See http://www.coachlikeapro.com/coaches-are-leaders.html

There are some important lessons in the article. Here are a few examples.

How do you persuade young people on a basketball team to practice and play consistently with a high energy level? How do you get individual players to pull-together and play as one on the basketball court? How do you get players with different desires and interests to "buy into" the goals of the team? Quite simply - you lead them.

It is very important for you to create an environment where there is a sense of security for your players to grow and develop as highly skilled basketball players. When the environment is safe, players play with more confidence, more energy, and with more passion. Coaches who yell, scream, threaten, and punish players for making an honest mistake (missed shot, bad pass, poor decision on the court, etc.) stifle the growth and development of their players. "I can't stand a ballplayer who plays in fear. Any fellow who has a good shot has got to take it and keep taking it. So he misses - so what?" -- Coach Red Auerbach

The difference between a good basketball coach and a great one is not basketball knowledge. It comes down to passion - passion for the game of basketball and passion for coaching. Signs of passion are love, enthusiasm, excitement, energy, going the "extra mile," etc... Get excited about the opportunity to coach and lead young people. Coaching basketball is a noble and honorable task. "The key to coaching is not what you do, but the way you do it. The intangibles, the motivational parts of the game are the most important facets of it." -- Coach Rick Pitino

Good coaches know that every player can be motivated, but every player is motivated differently. The key is learning how to best motivate each player on your team. "You have to learn what makes this or that Sammy run. For one it's a pat on the back, for another it's eating him out, for still another it's a fatherly talk, or something else. You're a fool if you think as I did as a young coach, that you can treat them all alike." -- Coach Paul Bear Bryant

In conclusion, the goal of a great basketball coach is to influence his players and his team in a positive way. To accomplish this goal, basketball coaches must continually grow and develop as leaders.

From my perspective, we have our fair share of young players, but we don't have a young player's coach. EG's position on this issue is that Flip's record speaks for itself. But that misses the point.

And now for a statistic that everybody loves to hate, the PER. After two games, here are the PERs for the starters:

McGee - 22.1

Wall - 15.7

Lewis - 12.2

Crawford - 4.4

Blatche - 2.1

Here are the PERs for some of the bench players

Young - 32.1 (highest among SGs in the league)

Singleton - 11.6

Booker - 1.2

The good news is that Young and Singleton could be moved to the starting line-up. The bad news is that the starters would then have to play 48 minutes a game for the Wizards to be competitive.

Actually Booker should play better, and Vesely might bring something. But the Wizard should put all of their forwards on the block to get one really good 3 or 4 (even if it ends up being another high draft choice).

For a team to succeed in the NBA, it requires a collection of individual talent and a synergy among the players.

For simplicity, let’s use 82game’s Simple Rating to see where the Wiz stand and what can be expected in the coming season. As background, a good player (but not quite an all-star) would have a Simple Rating of about 5 (e.g., Lamar Odom, Luol Deng). If the five starters on a team have a cumulative Simple Rating of 15 or so, they should make the playoffs (e.g., Atlanta). The Wiz starters had a cumulative rating of around 2 last year.

Here’s how the individual players have fared with respect to the Simple Rating and my projections for this year:

McGee: -4.2 (2009-10), +2.7 (2010-11), this coming year = +4.0

Blatche: -0.3 (2008-9), +1.3(2009-10), +1.4(2010-11), this coming year = +1.5

Young: -2.2 (2008-9), +0.1(2009-10), 1.9 (2010-11), this coming year = +2.5

Wall: -2.8 (2010-11), this coming year = +3.8 (note: Derrick Rose went from -1.8 to 4.8)

Lewis: 7.3 (2008-9), -0.8(2009-10), 0.8(2010-11), this coming year = +1.0

Hence, it looks like the Wizard’s starters would have a combined simple rating of about 13 which should be good enough to make the playoffs. That five man unit had a +/- rating in terms of scoring of a positive 29 last year.

In terms of the bench, this factor appears to be a real weakness for the Wiz:

Crawford: -3.5(2010-11), this coming year= -1.0

Booker: -1.5(2010-11), this coming year = 0

Seraphin: -11.8 (2010-11), this coming year = -7.0

Veseley: this coming year = -7.0

Net, net: this team still will continue to struggle with rebounding and shooting percentage, but they could squeak into the playoffs.

The biggest risk to improvement is an injury to one of the starters. The second biggest risk is friction between Flip and our 3 young, talented knuckleheads.

