SB Nation User Blog: JPH

How many pieces do we need? Examining the 07-08 Dolphins transition for clues.

JPH — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:47:02 -0000

There was a discussion recently about Terrell Owens, and whether or not the Bills should try to bring him back. For the most part, it seemed like the consensus was that, since the Bills had too many holes to fill (pre-emptive TWSS), they shouldn't bother giving TO the multi-year contract and millions he will likely demand when they could spend that on someone who...you know...isn't 36.

This got me wondering. I've always fallen on the "we need too many pieces" side of things, but I'm also usually wrong. So I decided to look at the most notable recent turnaround, the Miami Dolphins. The team went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008 after blowing up their front office and coaching staff. Do we have more pieces in place than they did? How many pieces can a team possibly acquire in only 1 offseason?

Half-assed analysis after the jump.

Let's start with a few disclaimers:

No, I do not think this team is as bad as the 2007 Miami Dolphins.
As excited as we might be about Shanahan/Holmgren/Fewell/Galliford, there is no way our front office and coaching could possibly improve more than the jump from Cam Cameron and Randy Mueller to Tony Sparano and Jeff Ireland, with one of the best football minds in the history of the league, Bill Parcells, lurking in the background. Quite simply, Jauron wasn’t as bad as Cameron, and I don't think anyone who's available is in Parcells's league as a talent evaluator.
In the chart below, Jake Long is referred to as Jason Long. It's my nickname for him. Or I got it wrong when I was making the chart.

Okay, now to the analysis: The Dolphins' primary starter changed at 12 of the 22 starting positions from 2007 to 2008.

Three players were acquired in two separate trades
Three players were acquired in Free Agency
Two players were promoted from reserve roles
Two players were drafted in the 2008 draft
Two players returned from injury.

What do we know? Given the right breaks, a team can bring in as many as 8 new starters in an offseason. Here are the positions I think the Bills stink at, this year's starter, and how I think they need to get that upgrade:

For the Bills to be good next year, the Off-season can look like 1 of two scenarios:

Scenario 1 (In which our players are better than I think, and we have some sort of genie-trainer)

We sign a FA quarterback (hey chad!)

We resign Terrell Owens

LT Demetrius Bell develops into a competent LT over the next 9 months

C Geoff Hangartner is the weak link in the line (this is totally doable. Example: the 16 games Ndukwe started at G for the Phins in 08 are the only ones he's started in his career, and he's currently a backup for the Chiefs.)

RG Eric Wood returns next year and stays healthy

RT Brad Butler returns next year, stays healthy, and plays the way he was playing this year before getting hurt.

LE Aaron Maybin develops into a very, very good passrusher and splits time with Kelsay, who plays rushing downs. Together they make a good defensive end.

The Bills sign or draft the best either SLB or MLB available, and then Posluzny develops into a competent player at whichever of those spots is left empty. Ellison is a reserve.

Scenario 2 (In which our guys are so bad/unhealthy that Ralph has to sell a kidney to pay for the new guys we need):

Sign a FA quarterback

Draft/Sign a #2 WR (sorry guys, I don't think Steve Johnson or James Hardy is a #2 by next year)

Draft/Sign a LT

Draft/Sign a C

Draft/Sign a RG

Draft/Sign a RT

Draft/Sign a LE

Draft/Sign a SLB

Draft/Sign a MLB

Here's what I think the reality will be: Wood and Butler won't be healthy or effective next year, Terrell Owens will walk, Kelsay and Maybin will split time, and the Bills will bring in a SLB. I don't think that'll be enough, because it'll require serious development from Maybin, Poz and Bell, and I don't expect that. Scenario 2 is pretty much impossible, but, if we don't get healthy and if our youngsters don't develop, that'll be what's necessary for us to compete.

Conclusion
So, to go back to the original question: How many pieces do the Bills need? Anywhere between 2 and 9. If the answer is 9, the Bills aren't going to compete next year. Even in the amazing offseason the Phins had, they only added 8 starters. But if the answer is closer to 2, and I'm not 100% convinced that it isn't, then we can talk.
What do you guys think? Do we need 2 or 3 players, or is it more like 8 or 9?

Let's talk Poz

JPH — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:47:14 -0000

No, not poz.

Poz. You know? Paul Posluszny? Mullet, broken arm, heart of a dragon?

Got it? Good.

