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  • last login Feb 23, 2014
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User Blog

Projections Wrap Up: Looking Back at a Wild Ride


The roller-coaster ride that was the 2011 MLB Postseason, graphed. Volatility was the name of the game.

Projections Update: Ignore These Projections


The Log5 odds favor the Rangers. Now forget about the odds. Just watch history in the making.

Projections Update: Rangers on History's Doorstep


Thanks to David Murphy, timely defense and some questionable decisions by Tony La Russa, the Texas Rangers find themselves one game away from their first world championship. They'll have to beat the Cardinals in St. Louis, but our model indicates that they won't have that much trouble doing so.

Projections Update: Rangers Regain Edge


Last night, Mike Napoli and Derek Holland helped the Rangers tie up the World Series and retake the lead in our projections. The Fall Classic will now run six games for only the second time in eight years, and the underdog Cardinals (2:1) will have a shot to win it all at home.

Projections Update: Cardinals Favored for First Time in 2011


Thanks to an historic performance by Albert Pujols, an errant call at first base, and generally mediocre pitching, the St. Louis Cardinals are favored to win the World Series for the first time this postseason--barely.

Projections Update: It's a Brand New Series


The Rangers and Cardinals head to Arlington tied at one game apiece, and it's a brand new series in more ways than one. In terms of their title chances, both Texas (2:5) and St. Louis (5:2) are right back where they started.

Projections Update: Cards Strike Blow to Rangers' Odds


A team that was once 10.5 games out of the playoffs is now three games away from a World Championship. The Cardinals struck the first blow in the 2011 Fall Classic, but the model still favors the Rangers at 56.8%.

World Series Projections: Texas over St. Louis in Five


Our projections have the Rangers as 2:5 favorites, with the most likely outcome being a Texas win in five games.

Projections Update: Texas Dominant After Second AL Triumph


The Rangers punched their ticket to the 2011 Fall Classic last night with a 15-5 win, dominating the Tigers in much the same way they've dominated our postseason projections. They're now 70.7% favorites to win the World Series.

Projections Update: Cardinals One Game Away


The Cardinals are one game away from the World Series. According to our projections, these are the NLCS elimination scenarios: Cardinals in 6 (43.6 %); Brewers in 7 (31.8%); Cardinals in 7 (24.6%)

Projections Update: Brewers, Tigers Stay In Race


Both the Tigers and the Brewers forced a sixth game last night, but one team has a chance to win it at home while the other faces an uphill struggle in unfriendly territory.

Projections Update: Cards NL Favorites for First Time


The St. Louis Cardinals are—for the first time this postseason—the favorites to represent the National League in the Fall Classic.

Projections Update: Tigers Halt Rangers' March


The Tigers won their first game in the 2011 American League Championship series and, in so doing, dealt the Rangers their first loss in a week and a half. With this win, Detroit improves their World Series chances to 6:1.

Projections Update: Can Anyone Stop the Rangers?


Texas hasn't lost since Game 1 of the ALDS, and they've lost ground in WS% only once more: when the Brewers won during the Rangers' ALCS rain-out.

Projections Update: Brewers Climb the Ladder


Milwaukee is now 3:7 to win the NLCS and 3:1 to win it all. Most likely World Series match-ups, in order: Texas vs. Milwaukee: 52.6%; Texas vs. St. Louis 22.5%; Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee: 17.5%; Detroit vs. St. Louis 7.4%.

Projections Update: Texas Rangers Riding High


The Rangers and a cold front combined to neutralize Justin Verlander, making Texas the first team to breach the 50% threshold this postseason. Read this and other ALCS, NLCS and World Series projections.

Postseason Projections: Phils' Exit Makes Texas Big Favorites


We have the Rangers as heavy 3:5 favorites to take their second consecutive pennant and 9:7 to win their first World Series. Check out this and other LCS and WS predictions.

Projections Update: Yankees Go Home


The system suffered its first defeat last night along with the favored New York Yankees. As for tonight's games, we continue to favor the Phillies and Brewers over the Cardinals and Diamondbacks in Senior Circuit Battle Royale 2011.

Projections Update: St. Louis, Arizona Fight Back


Because the Cardinals and Diamondbacks refuse to surrender, we're headed for three Games Five in the first round. Check out our projections for tonight's game in the Bronx and tomorrow night's games in Philadelphia and Milwaukee.

Projections Update: Bid Farewell to Tampa Bay


In disposing of the Rays, the Texas Rangers rise to an even more dominant position with the victorious Phillies in tow. Read about this and other postseason projections.

Projections Update: Texas, Detroit Win Big


Texas and Detroit win big over the Rays and Yanks, leading to the biggest WS% gains of the postseason. Texas is nearly a 2:1 shot, while once-mighty New York is on the outside looking in.

Projections Update: Rangers Reclaim Lead


The Rangers are riding high, while the Diamondbacks are less likely to advance to the next round than six are to win the World Series. Read about this and projections for the other six playoff squads.

Projections Update: Favorites Pull Ahead


Last night was a great night for chalk; the top-seed was victorious in each match-up. In the case of the Rangers and Rays, this meant they ended up right back where they started (almost). In the case of everyone else, it meant significant gains or losses.

Projections Update: Phillies Regain Edge


The Phillies regain the lead in our postseason numbers, thanks to Matt Moore's vanquishing of the Rangers.

Postseason Projections: Rangers on Track for First World Championship


Rangers in line to win their first World Series, Phillies hot on their tail. Read this and other postseason projections.

It Happens Once Every 250,000 Septembers


Once in a lifetime doesn't even get at it. The odds of both the Sox and Braves missing the playoffs, as well as the odds of both the Rays and Cards making it, together, are positively staggering.

If the Season Ended Yesterday: Phillies Still Tops


There's an insurgency brewing just below the surface. The Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals are making a late run for their respective leagues' wild card berths with some help from the tumbling Red Sox and the bumbling Braves. And might it actually make sense for the Yankees to take a dive against the Rays?

If the Season Ended Yesterday: Phillies Extend Lead


While the Phillies remain the best bet for the World Series, the streaking Tigers and Rays--as well as the slumping Red Sox and Rangers--are complicating the picture.

If the Season Ended Yesterday: A Phanatic Phinish


Should the Phillies win the World Series, they have Prince Fielder to thank, among others. His phenomenal performance in the 2011 All Star Game helped secure home field for the National League, which is currently worth two percentage points for Philadelphia's WS%.

If the Season Ended Yesterday: BoSox, Phils Neck-and-Neck


As of yesterday, the AL East winner was ~12% more likely to win the ALDS, ~7% more likely to win the ALCS, and ~5% more likely to win the World Series than the AL Wild Card. Think about that as the Yankees head into Beantown this week.

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