I've been fooling around with some projections of my own for the Giants in 2010, perhaps somewhat less rosy ones but ones I think I'd be willing to stand by. I don't know how grm got his charts to look so nice, so mine don't, but hopefully they are tolerable. I'll compare my projections straight across to his.

I was still fairly optimistic when adding the unknown fifth starter and spot starters into my totals because of what I see as the very real possibility of Madison Bumgarner taking over a starting job and pitching well at some point in the season. Other than that the biggest difference between my projections and rainman's are that I'm not as big a fan of the Giants' defense (Renteria, Sandoval, and Huff, oh my!), and I see the rotation pitching a somewhat smaller percentage of the team's total innings. Overall, rainman projects the rotation to allow 410 earned runs and I project it to allow 420 earned runs, pretty similar. The bigger difference in the pitching side of things between my projections and rainman's are in the bullpen. I don't see our best relievers getting nearly so many innings. Also, it seemed like a fool's errand to try to project an individual ERA for guys getting so few innings so I just projected their component stats and estimated an total bullpen ERA based on that. Overall, rainman's bullpen allows 196 runs (3.89 ERA) and mine allows 215 runs (4.06 ERA).

Throwing in the same total of unearned runs for comparision's sake and I'm projecting the pitching staff to allow 677 runs in 2010, 29 more than rainman's total of 648 and . Though in general rainman is slightly more optimistic in his forecasts, most of our difference on the pitching side is tied up in defense and on who ends up actually doing the pitching as opposed to individual projections. I also think that the Giants have more upside here than in the lineup, I'd be much less surprised to see them allow fifty fewer runs than I'm projecting than score fifty more.

On the lineup side, I don't expect a heck of a lot from the non-pandas. Schierholtz I've always been a fan of, but my projection is contingent on him really starting hot since I doubt the team will give him much rope to hang himself given Bochy's veteran-happy nature. I tried to hedge for some injury allowance in my playing time projections (especially to already or always injured guys like Freddy Sanchez or Aaron Rowand) - I feel like the PA distribution is still a smidge top-heavy but I got tired of tweaking it. Plugging in my projections for Giants hitters outside the top 13 and I have the offense scoring 680 runs, 23 more than last year's total but still well below rainman's 729.

That works out to a Pythagorean record of 81-81, which seems pretty reasonable to me. Last year's offense was incredibly, incredibly  bad, and while it doesn't take much to improve it we really haven't done much to improve it. The pitching prevents us from being a true bottom-feeder in terms of overall performance but make no mistake, this year's team is another Sabean special.

 

A .314 OBP last year? Let's play him in a corner outfield spot! Yes, I know he was better the year before and after Edgar Renteria's All-Star campaign last season it's clear that 34-year-olds usually rebound after a bad season. Seriously, this move is so Brian Sabean I'm amazed it hasn't happened already.

Not confirmed or anything but hey, if it happens I win for getting the thread out early and if it doesn't happen I win by not having to watch Mark DeRosa.

I thought this might be a fun exercise to look back on at the end of the season.

There are 25 questions - 10 yes/no, 10 over/under, and 5 fill-in answer.

Yes/No
1. Will the Giants finish in the bottom 5 in runs scored? (both leagues)
2. Will the Giants finish in the top 5 in runs allowed? (both leagues)
3. Will the Giants enter May without a full-time backup catcher on the roster?
4. Will Pablo Sandoval have a walk in his first five starts?
5. Will Matt Cain have the worst run support of any Giants pitcher with 15+ GS?
6. Will either of Madison Bumgarner or Tim Alderson appear in five games?
7. Will Randy Winn be traded before July 31st?
8. Will Travis Ishikawa spend the entire season in the majors?
9.  Will the Giants lose 90 games?
10. Will the Giants win 80 games?

