1 - Number of games the Capitals have won in the past month in which they've allowed a goal.

Since defeating Carolina 2-1 on January 15, the Caps are 4-7-2 with three wins by shutout and a 5-3 win over Boston.

Your savory breakfast links:

• Notes and assorted whatnot from yesterday out at Kettler:
  • In general. [Caps365 video (Rinkside Update, Hunter, Vokoun), WashTimes]
  • Dale Hunter and Michal Neuvirth on the Czech netminders somewhat surprising Monday night benching. [WaPo, WashTimes, SB Nation DC, CSNW, KOL]
  • "I haven’t felt like this for a long time." Mike Green on his recovery from injury or Air Supply lyric? [WashTimes (and in blog form), WaPo, DCEx, CSNW]
  • It's back to Hershey for Keith Aucoin, Braden Holtby and Joel Rechlicz. [WashTimes]
    
• George McPhee is apparently doing his job rather rigorously these days, and probably will be pretty busy over the next two weeks. Just a hunch. [NHL.com, WashTimes, WaPo, PHT, RMNB, Bar South]
• Mike Knuble just wants to play... somewhere. [WashTimes, WaPo, NHL.com, CSNW]
• Are the Caps shooting themselves in the foot with some of their lineup decisions? [Dump 'n Chase]
• Wyshynski and Marek talk about how to fix the Caps. [Fan590 (audio, about 1/3 of the way through)]
• Alan May chats Caps on the Sports Reporters. [ESPN980 (audio)]
• Regarding that Rechlicz misconduct the other night. [D.C. Sports Bog, SB Nation DC]
• If you're Alexander Semin, the good news is that your peers consider you to be "All-Star-caliber;" the bad news is... well, click through. [Puck Daddy]
• I can buy "1a and 1b," but Alex Ovechkin "a distant fourth" behind Ilya Kovalchuk (last night notwithstanding)? C'mon. [ESPN]
• "Perhaps the best solution would be to stop trying to change their offensive thoroughbreds into defensive plow horses and turn them loose to do what they do best." (Turn whom loose, exactly? That the Caps got defensive and then the goals dried up, rather than the other way around, is one of the great misconceptions in and around Capsland over the past couple of seasons.) [THN]
• Practice? We're talkin' 'bout practice? [RtR]
• The Caps have become unwatchable (but I'm guessing you're still watching). [StC]
• Really interesting read about a fighter and a fight from up in Hershey. [Patriot-News, with more from Bears practice here]
• Evgeny Kuznetsov knows that that to get a garbage goal, you go to the trash can. Oh, and he also apparently knows how to pop his shoulder back into its socket. Multiple times. [SovSport via Alex Ovetjkin]
• "Washington vs. Hershey" in the same building in which The Beatles played their first U.S. concert. Mind = Blown.[Ghosts of DC]
• Good on the Caps (and you all) for raising more than $350k (that's two-thirds of a Mathieu Perreault!) for charity at Casino Night. [CSNW]
• Finally, happy 38th birthday to Martin Gendron, and it's also Jaromir Jagr's 40th birthday today.

3 - Number of games since the lockout in which the Caps got goals from three different defensemen - November 5, 2010 (Tyler Sloan, Mike Green and John Carlson), November 26, 2010 (Carlson, John Erskine and Tom Poti) and last night (Dmitry Orlov, Roman Hamrlik and Jeff Schultz).

Your savory breakfast links:

• Recaps and other assorted musings on last night's loss from us, Caps365 video (Hunter, Caps players, McLellan, Sharks players), Vogs, Capitals Voice, NHL.com, WaPo (gamer, blog), WashTimes (gamer), DCEx (gamer, blog), CSNW (gamer, Joe B. live blog), 106.7 The Fan, PHT, SB Nation DC, Frankovic, KOL, RMNB, DSP, Examiner, Sick Unbelievable, Caps by Puck (pics) and clydeorama (pics).
  • Surprise! Braden Holtby was recalled pre-game and started. [DCEx, WashTimes, WaPo, CSNW... and gave up a looooong one (Puck Daddy, RMNB)]
    
