SBNation.com User Blog: JRoth95

LARS F-ING ANDERSEN

JRoth95 — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 19:12:19 -0000

LARS F-ING ANDERSEN

Seriously, I think he might be even more talented than we ever knew.

Gary Sheffield is an agent - yes, THAT Gary Sheffield

JRoth95 — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 22:01:16 -0000

Gary Sheffield is an agent - yes, THAT Gary Sheffield

And guess who his only MLB client is? Jason Grilli.

Very interesting article.

Brisbee likes our trades

JRoth95 — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 18:09:08 -0000

Brisbee likes our trades

I'm actually not linking for his review (which is a good one IMO), but for this line:

"Seems like Juan Cruz should be 44 and out of baseball, but it turns out he's still just 33. He's like Jack Torrance in The Shining, in every team photo for the last 50 years, without anyone ever realizing it."

So, when will they win #82?

JRoth95 — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 21:43:02 -0000

Amazingly, astonishingly, we hardly talk about .500 here anymore. I don't need to tell you why this is, but a comment on some thread or another mentioned how many we need to win to reach that magical 82nd win, and how badly we'd have to do to fall short*.

Which led me to wonder: when might we reach the promised land if we don't collapse? Let's discount a collapse, and start with mere regression: .500 play the rest of the way. That would mean 56 games to reach 28 wins, which gets us to September 18, at home against the Brewers. That would be kind of nice, and could lead to a rare mid-week sellout, although, again, it would be a sad comedown after the way we've played since late May.

Next up, .550 the rest of the way. That would suggest a 91 win season, which would be amazing, yet would also be roughly what coolstandings.com is projecting for us right now. Zowie. Anyway, that's less satisfying for the hometown fans, as win 82 would occur on or about Wednesday the 12th, in Cinci. That would put as at 82-63, which would feel awfully good coming after 3 days at Great American.

And if we shoot the moon? We've been playing at a .680 pace over the last 50 games. I'm not crazy enough to project that, but what about .600 the rest of the way? That takes us to Game #141, Saturday, September 8, at home against the Cubs. That's actually the tail end of a home stand against the Astros and Cubs. Depending on our record as we enter that stand, the rising excitement – no, hysteria – could be something else. People will be looking past .500 at that point, but there'll be no denying a celebration. Hell, we could sell out the entire homestand.

Just for fun, I've created a poll below the fold.

*for the record: .397 the rest of the way gets us to 81 wins; .412 gets us to 82. Needless to say, such an outcome would be devastating, leaving .500 the most dismal of consolation prizes

Just for fun, I've created a poll below the fold.

*for the record: .397 the rest of the way gets us to 81 wins; .412 gets us to 82. Needless to say, such an outcome would be devastating, leaving .500 the most dismal of consolation prizes

Poll

So, when do you think the Pirates will win game #82 for the first time since September, 1992?

During the early September homestand (by Game 142)

18 votes

During the following road trip (between Game 143 and 149)

50 votes

Against the Hated Brewers at home (Games 150, 151, or 152)

17 votes

During the final 10 games of the season.

13 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Maybe this 4-man rotation would work for the Bucs?

JRoth95 — Fri, 22 Jun 2012 14:04:18 -0000

Maybe this 4-man rotation would work for the Bucs?

Put Bedard, J-Mac, Burnett, and Karstens on strict every-fifth-day schedules. Fill in the remaining 22 starts with Correia, Lincoln, or LOW. Hell, use that slot as a permanent tryout position. Use the extra bench position to bring up Morales, who can PH as well as catch, since you keep Fort around as your emergency catcher.

A few notes on RS, RA, and our Pythag

JRoth95 — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 16:32:49 -0000

First, the numbers, as we sit in first place: 32-27 real record, with a 191/208 RS/RA that translates to an expected record of 27-32. So we're well ahead of our Pythagorean record.

But as I've pointed out before, we don't have to give any of those wins back. So the question becomes, what's our expected record the rest of the way? I'll give you a hint: it's not - or shouldn't be - 47-56 (which is what you'd extrapolate from our Pythag).

