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Despite mounting uncertainty surrounding the immediate financial future of Florida Miami Marlins, the organization should lock up their slugging right fielder, Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton.  To begin 2012, the Marlins will be entering a new stadium without any degree of certainty in their projected box office receipts. Rather than spend hordes of money in free agency, the Marlins should reaffirm their commitment to their cyclical fire sale strategy. Even with such concerns looming, the Marlins should make it a priority secure Stanton's services, until it's too late.

Promises of a cash infusion to the roster have trickled in of late, likely quite closely tied to ownerships desire to fill their new publically funded stadium. While Jeffrey Loria spending at-will seems farfetched,  it's conceivable that  the Marlins could dive into the deep end of free agent pool. Though, as exciting as it is to rush to a new ballpark - especially one funded with $347 million in taxes that could have been used to  fix numerous issues in Dade-Miami County - it's hard to imagine that the Loria is confident in his capacity to maintain similar ticket receipts in the future given the organization's consistent inability to draw fans during its brief lifespan.[1]. While not a comparable situation, Loria must be haunted by the words of Stu Sternberg following the Tampa Bay Rays inability to sell-out playoff games.

Even if Marlins are able to uncharacteristically draw three million fans in 2012, it's risky to assume such an attendance rate would continue. Bolstering the roster with multi-year contracts will only insure a lack of flexibility, not consistent revenue.[2]. Thus, the Marlins should continue to use a modified version of fire sale model, keep their obligations reasonably low until some consistent trend of ticket sales is discerned. [3].

If wise, Larry Beinfest will make extending Mike Stanton a priority, offering a deal that trades security for a several free agent years before the right fielder competes his transformation from raw talent to superstar. So what would a fair deal be and how do we figure that out?

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Among yesterday's hysterics following Mariano Rivera closing his 602 game, an article was penned by ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews stating that the Yankee closer was the greatest Yankee of this generation. He muses,

"I realize that many will lean toward Derek Jeter...as the greatest Yankee of our era...And it is pretty much impossible to quantify the relative worth of a closer versus a shortstop..."

Impossible? Hardly. Difficult? Absolutely.

Though, it certainly isn't as simple as looking at both Jeter and Rivera's career Wins Above Replacement Player.  Evaluating relief pitchers has given WAR(P) a significantly harder than it has with position players. For those who are unaware, in addition to summarizing a player's total contributions to their team in one statistic, Wins Above Replacement (WAR or WARP) removes the context said contribution and focus solely on what an individual player controls and accomplishes.

But, what is a relief pitcher without the surrounding context of the game? The modern closer, while just a name for a misused relief pitcher, derives much of his value from coming in high leverage situations. If one was to attempt remove the context, as sabrmetrics does with its various WAR constructs for every other position, she wouldn't be getting an accurate representation of a closer's value.

The above discussion begs the question, how much credit should one give to relief pitchers for context they had no part in creating?

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Advanced fielding metrics are often the topic of heated debate in all baseball circles. Most of the discourse surrounding these statistics has to do with the accuracy of the subjective data used. The phrase, "garbage in, garbage out" has been uttered on more than a few occasions. Though, for a second, let us assume the data's precision and discuss what these metrics tell us.

Each statistic conveys information. As fans and analysts it is our duty to choose which metric can be utilized to fit our needs.

For instance, let us look at Runs Batted In. RBI is a descriptive statistic. It clearly tells the reader the amount of times a runner has crossed home during and following a hitter's plate appearances. As you know, RBI has few uses because it lacks context. Failing to account and neutralize for the amount of RBI opportunities one has is just one problem with the old school metric.

RBI clearly is not a predictive statistic. A predictive statistic is one that correlates highly from year to year.[1]. What a player accomplishes in year X, we should expect him to accomplish in year X+1. As an example, look at xFIP. xFIP does not tell us what happened in the current year - how a pitcher was able to prevent runs - but rather tells us how one should have been able to prevent runs by looking at one's strikeouts, walks, while assuming a league average homerun rate. The assumed home run rate isn't even something that actually happened. 

Given nature of predictive statistics, many look to these constructs to asses a player's true talent level.

A problem with subjective data fielding metrics is that fans and analysts alike look at them and think true talent level. Viewing fielding metrics through a true talent level lens, it is understandable one has trouble reconciling Jacoby Ellsbury's wildly fluctuating defensive statistical performance. [2].

Each opportunity for a player's On Base Percentage is marked by a plate appearance. It's safe to say that outside of the level of competition and park factors, all plate appearances are created equal. Get on base, or make an out. Simple. Clear. [3].

Often it is overlooked that the opportunities that are used for advanced fielding are not as clear. Again, forget the accuracy of the data employed and consider that two right fielders can be hit 100 fly balls, yet both have had a vast different amount of opportunities. Why? Because each fly ball - even if categorized to perfection - is different. In the given scenario, one right fielder's defensive statistical performance can be stifled by a lack of difficult opportunities while another's can be bolstered by a high volume of difficult plays.

