I'll Have Another positioned himself for a run at history in the Belmont Stakes three weeks from now with a thrilling stretch drive victory over Bodemeister in today's 137th running of the Preakness. I'll Have Another stalked three lengths back of somewhat pedestrian fractions that most would have thought to suit the front-running style of Bodemeister. Creative Cause ran most of the way off Bodemeister's hip before yielding to I'll Have Another's impressive surge and held third. Zetterholm completed the superfecta. The Pimlico track replay, which lacks Larry Colmus' spine-tingling call, follows the jump. Prices also.

Let me just say...."Let's Go I'll Have Another." Go win that that Triple Crown.

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My real job dictates that I drive quite a bit to see customers of my business, and thankfully, XM Radio came along a few years and shortened how long those trips feel. Among the many great channels available, channel 209, for those of you who don't subscribe, is one dedicated to horse racing, for which, Steve Byk and Dave Johnson both do shows. Last Saturday, Johnson had Bob Baffert on as I drove back after attending Keenland's closing the day before, and as Baffert spoke he mentioned the word "brilliancy." It jogged my memory. I recalled reading, a few years back, an article that Dean Arnold had written for NTRA.com that spoke to the same issue. What is "brilliancy" in a horse? Well, it is the ability to crush a field as a youngster that points toward success in the big 3-year old races. And it turns out, that it has quite often proved itself in the recent history of the Kentucky Derby.

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One of the reasons that I love the Kentucky Derby is that in recent years it has become the kind of race that I vigorously search for in my everyday handicapping process: that is, a race, especially a route, that has the makings of a meltdown. Every year now, it seems, we are confronted with a Derby puzzle that includes a couple, if not several, horses who are speedball types, who are used to winning from a lead possessed at the first call, and who will find themselves up against a pace scenario in the Derby that does not favor their running style.

No one has led a Derby every step of the way since War Emblem in 2002, and with this year's field including the BRIS Speed Point blazers Bodemeister (E8), Hansen (E8), Trinniberg (E8), Gemologist (E/P7), and I'll Have Another (E/P7), Kentucky Derby 138 would appear to be a race that sets up for a closer. With an eye toward that, let's take a look at how every horse in the field has fared in his three most recent starts with an above-par pace.

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Saturday's Grade 1 Wood Memorial features a clash of Alpha, winner of the Gotham and the Count Fleet at Aqueduct this winter/spring, and Gemologist, the undefeated son of Tiznow, who desperately needs significant graded stakes earnings to ensure a spot in the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Additionally, the son of a former Kentucky Derby winner, Street Life, will look to punch his ticket to Louisville for the first Saturday in May. The Wood Memorial is scheduled to go to post at 5:15pm Eastern/2:15pm Pacific, and will be televised on NBC.

Let's take a look at the field for the Wood Memorial.

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The poll above is a creation of mine. I've been tinkering with it over the last few years. The reason I call it the Gambler's Poll is that I arrive at each team's point total by factoring together the several statistical elements that I favor most in college handicapping. Among them are yards-per-point differential, yards-per-play differential, and Sagarin schedule strength. Each category is weighted, with more emphasis being placed on yards per point differential and schedule strength. Unlike the purpose of the BCS poll, which is to figure out a 1 vs. 2 matchup (note mine would have been different!), this poll is meant to be a quick guide for the gambler. The higher ranked team in a bowl matchup should not only win, but cover, so long as the line isn't egregiously out of whack. You will note that only 30 teams are ranked. That is because in the past, matchups involving teams lower than 30th have not done well against the spread.

I wish I had the time to put this poll together each week, but it is overly time consuming since the metrics I use (other than Sagarin) are not posted for me anywhere. My wife and I compile them each week. Please remember that I post this only for fun. In no way am I, or The Smoking Musket, encouraging anyone to gamble.

After Bowl Season, I'll post a wrap-up to see how the poll does this year. It has never been worse than 59% against the spread. Incidentally, Clemson was 53rd in the poll, so confidence is high for the Orange Bowl! Let's Go Mountaineers!

So much for my belief that we would be a double-digit favorite this Thursday.  Sagarin's Predictor number had us as a 1-point favorite, but Vegas has mitigated that and believes the game is even.  The good news, as you can see, is that Cincinnati is a pretty much a double-digit favorite as hosts for Connecticut.  Assuming that Cincy has a 77 percent chance of winning based on their 10-point favoritism, and our even-money chance vs. South Florida on the road, I would place our statistical chances for a BCS trip at 61.5 percent (.77 x .50 =.385 - 1.00 = -61.5), or to put it in familiar horse-racing terms, roughly 3-5, which is pretty strong if you are talking horses, and hopefully college football teams.