On the flip side, I don’t see much upside beyond the above projections. I believe that the Wiz will have to trade for a high draft selection and also get a marque free agent in the 2012 bonanza to become a quality contender.

We know big men take a longer time to develop than other players.  See http://www.82games.com/wong1.htm The question posed here is what to expect from Javale McGee.

One way to estimate a player’s future performance is to compare that player’s performance to another comparable player who came along earlier.

In this analysis, I compare McGee to Joakim Noah at the center slot.

Height:  Noah – 6’11”; McGee – 7’+

Weight: Noah – 232; McGee – 250

Age: Noah – 26; McGee – 23

After each player had played approximately 3500 minutes in the NBA, their stats were:

Minutes per game:  Noah – 23; McGee – 19

Points per game: Noah – 6.7; McGee – 7.2

Rebounds per game: Noah – 6.7; McGee – 5.1

Fouls per game: Noah - 2.7; McGee – 2.3

Blocks per game: Noah – 1.2; McGee – 1.6

PER: Noah - 16.2; McGee – 16.8

Overall, it appears that McGee’s performance is comparable to Noah’s over the first 3500 minutes of each player’s career in the NBA.

Today, Noah’s performance is much better than his first 3500 minutes in the NBA, and he is considered a Top 10 Center.  For example, he’s averaging 13.5 points and 12 rebounds per game, and is playing 36 minutes a game.  His PER is 19.5. Chicago is winning a high percentage of games with him in the hole.

By determining Noah’s improved performance from his first 3500 minutes to this year’s performance and then applying the same improvement to McGee, McGee would have the following stats in playing a comparable 36 minutes per game in the 2013 season:

Points per game:  17.6

Rebounds per game: 12.4

PER: 20.2 (which would be sixth best in the league for centers looking at today’s ranking).

Hence, this analysis suggests that McGee will be borderline all-star by the time he is 26, and certainly will be an all-star by the time he is 30.

Certainly, one thing we can’t argue about is that he has improved.  For example, his opposing center PER improved from last year’s 24.8 to 16.9 by January 19 according to 82games.com.

So where does this leave the Wiz?

Poll

Should McGee be part of the Wizard's plans?

7%

No, he won't improve any more.

19 votes

4%

No, we need a good center now.

11 votes

7%

No, it's not worth the risk/reward.

19 votes

62%

Yes, we're not going anywhere in the short term anyway.

150 votes

16%

Yes, he'll be better than projected above.

40 votes

239 votes | Poll has closed

Does any team see value in Blatche, assuming that good coaching can get him back on the right track?

If so, how about Blatche, Armstrong and Martin to the Warriors for Gadzuric and a draft pick.? Gadzuric offers the Warriors nothing and costs $9M (although his contract is expiring).

Here are his stats:

Season	Team	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3p%	FT%	OFF	DEF	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TO	PF	PPG
10-11	GSW	28	4	10.6	0.420	0.000	0.357	1.9	1.2	3.1	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.8	2.2	2.8
Career		511	159	14.9	0.502	0.000	0.501	1.7	2.7	4.4	0.4	0.5	0.8	0.7	2.4	4.7

So essentially the Warriors get Blatche and Martin for a draft pick

 

Ted Leonsis announced that the Wiz would be rebuilding this year and established a plan for rebuilding. 

This note addresses how the team is doing on the major facets of the plan.

3. Once you decide to rebuild–bring the house down to the foundation–be consistent with your plan–and with your asks–we always sought to get “a pick and a prospect” in all of our trades. We believed that volume would yield better results than precision. We decided to trade multiple stars at their prime or peak to get a large volume of young players. Young players will get better as they age, so you have built in upside. Youngsters push vets to play better to keep their jobs, and they stay healthier, and they are more fun–less jaded by pro sports.

Grade: B+

Rationale: dumped Arenas against all odds; good blend of veterans and young players; decent core of young players with Wall, McGee, Young and possibly Booker.

4. Commit to building around the draft. …Draft players that fit the system, not the best player.

Grade:  B.

Rationale: The Wiz win-loss record ensures a lot of lottery balls. However, it doesn’t ensure a top 5 pick, which the Wizards need to get a superstar forward to round out their team.

5. Be patient with young players– throw them in the pool to see if they can swim. Believe in them. Show them loyalty. Re-sign the best young players to long term high priced deals. Show the players you are very loyal to them as compared to free agents who achieved highly for another team. Teach them. Celebrate their successes. Use failures as a way to teach and improve. Coaches must be tough but kind to build confidence.