Over/Under
11. Barry Zito Games Started: Over/Under 30
12. Edgar Renteria OPS: Over/Under .750
13. Giants team HR Leader: Over/Under 20
14. Randy Johnson Wins: Over/Under 10
15. Aaron Rowand HR Total: Over/Under 15
16. Giants trades between 4/1 and 7/31: Over/Under 3
17. Brian Wilson ERA: Over/Under 3.75
18. Giants bullpen ERA: Over/Under 3.50
19. Pablo Sandoval BA: Over/Under .300
20. Rich Aurilia AB: Over/Under .300

Fill-In
21. What place will the Giants finish in the NL West?
22. How many games will Tim Lincecum win?
23. Who will be the first Giants pitcher to be placed on the DL after Opening Day?
24. Who will be the Giants team HR leader?
25. Name a player not on the Opening Day roster who will contribute 50 innings or 200 at-bats by the end of the season.

So, I've been quick to come out against the notion that the Giants should make a splash in the free agent market; my belief is that winning teams are built from the bottom up and dipping into free agency for established players tends to result in overpaying for production. That's not to say that it's not without it's uses - a team might be one piece away from real contention or there may be an undervalued player on the market. I'm all for the second but I don't think anybody can honestly claim the Giants represent the first.

That said, that's just, like, my opinion man, so I decided to take a closer look at it. What I'd really like to do is see what percentage of the production on winning teams comes from free agents and compare that to the percentage on losing teams but that would be a huge project and it's already two in the morning as I write this. Instead, I'll try a somewhat simpler approach: We can all agree that the ultimate point of building a team is to win a championship. Beyond that, I think we wouldn't consider a season in which a team reached the World Series but failed to win a true failure - there's just no way to guarauntee a victory in a best of seven. So, I took the two World Series teams from every season since 1995 and identified their six most productive players by VORP. I then narrowed that list of players down to just those acquired through free agency. When we talk about the free agent market we are generally referring to the marquee players, so those players who teams took a flyer on aren't really relevant to this specific discussion (in fact, they are the kind of players I do think rebuilding teams like the Giants should target) - with that in mind I excluded those players who were signed to minor-league contracts or major-league contracts valued at less than $1 million per year.

2007 David Ortiz (Red Sox)
2007 Manny Ramirez (Red Sox)
2006 Jeff Suppan (Cardinals)
2006 Kenny Rogers (Tigers)
2005 Roger Clemens (Astros)
2005 Andy Pettite (Astros)
2004 David Ortiz (Red Sox)
2004 Manny Ramirez (Red Sox)
2004 Johnny Damon (Red Sox)
2003 Ivan Rodriguez (Marlins)
2003 Roger Clemens/David Wells (Tie) (Yankees)
2003 Jason Giambi (Yankees)
2003 Mike Mussina (Yankees)
2002 Brad Fullmer (Angels)
2002 Barry Bonds (Giants)
2001 Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
2001 Mark Grace (Diamondbacks)
2001 Roger Clemens (Yankees)
2001 Mike Mussina (Yankees)
2000 Roger Clemens (Yankees)
1999 David Cone (Yankees)
1999 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1998 David Cone (Yankees)
1998 David Wells (Yankees)
1998 Paul O'Neill (Yankees)
1997 Kevin Brown (Marlins)
1997 Alex Fernandez (Marlins)
1997 Moises Alou (Marlins)
1997 Bobby Bonilla (Marlins)
1997 Orel Hershiser (Indians)
1996 Kenny Rogers (Yankees)
1996 Paul O'Neill (Yankees)
1996 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1995 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1995 Orel Hershiser (Indians)
1995 Dennis Martinez (Indians)

That means that out of a total of 168 of the most valuable players on these teams, 36 were acquired as free agents, or about 20%. This would seem to support my hypothesis, it is very difficult, nearly impossible, to build a championship caliber team through free agency. This seems especially the case if you aren't a huge payroll team; of the 28 teams on my list only 10 had two or more free agents in their Top 6: the '04 and '07 Red Sox, the '96, '98, '01
 and '03 Yankees, the '97 Marlins, the '05 Astros, the '95 Indians, and the '01 Diamondbacks. The only World Series team in my timeline with more than three of their top six acquired through free agency are the pre-fire-sale 1997 Florida Marlins with four. After taking into account multiple appearances only 24 different players managed to make the list.

