SBNation.com User Blog: J(O's)elskIL

Instant Replay, Margins of Error, and the Human Element

J(O's)elskIL — Thu, 09 May 2013 10:32:53 -0000

Umpires have the most unforgiving job of anyone on a baseball field. Whether it's judging if a spinning ball thrown 90 MPH passes through a theoretical area, trying to see two events at once, or managing the flow of a game, umpires are rarely praised. After all, their job is to be invisible.

Many (including myself) think that there is a whole lot of room for improvement over the current system. There are too many missed calls, too many "real" strike zones, too many egos among the men in black. But even a complete conversion of the umpiring job isn't the answer. Why? Because the human element is always going to be there somewhere.

As O's fans, we all know how painful an incorrect HR call can be. Last night, the A's felt the same way (sort of). In the top of the 9th, down 4-3, Adam Rosales hit a long fly ball off the top of the LF wall and pulled into second base with a double. He and A's manager Bob Melvin felt that it had hit the railing over the wall and would thus be a game-tying home run. In accordance with the rules, Melvin requested that the umpires review the call (the HR of course being the only reviewable play). During the review break, every broadcast team watched the tape and saw - a HR. Yet when the umps came back, crew chief Angel Hernandez signaled a double. Melvin stormed out of the dugout to argue the call and was quickly thrown out of the game.

So progress has been made. We've moved from having umpires make uninformed mistakes to making the same mistakes, but with video. Even full implementation of video review on plays at the plate, catch/traps, or whatever else doesn't mean perfection. This is the human element, and as long as the game will be played, there will be mistakes and blown calls.

So what does (or should) this mean for the future of umpiring? Probably not much. But this incident has made me think about other changes I'd like to see made to the game in this regard. For example, Pitch f/x. It's an excellent system, very accurate and in every ballpark in the majors, but still has a margin of error (MOE) (I've found several different claims on the exact error, most say it's ~1 in.). Of course, margins of error are impossible to eliminate, so those who support eventual robotification of calling balls and strikes will have to live with it. But more pressing than the natural MOE there is the issue of the vertical definition of the strike zone. MLB defines the strike zone as such:

The STRIKE ZONE is that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap. The Strike Zone shall be determined from the batter’s stance as the batter is prepared to swing at a pitched ball.

Unfortunately, no one has really come up with a good way of managing that with Pitch f/x. Brooks Baseball just uses 1.5 ft. and 3.5 ft. as the designated lower and upper boundaries. Obviously this is a wrong approach since not all players the same height, and even the same player may change his batting stance. Either the boundaries will need to be entered into calculations in real time by (gasp!) humans, or maybe sensors sewn into the uniforms in the appropriate spots. Even the more theoretically accurate, computerized method is inaccurate as it would compound MOE issues along with any malfunctions that may occur.

The bottom line for me is this: sometimes the pursuit of perfection may mar the thing we are trying to perfect. The human element isn't going away, ever. There's no reason to embrace it, as some traditionalists have, but maybe we should all accept it.

The STRIKE ZONE is that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap. The Strike Zone shall be determined from the batter’s stance as the batter is prepared to swing at a pitched ball.

Offseason discussion: Would you rather fight 100 duck-sized horses or 1 horse-sized duck?

J(O's)elskIL — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 16:25:12 -0000

God, please bring us some O's news soon!

Apparently, Fanposts need to be at least 75 words long or it won't let you post.Apparently, Fanposts need to be at least 75 words long or it won't let you post.Apparently, Fanposts need to be at least 75 words long or it won't let you post.Apparently, Fanposts need to be at least 75 words long or it won't let you post.Apparently, Fanposts need to be at least 75 words long or it won't let you post.

God, please bring us some O's news soon!

Poll

What would you rather fight to the death?

100 duck-sized horses

30 votes

1 horse-sized duck

16 votes

46 votes | Poll has closed

50 Reasons I Love the 2012 Baltimore Orioles' Season

J(O's)elskIL — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 10:40:13 -0000

I've never been through a more intense, insane, and awesome season as this one. After Game 162, I was fully ready to settle in and let that warm the cockles of my fandom for as long as it took. Turns out it didn't take long for a bunch of amazing events this season to displace it.

1) The cartoon bird.

2) Dan O'Hare and 90 wins.

3) THOR!

4) Sept 6, 2012. Cal statue game v Yankees.

5) Manny Machado playing 3rd like a GGer.

6) Mark Reynolds playing solid 1B.

7) Wei-Yin Chen being the bedrock of the rotation.

8) Turning Guts into Hammel and Saunders.

9) PHN's demise. Wait, demise is too gentle a word. Catastrophic implosion; yeah, that's closer.

10) Matusz's 1.91 FIP as a reliever.

11) Tommy Hunter hitting 101 MPH out of the 'pen.

12) Nicky finally finding his stroke again.

13) 16 straight extra-inning wins.

14) JJ's ridiculous 95 MPH fastball that moves like it weighs 50 pounds.

