SB Nation User Blog: JagsCub

Path to the Playoffs "Prediction Edition"

JagsCub — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:20:31 -0000

Here we are in the month of December, and all is well in Big Cat Country! Instead of dreaming of sugarplums, chestnuts roasting on an open fire, a Victory Hammer in my driveway...Sorry! That's my dream...we the fans of our beloved Jaguars are dreaming of a #5 or #6 seed in the 2009 NFL playoffs! What a dream it is!

I for one didn't expect much of this season. I and many of you only expected our team to be competetive, and show some improvement over last year. In 08 we were out of it early. In 09 we are in the hunt for a playoff berth, and looking to prove that we are worthy of discussion not only nationally, but locally as well.

JDR has shown that he is moving the team in the right direction, and is looking like he will be kept on in the future. Love it or Hate it. That's the facts. This is a young team, and making the playoffs with such a high turnover in our roster from last year would put JDR in the discussion for Coach of the Year. I'm not saying that he's a "Great" coach, but it is worth noting. The "GREAT" will come with consistently winning. Now on to the predicitons.

As of right now, If the season were to end, we would be the #6 seed. I know you've all seen this before, so please bear with me.

Current Division leaders:

AFC North: Cinncinatti Bengals (9-3)

AFC East: New England Patriots (7-5)

AFC West: San Diego Chargers(9-3)

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts (12-0)

Current Wild Card leaders:

Denver Broncos (8-4)

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)

In the hunt:

Balitmore Ravens (6-6)

Miami Dolphins (6-6)

New York Jets (6-6)

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7)

With 4 weeks left in the season, there is still alot of football to be played. There are still 2 divisions that are up in the air, and atleast 5 teams alive for the final Wild Card spot. Here are my predictions for the Divisional Champions.

AFC North: Cinncinatti Bengals

Remaining schedule: at Minnesota (L), at San Diego (L), K.C. (W), at Jets (w)

Final Record: 11-5 Seeding: #3

AFC East: Miami Dolphins

Remaining schedule: at Jacksonville (L), at Tennessee (W), Houston (W), Pittsburgh (W)

Final Record: 9-7 Seeding #4

AFC West: San Diego Chargers

Remaining schedule: at Dallas (W), Cinncinatti (W), at Tennessee (W), Washington (L)

Final Record: 12-4 Seeding #2

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

Remaining Schedule: Denver (W), at Jacksonville (L), Jets (W), at Buffalo (W)

Final Record: 15-1 Seeding #1

Now, some of you are looking at the AFC East prediction, and are scratching your heads. The reason I have Miami winning the division is for a number of reasons. 1. With Chad Henne at the helm as a full time starter, the Dolphins are learning to win without Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat. 2. The Patriots look old, and their Defense looks lost. 3. The idea that "Bill is God, and we do what he says with no questions asked" has been lost on the new personel that the Pats have brought in. With the loss of Vrabel, Bruschi, and Seymour comes a loss in team leadership, and the idea that the players police themselves. With Adalius Thomas questioning the coach, and others texting Seymour about how much they need him back, it's not all it seems in Pats country. Bill Belichick is starting to see his team unravel into disarray, and it looks like MUTINY! I see the Pats fading, and the Dolphins coming on strong over the next 4 weeks.

The AFC West although only separated by 1 game this divison will go to the Chargers. They are playing their best ball right now, and have won 7 straight. Rivers is on fire, and wothy of MVP talk along with Manning, Favre, and Brees. By beating the Bengals, the Chargers will own the head to head and rest players the last game of the season, and cruise into the bye week with the #2 seed.

The AFC North has been decided, but the Bengals will secure a home field playoff game in the Wild Card round. If the Jaguars finish as I have predicted then this is where we wil play the first week of the playoffs.

The AFC South is ruled once again by the much hated Colts. That being said...with a win this week the Colts lock up home field throughout the playoffs, and rest most of their starters on December 17 against the Jaguars. With a loss against the Broncos then we will see Manning and company as they try to shore up home field. However, I believe they win this week, and we will knock them from the perch of the undefeateds, and remain in the hunt for the #6 seed.