I don't have the game on tape, so we're going to have to use NFL.com's highlights. Flawed, but effective for this debate.

Our run defense is not all Poz's fault. I'm not that crazy. But he's a big-time factor. He takes bad routes to the ball carrier, takes himself out of plays, and has no hope of shedding a blocker once engaged. The best play he made this week was causing the Slaton fumble, right? Watch the play again (starts at about 0:35). Now, I don't like to be finicky about Poz (because there's plenty of other material), but jeez. He got juked out of his shoes. He barely got a finger on the ball. Forced Fumble is a really generous term for that. Maybe you could argue that Slaton fumbled because Poz was so intimidating that he overdid that move? I don't know, a forced fumble is a forced fumble, but that was not exactly a punishing hit from Poz. It was a lucky missed tackle.

Now watch the Ryan Moats show.

Did it sting for you? It stung for me. 151 total yards. 3 touchdowns. More depressing: even Ian Eagle had 74 yards and a touchdown in garbage time. (You're welcome for that Ian Eagle/ Solomon Wilcotts man love photo, by the way.)

What follows is my brief summary of those 8 plays:

Missed tackle
Ran himself out of the play on screen pass
Got close to the ball… 11 yards down field
Runs himself out of play
Runs right into blocker, can't shed him, Moats goes right past him
No penetration, but 2 yard TD runs happen
Runs way upfield… Moats goes right where he was standing
Never makes it out of the end zone, gets dominated by blocker

Now, I predict the argument that this was a self-fulfilling prophesy, that of course we won't see Poz play well on highlights from another RB. But that's 8 plays, not 1 or 2 plays. 6 are really bad and the other 2 he's a complete non-factor. And trust me, I do this every week. (Call it a depressing obsession.) This is no different from any other week he's played this season.

Anyway, how can you watch these plays and defend him? How can you say he played well?

I don't mean this as condemnation of him as a player forever. I don't think it's impossible for him to become a good LB. I'm not a judge of potential. But I can judge his actual performance, and there's no way, as far as I can tell, that you can argue that he's playing well.

Thanks for reading.

Poll

In your view, how has Poz played this year?

Great. Pro Bowl caliber, if he'd stayed healthy.

0 votes

Very Good.

6 votes

Above Average.

28 votes

Average.

39 votes

Below Average.

26 votes

Let's watch the game together and complain! Poz stinks!

1 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed

My thoughts following this Jets football game.

JPH — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 03:17:12 -0000

Some of this is obvious. Some of this is totally subjective. But I needed to get it all off my chest and I didn't think I could do it by commenting on other people's posts. We'll be discussing 3 things or so.

Trent vs. Fitzy
The Run Defense
Jairus Byrd
A modest proposal on why we can no longer return or cover kicks, and why it's impermanent.

It's all below the jump.

1. Trent Edwards vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Let me get this out of the way: Ryan Fitzpatrick is bad. He is a bad NFL quarterback, and he's absolutely not the answer for the Bills.

That being said, Trent Edwards has been on another level of bad for much of his NFL career. For the last (roughly) 8 or 9 weeks of last season, and the last 2 weeks of this season too, Edwards hasn't look like a bad NFL QB, he's looked like a schizophrenic division 3 quarterback who got tricked into going onto the field and just wants to go home. He's suffered such an insane and violent crisis of confidence that the only thing I've been able to compare it to was the way that JP Losman looked from 2007 onwards. I know they're very different quarterbacks in many ways, but they both looked completely terrified on the field. We all know JP's vice, where he stood in the pocket, bouncing and patting the ball with his off hand until finally someone would sack him or he'd try to heave it 70 yards. He'd hold onto the ball forever and he looked totally paralyzed.

To my eyes, this is how Edwards has looked recently, and it is the way he looked last year towards the end of the year. His vice is different, he either holds onto the ball until he's sacked or he dumps it immediately to his outlet receiver. Before this game, there was debate about whether that was just the playcalling of Alex Van Pelt. I think Fitz, for all his faults, proved that that is not the case. For whatever reason (my chips are on confidence) Edwards won't throw the ball over the middle, he cannot throw the slant, and he does not throw a good deep ball.

Call me a dreamer, but the Bills offense with Fitz was one with possibilities. I wrote this in the gamethread, but the Bills with Fitzpatrick looked like a team that was playing football, but they just had a bad QB so he'd miss some passes, or he'd make a bad decision, but it was all in the effort to move the ball down the field. The Bills offense the past 3 weeks or so (I'd say starting with the Saints game) has not appeared to be playing football. It looked like Trent was completely lost and was just waiting for the possession to end.