15) Chris Tillman being who we hoped he could be (let's hope he keeps it up).

16) Buck being awesome.

17) The Hall-of-Famers statue unveilings. Another gem in the crown that is OPaCY and a deserved honor to some of the game's greatest players.

18) AJ becoming a leader on and off the field. So glad to have him around for a while.

19) Being this close to the division lead for the entire stretch run.

20) Never, not once, being under .500 this year.

21) The bullpen's 3.00 ERA.

22) Chris Davis striking out Adrian Gonzalez.

23) Chris Davis striking out Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

24) Shaving cream pies.

25) STROP! (pre-September)

26) Nate McLouth. I'm still surprised by this guy.

27) MiGo being approx. 243 different kinds of amazing.

28) Joe Saunders leading the O's past Darvish and the Rangers in the WC game and shutting down the MFY in game 4.

29) Seeing Camden Yards sold out and rocking in the playoffs for the first time since 1997.

30) Hammel's 1 hitter in Atlanta.

31) Slapping the PHN around, winning 13 of 18 games and sweeping them in Camden North.

32) JJ and 51 (!) freaking saves.

33) Kevin Gregg's DFA.

34) Steve Pearce. Not as a player, but rather as a guy who went, in one season, from Yankees-Orioles-Astros-Yankees-Orioles.

35) DD and his 58 different players over the year.

36) Brian Roberts making it all the way back from his concussion (I'm ignoring his hip injury).

37) JI... JIM THOME mashing taters in Cleveland.

38) Friday night victory GIF parties.

39) Rick Peterson and whatever magic he has up his sleeve.

40) Making the end of the losing season streak a non-story since they were on the way to the playoffs.

41) Dylan Bundy tearing up the minors and tossing a couple scoreless in the bigs.

42) KLaw insisting that the O's are no good.

43) Taylor Teagarden being impossibly clutch. Ridiculous.

44) Darren O'Day humiliating the MFY all through the ALDS.

45) 3DG, Jim Palmer and Bordick.

46) Hometown kid Steve Johnson coming out of nowhere to pitch 38.1 IP to the tune of a 2.11 ERA. WHAT???

47) Troy Patton being more than just a LOOGY.

48) The Mark Reynolds/ Buck Showalter GIF

49) Manny's non-throw play.

50) ORIOLES MAGIC!

1) The cartoon bird.

2) Dan O'Hare and 90 wins.

3) THOR!

4) Sept 6, 2012. Cal statue game v Yankees.

5) Manny Machado playing 3rd like a GGer.

6) Mark Reynolds playing solid 1B.

7) Wei-Yin Chen being the bedrock of the rotation.

8) Turning Guts into Hammel and Saunders.

9) PHN's demise. Wait, demise is too gentle a word. Catastrophic implosion; yeah, that's closer.

10) Matusz's 1.91 FIP as a reliever.

11) Tommy Hunter hitting 101 MPH out of the 'pen.

12) Nicky finally finding his stroke again.

13) 16 straight extra-inning wins.

14) JJ's ridiculous 95 MPH fastball that moves like it weighs 50 pounds.

15) Chris Tillman being who we hoped he could be (let's hope he keeps it up).

16) Buck being awesome.

17) The Hall-of-Famers statue unveilings. Another gem in the crown that is OPaCY and a deserved honor to some of the game's greatest players.

18) AJ becoming a leader on and off the field. So glad to have him around for a while.

19) Being this close to the division lead for the entire stretch run.

20) Never, not once, being under .500 this year.

21) The bullpen's 3.00 ERA.

22) Chris Davis striking out Adrian Gonzalez.

23) Chris Davis striking out Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

24) Shaving cream pies.

25) STROP! (pre-September)

26) Nate McLouth. I'm still surprised by this guy.

27) MiGo being approx. 243 different kinds of amazing.

28) Joe Saunders leading the O's past Darvish and the Rangers in the WC game and shutting down the MFY in game 4.

29) Seeing Camden Yards sold out and rocking in the playoffs for the first time since 1997.

30) Hammel's 1 hitter in Atlanta.

31) Slapping the PHN around, winning 13 of 18 games and sweeping them in Camden North.

32) JJ and 51 (!) freaking saves.

33) Kevin Gregg's DFA.

34) Steve Pearce. Not as a player, but rather as a guy who went, in one season, from Yankees-Orioles-Astros-Yankees-Orioles.

35) DD and his 58 different players over the year.

36) Brian Roberts making it all the way back from his concussion (I'm ignoring his hip injury).

37) JI... JIM THOME mashing taters in Cleveland.

38) Friday night victory GIF parties.

39) Rick Peterson and whatever magic he has up his sleeve.

40) Making the end of the losing season streak a non-story since they were on the way to the playoffs.

41) Dylan Bundy tearing up the minors and tossing a couple scoreless in the bigs.

42) KLaw insisting that the O's are no good.

43) Taylor Teagarden being impossibly clutch. Ridiculous.

44) Darren O'Day humiliating the MFY all through the ALDS.

