As many Caps fans, I have wondered about the dramatic decline in point scoring and goals for by the Caps, individually and as a team. Without looking at the numbers I thought for sure that goal scoring was down league wide. I was right, a whopping 1.4%, not exactly what I was expecting. Now that 1.4% was based off of a 3 year league average (as will all other numbers I compare current numbers too).

Lets start with the man that has won more personal hardware over the last 4 years than any other player, one Alexander Ovechkin. While he is sitting currently in 5th place in points overall in the league, his numbers show that his point production is down 25%. In 2007/08, 08/09 and 09/10, Ovechkin average an impressive 1.42 ppg average, now it has dipped to 1.06 ppg. Why? System? Predictability? Lack of effort?

Ovechkin isn't the only Cap suffering from a significant drop in production. Nick Backstrom broke out last season with a 100+ point season leaving us of thoughts of him being a top 3 center league wide. Well Backstrom's production is down 22% from his 3 year average. Now he has been hampered with some nagging injuries, but 22% is a significant number.

The other Alex is down too, 15% vs his 3 year average. Brooksy is down as well, 13%.

That brings us to Mike Green who has either completely redefined himself or is skating around with some missing pieces. Green's point production has taken a nose dive, a staggering 47%. Think about 47% for a minute, that's crazy. If I was 47% younger I'd be 21. With all of this said however, I'm not exactly upset with Green's play over the season. He certainly has more than tweaked his style of play.

But, Mike Green's decline in point production is a huge factor in the teams overall goal scoring decline, and vice versa, Green's new defense first mentality has also contributed to the teams overall improvement in goals against, I think?

Now what does this have to do with E.Fehr, my boy?

I only picked players to compare that are counted on for scoring and that are trending up. No Knuble or 3rd or 4th liners. E.Fehr still is playing mostly on the 3rd line but is getting more PP time with the departure of Flash. E.Fehr's has only a 8% drop in his 2 year production. Not exactly what I was expecting looking at his numbers.

My conclusion? 8 19 16.

The Sports Junkies are at best novice hockey fans/Caps fans, this can not be denied. One Junkie in particular is enamored with sports gambling, Lurch Papa or also the "King of Ashburn". I was listening to them on the radio this morning as they were mostly making uninformed comments about the Caps, not egregious errors just minor ones, no biggie. Lurch is pondering betting on the Caps every game using the "Martingale Scheme". 

The Martingale Scheme says you bet a consistent amount every bet until you lose a bet, then you double your next bet until you make your money back. For example, you wager $20 dollars and win, you then wager another $20 and lose. Your next bet should be $40, to recoup your loss and win an additional $20. However, the dilemma occurs when you lose multiple games in a row, like 4 to 5, so your losses go from $20 to $40, $80, $160 and finally $320. Obviously this could all spiral out of control rather quickly and for those without a huge bankroll, you are cooked.

Martingale System description

They way it would have to work is by betting the "Money Line". The money line is amount you'd have to risk to win $100. For example, the Caps last night were an overwhelming favorite to win at home vs the Senators, thus in order to win $100, you'd have to risk $230 dollars.

Knowing this, and as a former gambler of sorts and very curious of the outcome, I put this theory into a spreadsheet using last seasons results. I fictitiously wagered $100 of every Caps game. If the Caps were to lose to lets say the Islanders at home @ -$240 to win $100, then -$240 would be the loss. I then would wager $240 + $100 the next game, repeating the same equation until a win wiped my balance clean. Here are the results.

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Ilya Kovalchuk turned down big money from Russia this summer in order to stay in the NHL, because he wanted play here. Will you look at both leagues as equals?

"I like it here better. I've been here five years already and am used to everything. It's comfortable here." Alex Semin.

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Based on my last FanPost, there seemed to be many different ideas on how to build a team based on the criteria I gave. Does anyone want to put it to practice?

I need 14 subscribers, that would make 15 duel owners, including me. Each owner would draft for 2 different teams. The owner of the team drafting first would also draft for the team drafting 30th. It would be a serpentine draft, so team 30 would also draft 31st and team 1 would draft 60th and 61st. We would draft 2 forward lines, 2 defensive pairings and 1 goalie, 11 players.

The criteria is this... Start a team from scratch. This is not a fantasy team, this is real team built with some grit, solid defensemen. This is also not a long term draft or futures draft, this is for only the 2010/2011 season. Base your picks on building the best Cup ready team you can for the upcoming season.

I know that this exercise may not happen due to lack of interest, but I'm just throwing it out there. And keep in mind that this draft would take place over of a couple of day or more over email. Unless a better alternative can be found. Like FanShots?

Let me know if you're interested or have a suggestion on how make it better, or both.

So Backstrom is better than any defenseman in the NHL? Sorry … not buying it.

