SB Nation User Blog: Jaceman

Okafor for Chandler almost done

Jaceman — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 16:00:27 -0000

Okafor for Chandler almost done

Hornets and Bobcats are almost done finalizing the deal that will swap centers Emeka Okafor and Tyson Chandler.

To me it's kind of a wash, but the more I look at him, the more I realize that Emeka Okafor is exactly the type of big man I wish we had for Timmy to develop.

Edit: It's official

Introducing Your New Backup PG

Jaceman — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:12:41 -0000

So, I live in the Bay Area, and about 75% of the people around me are GSW fans, so needless to say, I've heard a lot about Mickael Pietrus, I've heard a lot about Matt Barnes, and I've heard a lot about C.J. Watson. I would say that prior to now, Watson was something of an unknown to the rest of the league, he and Kelenna Azubuike are considered by many Warriors fans to be the D-League gems that have made it successfully in the NBA. While he's new, I'd still like to make a case that C.J. Watson, not Anthony Johnson should shoulder the bulk of the backup PG minutes.

via l.yimg.com

FIGHT!

Just kidding. Let's take a look at the preliminaries first though:

Anthony Johnson 34 years old (35 in October), 6-3, 195 lbs

C.J. Watson 25 years old, 6-2, 176 lbs

Initially the disparity lies in that while Watson is younger, he is also smaller than Johnson. While nearly 20 lbs is a fairly significant amount of weight, 10 years is also a majorly significant amount of time. Now, I'm going to mix it up a little, so as not to have any bias, I'm going to make both players anonymous, let's take a look at the base stats:

Player A (2008-2009) per game

PPG: 9.5 RPG: 2.5 APG: 2.7 SPG: 1.0 BPG: 0.0 TO: 1.0 FG%: 45.3 3PM: 0.6 3PT%: 40.0 MPG: 24:30

Player B (2008-2009) per game

PPG: 5.3 RPG: 1.8 APG: 2.5 SPG: 0.6 BPG: 0.0 TO: 1.0 FG%: 40.4 3PM: 0.7 3PT%: 39.1 MPG: 18:30

Hm... well, on a pergame basis you note that Player A does get a whole extra 6 minutes (1/2 a quarter) of play than Player B, which accounts for the scoring. However, Player A also exhibits higher percentages while maintaining the same assist/TO ratio. That definitely pushes the favor to Player A. Well, per games don't always tell us everything, so let's look at some more numbers:

Player A (2008-2009) per 36 minutes

PPG: 14.0 RPG: 3.7 APG: 3.9 SPG: 1.8 BPG: 0.1 TO: 1.8 3PM: 0.9 TS%: 56.4 eFG%: 50.0

Player B (2008-2009) per 36 minutes

PPG: 10.2 RPG: 3.6 APG: 4.9 SPG: 1.1 BPG: 0.1 TO: 2.0 3PM: 1.3 TS%: 50.5 eFG%: 47.2

To be honest it's a pretty even wash, but it favors Player A just slightly. The main basis that I like Player A more is just that he's more efficient about how he gets his points, his true shooting percentage is higher, though not incredibly significantly.

As many of you may have already guessed, Player A is CJ Watson, Player B is Anthony Johnson. If all stats are a wash, my argument is to still play the younger guy, simply because there's more upside. If you take a look at Watson's DraftExpress profile then you'll note that he's an above average defender at the point position, which means that you won't lose a whole lot defensively (which is what got the Magic to the Finals) when Nelson steps off. In all respects, he actually plays kind of like a poor man's Jameer Nelson, at least from what I see. I could be off, but I'm all for him moving in front of Johnson on the depth charts.