45) 3DG, Jim Palmer and Bordick.

46) Hometown kid Steve Johnson coming out of nowhere to pitch 38.1 IP to the tune of a 2.11 ERA. WHAT???

47) Troy Patton being more than just a LOOGY.

48) The Mark Reynolds/ Buck Showalter GIF

49) Manny's non-throw play.

50) ORIOLES MAGIC!

I cried tonight when I saw the CC frontpage

J(O's)elskIL — Mon, 01 Oct 2012 17:18:49 -0000

I've been waiting for so long; it never seemed to get any closer. Year after year, season after season, all we had to talk about was the farm system and "Oh, well when Wieters is here... when Manny makes it... When Bundy is atop the rotation...".

Enough.

Out of nowhere, the 2012 Orioles came, saw, and conquered. I don't think I ever started a season with lower expectations, and I know many shared my feelings. Written off by almost all the sports media, I planned for another season of waiting.

All the way back to the GM search fiasco that has turned into a blessing. The talk of Buck wielding too much authority, the rejections, the scorn. With middling role players being the only additions to a roster full of holes, why expect anything different than the past years? Even our biggest signing of the offseason, Wada, got hurt before the season started.

This team has done the almost impossible. The rotation is unrecognizable from April, the lineup is full of rejects and has-beens, and the bullpen is... well, it's a bullpen.

They've defeated the stats, they've baffled the scouts, they've driven fans crazy. And through it all, there was Camden Chat. The season isn't over yet, and won't be until the O's are parading the streets of B-more with the trophy; but it has already been an amazing ride, one that no one here will forget. Even from half a world away, O's fandom has come together, been reignited, excited a city aching for meaningful baseball again. Baltimore was always a baseball town, but for the past few years, the O's have been an afterthought. Now they're finally back in the spotlight where they belong.

After a decade and a half of failure (for what is success in baseball but the playoffs?); we can all say that the team we love, the team we've agonized over, hated, shaken our heads at, maybe even given up on, has finally succeeded.

I apologize for the stream-of-conciousness babble, and thank you all for letting me ride along with you all season long. I couldn't have chosen a better place to do so.

Enough.

This team has done the almost impossible. The rotation is unrecognizable from April, the lineup is full of rejects and has-beens, and the bullpen is... well, it's a bullpen.

I apologize for the stream-of-conciousness babble, and thank you all for letting me ride along with you all season long. I couldn't have chosen a better place to do so.

Scoreboard Watching 19/9/12

J(O's)elskIL — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 19:21:52 -0000

The enemy of my enemy is my friend...chat here about NYY vs TOR, OAK vs DET, BOS vs TB, TEX vs LAA

John Sickels' midseason top 120 prospects

J(O's)elskIL — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 11:03:56 -0000

John Sickels' midseason top 120 prospects

Just as we expected, Bundy (#4) and Machado (#8) are near the top of the list.
However, Jonathan Schoop, our #3 prospect, slid 15 spots on Sickles' list; from #77 to #92.
No other O's made or were considered for the list.

The Wire Spoilers!!!

J(O's)elskIL — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 13:22:58 -0000

Spoilers ahead!!! Don't say I didn't warn you

The O's and Early Bullpen Usage

J(O's)elskIL — Thu, 17 May 2012 08:05:39 -0000

Last year, the O's bullpen pitched more innings than any other team, 565.2. They weren't particularly good innings either, with a collective FIP of 4.31 and an ERA of 4.18, both of which were 4th worst in baseball.

A lot of this was the fault of the rotation. Pitching the least amount of innings by a significant margin (41.1 less than the 2nd to last Pirates) puts a terrible strain on the relievers. This year though, the SPs are doing a much better job of getting deep into games, pitching 228.2 IP so far, averaging just over 6 IP/GS. This is right in the middle of the pack.

But it hasn't been enough so far.

With all the extra-inning games the O's have played so far (an MLB leading 7) and with those games going deep into extras, the Orioles have already pitched 15 innings more than any other team. That strain is being put directly on the 'pen.

Somehow, the O's don't lead but are only second in relief innings (132.1, behind the Royals with 144.1) and 24 innings over average (108.1), while the median is just lower than that.

I would be worried by this since we saw what happens when a bullpen wears down but 12.1 IP were thrown by pitchers that aren't/ shouldn't/ won't be a real part of the bullpen this year so I'm not stressing out over those. Those pitchers are Eveland (4.2) (he might stay around if Lindstrom stays out), Chris Davis (2), Phillips (0.2), Berken (1), and Pomeranz (4). This means that the core of the 'pen (JJ, Strop, O'Day, Patton, Gregg, Ayala, Lindstrom) have pitched just 120 IP so far.

Strop leads with 21 IP. That puts him on pace for almost 90 IP. That should be a red flag for Buck as it might be too much work for a young reliever. The rest of the 'pen is fine, with only Ayala on pace for over 80 IP (81.1) and the rest on pace for less than 75.