Grade: C

Rationale:  Patience with McGee = none

                   Believe in them (e.g., Booker, Seraphin) = not much

                   Provides minutes to Wall, Blatche, Young = good

6. Make sure the GM, coach, owner and business folks are on the EXACT same page as to deliverables, metrics of success, ultimate goal, process and measured outcomes.

Grade:  F

Rationale: No known metrics.

7. Implement a no jerk policy. Draft and develop and keep high character people. Team chemistry is vital to success. Make sure the best and highest paid players are coachable, show respect to the system, want to be in the city, love to welcome new, young players to the team, have respect for the fan base, show joy in their occupation, get the system, believe in the coaches, have fun in practice, and want to be gym rats. Dump quickly distractions. Life is too short to drink bad wine.

Grade C:

Rationale:  Several of the players party on a regular basis.  Some get caught fighting. What’s next?

8. Add veterans to the team via shorter term deals as free agents. … They fill in around our young core. They are very important for leadership, but they must complement the young core (NOT try to overtake them or be paid more than them). Identify and protect the core. Add veterans to complement them, not visa versa.

Grade: A

Rationale:  Hinrich, Howard and Lewis.

9. Measure and improve. Have shared metrics–know what the progress is–and where it ranks on the timeline.

Grade F:

Rationale:  There are six young players:  Wall, McGee, Young, Blatche, Booker and Seraphin.

Blatche has been out of shape all year.

The weekly PERs for Wall, McGee and Young have been dropping for several weeks.

Booker and Seraphin have been given limited burn.

Overall Grade: C

Rationale: simple average of the seven grades.  However, the most disturbing aspect of the results thus far is that Wall, McGee and Young started strong – and are all waning.

Conclusion:  If the Wiz end the year at a C, then next year will also have to be rebuilding year.

Poll

How do you grade the rebuilding so far?

1%

A

1 votes

15%

B

11 votes

34%

C

24 votes

26%

D

18 votes

4%

F

3 votes

17%

I'm concerned about Walll's, McGee;s and Young's progress

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

The team is 7-22 and seems to look for ways to lose.  Off the court, it's been a fiasco for years.  The draft picks seem to go unnurtured, or are just plain bad.  The medical advice seems perverse.  The physical preparation of the players seem lacking.  Intense training for individual improvement is non-existent.  Overall chemistry and team play is lacking.

In the broader scheme of things, Washington DC is a top 10 market with decent sponsors.  The lottery balls have rolled the Wiz way better than average.  The issue seems to be people-oriented, not external.

Poll

Who's responsible for the on-going performance of the Wiz?

11%

The owners (past and present)

8 votes

41%

The President/General Manager

28 votes

7%

The coaching staff

5 votes

1%

The team leader(s)

1 votes

7%

Individual players

5 votes

29%

The whole organization (they are hopeless)

20 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

 see http://www.82games.com/1011/1011WAS.HTM

No surprises to me. Flip would probably disagree with them. For example, McGee's stats are much better than Armstrong's. Similarly, Hinrich is no superman.

The one stat of most interest to me is the opposing center's PER when McGee is in the game.  It's down to 18 so far this year, which is a big improvement over last year. 

As expected, there are a few five-man units that given up a lot of points in a few minutes.

The Wiz are last in the league in rebounding.  So the logical place to point is McGee and Blatche. However, McGee and Blatche are averaging 9.8 and 8.0 rebounds per 36 minutes. Armstrong and Yi are averaging 7.9 and 4.3 rebounds per 36 minutes.

The other factor to consider is the number of rebounds to be had.  The Wiz are also last in the league in opposing team FG%. Rebounding isn't the only issue.

Poll

An opposing guard/forward beat his man and drives to the hole. What should McGee do?

30%

Try to block the shot

12 votes

48%

Try to stop the defender from penetrating (e.g., take a charge).

19 votes

20%

Stick with his man and try to block him out in case there is a rebound

8 votes

39 votes | Poll has closed

 

The conventional wisdom on this board is that Armstrong is destroying McGee in terms of +/- stats, although no sources are provided.

As far as I can tell, Armstrong is 50% worse than McGee regarding +/- on a per-minute basis (-.317 versus -.215).

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22010&split=9&team=Wizards

The worse player – by far – of those playing more than a total of 15 minutes in the first five games is Arenas at -.660 per minute.  The Thornton has the best ratio.