The most telling number, to me, of the 28 World Series teams, 18 had one or fewer of their top six players acquired through free agency. 7 teams had none at all.

Now, obviously this is a limited sample and doesn't go into as much detail as I'd like to, but it does make me more confident that a closer look would also point towards free agency as an ineffective way to build a championship-caliber team. For the Giants it's a case that should be even clearer as they need look no further than Barry Zito to see the risk inherent in this method and a lot of us were saying the exact same thing back then. Hopefully it doesn't fall on deaf ears this year and the Giants just say no to free agency.

It's been a while since one of my marathon fanposts around here - in fact, this may be my first since all this snazzy new stuff was around, but the last month or so have really revitalized my interest in the Giants.

I was, and probably still am, one of the biggest Brian Sabean detractors around here - I was more or less furious when we re-signed him and dismissive of the idea that Magowan was as much a part of the problem. I still don't see where people were getting that idea at the time, but his track record in the short time since Magowan's departure is so radically improved that I'm starting to consider the notion.

Our farm system has taken a huge boost from these last two drafts - five of Grant's recently posted top ten were '07 or '08 amateurs, and if we do sign Rafael Rodriguez that will make six. I was critical of our overdrafting position players with some of our picks in '07, and I would still have loved to have shelled out more money but with the numbers Alderson and Bumgarner are putting up in the minors I think there is the ammunition to defend the assertion that Sabean simply thought they were the best available talents when he took them. Drafting Posey this season was huge - I love me some Justin Smoak and college first basemen are beasts, but when you have a guy who could have gone #1 overall and draws Joe Mauer comparisions I think you have to take the best available talent and I've seen multiple sources cite the Giants as having the best draft in '08 as a result.

At the major league level things haven't been quite as drastic - Nate Schierholtz is still not on the squad and Rich Aurilia is playing every day, but Sabean has made some noise about dealing the veterans at the deadline and with the apparent shift in organizational philosophy this time I might actually believe him. Don't hurt me again Brian.

At this point I'm willing to entertain the idea that Brian Sabean really has learned some new tricks and can combine those with the organization's strengths to be maybe a Kenny Williams quality GM - capable of making some very savvy moves but also prone to the occasional inexplicably stupid ones. He's got some upside though, as I see it, depending on how he handles this year's trading deadline.

The trading deadline has always been Sabean's weakest link, in my opinion. We never sell when we should sell and we're not very good at buying. Even in our more non-competitive seasons, be it from lack of interest or overpricing we've never really succeeded at dealing the veterans but I think there's real potential this season if Sabes is savvy about it. We need to deal Durham for sure - he's hitting, he's blocking Velez who is a marginal prospect but does meet the rebuilding mantra; he's more likely to be on the next good Giants team than Durham is. We need to deal Randy Winn - he's hot and he's blocking Nate Schierholtz who absolutely must be in the lineup come August 1st, no excuses. Aurilia should go if we can get anything worthwhile for him, and in theory the same goes for overachieving scrub Jose Castillo though I can't see us getting any value for him. The same goes for Omar Vizquel, I know, I know, he's Omar, we love him, but this team needs the cojones to deal fan favorites when that's best for the team and they can take some lessons from the guys across the bay for that one. The bullpen should be open season too - keep Wilson, Hinshaw (his upside is more than his trade value at this point), and the injured Valdez but make everyone else available to sweeten deals and try to get some decent return on Winn/Durham.

Molina should be available but dealing him isn't mandatory - I'd love to see us get a real prospect in return for him as he won't be on the next good Giants team - most of our scenarios for success have Posey as the position player centerpiece in a few seasons. On the other hand, I understand the argument that we have to keep some fans in the seats and even if I place no credence on the veteran catcher - young pitcher theory we always have next season to deal him at the deadline or let him walk for the draft pick.