Overall the bullpen has been worked hard (3.48 IP/G), mostly because of all the extra-inning play. But it seems Buck has been using his relievers efficiently, putting his best pitchers in the highest leverage situations. From highest to lowest average leverage (according to Fangraphs pLI): JJ, Strop, Ayala, Eveland (ESSS), Lindstrom, Gregg, O'Day and Patton. I'd say that's pretty damn close to a ranking of the O's bullpen talent with a minor tweak or two. This is what good starting pitching allows you to do. Keep it up Buck!

O's Recap: April

J(O's)elskIL — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 16:01:23 -0000

May we see many more similar pictures.

Ah, April. The ground is still springy with winter thaw, the weather not yet in full spring mode, and the sounds of baseball finally back in the air. Our beloved Orioles begin another journey towards the promised land (slightly ahead of the Blue Jays); and while hope springs eternal, 14 consecutive years of sub-.500 baseball has a way of dampening even the most jovial spirits.

April has not been kind to the O's in the recent past. You have to go back to 2008 to find the last April of above .500 play. But never you mind that! Slap on your orange-tinted glasses, lean back with a bucket of the Kool-Aid, and let's review the first winning April the O's have had in 4 years.

May we see many more similar pictures.

Series #1: BAL v MIN

Opening Day was back in Baltimore after a two year hiatus and OPACY was in fine form with some significant renovations improving the best ballpark in baseball during its 20th anniversary celebration. A sellout crowd of 46,773 was on hand to watch two of the worst teams in the AL last year duke it out.

The obvious storyline of the opening series was the starting pitching with Jake Arrieta (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 2 BB), Tommy Hunter (7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K), and Jason Hammel (8 IP, 2 H, 1 R) all put in very solid performances to lead the O's to a season opening sweep. After last year, the pitching staff in general and the rotation especially were a source for concern on CC; particularly after Jeremy Guthrie, the rock of our rotation, was traded to Colorado for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. However, early on in the season our starting pitchers have been pitching well and deep into games, allowing Buck to use only the good parts of the bullpen (namely, NOT Kevin Gregg).

Record: 3-0

Series #2: BAL v NYY

The following series proved far more challenging for the Orioles; as the Evil Empire swept in from its hometown of Mordor. The O's couldn't continue their momentum from the previous series and were swept by the MFY.

This series featured Brian Matusz falling apart quickly after his strong spring, Wei-Yin Chen's solid debut and more defensive miscues than I'd like to recount. Suffice it to say that the O's could have, nay, should have, won at least one of the last two games as they both featured extra inning losses brought on in part by shoddy fielding.

In summary, F#$^ the Yankees.

Record: 3-3

Series #3: BAL @ TOR

Call me weak hearted but I was pretty pessimistic going into this series. Our recent sweep and former complete inability to win games north of the border got me down. The O's had other plans.

For me, this series was the swallow announcing the arrival of Nolan Reimold. In a series featuring mediocre starting pitching, strong hitting was needed and Moldy answered the call going 5-for-10 with 2 HR and 2 2B in only two out of three games. His clutch two-run homer in the top of the 9th in the first game gave the O's a much needed victory. He's started hot and hasn't slowed down much. Leaving with a series win felt good, even after Matusz and Captain Chaos decided that winning is silly in game 3.

Record: 5-4

Series #4: BAL @ CHW

This was a crazy series. We had three good starting performances, one crappy one, a bunch of fielding goofs and one outstanding performance by Matt Wieters in the first game of the set.

The wins in this series were hard fought with one game going into extra innings and a couple more being the kind of tight games that the O's just don't usually win. Maybe something is different this year since even with all the errors in the field, the O's found ways to win. Mad props to the bullpen this series. Except for the loss (which was a lost cause early on with Hunter getting hammered) the relief pitching for the O's was stellar. The only reason I didn't praise all four games is because I had to see the abomination named Kevin Gregg in that loss.

Record: 8-5

Series #5: BAL @ LAA

The last leg of our cross-country road trip landed the O's in sunny SoCal to face the Angels. The Angels have one of the strongest starting rotations in the AL and it showed on this trip with the O's being held to exactly 3 runs in each game.

Brian Matusz and the defense continued their horrid start to the season, Jake Arrieta melted down after 4 strong innings and Dan Haren got a generous K-zone to hold the O's to one win squeezed out in extra innings. Nick Markakis gets my vote as series MBP for his clutch hitting late in game 3. After being squeezed all night at the plate, Nick got 2 critical base hits and knocked in all three O's runs, including the winning one. Not a great way to finish up a road trip even though it ended up as a 6-4 cross country swing.

Record: 9-7

Series #6: BAL v TOR

Good starting pitching is a beautiful thing to behold. All three games featured quality starting performances by the O's, even one by Brian Matusz (!) en route to a sweep of the Blue Jays and a return to first place in the AL East.

