SB Nation User Blog: Ivy Walls

2002 revisited, squared

Ivy Walls — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 00:29:22 -0000

2002 roster had Cub immortals like the ill-fated prodigy Todd Hundley, 6-finger Alfonsesca, (unfortunately he stayed) and Crime dog McGriff, in short they were not only unproductive and highly paid but also locker room poison assassins. Needless to say the team was more than disappointing, winning less than 70 games. That winter Hendry traded one very bad contract for two disappointing veteran contracts (Grudz who ended up re-claiming his career for another 5 years) and 1B Eric Karros. More than the statistical change that both veterans had in 2003, both players contributed mightily in the make up of the team and locker room.

Looking at the 2009 Cubs there were two players of significance that need to be subtracted from the locker room are two key contracts; the obvious--- Milton Bradley "the daily "As the World Turns" and "I wonder, wonder who wrote that he was a superstar" Alfonso Soriano, totally almost $30M annually. Now remove them with players like the Luca proposed Burrell or Trib proposed Rowand and despite the stat heads discontent from past performances this team will begin to be right.

Lamenting on 2009 as the snow falls in the high country

Ivy Walls — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:14:09 -0000

The season was a brutal effort to watch as this team, rarely played as one, even though its apparent talent and some individual performances were there, most were not really. I think I knew it when Reed Johnson stated the obvious projection in mid-July saying that now that they reached first place the players can begin playing as a team and not seeking individual results. That actually never materialized.

Now Aramus Ramirez has laid the mantle of responsibility on Hendry as he knows what is wrong and has the where-with-all to fix it. On the outside to me it is obvious, this team offensively and defensively was never balanced. The pitching was essentially there although the gamble on Gregg went sour in August, for the most part Cubs cut payroll and still added to their starting pitching staff. Wells is a good middle of the rotation keeper---an innings guy now 11-9 and could end up 12-9, isn't that what Marquis was for two years? Gorzalanny is another very good 5th starter and a lefty to boot. The problem is the Cubs truly don't have a real horse at the top of the rotation, 3 solid #2 level starters, no real stopper, although Zambrano seemingly has the potential or did have that potential.Does this mean allowing Harden go free agent, I think so.

Back to the position player squad. As Ramirez stated, Hendry knows it, so what is known. Up the middle we have a promising catcher who needs to work really hard over the off season and not smoke dope and come to ST like he did in 2008. Hill is a back up and a fair one. I think Al said it best last March that if Hill starts more than 32 games we are in trouble. Okay, we have a 2B/utility player starting at SS, marginal 2B/utility players starting at 2B and a RF'er starting at CF. Cubs need a real SS, and then if you want platoon 2B/utility players at 2B fine. Now if a Colvin-Johnson platoon in CF is the answer let us see.

The other big problem are the corner OF'ers, we have bipolar manic-depressive and/or schizophrenic in RF and a DH who can only hit fastballs in LF. Now my family has had its share of disorders and there is love, therapy and medicine for those in need but not a place in the batting order...say good-bye to the soap-opera drama although I doubt there will be any takers. Zoltan sees the biggest contract gulp and the best addition by subtraction.

As for LF, Cubs can't move to the AL and Soriano needs something more than his knee scoped. Do the Cubs do a Jason Giambi and basically have the most expensive part time player. All I know is that someone eyeballed his knee problem back in May, was that DML because I saw it too in July when I saw Soriano try to stop at 3B on a base hit where he had to take an extra base. He stepped so gingerly that I knew he was hurt.

The bench, well talk about unbalance, the Cubs have two first baseman who play the corner OF and possess some power, a utility IF'er who left his bat and glove in STL, and another utility IF'er who can't play SS. Cubs need much more speed, more real glove versatility and more leadership---sounds like DeRosa and Johnson

So let us see what Hendry does?

Cubs tied in loss column with ATL & FL for WC

Ivy Walls — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 16:05:34 -0000

Cubs tied in loss column with ATL & FL for WC

Yes they are all back 5-6 games but CO has lost three in a row and they are now showing signs of tension. The thing is the Cubs don't have to climb over ATL and FL, they just have to win the make up games on them. Yes Al, you are correct in busting Van Dyke's chops for his analysis about the playoff team wins in and trying to project that as a predictor in the playoffs. Cubs can win 94 games if they win out. My thoughts are that CO stil need to win 8 or 9 games or going 8-9 or 9-8 but if CO goes 5-12 down the stretch....finishing 87 wins the Cubs could catch them with a 14-6 finish.