CanesCountry.com: An Eye On Carolina Hockey

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Looking at the Chicago Blackhawk salary cap disaster, uh I mean situation (not really), they have some really talented players that they may not be able to keep around and would look pretty nice in Capitals sweater. Now the gaping hole that has been irritating me has been the joke that has been our 2C situation. Laich, love him, can't play C. Morrison needs to go play C somewhere else. Belanger isn't the answer. Perreault needs more time on the 3rd line before he gets a chance. Flash, well, nevermind. Mackan isn't ready yet either.

We need a significant upgrade at 2C and as much as I like Koivu, he is 35 and really isn't the answer either. Modano and Jokinen aren't on the top of my list. GMGM lets make a deal with Chicago. They need cheaper solutions to fill the holes they'll have after this summers salary purging.

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Ok, we've read and heard all the pundits talk. Its time for us, the no-names. The playoffs are here and we need to be heard. Give me your predictions on the Caps v. Habs series and 1 note on the series. There will be some kind of tracking. Bragging rights to the victors. My prediction? Caps in 5. John Carlson will notch the game winner in Canada in game 3 in OT, just like he did last year in the U21 Worlds. Let the predictions rain.

Atlanta Thrashers

We now head to our division rivals (not really) the Atlanta Thrashers who as of now have 19 players signed and ready with about $16.98M in salary cap space to fill though holes. They made a few moves bringing in Antropov, signing him to a 4yr/$16.25M, a little high for enigma wrapped around a puzzle encased in a conundrum. Slater and Thorburn were re-signed to low impact contracts. They did make a significant trade with the Leafs and acquired Kubina, who only had 1 more year on his contract, and Tim Stapleton, who was a RFA who is yet to be re-signed. You have to believe they aren't going to go into the season with Hedberg or Pavelec as their netminders, Lehtonen is a RFA and I'm sure he is their first choice. Colby Armstrong will also be resigned. That will be 21 players in total with raises due to Lehtonen ($5.0M my guess) and Armstrong ($3.0M) which will leave ATL with roughly $9.0M to fill 2 holes for a team who aren't ready to compete for a playoff spot. In 2010/11 they'll have 10 players signed (not including Lehtonen, Armstrong) with $37.0M to use to re-sign Kovalchuk and either re-sign or replace Slava Kozlov (I wish my first name was Slava). The Thrashers seem to be in a good situation cap wise, but will they get Kovi into the playoffs? I give them a 9.

OK... You're asking why I am doing this, to be perfectly honest, I have no idea. I will take however long it takes to do all 30 teams, hopefully 1 team per day. Lets start alphabetically with Anaheim. (Capgeek.com is my resource)

http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=6

So Anaheim you would think with names like Getzlaf, Perry, Niedermayer, Selanne, Koivu, Lupul, Ryan, Giguere and Whitney (+deadweight Bertuzzi) would be if not in it, real close to cap purgartory. Well my friends you'd be wrong and so would I. With 22 players signed up for the upcoming year already they have a whopping $7.25M left to fill that last spot. If your an Anaheim fan you should be happy because you have Getzlaf, Perry and Lupul all signed to nice reasonable contracts through 2012/13. There is only 1 mildly bad contract and that belongs to Giguere ($6.0M)  who was replaced midway through the season by Jonas Hiller, but that contract expires after the 2010/11 season. Their summer (re)signings of Koivu, Niedermayer, Marchant and Boynton where very smartly done. This team is in great shape for next season as well with only one significant payraise due to Bobby Ryan and a modest one to Jonas Hiller if he repeats last seasons performance. This is a strong team that got better this off season, even with the departure of Pronger, Lupul and Sbisa are both quality players. Perry/Getzlaf/Ryan and Selanne/Koivu/Lupul are a pretty good top 6. Niedermayer is, well, Niedermayer. Whitney, Boynton, Sbisa and Niedermayer are their top 4, not bad.

Next season they'll have 10 players signed and have upwards of $28.0M in cap space to add significant FA.

I give Anaheim's cap situation a 9 out of 10. This could change to 10 out of 10, I just haven't analized all 30 teams yet.

The Caps Cap

The Caps are currently sitting at $53,275,126 salary capwise and 20 players signed for next season, that leaves $3,524,874 for 3 roster spots. The players in flux right now are (my Boy) Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Chris Bourque, Milan Jurcina, Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrisonn. I think Morrisonn will be dealt during the offseason for a draft pick of some kind. Fehr, Gordon and Schultz should all sign the QO, that leaves Jurcina who will go to an arbitrator. No big deal, I get it, he's 26 wants to make a little more coin had a pretty year (he looked great when he was paired with Fedorov and Alzner). Juice comes back to us I think at a slightly higher pay level than $900K, my guess $1.3M.We aren't moving Theodore, so say goodbye to Brent Johnson.

