So as I see it, despite how unbelievably painful the end of this season was (with the sort of nut not really enouh 4 game winning streak to end the season helping too little to dull the pain). We can start having off-season fun, Figuring out what we want our lineup and roration to look like next year

Obviously were set at 2nd base, Catch, Short (assuming nothing betters comes along short term), Right and Center.

 

I would suggest plopping Luke Down on 1st base, with Wiggy there to hit against lefties when the need arises. Pie will start in Left Field. Reimold DH. When a tough RHP goes, Nolan can take a day off and Luke can DH with Wiggy sliding over. hopefully Josh Bell is ready by April, Wiggy can play the position until then, If Brandon Snyder continues to hit, we bring him into the corner rotation half-way through the year and see what happens.

 

OR we could try to sign one of these bigger bats (Ill amit none of them are too big)...:Blalock, Branyan, Delgado, NiCk Johnson, Beltre, Glaus, Figgins to bolster our corner corps. siging one of these could push Scott into a trade, or into a platoon as DH with reimold, also getting some time in left.

 

With appropriate increased production from AJ, PIE, WIeters, a return to form form Markakis, and moderate lines from rookies (Bell and Snyder) as well as moderate production from whichever older corner man we bring in on a 1-2 yeard deal should provide us with an above average offense on rebuild year 2 - Back toward 500.

 

Hopefully by ready to play year - 2011 we can pick up somebody to play short - Reyes (club option), Julio Lugo, JJ Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Jimmy Rollins, and a big older corner guy to offset whatever we haven't gotten from Bell and Snyder: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena

 

With this offense, C. Wieters, 1b - Lee/Berkman/Pena, 2b- roberts, ss - JJ Hardy, 3b- Josh Bell, Lf- Pie/ Reimold, CF-Jones, RF- Markakis, DH- Adam Dunn/ Jason Kubel/ Jayson Werth

 

and whatever make it to the top out of Britton, Arrietta, matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Erbe bolstered by maybe a Beckett, Halladay, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb.

 

Thats the playoffs in just....lots....of...not entirely improbable moves

Is anyone in the Bay Area going to any of the games in the Oakland series? I think its probably pretty important for me to go to all three, because if I just go to a day game, and Matt has the day off, I'll almost certainly have to kill myself. Either way, tickets are super cheap to A's games, and some times hot dogs only cost a dollar. So yeah. there we go, is that 75 words?

Who do we really want to see in the rotation?

 

Obviously we have Guthrie and Uehera as 1-2

 

I'd love to see what Hill can do this year, but to rely on him for anything is foolish, in an ideal world he is our number 3 .

 

I'm pretty much sick to my stomach thinking about Hendrickson or Eaton pitching at all for us. To paraphrase Bill James, they are starting pitchers...and I guess if you shot me into space that would make me an astronaut. If we are going to punt on the rotation and let absolutely horseshit pitchers out there, we may as well just give Penn the ball and see what he can do, we know Eaton and Hendrickson stink. I suppose it makes sense to give Liz one last chance at starting, but I feel like he is going to end up in the pen, and it may make sense to try to get him used to that role sooner rather than later.

I think I would go with Guthrie, Koji, Hill (if possible), and then a mix of Penn, Pauley, Albers and Bergensen, maybe even David Hernandez, who can't possibly be worse than what we've got going on now, even he won't ever make it as a starter.

 

Not that this is an option, but I sort of think Matusz would be our 2nd best pitcher this year....which is really depressing.

So I was thinking today about next year, and what the O's should do when they finally rid themselves of Melvin's contract, and Aubrey Huff's. One of the reasons I wanted us to sign Tex so badly is that there really aren't many great solutions in the free agent market, and we aren't really in a position to trade prospects (duh). We will be more than set in the OF for the next 5 years, set behind the plate and at 2nd, and hopefully the pitching will all work out beautifully, but what to do at 1st, 3rd and short. Obviously this is premature, but Spring Training is boring.

 

1st base - there are really no good options here, or at least all-star quality options.