Why not? Because most of that RS/RA deficit was accumulated in the opening weeks of the season, when our offense was threatening to break all modern records for futility. Go back one month*, and we were at 89/115. Over the last 31 days, this team's RS/RA is 102/93, which gives you an expected record of 15-12. We've done better than that (probably in part due to weaker opposition - 12 of 27 games against Astros, Brewers, Cubs, & Royals), but my point is simply that we should expect this team to outperform its Pythagorean record all season long, because its April offense was an outlier, both relative to history and relative to its talent level. We're clearly a below average offense by talent, but not historically so. Due to good luck, we outperformed our Pythag when the offense was at its nadir; if we merely match our Pythag going forward, we can expect a solid record, well ahead of our season-long Pythag.

Additional points: Sunday's 3 runs ensured that our average RS over the past 3 weeks - that's 18 games - is above 4 (4.06 to be precise). Why does this matter? Because our team's xFIP is at 3.97, and has been hovering in the high 3s for awhile now. It may not be stabilized, exactly, but I feel pretty comfortable saying that, cascading injuries aside, our RA should stay below 4.00 going forward**. All of which is to say that, if we think the offense we've seen in the last 3 weeks is real and sustainable (and I'd argue that it is, roughly - a few guys are hitting over their heads, but we still have had Pedro and Tabata more than 50% below ML average), then this team should be able to stay above .500 for the rest of the year.

So what's my bottom line? Don't worry so much about our Run Differential and Pythagorean record, because they are largely artifacts of the opening month, but we've weathered that month, and have no real reason to expect it to recur. This team has been outscoring its opponents for a month now, and will most likely score roughly as many runs the rest of the year as it allows. Enjoy it.

* an arbitrary endpoint chosen not for how we've played, but simply because it's one month

**not only do we have pretty good options if one of the current starters gets hurt, but we also will gain in the battle between ERA and DIPS if/when Correia departs the rotation - he's due for about 2/3 run of regression, but if we replace him with a true-talent 4.30 SP, we'd have the same team ERA going forward but an xFIP that drops by over 1/10 of a run

First, the numbers, as we sit in first place: 32-27 real record, with a 191/208 RS/RA that translates to an expected record of 27-32. So we're well ahead of our Pythagorean record.

* an arbitrary endpoint chosen not for how we've played, but simply because it's one month

Why yes, Pirates pitchers ARE getting screwed by the umps

JRoth95 — Wed, 23 May 2012 14:29:18 -0000

Why yes, Pirates pitchers ARE getting screwed by the umps

At least according to this Pitch f/X-based analysis, which says that we've had more strikes called balls than any other NL team, by a pretty big margin. Framing may be a factor, but I doubt it's the only one.

Fearful Symmetry

JRoth95 — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:50:32 -0000

Fearful Symmetry

6 games to go, and here are the win totals for the top 8 teams in each league:

98, 91, 90, 88, 86, 84, 78, 78, 76
95, 90, 90, 88, 86, 85, 79, 77, 76.

Now, that's not shockingly similar or anything, but I feel as if it's atypical. In recent years, we're accustomed to the top 3 in the ALE winning more than 15 NL teams (I guess technically, they still could), but even aside from that, it's just odd to see, with the exception of the #1 overall team, such close win totals.

I'll be curious to see where they end up.

A little note on Run Differential

JRoth95 — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 21:04:44 -0000

A little note on Run Differential

Rob Neyer notes today that every division is lined up correctly according to RD (except for the Dodgers & Giants). Reviewing the numbers, what stood out to me is that you've got 4 teams at -100 or worse (plus the Cubs at -98). And you've got 9 teams between -42 and 0. But just 2 teams (us and the Marlins) sit in the big gap (us at -76, them at -68).

Doesn't mean a thing; I just thought it was an odd distribution. The flip side is spiky as well: 4 teams (well) above +100, 6 between +53 and +80, then just 3 others in the green (including the Dodgers at +1, which may not last).

Theoretically, the middle group would be distributed about 0, but instead you have 10 clubs between -42 and +1, with gaps of 26 and 42 beyond that central group. My guess about what's happening is that the 4 monster teams have been so dominant that they've taken it out of the middling teams, such that an ostensibly .500 team ends up -10 or whatever because the Phillies beat their brains in to a greater extent than they could beat up on the Cubs (or us).