Now for the Wild Card spots:

AFC Wild Card :

Denver Broncos

Remaining Schedule: at Indianapolis (L), Oakland (W), at Philadelphia (L), Kansas City (W)

Final Record: 10-6 Seeding #6

Jacksonville Jaguars

Remaining schedule: Miami (W), Indianapolis (W), at New England (W), at Cleveland (L)

Final Record: 10-6 Seeding #5

New England Patriots

Remaining Schedule: Carolina (L), at Buffalo (W), Jacksonville (L), at Houston (L)

Final Record: 8-8 Miss Playoffs for 2nd year in a row. Time to rebuild the Defense.

Balitmore Ravens

Remaining Schedule: Detroit (W), Chicago (W), at Pittsburgh (L), at Oakland (L)

Final Record: 8-8 Offense is improving, but just not enough.

New York Jets

Remaining schedule: at Tampa Bay (W), Atlanta (L), at Indianapolis (L), Cinncinatti (L)

Final Record: 7-9 Mark Sanchez is their future.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Remaining schedule: Green Bay (L), Balitmore (W), at Miami (L)

Final Record: 7-9 They could get in, but would need alot of help. I say stick a fork in them. It's time to rebuild both lines.

This scenario is based on the Jaguars having a better AFC record since there is no head to head match up here. The Jags would finish with a 9-3 Conference record and the Broncos would be 8-4 in the Conference. So, there you have it sports fans. I'm not sure how outlandish you think these predictions are, but feel free to comment and give you predictions.

[The outcome was originally for the Jags to be the 6th seed, but due to an error that has been pointed out, it has changed to the 5th seed.]

Jacksonville and the Media: "You betta ask somebody!"

JagsCub — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:23:13 -0000

I woke up at 4:30am this morning to start my normal day. I began to ponder what it would take for the Jaguars to earn the respect of the town in which they play, let alone the national media. It's easy to cast stones from afar, since I live in Pennsyltucky (read: rural Pennsylvania) , where to get into a bar, it requires a 3 tooth minimum. However, I guess you can say that it is hard to comprehend the fact that this team is doing better than most have ever dreamed of, and still has not warranted a curious glance from its own hometown.

With the off season came numerous changes that has caused a ripple effect in a league where the Jaguars were not given any consideration to make the playoffs. Yet, here we are in the thick of the hunt, and no one's paying attention. To be honest, I LIKE IT! What I don't like is the continued disinterest from the town of Jacksonville. Now don't get your panties in a bunch because blackouts are not the subject of this post. We've all heard it before, and there is no need to continue kicking a dead horse.

Those changes have not only been limited to the off-season, but during the season, and even as recently as last week. The pick up of Torry Holt has dramatically changed the face of our receiving corps, and the addition of Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard, Nate Hughes, and Zach Miller have helped the Jags to see an extraordinary return on investment. Marcedes Lewis has emerged nicely into what was foreseen of him coming out of college, and Mike Sims-Walker has exploded onto the scene. One could say that with Tiquan Underwood on the practice squad, and the group we've got this year, that our WR's are no longer a problem.

Continuing with the offensive theme, we have seen our OL improve immensely as well. LT Eugene Monroe has cemented his role on the line, and the addition of RT Eben Britton has been nothing short of spectacular. The middle of the line has left much to be desired as of late, but again, this really is a year in which we are rebuilding. Did you get that!? We're REBUILDING! By looking at our record, it does not look like rebuilding, but by watching the games (which not many are) it is definitely rebuilding!

Now for the D! With the addition of Dereck Cox at CB many questioned why would we trade next year's 2nd to take a no-name player in the 3rd this year. Well, needless to say, Gene Smith knows what he's doing. Cox's play has been very good, and this past week showed how well he has progressed since the beginning of the season. You may say that he got burned last week against Andre Johnson for a 53 yd bomb. I say look again, and the tape shows Reggie Nelson giving top side help. Johnson runs right by Nelson which is not supposed to happen when you bracket a receiver.