If this were about making the playoffs, I'd take the bad-QB over the team-that-doesn't-play-football.

But we're not going to make the playoffs, which is why, after all of that, we should let Trent start again as soon as he is healthy. We need to know for sure that he's not the guy before we can move on. I think I know for sure, but I'm wrong about nearly everything.

2. The Run Defense

The Buffalo Bills run defense stinks. That's not a secret. I don't think why they stink is a secret either, but I think it needs to be acknowledge publicly:

The Bills linebackers stink. Maybe all of them.

I'm not a huge Mitchell fan. He makes a lot of mistakes, but at least he's been sighted in the backfield, and he's made the occasional play. Anyway, Ashlee Palmer certainly seems to try his darndest, but he's not an NFL starter. Hey, maybe that's why he wasn't drafted…

I don't know what to make of Keith Ellison. He was great the first two games of the year, but he's disappeared since then. I think he can be the worst starting linebacker on a NFL team, but he has to be clearly the worst of the three. I'm not sure that's the case, and I think that's the problem. Keith is who he is, a low-impact space-filler.

Paul Posluszny. Oh poz. Anyone whos read my comments (or my dad's for that matter) knows I do not like Paul as a player. He certainly seems like he should be a stud:

great collegiate from the storied Linebacker U
tough, blue-collar worker
yells a lot
gross hair.

But you know what? He isn't. He's not even a good linebacker. He made an interception today. I went out of my way to give him credit, because god knows I've heckled him enough. That's the third play he's made in his career. Total. He has forced 1 fumble, and he's made 2 interceptions in a total of 21 games now. That'd be ok if he was a great run stopper, but he's not. He does not shed blockers well, he's the King of our overpursuit problem (Ryan Denney would be king, but his lack of PT this year makes him Crown Prince, IMO), and he gets blown up and out of plays constantly.
Guys, he's not a good linebacker! Maybe he'll become one. I'm not a judge of football talent, and for all I know he's about to turn a corner and become a very good middle linebacker. But I am a judge of what-the-heck-just-happened-in-front-of-my-eyes, and I challenge anyone to tell me he played well today, or that his reappearance in the lineup helped us in any way stopping the run.
Roundabout way of saying this: Each one of our linebackers could play on a good team, but only if they were the worst starting linebacker for that team. Ellison might have to be worst starting defender on the team. Not one of these guys should be the best linebacker on the field, and, when Mitchell isn't on the field, it's not clear to me which one is. That is the problem with our run defense.

3. Jairus Byrd Let's give some credit where credit is due. I've criticized the Bills for trying to be too clever. I think we saw an abundance of the past few offseasons. To review

Lets draft a center and a tackle to play guard, a safety to play LB, and a corner to play safety.
Let's not pony up the money for our pro-bowl LT, we'll go with a mediocre RT instead.
Forget the pro-bowl center available, let's sign a feisty career backup.
Screw the experienced guy, we'll go with our 7th round project instead.
We can find our franchise QB in the 3rd round.
You think Whitner is too green and maybe late first round? Boom. 9th overall.
What this team really needs is more cornerbacks
Let's try the no-huddle because it hasn't worked for anyone but a team that had 3 HOF offensive players (at least) and played 15 years ago.

Anyway, they really seem to have found something with Byrd. Let's remember, he didn’t even play safety in college! He has something you can't teach: a nose for the darn football. I think between he and McKelvin, this team will be able to make a ton more plays in the secondary in the future. Whitner is a nice player, and so are Scott and Mcgee, but they don't go after the football like Byrd and McKelvin do. The team deserves credit for deciding that was a skill/talent/inclination they valued, and finally getting it.

Playmakers, that's what you call 'em.

Anyway, Byrd still obviously needs work. He took some poor routes to the ball carrier and missed some tackles. But remember, last year he was a CB! He'll learn. And even if he doesn't, a FS's main job really shouldn't be run defense. God help us.