It's quite lucky that the arms came on time since the bats were mostly silent during this series with only 10 runs scored over 3 games. Tommy Hunter earned a win despite living dangerously up in the zone; Jason Hammel continued to impress with a fourth solid outing lowering his ERA to a minuscule 1.73. Brian Matusz was this close to getting his first pitching win in almost 10 months and only gave up two unearned runs on a Nick Johnson error. Matusz showed a lot of improvement this last outing and we all hope we get to see that guy some more.

Record: 12-7

Series #7: BAL v OAK

The O's rounded out April with a 3 game series against the second weakest hitting team in the majors: the Oakland Athletics. Luckily for them, their pitching almost makes up for it. Sporting a 3.02 ERA and a 3.68 FIP led by Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon and his enhanced repaired shoulder, the O's needed their bats to come alive in order to finish the month on a high note.

After an opening game that was just to meh to describe, the Orioles celebrated the first of six unveiling of statues of the O's greats. Saturday was Frank Robinson's turn. In the game, the O's pounded Tyson Ross early and often and gave Chen an eventual 9-run cushion en route to an easy 10-1 win. Chris Davis, who finally has been hitting consistently with his newfound playing time, went 3-4 with 4 RBIs and the 59th Eutaw Street HR.

The rubber game matched Colon and Hunter against each other and a pitching duel of sorts emerged. While neither pitcher was dominant, the offenses were kept in check until the A's tacked on a run in each of the 6th and 7th innings. O'Day and Strop kept the A's off the board for the rest of the game but it seemed like the O's hitters wouldn't crack Colon. Then, with one out in the bottom of the ninth, the Orioles managed to tie the game on a double by SHJ, driving in JJ and AJ. Tie game! Two batters later, Wilson Betemit homered to give the Orioles the walk-off win and the series.

Record: 14-8

This April seemed different to me. Not just the winning part, but how the O's won. To be successful a team needs to beat the weak teams, be OK against the good teams and hold their own against the mediocre teams. The O's now sit 6 games above .500, a mark they haven't reached since July 20, 2005. That's far too long. All in all it's been a good month and if some of the performances are sustainable (Davis, Hammel, AJ) we might be in for a fun season. So remember this feeling because May and it’s much tougher schedule is right around the corner.

A summary of the new CBA

J(O's)elskIL — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:08:43 -0000

A summary of the new CBA

MLB has published a summary of the new CBA. Considering how much this agreement should affect our perception of the O's offseason, there was a lot I didn't know. It's good to finally have first hand info on this.

OT: CC Fantasy Baseball Keeper League

J(O's)elskIL — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 16:32:01 -0000

This Fanpost is just to feel out the interest level in there being a keeper league among CC regulars. The reason I say regulars is because keeper fantasy leagues require long-term commitments and it's easier to count on someone you see commenting more than once. Obviously non-regulars will be considered.

Also to be discussed are settings. Number of teams, size of rosters, keeper rules, auction or snake draft, whether to use a website or spreadsheets, etc. Put your preferences in the comments.

If anyone has experience commishing (real word?) and/or would like to try, they are welcome to. If not, I am willing to. Either way, any input is welcome.

Also to be discussed are settings. Number of teams, size of rosters, keeper rules, auction or snake draft, whether to use a website or spreadsheets, etc. Put your preferences in the comments.

If anyone has experience commishing (real word?) and/or would like to try, they are welcome to. If not, I am willing to. Either way, any input is welcome.

29 Trades for 29 Teams: Boston Red Sox

J(O's)elskIL — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 07:36:51 -0000

Even after a disappointing end to the season and blowing up the front office, the Red Sox, hereafter known as Pink Hat Nation (PHN), know that they still have what it takes to reach the playoffs, especially with the expanded wildcard. But they do have some missing pieces, pieces that the O's can fill nicely. Let's see what we can do.

The most glaring hole on PHN's team last year was the lack of starting depth. Apart from a healthy and productive duo in Lester and Beckett the rest of the rotation was either bad, injured or inconsistent. Even Beckett is inconsistent between seasons and the PHN have to worry that he will keep on with his pattern of having off-years in even numbered seasons. Right now the rotation consists of Lester, Dice-K, Beckett, Bucholz and Miller. Miller and Dice-K are not good or consistent enough to be penciled in if there is another option. Enter Jeremy Guthrie, stage right.

Guts has been discussed among the SB Nation blog Over the Monster as a possible trade target and I agree. He would fit in perfectly in the #4 slot, giving the PHN one of the strongest #4's in the majors. The Sox have a few top pitching prospects on their way to the majors, but with the PHN in constant "win now" mode, they will probably be looking to bridge the gap and Guts is the perfect candidate to fill that hole.

There is also a hole is in the lineup, specifically right field. Ryan Kalish isn't ready for the show and Josh Reddick is better suited as a fourth OF. My first inclination was to package Markakis with Guthrie in order to dump some salary, but on second thought this trade should maximize the return in talent; the O's can keep eating Nicky's salary without too much trouble. Enter Adam Jones, stage left.