I am, however, a little dismayed that more than 85 percent of the money is on the favorites in both of the outcomes that we need.  I hate being against the house...

Go Bearcats!  Go Mountaineers!

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

In the last few weeks, there have been some rather harsh critics of the West Virginia Defensive Coordinator Jeff Casteel.  Several fans have been down on the man for an under-performing defense that at times has seemed unable to get off the field.

But as I sit here contemplating just how much the defense had to overcome in tonight's dramatic 21-20 win over our arch-rival, the Pitt Panthers, I don't think a clearer statement can be made than this:  Jeff Casteel is one of the nation's best at in-game adjustment, and it made all the difference tonight.

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The single greatest weekend of the annual racing calendar is upon us, so in the interest of stewardship, I thought I would share with each of you some templates I've honed over the years for playing the superfecta.  There is probably no better time to swing for the fences than on Breeders' Cup 2011 day, precisely because the horses involved are just so good, and the tote board becomes your friend because of that.  The difference between a 4-1 favorite and a 30-1 longshot may be minimal in terms of whether or not either of those horses can actually win, but because the tote board is always in statistical balance, great value can be found in just about every race.  Keying one of those 30-1 horses and having him hit one of the four holes can result in boxcar payoffs.

Here are the templates.  The document is presented as a screenshot since SBNation's editor doesn't play well with tables.  "Single" and "All" are self-explanatory, while "2H" or "3H" indicate two or three horses that you are keying to get into one of the holes.  Good luck, and may this year's Breeder's Cup be a great one for each of you!

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Long ago, in the early 90's, I was a sportswriter.  And a gambler.  My sports writing aided my efforts in gambling because I had access to all kinds of statistics that the average person didn't.  I could get on the agate wire and print out up-to-the-minute rankings that mattered - chief among them, rush offense, rush defense, third down conversion rates, and schedule strength.  Back then, I didn't need much more than those numbers to do very well in the college game. Because after about game four, some things don't change.  A team that cannot defend the run will continue not to do so, because there are no free agents to sign.  Winning a bet usually required little else than hawk-eyeing the bottom of the rush defense category and waiting for them to line up against a good rushing team with a spread under 10.

Now, it isn't as easy, because everyone has access to these stats.  They are easily found at ESPN, CBSsports, hell, at the NCAA's very own site.  So, astute gamblers have had to evolve, to look beyond the simplicity of basic numbers to statistics that are far more esoteric.  For years now, I have placed a great emphasis on just a few stats:  yards per play, yards per play allowed, yards per point, yards per point allowed, yards per pass attempt, and schedule strength.  Let's take a look at Saturday night's matchup using these numbers.

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It's been a while since our last reader mailbag, but when you've got  #2 coming into your place, and it is the first-ever College Gameday as a part of the festivities, you know some amusements have been coming in via email. Let's get straight to them!  And be sure to add any of yours in the comments...

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Now, I realize that most of our fans would rather see our beloved West Virginia Mountaineers go to Southeastern Conference (not likely now, it appears), if that becomes a possibility, but the lead on SportsCenter's crawl:  "Oklahoma and Texas cleared by presidents to pursue realignment options" got me thinking.  "Realignment options" doesn't necessarily scream Pac-12, does it?  Could rumors of the Big East's eminent demise still yet be greatly exaggerated?  Might it actually be the first conference to get to the Super Conference status of 16?

Let's suppose that Big East commissioner John Marinatto isn't the dunce we all think he might be (and I am not saying that he is one, because he kind of looks, you know, mobbed up...which, incidentally, is why I write under a pseudonym).  Let's suppose that he really is the successor that Mike Tranghese thought he would be and right now he is working the phones.

Yes, the Big East has lost Pitt and original conference member Syracuse.  So seven schools remain, including poor TCU, the newbie currently harboring some serious buyer's remorse.  Rumors are rampant that Rutgers and UConn are almost gone as well, which is why Marinatto is working so hard, so fast, why his ears are hot from so much phone contact.  He has been on the phone all day, and deep into the night with the principals at Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.  John is begging them, pleading with them, to at least consider this.

