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Projections Wrap Up: Looking Back at a Wild Ride
by J-Doug on Nov 2, 2011 4:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
As you all know by now, the comeback kids really pulled it off. On August 24th, the St. Louis Cardinals were 10.5 games out of the playoffs. On September 5th, Baseball Prospectus pegged the Cards at 0.7% to reach postseason play. On October 5th, our Log5 model saw St. Louis as 2.4% shots to win it all. Despite all odds, Tony LaRussa, Albert Pujols, David Freese & Co. succeeded in winning their eleventh title last Friday night.
Nobody was more surprised than the Texas Rangers, who dominated October nearly wire-to-wire (nearly being the key adverb here). According to our Log5 projections, St. Louis was only the favorite to win it all on two occasions: first, after going up 2-1 in the World Series; second, after actually winning it all (no, I'm not going to pat myself on the back for calculating that one).
In fact, the Rangers' WS% averaged above 50% for the duration, while the Cardinals mean WS% was 21%, barely ahead of the Phillies whom they defeated in the first round (not counting most days on which their probability would have been 0%). So said our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Analysis of the fan vote and more after the jump.
*Means only count one day after which the team was eliminated. Poor Diamondbacks, they never had a chance.
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Projections Update: Ignore These Projections
by J-Doug on Oct 28, 2011 12:30 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Notwithstanding David Freese's Fiskian performance in last night's wild sixth game, the Rangers have a better-than-even chance of besting the Cardinals. So says our Log5 postseason simulator, based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus, about the first World Series Game Seven since 2002.
And now that you've read that, forget it. Why? I'll tell you, after the jump.
Projections Update: Rangers on History's Doorstep
by J-Doug on Oct 25, 2011 1:30 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Thanks to Mike Napoli--again--timely defense and some interesting decisions by Tony La Russa, the Texas Rangers find themselves one game away from their first world championship. They'll have to beat the Cardinals in St. Louis, but our model indicates that they won't have that much trouble doing so.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. And that's pretty much all I have to say about that.
Projections Update: Rangers Regain Edge
by J-Doug on Oct 24, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Last night, Mike Napoli and Derek Holland helped the Rangers tie up the World Series and retake the lead in our projections. The Fall Classic will now run six games for only the second time in eight years, and the underdog Cardinals (2:1) will have a shot to win it all at home.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Cardinals Favored for First Time in 2011
by J-Doug on Oct 23, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Thanks to an historic performance by Albert Pujols, an errant call at first base, and generally mediocre pitching, the St. Louis Cardinals are favored to win the World Series for the first time this postseason--barely. Our model has both teams in a dead heat at 1:1, with the Rangers trailing the Cardinals by a mere 1.2%.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: It's a Brand New Series
by J-Doug on Oct 21, 2011 10:01 AM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Rangers and Cardinals head to Arlington tied at one game apiece, and it's a brand new series in more ways than one. In terms of their title chances, both Texas (2:5) and St. Louis (5:2) are right back where they started.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Cards Strike Blow to Rangers' Odds
by J-Doug on Oct 20, 2011 9:01 AM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
A team that was once 10.5 games out of the playoffs is now three games away from a World Championship. The Cardinals struck the first blow in the 2011 Fall Classic, but the model still favors the Rangers at 56.8%.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
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World Series Projections: Texas over St. Louis in Five
by J-Doug on Oct 17, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Note: the original chart reversed the distribution of game outcomes for St. Louis. The error has been rectified. I thank our vigilant readers for catching this and apologize for any confusion.
Defying all odds, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in the World Series, ready to take on the heavy favorites: the Texas Rangers.