Because the pool of fielders can have a wide array of opportunities causing fluctuating outcomes year-to-year, subjective fielding metrics are descriptive statistics, like RBI, and do not give the reader an idea of a fielder's true talent level. Conceptually, these statistics are not as useless as RBI. They tell the reader what happened using complex linear weights.[4]. But, don't fret when your perception is contradicted by these metrics. The disconnect is created, in part, by the variance in the difficultly of opportunities each fielder faces.

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A few weekends ago, I was lucky enough to catch a Marlins' broadcast while vacationing in the Sunshine state. Typically, I make an effort to drown out television analysts but outside of turning off the television,  I couldn't avoid the large chart displayed. The Marlins' production team was attempting to illustrate how valuable Mets' MVP candidate Jose Reyes was by showing him atop the NL Wins Above Replacement (WAR) leaderboard. While some may see this graphic as progress for  baseball geeks everywhere, I have to disagree.

Wins Above Replacement is a fantastic construct. If you're visiting Beyond the Box score you probably know that. But, you also know that it comes in various forms across the internet, and each is not perfect. [1]. We know that. But, Michael Jong and I were probably the only two of the eleven total viewers who had anyway idea what a Win Above Replacement is. [2]. 

Look, WAR is shiny. It puts a ton of information into one number. But, that number is meaningless to one who does not understand the various components or does not have an inkling of how they are calculated. [3]. Why start with SABR501?[4].

Before geeks can thrust Runs Created upon the average fan, we need them to embrace the virtues of OBP. Understand the importance of every out. Without this basic foundation, the main stream media's use of WAR may be met with something worse than fear and confusion.

Misuse.

JD Sussman is full time law student and co-founder of Bullpen Banter. He can be reached at JDSussman@bullpenbanter.com or via twitter.

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Here are the rules we followed...

• If a player has thrown a MLB pitch or had a MLB plate appearance they are disqualified.
• All players from the 2011 Draft - signed or unsigned - were available to be selected regardless of signing speculation.
• While none made the list, all players from the 2011 July 2nd deadline were eligible.

We hope you enjoy! And if you disagree, tell us why!

Individual Lists:

• Al Skorupa
• JD Sussman
• Jeff Reese
• Steve Fiorindo

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One of the best perks of living in New York is the constant comedy that WFAN radio callers provide. Some New Yorkers live to call the station and propose ridiculous trades in hopes that their favorite team can obtain the best talent in the league for pennies on the dollar. This uniformed breed - commonly known as Yankee fans - can concoct mind-numbing  scenarios. So, when I accidentally tuned in and heard several variations of Ubaldo Jimenez to the Yankees, I dismissed it out of hand. But, yesterday I read a John Heyman report that immediately gave this rumor far more creditably than the typical dreck that pollutes New York's airwaves.

While it is fashionable to suggest that the Yankees could acquire Ubaldo Jimenez for package centered around top prospect Jesus Montero, however it seems the "catcher" will not be enough. Heyman reports that GM Dan O'Dowd is looking package  comparable to the storied Hershel Walker trade that took place in the NFL between the Vikings and the Cowboys. The Vikings traded 5 players and 6 draft picks for the running back and the fan base still cringes at the thought of "The Great Train Robbery".

Dementia would have to set in before Brian Cashman seriously considered offering a comparable package, but obviously any package must exceed Ubaldo's value to the his current club.

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If you frequent this site and happen to be awake at 7:30am when my articles are typically posted, you may already be aware that the  treatment of amateur athletes is one of the only off the field topics which I truly care about. A major misconception about allowing teams to acquire amateur talent on the open market is that the large markets will dominate the market solely because the market is free of restrictions.

For those who are unaware, July 2nd is the date that 16 year old International Free Agents (IFA) are eligible to  be signed by any team.  Any player, with any team. An open market.

Of course, if teams sole aim was to acquire amateur talent the misconception about large market dominance would likely not be a misconception at all. The amount of money Yankees would invest into amateur talent would dwarf even their cross town rival's hefty payroll. However, teams have a multitude of priorities that require them to allocate resources to various needs - player retention, pre-arbitration raises, super-two and fourth, fifth, and sixth year arbitration awards, free agents, coaches, etc. etc.. Those needs evolve annually due to a general manager's philosophical preferences and a team's competitiveness.

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Within a blink of an eye the 2011 draft will be upon us. Acclaimed as an extremely talented draft, there are many intriguing amateur ball players to discuss. Yet, one question stands out. Anthony Rendon or Gerrit  Cole?

Seattle Mariners General Manger Jack Zduriencik stands in an enviable position, he doesn't have to make one of the hardest draft decisions in recent memory. That task falls to Pirates GM Neil Huntington.

What name should the Commissioner call for the Pirates come June? Research suggests Rendon, however some notable scouts and prospectors disagree.

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