SB Nation User Blog: Ivy Walls

Our stars are not really stars

Ivy Walls — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 18:52:21 -0000

You win or lose championships from your stars (80%) of the contribution comes from 20% of your players and visa versa.

When you are swept three games consecutively then you have to evaluate and see what is missing.

In my book DLee and ARamirez are very good players, but not stars. DLee when he won with Florida was their #6 hitter, a very good compliment player but not the star.

The same for Zambrano, he always has been very good but not really the ace...Harden might have ace stuff and Dempster Ace record but neither are really ace's. They are all good, very good.

Same for Soriano....great compliment player.

So what to do?

Find a few stars, real stars.

What does the landscape offer you in short there are only two real stars in the FA market, CC Sabbathia and Rafael Furcal (in their positions) and if the Cubs really get a true owner who wants to win than I would go for both, CC is the kind of ACE on a team that would make Harden and Z very good #2 & #3 starters and offer the club the option to resign Dempster or go to the farm and bring up a starter.

Furcal solves the big hole in the lineup where the club needs a left handed bat at the top who has speed and real OBP run producing. Then that leaves Theriot/Fontenot to work out 2B.

Now what? DeRosa, Fukudome in the OF.....

There will be two players available in the off season that real stars....Matt Holiday and Ichiro Suzuki....Mariners need to restart from the beginning and Holiday is the ROX ticket to rebuild. They need pitching, which the Cubs could offer in boat loads, and a few good players. Holiday is leaving and he could play RF leaving CF open.If Ichiro than he plays CF and you find a RF'er.

My thoughts are that the Cubs could trade either Theriot or Fontenot,. DeRosa, Marquis, R Hill, Marshall, Wuertz, Ceda, Hauffpauir, Pie, to the market place and attempt to make one of these trades. Would you trade Ramirez for one of these stars? I would trade Ramirez and move DeRosa to 3rd in a second if it meant the Cubs got Holliday or Suzuki.

That is the vexing issue....Because Rami for all his good hits during the year has not had a playoff...kind of like ARod.

Whatever you do you must get real stars.

Changing of the guard no Atlanta or Yankees in post season

Ivy Walls — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:49:51 -0000

Since 1991 (outside of 1994 which is an asterisk because of the strike) the Braves and Yankees were in the playoffs, in fact from '95 to '05 both teams were in, but with the Yankees being supplanted by the Rays this year this era is over.

The Braves did it with a great 3-man rotation, good defense and a balanced offense where now only Smoltz and Chipper remain from that era. The Yankees did it with a solid offense led by Jeter, Rodriquez, Giambi, Williams and a good rotation that they brought in pitchers like Clemons or Johnson to team with Pettitt and Mussina before the best closer in the game.

This is the Cubs second year in a row in the playoffs, along with Philly, RedSox and Angels are back in.

The Cubs made the first big statement in stringing playoff berths by picking up Piniella's option through 2010. If you look at the Yankees and Braves they had one manager through that era---Cox and Torre (whom the Cubs face).They have stability in the field (like the Yanks) where only CF is in question next year. They have a stable bench with Fontenot, Cedeno and Blanco where they could make a change with Ward and a few OF's. They have some stability with their rotation where Dempster is a FA and Wood (and Howry) are free agents.

Here is hoping for an era....they have a chance since their payroll can still grow with FA signings of Dempster, Wood and possibly a big star like what Atlanta did with Maddux or the Yanks did with Giambi---because talent inserted into a talented club wins.

GO CUBS and beat the Dodgers THREE STRAIGHT!

Lineup uncertainities---games within the game

Ivy Walls — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:10:19 -0000

Dodgers:

CF Matt Kemp--290, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 35 SB or SS Rafael Furcal out since May with back problems
C Russell Martin--.280, 13, 69, 18 SB)
LF Manny Ramirez (acquired July 21 fro Bos) 332, 37, 121 overall
RF Andre Ethier--.305, 20, 77
1B James Loney--.289, 13, 90
3B Casey Blake (acquired at ASB from Clev) .274, 21, 81 overall
2B Blake DeWitt--.264, 9, 52, or CF Matt Kemp
SS Angel Berroa--.230, 1, 16 or 2B Blake DeWitt
Derek Lowe RH (14-11, 3.24 ERA -itched two good games this year against the Cubs)

Starters (GAME 2) Chad Billingsley RH( 16-10, 3.14, 201 strikeouts), (GAME 3) Hiroki Kuroda RH(9-10, 3.73), TBD (GAME 4)RH Greg Maddux (acquired from SD; 8-13, 4.22 overall) OR Clayton Kershaw LH (5-5, 4.26 in 22 games, 21 starts).

