SB Nation User Blog: JCS_FM

Just how bad are MMA databases?

JCS_FM — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 15:12:20 -0000

More frequently than not, when a new fighter creeps into the rankings, I'll take a close look at our reported professional W-L-D record for the fighter. Verifying the records sounds straightforward, right? Wrong.

Depending on the fighter's background, you have to know where to go in order to verify the numbers. This is quite an art. Let's take a look at an example fighter.

Example 1: Olly Bradstreet

Olly Bradstreet is a fighter out of Utah, who built his career based on fights from the Ultimate Combat Experience. Never heard of them? I'm not surprised, but they have had dozens of shows in Utah, all of which are considered professionally sanctioned (I verified this with the state). MixedMartialArts and CombatRec seem like the second-tier verification, with Sherdog being the first.

Database records as of 6/2/09 11:00AM EST for Bradstreet are as follows:

FightMatrix: 36-11

Sherdog: 34-9

MixedMartialArts:18-11

CombatRec: 29-4

MMAUniverse: 3-1

In this example, MixedMartialArts seems to have all of his losses, but only half of his wins. CombatRec and Sherdog are just missing bouts here and there, while MMAUniverse obviously doesn't care much about the American scene.

Example 2: Jesse Taitano

Jesse (or Jess, not sure) Taitano is a Flyweight from Guam. Local news sources have his record at 7-4-2, but even I cannot locate a couple of those bouts. Taitano recently burst into the World Flyweight scene with draws against Shinichi Kojima, and Yasuhiro Urushitani, while accumulating a 1-1 record between those two draws. There's no real good sources for Pacific Rim results, so fighters from places like Guam are lacking coverage.

Database records as of 6/2/09 11:00AM EST for Taitano are as follows:

Fightmatrix: 5-4-2

Sherdog: 4-3-2

MixedMartialArts: 3-1-1

CombatRec: 1-1-1

MMAUniverse: 1-1-3

OK, now this is pretty sad... considering Taitano is Top 10 in his division. MMAUniverse actually has Taitano drawing twice against Kojima in the same night. Interesting.

Although we're not perfect, we like to think our database is one of the best, if not the best out there. However, the MMA scene as a whole has a lot of work to do on keeping track of professional fighters' records.

Originally posted on FightMatrix: http://www.fightmatrix.com/

FightMatrix: Ranking the TUF Season 9 Welterweights

JCS_FM — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 22:59:57 -0000

All fighters are ranked using their FightMatrix rating points as of 4/6/09. Some of the bout histories for these obscure fighters are incomplete, especially those from the UK, but we decided to use the information that we have to provide a ranking of said fighters. There is some "grouping" of closely rated fighters, so we are presenting them in tiers.

Total Points

251 - 156

The Best of the Bunch

1. Che Mills

2. Kevin Knabjian

3. Mark Miller

Worth Keeping an Eye On

4. Jason Pierce

5. Damarques Johnson

Rounding Out the Top 10

6. Tommy Maguire

7. Ray Elbe

8. James Wilks

9. Alex Reid

10. Nicholas Osipczak

Here for the Ride

11. Dean Amasinger

12. Ryan Biglar

13. Christian Fulgium

The Unranked

Kiel Reid, David Falkner, James Bateman

Ranking the TUF Season 9 Welterweights

FightMatrix: Ranking the TUF Season 9 Lightweights

JCS_FM — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 22:59:27 -0000

All fighters are ranked using their FightMatrix rating points as of 4/6/09. Some of the bout histories for these obscure fighters are incomplete, especially those from the UK, but we decided to use the information that we have to provide a ranking of said fighters. There is some “grouping” of closely rated fighters, so we are presenting them in tiers.

Total Points

238 - 206

The Best of the Bunch

1. Jason Dent

2. Jeff Lawson

Worth Keeping an Eye On

3. Ross Pearson

4. Andre Winner

The Next Three

5. Josh Souder

6. Richie Whitson

7. Santino Defranco

On the Outside Looking In

8. Paul Bird

9. Waylon Lowe

10. Martin Stapleton

11. AJ Wenn

12. Cameron Dollar

Just Good Enough for a Rating

13. Gary Kelly

14. James Bryant

15. Tom Hayden

The Unranked

Dan James

Ranking the TUF Season 9 Lightweights

The Rise and Fall of Drew Fickett

JCS_FM — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 19:56:39 -0000

Promoted to the front page from the FanPosts by Luke Thomas.