If Sabean can really prove that he's cleansed himself of his veteran obsession and if he can dust of his old trading skills and move some contracts and even get some real return on these deals then maybe he can make this team good again, and not fleeting veteran-reliant good like in the past but good for some years to come, with a pitching core that's already there and a lineup that supplements homegrown talent with a couple of free agents instead of the other way around. If our regular lineup in August looks something like this:

C Molina
1B Bowker
2B Velez
3B McClain/Castillo or Aurilia if were unable to deal with them
SS Burriss/Omar if he's still around
LF Lewis
CF Rowand
RF Schierholtz

Then maybe Sabean really will be the architect that can put the new Giants team together.

So, if you were the GM, how would you rebuild the organization next year. Free agents and trades are okay, but try to stay in the realm of realism.

Starting Rotation

1. Tim Lincecum
   
2. Matt Cain
   
3. Barry Zito
   
4. Jonathan Sanchez
   
5. Kevin Correia

Bullpen

1. Brian Wilson
   
2. Brad Hennessey
   
3. Jack Taschner
   
4. Randy Messenger
   
5. Billy Sadler
   
6. Patrick Misch

Defense
C Jeff Clement (from Seattle for Noah Lowry and Dan Ortmeier)
1B Cheap free agent signing or trade
2B Ray Durham
3B Kevin Frandsen
SS Omar Vizquel (one year deal if a trade can't be worked out)
LF Barry Bonds (one year deal, hey, you said it was our team)
CF Fred Lewis vs. righties, Rajai Davis vs. lefties
RF Nate Schierholtz

Bench
C Elezier Alfonzo
CIF Rich Aurilia
MIF Tomas De la Rosa
OF Rajai Davis/Fred Lewis
OF Dave Roberts

Gone
Randy Winn and Bengie Molina, traded for prospects or a ML-ready infielder, first base preferable.
Brian Sabean

This is a bad team, to be sure, but the presence of Bonds prevents it from being historically bad and doesn't keep any promising players out of the lineup. Some of the random bullpen arms can be replaced with dumpster diving reclamation projects but any contract in excess of $1 million handed out to a free agent reliever would be stupid in my opinion.

I'd been sort of rooting for the Indians this season but watching some Rockies games I'd gotten into it and I'd just started getting sucked into this one (exciting playoff one-hitters from power-armed rookies? Kind of fun) when the shutout gets broken up. How?

A homer from Shane f***ing Victorino. Oh, I'm in now.

The Indians are in the thick of the playoff hunt so evidently don't feel that they can take any more growing pains from Fernando Cabrera so they've placed him on release waivers. He's only 25 with these career numbers:

2005. 1.47 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9
      
2006. 5.19 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9
      
2007. 5.61 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9 (in half a seasons worth of innings)

He's obviously got to cut down on the walks but he's the very definition of "upside" and we're in a position to both offer him a park that will minimize his home run problem and give him time to work through his troubles without effecting our chances to go anywhere. He can be had for a song, but like Wilson Betemit, I'm sure Brian has no idea he exists. I mean, is there any way this guy isn't a better closer prospect than Brian Wilson? They are similar ages with similar track records except that Cabrera has done his flashes-of-brilliance-but-no-control act in the majors and Wilson has done it all over the minors.

Well, it's your favorite (or least favorite, depending on your affinity for precipitation and/or Dustin Hoffman) writer of novel-length opinions and I thought I'd chime in with my two cents on the draft, or, more specifically, the first six picks because, let's be honest, those are the ones that really matter.

#10 overall - LHP Madison Bumgarner
DOB: 08/01/89 (age 17)
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 19th best overall draft prospect, 9th best pitcher.
Sickels: Ranked as the 5th best pitcher.

Tools: A fastball that has clocked anywhere from the low-to-high 90s, I'm guessing Giants scouts see it ending up sitting on the high end which seems entirely possible given his age and size. A changeup that seems to be liked by scouts but has not been very used and a breaking ball that so far ranks as fringe-average at best as he has only been throwing it for a year. He has high marks for athleticism (something I like) and stamina, so combining those with the fact that he hasn't thrown the breaking ball much I'd guess he's as low an injury risk as a 17-year-old pitcher can be. The breaking ball is definitely the biggest knock against him as he'll have to develop a significantly better one to make it. With his arm slot (3/4), I'm not sure if the Giants will teach him a curveball or a slider (his current pitch is supposed to be very slurvy) but I defer to their judgement in that regard as I am definitely not a scout. Interestingly, Dick Tidrow is quoted as saying that he thinks Bumgarner will move very quickly, which surprised me a lot because that's the opposite of what I've heard.