Point of fact: I did not expect the Cardinals to be here, not in August, not in September, not last week. My simulator didn't think any more highly of them. Yet, here we are. Our projections have the Rangers as 2:5 favorites, with the most likely outcome being a Texas win in five games.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Texas Dominant After Second AL Triumph
by J-Doug on Oct 16, 2011 1:05 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Rangers punched their ticket to the 2011 Fall Classic last night with a 15-5 win, dominating the Tigers in much the same way they've dominated our postseason projections. They're now 70.7% favorites to win the World Series. Meanwhile the favored Cardinals attempt to fend off the hometown Brewers tonight for the National League crown.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Cardinals One Game Away
by J-Doug on Oct 15, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The St. Louis Cardinals, laughably out of contention in August, are on the verge of being the sole National League representatives in October. With one win against the Brewers in Milwaukee--a 68.2% possibility--the Cardinals will return to the World Series for the third time in eight seasons.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Brewers, Tigers Stay In Race
by J-Doug on Oct 14, 2011 11:30 AM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Tigers and Brewers needed wins last night to force a sixth game. They got them. For the Brewers, this means they have a 55.6% chance to win it in front of the hometown crowd. The Tigers, on the other hand, need to win two games in hostile territory, a 16.6% feat according to our system.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Cards NL Favorites for First Time
by J-Doug on Oct 13, 2011 12:02 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Rangers' World Series chances are healthier than ever, and the Tigers are hanging on by a thread, but perhaps the biggest news is that the St. Louis Cardinals are—for the first time this postseason—the favorites to represent the National League in the Fall Classic.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Tigers Halt Rangers' March
by J-Doug on Oct 12, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Tigers won their first game in the 2011 American League Championship series and, in so doing, dealt the Rangers their first loss in a week and a half. With this win, Detroit improves their World Series chances to 6:1.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Can Anyone Stop the Rangers?
by J-Doug on Oct 11, 2011 1:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Sure, the slate is clean once the World Series begins, but by the looks of things one may wonder if anyone's in a position to compete with the 2011 Texas Rangers. Texas hasn't lost since Game 1 of the ALDS, and they've lost ground in WS% only once more: when the Brewers won during the Rangers' ALCS rain-out.
Texas is now 1:6 to win their second consecutive pennant and 2:3 to win their first World Series. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Brewers Climb the Ladder
by J-Doug on Oct 10, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
One game into the NLCS, the Brewers made the first move to establish themselves as the representatives of the National League, likely to face the Rangers in the 2011 Fall Classic. Milwaukee is now 3:7 to win the NLCS and 3:1 to win it all.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Texas Rangers Riding High
by J-Doug on Oct 9, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Rangers and a cold front combined to neutralize Justin Verlander, making Texas the first team to breach the 50% threshold this postseason. This means bad news for the Detroit Tigers, not to mention the Brewers, Cardinals, and readers who don't enjoy headlines with bad clichés.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Postseason Projections: Phils' Exit Makes Texas Big Favorites
by J-Doug on Oct 8, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
What a way to follow up the craziest regular season finish in history but with the wildest LDS in a generation.
Three of the four series went five games--something that hasn't happened since 1981--and all three games were decided by a single run. The St. Louis Cardinals upset the Philadelphia Phillies thanks to masterful pitching by Chris Carpenter, and the Milwaukee Brewers are heading back to the LCS for the first time in nearly three decades thanks to Nyjer "T-Plush" Morgan's extra-innings walk-off against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The early departure of the Phillies and Yankees is welcomed by the Texas Rangers, who host the Detroit Tigers tonight in the first game of the ALCS. We have the Rangers as heavy 3:5 favorites to take their second consecutive pennant and 9:7 to win their first World Series. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Yankees Go Home
by J-Doug on Oct 7, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
You can't predict baseball, Suzyn, but so help me I've tried. The system suffered its first defeat last night along with the favored New York Yankees. The Detroit Tigers, decided underdogs, will now head to Texas to fight for the American League pennant. We have the Rangers as 3:5 favorites in that series.
As for tonight's games, we continue to favor the Phillies and Brewers over the Cardinals and Diamondbacks in Senior Circuit Battle Royale 2011. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: St. Louis, Arizona Fight Back
by J-Doug on Oct 6, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
If, at the start of the postseason, you had bet me that two AL teams would be eliminated before any NL teams, I probably would have taken that bet—and lost. If you had told me that the over/under on the number of games in which the Phillies faced elimination was one, I would have seriously considered taking the under—and lost that bet too. All because the Cardinals and Diamondbacks refuse to surrender, we're headed for three Games Five in the first round.
