As we know, hindsight is 20/20.  With a little over a month gone in the 2009 season, Reds' leftfielders are OPSing a paltry .625, good for 28th out of 30 MLB teams.  The Chicago White Sox's right-handed bat who we were rumored to have been considering trading Homer Bailey for is OPSing .891 with 7 HRs.  I can't run the numbers like many on this site can, but eyeballing it, I'd say that we'd have at least 2 more wins with Dye instead of C-Dick/McDonald/Cherry/Nix starting in left field.

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Now that the Super Bowl is over, we can get back to baseball... except that for us Reds fans, we likely won't have any actual news to discuss - it'll mainly be longing for a decent SS or another good outfielder.

As such, I propose a game.  I know I'm pirating the game off an SB blog that I follow, though I'm not sure if it is this one or another one.  However, since I am no longer in school, I'm not naming my source!

It goes like this, I propose an over/under.  The first responder gives his/her opinion, and proposes his/her own over/under.  It could be anything from player production and statistics, # pitchers Dusty sends to the DL, attendence, other teams' wins, etc.  If you feel so inclined, give a little reason for your opinion.

So, batting leadoff is the following over/under:

Jay Bruce, 30 HR's.

When the Reds were designing GABP, baseball was in the middle of the 'steroids' era, where 'Chicks dig the long ball.'  Consequently, the original drawings had a short right-field fence, likely designed with the intention of maximizing the values of star left-handed hitters Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn.  After this idea was nixed by MLB's front office, GABP was redesigned to have short fences all around.  Ever since, GABP has given up at or near to the top of HR's each year.

I tihnk the makeup of our team is wrong for this ballpark.  The Philadelphia Phillies proved last year that you can win in a HR-friendly ballpark.  Here's the type of team that would succeed at GABP, and how you can build that team on a budget.

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Supply and demand - any economist will tell you that in a free market, this is what determines a price.  As the government has not yet taken over MLB, we have a free agency free market.  As a player in this market, I'd sure like to be any position other than an outfielder. 

Supply Side:

Free agents with OPS > .800 include: Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, Raul Ibanez, Cliff Floyd, Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, Rocco Baldelli (in 28 games), Jerry Hairston, and Casey Blake (though he'll likely play 3rd).

Granted, all of these players have flaws, ranging from Manny being Manny, low BA's lots of K's and bad defense for Burrell and Dunn, age with Ibanez and Floyd, injury issues with Bradley and Baldelli, and, is Hairston really on this list?  Really?

Of the above free agents, only Ramirez, Bradley, Ibanez, and Blake were offered arbitration, meaning the 'only' cost of a free agent is money.  This means that teams like the Reds who should value draft picks won't lose one from signing most of these free agents.

Potential trade targets: Names that have popped up as potentially being available for trade include Jermaine Dye, Brian Giles, Xavier Nady, Magglio Ordonez, and one of the St. Louis outfielders (Ankiel and Ludwick).

From the trade targets, we have a team that looks like they'll suck next year (Padres), a team that looks like it's in sell-off mode (White Sox), a team where jobs are being lost like crazy (Tigers), a team that wants to get a young outfielder up (Cards), and a team with excess outfielders (Yankees).  And I'm sure there are many more available outfielders than those I mentioned.

Demand Side:

We've read numerous sportswriters say that they're seeing the market affecting free agent salaries due to lower projected revenues from ticket sales and corporate sponsorships.  Even the Yankees, moving into their goldmine of a park, seem to be affected (Ken Rosenthal brings up the fact that the Mets, Yankees, Jets, and Giants all move into a new ballpark in the coming 20 months).  Other teams will take a double hit, due to reduced ticket sales and reduced revenue sharing from the Yankees as the Yankees can deduct operating costs of the new ballpark from local revenue, meaning less $$ in the revenue sharing pool from its biggest contributor.

The current market conditions seem to be making teams hesitant not only to sign free agents, but to offer arbitration to their own free agents who look likely to get multi-year deals (an aside, that Dunn trade looks like a steal now, doesn't it?).  Additionally, teams are looking at their own payroll and financial flexibility, and seem to be favoring younger (i.e. less expensive) players.  This, too, lowers demand for the middle-age and older free agents.

Teams appear to be wanting to control costs and unload expensive ballplayers.  Additionally, teams are valuing younger players more.  From the trades of Matt Holliday and Nick Swisher, it appears that even trading for an outfielder will cost less in terms of prospects than it would have in other offseasons.

The end result will be depressed player costs for the corner outfielders, both via trade and via free agency.  This is not going to be the case for many other positions - SS, 2B, CF, C, SP - where there seems to either be a dearth of quality players available, or a never-ending need for quality players (SP).

Should the Reds pull the trigger on one of the bigger-names available?

This is where the GM gets paid to do his job.  I'm a firm believer that in baseball, one player does not make a huge difference.  We're looking for a corner outfielder to replace Adam Dunn, whose annual 40 HR, 100 BB, 100 RBI is not overlooked here as it is on certain local radio stations.

If adding one outfielder is all we do, are we basically back at the team we had in the middle of last year?  Do we end up just hoping Cueto and Harang improve on last year's numbers and that Volquez's 2008 was no fluke?  We've been there and done that - see 2008, where we signed 1 big-name player who came in and did fix the problem the team had the prior year, but didn't get us much closer to contention.

I don't like the sign 1 player and hope the rest improve strategy.  My opinion is that if we can only add a corner outfielder, we better improve the team somewhere else (shortstop, catcher, 3B defense, starting pitching depth).  Otherwise, I'll pass - despite a favorable buyers market..