"Terrance meat Byron, Byron meet Terrance! We call him 'Pot Roast'; he likes his meat and potatoes."

Then there's the Roast in the Pot. That's right! Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton. What a find in the 3rd round! He has brought such an impact to the DL that Big Hen has started to look like his old self. Derick Harvey has been constantly disruptive, and although he was not listed as getting a sack until last Sunday, he has looked very good! Quentin Groves...not so much. Although I will say that Q looked very good this past Sunday, and it seems that his time in the film room is starting to show some dividends. Let's hope for continued success.

The LB corps started out average at the beginning of the season, but since the shift in defensive philosophy to a strict 4-3, they have been on fire! We have not allowed a 100 yd rusher since the Tenn debacle. With big bodies up front it allows our LB's to do what they do best! Pursue and HIT! With the addition of Russell Allen and Brian Iwuh filling in when Justin Durant was out. Our LB's are looking very good!

The DB's have of late been spectacular. Sean Considine has been a heckuva pick up from the Philadelphia Eagles. Tyronne Brackenridge, and Gerald Alexander have been great as well! The hit Gerald Alexander put on the Texans Alexander was vicious, and reminded me of when Donovan Darius roamed our backfield. In other words, cross the middle if you dare, but know you will get hit! Reggie Nelson has left much to be desired this season, but is playing well enough to keep his job.

Now, I don't expect to get any respect from the national media. How can we? We have been the bane of the NFL's existence with all of the blackouts, and no-name players that have been mentioned in this post. However, there was a time when the Jaguars had a bunch of no-name players, and went on to Denver, and shocked the would be Superbowl Champions. They were the #1 seed in the AFC, and looked to win handily. But, towards the end of the game Jimmy Smith ran a fade pattern to the corner of the endzone, and Mark Brunnell threw a perfect ball as Jimmy caught it to take the lead, and sealed the game making for one of the biggest upsets in playoff history!

Who's to say that same thing can't happen again? I know one thing, the national media is not talking about us, and what's even worse is that our town of Jacksonville isn't either. Some in Jacksonville are probably saying..."Who are the Jaguars?" But, in the immortal words of Jimmy Smith after that spectacular game against the Broncos, he said, "If you don't know, then you betta ask somebody!"

Mike Florio hatin' on Jags once again...

JagsCub — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:30:28 -0000

In Peter King's MMQB this week, Mike Florio takes a jab at our beloved Jags. The NFL is intent on placing a team in the London area within the next ten years. First, by playing multiple games there with possibly 2 next year, and more after that. Second, by selecting a team to play there annually, which would allow the NFL to develop a following for that team. If all goes well, then there could be a permanent team established there.

This past weekend Roger Goodell had much to say about the possibilities that exist in Europe. With the Jags current inability to fill their stadium on a regular basis... it is concievable to think that the Jags could be picked to play there annually.

I believe that if the front office can continue on a path that would turn this franchise around then I don't think that the Jags will be a candidate. I say this because since Gene Smith has taken over things are changing. I'm not opposed to the Jags traveing over the big pond to play, but not on a consistent basis. Furthermore, I would not like to see the franchise lose out on a possible sell out at home because the game is in London. I would hope that within the next 3-5 years that all of this is behind us, and we're sitting pretty in the Florida sunshine.

I don't think the Jaguars are going ANYWHERE!!!

JagsCub — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:17:49 -0000

According to Fannation.com this post may shed some light on the future of our beloved Jags. With impending deals soon to expire this looks to be a more likely scenario. This team is the JACKSONVILLE Jaguars, and when Wayne Weaver says he's committed to this town, I believe him!

Furthermore, I think it is reasonable to believe that the Raiders are a more likely scenario for LA. With Al Davis living on borrowed time, and all the wackiness that has come from that franchise, I think Al may get out while he can (doubt it) or the NFL could pull an MLB and force him out al la Marge Schott. With Ed Roski, Jr. wanting a stake in a franchise, and the financing to go with it, this would benefit the fans of LA and the NFL in regards to protecting the brand/shield.