Karstens needs to be shut down immediately [UpdateX2]

JRoth95 — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 14:14:52 -0000

[Update the Second: OK, just did some more research on the underlying "Rule of 30." Turns out that "Minor league innings are somehow not the same as major league innings." It's not clear why this is, but it is. That said, the linked article also mentions a piece that Will Carroll did with Nate Silver that seems to conclusively show that it's pretty exclusively a young pitcher issue. Bottom line: Karstens may be tired, but he's at no added risk of injury/long term ineffectiveness.]

[Update the First: I made a stupid mistake. Karstens threw 16 innings in Indy last year, meaning that his total IP for 2010 was 138.2. 152.0 isn't a big increase from that. If he makes 5 more starts, he will be approaching a really significant increase, but he simply isn't there yet. My apologies.]

24%

That's the increase in IP from 2010 to 2011 for Karstens. That's from 122.2 to 152 as of this morning. 122.2 was itself a 12.5% jump over the previous season.

We all know that research shows, pretty conclusively, that overly large jumps in IP wreck pitchers. Karstens isn't young, but he's not old, either - still 28. Maybe 24% and 30 IP isn't big enough to trigger alarm bells (although I doubt that to be the case), but combined with the lack of life his pitches showed yesterday, I don't see how they can responsibly keep running him out there.

Now, I understand all the issues: they want to see what he's capable of if he's to come into 2012 as a rotation member. He wants to prove that he's durable despite being skinny. There's nobody to actually pick up his remaining starts (Aaron Thompson 5 more times?).

But come on. He's had a surprisingly great season. Before yesterday his ERA was at 3.09, and his xFIP is still under 4.00. He's now hit a wall, and it's time to declare victory and go home. Maybe they can skip a turn and give him another start or two on long rest, but taking him over 160 IP strikes me as reckless.

24%

That's the increase in IP from 2010 to 2011 for Karstens. That's from 122.2 to 152 as of this morning. 122.2 was itself a 12.5% jump over the previous season.

Checking Out The NL Central Standings

JRoth95 — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 16:15:30 -0000

Aside from the frustration of yesterday's ugly loss (actually, ugly game; had we won, Red Sox fans would have considered it just as ugly), the Pirates still made up ground in the NL Central this weekend. The Brewers are up by four games, but the Pirates are in a bunch with the Cardinals and Reds, all three or four back. The Brewers are about to face the Yankees and the Reds the Rays, while the Cards go to Baltimore. We should at least hold our own this week, and could even gain some ground (optimistic but realistic outcome: we wake up Friday morning with the Cards 1 back, us 2 back, and the Reds 3 back).

But what's more interesting is the Pythagorean records and coolstandings.com's projections. The Bucs' run differential is a bit negative, but coolstandings projects the Bucs to finish the year at .500, with a 16 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Those aren't great odds, but what shocked me is that the Cardinals are only at 23 percentª, which is even more amazing since coolstandings doesn't "know" about Albert Pujols' injury - it only looks at run differential and upcoming schedule.

Point being, the way things have played to date, the Pirates look pretty likely to land in fourth place at worst, and it wouldn't take much for them to reach third. Even second is possible if Cincinnati continues to underperform their Pythagorean record (which they've done pretty much all season long). And all of that is without fantasizing about what could happen when Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, and Steve Pearce (and I guess Jose Tabata) return.

ª Get this: The Nats have a better chance of reaching the playoffs than the Cards right now.

Rinku Question

JRoth95 — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 22:09:52 -0000

Sorry I don't know more, so I'm throwing it out to the collective wisdom: what's going on with Rinku Singh?

Last year, he threw in the Gulf Coast League most of the year, earning a late callup to State College (where he did fine in 1 appearance, 2IP 1H 1K 0BB). We know that he spent the winter in Australia, desperately trying to make up for 18 years of knowing nothing whatsoever about baseball. Then he went to the Dominican Summer League (where, incidentally, the Pirates' affiliate is leading their division) and pitched well again (3 relief appearances, 11IP 7H 3ER 3BB 7K). Now he's back in the GCL, having one appearance (4IP 1H 0BB 5K).

Now, I assume that this has much more to do with roster management and a pitcher squeeze at State College than any hard judgement about Rinku's future, but still: seems to me the guy's done everything anyone could have expected, and his numbers the last 2 years have been outstanding. He'll be 23 in 6 weeks, so he's starting to age out of the low minors (I'm willing to grant him a mulligan year or two due to unfamiliarity, but a 22-y.o. dominating the GCL doesn't tell you much because he's physically so advanced relative to most of the competition). Do we think he's a few strong appearances away from a promotion? Do we think it makes sense to slow-walk him? Do we simply think that a guy with a 33:11 K:BB and a 7.88 K/9 over the last two seasons has no future at all?

Sorry I don't know more, so I'm throwing it out to the collective wisdom: what's going on with Rinku Singh?

Even good teams rely on bad players

JRoth95 — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 20:24:24 -0000

Even good teams rely on bad players

As I was saying in a thread the other day, a huge misconception is that contending teams consist of a few All Stars, a few above average players, and the remainder of regulars are about average. In fact, nearly every team, even the very best, carry some dead weight. And here's a quick analysis showing that a dozen playoff teams over the past 9 years have given 500 or more PAs to players below replacement level.
So, while I'm a big fan of the idea that you can improve a team from the bottom as well as from the top (that is, replacing dead weight with average players, rather than replacing average guys with All Stars), let's not imagine that the Pirates can't contend until the 25 man roster consists of nothing but solid major leaguers.

Little contributions

JRoth95 — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 20:14:49 -0000

So I was thinking during the game yesterday:

You know what we’re getting this season that’s always a part of surprising, exciting teams? Production from nobodies and scrubs. We’ve spent a lot of time here talking about how guys like XPaul and BWood and JHarrison aren’t really good, even if they’re productive for short spurts. But they don’t need to be really good; they just need to contribute, especially during this crazy rash of injuries.

Now, we’d be in trouble if we needed to rely on these guys long term, but we don’t. NH isn’t going to mistake any of them for permanent pieces. But in the meantime, we get XPaul personally wearing down the opposing starter while going 1/3 (He saw over 1/4 of all pitches thrown by the ’stros SP yesterday); we get BWood running into one in a tight ballgame when nobody was getting hits for the Bucs; we get Harrison showing a bit of opposite field power to stretch the lead a bit.

It doesn’t matter if any of those guys ever end up with a positive WAR; right now, they’re helping us win in real life. And that’s part of why this is turning into a bit of a Freak Show season for us.

(Note: this is a repost of a comment I made in the game thread; a few people suggested I FanPost it for broader readership)

So I was thinking during the game yesterday:

(Note: this is a repost of a comment I made in the game thread; a few people suggested I FanPost it for broader readership)

Signs Of Life In Local Baseball Fandom

JRoth95 — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 16:54:09 -0000

Two datapoints from the past few days:

I biked past a field at a school and saw a half dozen kids (age 10 or so) with bats and gloves, playing what appeared to be unorganized, perhaps even pickup, baseball. I had just watched this video, which was heartwarming but also reminded me that kids don't actually do this very much anymore. Or maybe they do. Best part? The kid in the Andrew McCutchen shirt.

At the game last night where, despite a pretty small crowd (15,555, not bad for a Monday, except that it was absolutely magnificent weather), the fans were really into it. There were repeated fan-driven chants, which I've seen from big crowds (where there's a critical mass of drunk dudebros to start them), but it was pretty awesome to hear them in a half-empty ballpark. Honestly, it felt more like 1997 than I can remember at any game in years. Instead of the "How will they lose this one?" feeling, it was, "I just know they'll score/get the DP."

I'm starting to hope that the NFL season does get delayed, to buy this exciting young team another month with the local sports stage all to itself. If we get on a little roll and get above .500, this town could go a little nuts.

Two datapoints from the past few days:

More insight and background on DK's move

JRoth95 — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 20:44:29 -0000

More insight and background on DK's move

From the City Paper's Slag Heap blog. It all came down to his desire to be a columnist; the P-G wouldn't give him a column, and the Trib would.

Improved Pirates already seeing attendance bump

JRoth95 — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 14:40:09 -0000

Per yesterday's Pirates Notebook in the P-G, attendance has increased 21% over last year, up to 20,785 per game. And this in spite of a staggeringly wet and cool spring (although iirc the Pirates have had fairly good luck with homestandsª).

The big Phillies weekend helped, obviously, but, spread out over 26 home games, it's no more than a ~700/game bump

The bottom line is that, through what are typically their worst-drawing months, they're out-drawing their overall attendance average from last season. I've always contended that a good Pirates team would see an immediate increase in attendance, and I think that 2011 - which hasn't even seen a really remarkable quality of play or spot in the standings - is proving me right. The first season they're in a pennant race, they'll top 25k per game, mark my words.

ª Although I also recall a few April games where there were literally hundreds in the stands, more due to the Pens than the weather

The big Phillies weekend helped, obviously, but, spread out over 26 home games, it's no more than a ~700/game bump

ª Although I also recall a few April games where there were literally hundreds in the stands, more due to the Pens than the weather

If these are the best available SPs, Maholm's worth a ton

JRoth95 — Sat, 04 Jun 2011 03:10:53 -0000

If these are the best available SPs, Maholm's worth a ton

Dave Cameron goes over what he calls the best available pitchers on the trading block. The pickings are extremely thin: after Edwin Jackson (who, by my reading, profiles a lot like Maholm, but a notch better), choices like Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Marquis are markedly less attractive than Paulie (older, less effective, not noticeably better contracts). Maybe Cameron's just put together a crap list (wouldn't be surprising), but my opinion of Maholm's likely return just went up.

PNC Park is the best, again

JRoth95 — Tue, 31 May 2011 13:39:48 -0000

PNC Park is the best, again

This is simply based on Yelp ratings, compiled by Nate Silver. But what's interesting (to me) is the standard deviations; smaller SDs mean more agreement, and PNC Park has by far the smallest SD in baseball.

I know we all know this, but it's kind of amazing that, 10 years after opening, it's still the best.

This afternoon's game rained out

JRoth95 — Tue, 17 May 2011 15:11:52 -0000

This afternoon's game rained out

Time for another thread about Jose Bautista.

Opening Day Observations - Off the Field

JRoth95 — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:35:26 -0000

I was at the game yesterday, but I don't have anything to add regarding what happened in the game. But I wanted to share a number of other noteworthy things:

Regarding the player introductions, Walker did get a big shout, as I expected, but I don't think it was any bigger than McCutchen's; it may not even have been bigger than Overbay's (who was benefiting, I suspect, from playing the role of "Veteran FA Signee." Oddly, I heard at least one boo when Pearce was introduced. I thought I saw a grown man weep after that, but I can't swear that it was Vlad.
In general, for how crummy the game went, there was less booing than you might expect. A few years back, when Duke spit the bit on Opening Day, the boos were lusty and early. I think there might be a touch more optimism about this team among hoi polloi.
On a related note, I biked to and from the game, wearing a jersey. I always love seeing the groups of people in Pirates gear as I come down Penn Ave - all the way out in Bloomfield, you see pairs of people waiting for the bus to get to the game. On the way back, two different people called to me from their car windows to ask if they won. When Dejan Kovacevic and others suggest that this town is absolutely primed to go nuts for a winning Pirates team, I think they're right. On the other hand, the look of "Same Old Pirates" on these people's faces when I told them it was a loss suggested that they won't bother asking again this year. The window for this club to capture the town's heart gets smaller every season.
Late in the game, I moved down to the second row near first base. There was a funny exchange between a guy in the stands and Rockies first base coach Glenallen Hill. Hill's back pocket had the inevitable can of chew, but also something else. The fan shouted to ask what it was, and Hill, without turning, pulled out what looked like a Werther's Original, then also pulled out a paper of some sort. Then he gave a little shimmy, which was hilarious. The fan started shouting about Dancing With The Stars. Then the fan told him to scratch one leg if he agreed that Wigginton sucks, and the other leg if he disagreed. When the inning ended, Hill came over and gave the guy a talking-to about that (classily, he called him up to the fence to do it, rather than calling into the stands).
Also up front was Mike Tomlin, in a Cutch jersey, with his two sons. No big deal, but cool. Near as I could tell, people left them alone during the game, and were even pretty good when they were walking out afterward - snapping pictures and calling "Hey, Coach," but not much more. I've read athletes saying that Pittsburgh is great because the fans know you and love you, but also keep their distance.