Lilly activated; Berg to Iowa

Ivy Walls — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 22:35:31 -0000

Lilly activated; Berg to Iowa

Ted Lilly was activated from the disabled list Monday and will start the series opener vs. the Padres. Rookie Justin Berg optioned to Triple-A Iowa to make room on the roster. Berg was recalled last Thursday and made his ML debut that day, throwing two shutout innings of relief.

-- Carrie Muskat

Thoughts on the Central Division for the final third of the season.

Ivy Walls — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:49:26 -0000

Captain Obvious holds that: Cubs and Cards are tied where both are 9 games over .500 (Cubs have 35% of the season remaining while the Cards have 33% of the season left.) These are the contenders. Both teams are 1.5 games behind the wild card leader (Colorado the Cubs next opponent where they are 12 games over .500), where San Francisco sits in between the Cards and Cubs.

The pretenders are of course Houston and Milwaukee, both possessive of an attitude of being a spoiler but their teams are so structurally unsound from a pitching basis that they will make a lot of noise going forward but my guess is that they will fall further below the .500 line. Remember the perception that Reed Johnson expressed on his blog the day the Cubs popped their head into first place this month where now the players can focus on playing winning baseball and not worry about their personal production.

As for the recent perennial bottom feeders of the division Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are now 16 games below .500 and easy targets for teams to come in and sweep them in their home field. Dusty there is no magic dust for your flawed team, nor can AAA players compete over the long haul as in Pittsburgh.

Now going foward I think this division race will come down to the final weekend where both clubs will be neck and neck down the stretch. The reason I point to the Wild Card is that it is conceivable that the upcoming race for a playoff birth could simultaneosly involve a wild card entry for the loser.

Looking foward the series St. Louis of Sept 18-21 weekend will probably be the biggest ticket in the State much like what it was like here in 2003 with that Labor Holiday weekend series with the Cards. After that series the Cards go on the road for a long late season road trip to Houston the pretenders, Colorado (WC contender) and then the ever falling Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs will continue their 10-game roadtrip playing the pretending Brewers and then going cross country to the other West Div WC contender with Giants in a 4-game series. Fortunately the Cubs come home to the AAA Pirates and then finish with the D-Backs.

Interestingly after St, Louis, Colorado faces the Brewers and then travels to LA to play the Dodgers while the Giants finish with the D-Backs and then the lowly Padres. Sure Atlanta or Florida could sneak into the WC mix but the trending since July 1st is telling me that Cubs and Cards will continue to push ahead pushing each other and eventually coming level with the WC leader.

It will be interesting and possibly get the Cubs real edgy for the playoffs, if they can secure a spot.

Tyler Colvin finished off an 11-for-11 run!

Ivy Walls — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:12:01 -0000

Tyler Colvin finished off an 11-for-11 run!

The 23-year-old outfielder tied a Southern League record by going a perfect 11-for-11 -- a streak that came to an end with a pair of line-drive outs -- to lead the Tennessee Smokies to three straight wins, including Sunday's 11-1 victory over Carolina.

"It is pretty amazing," Colvin admitted. "You go up there and you hit balls hard and you hope they fall. To do it 11 times and they all found holes, that's pretty fun."

Comment: hmmm, with Bradley's performance along with Fox's emergence we could see Colvin competing for the RF spot as soon as next spring. He'll be turning 24 this September.

Patton re-aggravates his groin in re-hab plus Ryan K's 2 in Iowa

Ivy Walls — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 18:34:35 -0000

Patton re-aggravates his groin in re-hab plus Ryan K's 2 in Iowa

"David Patton, pitching for Double-A Tennessee, had to leave his outing Saturday after three innings when he aggravated a groin injury. Patton, on the DL since July 6, had given up one run on two hits and struck out four over three innings. He apparently re-injured himself warming up for the fourth inning, and was pulled. Tennessee won, 4-1, over Carolina.

Left-handed reliever B.J. Ryan, whom the Cubs signed to a Minor League deal, struck out two in one inning for Triple-A Iowa in a 14-0 win over New Orleans.

Well it appears that this groin will entrench Patton's status with the Cub organization until further notice. How long do you think it will be until Ryan joins the MLB club and gives Lou, not one, not two but three lefties out of the pen?

Thriving or dying with this year's bullpen

Ivy Walls — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 15:53:09 -0000

It appears the offense for the most part has been resurrected scoring 93 runs since the All Star Break leading the team to a 11-4 break out. The starting pitching despite injuries has been there all year where a rookie surprise in Wells has stabilized the stars of Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster and Harden. Adding a young veteran in Gorzelanny will hopefully keep the situation ordered until Lilly returns later this month, hopefully fully recovered. The issue is the bullpen isn't it?