Rich Aurilia (38)
Russell Branyan (34)
Miguel Cairo (36)
Frank Catalanotto (36) - $5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Tony Clark (38)
Carlos Delgado (38)
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Ross Gload (34) - $2.6MM club option
Eric Hinske (32)
Nick Johnson (31)
Adam LaRoche (30)
Doug Mientkiewicz (36)
Kevin Millar (38)
Chad Tracy (30) - $7MM option with a $1MM buyout
Daryle Ward (35)
Dmitri Young (36)

I sort of think the best solution would be to pick up Hinske or Adam Laroche or Hanl Blalock on a short deal and put up a straight platoon with Ty Wigginton at 1st base. Laroche hits 

.277/.345/.503 lifetime against righties, Hinske hits .264/.347/.458, Blalock .292/.356/.502

 

In a straight platoon with Ty (.288/.364/.514 vs LHP) we could have a really inexpensive 1st base slot putting up something like....280/.350/.470 with 30 hr for only a few million.

 

3rd.

Rich Aurilia (38)
Adrian Beltre (31)
Geoff Blum (37)
Aaron Boone (37)
Craig Counsell (39)
Joe Crede (32)
Pedro Feliz (35) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Chone Figgins (32)
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Troy Glaus (33)
Chipper Jones (38)
Mike Lamb (34)
Melvin Mora (38) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Robb Quinlan (33)
Juan Uribe (31)

Not much here either, I sort of like Beltre, as he's one of those players who has really flown under the rader due to what is seen as a ridiculous contract, but has actually been quite reasonable. His offense will never compare to 2004, but he has a phenomenal glove, and should be able to put up a .270/.320/.460 for the next 2-3 years. In our lineup, he could slot in at 7th, ahead of Pie and Izturis.

 

Short

Orlando Cabrera (35)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Adam Everett (33)
Chris Gomez (39)
Alex Gonzalez (32) - $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Khalil Greene (30)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
John McDonald (35)
Marco Scutaro (34)
Miguel Tejada (36)
Omar Vizquel (43)
Jack Wilson (32) - $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout

This is pretty ugly, our best bet may to be to hold on to Cesar and wait for 2011 to upgrade. Here I would maybe explore a deal for JJ Hardy if possible, who is tremendously undervalued due to glove work that doesn't look so special, but is praised by pretty much every defensive metric.

 

Given the 36 mill coming off the books, I think we could spend 5 on a solution at 1st, 8 on Beltre (2 yrs 16 mil?) and still have tons left over to explore signing a big free agent starter: Lackey, harden, Bedard (lots of innings incentives, low base), Tim Hudson).

 

 

 

 

 

So Baseball Prospectus forecasts the Orioles to be scoring, and giving up the second most runs in all of baseball. To me, this is a very good sign. Obviously scoring a lot is good, beyond that none of the projections on offense seem particularly crazy. Markakis is expected to hit .286/.368/.466, B-Rob to hit .274/.355/.428, AJ .278/.331/.470 (with 22 HR), Wieters .311/.395/.534, and Pie to hit .274/.333/.435

 

All of these seem reasonable to me. This team is going to score some serious runs.

 

The pitching makes me feel good too, for maybe a sort of twisted Orioles-ish reason. It is projected to be so goddamn bad, that it actually can't really be worse, and could be way better. If these projections pan out, the team would have a  pythag. of 76-86. If even ONE of our pitchers exceeds expectations (i.e. not having an ERA of 5.72), this team should be better than that. It also gives me real hope for 2010 and beyond. The offense is only going to get better, all of are young bats are still 2-3 years away from their peaks, and the old, solid, boring bats (Huff, Luke, Wigg, Mora) are pretty easily replaceable.

 

But again, the pitching is going to be so bad, that even if Matustz and Tillman and Arrieta don't all pan out, or are just "ok" This offense will be able to provide a ton of runs. The O's look to give up 898 runs this year. 5.5 runs a game. If in 2010-2011, the team's pitching is just mediocre (not great), we could expect to give up...770 runs a game (4.75 ERA). THEN even if the offense doesn't improve We'd be looking at a team that scored almost 100 more than they give up. If the offense does improve modestly, as we should expect, this team could very well lead the majors in runs scored in 2010-11. If the pitching DOES work out, it is not hard at all to see a team that scores 900 and gives up 725. That's big time playoff material.