We have the Yankees as ~57-43 favorites over the Detroit Tigers in tonight's winner-take-all game in New York. In tomorrow night's games, we project the Philadelphia ~62% over St. Louis and the Brewers ~58% over Arizona. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Bid Farewell to Tampa Bay
by J-Doug on Oct 5, 2011 12:02 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Considering the mismatches I first projected in the National League, I would not have expected Tampa Bay to be the first team eliminated in the 2011 postseason. Once a 15% shot to win it all, the Rays will have to wait for another year. In disposing of the Rays, the Texas Rangers rise to an even more dominant position with the victorious Phillies in tow. A.J. Burnett's competent performance put the Yankees back into the discussion as they head back to New York for Game 5, while the Cardinals and Diamondbacks still find themselves on the brink.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Texas, Detroit Win Big
by J-Doug on Oct 4, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
With wins over the Yankees and Rays, the Tigers and Rangers made significant gains on Monday night in their quest for the Commissioner's Trophy. With some help from Detroit, Texas increased their WS% by 10.3—the biggest gain so far of the postseason. Detroit boosted their chances by a respectable 4.3%. The Yankees and Rays, now on the brink of elimination, lost 7.7% and 6%, respectively.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Rangers Reclaim Lead
by J-Doug on Oct 3, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Rangers benefited from their day off as the Tigers and Cardinals upset the Yankees and Phillies, respectively. This leaves Texas in the top spot, trailed closely by Philadelphia. The Yanks and Brewers now find themselves in a dead heat as the Diamondbacks, now on the brink of elimination, have a big hill to climb.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Favorites Pull Ahead
by J-Doug on Oct 2, 2011 1:00 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Click to enlarge.
Last night was a great night for chalk; the top seed was victorious in each match-up. In the case of the Rangers and Rays, this meant they ended up right back where they started (almost). In the case of everyone else, it meant significant gains or losses. As a result, the Phillies extended their lead and the Yankees kept up. The Rangers aren't riding high in the saddle like they were a few days ago, but they're hot on New York's tail.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Projections Update: Phillies Regain Edge
by J-Doug on Oct 1, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
Due to an unfortunate rain-out last night in the Bronx, there was very little change in most teams' playoff chances. Matt Moore's spectacular performance against the Rangers, on the other hand, put the Rays in charge of the ALDS and the Phillies back on top of the whole shebang. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.
Raw data available after the jump.
Postseason Projections: Rangers on Track for First World Championship
by J-Doug on Sep 30, 2011 10:00 AM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
(Click with cromulence to embiggen)
In this postseason debut of my 2011 projections--and for the first time since I started running the numbers--the Texas Rangers find themselves in the driver's seat. It's the first time since mid-August that an AL team is good enough to overcome their peers and the NL's 2-3% home field advantage to claim the top spot. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.
As it stands now, the Phillies (big surprise) will host Texas' first World Championship. The two pennant winners will vanquish the Brewers and Yankees in the LCS.
| Probability of Postseason Series Victory | 9/30/2011 | |||||||
| Inputs | Outputs | |||||||
| Team | Seed | Talent | LDS% | LCS% | WS% | WS HFA | ||
| NYY | 1 | 0.615 | 56.5% | 28.1% | 16.7% | -0.7% | ||
| TEX | 2 | 0.640 | 60.8% | 35.4% | 22.9% | -0.6% | ||
| DET | 3 | 0.589 | 43.5% | 18.4% | 9.9% | -0.3% | ||
| TBR | WC | 0.592 | 39.2% | 18.0% | 9.8% | -0.4% | ||
| PHI | 1 | 0.605 | 65.4% | 43.4% | 21.3% | 1.2% | ||
| MIL | 2 | 0.554 | 58.0% | 24.9% | 9.4% | 0.6% | ||
| ARI | 3 | 0.519 | 42.0% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 0.3% | ||
| STL | WC | 0.530 | 34.6% | 17.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% | ||
| AL | 59.2% | -2.0% | ||||||
| NL | 40.8% | 2.0% | ||||||
It Happens Once Every 250,000 Septembers
by J-Doug on Sep 29, 2011 5:15 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
There's plenty of talk on the Twitterverse, in the blogosphere, and around other awkward neologisms about how improbable just last night was. As our own Satchel Price noted, last night included two Nolanesque comebacks-within-a-comeback. It's the unlikeliness of the larger comeback (and collapse) that I'd like to share with you here.