  • Surprise! Joel Rechlicz was recalled pre-game and played.[WashTimes, CSNW]
• Notes and assorted whatnot from yesterday's morning skate:
  • Mike Knuble thinks "it sucks" to be healthy-scratched... and that might've been before he found out he'd be sitting for Rechilcz. [ABC7, CSNW, PHT, with more on this run of scratches for the veteran at Puck Daddy and Nosebleeds]
  • Could next week see Mike Green 's return to the lineup? [CSNW, WaPo]
• Blood is thicker than water. But not ice. Or something. [WashTimes]
• Time to make a move? [WaPo, CSNW]
• The Boss seems to think so. [Ted's Take, WaPo]
• But are they buyers or sellers? [DSP]
• And could Knuble (and maybe another Cap) be a fit with one of his former teams? [CSNNE]
• Centers, centers, centers. [Sick Unbelievable, Hockey Hourly, District Tribune]
• Hey, here's something else they'll probably blame Alex Ovechkin for. [Puck the Media]
• An Evgeny Kuznetsov non-update. [sports.ru]
• Finally, happy 37th birthday to Viktor Kozlov, happy 45th to Calle Johansson (but it is not, sadly, this former Cap's birthday).

Tonight's probable netminders:

Have at it, people.

1021 - The Caps' all-situation PDO¹ under Dale Hunter, via 9.9 shooting (83 for 835) and .922 (940 for 1020) save percentages.

As a point of reference, only three teams have higher PDOs over the course of the 2011-12 campaign so far - the New York Rangers (1030), Boston Bruins (1029) and Vancouver Canucks (1023) - and Hunter's Caps would rank fifth in shooting percentage and sixth in save percentage if compared to the rest of the NHL, season-to-date. The three teams ahead of the Caps have a combined record of 104-45-13; the Caps under Hunter are 16-13-4.

As a further point of reference, Bruce Boudreau's 2011-12 Caps had a PDO of 992 (10.2 Sh%, .890 Sv%) on the heels of a 2010-11 PDO of 1005 (8.5 Sh%, .920 Sv%) and a 2009-10 PDO of 1027 (11.6 Sh%, .910 Sv%).

¹ PDO is 1,000*(S%+SV%), and generally tends to regress to 1,000. For some more thoughts on the metric, head over to Arctic Ice Hockey here, here and here and, for a somewhat contrary view, Hockey Analysis.

Today's probable netminders:

Have at it, people.

Your savory breakfast links:

• No, really. It's National Hockey Card Day. The shoebox next to my desk rejoices. [NHL.com, Facebook, Upper Deck]
• With the Caps off yesterday, we were left to stew over that stunning loss to Winnipeg... [WashTimes (and again)]
  
  • ... and the unlucky broken stick penalty... [WaPo, WashTimes]
  • ... and the unlucky deflection. [WashTimes, WaPo]
  • ... and the fruitless domination of the first 40 minutes. [Arctic Ice Hockey]
• A quick look ahead to tomorrow's game against the Rangers. [NHL.com]
• Power plays are down League-wide and close to home. [Dump 'n Chase, NHL.com]
• Does Mike Knuble have anything left in the tank? Can we really know, given how he's being deployed? [WaPo, CSNW]
• Either way, are his days in D.C. numbered? [CSNW, PHT]
• As for acquisitions that could be a fit here in Washington, Steve Ott would look good in red (but you might want to ask Jason Chimera for his thoughts first). [KOL, with more deadline thoughts at RtR]
• Karl Alzner did his weekly hit with LaVar Arrington and Chad Dukes and talked a bit about that Jets game (and, presumably unintentionally, refers to them as Atlanta). [106.7 The Fan (audio)]
  
• While we're talking 106.7 The Fan, they keep supporting hockey, new media and this site, as evidenced by the fact that they put me on the air with Chad and LaVar Thursday (listen here) and will be putting me on again with Danny Rouhier at 2:00 this afternoon. Support them by giving a listen when you can.
• Pictures from Caps Care Casino Night (a.k.a. photographic evidence that hockey players have atrocious taste in beer). [RMNB, DSP]
• And speaking of support, Defending The Blue Line can always use yours. [Capitals Outsider]
• The Bears prepared to face a familiar, uh, face... [Patriot-News]
• ... then took him down in the only kind of Syracuse loss we like to see around here. [Patriot-News, SHOE]
• Finally, happy 35th birthday, Dwayne Hay (and yes, we got a little over-excited and wished him a happy birthday yesterday, but can you blame us? I mean, Dwayne Hay, y'all!).