Sorry this is rambling, but it's got me all hot and bothered.

If we can't be with the one we love...

What are some other first base options out there. Certainly we could promote Reimold to full time LF, move Luuuke to DH and start Huff at 1st. But I feel it would be borderline criminal of the front office NOT to move Aubrey after his phenomenal 2008. I've heard rumblings about us trading for Hank Blalock - which makes sense given the ascension of Chris Davis, the Rangers don't really need him.

In fact, a platoon at 1st of Blalock and the recently non-tendered Ty Wigginton, could be a pretty solid placeholder until something better comes around (probably not until the free agent market of 2010-2011).

Last year they combined, in 644 at bats, for the following line:

184 H, 41 2B, 35 HR, 87 R, 96 RBI, 51 BB, 109 K, .286/.348/.519 and 6.3 WARP

Not bad for a first baseman that probably wouldn't cost us much that we'd miss, either by way of prospects or money.

Any thoughts?

 

 

O's trade Hernandez, put pressure on Wieters

Tuesday, December 9, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

Posted by Keith Law

I don't mean to put any pressure on the kid, but they might as well just rename Baltimore "Wietersville" and get it over with. In a trade with the Reds in which Baltimore received Ryan Freel and minor league infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring for Ramon Hernandez, the Orioles netted a useful, if slightly expensive, utility player in Freel. But the primary long-term purpose of the move was to clear a spot for Baseball America 2008 Minor League Player of the Year, switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters, who could probably start 2009 in the majors but will certainly be ready by midyear.

 

Freel had a three-year run as a good utility player who could get on base and fill holes in center or in the middle infield, but he has played less than a full season over the past two years because of injuries. Assuming the hamstring injury hasn't robbed him of his speed, he has value on the field and should attract trade interest in July.

 

Given the number of teams looking for catching help, it's a bit surprising that Baltimore couldn't get a package including at least one solid prospect. Turner is probably an extra guy in the majors, although with a little luck he could turn into an everyday second baseman. He is a well-below-average runner who makes a lot of contact but doesn't have power or hit many line drives. He can't be a utility player because he can't play short. Waring is an organizational outfielder with atrocious plate discipline; he struck out in more than one-third of his 2008 at-bats despite being old (23) for the Midwest League.

 

Freel was superfluous in Cincinnati, where the Reds already have more outfielders than they can use (once they acknowledge that Edwin Encarnacion can't play third), and they didn't give up any prospects they're likely to miss. They haven't gotten any offense from their catchers since 2006. Cincinnati catchers hit .234 BA/.330 OBP/.351 SLG in 2008 and .227/.286/.388 in 2007 -- a bar so low that Hernandez has cleared it in the past two years despite not hitting all that well himself. The problem with Hernandez is that his defense has gone in the tank the past two years, and he doesn't play with much energy at a position that demands it. It's possible that his contract year and diminished prospects will provide the kick in the shorts he needs, but that's a bit of a gamble for the Reds.

All this Orioles Magic talk makes me want to here that awful song that started every game in...98?

"Orioles baseball, feel the magic where you are, I feel like a kid again when i am at the yard..." where can I find that song?

Also "those early years were lots of fun, and though they lost more than they won, baseball had returned to baltimore..."

 

Are those linked anywhere online right now

3 more words

I don't know how real this rumors of a Sherril/Roberts trade are. But if that happens, this lineup is basically the most exciting thing I could ever imagine.

 

2B- Rickie Weeks

SS- J.J. Hardy

RF- Nick Markakis

1B- Mark Texiera (probably wont happen, but...)

DH- Luke Scott

C- Matt Wieters

CF- Adam Jones

LF- Nolan Reimold

3B- Mike Costanzo

 

SP- Chris Tillman

SP- Jake Arrieta

SP- Jeremy Guthrie

SP-Rhadames Liz

SP- Garret Olson/ Mastutz?