The Roster, The Needs, The Possibilities

Jaceman — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 17:00:36 -0000

As many people are prone to point out, two things happened with the essential swap of Vince Carter for Hedo Turkoglu: the Magic got a better closer and they also got a heck of a lot thinner. Essentially, in picking up an All-Star caliber (albeit an older one) shooting guard and a young power forward, the Magic gave up a point guard, a shooting guard, a power forward, and lost a small forward to free agency. Word on the street has Marcin Gortat agreeing to terms with the Dallas Mavericks, and I don't know if Orlando would be so inclined to match. I'm not sure why they wouldn't, but then again, you could probably get a backup center for pretty cheap. Anyways, as some are inclined to point out, the Orlando roster as of today, currently looks like this:

PG - Jameer Nelson, Anthony Johnson

SG - Vince Carter, J.J. Redick

SF - Mickael Pietrus

PF - Rashard Lewis, Ryan Anderson

C - Dwight Howard

So the immediate needs that jump out are the need for a backup center that can support Dwight Howard, but also some depth at the small forward slot. If I'm not mistaken (correct me if I am) Magic still have their MLE, the BAE, and veteran's minimum to work with.

As a tertiary issue, the possibility of upgrading the depth of the backcourt is a possibility as well. However, the two primary issues are depth at the SF and C positions.

Let's address the SF issue first. I see two possible solutions for this, and I'm fairly ambivalent as to how the Magic go about doing this. Realistically, from free agency alone, either the Magic will likely have the best shot finding some sort of backup wing player to spell minutes behind Mickael Pietrus. Someone relatively cheap and can be effective in limited minutes. Off the free agent list, names that intrigue me include: Marquis Daniels, Matt Barnes, Grant Hill, and Jamario Moon. There is the possibility of landing starting talent to play in front of Pietrus, but somehow I doubt that talent would fall for the MLE, therefore, I've left names like Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom, and Marvin Williams off the list.

The second possible solution is finding a starting caliber power forward and sliding Rashard Lewis back to his natural position at SF. There seem to be a number of free agents available, and a lot of them are probably getting overlooked or are old enough to be cheap but still serviceable enough to warrant a starting spot. This provides a more traditional lineup and would add a big body and another rebounder next to Howard. Again, I believe names like Lamar Odom and David Lee to be fairly unrealistic, so people I can think of would be like Antonio McDyess, Drew Gooden, Joe Smith, or even Chris Wilcox. I'm not a huge fan of the undersized power forward, but if it's in limited minutes, meaning that SVG still will play largely a lineup of Nelson, Carter, Pietrus, Lewis, and Howard, then they become a possibility, so I would also keep in mind names like Leon Powe and Brandon Bass.

In terms of a backup center, I believe that a number could be had for the BAE or the vet's minimum. Given Howard's durability, he certainly wouldn't need a lot of minutes. Perhaps someone like Brian Skinner, Rasho Nesterovic, Zaza Pachulia, or Chris Mihm.

I had emailed Ben Q about this a little while ago, and just wanted to hear everyone here's take on it. Thanks for the input!

Poll

How should Magic address their roster needs over the summer?

Sign a backup SF behind Pietrus

25 votes

Sign an older starting PF for cheap and slide Lewis back to SF

79 votes

Find a new starting SF

35 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

Maybe I just like to speculate on trades...

Jaceman — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:17:26 -0000

I think the Spurs still have a number of assets left, beyond looking to the free agency for a big. Okay, so they don't really have a whole lot to offer to teams except maybe some expiring contracts and the stuff, but nonetheless, it's better than nothing. I believe that for whatever the Spurs do end up giving up, it's easier to find a wing in free agency than it is to find a big, especially given the list of bigs that I've seen in free agency. More elaboration after the jump.

Okay, so what do the Spurs have left to trade? Well, since Michael Finley has opted in, we have Finley's $2.5 million contract, Matt Bonner at about $2.98 million, and Roger Mason Jr at $3.5 million. Now, I believe half of the Spurs fanbase is probably getting ready to stone me or something for wanting to trade Mason, who was so clutch last season, but in all honesty, I believe that the 11.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, with 2 threes on 42.5% shooting and 42.1% from beyond the arc, for the most part can be replicated effectively enough via the free agency and/or even D-League more easily than the greater need of a effective big be addressed via the current free agency.

First, let's look at the likely frontcourt rotation on the Spurs as is:

PF - Matt Bonner, Dejuan Blair, (maybe James Gist?)