I was at the game yesterday, but I don't have anything to add regarding what happened in the game. But I wanted to share a number of other noteworthy things:

Regarding the player introductions, Walker did get a big shout, as I expected, but I don't think it was any bigger than McCutchen's; it may not even have been bigger than Overbay's (who was benefiting, I suspect, from playing the role of "Veteran FA Signee." Oddly, I heard at least one boo when Pearce was introduced. I thought I saw a grown man weep after that, but I can't swear that it was Vlad.
In general, for how crummy the game went, there was less booing than you might expect. A few years back, when Duke spit the bit on Opening Day, the boos were lusty and early. I think there might be a touch more optimism about this team among hoi polloi.
On a related note, I biked to and from the game, wearing a jersey. I always love seeing the groups of people in Pirates gear as I come down Penn Ave - all the way out in Bloomfield, you see pairs of people waiting for the bus to get to the game. On the way back, two different people called to me from their car windows to ask if they won. When Dejan Kovacevic and others suggest that this town is absolutely primed to go nuts for a winning Pirates team, I think they're right. On the other hand, the look of "Same Old Pirates" on these people's faces when I told them it was a loss suggested that they won't bother asking again this year. The window for this club to capture the town's heart gets smaller every season.
Late in the game, I moved down to the second row near first base. There was a funny exchange between a guy in the stands and Rockies first base coach Glenallen Hill. Hill's back pocket had the inevitable can of chew, but also something else. The fan shouted to ask what it was, and Hill, without turning, pulled out what looked like a Werther's Original, then also pulled out a paper of some sort. Then he gave a little shimmy, which was hilarious. The fan started shouting about Dancing With The Stars. Then the fan told him to scratch one leg if he agreed that Wigginton sucks, and the other leg if he disagreed. When the inning ended, Hill came over and gave the guy a talking-to about that (classily, he called him up to the fence to do it, rather than calling into the stands).
Also up front was Mike Tomlin, in a Cutch jersey, with his two sons. No big deal, but cool. Near as I could tell, people left them alone during the game, and were even pretty good when they were walking out afterward - snapping pictures and calling "Hey, Coach," but not much more. I've read athletes saying that Pittsburgh is great because the fans know you and love you, but also keep their distance.

Over/Under 67.5?

JRoth95 — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 15:36:18 -0000

Over/Under 67.5?

Per PBC Blog, Bodog.com has pegged the over/under for the Pirates' 2011 win total at 67.5. As you all know, I think that's way low - I actually went over there to look into laying some money down, so confident am I. So which would you take?

MLB loaned the Mets $25 million late last season. Should have instead forced them to trade David...

JRoth95 — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 15:40:01 -0000

MLB loaned the Mets $25 million late last season. Should have instead forced them to trade David Wright for Jose Hernandez and Bobby Hill.

Great, snarky line from DK. Has the added benefit of making a legit complaint.

DK Scouts Rendon

JRoth95 — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 21:06:26 -0000

DK Scouts Rendon

This is pretty cool: DK just arrived in Houston, where he'll watch Rendon's first 2 games of the season. Blah blah ankle, blah blah future, whatever. Great assignment, and I look forward to reading about it.

Pirates have 3/8 of best young position players

JRoth95 — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 22:23:24 -0000

Per this Fangraphs analysis, looking exclusively at young guys making league minimum - the 0-3 group. Not only do Cutch, Walker, and Pedro all make it, but also:

Three(!) Pirates in the starting lineup, and Jose Tabata didn’t miss by much (neither didJames McDonald, on the pitching side). We’re approaching 20 years since Barry Bonds left and the Pirates last enjoyed an above-.500 season. That streak could end fairly soon.

It'll be interesting to see which happens first: the Pirates actually having some success, or people around baseball noticing the talent. In a way, 2011 is the pivotal year in that race between accomplishment and recognition: if they lose 95, then no one will say anything except, "Despite a few talented young players, the Same Old Pirates just clinched a record 19th losing season," and 2012 could catch everyone by surprise; OTOH, if they hang around .500 for a few months and end up in the 70s for wins, then everyone will start working the angle of "You know the Pirates have been bad, but look at Andrew McCutchen and his crew of young Bucs."

Any analogies to Pittsburgh's national (and international) reputation and its sea change since the G-20 will be left to the reader.