Gregg has surpassed most of this community's expectations with a workmanlike performance closing games. Marmol has been shaky as last night exhibited, we thought he was there in that most part this portion of July where he seemed to have the lights-out stuff. Marshall has evolved into his role exceptionally well where only a few inherented baserunners have scored. Guzman has developed well and and as long as remains healthy he is solid middle reliever. But then there is the inconsistent and frustrating Heilman, good stuff that moves---often out of the strike zone--- often maddening!

Therefore in my mind the Cubs have three consistent performers and two roll of the dice. Now we add Grabow a lefty that is not really a LOOGY, much like Marshall but effective. So that is six veterans for now. That then leaves Stevens or Samardzija in the long reliever role for now. When Lilly returns just before the rosters increase in September one could at least see the plan to be Gorzelanny in that long reliever role.

The question than is will the Cubs thrive or die with this year's bullpen? It comes back to the maddening and frustrating members of this crew, Marmol and Heilman. If one or both actually find themselves to be consistent the Cubs should be able to close the final two months playing .600 or better ball.

Finally I pulled up the opening day roster and Cubs have removed Vizcaino (waived), Cotts (AAA) and Patton is nicely snuggled away on the DL, adding Marshall from the starters, now Grabow and either Samardzija or Stevens. We have seen Atkins, Waddel & Berg come up and have a cup of MLB coffee, traded Ascanio & Hart who spent some time up here, and then there is Chad Fox who came up and got hurt almost like how the Sun comes up every day over Lake Michigan. But as I look at the situation now this bullpen is in better shape than it was all year.

Only Stevens and Wells are really rookies, Stevens looks promising and Wells, well what thankful return from RULE V he has been. Gorzelanny appears to have at least one more, possibly two years left before free agency while Grabow appears to be in his final arbitration year. Long term the Cubs seem to have some bullpen stability as well and at least for now more than a pair of lefties.

"...when the Cubs moved into a first-place tie Wednesday afternoon, it meant that every one of the teams with the highest payroll in its division was in first place"-Gammons.

Ivy Walls — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 20:02:07 -0000

Peter Gammons in his blog today made that statement in discussing the Indians dismantling a team that once was on the brink of the WS just a year and a half ago, the startling statement jumped off the page for me. In fact here is the accounting where again let us not get the full facts get in front of a nice hyperbole.

New York Yankees $201.449M (+2.5) AL EAST 1st
New York Mets $135.773M (-9.5) NL EAST 4th
Chicago Cubs $135.050M (+0.5) NL Central 1st
Boston Red Sox $122.696M (-2.5) AL EAST 2nd ----1st in WC
Detroit Tigers $115.085M (+2.0) AL Central 1st
Los Angeles Angels $113.709M (+3.0) AL WEST 1st
Philadephia Phillies $113.004M (+6.0) NL EAST 1st
Houston Astros $102.004M (-4.0) NL Central T3rd
LosAngeles Dodgers $100.458M (+7.0) NL WEST 1st
Seattle Mariners $98. 904M (-8.0) AL WEST 3rd

13. St. Louis Cardinals $88.528M (-0.5) NL Central 2nd----3rd in WC

14. SF Giants $82.528M (-7.0) NL WEST 2nd ----1st WC

18. Colorado Rockies $75.201M (-8.5) NL WEST 3rd------WC

22. Texas Rangers $66.646M (-3.0) AL West 2nd----WC

But Gammons point is well taken outside the Mets in that the top seven teams in payroll have claims right now on the 6 playoff spots and the top nine have claims on the 7 of 8 playoff spots. This tells me much as it should you. Spend money and your chances increase greatly. Only the Mets, Astros, Mariners [and Atlanta, Chicago White Sox]. Yes the ChiSox and Braves are still in the division races but right now both are in 3rd place to teams that spent even less than them. My question is why didn't the Astros sell once the Cubs series ended.

Berg sent back to AAA

Ivy Walls — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 22:22:28 -0000

Berg sent back to AAA

The Cubs officially activated Ryan Dempster from the disabled list Tuesday and optioned right-handed pitcher Justin Berg to Triple-A Iowa. Berg, called up Saturday, did not get in a game with the big league team but came close Monday night. He was warming up in the bullpen. Dempster had been sidelined because of a broken right big toe, injured in early July.

-- Carrie Muskat