C - Tim Duncan, Ian Mahinmi

Now when we consider that this year's free agency is lush with undersized banging power forwards, we can begin by eliminating a number of names because they just simply don't add what the Spurs need next to Duncan. If we look at the years of past success with the Spurs we see that paired with Duncan have been a perimeter oriented David Robinson, Rasho Nesterovic, and Fabricio Oberto. What they all have in common is that they can hit the mid-range with regularity and therefore spread the floor for Duncan to operate in the low block. I still hold that Spurs success will still have Duncan operating on the low block, not as the perimeter oriented big, I don't think that relegating Duncan to a David West-type mid-range shooting big will be effective. Furthermore, what all three of the previously mentioned centers had in common were that they were effective in defending opposing centers in the pivot as well. Now let's look at the free agents available:

Let me first start by eliminating David Lee and Paul Millsap as they will easily run for much more than the Spurs can afford, and even should the Spurs be able to throw something at them, it wouldn't be for any amount that New York or Utah cannot easily offer. Let's throw Lamar Odom into this category.

Also, I'd like to eliminate Leon Powe and Brandon Bass, as they fit the undersized power forward mold, which is suited as a backup to Duncan, however, I'd sooner take my chances with Blair and Gist than add a redundant player.

I'm going to eliminate Marcin Gortat, Chris Andersen, Chris Wilcox, and Zaza Pachulia on the basis of their skill, or lack thereof. Of the three, I would only take Gortat, but he hasn't really shown a penchant for a mid-range game. Therefore, I wouldn't really be keen on taking him, since he would push Duncan out of the paint on the offense. He also runs the possibility of being too expensive for the Spurs.

Continuing on, I want to eliminate from consideration Drew Gooden and Charlie Villanueva. While they do add the skills needed, are enormous liabilities on defense, not something the Spurs want. Obviously Gooden last season produced, but didn't really fit well with the team, Villanueva I see as a similar type of player.

Who does that leave? Well the obivous answer is Rasheed Wallace, but also Antonio McDyess and Rasho Nesterovic, maybe Joe Smith, possibly Anderson Varejao (who I think will end up being way more expensive than he's worth). As I said, there really isn't a whole lot to be had in terms of bigs in the free agency.

With that, I would personally think to move Mason, Bonner, and/or Finley, a combined salary of about $9 million, somewhere for some big. Naturally, Mason would probably be the biggest selling point, and after that the fact that all three are expiring contracts. The question is what teams are looking to move bigs, either for a need or to cut costs, and which ones fit within the system. Therefore, it's a question of what's realistic.

I think it's unrealistic that the Spurs somehow land Mehmet Okur should he opt out because he'll be commanding much more than the MLE, additionally, should he stay, I don't think are that desperate to cut costs (and possibly retain Millsap) to run a 3-for-1 (Mason, Bonner, and Finley for Okur), if it does happen, then RC Buford is the most amazing GM ever.

Another possibility, considering their glut of bigs and the promise to be had in DeAndre Jordan, is to run a 3-for-1 for Marcus Camby. While he's not a stalwart in post defense, he does add a shot blocking presence, and has a decent mid-range jumper, and is serviceable enough for me to consider having met our needs. He's not a 3 point threat like Wallace, but hey, I'm not going to get picky, neither was Rasho or Fab.

I'm not sure where the Wizards are moving as they appear to be cost cutting but also trying to contend at the same time, but if JeVale McGee is really the future, perhaps Andray Blatche for 2 of the 3. However, given that they just moved Etan Thomas and Darius Songaila that might not be as big a possibility as I thought.

Finally, one last player I've thought long and hard about, is Jeff Foster. Roy Hibbert is obviously the Pacers' center of the future, so the question is, are the Pacers trying to be players in 2010? Are they trying to cut costs? More than any need for players like Mason, Finley, or Bonner.

Afterwards, there are a number of off guards that can step into the starting role to be had at the MLE or less after trading for a big. Immediately, Marquis Daniels and Josh Childress come to mind. Furthermore perusal of the free agent list brings up names like: Flip Murray, Gerald Green, Dahntay Jones, Von Wafer, Fred Jones, Damien Wilkins if he opts out (though I don't know why he would), and Anthony Parker.

Granted there might not be many takers for a trio of expiring contracts featuring the shooting talents of Roger Mason Jr, but hey, I think it's easier to land the kind of talent the Spurs are looking for, especially since there isn't a whole lot of it in the free agency. Involve a third team if necessary, but I think that there are significantly more possibilities this way, it's always easier to find a wing player than a big, so why limit the list of bigs to the free agency?

Dun, dun dun...

Jaceman — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 15:19:52 -0000

This might be looking a little far ahead, but it couldn't help but catch my attention:

"After today there's no way he can play," said Rivers, who left open the possibility his star could return at some point in the postseason but was not optimistic.
An NBA source confirmed to the Globe this morning that Garnett was only about 70 percent healed from the knee injury, which occured during a Feb. 19 game in Utah, and that the Celtics All-Star would likely miss the entire postseason.

Whole article here.

Chance!

Though I do hope KG gets better.

15 wing players I wouldn't mind seeing in a Spurs uniform next season...

Jaceman — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 20:28:28 -0000

Our wings currently consist of Roger Mason Jr, Michael Finley, Ime Udoka, and Bruce Bowen. Even if Manu did come back healthy next season, it's undeniable that we need a serious upgrade. I'm not expecting to get a superstar like LeBron or Kobe or Paul Pierce or Caron Butler or such, no franchise cornerstone type players, or rather, untouchables. I also don't want bloated contracts like Richard Jefferson or Andrei Kirilenko. This person needs to be someone that can play with the Big 3, and doesn't need the ball. Plays solid defense. Also able to hit the 3 fairly consistently, and young(-ish). At least younger than Finley (36) and Bowen (37), which isn't hard to find, preferably younger than Mason (28), but we can make exceptions. Also able to create his own shot. Again, reasonably priced probably nothing significantly greater than an MLE.

In no particular order:

1.) Marvin Williams

2.) Josh Childress

3.) Walter Herrmann

4.) Marquis Daniels

5.) Ron Artest

6.) Kelenna Azubuike

7.) Travis Outlaw

8.) Matt Barnes

9.) Wilson Chandler

10.) Rudy Gay

11.) Damien Wilkins

12.) Jared Dudley

13.) Luc-Richard Mbah-a-Moute

14.) Joe Alexander

15.) Trevor Ariza

Those are my picks (again, in no particular order). What're yours? (or what do you think?)

The Spurs Have a Need...

Jaceman — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 15:49:12 -0000

It's great in all to say how our wings are pretty crappy, which they are. I mean, yeah, I like the Roger Mason signing, I like the George Hill draft, but tack onto that Michael Finley (please don't take your player option), Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka, and Jacque Vaughn, it's pretty hurting. Hill is still a project, Mason, well, Mason is a shooter. Yes, it'd be nice if we could get a finisher/creator, he doesn't need to create for others, he just needs to do his job, get to the rim and score. It'd be nice if in this offseason we could get one of Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Marquis Daniels, or Walter Herrmann (or Ron Artest?), somewhat realistically speaking. Unrealistically speaking, it'd be nice if we could get Kobe or Hedo to opt out and sign with us, if we could nab Trevor Ariza from the Lakers. I trust Pop and the front office will deal with that somehow, I really do. Yes, the Spurs could also use an upgrade at the PF/C to play next to Tim Duncan. Yes, I would love to sign Rasheed Wallace and make another run, yes, it would be a dream if Mehmet Okur decided to opt out and sign with us, yes, to a lesser extent that Zydrunas Ilgauskas opts out and signs with us. I think you get the point. However, here's what I think the Spurs really need:

The Spurs need Tim Duncan to become the David Robinson to the next Tim Duncan.

I think that last sentence might have been kind of confusing. I had to think about it a couple of times before I was sure I got it right. No, there will never be another Tim Duncan, no, there will never be another David Robinson. I'm not expecting some rookie to waltz in and average 24.9 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.7 steals, and 3.9 blocks per game (David Robinson, in his rookie year). I'm also not asking anyone to have career low averages of no less than 18.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game across 12 seasons (Tim Duncan). For most bigs, either one of those lines would probably signify a career season or close to it.

It's nice to hope for the Mehmet Okurs and the Rasheed Wallaces in hopes of landing Timmy his 5th ring before he retires, but, also, the Spurs need to look to the future. Maybe they start building around Tony Parker, maybe they draft some young stud in the wings. Maybe they somehow land LeBron. All that aside, I think it's high time Timmy takes someone under his wing. Will it be Ian Mahinmi? Maybe Anthony Tolliver? Maybe finally Tiago Splitter comes to the states? I don't know. I'm not resting my hopes on getting the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge or something (Portland probably won't trade him for anything short of Tony Parker). Al Jefferson I think is another pipe dream. However, regardless of who it is, what form he takes, Tim Duncan is too good of a player and character to not have mentoring someone the Spurs see in their future. Spurs have never been a place where it's been a slapdash of stars thrown together via trades, while they pick and choose their role players, the Spurs have always stood fast on the same franchise centerpiece for the duration of his career (see Tim Duncan, David Robinson).

I don't see the Spurs changing that course of direction now, and quite frankly, I don't think I'd be as big of a fan if they weren't the type of organization for the Tim Duncans and the David Robinsons. While I'd love to have a Rudy Gay type talent on the roster, I hope that Pop and the front office of the Spurs organization find some way to raise up the future leaders of the team. Duncan is a future hall-of-famer, he needs to leave his mark in the future. I'm not going to say David Robinson made Duncan into who he is today, but I'm sure he played a big role in bringing him along. I'd imagine it helps having one of the greatest players of the previous era guiding your steps. Robinson made his mark on the Spurs today through that. The Spurs need to find someone for Duncan to mold and mentor. They need Duncan to make his mark on the organization, more so than just another banner in the rafters, more so than just having his number 21 jersey retired. The next guy will have his own flavor, his own style, but still, Timmy is just one resource you can't waste in terms of developing the next young big in the franchise.

Chance For The Finals, Possibly Championship: Any Takers?

Jaceman — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:55:44 -0000

I'm 100% serious here, I like the Magic coming out of the East, in fact, I'm picking them to go at least to the Finals, with a shot at winning it all. Really. Without Jameer Nelson, that's right. While depth continues to be an issue, I don't know that it'll be as big of a problem as some might consider.

If the playoffs were to start today the Eastern Conference would look something like this:

Round 1:

Cleveland v Chicago

Boston v Detroit

Orlando v Miami

Atlanta v Philadelphia

Round 2 (my predictions):

Cleveland v Atlanta

Boston v Orlando

Eastern Conference Finals

Cleveland v Orlando

That's something along the lines of how it will go. I think that Orlando firstly will have a fairly easy time with Miami, if Philly falls to 6 they'll have a fairly easy time with Philly. Should Orlando clamber to 2nd over Boston, then Detroit would be a harder matchup, or rather, a bigger unknown. If they keep playing as they have been, they're a quick and easy out in the first round. As stated previously by many, Magic actually matchup pretty favorably against the Cavs on the basis that LeBron James doesn't really like driving against Dwight Howard. Not to say that means Orlando is a surefire win against the Cavs should they meet in a 7 game series, but definitely, it shouldn't be too surprising should they squeak out a win.

So the biggest question then ends up being the Boston matchup. If Orlando can make it past Boston, then I say they have a 50/50 shot of making the Finals. Some have already speculated that Kevin Garnett's knee problem may be like last year's Andrew Bynum injury. Which if it is definitely gives the Magic a huge edge over the Celtics. While they don't have Jameer, Magic do still have Turk, Lewis, and Howard who at the very least get decent looks from the offense as dictated by Rafer Alston. I actually think that Boston, on the other hand, is a much worse team than they were last year. The loss of Posey and Brown definitely hurt them, even were they all healthy, Marbury + Moore + Tony Allen really isn't up to par with Cassell + Brown + Posey. I'm gonna say that Boston doesn't make the Finals this year, so if they beat the Magic, LeBron's going to the Finals again.

