24:03 -0000

Okay, this guy Rook and I got into a heated conversation in which I deleted because of the explicit material.

I think we should keep booing Giambi, he thinks we shouldn't.

I think we should keep booing Giambi because
#1 He left us for more money to go to the Yankees
#2 He then bad mouthed Oakland on National television
#3 He used Steroids, and ruined the integretity of competition

He thinks we should applaud Giambi because
#1 What Giambi did for the A's while he was here
#2 We as fans should feel passionate about his situation because the Yankees want to send him to the minors, and find a way to pay out 84 million dollars
#3 He's a good guy

I will leave it to a vote of the fans.

Anyone is welcome to post your feelings, thoughts, or reasons for your vote.

Thank you

Oh one more thing, can you guys please recommend this diary so we can have a higher vote count.

Poll

How should we treat Jason Giambi next time he comes to Oakland playing against us on the Yankees?

Keep booing Jason Giambi

32 votes

Applaud him

7 votes

Stay silent

20 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed