[Update the Second: OK, just did some more research on the underlying "Rule of 30." Turns out that "Minor league innings are somehow not the same as major league innings." It's not clear why this is, but it is. That said, the linked article also mentions a piece that Will Carroll did with Nate Silver that seems to conclusively show that it's pretty exclusively a young pitcher issue. Bottom line: Karstens may be tired, but he's at no added risk of injury/long term ineffectiveness.]

[Update the First: I made a stupid mistake. Karstens threw 16 innings in Indy last year, meaning that his total IP for 2010 was 138.2. 152.0 isn't a big increase from that. If he makes 5 more starts, he will be approaching a really significant increase, but he simply isn't there yet. My apologies.]

24%

That's the increase in IP from 2010 to 2011 for Karstens. That's from 122.2 to 152 as of this morning. 122.2 was itself a 12.5% jump over the previous season.

We all know that research shows, pretty conclusively, that overly large jumps in IP wreck pitchers. Karstens isn't young, but he's not old, either - still 28. Maybe 24% and 30 IP isn't big enough to trigger alarm bells (although I doubt that to be the case), but combined with the lack of life his pitches showed yesterday, I don't see how they can responsibly keep running him out there.

Now, I understand all the issues: they want to see what he's capable of if he's to come into 2012 as a rotation member. He wants to prove that he's durable despite being skinny. There's nobody to actually pick up his remaining starts (Aaron Thompson 5 more times?).

But come on. He's had a surprisingly great season. Before yesterday his ERA was at 3.09, and his xFIP is still under 4.00. He's now hit a wall, and it's time to declare victory and go home. Maybe they can skip a turn and give him another start or two on long rest, but taking him over 160 IP strikes me as reckless.

Aside from the frustration of yesterday's ugly loss (actually, ugly game; had we won, Red Sox fans would have considered it just as ugly), the Pirates still made up ground in the NL Central this weekend. The Brewers are up by four games, but the Pirates are in a bunch with the Cardinals and Reds, all three or four back. The Brewers are about to face the Yankees and the Reds the Rays, while the Cards go to Baltimore. We should at least hold our own this week, and could even gain some ground (optimistic but realistic outcome: we wake up Friday morning with the Cards 1 back, us 2 back, and the Reds 3 back).

But what's more interesting is the Pythagorean records and coolstandings.com's projections.  The Bucs' run differential is a bit negative, but coolstandings projects the Bucs to finish the year at .500, with a 16 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Those aren't great odds, but what shocked me is that the Cardinals are only at 23 percentª, which is even more amazing since coolstandings doesn't "know" about Albert Pujols' injury - it only looks at run differential and upcoming schedule.

Point being, the way things have played to date, the Pirates look pretty likely to land in fourth place at worst, and it wouldn't take much for them to reach third. Even second is possible if Cincinnati continues to underperform their Pythagorean record (which they've done pretty much all season long). And all of that is without fantasizing about what could happen when Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Steve Pearce (and I guess Jose Tabata) return.

ª Get this: The Nats have a better chance of reaching the playoffs than the Cards right now.

Sorry I don't know more, so I'm throwing it out to the collective wisdom: what's going on with Rinku Singh?

Last year, he threw in the Gulf Coast League most of the year, earning a late callup to State College (where he did fine in 1 appearance, 2IP 1H 1K 0BB). We know that he spent the winter in Australia, desperately trying to make up for 18 years of knowing nothing whatsoever about baseball. Then he went to the Dominican Summer League (where, incidentally, the Pirates' affiliate is leading their division) and pitched well again (3 relief appearances, 11IP 7H  3ER 3BB 7K). Now he's back in the GCL, having one appearance (4IP 1H 0BB 5K).

Now, I assume that this has much more to do with roster management and a pitcher squeeze at State College than any hard judgement about Rinku's future, but still: seems to me the guy's done everything anyone could have expected, and his numbers the last 2 years have been outstanding. He'll be 23 in 6 weeks, so he's starting to age out of the low minors (I'm willing to grant him a mulligan year or two due to unfamiliarity, but a 22-y.o. dominating the GCL doesn't tell you much because he's physically so advanced relative to most of the competition). Do we think he's a few strong appearances away from a promotion? Do we think it makes sense to slow-walk him? Do we simply think that a guy with a 33:11 K:BB and a 7.88 K/9 over the last two seasons has no future at all?

You know what we’re getting this season that’s always a part of surprising, exciting teams? Production from nobodies and scrubs. We’ve spent a lot of time here talking about how guys like XPaul and BWood and JHarrison aren’t really good, even if they’re productive for short spurts. But they don’t need to be really good; they just need to contribute, especially during this crazy rash of injuries.

Now, we’d be in trouble if we needed to rely on these guys long term, but we don’t. NH isn’t going to mistake any of them for permanent pieces. But in the meantime, we get XPaul personally wearing down the opposing starter while going 1/3 (He saw over 1/4 of all pitches thrown by the ’stros SP yesterday); we get BWood running into one in a tight ballgame when nobody was getting hits for the Bucs; we get Harrison showing a bit of opposite field power to stretch the lead a bit.

It doesn’t matter if any of those guys ever end up with a positive WAR; right now, they’re helping us win in real life. And that’s part of why this is turning into a bit of a Freak Show season for us.

(Note: this is a repost of a comment I made in the game thread; a few people suggested I FanPost it for broader readership)

Two datapoints from the past few days:

I biked past a field at a school and saw a half dozen kids (age 10 or so) with bats and gloves, playing what appeared to be unorganized, perhaps even pickup, baseball. I had just watched this video, which was heartwarming but also reminded me that kids don't actually do this very much anymore. Or maybe they do. Best part? The kid in the Andrew McCutchen shirt.

At the game last night where, despite a pretty small crowd (15,555, not bad for a Monday, except that it was absolutely magnificent weather), the fans were really into it. There were repeated fan-driven chants, which I've seen from big crowds (where there's a critical mass of drunk dudebros to start them), but it was pretty awesome to hear them in a half-empty ballpark. Honestly, it felt more like 1997 than I can remember at any game in years. Instead of the "How will they lose this one?" feeling, it was, "I just know they'll score/get the DP."

I'm starting to hope that the NFL season does get delayed, to buy this exciting young team another month with the local sports stage all to itself. If we get on a little roll and get above .500, this town could go a little nuts.

Per yesterday's Pirates Notebook in the P-G, attendance has increased 21% over last year, up to 20,785 per game. And this in spite of a staggeringly wet and cool spring (although iirc the Pirates have had fairly good luck with homestandsª).

The big Phillies weekend helped, obviously, but, spread out over 26 home games, it's no more than a ~700/game bump

The bottom line is that, through what are typically their worst-drawing months, they're out-drawing their overall attendance average from last season. I've always contended that a good Pirates team would see an immediate increase in attendance, and I think that 2011 - which hasn't even seen a really remarkable quality of play or spot in the standings - is proving me right. The first season they're in a pennant race, they'll top 25k per game, mark my words.

ª Although I also recall a few April games where there were literally hundreds in the stands, more due to the Pens than the weather

I was at the game yesterday, but I don't have anything to add regarding what happened in the game. But I wanted to share a number of other noteworthy things:

• Regarding the player introductions, Walker did get a big shout, as I expected, but I don't think it was any bigger than McCutchen's; it may not even have been bigger than Overbay's (who was benefiting, I suspect, from playing the role of "Veteran FA Signee." Oddly, I heard at least one boo when Pearce was introduced. I thought I saw a grown man weep after that, but I can't swear that it was Vlad.
• In general, for how crummy the game went, there was less booing than you might expect. A few years back, when Duke spit the bit on Opening Day, the boos were lusty and early. I think there might be a touch more optimism about this team among hoi polloi.
• On a related note, I biked to and from the game, wearing a jersey. I always love seeing the groups of people in Pirates gear as I come down Penn Ave - all the way out in Bloomfield, you see pairs of people waiting for the bus to get to the game. On the way back, two different people called to me from their car windows to ask if they won. When Dejan Kovacevic and others suggest that this town is absolutely primed to go nuts for a winning Pirates team, I think they're right. On the other hand, the look of "Same Old Pirates" on these people's faces when I told them it was a loss suggested that they won't bother asking again this year. The window for this club to capture the town's heart gets smaller every season.
• Late in the game, I moved down to the second row near first base. There was a funny exchange between a guy in the stands and Rockies first base coach Glenallen Hill. Hill's back pocket had the inevitable can of chew, but also something else. The fan shouted to ask what it was, and Hill, without turning, pulled out what looked like a Werther's Original, then also pulled out a paper of some sort. Then he gave a little shimmy, which was hilarious. The fan started shouting about Dancing With The Stars. Then the fan told him to scratch one leg if he agreed that Wigginton sucks, and the other leg if he disagreed. When the inning ended, Hill came over and gave the guy a talking-to about that (classily, he called him up to the fence to do it, rather than calling into the stands).
• Also up front was Mike Tomlin, in a Cutch jersey, with his two sons. No big deal, but cool. Near as I could tell, people left them alone during the game, and were even pretty good when they were walking out afterward - snapping pictures and calling "Hey, Coach," but not much more. I've read athletes saying that Pittsburgh is great because the fans know you and love you, but also keep their distance.

Per this Fangraphs analysis, looking exclusively at young guys making league minimum - the 0-3 group. Not only do Cutch, Walker, and Pedro all make it, but also:

Three(!) Pirates in the starting lineup, and Jose Tabata didn’t miss by much (neither didJames McDonald, on the pitching side). We’re approaching 20 years since Barry Bonds left and the Pirates last enjoyed an above-.500 season. That streak could end fairly soon.

It'll be interesting to see which happens first: the Pirates actually having some success, or people around baseball noticing the talent. In a way, 2011 is the pivotal year in that race between accomplishment and recognition: if they lose 95, then no one will say anything except, "Despite a few talented young players, the Same Old Pirates just clinched a record 19th losing season," and 2012 could catch everyone by surprise; OTOH, if they hang around .500 for a few months and end up in the 70s for wins, then everyone will start working the angle of "You know the Pirates have been  bad, but look at Andrew McCutchen and his crew of young Bucs."

Any analogies to Pittsburgh's national (and international) reputation and its sea change since the G-20 will be left to the reader.

In the Infinite Thread about Lyle Overbay, we talked a lot about defense, since it's fairly obvious that that's where his primary surplus value lies relative to the other potential first basemen on the roster. Among other things, we discussed his value as a receiver, and there was talk about whether Steve Pearce, as a "short" (5-foot-11) first baseman, was at a disadvantage as a receiver.

What we didn't discuss was this Fangraphs article about first basemen and "scoops," or general ability to catch errant throws. In it, we learn two relevant facts: One is that the average lefty first baseman over 6-foot-1 (that's Lyle) is worth 1.2 runs/season relative to average, while the average righty first baseman under 6-foot-1 (that's Pearce) is worth 0.8 runs/season less than average. The other is that Overbay has been one of the best receivers in baseball, saving an average of 2.5 runs per season (actually, per 1000 throws, which is about the same) relative to average.

Now, assuming that Pearce is an average short righty, then that's an expected surplus of ~3.3 runs saved based purely on saved throws. Given the Pirates' pitchers and other infielders, I'd guess that number should be a bit higher, but it's certainly in the neighborhood. In terms of range, the two are probably about equivalent - Pearce's sample sizes are small, but positive, and Overbay's range will presumably be in decline. Even if you give a slight edge to Overbay, it's hard to see him worth more than half a win on defense. If ZiPS is correct about the two, then it sure looks like the Pirates overpaid. Which, I might add, has been my contention since the moment I found out about the contract value.

Per DK, there's a lot of talk about the Pirates trading for him.

B-R says he's arb-eligible after next year, but don't guys from NPB work differently? I'm going on the assumption that he's a FA after the completion of his 3/$23M contract. DK says he's owed $6.67M for '11. We could afford to eat all of that; it really comes down to what we're willing to trade vs. how much we'd want to pay.

His ERA+ was 107 in '09 and 76 in '10; xFIP says he was the same ~4.58 pitcher both years. Decent, not great K rate, too many walks, nice, low GB rate that should play OK with our IF. In some ways he's the kind of guy that we've talked about as a more-suitable alternative to Zach Duke: less pitch-to-contact without being so outstanding that he's unreachable. If we covered $5M of his salary, we'd be paying what we would have for Duke with excellent prospects of getting better results.