AJ's value is as high as it's ever has been and with 3 years left of team control he's more than just a rental. His arm and range would play well in right and he would be an option to back up Ellsbury if he gets injured. With the lineup strong from top to bottom AJ and his weak discipline would probably bat in the bottom third of the lineup but would still be a valuable addition if he builds on this year's success.

With such a valuable package the O's can expect to get a lot back from a strong Sox system. Obviously I will be looking mainly at pitching. Unfortunately (or fortunately, seeing as this is a pretend exercise), many of the PHN top pitching prospects had disappointing seasons and some have worrying injury history. We will take advantage of this to get RF Bryce Brentz (2011: High-A) and RHP Anthony Ranaudo (2011: High-A). Since these players are at the same level as Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado and Johnatan Schoop, they will be MLB ready (hopefully) at the same time, giving the O's a very strong core.

Anthony Ranaudo is a consensus top-10 Red Sox prospect. Fangraphs describes his arsenal as such:

He has a strong repertoire with a 90-95 mph fastball, a solid breaking ball and a good changeup. Ranaudo has a good pitcher’s frame and takes a long stride on the mound.

Although he has an injury history (a stress fracture in the elbow), if his body has healed well, he is considered as having the ceiling of a #1-2 starter.

Bryce Brentz is just outside the top 10 Red Sox prospects and the prediction is that he will become an above-average RF with good range and a strong arm. He is one of the (if not THE) top power hitter in the Red Sox system with the ability to hit for a good average as well.

This is a big trade for both teams, but one that I think is balanced and addresses both teams needs. The Red Sox have a system lacking in top-end talent but very deep in high potential players. Giving up these two won't cripple them and they will get some very good ML players to compete with in the coming seasons.

Since (in my mind) this is a close trade, I'd be more than happy to hear other opinions.

Poll

Who wins this trade (Adam Jones and Jeremy Guthrie for Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz)?

Baltimore

38 votes

Boston

110 votes

Neither. This is a balanced trade.

32 votes

Neither. This would never happen.

88 votes

268 votes | Poll has closed

Pujols or Prince?

J(O's)elskIL — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 06:33:53 -0000

Who would you rather have if offered both with an identical contract (say 9-yr/$22M), Fielder or Pujols?

Before anyone jumps down my throat, think about it. Pujols is declining, his peripherals are getting worse. He is chasing more pitches, taking less walks. Fielder OTOH, is as good as Pujols right now and is in his peak with 2-4 years of the peak left. The only question about him is how he will age given his body type. A similar question can be posed toward Pujols, given a slight uncertainty about his age and the fact that is looks as if he might be aging early which, along with his early peak, raises questions.

I honestly don't know which I would prefer. I leave it to the collective intelligence of CC.

Who would you rather have if offered both with an identical contract (say 9-yr/$22M), Fielder or Pujols?

I honestly don't know which I would prefer. I leave it to the collective intelligence of CC.

Poll

Who would you rather have on your team given an identical contract?

Albert Pujols

6 votes

Prince Fielder

20 votes

26 votes | Poll has closed

Clubhouse Confidential

J(O's)elskIL — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 06:49:23 -0000

After reading a short critique of MLBN's new "analytic" show on Fangraphs, I wanted to check it out. There are only a few clips available on MLB.com and since we don't have MLBN in Israel, that's all I had. But I'm impressed. The show is smart, bases itself around newer baseball analysis methods, is thorough yet understandable to the non-saber-savvy fan, and has interviews with people active in MLB to tie it into reality.

From what I've seen so far, ans excellent show and I'd advise anyone who can to give it a chance.

Link to a 10 minute interview with Buck

From what I've seen so far, ans excellent show and I'd advise anyone who can to give it a chance.

Link to a 10 minute interview with Buck

O's Review: 2011's Most Pleasant Surprises

J(O's)elskIL — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 07:53:02 -0000

If there was ever a season in need of a silver lining, it's this one. A season that started with expectations of grand mediocrity crashed and burned into another wasted season. Yet, to the optimistic (and slightly delusional) observer, a ray or two of sunshine can be seen.

Matt Wieters: One of the biggest busts in baseball history has showed everyone who doubted him why they were wrong. The two biggest knocks on his game before this season were his defense and his right-handed hitting. Well, this year was better. While becoming (probably) the best defensive catcher in the majors (earning an All-Star appearance for it) and allowing just 1 passed ball all year, in addition to throwing out 36% of runners, he also has batted .348/.429/.696 against LHP as a RHB with 10 HR. How ridiculous is that? While his overall numbers can use some work (especially his OBP), He's going to be here, and going to be good, for a long time.

2nd Base: When it became obvious that Brian Roberts was going to be out for the rest of the season, Birdland suffered from collective heartburn. The travesty that was SS and 2B last year was flashing before my eyes. I couldn't take another year of that. Luckily, we had new/old JJ at short (we'll get to him soon), but 2B has not only not been the black hole of sucktitude I was expecting, but gave Robert Andino, and later Ryan Adams, to get extended looks at the keystone. They certainly made the most of it. Andino was solid all year, and while he isn't starter material, I think that he will be a very valuable back-up at 2B, SS and 3B. Adams also has a shot at the starting job next year, even if his batting stats are buoyed by a .383 (!) BABIP.