Also, with the Chargers still in a stadium deal it would cost them alot of money to break their lease. If it's going to cost them $25 million to get out of their current deal...I can't imagine what the Jags would have to pay to get out of theirs. Especially with 15 years left on the deal! Leases are made to be broken, but it depends on what kind of monetary hit you're willing to take to pull the trigger on that kind of deal.

With our current team sitting at 3-3, and a favorable schedule ahead of us...we could be witness to a remarkable turn around within a very short time. By no means, am I saying we're playoff bound. However, our team is improving, and learning how to win. Fortunate coin toss or not, we won the game when the opportunity presented itself. I firmly believe that if this trend continues then the ticket issue will begin to subside, and we'll be able to show the nation that the NFL can survive in a market such as Jacksonville.

Cox and Underwood sign!!

JagsCub — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:12:56 -0000

Here's to the newest Jags! 3 more to go! With camp 3 days away, and DHB signing with the Oakland Raiders, I believe Monroe will be in camp. There's no excuse for him not to be, especially after Harvey's disastorous hold out. Plus, it would be great to see him against Harvey in the Oklahoma drill, and Vic wants him there as well. Come on Monroe!
http://jaguars.com/news/article.aspx?id=8034

Colts: Moore and Mudd officially retire.

JagsCub — Fri, 15 May 2009 01:54:53 -0000

According to the Indianapolis Star, Moore and Mudd have made their decisions final. What was an amazing coaching tandem for the Indy Colts has finally come to an end, and I for one am not crazy about how all this came about. However, it is time to move on for the Colts, and for the rest of the division to see what kind of continutiy their new OC and OL coach will bring to the table.

With some younger talent on the OL, along with some cagy veterans, time will most certainly tell what will occur in the '10 season. IMO, the key to the OL success starts with Jeff Saturday. He is a 10 year veteran who has been the MAN in the middle for Peyton Manning. No one can discount his ability to make the right calls on the OL.

However, If you look back at the '08 season, Saturday missed the first 3 games of the season with an MCL injury. Saturday opted not to have surgery, and played the rest of the season with a knee brace. Later in the season, Saturday suffered a calf strain. But, when he came back, he stabilized the line, and the Colts began a run that lead them to the playoffs.

What does that mean for us. With the high turnover of coaches on the Colts staff, and the fact that they have some younger OL starting this year... we "may" be wtinesses to the beginning of the end of the dominance that the Colts have had in this division.

Yes, the Titans won the divison last year, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile. The problem with the Titans, is that they have invested in a QB that certainly is not the future, and their future is not their future. VY is the most hyped, overated, arrogant, bench sitting, emotional BIOTCH of a football player to come out of the college ranks. Don't get me wrong, he's a great athlete, but not an NFL QB. Add to that the loss of the most dominant defensive player in the division, and to me that spells disaster. Sorry about the rant.....No I'm not!

Anyhow, where was I, OH.... the Colts. Wtih the new OL coach (Pete Metzelaars) and young starters, I see this as being a potential achilles heel for the Colts. Along with the new OC (Clyde Christensen) change running a close second. I mean We already know they have issues on the DL and LB corps, but with all of the changes (HC, OC, OLC, STC....) it does not bode well. I don't care if you promoting from within. There is going to be a difference in the Colts.

Here's to hoping the Colts fall, and the rise of the Jags.

Cheeers!

JagsCub

Colts: Moore and Mudd may retire.

JagsCub — Thu, 07 May 2009 19:57:45 -0000

Having a healthy disdain for the Colts as a Jags fan... I find myself quite disturbed when it comes to some of the issues that Tom Moore and Howard Mudd are facing these days. Furthermore, it seems that they may not be the only ones effected in the near future, as other teams have coaches that have been in the league coaching for as long, or almost as long, as they have.

Confusion and mistrust over changes in the league's pension program.

Now, don't get me wrong. I don't mind seeing the high turnover in the coaching ranks on a team such as the Colts. However, not like this. It could bode well for us as Jags fans, but it could also turn out to be the bane of our existence. Let's look at who would be the possible replacements for both of these Legendary Coaches.