.79 - Alexander Semin's points-per-game in 29 games under Dale Hunter, up from .48 under Bruce Boudreau this season (his penalty minutes are way down as well, from over 1.5 per game to under .5). Over the last 23 games, Semin's had 22 points (9 goals, 13 assists), which, pro-rated over a full season, would be the third-best per-game total of his career.

Of course, with Alexander Semin, you should never pro-rate over a full season...

[GameCenter - Ice Tracker - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Play-by-Play - Home TOI - Visitor TOI - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Fenwick/Corsi - Zone Starts - Fenwick Timeline]

With a difficult road ahead and every point gained or left on the table along the way likely to be important, it's critically important that the Capitals win the games they "should win." Reasonable minds might differ, of course, as to what constitutes a "should win" game, but one played at Verizon Center - where the Caps were 19-7-1 - against a Winnipeg team that came into the game 9-16-4 on the road would seem to fit the bill.

If that set-up sounds familiar, it's because it's pretty similar to what we wrote a few weeks back when the Islanders came to town... and promptly shut-out their red-clad hosts.

The Caps seemed determined not to fall victim to the same fate Thursday night, but a failure to capitalize on early chances and an almost literally unbelievable last few minutes of regulation ultimately proved too much to overcome, as they dropped the decision in the shootout by a 3-2 count.

Ten more notes on the game:

• Given that Tomas Vokoun has posted a 1.91 goals against average and .939 save percentage in 14 home games since Dale Hunter took over behind the bench and Ondrej Pavelec came into the game with a 1.99 GAA and .938 SV% against the Caps on the season, a goalie duel was probably to be expected a goalie duel... and that's certainly what was delivered.
  
• One of the big stories headed into this one was the healthy-scratch for the struggling Mike Knuble. Hunter explained that he wanted to get Jay Beagle in the lineup for "more speed." Well, half-way through the second, Beagle took a pass on a good breakout and found himself streaking down the left side in a 2-on-1 with Dennis Wideman. Beagle saucered a gorgeous backhand pass to Wideman, but the blueliner couldn't beat Pavelec. Which is a shame. Because Jay Beagle will never make a prettier pass.
  
• By the end of the second period, the Caps had 24 shots on goal, which is more than they'd had in 16 of Hunter's 31 entire games coming into the night. So there's that. Of course, they couldn't beat Pavelec with a single one of those 24... so there's that, too.
  
• Alex Ovechkin's 10th power-play goal of the season broke the 0-0 tie in the third when he cashed in on an Alexander Semin shot that rebounded off the end boards. Less than two minutes later, Ovechkin would return the favor with a beauty of a feed to Semin on a backdoor cut, who made no mistake and gave the Caps a 2-0 lead with both tallies coming with the extra man (and Wideman assisting on both).
  
• Considering his reputation coming into this season as a high-risk/high-reward offensive defenseman, Caps fans might be surprised at all they've seen from Dmitry Orlov so far in his rookie season. But they got a glimpse of some of that skill early in the third when the young Russian blueliner had a partial breakaway and flashed some sweet stickhandling before having his shot denied by Pavelec. And perhaps some of that high-risk was at play, too, as the Caps were forced to commit a penalty to break up a scoring chance moments later at the other end (though that was clearly more on Orlov's teammates for failing to adequately cover for him on a chance he had to take).
  
• Karl Alzner and John Carlson get high marks for their work against Winnipeg's top line. Reunited and it feels so good? Well, it did until the last few minutes, at least.
  
• 2-man advantages are rare in the NHL. But a three-man advantage? The Jets had that late after a couple of Caps penalties and the decision to pull Pavelec. The Caps killed a bit of the disadvantage, but Evander Kane finally beat Vokoun from atop the crease with 2:15 left in the third... 12 seconds before Dustin Byfuglien beat him from center ice on a shot that deflected off of Alzner to tie the game. Stunning turn of events.
  