4. Bobby April and the case of the mysterious disappearing special teams expertise. I don't know much about the x's and o's of special teams, but this is a theory.
First of all, understand that in some ways, Bobby's job is the toughest of all the coaches. In no other area of the game does a coach have to deal with as much turnover between years. Basically, in a roster crunch, Bobby's guys are the first to go. Coy Wire, John Stamer, Blake Costanzo, Andre Davis, Justin Jenkins. The list goes on and on. For that reason, we've got to remember that Bobby is going to miss sometimes when he picks his nobodys to fill out the coverage and return teams. Nobody can be right 100% of the time.
Here's my theory on why he's missed this year in particular, and it's poorly researched and needs someone who pays better attention (read: Brian, K, 80% of the rest of this board) to confirm or deny its premise. This offseason there were some rule changes that (I think) outlawed the wedge blocking scheme for returns. As a response to that, supposedly Bobby went with more light fast guys on both the coverage and return teams. My theory is that he was wrong: either he was wrong that those adaptations were necessary or he was wrong with the guys he picked to fill those gaps. Anyway, my theory is that by the end of this year the entire NFL will have figured out the news rules, and then we'll be right back where we started, with Bobby running show.
Those are my thoughts, sorry for rambling and congrats if you made it this far.

Worries and Non-Worries

JPH — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 04:50:03 -0000

With two moves, the Bills have confused the hell out of their fanbase. For months, every indication was that the team wanted to win now. They have a coach who clearly must win this year or he's fired. They signed Terrell Owens. They drafted guys who they thought could play right away.

For a while, it certainly felt like they were doing everything they could to let Trent Edwards take this team to the playoffs this year.

Then, within the last week, we got some serious mixed signals. They fired the architect of their new, exciting No-pointsHuddle offense just days before the first game of the season. Then a few days later, they cut their only real veteran on the offensive line, a guy many felt was the best performer on the unit a year before. In his stead they stuck a 7th-rounder from a year ago. Demetrius Bell has not only never taken an NFL snap, the last meaningful game he played was in the Southland Conference. And we haven't even addressed the fact that he never played high school football.

This has been taken by many to be discouraging, a proverbial white flag. I've come up with a few reasons (after the jump), why these are good signs for the year ahead.

1. Could the Offensive Line be worse?

This team won 7 games last year. I don't think there was a single moment during the season where any of us thought, "Gosh, we have a heck of an offensive line." I mean, come on, these guys stunk! Can we honestly say we think the line will be worse this year?

RT. Obviously the Bills believe that Brad Butler is the superior RT, or else they would not have released Langston Walker.

G. I bet Wood will be as good as Butler was last year, but he'll improve as the year goes on, and again, if they thought it would've been better, they'd have moved Butler to RG and Walker to RT and benched Wood or Levitre. But they didn't, and because DJ is coaching for his life, I think we can safely assume that he did what he gave him the best possible offensive line this year, not in the future.

C. I think Hang will be better than Preston or Fowler, because you couldn't be worse than Preston or Fowler.

G. Dock got cut. He was horrible. Levitre has struggled but played much better of late, and it'd be tough for him to be less effective than Dock.

LT. Bell is worse than Jason Peters. I feel pretty confident about this. But let's not forget that we didn't have athletic bulldozer probowl Jason Peters on this team last year. We had out of shape sleep walking Jason Peters. I think Bell can be as good as that Jason Peters at some point this season.

Even if Bell does not get to the point Peters was at last year, can we really say the offensive line will be worse? Yes the release of Walker was weird, but Jauron is the one at practice everyday, and if he thinks that Bell is a better player right now, then he probably is. Let's not forget, Jauron can't afford to wave the white flag. He's trying to win now, and believes Bell gives him a better chance to do this. He has no ulterior motive. Maybe he's wrong, but if he is, then releasing Langston Walker is the least of our worries.

2. Could the Offensive Playcalling be worse?

Does anyone else remember the game where the Bills didn't call a single play-action pass? Does anyone remember that they were the only team in the entire league to do that, even just once, the entire season? I also vaguely remember someone pulling out the stat that the bills threw the ball virtually every time out of the gun, and ran it virtually every time Trent was under center? This is before we get to the fact that they still haven't figured out a way to use a guy with Roscoe Parrish's skills effectively even once a game on offense. The reality, in my opinion, was that Schonert was as unimaginative a playcaller as I've ever seen. I've heard him described as the architect of the offense. If we take that metaphor one of more level, if Schonert is the architect, then this is the offense he built.

Is Alex Van Pelt inexperienced? Obviously, he doesn't even have a preseason game's worth of experience. But does that mean he'll be worse than Turk Schonert at calling plays? I highly doubt it.