Here is what he's been saying:  "Join the Big East.  We'll re-brand as The All-American Conference, or something less directional.  You pick the name Texas.  Call it the Longhorn Conference, if you wish.  But adding you four would put us at 11.  The Big 12 will be gone.  If we add, say Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State and Baylor, we would be at 16 teams with divisions that make more sense than they would if you join the Pac-12.  Your travel costs would be substantially lower, because the breakdown by geography would be easy.  And it would be a great conference, not just in football, but basketball, AND baseball, too.  Think about it. 

A West division comprised of Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.  An East Division of West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, UConn, Rutgers, South Florida, Iowa State, and Missouri.  Yes, this conference has taken a hit, but it can certainly rise from the ashes and maybe even be better than it was before if you four would just come our way and open that door.  And Texas, we are more than happy to let you take whatever you want from that Longhorn Network."

I don't know about you guys, but that is a situation I could live with, and maybe one that makes more fiscal and competitive sense than a move the SEC.  If Tranghese were still the Big East commish, I feel certain something along these lines would at least be getting said.  Marinatto ought to be saying them as well.

Here we are at the beginning of another football season, which means, for many, the beginning of another season of degenerate gambling.  And when I say, "degenerate," I mean, at noon he goes 0-2 and he's down $220.  He figures he will get it back, so he doubles down at four o'clock.  He starts drinking.  He loses.  Now he's down $440.  Well, he thinks, he can't keep losing, right?  So he doubles down again on the 8 o'clock ESPN game and throws in an extra $200 to get some winnings out of the day.  He loses.  Now he's down $1080, and it's near midnight, and he's drunk and panicked and feeling that nauseous swirl of anxiety every moment, slurring to his bookie: "Give me $2200 on Hawaii."  Nevermind that it's a toss-up game he would never have even thought about betting back at noon.  And here he is betting it, just to get back to even.

Now, we certainly hope the above scenario isn't a regular Saturday narrative for any of our readers.  And, of course, we in no way endorse anything that is illegal.  This is purely a business stimulator.  But the path to a million is on the other side of the jump.  

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Sometimes it takes hindsight to realize just how good something was.  Looking over last season’s statistics as I prepared to write this little piece on the 2011 Mountaineer defensive line, I couldn’t help but notice with renewed amazement how good last year’s defensive line was.

An old high school coach told me once that "third down in the trenches" usually decides a close football game.  Third down - that down which is so often about two groups of colossal men battling each other for a mere couple of yards - was the exclusive territory of last year’s DL.  Consider that opponents converted just 26 percent of 186 third down tries against the Mountaineers last year.  More than half of those attempts were runs of less than three yards that did not move the sticks.  What better testament to the work of immovable anchors like Chris Neild, and Scooter Berry can there be?

Unfortunately, Neild and Berry, along with Larry Ford have graduated.  And even with regular contributors Julian Miller and mega-watch list maker Bruce Irvin still around, there is little doubt that this year’s line, while potentially still good enough to be dominant, has huge shoes to fill.  This may be complicated by the fact that this year’s line is undersized compared to years’ past.  Miller moves from defensive end to defensive tackle and gained 20 pounds in the offseason to prepare for the position change, while Irvin looks to become more of an every-down player, even as he continues to be a quarterback’s backfield nightmare.

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Last week I was listening to the Dan Patrick Show, as Patrick and the Danettes debated whether Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit was enough of an achievement to merit Jeter being included in a mythical Mount Rushmore of Yankee greats.  I think that when your team's pantheon of legends includes Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, and Mickey Mantle there isn't enough room for Jeter's face, but the hypothetical question got me thinking:  which faces would grace a Mountaineer Rushmore?

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Last night, the South Carolina Gamecocks won their second consecutive NCAA College World Series title on the field pictured above.  That is TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Nebraska: the shining new replacement for old Rosenblatt Stadium, which hosted the CWS from 1950 up until this year, when the event moved into these fancy new digs.

As last night's game neared its conclusion, I got to thinking about how little attention West Virginia University baseball garners, and how equally amazing it is that in 60-plus years West Virginia has never had a team qualify to be in the last eight that go to Omaha.  WVU has made it to the NCAA tournament 22 times, but not since 1996, and if you think about it, that is now four football coaches ago.  Yet, the same man, Greg Van Zant, still heads the baseball program, and clearly isn't held to the same win-or-else standard as those in the two major revenue sports.  But, after a little digging, it seems to me that maybe Van Zant shouldn't be held to that high standard.  It might just be that a single factor limits the possibilities of Mountaineer baseball, and it isn't coaching.  It's location.