• After a five-minute overtime period didn't yield a winner, it was on to the shootout which, like it or not, is how such games are decided these days. Ovechin: goal. Blake Wheeler: goal. Semin: save. Bryan Little: goal. Mathieu Perreault: save. Shootout: garbage.
  
• There were positives to take away from the loss, including an effective power-play, good shot- and scoring-chance generation, and excellent success in the faceoff dot. But it is getting a bit late in the day for moral victories.
  
• Last thought: does anyone miss Eric Fehr? Me neither.
  

And so the Caps have a few days off to think about a brutally hard loss - a game they had to have and a game they did have. Until they didn't.

Continue reading this post »

Tonight's probable netminders:

Have at it, people.

In which Alan May, Kellie Cowan and I talk about what the Caps are doing right lately, the notion that having to fight for a playoff spot is actually a good thing, and the upcoming trade deadline. Dig it.

7 - Caps' high-water mark for the season in terms of wins-minus-regulation-losses. The previous seven times they hit that mark, they lost the next game, but will try again tonight, at home against Winnipeg. The previous seven attempts, and the results:

(H/t brooksengr)

[Recently Caps centerman Nicklas Backstrom spoke with Swedish outlet Gefle Dagblad about his recovery from the concussion that has sidelined him since January 3. A translation of the resulting article appears below, courtesy of our good friend Malin.]

"I don’t know when I will be able to play again, but I hope I will be ready for the playoffs."

It was in the game against Calgary on January 3 that Rene Bourque delivered an elbow to the head of Nicklas Bäckström. The elbowing happened in the neutral zone.

"It was an unnecessary hit. I feel like he could have just skated by me instead."

Bourque was suspended five games for that cowardly cheap shot. Since then Bourque has changed teams and he is now playing for the Montreal Canadiens where he is free to play without any restraints or problems.

Bäckström himself on the other hand has yet to play in a single game since he got hurt. He has now missed 15 games and it is still unclear when he will be able to return to the ice.

"I’m getting better, but it takes time," he says.

Bäckis played a couple of shifts after the hit but was then forced to leave the game early. At first the team called it "precautionary action."

"I had migraine symptoms, and since I have had problems with migraines in the past, we thought at first that it could be something like that. But after a few days I felt that I wasn’t 100% fine."

Bäckström took part in a practice a few days after the Calgary game, but he experienced a setback immediately.

"I didn’t feel well, that's the plain and simple description for it. Otherwise I would have just continued to play."

After that, Washington's medical staff decided to stop him from playing hockey for the time being. His orders now are total rest. Bäckis is being kept under close observation. They take no risks with these types of head injuries.

"Two weeks ago I tried to get on the ice for a practice, but I got off after three minutes. It didn’t work. I just wasn’t ready."

How have you dealt with this time away from hockey?

"It’s tough, for sure. I don’t do much, basically I have spent much of my time on the couch napping and resting. Sometimes I've been at the practice rink, but I try to stay away from it as much as possible. It's so frustrating for me to be there right now."

Bäckis is trying to be positive about the situation.

"I have played four full seasons over here without getting hit like this before. I think I have missed just five games in those years, that’s not too bad. So, I have been lucky and now I was out of luck, that’s the way I look at it."

With Nicklas on the shelf the Capitals are fighting to reach the playoffs. It is a extremely tight race in the Eastern conference, and the team currently sits in third place in the East. They lead the Southeast division with just one point ahead of Florida.

"I follow the games of course, and this season it's been a bit up and down."

On Saturday the Washington Capitals are heading to New York to meet the New York Rangers, and it is also time for this season's father's trip when the players' fathers get to spend some time with their sons. Nicklas's father Anders is in town and he is ready to go on the trip with his son.

"Yes, I will probably go on that trip with the team. I’m really excited about it."

When he can play again remains to be seen.

"It’s a process and it must take the time it takes," says Nicklas.

2 - Number of 40-plus save shutouts by Capitals goaltenders since Clint Malarchuk shutout the Flyers with 42 stops on January 26, 1989; Brent Johnson's 46-save whitewashing of Ottawa (April 1, 2006) and Tomas Vokoun's 42-save goose-egg last night. Also...

2 - Number of days in between Vokoun's last two shutouts, the shortest span by a Caps goalie since Olaf Kolzig blanked Florida and Boston (by identical 1-0 scores) on January 12 and 14, 2002.