My take: At the time I was very upset, but I've come around a lot on him. He's not who I'd have taken (I wanted Mills, and I preferred Aumont to him on the pitching side) but only time will tell whether he was the best pitcher on the board as the Giants were clearly planning to go that route. Apparently this was the guy Logan White and the Dodgers wanted, and that's worth a lot in my book. He's definitely a guy who is going to take a lot of time down in the minors to be ready, but Keith Law (whose opinions I respect) sees him as a good #2, and that's worth the wait.

Verdict: 4/5 stars - he's not a Lincecum, but he's not Daniel Moskos (God I'm glad I'm not a Pirate fan.)

#22 overall - RHP Tim Alderson
DOB: 11/03/88 (age 18)
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 210 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 27th best overall draft prospect, 14th best pitcher.
Sickels: Not ranked in the top 12 pitchers.

Tools: An 89-93 fastball (although Goldstein said it could clock at 96, so I guess we'll have to wait til his minor-league debut to see), probably not quite enough to qualify as a power fastball but enough to be a solid offering. He also throws a curveball and changeup that aren't as polished but some scouts see them both as a potential plus pitches. His control is his biggest asset, while high school numbers are usually largely meaningless in this case the miniscule walk total and the scouts agree that he has excellent command. His delivery is described as "unorthodox" (he pitches only out of the stretch and from an unusual angle), but I'm willing to give the Giants the benefit of the doubt in this regard. Apparently some scouts see him as a reliever, but I'm not sure if this is just because of the delivery or if they fear for his health or stamina.

My take: Again, he wasn't the top pitcher I'd have liked to take at this point, but we'll just have to wait and see. The big turn-off for me is that some see him as a reliever - I really hope that the Giants really project him as a starter. Keith Law again likes the pick which is a meaningful endorsement in my book. He projects to move much more quickly than Bumgarner but his lack of a real power pitch limits his upside, more like a good #3/#2. The guy that springs to mind just from the scouting reports is Joe Blanton, and that's not a bad kind of guy to have. He's also got a scholarship to play at Oregon State, so it's possible he might not be signed. Keep in mind, with the new rules we'll get a compensation pick next year if he doesn't.

Verdict: 4/5 stars assuming the team sees him as a starter, 2.5/5 stars if they see him as a reliever simply because #22 would be a definite overdraft and overpay.

#29 overall - OF Wendell Fairley
DOB: 3/17/88 (age 19)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 draft prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: It's hard to get as much info on Fairley because he wasn't really expected to go this high, but I gather that he's a talented (some say as much as top 15 talented) player who is just incredibly raw because he's come late to baseball. There's also attitude questions, but that kind of thing rarely bothers me. He's drawn Carl Crawford comparisions, but that shouldn't make people assume he's anywhere near that kind of a prospect yet. He's the kind of guy who probably won't make many top prospect lists right away but if he starts performing well in full-season ball he'll climb quickly because of his tools. He's very fast and defensively is expected to be able to stay in center, which is very important. Overall, a good athlete who might not have seemed like a reach at this point in the draft without the off-field issues.

My take: I'm split. On the one hand, he's a high-upside pick, and I like that, but on the other hand he's definitely not who I'd have taken, and he's very likely a guy who would have been available in the supplemental round. San Francisco's scouts must really like him, but that doesn't carry nearly as much weight on the hitting side given the kind of hitters we've tended to draft. I'm not sure if money played a role in the selection, I hope it didn't, but it could have given that Bumgarner and Alderson are both going to be fairly expensive. It's also not necessarily a sure thing that he'll sign, especially as a two-sport athlete, but early signs seem to be optimistic.

