I look at this as the culture shock that seemed to fly over many in Cubdom: At Theo Esptein's talk to the assemblage in the old Hilton he said the following:

"Patience at the plate will be the new rule", [ followed by] "...It's not a player's at bat, it's the team's at bat".

WOW, knowing how the Cubs have been free swingers as if teeing up the first pitch or how Cubdom has always looked at the individual and their individual AB's instead of this being a team thing, this piece of news and approach in how they (Epstein/Hoyer and their team) will evaluate those whom they acquire (release, trade or pass over) and then play.

How will this go over with the existing veterans like Soriano, or even Soto, Byrd or even Castro. My guess this will take time but looking down the system I bet BJackson, Vitters, Castillo or even Rizzo should take note that a new approach. As for the front office's approach he went on to describe it this way, dismissing the:

"old school" vs "new school" [describing it as the] "thorough and inclusive school"

alluding to a combination of human scouting and sabermetric data to make more informed decisions.

(I want to thank my father-in-law for going to his second favorite Chicago winter event, they have Chicago Symphony tickets since 1960, and recording Theo's program and then sending it to me via digitized recording.)

Most of the rest of Epstein's stuff was a repeat from his numerous statements in the media but these two really stuck out. The shock will be as this is implemented.

The Carlos Zambrano trade was quite unique in that it was not a double salary dump like Milton Bradley/Carlos Silva or Todd Hundley/Eric Karros-Mark Grudzielanek trade in that 'Z' had one year remaining where in the above examples there were multiple years or multiple players of compensation equivalencies. I think with Alfonso Soriano the probability is greater for a 'my bad-for your bad' contract deal.

In developing a potential list of 'my bad/your bad' contracts Soriano's presumed value at best, is one predicated as a dimensional player (DH) a spot starter or occasional situation position player which limits the probably pool of potential teams to the American League. I also didn't factor in the marketplace teams (large payrolls) since if the Cubs are willing to pay out an 'equivalency' amount than this would be of a non-factor.

The list below reveals at least 7 teams and 9 of apparent possible players.

White Sox

• Alex Rios (OF) $38.5M (plus trade bonus and team option buyout for 2014) difference of $15.5M (including buyout of 2014's option) Cubs owe $5.165M per year.
  

comment: This could be a start and if the Cubs include Byrd ( $6.5 for 2012) and therefore removing $9M of the equivalency which would replace Rio's position where the Cubs could receive a minor league pitcher of respective value. Rios could fulfill a short term need in the OF with the hope that Jaramillo and Sveum could turn him around offensively.

• Adam Dunn (1B-OF) $44M through 2014 (Cubs owe $10 or $3.33M each year of Soriano's remaining contract)

comment: Far less desirable though Dunn could rebound offensively where the Cubs in turn trade him in 2013 or 2014. The question is where does he play? Is he a younger version of Soriano in the OF who bats left and tanked last year.

• Jake Peavy (RHP) $17M Cubs would owe $37M to the White Sox ($18M each in 2013 and 2014)
  

comment: Actually I could see the Cubs trade for Peavy and Rios (difference to the White Sox of +$1.5M) where the Cubs gain a potential though unlikely TOR pitcher.

Minnesota Twins

• Justin Morneau (1B) $28M (Cubs owe Twins $26M, of $4M for 2012 & 2013 and then $18M in 2014)

comment: Morneau is a big risk with concussion injuries and a back/shoulder injury but he could be a way to have time for Rizzo to develop and also make LaHair available for a trade.

Boston RedSox

• Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP) $10M (Cubs would owe BoSox $8M in 2012 and $36M for 2013 & 2014)

comment: would have to include cleaning up deal for Epstein

New York Yankees

• A.J. Burnett (RHP) $33M (Cubs would owe $21M, $1.5M in 2012 & 2013 and $18M in 2014)

comment: I think this is a low possibility except if the Cubs include a pitcher, if Garza than the Cubs would want at least on of the Yankee's top prospects but in turn the Yanks might want the Cubs to take Chamberlain in some combination, this too would be some form of blockbuster.

Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles

• Vernon Wells (OF) $63M Angels would owe the Cubs $9M

comment: forget it.

Seattle Mariners

• Chone Figgins (2B-3B) $17M (Cubs would owe Mariners $37M, $10M 2012, $9M 2013 & $18M in 2014)

comment: This is a real possibility and could benefit the Cubs for at least 2012.

Baltimore Orioles

• Brian Roberts (2B) $20M (Cubs would owe Orioles $34M, $8M in 2012 & 2013 and $18M in 2014

comment, already discussed this deal was a possibility but appears to have died on the vine.