J.J. Hardy: AM might suck at signing good free agents, but no one can complain about his trades. Getting J.J. for two minor league scrub relievers made this entire season watchable (imagine 2008 happening at shortstop again). Even with a .272 BABIP indicating some bad luck this year, J.J. put up good numbers at the plate, and can handle himself in the field. His plate discipline needs a lot of work (although he was pretty far off his career norms) and his hitting swings wildly from month to month, but the FO made a good decision to wrap him up at a below-market price to hold the fort until Machado is ready. If he stays healthy, he'll be fun to have around.

Poll

Who was the O's most pleasant surprise of 2011?

J.J Hardy

95 votes

Matt Wieters

23 votes

The 2nd base squad (Andino/ Adams)

16 votes

Other (comments)

3 votes

137 votes | Poll has closed

O's Review: 2011's Biggest Disappointments

J(O's)elskIL — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 15:43:58 -0000

Even though I've been an O's fan all my life, it's been an on-and-off affair for many years; baseball news is hard to come by here. In my short time of intensive O's fandom, I've never started a season with such "high" expectations. I was drinking the orange Kool-aid by the gallon, and as much as I hated the Gregg and Vlad signings, I could see the young pitching improving, Roberts coming back healthy and playing his usual solid second base, and Reynolds providing the power bat we've lacked for so long.

All I wanted was 82 wins, apparently, that was too much to ask.

The Candidates

Brian Matusz: So much was expected from Matusz this season. He was meant to build on his late success last season and become the power lefty we all hoped for. Instead he got injured, lost a ton of velocity off his fastball, lost his control and has just been an awful mess.

Kevin Gregg: I don't know if he can be called a disappointment because I didn't expect much of him, just competence. Oh, wait - now I remember why he's a disappointment: he's not even competent. He's has a 1.69WHIP and has walked 15% of the batters he's faced (6.31 BB/9). Oh, and he's a complete douche who always finds excuses for why he sucks.

Buck Showalter: After getting everyone's hopes up last year with a great end to the season and good bullpen managment and timely decisions, Buck has left Vlad as cleanup and Gregg as a high leverage pitcher all season long. Some of this must be pressure from above, but doesn't Buck have a limit?

Mark Reynolds: We were promised homers. We got homers. His offensive production has matched what everyone thought we would get, with a slightly better K/BB ratio than expected. But his fielding at 3rd was easily the worst in the majors by any standard and has sapped all of his on-field value.

Nick Markakis: I love Nicky, but I think I've come to terms with the fact that he will never again be more than a slightly-above-average player. Only 26 doubles this year. Sigh.

Poll

Who has been the biggest disappointment for the O's in 2011?

Brian Matusz

129 votes

Kevin Gregg

14 votes

Buck Showalter

8 votes

Mark Reynolds

1 votes

Nick Markakis

10 votes

Other (comment)

2 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

A summary of the McCourt affair

J(O's)elskIL — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 07:49:07 -0000

A summary of the McCourt affair

Even though this has nothing to do with the O's, I think we can all sympathise with the Dodger fans.
What was once a great franchise has been raped, pillaged, looted, robbed, (you get the point) by this greedy SOB.

Out with the old, in with the Reimold

J(O's)elskIL — Tue, 17 May 2011 07:42:41 -0000

Since the Vlad signing showed up on the radar, CC has been discussing the pro and cons, one of those being that we won't get to see Nolan Reimold this year in Baltimore.

Well, he might just get his chance.

Since the Vlad signing showed up on the radar, CC has been discussing the pro and cons, one of those being that we won't get to see Nolan Reimold this year in Baltimore.

Well, he might just get his chance.

With Lee out for at least a few days with a strained left oblique, Luke Scott can be moved to first, which would also help him play with his torn labrum. That would open up LF for the Pie/ Reimold battle that I (and others) wanted to see at the start of the season.

While Moldy hasn't hit well so far this season (.220/.319/.677), we all remember his amazing '09 season and I do believe that showing confidence in him by giving him another shot will pay off, maybe opening the door to trading Vlad (who is hitting well lately) or Lee at the deadline.

Another option is bringing up Brandon Snyder, the perpetual prospect who is hitting well this year in AAA (.277/.340/.802) and while that is significantly better than what Moldy has done so far, I've been itching to see Reimold back in B-more for ages. He's proven he can hit in the bigs, let's give him the chance to do it again.

Poll

Who should the O's replace Derek Lee with?

Nolan Reimold

16 votes

Brandon Snyder

14 votes

Rhyne Hughes (also hitting well)

2 votes

Other (post in comments)

7 votes

39 votes | Poll has closed

Singing the Praise of Wieters' Defense

J(O's)elskIL — Thu, 05 May 2011 11:16:17 -0000

Everyone on this site loves Matt Wieters, and why not? A hugely touted prospect who looks like he might finally be putting it together at the plate, gets rave reviews on his handling of our young rotation, and is one of the best defensive catchers in the game.

We've seen plenty of plays by Wieters this year and he's just looking great. I just wanted everybody to know HOW good he has been so far this year behind the plate.

It is well known that defense is the hardest aspect of the game to quantify, but there are a few areas where we can feel safe with our stats without depending on subjective sources.

So far in 2011, Wieters hasn't allowed a passed ball. Among all catchers with over 150 Inn. played, only 5 have not allowed a passed ball ( those same 5 also have not allowed a wild pitch). He also leads those 5 in innings played with 231.0, 13 more than the runner-up.

He is also dominating baserunners. Some things can never be quantified, like holding runners by fear of being cut down, but in the basestealing biz, he rules supreme. Official stats say he has 9 CS against 8 SB, which would rank him 2nd in CS% with 53%, trailing only Kurt Suzuki (13/17, 57%). A closer look, however, reveals an interesting fact: pickoffs are counted as CS for the catcher at the time. Since (obviously) the catcher has nothing to do with that, Baseball Reference also counts CS by catchers. Suzuki's CS drops to 7(!) which drops his CS% to 35%. Even though Matty also loses a CS to a pickoff, his 8/8 SB/CS is good for 50% and no one else is even close. He is also one of the least-run-on catchers (which I believe is a result of his awesomeness).

Baseball Reference's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) says Wieters has been worth 5 defensive runs so far, putting him on pace for over 22 runs of defensive value (assuming 1050 Inn., similar to last year). Even to those who don't put much weight into advanced metrics, Wieters is a consistently great fielder, and if he starts hitting a little better (like we all hope he will), he might just meet those lofty expectations of him. What's the fielding equivalent of Switch Hitting Jesus?

In- Season Batter Regression Tool

J(O's)elskIL — Sun, 01 May 2011 11:52:48 -0000

In- Season Batter Regression Tool

An excellent spreadsheet from SBN blog Beyond The Boxscore.
You can see how well the players are "supposed" to be doing according to 3 year avgs and 2011 BABIP.

Our Underrated Ace

J(O's)elskIL — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 09:18:52 -0000

This is my first attempt at posting. Any comments or constructive criticism will be appreciated.

(I know Andrew_G did a similar piece on OD, but this is a subject I've wanted to write about for a while)

I lately got into a discussion online with another baseball fan when I called Guts "a legitimate #2 on any team." He has a strong saber-slant, as do I, and although by looking at Guts' advanced stats it may not show, I still believe he is a solid pitcher and a deserving ace until either Matusz or Britton are ready.

This is my first attempt at posting. Any comments or constructive criticism will be appreciated.

(I know Andrew_G did a similar piece on OD, but this is a subject I've wanted to write about for a while)

Never a strikeout pitcher (5.5 career K/9), Guts' ability to limit his baserunners depends on his ability to limit his walks. Between 2007-2010, or in other words, since joining the O's and becoming a regular SP, he ranks 23 among qualified starters in BB/9 with just 2.5, giving him a 2.2 K/BB rate.

During his terrible 2009, which has left a real black mark on his reputation, many of his career ratios took a turn for the worse. His HR/9 jumped to 1.58, riding a change in FB%, which jumped from 38 to 46.5%. This change came with a drop in his GB%, which reached a career low 34.7%. In addition, the percentage of batters he stranded dropped almost 6 percent from 76.7 to 70.9.

2009 was also the only year when Guthrie's BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) even approached league average, as he logged a BABIP of .286 (league average is between .290-.300). His figures for the other years? .270, .259, .254.

Many things can lower BABIP, mostly a good fielding team behind you and a high GB% or low LD% (ground balls are the least likely to be hits, line drives the most). We can all agree that for the past 4 years the O's haven't fielded great defensive teams, to say the least, and Guts' career ground ball and line drive rates are just about average.

So why the success? The only two stats I could find that are either far above or below average were LOB% and BABIP. These two stats, coincidentally, are the two most associated with luck. But when someone can keep being "lucky" over 3 of 4 full seasons, you start to wonder if the dice are loaded. Apparently, Guts is just one of those cases that (thankfully) remind us that stats can't predict everything, and that "stuff", that elusive, unquantifiable quality, is just as real as wOBAcon (had to get that in there somehow). And Guts has "stuff". By consistently outperforming his peripheral stats, Jeremy Guthrie has given us a legit staff ace during difficult times.

Hail Weaver!

J(O's)elskIL — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 17:27:46 -0000

Hail Weaver!

I never knew Earl Weaver was known for being the "grandfather of sabermetric managers".

Platooning Closers: Good Idea or Great Idea?

J(O's)elskIL — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 07:55:40 -0000

Platooning Closers: Good Idea or Great Idea?

There's been quite a bit of talk around O's Nation about 9th inning duties. While Gregg, Gonzo and Koji will spend ST vying for colsing duties, I hope Buck will choose this option, which I've always been a fan of.