We've seen fighters decline tremendously in recent years, but the bottom has really fallen out of Drew Fickett's FightMatrix rating. Below, you'll find a graph of how Fickett's rating hit an all-time high in early 2008, and has since dropped into journeyman status. On January 30th, Fickett was knocked out by Ferrid Kheder to cap off a 1-3 record in his last four fights.

What makes this drop even worse, is that these values were not time adjusted. With FightMatrix ratings, the value of a point has gotten increasingly lower through time as competition thickens.

Original article link.

A beats B, B beats C, how often does A beat C?

JCS_FM — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:34:14 -0000

It's an interesting subject that probably comes up more in boxing than in MMA, but it's definitely more intriguing in the MMA world due to the large variance in styles. I ran the analysis with all MMA bouts that we have on record (over 68,000).

So how often does A beat C? First, let's acknowledge the potential issues in analyzing this statistic.

One problem is that sometimes these A/B, B/C, and A/C bouts take place multiple times, with varying results. Another problem lies in the timing of said bouts. So I laid out some guidelines.

A/B and B/C must both take place before A/C. This is an obvious one.
The most recent A/B and B/C results before A/C are acknowledged. In other words, if A beat B five years before A/C, but A lost to B three months ago in their most recent bout before A/C, then this chain won't be included in the analysis.
If multiple A/C results are available and all guidelines are met, then all A/Cs will be counted.

In the end, A prevailed over C at a 71% success rate (2988 of 4210).

When all three bouts occur within a 3 year window, the success rate improves to 72.3% (2144 of 2967).

Within a 2 year window, 73% (1590 of 2179).

18 months, 74.2% (1211 of 1633).

12 months, 75.2% (732 of 974).

9 months, 77.5% (488 of 630).

6 months, 80.9% (262 of 324).

3 months, 85.6% (77 of 90).

Sample Analysis: Cheick Kongo

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Andre Tete (B) on 6/10/2001
Andre Tete (B) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/1/2002
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/11/2005

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Christian Wellisch (B) on 8/26/2006
Christian Wellisch (B) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 4/1/2006
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 8/9/2008

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Mirko Filipovic (B) on 9/8/2007
Mirko Filipovic (B) beat Heath Herring (C) on 6/8/2003
Cheick Kongo (A) failed to beat Heath Herring (C) on 3/1/2008

Thanks to ltokuda, one of our readers, for the idea!

A FightMatrix original post

FightMatrix Rematch Statistics

JCS_FM — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 23:29:59 -0000

Just figured I would fill you guys in on some statistics I researched today...

Our FightMatrix database shows the following rematch-related statistics:

2,307 bouts have taken place where the fighters have fought at least once previous.
196 bouts where fighters have fought at least twice previous.... and 24 bouts, at least three times previous.
Two pairs of fighters have fought each other six times! (Travis Fulton & Rory Prazak, Brian Robinson & Nate Kopel)

In instances where fighters meet in their second encounter, the same winner has prevailed only 64.5% of the time. If the first fight ended in a knockout or submission, this number increases to 67.7%. These statistics prove that MMA is a very volatile sport compared to boxing, where the percentage of repeat winners after a knockout in the first bout since 1985 is almost 90% (I researched this myself).

Not many rematches have taken place after the first bout ended in disqualification. In fact, its very rare, as we only have record of 19 said rematches. The previous winner won 9 out of these 19.

How about when a fighter wins the first two matches by KO or TKO, and then rematches the loser for a third time? In other words, does Quinton stand a chance on Saturday? The dataset is extremely small, but the statistics show that the KO/TKO winner of the first two bouts, will win the third bout 89% of the time.

Original Post: http://www.fightmatrix.com/2008/12/25/mma-fighters-rematch-a-lot/