And, since you're wondering, Caps netminders have posted shutouts on back-to-back days three times in franchise history: Jim Carey topped the Bruins (2-0) and Flyers (3-0) on March 2 and 3, 1996, nearly a year after holding the Whalers (5-0) and Senators (1-0) scoreless on March 20 and 21, 1995, and Al Jensen blanked the Penguins (1-0) and Devils (2-0) on October 25 and 26, 1983.

Your savory breakfast links:

• Recaps and other assorted musings on last night's win from us, Caps365 video (Hunter, Caps players, Dineen, Panthers players), Vogs, Capitals Voice, NHL.com, WaPo (gamer, blog), WashTimes (gamer, article, blog), CSNW (gamer, blog), Puck Daddy (and again), PHT, SB Nation DC, Peerless, Frankovic, KOL, RMNB, DSP (plus pics), RtR, Examiner, Hockey Hourly, Homer McFanboy and clydeorama (pics), and for the view from the Florida side, On Frozen Pond and Litter Box Cats.
  • Seemingly miraculously, Brooks Laich skated in the morning and then played the game. [CSNW (and again)]
  • Nice cage, Dima. [Caps Outsider]
• Notes and assorted whatnot from yesterday's morning skate:
  • In general. [Caps365 video (Two-Man Advantage, Morning Skate, Vokoun)]
  • Earlier in the day, Coach Hunter called last night a "playoff game." From now on, all games are "playoff games." [Caps365 video, WaPo, CSNW]
  • Laich stuff. [Caps365 video, WaPo, WashTimes]
• On the next couple of months. [Dump 'n Chase]
• Some thoughts on the upcoming trade deadline. [RtR, USA Today]
• A couple of young pivots step up. [Sick, Unbelievable]
• Sad link du jour: the Nicklas Backstrom Concussion Timeline. [WashTimes]
• A half-dozen things to know about Alex Ovechkin's new pad. [Yahoo!]
  
• Kevin Marshall brings some grit to the Bears... [Patriot-News, with notes from Tuesday's practice here]
• ... who will sport these, uh, sweet sweaters (and socks!) for warm-ups on Saturday. [@TheHersheyBears]
• Oh hai there, Evgeny Kuznetsov! Hope you packed your long underwear for Helsinki. [FanShot]
• Rock the binky. [RtR]
• Here's an awesome piece of Washington hockey history... and I do mean history. [Ghosts of DC]
• Finally, happy 45th birthday to Yvon Corriveau and happy 52nd to Hall-of-Famer Dino Ciccarelli (seriously, Bondra and Dino on back-to-back days?).

9 - Consecutive seasons with 21 or more wins for Tomas Vokoun (no one has more). Of course, four of those seasons came when he was playing for the team he'll likely face tonight, the Florida Panthers.

[W]hile the Capitals may appear to be spinning in neutral, it’s thanks only to some percentages that are keeping the team in games now, rather than bad bounces going against the team like they were with Boudreau. With bad percentages at the start of the season, they were on a 93-point pace, good enough for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this season. With Hunter, and good percentages, they’re now on a [90]-point pace. - Cam Charron, Backhand Shelf

It's no secret that the final days and weeks of Bruce Boudreau's tenure in Washington were characterized by poor goaltending (Tomas Vokoun followed up a sensational October with a brutal November that seemed to feature a soft goal or two per night), snake-bitten shooters (a woeful 7.3% shooting percentage over Boudreau's last ten games) and an inability to general inability to see the two for what they were - cold streaks. Frustration mounted (or was given reason to come out of repression), Boudreau threw his hands up, and the situation became untenable.

Enter Dale Hunter.

And exit puck possession.

As Cam Charron details in the post quoted above, Boudreau's Capitals were a great possession team, even to the end of his tenure.

[Brief digression: "possession" here doesn't literally mean time with the puck, but rather it refers to advanced metrics such as Corsi or Fenwick, both of which measure shot generation for and against, as a proxy for possession; they're imperfect, but do the trick. As Charron uses it, a "possession rate of 55.4%" means that the team saw 55.4% of shots - those on goal, blocked and missing the net - go in its favor. In other words, for every 20 or so shots attempted in a game, 11 were directed at the opponents' goal, nine at the Caps' net. Charron further limits his analysis to game-tied, even-strength situations to get a measure of the team's abilities without the influence of "score effect." Alright, back to the post.]