MLB posted the tentative 2009 schedule - the A's will be hoping to repeat last night's feat of beating John Lackey and the Angels, not in Oakland, but in Anaheim.  The A's open in Anaheim and close with the Angels in Oakland.  April will be brutal if the team is trying to find itself:

• 4 at Anaheim
• 3 Seattle, 3 Boston
• 3 at Toronto, 3 at Yankees
• 3 Tampa Bay
• 3 at Texas

That said, we have a wonderful interleague schedule as the A's draw the NL West.  Unfortunately, the rest of the AL West draws the NL West (though the Rangers get Houston as their rival game).

• 3 vs Arizona
• 3 at SF, 3 at LA, 3 at SD
• 3 vs Colorado, 3 vs SF

July is also a brutal month:

• 1 vs Detroit
• 3 at Cleveland, 3 at Boston, 3 at TB
• 4 vs Angels, 3 vs. Twins
• 3 at Yankees, 4 at Boston

If the A's can survive April that will be a positive sign and should set them up to thrive against the NL.  If we're still in a contending position through July, Beane would have good reason to make trades to improve the club.

There are a lot of question marks for the 2009 team - we should quickly get answers in April!

See schedule here

As an Oakland A’s and Cincinnati Reds fan, I often wonder what the Reds would be like if they had Billy Beane running the team.  If BB had taken over after last season, I can see him realizing that the team was more than 1-2 players away from contending and that the minor league system needed some additional strength.  Here’s what I can picture happening:

• Harang to Arizona for a similar haul as he got for Haren (includes Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, who are on the MLB team, and Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham).
• Arroyo to another team for prospects similar to those obtained by Blanton (includes Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and  Matthew Spencer)
• Griffey to another team for a minor prospect
• Never invited Corey Patterson within 100 miles of Cincinnati
• Trade Dunn near the trading deadline and called up Jay Bruce
• Kept Josh Hamilton – I just don’t think he would have traded away such an enormous talent.   The only way Volquez would be a Red would be if the Rangers would have taken Joey Votto for him.
• A Josh Fogg-ish pitcher would be in the rotation, but so would Smith, Eveland, Cueto, and Thompson/Bailey.
• Not signing Francisco Cordero.
• All in all, reducing the club’s payroll significantly, leaving more room for large bonuses for draft picks and Latin ballplayers, and giving flexibility going into next offseason.

The thing I love about BB is that he makes pre-emptive moves.  The A’s weren’t going to win this year without a couple big-name free-agent signings, which just weren’t available last offseason.  So, BB, knowing the weakness of A’s farm system, acted to shore it up with short and long-term solutions.  Yes, Aaron Harang is a stud, 2008 injury notwithstanding, but so are the 6 players Oakland got for Dan Haren, including the 2 whose MLB pitching performances are not that far behind Haren’s.

The thing that frustrates me about Reds’ management is that they seem to be stuck between wanting to win now (“Going for it”) and building for the future.  As Billy Beane shows us, there is a way to succeed at doing both.

Has Aaron Harang ever had higher value than he has right now?  What about Brandon Phillips?  Harang has pitched over 230 innings each of the past two years and is averaging 7 innings per start this year.  Phillips provides gold-glover caliber defense, power, and speed while playing at a traditionally weak offensive position.  Both are signed to reasonable long-term deals.  They are the perfect players to build a team around.  So why even consider trading them?

Let's look at the team as a whole.  The Reds have 4 solid young pitchers including Harang and  if Bailey is included in the group.  They have a core of young position players including Phillips, Votto, Bruce, EdE, and Kepp who could be the start to a good team.  But there are major issues with this team.

The way the Reds are going, you have to assume we'll see the mid-summer fire sale of Dunn, Griffey, Weathers, Hatteburg, Bako, and maybe others.  I'd guess those players as a whole will net 2-3 servicable players and a couple low-level, low-rated prospects.  So we're left with holes in the outfield, at catcher, and at a starter.  Could Phillips be turned into a decent outfielder and a starter?  Could Harang be turned into a ML-ready starter, a young prospect, and a couple decent position prospects? 

I don't think the Reds have the guts to make that type of move, but it's time to at least explore the possibilities.  This is a team that needs to chart a course and stick to it, or we'll just keep going in circles.

I don't know if I fully believe this, but I can see some merit.  A few years ago, Ryan Howard was one of the hottest minor league prospects.  The Phillies kept him in the minors an extra year and a half - he was 26 in his first full major league season.  I think their philosophy with him (other than having Jim Thome blocking him) was that they would have more years of Howard's prime by keeping him in the minors.

Fast forward to our situation.  With the number of highly-regarded minor-league prospects we have, keeping them down 1/2 a season longer will control costs and allow the Reds to control them during more of their 'peak' years.  With the arbitration salaries spinning out of control (see Howard = $10M!!!), it becomes even more important to have guys for as much of their peak years as possible.

Howard was the one I thought of with a team keeping a top minor leaguer down - are there any other examples anyone can think of?  Is it worth keeping a guy down a half or full season to be able to have him for more of his prime?

My ideas coming into the offseason for what the Reds should do were a lot different than what has actually been done.  I hold out hope of a Blanton for Cueto+3 other non-Bailey/Bruce/Votto minor leaguers deal, but I'm at the point where I think we're basically set for the season.  While I'm comfortable with what's been done, here's what my ideal (and, to me, realistic) offseason would've brought us:

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I'm currently getting by on the hypothesis that the A's are only 2 'happenings' away from a WS title: (1) signing Barry Bonds, and (2) a healthy team.  I'm going to tackle the first issue in this diary by looking at what the A's numbers 'with Bonds' and 'without Bonds' would've been in 2007.  I've taken out Mike Piazza's 2007 numbers as well as the fill-in outfielders, including Langerhans, Bocachica, Thompson, Kielty, Putnum, and Davanon.  I'm obviously replacing some of our weaker links with Bonds, so the results will be overstated, but take a look just for fun.

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