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via www.businesscartoons.co.uk

Thanks to the addition of so many contests over at twinspires.com, my brother and I have been in full NHC practice mode for some months now.  Sadly, no contest site anywhere thought to take advantage of 14, count 'em, 14 stakes races on this Memorial Day, which means we get the chance here at The Stretch to practice on our own.  I've chosen to use the 11 races that the site's proprietor, Matt, mentioned in his weekend preview from a few days ago.

 Today's contest races:

Leg 1 - Lone Star 4, Ouija Board Distaff Stakes, Grade III (Turf), Post: 3:59 EST

Leg 2 - Lone Star 6, Dalllas Turf Cup Stakes, 150K (Turf), PostL 4:55 EST

Leg 3 - Churchill Downs 9, Winning Colors Stakes, Grade III, Post: 4:59 EST

Leg 4 - Belmont 9, Sands Point Stakes, Grade II (Turf), Post: 5:16 EST

Leg 5 - Monmouth 11, Violet Stakes, Grade III (Turf), Post: 5:33 EST

Leg 6 - Belmont 10, Metropolitan Handicap, Grade I, Post: 5:49 EST

Leg 7 - Lone Star 8, Lone Star Derby, 200K, (Turf), Post: 5:51 EST

Leg 8 - Lone Star 9, Lone Star Park Handicap, Grade III, Post: 6:19 EST

Leg 9 - Golden Gate 8, Berkeley Stakes, Grade III, Post: 7:25 EST

Leg 10 - Hollywood 8, Los Angeles Handicap, Grade III, Post: 7:41 EST

Leg 11 - Hollywood 9, Gamely Stakes, Grade I, Post: 8:11 EST

As we remember the deeds and sacrifices of our armed forces today, we are employing the standard NHC Qualifier rules.  Players make a mythical $2 Win and $2 Place wager on a single horse per entry.  Highest total after the eleven races is the winner, and payouts are capped at 20-1 for win, and 10-1 for place.  You may play a maximum of three entries.  Put your picks for each race in the comments section prior to the race going off.

My personal goal for winning a tournament of this type - online, all mandatory races - would be a total of $110, so if you hit that number, know that you have done pretty well.

Good Luck!

[via static.foxsports.com]

In the immediate aftermath of the Mountaineers bowl game loss to NC State, I was advocating the position that WVU Athletic Director Oliver Luck eschew the 2011 Farewell-to-Smilin'-Bill Tour and go straight to premiering the new gridiron show directed by Dana Holgorsen.  The months since that egregious loss may have softened my position, but I still wonder about the Head-Coach-In-Waiting model, which, for my money, has to define the word "awkward."

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via www.cartoonstock.com

Here in West Virginia, another snow storm is in progress, which makes it an ideal kind of day to sit back and (mythically) play a contest.  I've included six stakes races and thrown in a couple of others to make it more interesting.  Format is NHC-style: $2 to win and place on one horse.  We're all grown ups, so if you play, keep your own total.  Winner gets hearty congratulations.  (My real goal is to stay sharp and see if I can net $40 from the 8 wagers, which is what I would hope for from 8 mandatory races in an actual NHC qualifying contest).  Two entries are allowed.

Put your picks in below.  As long as they are in before the race goes off, they count!

Here are the races:

Leg 1 - Fair Grounds Race 5 - Dixie Poker Ace Stakes, 1 Mile, Turf (Post 3:38 EST)

Leg 2 - Aqueduct Race 8 - Busanda Stakes, 1 Mile 70 yards (Post: 3:45 EST)

Leg 3 - Gulfstream Race 7 - Spectaular Bid Stakes, 6 Furlongs (Post: 3:52 EST)

Leg 4 - Tampa Bay Race 9 - Pelican Stakes, 6 Furlongs (Post: 4:07 EST)

Leg 5 - Gulfstream Race 8 - OC80000n3x, 1 Mile (post: 4:23 EST)

Leg 6 - Gulfstream Race 9 - Hal's Hope Stakes (GIII), 1 Mile (Post: 4:52 EST)

Leg 7 - Santa Anita Race 6 - Clm40000, 61/2 Furlongs(Post: 6:06 EST)

Leg 8 - Santa Anita Race 7 - San Pasqual Stakes (GII), 1 1/16 Miles (Post: 6:37 EST)

Good Luck!

We don't get nearly as much email as we would like, but we would like that to change.  Hence, we are introducing a new feature here at The Musket, wherein we shall post interesting emails we have received so that they may spark chuckles, or indignation, but at the very least: conversation.

Read on for some of our most-recently received items.

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