Granted, there wasn't much time when the score was tied when they were getting blasted 7-1, 5-1 and so on, but even over those last five games, they were on the right side of 50% just about any way you'd want to slice the possession numbers.

[OK, another digression: we're using a script written by Vic Ferrari which captures the data we're looking for. Here, for example, are Boudreau's last five games overall. Throw in the word "tied" in the URL and it looks like this. There are other game situations available as well, but note that some of the terms (like "close") don't necessarily have their plain meanings associated with them. For the sake of this post, we're going to stick with score-tied data.]

Under Hunter, the story has been drastically different, as the Caps have been dominated in terms of possession - whereas they had a "possession rate of 55.4%" under Boudreau, that number has dropped to 45.4% under Hunter... which probably marries up with what your eyes have told you, as the Caps have been outshot by an average of 30.8 to 25.0 (so the Caps have registered 44.9% of the shots on goal in their games, 44.8% at even strength), drawn far fewer penalties, and have blocked upwards of 18 shots per night. [For more on that SOG imbalance, check out Neil Greenberg's article over at ESPN.com.] To put that 45.4% in perspective, the Caps' Fenwick (which simply removes blocked shots from the equation) over the same period is 47.1%, which would rank 26th in the League over the course of the season.

So what's at the root of the drop-off? Charron praises Boudreau (who certainly deserves credit for Anaheim's turn-around and all he did here), but let's look at some other possible contributing factors after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Your savory breakfast links:

• Previews of tonight's rather large game against the Kitties from Vogs, NHL.com, WaPo (and more), SB Nation DC, Peerless, RMNB and CRtC, and be sure to check out our SB Nation partner Litter Box Cats for more coverage from the other side of tonight's match-up.
• Notes and assorted whatnot from yesterday out at Kettler:
  • In general. [Caps365 video (Hunter, Halpern, Aucoin, Schultz, Ovechkin), WaPo, WashTimes, 106.7 The Fan]
  • Readying for a Laich-less life. [Dump 'n Chase, NHL.com, WashTimes, WaPo]
  • Mike Green has gone three days without skating, which could indicate a setback in his recovery... or not. [WashTimes]
  • Dmitry Orlov is ok, though, so there's that little bit o' good news. [WashTimes]
• That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Of course, that which does kill you, kills you... [NHL.com, CSNW, Sick Unbelievable]
• ... and that which makes you stronger likely doesn't make you strong enough. [WaPo]
• A little secondary scoring would be nice. Oh, and so would a little primary scoring. [CSNW]
• Buy or sell: by the sell/buy-by deadline, the Caps will bid bye-bye and sell rather than buy? [We Love DC]
• Ruminatin' with a cold one. [Peerless]
• "It seemed like [the Bruins] knew every single thing that the Caps were going to do before the Caps knew what they were going to do." Alan May had his weekly chat with the Sports Reporters. [ESPN 980 (audio)]
• John Carlson and Karl Alzner give you a glimpse of what life is like for a couple of roomies on a roadie. [Caps365 (video)]
• The Verizon Center tops a list of NHL arenas in overall fan experience (but it sure would be nice to see what that experience is like in, say, late-May). [Stadium Journey]
• Ovi and a red dragon? Ovi and a red dragon. [Alex Ovetjkin]
• Time for the captain to captain... [Sick, Unbelievable]
• ... and for the fans to support the boys. [Capital Spirit, RMNB]
• The NHL chapter of Tomas Vokoun's NHL career started some 15 years ago. Pull up a chair and read the tale. [WTOP]
• Czech, please! (Groan.) [CSNW (video)]
• Really sweet tool from our good friend Nate Ewell and company over at College Hockey Inc. that will remind you, for example, that two of tonight's combatants, Mike Knuble and John Madden, were once teammates. [Backhand Shelf]
• Finally, happy 40th birthday to John Slaney and a very happy 44th to the franchise's all-time leader in goals and points (among other things), Peter Bondra (and for a tribute to Bonzai, check out this FanPost from last year).