Verdict: 4/5 stars, and that's a hard one to give. High-risk, high-reward also tempered by the fact that he may be a bit of an overdraft, but he's got the upside.

#32 overall - SS Nick Noonan
DOB: 05/04/89 (age 18)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 180 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 31st best overall prospect, 13th best hitter
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: Listed as a shortstop but nobody sees him there, he'll likely end up at second base because the arm limits him on the left side of the infield. He's a fast, good baserunner, and while not a burner is smart enough not to run into outs. He's athletic enough, but his bat is what makes him a high draft pick. He's a good contact hitter who probably isn't strong enough to be much of a power hitter with the most optimistic projections putting his ceiling at 10-15 homers annually, and he's considered to have a good eye, though not an outstanding one. Basically seems like a good pure hitter (any power he has is the product of his ability to drive the ball rather than raw strength) who projects as a leadoff or #2 hitter. He's polished for an eighteen-year-old, but will obviously need significant time in the minors.

My Take: I like Noonan a fair amount but he's really not a high-upside guy and the fact that he's not a shortstop at the next level hampers him (although second base isn't exactly a loaded position either). The Giants have also had trouble developing guys like him (see Sanders, Marcus) but it's hard to really assign blame for those kinds of things. Also, again, there were a number of guys left on the draft board who I'd rather have had, and I think money definitely played a role because the Giants did like Julio Borbon. If that's the case it really irks me - developing players from within in essential for a good team so being willing to throw so much money out there in free agency and not the amateur draft is, IMO, a terrible way to do things.

Verdict: 3.5/5 stars -  He's more than Kevin Frandsen, but not enough more to get me excited.

#43 overall C Jackson Williams
DOB: 05/14/86 (age 21)
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 200 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: The Giants saw him as the best defensive catcher in the draft but I don't think that was necessarily the consensus opinion. He's definitely a plus defensive catcher, but other than that I don't know anything about him other than the fact that nobody saw him going high enough to warrant much of a scouting report.

My Take: I'm assuming the Giants didn't feel that Mitch Canham could stay behind the plate, but there are a ton of guys I'd rather have at this spot. Yasmani Grandal, for one, is listed by Kevin Goldstein as the best defensive player in the draft and has more offensive upside. On a team with a good reputation for scouting hitters you might be inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, but the Giants really haven't even come close to earning that kind of deference. Unless scouts that aren't on the Giants payroll start saying good things about this guy I can't say I'm impressed. He wasn't on any sleeper lists I'd read, and honestly, I'd never even heard of the guy before his name was called which doesn't bode well for a #43 overall pick. I disagree with the idea that the Giants had to draft a top-flight defensive catcher because they drafted the two pitches first - very few pitches have regular, much less excellent catchers in the minor-leagues and I've never heard of it having any effect on their development. Even then, Grandal ranks very highly defensively and much better with the bat.

Verdict: 1.5/5 stars - Justin Jackson, who was picked next, would have warranted a 5/5 from me here too.

#51 overall SS Charles Culberson
DOB: 04/10/89 (age 18)
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 185 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: Again, a guy who nobody had going this early and on whom information is very hard to find. From what I've gathered he's another guy who probably won't stick at shortstop, projecting instead as a second or third baseman. Hopefully in the next few days more information will become available.

My Take: I don't know enough about this guy to judge him, but again he's a guy who was on nobody's top prospects lists while a number of guys who were on everybody's were still around. I'll withold judgement for now, but it doesn't look good.

Verdict: N/A

---

Overall, I was disappointed, and I don't want that to seem like more damning praise than it is. The Giants had a pretty good draft, I wanted a very good draft. We had a chance to really re-tool our farm system, especially if we shelled out the big bucks for some signability issues, and instead we just had a pretty good draft. I like Bumgarner and Alderson (again, provided the Giants see him as a reliever), I cautiously like Fairley, and Noonan is okay, but the last two supplemental picks do absolutely nothing for me. They were both reaches and guys that the consensus scouting report on was underwhelming, which might not hold as much water if we were talking about the Braves, who excel at scouting, but when we're talking about the Giants you have to wonder if these were financially-motivated picks. I get that six first-round picks costs a lot of money but I absolutely disagree with the idea that throwing around the kind of money San Francisco does in free agency is anything closer to a better investment than spending that money on draft day. Basically, I think the Giants had a good draft - there were certainly teams that did worse (the Pirates and Twins really spring to mind) but there were teams that did better, and with the kind of hopes I had, that's enough to disappoint me. I like it a bit less than Keith Law, but not a lot less.