Bench players of note: Pierre OF, Garciaparra IF, Kent IF, Furcal or Berroa IF, Ellis C

Bullpen: Closer---Jonathan Broxton RH (3-5, 3.13, 14/16 saves), Takashi Saito RH (4-4, 2.49, 18/21 saves), Joe Beimel LH (5-1, 2.02), Cory Wade RH (2-1, 2.27), Chan Ho Park RH(4-4, 3.40),

CUBS

LF Alfonso Soriano--.280, 29, 79, 19 SB
SS Ryan Theriot--.307, 1, 38, 22 SB)
1B Derrek Lee--.291, 20, 90
3B Aramis Ramirez--.289, 27, 111
CF Jim Edmonds (acquired May 9 from SD) .235, 20, 55 overall
C Geovany Soto--.285, 23, 86),
2B or RF Mark DeRosa--.285, 21, 87,
RF Kosuke Fukudome--.257, 10, 58, 12 SB or Mike Fontenot 2B
Ryan Dempster RH (17-6, 2.96), (GAME 2) Carlos Zambrano RH (14-6, 3.91), (GAME 3) Rich Harden RH ( acquired from Oak---10-2, 2.07 in 25 starts overall), (GAME 4 IF NEC)LH Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09).

Bench Players of Note: Johnson OF, Fontenot If, Ward IF/OF, Cedeno IF, Blanco C, TBD

Bullpen: CLOSER Kerry Wood RH(5-4, 3.26, 34/40 saves), Carlos Marmol RH(2-4, 2.68, 114 strikeouts in 87 1-3 IP, 82 games), Bob Howry RH(7-5, 5.35), Neal Cotts LH(0-2, 4.29), Sean Marshall LH(3-5, 3.86 in 34 games, 7 starts), Jason Marquis RH(11-9, 4.53 in 29 games, 28 starts), Jeff Samardzija RH(1-0, 2.28).

Discussion: I am unsure of Furcal's back health, would that in of itself have an effect on his stealing game or defense. Is he rusty? Kent is coming back from a knee surgery in less than a month, what is his circumstance. The same for Nomar, he too was hurt. Will Pierre be used in CF or is he the most expensive late game base runner? Saito also is coming off an injury.

My thinking is Torre starts a lineup that got him there in Game 1 and see's what transpire's. Kemp playing CF, Berroa at SS, and DeWitt at 2B.

As for the Cubs I think they are looking a Fukudome to anchor that 8th spot in the lineup and make something happen. That means DeRosa plays 2B and Fontenot is the real bat off the bench to depend on.

Power Rankings:

Ivy Walls — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 02:44:52 -0000

Rogers has this homer call which is nice:

Cubs
Crimson Hose (Is that what the Indians wore at the Tea Party?)
"Just call me" Rays (named after the movie Mystic River)
The Artful Dodgers ( 4th really....hmmm well after the ASB)
Female Horses...
The Sausage Racers of the Great White North (Come on they bearly got in)
California's Pagan Worshipers (7th? with the best record? hardly)
The Decaplets (because it takes 10 to play in the AL)
Blanco Stockings (Because I like Henry)

Well Rogers hmmm the final power rankings...here are mine?

Okay:

Cubbies, because they are statistically dominant and they are my team.
Just call me Rays, because they won the division of the toughest division in MLB.....they are dangerous but probably a year away.
Angels.....see best record, it is power and they too are balanced.
Da Phils, they have almost everything but in short series they have the ingredients, closer, big power to carry them on the backs....experience.
Red Sox, defenders with much, they are eroding.....if they still had Manny they might have been #1.
Dodgers, well because they played well in the 2nd half and it will be interesting to see them get rid of Pierre, Jones and Kent and get better next year.
Brewers, they made their way in the limelight but will find it blinding their eyes in Philly land. But I bet there will be many runs scored.
Tied...Sox and Twins....oh they are...imagine that.

Now predicting the winners:

NL (Cubs in 4, Lilly finishes them off, Z remains questionable).......and Phils in 5 lots of runs, lots of pitchers and lots of tension.

AL, Angels prevail against RedSox 4 games; Twins beat Rays in 5 (this is a real guess),

AL Angels go 7 with the pesky Twins

NL Cubs beat up on the Phils questionable starters and win in 5....save the city from destruction.