Tom Moore could be replaced by current WR coach Clyde Christensen. This could be a bumpy transition even though Christensen has been with the team since 2002. I am not sure how good he would be at play calling, but he does know the ins and outs of the offense.

How does this affect the play calling and Manning while under center? It is widely known that Peyton doesn't actually call the plays, but is given the concepts for the next play in which Peyton then audibles to make sure everyone is on the same page. I personally don't see much change in this area, but then again, here's hoping against hope.

Howard Mudd is considered to be one of the best OL coaches in the game today. He has been a visionary, and is a crafty old veteran of the sport. his coaching and playing resume spans 40 years. Pete Metzelaars is currently the assistant OL coach, and it is presumed that he would take over this role. Having been under the tutelege of one of the greatest coaches at this position has to have rubbed off.

With aging vets on the OL, and young talent that was put into the mix last year, this could be the biggest question mark that the Colts have. Besides the DL and LB corps of course. According to Big Blue Shoe at Stampede Blue, Metzelaars has been groomed to take over this postion as the replacement for Mudd for quite awhile now.

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2009/5/7/868049/howard-mudd-files-retirement#comments

Jim Caldwell has had to replace two other coaches this year, but not by promoting them from within the teams coaching staff. With the presumed promotions of Christensen and Metzelaars there will be continuity for the offense. However, it still begs the question of whether or not Christensen will be as effective as Moore has been. As of this time, Mudd is the only one of the two mentioned in this post who has filed retirement papers. As reported by Chris Mortensen of ESPN, according to Larry Keenan, executive of the NFL Coaches Association...

Kennan confirmed that Mudd has "already filed his retirement papers" and added that he believes Moore is "just about there."

Hopefully, these two guys are not pushed out, but then again it would be nice to see how well the Colts perform with such a high turnover in the coaching staff.

-JagsCub

Nathan Brown Waived with 2 others

JagsCub — Mon, 04 May 2009 20:24:24 -0000

Nathan Brown didn't make the cut after this weekends mini-camp. This begs the question of who is left, and who will they bring in to work.

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/football/jaguars/2009-05-04/story/jaguars_waive_three_add_two

I know David and Cleo are there, but who else. I believe Gene and Jack have talked of bringing others to look at. Anyone have any ideas as to who?

It will be interesting to see who they bring in.

Better Know A Draft Prospect: Cincinnati DE Connor Barwin

JagsCub — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:18:55 -0000

Connor Barwin

6'4, 255 pounds | Cincinnati | Defensive end

Video Killed the Scouting Report:

DE Connor Barwin Highlights Cincinnati 2008 (via DraftParty)

When Vic did his combine segments... he asked Gene, Jack, and all the positon coaches to give him a name of player that really stood out to them, and would be a good player to have on the team. In his segment with Ted Monachino, Ted quickly gave 3 names that stood out to him: Mitch King, Iowa DL, Larry English, Northern Illinois DE, and Connor Barwin, Cincinnatti DE.

While researching these 3 outstanding players, I quickly saw why Ted was so high on Barwin. This guy has tremendous atheletic ability, upside, and has a very diverse skill set that no matter where this guy lands, he will be able to contribute immediately!

Scout.com had this to say:

STRENGTHS

Athleticism

Pass Rushing Skills

Quickness off Ball

AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT

Disengaging Skills

Barwin is a versatile player who has experience playing on both sides of the ball. He has a great frame; a bit undersized, but has a strong upper-body and is aggressive at the point of attack. He initiates contact off the snap and plays with great leverage. He has quick feet, savvy moves and is relentless off the edge. He has to shed blocks cleanly and be consistent defending the run.

http://profootball.scout.com/a.z?s=127&p=8&c=1&nid=3681814

Mocking the Draft:

Strengths: Barwin is a classic, overachieving defender with a non-stop motor. He brings it hard every down and plays with a lot of emotion. Incredibly quick off the snap. Good speed that allows him to close quickly on the ball carrier. Developing pass-rush moves. Uses a spin fairly well. Solid covering backs on screens and broke up a lot of passes. Hands aren't great but better than most defensive ends. Strong work ethic. Will immediately be a special teams factor. Really good against returns and blocked three punts as a senior.