It's one thing to discuss this past September in the context of the playoff chances of individual teams. But for both St. Louis and Tampa Bay to make it? Well, the numbers seemed nigh on impossible. Posted below is a log-scale chart plotting the likelihood of both underdogs reaching the playoffs, as well as the chances of both favorites missing October.
Click to enlarge. Data available after the jump.
This chart has to be in log-10 scale. There is no other way to present the improbability of a Sox-Braves joint collapse or Rays-Cards joint comeback. Less than a week ago, the odds of either outcome occurring were closer to 1 in 1000 than 1 in 100. On September 4th, the odds for either joint-outcome occurring were a dismal 1 in 100,000. Two days later, the odds of both Tampa Bay and St. Louis playing October were a mind-boggling 1 in 250,000.*
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If the Season Ended Yesterday: Phillies Still Tops
by J-Doug on Sep 20, 2011 3:30 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The playoff contenders have settled into four distinct tiers. On top, alone, we find the Philadelphia Phillies. One rung down we find the Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox. Occupying the penultimate position are the Detroit Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers. Finally, the Braves and Diamondbacks constitute the foundation for this lopsided pyramid. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.
Moreover, there's an insurgency brewing just below the surface. The Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals are making a late run for their respective leagues' wild card berths with some help from the tumbling Red Sox and the bumbling Braves.
And might it actually make sense for the Yankees to take a dive against the Rays? Read the rest of the story after the jump.
| Probability of Postseason Series Victory | 9/19/2011 | |||||||
| Inputs | Outputs | |||||||
| Team | Seed | Talent | LDS% | LCS% | WS% | WS HFA | ||
| NYY | 1 | 0.626 | 51.7% | 29.3% | 17.7% | -0.7% | ||
| DET | 2 | 0.581 | 44.1% | 17.6% | 8.9% | -0.8% | ||
| TEX | 3 | 0.625 | 48.3% | 26.7% | 16.1% | -0.5% | ||
| BOS | WC | 0.619 | 55.9% | 26.4% | 15.6% | -0.6% | ||
| PHI | 1 | 0.615 | 69.6% | 47.3% | 24.1% | 1.7% | ||
| MIL | 2 | 0.549 | 56.7% | 23.7% | 8.7% | 0.5% | ||
| ARI | 3 | 0.515 | 30.4% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 0.2% | ||
| ATL | WC | 0.521 | 43.3% | 15.3% | 4.8% | 0.1% | ||
| AL | 58.4% | -2.6% | ||||||
| NL | 41.6% | 2.6% | ||||||
If the Season Ended Yesterday: Phillies Extend Lead
by J-Doug on Sep 13, 2011 2:01 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
While the Phillies remain the safest bet for the World Series, the streaking Tigers and Rays--as well as the slumping Red Sox and Rangers--are complicating the picture. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. More on the race for the Commissioner's Trophy after the jump.