The starting unit of McGee, Blatche, Thornton, Hinrich and Wall has a positive +/-.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=5&season=22010&split=9&team=Wizards

The numbers seem to suggest that the Wiz collapse at certain times when some substitutions are made. For example, in looking at 2 player combos, when Yi and Arenas, Young, Hinrich, Martin or Booker are on the floor, the absolute +/- plummets.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=2&season=22010&split=9&team=Wizards&pager.offset=25

Based on Flip’s substitution patterns, we can deduce that he’s not a stats guy.  And maybe Ernie needs to focus on filling a few key bench holes?

Blatche didn't bring his game, even when not double-teamed.

McGee offerred no inside help-defense.

Thorton was outmatched.

Hinrich tried hard, but didn't offer much.

The bench, excluding Martin, didn't play well.

Flip didn't recognize the need to have shooters on the floor.

Grunfeld doesn't have many shooters on the roster.

To fill up the necessary 75 words to post, I say start Martin and Young in Atlanta (although I'm not a fan of Young's overall game).

Poll

Who gets the lowest rating for Game 1?

43%

Blatche

39 votes

36%

McGee

33 votes

3%

Thornton

3 votes

2%

Hinrich

2 votes

4%

The bench

4 votes

4%

Flip

4 votes

5%

Grunfeld

5 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

Michael Jordan hit 17% of his 3 point attempts in his first year.  It didn't improve much in his first four years.  Nevertheless, his FG percentage remained near 50% through out his career. His 3 point average ended up around 33%.

Wall will get more than his fair share of lay-ups.  However, given that 3 point percentages give an indication of outside shooting skill, where do you think Wall will end the year?

Poll

John Wall's 3 point shooting percentage in his rookie year?

10%

Less than 17%

12 votes

53%

17% to 25%

61 votes

30%

25% to 33%

35 votes

5%

Greater than 33%

6 votes

114 votes | Poll has closed

 

When Howard returns to action, I envision Arenas, Wall and Hinrich splitting the minutes at the 1 and 2 with spot duty by a 4th guard depending on the game situation.  I’d rate this backcourt as the 10th best in the league (with upside potential to be the 5th best by the end of the season).

I see McGee, Blatche and Yi splitting the minutes at the 4 and 5 with spot duty by a 4th player such as Armstrong depending on the game situation.  I’d rate the front court as the 20th -25th best in the league (with upside to the 15th best by year end if the defensive rebounding improves).

At the swing 3, I’d rate Howard the 15th best in the league (given the recovery from injury).  However, without Howard, I’d rank the Wiz at 25th at the SF.

Poll

How do you rate the backcourt of Arenas, Wall and Hinrich compared to other teams's backcourt combos?

39%

Top 5 in the league

28 votes

49%

5th to 10th best in the league

35 votes

11%

10th to 15th best in the league

8 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

With Wall, Arenas, Blatche and McGee in the starting line-up, what’s missing?

On offense, Wall brings the ability to drive to the hoop and handle the ball.  Arenas and Blatche can hit jumpers.  McGee will get his fair share of alley-oops.  However, to be competitive, the Wiz need another outside scorer at the 3.

On defense, the Wiz have weaknesses at the 2 and 5.  The zone will help mask some weakness, but they need an aggressive defender at the 3.

With respect to rebounding, McGee and Blatche are underweight at their positions and aren’t bangers. They need some strength at the 3 to mix it up under the boards.

To fill these gaps, the contenders for the starting SF are Thornton (no outside shot), Yi (weak D), Morrison (not a banger) or Young (not aggressive).

What’s your choice?

Poll

Your choice for starting SF

56%

Thornton

58 votes

14%

Yi

15 votes

13%

Morrison

14 votes

15%

Young

16 votes

103 votes | Poll has closed

Just like the Cavs, the Heat will have the most regular season wins, but will lose in the playoffs.

The strength of the team lies in its balanced and relentless scoring attack from Bosh, Wade and James.  However, the team’s weakness is its lack of inside strength.

The key to beating the Heat in playoffs is having a plethora of big men.  First, the big men need to take away James’ and Wade’s drives to the basket – literally pummeling them on every drive. Without going to the basket, James and Wade are just average jump shooters. For example, they shoot only 33% and 30% from 3, respectively. Second, the big men need to control both boards so as to cut down on the Heat’s fast breaks.

Who has the firepower upfront?  The Celts have Shaq, Perkins, KG, Jermaine O’Neil and Big Baby.   That’s certainly enough.  Orlando will need to beef up, but Howard has demonstrated that he’s up to his part of the task. The Lakers have Bynum, Artest, Odom and Gasol. They will certainly get one bruiser before the playoffs.