************************************

So while the timing of the two moves has not been ideal, the question is, do they really make the Bills worse than they were last year? I don't think they do.

I think the reality is that these moves are bursting bubbles. It's not that we're upset about them releasing Langston Walker, we're upset because it turns out that Langston Walker is not a competent Left Tackle. We're not upset that they fired Schonert, we're upset to find out that Turk Schonert was probably really bad at his job.

That being said, I do still think it's conceivable that this team can be good. We released a guy who wasn't good enough to start on the offensive line, and gave the playcalling duties to another coach. These things happen. They don't matter all that much. Neither affects the longterm of the team negatively (Was Langston Walker really going to be on the next Bills playoff team?), and neither one makes us appreciably worse than we were last year.

Just some thoughts.

Colts honor Harrison's request, release him after 13 seasons.

JPH — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 14:10:47 -0000

Colts honor Harrison's request, release him after 13 seasons.

nfl.com
Anyone else interested in him as #2 or is he too old?

Sign TO?

JPH — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 19:45:57 -0000

Cowboys coach Wade Phillips and owner Jerry Jones will discuss releasing wide receiver Terrell Owens as the team looks to improve chemistry in its locker room, EPSN.com is reporting.

This is not an article advocating that, if this were to happen, the Bills should go out and break the bank signing Terrell Owens. However if the price is right, I think the Bills should consider it.

I don't think that the "right price" even has to be bargain-basement low. It's got just got to be enough that we aren't prohibiting ourselves from spending to get a premiere defensive talent, like a Suggs or a Peppers or a (I hesitate to mention him in the same breath) Berry.

Without a doubt, TO is an aging, whiny, clubhouse cancer. He makes enemies everywhere he goes. He could very well send Trent Edwards up the wall. He is the anti-Chris Kelsay. His teammates hate him, he's not "good in the lockerroom" and he cares a heck of a lot more about TO than he does about his team.

I believe he's exactly what this team needs.

He's a red zone threat- The Bills don't have a dynamic, red zone threat, and when you settle for FG's, you lose football games. With 9+ TD's in every year but 2 since 1998, TO puts the ball in the endzone.
He can be 1A to Evans's 1- I love Lee Evans. I think he's a great football player. However I don't like him as our #1 receiver, for reasons that Brian talked about earlier in the season. He's a 3-5 catches, 60-80 yards kind of guy. That's great production, but he's not a possession receiver. He's not the guy we hit on 3rd down. TO is. And maybe we call TO 1 and Evans 1A, because TO would like that, and I think Evans wouldn't care.
He's tough- Yeah, the Cowboys folded this year. But TO didn't. When the team needed him the most, week 17, he had over 100 yards receiving. I think we all remember the super bowl he had with the Eagles while playing on 1 leg. I think the Bills were soft this year. TO wouldn't let that happen.
Trent is smarter than Romo- This is pretty subjective on my part, but I believe Trent is smarter, and mentally tougher than Tony Romo. I think he could take TO's antics, of which I'm sure there will be some.
Fire- Aside from being a brutally tough player, he quite simply doesn't tolerate mediocrity. I am willing to accept that I might be reading too much into Jauron's passive nature (and mediocre career record, his comfort with his DE's, with Anthony Thomas, his many 7-9 seasons), but it seems that the coach isn't going to get on his players for being average. TO wouldn't accept that. Plus, you'd get the added bonus of seeing your frustrations vindicated when he yapped at somebody on the sideline (tell me you don't want to see jauron look angry, just once!).

Obviously there are a lot of reasons not to do it. Spending on a 35 year old WR is rarely a good idea (though signing a 33 year old James Lofton certainly was). His intangibles (which I'm suggesting would help the Bills) are a main reason the Cowboys are thinking about dumping him. I think the fact that he could drive Edwards up the wall is a legitimate problem.

But at some point the Bills need to just go for it if they're going to be the team we all want them to be. We've had solid drafts, but we've fallen woefully short on finding impact talent. If it doesn't work out, you cut him, pay the signing bonus, and forget about it.

I think never taking a risk would be a much, much bigger mistake.

Poll

If Dallas releases him, should Buffalo go after Terrell Owens?

You're completely insane. I don't want that psycho on my team.

40 votes

Just no.

26 votes

Yeah, the rewards outweigh the risks.

13 votes

79 votes | Poll has closed