WS; Cubs vs Angels, Cubs in 7 riding Harden and Lilly to the promised land.

Comparing Dodgers and Cubs or apples and oranges

Ivy Walls — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 17:27:26 -0000

Starting lineups by position:

Catcher (slight edge to Cubs with Soto's power #'s and run production)

Martin (.286)13-HR 69-RBI (.781 OPS) .365 CERA 23% CS Soto (.285) 23-HR 86-RBI (.886-OPS) ..380-CERA 26% CS

First Base (slight edte to Cubs with Lee's more power and fielding % plus experience)

Looney (.283) 13-HR 90-RBI (.772-OPS) .991 F% ZR .842 Lee (.291) 20-HR 90-RBI (.823-OPS) .993 F% .860 ZR

2nd Base (edge goes to DeRosa due to power #'s and versatility)

Kent (.280) 12-HR 59-RBI (.745-OPS) .976F% .809 ZR DeRosa (.285) 21-HR 87-RBI (.857-OPS) .976F% .814-ZR

Shortstop (if Furcal is healthy and ready edge goes to them otherwise it is push)

Furcal (just returned to the lineup after being out for most of season Theriot (.307) 1-HR 39 RBI (.745-OPS) .945 F% .816 ZR

Third Base (Edge to Ramirez power and run production)

Blake (.274) 21-HR 81-RBI .808-OPS .985F% .764-ZR Ramirez (.289) 27-HR 111-RBI .944 F% .748-ZR

Left Field (Edge to Ramirez)

Ramirez (.332) 37-HR 121-RBI 1.031 OPS .985 F% .806-ZR Soriano (.280) 29-HR 75-RBI .876-OPS .975 F% .821-ZR

Centerfield ( slightest edge to Edmonds based on OPS, ZR and experience)

Kemp (.290) 18-HR 76 RBI ,.799 OPS .981 F% ..849 ZR Edmonds (.235) 20-HR 56-RBI .822-OPS .975 F% .856-ZR

Rightfield (Edge to Ethier more power and batting)

Ethier (.305) 20-HR 77-RBI .885-OPS 1.000 F% .884-ZR Fukudome (.257 10-HR 56-RBI .738-OPS .980 F% .894-ZR

Starting Pitching

Starters (Cubs in each game except possibly Z depending on his command)

Lowe (14-11) 3.24 ERA 1.13 WHIP Dempster (17-6) 2.96 1.21 WHIP

Billingly (16-10) 3.14 ERA 1.34 WHIP Zambrano (14-6) 3.91 !.29 WHIP

Kuroda (9-10) 3.73 ERA 1.22 WHIP Harden (10-2) 2.07 ERA 1.06 WHIP

Maddux (8-13) 4.13 ERA 1.21 WHIP Lilly (17-9) 4.09 ERA 1.23 WHIP

Relievers (Cubs)

Closer Broxtone (3.13) 14 SV 13 HLD Wood (3.26) ERA 34 SV

Setup Saito 92.49) 18 SV Marmol (2.68) ERA 7 SV 30 HLD

LOOGY Beimel (2.02 ERA) 12 HLD COTTS (4.29) 9 HLD

Staff: Proctor, Wade, McDonald, Toronsco, Kershaw

Howry, Samardzija, Marshall, Marquis

BENCH (Cubs)

LA: Ellis(C), Sweeney(1B), DeWitt(2B) Berroa(SS) Garciaparra(3B), Pierre(OF) Young (OF)

Cubs Blanco (C), Ward(1B), Fontenot(2B), Cedeno(SS), Johnson(OF), Pie (OF)

Samardzija on, Gaudin off---Tribune

Ivy Walls — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 05:09:39 -0000

By Paul Sullivan |Tribune reporter
11:56 PM CDT, September 27, 2008
MILWAUKEE - Jeff Samardzija will make the Cubs' postseason roster Saturday, while veteran Chad Gaudin likely will be left off.

Samardzija's status was shaky because of some recent outings. After throwing 14 1/3 scoreless innings in August, he has a 5.40 earned-run average in September with eight walks and 11 hits allowed over 8 1/3 innings.

Manager Lou Piniella wanted to see Samardzija get ahead in the count and throw his split-fingered fastball more often, and it seems to have gotten him back in a groove.

"I don't think I was ever really out of [a groove]," Samardzija said. "It was just a matter of taking a little different approach. Mentally I was having some success [earlier], so maybe I was trying to take it too far instead of just going up and attacking the zone."