Per this Fangraphs analysis, looking exclusively at young guys making league minimum - the 0-3 group. Not only do Cutch, Walker, and Pedro all make it, but also:

Three(!) Pirates in the starting lineup, and Jose Tabata didn’t miss by much (neither didJames McDonald, on the pitching side). We’re approaching 20 years since Barry Bonds left and the Pirates last enjoyed an above-.500 season. That streak could end fairly soon.

Any analogies to Pittsburgh's national (and international) reputation and its sea change since the G-20 will be left to the reader.

Australian paper writes up Rinku

JRoth95 — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 15:50:17 -0000

Australian paper writes up Rinku

A pretty good piece, actually. He's pitching in Canberra, so.

Lyle Overbay's Receiving Ability Will Help, But Not Enough

JRoth95 — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:09:10 -0000

In the Infinite Thread about Lyle Overbay, we talked a lot about defense, since it's fairly obvious that that's where his primary surplus value lies relative to the other potential first basemen on the roster. Among other things, we discussed his value as a receiver, and there was talk about whether Steve Pearce, as a "short" (5-foot-11) first baseman, was at a disadvantage as a receiver.

What we didn't discuss was this Fangraphs article about first basemen and "scoops," or general ability to catch errant throws. In it, we learn two relevant facts: One is that the average lefty first baseman over 6-foot-1 (that's Lyle) is worth 1.2 runs/season relative to average, while the average righty first baseman under 6-foot-1 (that's Pearce) is worth 0.8 runs/season less than average. The other is that Overbay has been one of the best receivers in baseball, saving an average of 2.5 runs per season (actually, per 1000 throws, which is about the same) relative to average.

Now, assuming that Pearce is an average short righty, then that's an expected surplus of ~3.3 runs saved based purely on saved throws. Given the Pirates' pitchers and other infielders, I'd guess that number should be a bit higher, but it's certainly in the neighborhood. In terms of range, the two are probably about equivalent - Pearce's sample sizes are small, but positive, and Overbay's range will presumably be in decline. Even if you give a slight edge to Overbay, it's hard to see him worth more than half a win on defense. If ZiPS is correct about the two, then it sure looks like the Pirates overpaid. Which, I might add, has been my contention since the moment I found out about the contract value.

Greg Linnelli To Replace Rocco DeMaro

JRoth95 — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 16:25:30 -0000

Greg Linnelli To Replace Rocco DeMaro

The actual headline is about Stan Savran, but it includes the news that Greg Linnelli will be doing pre- and post-game for the Pirates this year. Also, it appears that 970 will be the ESPN station, with five hours of local programming per day.

Kenshin Kawakami?

JRoth95 — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 19:02:00 -0000

Per DK, there's a lot of talk about the Pirates trading for him.

B-R says he's arb-eligible after next year, but don't guys from NPB work differently? I'm going on the assumption that he's a FA after the completion of his 3/$23M contract. DK says he's owed $6.67M for '11. We could afford to eat all of that; it really comes down to what we're willing to trade vs. how much we'd want to pay.

His ERA+ was 107 in '09 and 76 in '10; xFIP says he was the same ~4.58 pitcher both years. Decent, not great K rate, too many walks, nice, low GB rate that should play OK with our IF. In some ways he's the kind of guy that we've talked about as a more-suitable alternative to Zach Duke: less pitch-to-contact without being so outstanding that he's unreachable. If we covered $5M of his salary, we'd be paying what we would have for Duke with excellent prospects of getting better results.

So, whom do you trade for him, and how much salary do you want ATL to eat?

Incidentally, I cannot believe that he's the second Kenshin Kawakami in MLB history. 135 years, 2 Jack Wilsons, 2 Kenshin Kawakamis.

Per DK, there's a lot of talk about the Pirates trading for him.

So, whom do you trade for him, and how much salary do you want ATL to eat?

Incidentally, I cannot believe that he's the second Kenshin Kawakami in MLB history. 135 years, 2 Jack Wilsons, 2 Kenshin Kawakamis.

The A’s, meanwhile, get a heck of a return on investment from Davis’ tenure. Two and three-quarter...

JRoth95 — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 21:30:50 -0000

The A’s, meanwhile, get a heck of a return on investment from Davis’ tenure. Two and three-quarter seasons resulting in more than five and a half wins as well as two relief prospects for the cost of a waiver claim.

Fuck you, Dave Littlefield.