The Pre-season Battles

Now everybody is in camp and ready to go. It is extremely unlikely we get the 2nd line C through a trade, so we start camp with Laich and Nylander battling for that spot. Laich is safe cause if he losses the battle there is W spot for him on the 3rd line and we all win because it means Nylander isn't going to be waste of money in a suit in the press box. Unfortunately, my prediction is that Nylander doesn't win the battle and is a waste of money sitting the press booth. Knuble is going to be the 1st line RW going into the season, I do not see Fehr being ready to start and Clark will probably be 3rd line RW. Theodore will get every opportunity this season to start, EVERY opportunity, Varlamov will get 2 out 7 starts, why? We had 108 points last season with Theodore in net, the regular season, unless something catastrophic happens, is almost a given. Most importantly he has a movable contract come trade deadline time. As for the defense Green, Poti, Pothier, Erskine, Alzner, Carlson, Schultz and Jurcina will be battling for 6 game day spots and 2 press box spots. I think there will be a lot of shuffling of the last 4 players of this group this season. Hopefully, Alzner shines and makes it impossible for the coaching staff to press box or Hershey him.

Day 1 Lineup

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble - Duh. This will probably be the best line in the league this year.

Fleichmann, Laich, Semin - Its not thrilling but it will be effective imo.

Bourque, Steckel, Clark - For now, until Fehr is ready.

Beagle, Gordon, Bradley - I wouldn't mind seeing Erskine play LW at times to free up a D spot.

Green, Schultz - Not positive Schultz is here but I think he's fine

Poti, Jurcina - They will see a lot of 1st liners

Alzner, Pothier - Not a bad 3rd pairing.

Theodore, Varlamov - Theodore will get 65% of the starts even he has a .900sv% and 2.90GAA

The Season

Can't predict this, but will be in first place, maybe comfortably, by the trade deadline.

The Trade Deadline

Here is where the fun really begins. We have zero Cap room or very little I should say. This will be sad to some (including me), but I think we move Semin here, why? He is our biggest asset hands down, and to resign him will cost us $6.5 to $7.0 per year, and I have a feeling he may head to the KHL and become their most expensive player. What can trading Semin do for us? A lot. Frees up cap space and can bring us a 2nd line C of note and a draft pick or two. The way I see it will Knuble/Fehr/2nd line C of note/a couple of draft picks be better than Semin/Kozlov? YES. Move Laich to 3rd line LW, where he belongs. Maybe a Pierre Marc-Bouchard (his bother)? Especially if Saku Koivu ends up in MIN. Theodore could also be moved for a draft pick. Then after dumping all this cash, resign Backstrom to a 10 yr deal. If we do move Theodore, get a Manny Legace/Brent Johnson type to back up Varly. Doing this saves us $3M a year or not getting anything in return for Semin.

Post Trade Deadline Line up

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble - Duh

Fleischmann, Marc-Bouchard, Fehr

Laich, Steckel, Clark/Bourque

Beagle/Bourque, Gordon, Bradley/Clark

Defense is the same.

This is purely for fun. This is for all the armchair GM's out there who think they can build a team. So here is your chance, I need 4 lines, 4 RW's, 4 C's, 4 LW's, 6 Defensemen, 2 Goalies and 3 other players (non-goalies) to complete your roster. Obviously use current salaries of players, http://www.capgeek.com is a great resource. If the player is a current RFA add 10% to last years salary and if we are talking about a UFA, then it will be up to the masses to agree on the new terms, luckily there arent many UFA's getting substancial raises.

Here is my team...

1st Line

LW Zack Parise - $3.125M | C Ryan Getzlaf - $5.325M | RW Patrick Kane - $3.725M = $12.175M

2nd Line

LW Ray Whitney - $3.55M | C Nicklas Backstrom - $2.4M | RW Johan Franzen - $3.955M = $9.905M

3rd Line

LW Brooks Laich - $2.067M | C Ryan Kesler - $1.75M | RW Bobby Ryan - $1.922M = $5.739M

4th Line

LW Loui Eriksson $1.6M | C Bryan Little - $0.900M | RW Devin Setoguchi - $1.247M = $3.747M

Defensive Pairing 1

Mike Green - $5.25M | Kevin Bieska - $3.75M = $9.0M

Defensive Pairing 2

Duncan Keith - $1.475M | Mark Streit - $4.1M = $5.575M

Defensive Pairing 3

Luke Schenn - $2.975M | Mark Staal - $0.827M = $3.802M

Goalies |

Cam Ward - $2.67M | Steve Mason - $0.905M = $3.575M

Other 3

LW David Perron - $0.918M | LW Milan Lucic - $0.850M | D Kris LeTang - $0.835 = $2.603

TOTAL = $56.121M

Leftover = $0.679

Ryan Clowe is exactly the young power RW the Caps need. San Jose is offering him up, I dont know about everyone else but he'd look great on the 1st line.


"One name that has suddenly popped up on the trade front is Ryane Clowe of the San Jose Sharks. The power winger is a restricted free agent July 1, and two NHL GMs told ESPN.com Clowe is available. "

-according to LeBrun on ESPN.