| Probability of Postseason Series Victory | 9/12/2011 | |||||||
| Inputs | Outputs | |||||||
| Team | Seed | Talent | LDS% | LCS% | WS% | WS HFA | ||
| NYY | 1 | 0.633 | 54.9% | 31.7% | 19.4% | -0.7% | ||
| DET | 2 | 0.579 | 43.0% | 17.0% | 8.4% | -1.0% | ||
| TEX | 3 | 0.616 | 45.1% | 23.8% | 13.7% | -0.4% | ||
| BOS | WC | 0.623 | 57.0% | 27.5% | 16.3% | -0.6% | ||
| PHI | 1 | 0.624 | 66.7% | 48.7% | 25.7% | 1.9% | ||
| ARI | 2 | 0.514 | 49.4% | 16.0% | 4.7% | 0.3% | ||
| MIL | 3 | 0.542 | 33.3% | 18.3% | 6.4% | 0.3% | ||
| ATL | WC | 0.525 | 50.6% | 17.0% | 5.4% | 0.1% | ||
| AL | 57.8% | -2.7% | ||||||
| NL | 42.2% | 2.7% | ||||||
If the Season Ended Yesterday: A Phanatic Phinish
by J-Doug on Sep 8, 2011 3:30 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
For the third week in a row we have a new frontrunner in our postseason simulation series. If the season ended yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies would repeat their 2008 glory and avenge their 2009 loss to the New York Yankees. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.
There's more to this story than the Phillies' impending triumph, including what happens if the Tigers and Rangers switch places. Keep reading to find out more.
| Probability of Postseason Series Victory | 9/7/2011 | |||||||
| Inputs | Outputs | |||||||
| Team | Seed | Talent | LDS% | LCS% | WS% | WS HFA | ||
| NYY | 1 | 0.644 | 58.4% | 34.2% | 21.5% | -0.8% | ||
| DET | 2 | 0.568 | 38.0% | 13.8% | 6.4% | -1.0% | ||
| TEX | 3 | 0.609 | 41.6% | 20.6% | 11.4% | -0.4% | ||
| BOS | WC | 0.638 | 62.0% | 31.4% | 19.3% | -0.8% | ||
| PHI | 1 | 0.624 | 72.3% | 50.0% | 25.5% | 2.0% | ||
| MIL | 2 | 0.550 | 55.6% | 22.4% | 7.8% | 0.5% | ||
| ARI | 3 | 0.508 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 0.2% | ||
| ATL | WC | 0.528 | 44.4% | 15.7% | 4.9% | 0.2% | ||
| AL | 58.6% | -2.9% | ||||||
| NL | 41.4% | 2.9% | ||||||
If the Season Ended Yesterday: BoSox, Phils Neck-and-Neck
by J-Doug on Aug 30, 2011 3:30 PM EDT
in Research
on Beyond the Box Score
The Boston Red Sox have dethroned the Yankees in the AL East (at least for now), driving most of the changes in the playoff probability numbers. Boston's best are now in a dead heat with the Phillies as the favorites for the World Series, both coming in at 3:1. The Yankees dropped into the 3-spot as a result of their recent skid. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.*
There's a lot more to this story than likely World Series winners, however. Keep reading for the rest of it.
*We've tweaked our system since last week, fixing an error in the home field advantage calculation. See methodology below the jump.
| Probability of Postseason Series Victory | 8/29/2011 | |||||||
| Inputs | Outputs | |||||||
| Team | Seed | Talent | LDS% | LCS% | WS% | WS HFA | ||
| BOS | 1 | 0.647 | 69.4% | 39.0% | 24.9% | -0.9% | ||
| TEX | 2 | 0.599 | 42.4% | 19.1% | 10.2% | -0.7% | ||
| DET | 3 | 0.551 | 30.6% | 10.4% | 4.5% | -0.2% | ||
| NYY | WC | 0.645 | 57.6% | 31.5% | 19.9% | -0.8% | ||
| PHI | 1 | 0.619 | 73.4% | 49.1% | 24.2% | 1.6% | ||
| MIL | 2 | 0.551 | 53.2% | 22.2% | 7.7% | 0.5% | ||
| ARI | 3 | 0.495 | 26.6% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 0.2% | ||
| ATL | WC | 0.542 | 46.8% | 18.4% | 6.2% | 0.3% | ||
| AL | 59.5% | -2.6% | ||||||
| NL | 40.5% | 2.6% | ||||||
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