As Capt. Obvious has now observed, and Dave Kaplan stated before the Chirstmas holiday that some skeptics here and other places deadpanned, the Cubs are truly in a complete rebuild. The Rizzo trade pretty much confirms that along with the follow up presser that Hoyer said:

“Any time you go with young players, it’s the right thing to do. It’s exciting to have young talent in an organization, but there’s no doubt that with young talent comes an adjustment period. [...] With young players, there does come growing pains. It’s definitely something we’re prepared to deal with, and frankly, it’s the only way to rebuild a great organization..."[emphasis added]

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Forget the actual names of the prospects and look closer at the value that a "rumored" Garza trade is garnishing and you see why Epstein was referred to Rickett's by his fellow colleagues. First I say colleagues in that even though they are franchise competitors, the product is MLB and for practically every other franchise a strong Cubs product makes for a good financial benefit in their own franchise. Now Epstein has created a competitive market for Garza coming after the splash of (and high risk) that the Japanese import, Darvish and the Oakland A's fire sale of Gonzalez, (where the Nat's gave up three of an organization's top ten prospects) and the Reds overpaying for Mat Latos (Cincinnati gave up 1B Alonso, catcher Grandel along with starting pitcher Volquez), all prefaced and the FA signings of CJ Wilson and Mark Buerhle . In all these cases a market value has been set, where TOR FA pitchers ( All Star, but not HOF ACE's) are getting between $14-16M or young, under control potential TOR pitchers are garnishing 1/3 of your top prospects.

So now we have a reported short list of interested teams who would like to fit in a TOR pitcher who has 2 years of organizational (arbitration) control before his FA status kicks in; Boston, Detroit, Florida, New York, Toronto. The value of Garza is now being enhanced by the relative market competition and should be the cornerstone in the organization moving forward in their overall plan.

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Cubs batters apparently were NOT so bad, maybe just mediocre,  in that their overall score was 16.5 (9th in the NL) sandwiched between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers (who had the top player in Matt Kemp). St Louis almost doubled the Cubs with a 30.0 team batting WAR, Cincinnati was 2nd scoring a 24.8, followed by Milwaukee with 24.3, (you had better mash the ball in the NLCD). For all its reputation Colorado was the worst with wilted 7.1, a few notches below Pittsburgh's 8.2. Note, the other division winners, Philadelphia and Arizona both scored 22.2 and 22.1 respectively, meaning all four playoff teams were in the top five. Atlanta scored a 13.3.

What does it mean? If there are eight position players (batters) it is established that the average regular position player (or combination of platoon players) average 2.0, than the Cubs starters collectively scored an average, though one could say their WAR is still below par if you include pitchers batting. Buried in the data is an interesting finding that the Cubs were -49 (8th) in number of runs produced by an average batter, thus they had more activity than production.This is confirmed when isolating their offensive WAR (removing defensive WAR numbers) where their WAR falls to 15.9 (now 8th). Cubs were not the worst in defense only 6th worst measuring a 0.6 WAR in that category---at least they weren't the Mets who were -8.4 or the Rockies -4.2!

Now on to pitching: Cubs ranked 15 out 16 teams with a 7.6 WAR, (Houston was worst with a -0.7) and Cincinnati was 14th with a 10.2---owing to why they are not playing this weekend where they had the second best offensive WAR. Translated the Cubs WAR of 7.6 is 51% off the average (Mets at 15.5). Inside the stats is that the Cubs pitchers are but 60 runs collectively better than replacement value (meaning minor league prospect or AAAA player). Now understand that 65 out of that 60 is represented by Garza (28), Marshall (19), Dempster (8), Marmol (6) and Wood (4). Well, except for some sentimental reasons and possibly a mentoring role or two you can dump most of the staff.

All told this is what a team that is 21 games below .500 who is now looking forward to hiring a new front office staff and hopefully an field management crew....And just think it was one of the most expensive rosters in the league.

For the last month of so I have periodically been delving deeply into sabermetrics, now fast becoming a convert as I see now the difference between sabermetrics and traditional or standard baseball statistics is akin to the difference between corporate annual reports and detailed SEC Q reports. Annual reports are essentially marketing publications little different than BA/OBP/SLG  or W/L and ERA rates while SEC Q reports are factual information that is relative to the actual fiscal happenings of a company as is wOBA, UZR, FIP and ultimately WAR. In short I conducted a comprehensive and detailed analysis of what became the TOP position players to determine who were the TOP 50 WAR players. But simply using career WAR totals did not tell me who was the best player in their respective primes and how they played in post prime years. Here is a link to that work, it is detailed and still a work in progress

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The question between now and February 2012 will be who to keep and who not to: If, if, if Ricketts does what he has said he would and hire a GM (and therefore develop a staff) where the new mathematical tools called Sabermetrics will have an influence this analysis might have an insight to what a GM and staff would be looking at..

First the pitchers: I have used WAR (wins against replacement), FIP (fielding independent pitching) and (true runs ERA) against their salary value (either above or below their contracted rate). The position players I concentrated on batting though if time allowed I would have also included fielding as well, in this area WAR (wins against replacement) wBA (weighted On Base Average) and wRC+ (weighted Runs Created+) also along with their salary value (either above or below their contracted rate).

Therefore you could be a better judge as to whom to keep and whom jettison via a salary dump trade, player exchange trade, player release, non arbitration offer or DFA or waiver. It is my view that any team that has hovered around 20 games below .500 that substantial changes must be made regardless of contracted obligations or restrictions.

Here you go.

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