So, whom do you trade for him, and how much salary do you want ATL to eat?

Incidentally, I cannot believe that he's the second Kenshin Kawakami in MLB history. 135 years, 2 Jack Wilsons, 2 Kenshin Kawakamis.

Fangraphs notes that Bill Hall is most likely going to become a free agent this winter. What if we put him at 3B, moved Pedro to 1B, and left Walker to get better at 2B?

No one loves the FA upgrade options at RF or 1B, and Orlando Hudson seems to be the only decent upgrade at 2B, and he might be pricey. Furthermore, there's a better than even chance that Rendon gets drafted and becomes our 3B by mid-2013, which makes you wonder if it's worth jerking Walker around the infield in order to win a couple more games in 2011 and 2012.

Hall is a career 3.9 UZR/150 at 3B; his career wOBA of .322 is middle of the pack for the hot corner. He is about to turn 31, so he could turn into a pumpkin, but the odds are probably for more of a modest decline. Hudson's got a better career wOBA (and better over the past 2-3 years), but he's about to be 33 - I don't think you can fairly project a big decline for one but not the other. Hudson's career UZR/150 is actually just 2.2 - he's been extremely variable - so, depending what you think Walker can accomplish with a full offseason/ST at 2B vs. moving back to 3B, it's not clear that there's a big defensive tradeoff either way.

I don't have a strong opinion, but it's an interesting idea to ponder. Do you want Hall or Hudson, and what would you pay for either?

As I've argued here a number of times, I think Neal Huntington can be kind of a dick. Not in the sense that pretty much all high level executives are dicks, but in the sense that he can be petulant and make bad baseball decisions as a result. The Salomon Torres trade was the first instance, in which a useful, even valuable, player was traded for the proverbial bag of balls because he'd had trouble with the previous FO (an FO that everyone agrees was stupid and mendacious, I would add). There are other examples (one being the way that the Wilson/Sanchez extensions were handled), but I do admit that the case is hardly definitive.

Still, DK has evidently noticed this trend so strongly that he writes about it preemptively in this morning's links post. Apparently GFJones is saying he thinks he's more than a platoon player, and DK expects that the FO will take this badly, using the history of Jose Bautista for evidence. We all agree that his current production was unforeseeable (DK says this as well), but, from having talked to the FO at the time of the events in question, Dejan feels quite strongly that JB was traded for, essentially, nothing of value because NH was offended by some pretty damned mild remarks.

The primary issue with the trade, as I saw it then and continue to see it, was that the Pirates reacted rashly to a rather innocuous situation and cost themselves an asset for that reason alone.

He goes on to discuss Walker, and I'm not particularly on board with that, both because I think NW was wrong in his statements and because I don't think the FO "punished" him for them. If they treated him as no more than a UT, it's because they misevaluated him (or even wanted to challenge him), not due to petulance. But I do think that there's a definite tendency on NH's part to allow his emotions to affect his personnel decisions, and it's not a good thing.

So I thought I'd check, after another superb start from James McDonald last night, how his speed held up through eight scoreless innings.

As you may recall, there were some serious concerns about his stamina in his first starts for the Pirates. Granting that he hadn't really been worked properly, he was still seeing a distinct dropoff in ability to reach his top end (94-5 mph) after 70-75 pitches. But last night was different. Per Pitchf/X, his speed was fairly consistent all game - but at a lower velocity. He maxed out at 93.1, while his max was 95.4 (!) in his second Pirate start.

I think the results speak for themselves: not only was he more effective, but he also lasted a bit longer. There's still a certain dropoff after ~70 pitches (see that string of 91-and-under pitches in the seventh inning), but I think that a smaller dropoff makes for more effective pitching - for a Major League hitter, a drop from 95 to 91 looks very hittable, while the drop from 92+ to 91 is insignificant.

At any rate, I think that McDonald has pretty effectively answered our questions about getting stretched out. I'm happy to trade a couple early MPH for more late-inning effectiveness.