So does that mean Howry on....with Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Marquis, and Marshall?

GLEE just outright disgusting Glee

Ivy Walls — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 04:37:41 -0000

I am happy, having walked home from a neighborhood party where I got to smile as if I ate the canary with sad Rockies Fans, Braves Fans, Cardinals Fans and most of all YANKEE FANS....it is a neighborhood party that is called BOOKENDS of the baseball season where we have a Opening Day party and a closing weekend party called FAN APPRECIATION PeakEquinox.

The thing is the Cubs are on top this year despite Dave and his wife who are of the Red Sox Nation who maintains that until they lose they are on top--yeah in 2007. That said the Cubs are on top this year, where Ward smacks a HR in game 160 and then Fukudome hits a icing on the cake to put the game out of reach when BIG MO was rising in Brewerland.

Tomorrow the concensus of the neighborhood that is contrarian in Colorado where we like baseball more than Football was that it would be good for baseball if the Cubs beat Milwaukee and the Marlins did the same for the Mets so we had something to talki about on Monday.

The Brewers are talented but still don't know how to play winning baseball and either does Cedeno, but he is the 23rd or 24th player on the team, gosh I kind of wish we had Counsel but we have ONEDEC. My Rox neighbor said that either way the Brewers or Mets are backing in and it is not like the momentum that the ROX had last year so the best teams all year should prevail.

The thing is we all agreed is that the Cubs are fun to watch. They play the game almost every situation like winners, like Fontenot getting that two run base hit early in the game stroking the baseball on a line to RF. Jim said I didn't realize that Fontenot is batting .301 or has 9 HR's and is a substitute.....what gives? Or Fukudome smashing his 10th HR in the back end of the game. The best came when Bill, the Yankee fan said he would love to have Marquis on the Yankees...and I said he is not that well liked....how come he said he is solid.

GLEE....and now I just want to say beat the Brewers tomorrow and win another series....our 5th in a row and finish 13-11....just glee

Cubs' last Magic number 2 (Phils eliminating Houston)

Ivy Walls — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:07:01 -0000

The Phillies are down to a magic number to eliminate Houston is down to 2 (a win and loss or two wins or two losses by the Stros) and canceling Monday's make up game.

Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 3 to clinch a WC spot eliminating the Brewers overtaking them if they suddenly fall into the tank.

The Mets magic number is of course 5 where they hold the slimest margin of possessing their destiny in their own hands. (4 + 1 if you say they could win a WC playoff game which they win and I hope happens). For the Mets I say another loss to the Cubs would put them on the brink of disaster since they would be face-to-face with last year's collapse. Not good facing Zambrano (who needs a good start) and Harden who has been lights out.

Come on Phils turn out the light on the Stros.

Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the NL playoff contenders

Ivy Walls — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:12:58 -0000

Okay there is one team in the playoffs and the Phils are down to a magic number of 3 for a playoff birth (Wild Card) with 5 games remaining----we know how fast 3 can disapear...LA is down to 2 for a WC birth while AZ is eliminated. Milwaukee still has double edge on its WC path in that if the Mets do a sudden ONEDEC they have the Phils are 2 games in front of them. That said unless the someone is masquerading as a Colorado Rockies and runs the table, the Astros, Marlins and Cardinals are out.

So here it is Phillies are probably in again either division winner or WC...they just need to win 3/5 against two sub 500 teams (ATL & WASH).

LA Dodgers, magic number is 5 with 6 left against 2 division rivals both below 500 need to go 5-1, where AZ playing StL and then CO needs to run the table---high odds.

NY Mets: essentially is playing for the WC birth where they are down 2 games (loss) with 6 games remaining has both the Cubs and Marlins.....need to go 4-2 but could or might go 3-3.

Brewers: Seeking WC birth now down one game playing at home where they are good, playing PITT and Cubs...they need to go 5-1 for a chance.....they might tie with 4-2

Okay so let us look at Philadephia, LA, NY and Milw.....and the Cubs

Cubs: If there is one word about that describes the Cubs is balance. Their offense is predicated by the ability to score runs 1 thru 8 and often 1 thru 9. They possess power, not in bunches but around the horn, where often you have a 7th or 8th place hitter with 80 RBI's. Balance in pitching where all starters have more than 10 wins, no real weakness to tax a very good bullpen, with a solid closer but even better set up relievers than anyone in the league. They are also flexible or versatile starting using DeRosa to pivot lineups and defense situationally. They have some speed at the top of the order in Soriano and Theriot and can manufacture runs. Their bench has power and has two almost three regular platoon semi-starters (Johnson, Fontenot, Blanco) and another contributor in Cedeno and a historic pinch hitter. Up and down the only weakness is a real LOOGY but Lilly might take on that role in a short series.