How do the Wiz stack up against the Heat?  Not well. While Arenas and Howard may make some games interesting, the Wiz won’t be able to stop the Heat when it matters.  And there is no way that they can beat them in an up tempo game.  When the Heat come to town, the Wiz should dust off Booker, Armstrong and Seraphin and run for cover.

We all know that Arenas isn't worth the value of his contract to any team.

But more to the point, he has more value to other teams than to the Wiz (particularly given the Wiz focus on youth development and defense).

That means Leonsis ought to write down the contract (or buy out of it) and trade Arenas to a wanna-be.

Ted's rationale that Arenas may be worth more later is wrong-headed.  He may be worth less later.  For example, he might be displaying disruptive behavior (again).  He might reinjure the knee.  The demand from wanna-bes might dry up.

Now is the time for Leonsis to step up.  We know EG won't. 

The wait will be a bigger distraction than The Decision.

After Haywood left, McGee averaged 10 points, 6.5 boards and 2.2 blocks over an average of roughly 23+ minutes per game for the rest of the season.

Over the last 8 games, he averaged 13 points, 8.5 boards and 2.9 blocks over roughly the same average number of minutes per game.

Obviously, these numbers show an improvement.  Do you have access to any defensive stats per game (such as those on 82games.com) to see if there was any improvement on D by the end of the season?

As McGee goes on D in 10/11, so go the Wiz.

I'm been traveling and see that Javale got some burn in the last two games.  How did he do?  Was he constantly out of position on D?  Any screenshots?  The boxscore doesn't look bad.

 

Can BF create a Javale's Corner for the rest of the season?  Maybe we can get the dude an extra few minutes here and there if we get a big enough following. We might be able to get Pam to make a guest appearance.

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory?id=9460434

Washington Wizards teammates Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton drew guns on each other during a Christmas Eve locker room argument over a gambling debt, according to The New York Post.

Citing an anonymous source, the newspaper reports in Friday's edition that the standoff was sparked when Crittenton became angry at Arenas for refusing to make good on a gambling debt. That prompted Arenas to draw on Crittenton, who then also grabbed for a gun, league security sources tell the Post

Truth About It did a good job documenting the Dunleavy play at the end of the Indiana game. http://www.truthaboutit.net/2009/12/indianas-game-winning-play-an-example-in-wizards-ineptitude.html

 

But what about the play after that with 0.1 seconds left?  Flip put McGee in, which was the right move.  But 3 Wizards were under the hoop and McGee roamed to the top of the key, where he got the ball.  But his shot wouldn't of counted if it went in.

The only thing that would have worked is an alley-loop tip in.  For example, McGee could have been the only Wiz near the basket (no screens to free him up).  Blatche takes the ball out of bounds and passes it 2-3 feet above the rim.  McGee just tips it down toward the rim.  It's either a bad pass, a foul, goal tending, a miss or it goes in.  Is it asking to much to try this play with less 0.5 seconds?

Assessing the Wiz at the end of preseason:

A.     What they said before and during camp

1 - Flip said Gilbert is our best player and therefore must be our leader

2 - All the players came to camp in great shape

3 - Butler and others put an emphasis staying healthy to contend for a title

4- Flip said we have lots of weapons and therefore he was going to test various combinations

B.     Reality

1 – Gilbert hasn’t been a good leader. Rather, he’s acting like a spoiled 16 year old.

2 – The players are in great shape, but they are rusty (not NBA ready) both individually (with a few notable exceptions) and chemistry-wise as a team.

3 – The team hasn’t been healthy with Crit, Haywood and Jamison experiencing down time.

4 – No rotation has worked particularly well.  Not many got a lot of time together to gel.

C.     Result

The Wiz exit pre-season with no momentum, no identity and playing like a .500 team at best.

D.     Next steps

1 - be patient. A slow start should be expected. (The previous expectations of a fast-start were probably not justified in hindsight). Do not panic (a la EJ) and overplay Arenas and Butler, etc.

2 - pick the starters and sub rotations and stick with them until AJ returns.

3 - get into Arenas’ head and decide whether he is capable of being a leader.

4 – continue to try to get improvements and consistency from McGee, Blatche and Young, and cut them various levels of slack (McGee the most, Blatche the least).

5 – assess the team’s strengths and weaknesses after 30 games to determine whether a trade is needed