I definitely think losing Jameer hurt them, but still, I believe the Magic to be very, very serious contenders.

Atlanta Hawks' Offseason...

Jaceman — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:05:44 -0000

So I was going through the free agent list and I realized that, there are a lot of players from the Hawks that are going to be available via free agency. Granted neither Joe Johnson or Josh Smith fall into that category, but such a large number of players on an already think bench seems somewhat alarming. Who should the Hawks keep?

Mike Bibby is an unrestricted free agent as is Zaza Pachulia and Flip Murray, Marvin Williams, with whom the Hawks failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension will be a restricted free agent. I have to imagine that at the very least, Marvin Williams will garner a certain amount of interest by championship contenders. There are a lot of teams looking for a long wing forward that can hit the three and play defense. A lot of people mentioned that Bibby was also interested in re-signing with the Hawks though, if that's the case, will the Hawks have enough money to improve or at least maintain their current roster?

Poll

Who should the Hawks prioritize trying to keep in the 2009 FA?

Mike Bibby

6 votes

Marvin Williams

16 votes

Zaza Pachulia

0 votes

Flip Murray

3 votes

Other

2 votes

Nobody and try to sign Carlos Boozer

1 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

Pursuit of... a point guard?

Jaceman — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 01:34:58 -0000

I'm sure everyone's tuned into the last half of the season, seeing the Blazers succeed and win a playoff spot would be great, but of course we have to look forward too. I'm sure more than some of the fans out there are somewhat disappointed by Kevin Pritchard's failure to move the RLEC (Raef Lafrentz Expiring Contract). Granted from what I saw, there really wasn't anything that was super appealing. Richard Jefferson is not $9.2 million better than Travis Outlaw, and the presence of homeboy Luke Ridnour will do nothing except stunt the growth of Jerryd Bayless. Honestly, Steve Blake and Steve Blake 2.0 isn't a stronger backcourt than Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless. There was another murmuring of landing Andre Miller, but at the cost of Jerryd Bayless, and I'm pretty sure the Blazers weren't going to mortgage their future (possibly) PG for the sake of half a season of Andre Miller plus maybe a second round exit. As good as Andre Miller is, he wouldn't have taken the Blazers over the top. So since the trade deadline is over, the Blazers really can't do much with their roster, except wait until the summer...

In the summer of 2009, RLEC becomes less money on the payroll, Channing Frye becomes an restricted free-agent (and I don't see them matching anything anyone, if anyone, will throw at him), and Blazers fans curse the Memphis Grizzlies for signing and playing Darius Miles. So what to do? The free agency list isn't exactly brimming with talent. The best small forward available would likely be Hedo Turkoglu should he opt out, and while he'd be great on the Blazers, I'm not sure Kevin Pritchard would be inclined to pay a 30 year old a 5 year $50 million contract, which would probably be something he'd be asking for. In terms of PG, there are a lot of veteran names out there, so here's my advice to KP, if he can pull it off.

Sign Jason Kidd to a cheap 2 year contract, trade Sergio Rodruiguez, Outlaw, and Blake for an SF (if possible).

Before everyone starts yelling at how Kidd is over the hill, a huge defensive liability, hear me out. As bad as Kidd has gotten, he's still Jason Kidd, he's still a great floor leader that can run a great offense. Certainly, it might be tough given that Blazers play such a slow game, and Kidd's offense isn't that geared towards a 1/2 court offense (in which case maybe Andre Miiller or Mike Bibby would be better), however, it'd be a great development opportunity for Jerryd Bayless to play with one of the greatest PGs in the league, even if he is running out of gas. The offense honestly would still be based around Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, in fact, I think Kidd will be able to get them better shots. It doesn't hurt that he's a great rebounding guard too, still one of the best (6.2 per game). If you can get him for a reasonable amount, say a little over an MLE for 2 seasons, then I think that'd be a huge growing opportunity for Bayless and really enable him to develop into the PG that I think would help the Blazers the most.

Just my take, I think offseason 2009 could be huge for Blazers.