Weaknesses: Barwin is still learning the intricacies of the position after spending only a season at defensive end. After starting his career at tight end, the coaches wanted Barwin's athleticism on the defense. Because of his inexperience at the position, Barwin needs to improve his technique. He especially needs to do better staying low off the snap. He'll get too high allowing blockers to get under his pads and drive him back. Strength for a defensive end is only average.

Final word: It's unknown if Barwin will be able to make the jump to outside linebacker. He doesn't appear to have great lateral agility and struggles changing direction. In college, he made up for any athletic deficiencies with hard work and relentless effort. Still, he'll need to get stronger. As the 2008 season progressed, few prospects came on like Barwin did. Converting from tight end, Barwin led Cincinnati with 11 sacks to go with 15.5 tackles for a loss and seven pass breakups. Played two years on the Bearcats' basketball team as a walk-on.

Round projection: 2

http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2009/2/14/759478/scouting-report-connor-bar

Why he should be a Jaguar:

There maybe some negatives about this guy, but because of his lunch pail work ethic, and grit, this guys has quite a bit of upside. He's strong, athletic, and is willing to do whatever it takes for his team to succeed. He's a team player, and the kind of guy Gene is looking for when it comes to character and community.

Poll

Should Connor Barwin be a Jag?

Yes

52 votes

No

27 votes

79 votes | Poll has closed

Jags get it right

JagsCub — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 15:12:07 -0000

It has been a long time coming, but the Jags finally got it right Sunday. In one of the elite stadiums in the National Football League against one of the worst teams in the NFL we got it right. Our D did it early, but then gave up a touchdown drive that made us all think...."Here we go again!" However, the team stuck together, and on the next three possessions of the first half dominated the Lions like a Lion tamer in ring full of house cats. This was no jungle that they were going into, and if anything it was a Jaguars team that showed it was the King of the Jungle.

With that being said Here is what my take is on yesterday's game:

With Sensabaugh playing the Safety position and Williams back at corner our pass D seemed to be better. I haven't had a chance to look at it with an introspective eye, but from what I saw we did better. Allbeit, we did give up a couple of long plays, but still held when it counted. Mathis gave up two big plays to one of the best at his postion in Calvin Johnson. It was still a solid effort.

The run D still looked the same. Giving up big yardage to another Rookiie running back. Our DL was getting a good push up the middle, (with McDaniel, Landri, and Meier) but when the Lions were going outside they were unable to get through, and our LB's were getting caught up in the wash and pinned in. Allowing Kevin Smith to gash our edge is unacceptable, and is still cause for concern with the Titans coming to town next week.

OL did well in the run game, and having Norman in at guard seemed to be the key instead of Reyes. Nwaneri looked good, and was blowing holes open when pulling. Greg Jones is a stud! Nice cut back blocks to open up the backside, and a very athletic move on the swing pass to try and get the first down. Fred and Drew looked good, and had good vision on their way to getting the run game going. As far as the pass blocking goes, Pashos, totally whiffed on one play. It almost looked like he gave up on his block thinking that DG had gotten rid of the ball. You always play to the whistle. No excuse!

WR's also did well. Porter looked fluid, and Williamson was a factor. MJ, DN, and RW were also big factors in keeping drives going. TE's Lewis, and Angulo were also big contributors. Lewis is starting to look more and more like we envisioned him to be. He has become the deep seam threat that we need, and is blocking very well.

QB David Garrard has another great performance, and finishes with his highest rating of the year at 120. The CBS broadcast had him at 123, and Vic has him at 119. Either way it was a great performance. He looked comfortable in the pocket, and it was evident on the stat sheet.

Overall... it was good day! This is what should of happened. Hopefully, this will continue to happen, or were done for the rest of the season. I say this because another conference loss would require a miracle for us to get into the post season. This coming week gives us a chance to get back in it. As the slogan of the NFL says, "Believe in Now" that is exactly what we need to do. Not last week, not in two weeks, but NOW!

What are your thoughts?

GO JAGS!!!!