Absolute favorite whomever they play.

Phillies: They unbalanced but dangerous because of their offense which is loaded with power in the BIG THREE powered by Howard. Their weakness is that other points in the lineup are not balanced in OBP so they rely on HR's for much of their offense. Some speed with their CF'er. Their starting pitching is weak and needs to be supported by their offense. Their bullpen is marginal until Lidge who is the league's best. Their formula is to score more runs to the 9th inning where Lidge comes in. They have not improved from last year.

Dodgers: They remind me of the Cubs last year, learning how to win with a master manager and semblance of young players learning the game and a superstar who was added and above average starting pitching but suspect bullpen. They play low scoring games which Ramirez has put them over the top. Their accomplishment is getting to the playoffs but watch out for them next year as they find a way to rid themselves of some serious dead wood.

Mets: I seriously doubt this marque offensive team will make it and feel they will probably lose a one-game playoff game on Monday with the Brewers....just a hunch. They have power with Wright and Delgado and sometimes Beltran but it appears they just don't play as a team. Losing Wagner was a serious wound. Their bullpen is a killer, deep psychological wounds. If they make the playoffs they will be a handicapped team.

Brewers: I fear that if they make the playoffs they will make some noise and good that the Phils line up with them. They don't know how to playing winning baseball but they are talented offensively and can play run for run with the Phils until the 9th inning.

Here is what is shaping up: Phils versus LA or Brewers; Cubs versus New York or LA. My thoughts are that I would rather play NY for I see the Cubs sweeping while LA forces a serious time zone problem that I would like either Phila or LA deal with and then play the Cubs. The thing is if the Brewers get in, I think they have a 50/50 chance beating the Phillies in five....

Finally the only weakness the Cubs have is RF again, but let us see if Fukudome finds his remedy this week and resurrects his starting role. With him on the field the Cubs defense is so much better, the Cubs bench is so much better and they are a WS caliber team 1-9.

Now what...a no-no and this 2-out rally

Ivy Walls — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 02:03:50 -0000

Well it is time to begin the speculation of the playoff roster. The decision hinges on a couple of thoughts.

A) Who are the four designated starters

B) How many pitchers is Piniella & Co. keeping

Here are my thoughts: I think Piniella is going to consider going with Zambrano, Dempster (at home games) and Harden and Marquis as the if necessary game 4 with the first game starter. Since the NLDS starts on 10/01(game 1) and 10/02 game 2. Friday off then Saturday & Sunday (if necessary) and then travel Monday to finish on Tuesday (if necessary) Game 5, where actually Cubs could chose starter 1 or 2 on four or five days rest.

That would leave the bullpen: Wood-CL, Marmol, Samardzjia, Cotts, Marshall (long reliever) and Lilly as the late inning LOOGY. This might sound radical but the Cubs actually do not have a late inning lefty and Lilly is their best left handed arm who could be used in 3 or 4 games in this series.

That leaves either 15 or 14 position players:

Okay the elimination game: Soto (MVP), DLee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Soriano, Edmonds, Fukudome, Fontenot, Cedeno, Johnson, Blanco, Ward.....13 players

14th player.....Felix Pie for that late inning pinch runner/OF substitution

15th decision: Howry?, Guzman? as pitcher options OR Koyie Hill or Hoffpauir

My thoughts: Pie is on the team because he offers that situational opportunity to put speed on the bases to score the tying or winning run and then using double switches defensively----we know the routine.This one is easy.

Now 11 pitchers or 15 position players: With Lilly as a possible LOOGY it allows Marshall to be used as an emergency long reliever if one of the starters gets bombed early in games one/two or three/four in the NLDS....Lilly could be used as the situational lefty....so could 6 relievers in the pen be enough---reality these four, Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Samardzija with two days off if the series goes five. Unless there is an early blow out Marshall would be there for extra innings if need be.

So can the Cubs go to the playoffs with 10 pitchers? YES....So K. Hill (switch hitter, good backstop) over Hoffpauir no doubt. This would allow Piniella to use Blanco as a right handed pinch hitter off the bench where Henry has produced this year and still have a catcher for emergencies.

Poll