Overall Rating: 3.5/5 stars (4/5 stars for the first round, 2/5 stars for the supplemental)

These moves are pretty recent, but I'll do my best to explain my reasoning behind the judgements if I give them.

December 1st, 2006

Signed Ray Durham to a two-year contract worth $14.5 million

This is the kind of deal that you should sign veteran players to - short term, so even if injuries strike (and with Durham, that's almost more of a when than an if) you're not on the hook for too long. Moreover, Durham is more than just a placeholder, he's an offensive threat at a position that doesn't have many of them. He's old, but is coming off one of his better seasons with the bat and doesn't have any warning signs of decline. And lastly, he's not blocking anybody, despite some bizarre assertions that Frandsen is the better player.

Verdict: Nice little deal, one of Sabean's best since signing Durham in the first place.

December 2nd, 2006

Signed Dave Roberts to a three-year contract worth $18 million

This is going to be another one I get crap for, but I'll explain why I think the Roberts signing isn't as good as it looks on the surface. The length is a little longer than I'd like for a player with a bit of an injury history, especially one with so much value in his legs, but it's not a crippling type of contract. The problem is simple: allocation of resources. With Steve Finley out of the picture (mercifully) the team already had an above-average center fielder in Randy Winn. Compared to other center fielders, Winn was a well above-average hitter with at least average defense, move him to right and while his defense is even better in comparision he's also merely an average hitter. That isn't to say that Sabean didn't try to sign a right fielder, he offered Carlos Lee a much longer-term contract than he should have and we got lucky when he turned it down (for an equally bad deal). The problem was giving up there - there were other outfielders on the market. J.D. Drew's contract was a pretty good one (though he's off to a slow start), Jose Guillen is a better hitter than Roberts, Trot Nixon fills the big half of a platoon. There were other options.

Verdict: Even, good on money vs. talent, bad in that Roberts doesn't fit in the lineup very well and it's a three-year deal to an injury-prone player.

December 4th, 2006

Signed Rich Aurilia to a two-year contract worth $8 million

Aurilia and Klesko haven't been quite average together at first base, but there weren't really any appealing first basemen on the market so I suppose Sabean did the best he could. I actually like the Klesko signing better because it's for only one year, but we can assume he actually had some competition for Aurilia and $8 million isn't much.

Verdict: Good little deal.

Signed Pedro Feliz to a one-year contract worth $5.1 million

In 2006, Pedro Feliz posted a .237 EQA. No full-time third baseman was worse than that. Even looking at more "traditional" stats, Feliz hit .244/.281/.428 in a league where the average third baseman hit .282/.354/.472. It's not like that season was a fluke either, his OPS+ over the past three seasons had been 98, 87, 79. So, you re-sign a 32-year-old coming off a three-year decline, the worst full-time hitter at his position. Unbelievable. There's no excusing that. Frandsen would outhit that, easy.

Verdict: Bad. Again, re-signing the worst hitter at a position can't be a good deal regardless of the money involved.

December 6th, 2006

Signed Bengie Molina to a three-year contract worth $16 million

This is another good veteran signing - Molina is an above-average hitting catcher and even with his declining defense the money isn't so much that it would be crippling if he ended up a backup by the end of the deal or something. There weren't many catchers on the market either.

Verdict: Good. I don't like the long-term contract to a catcher with a weight problem but so far Molina has hit well and there's as much a chance he stays the good-stick no-defense asset that he is for the duration of the contract just as there's a chance he gets hurt.

Signed Steve Kline to a two-year contract worth $3.5 million.

Kline was coming off a two-year stretch where he put together this line: 4.63 RA, 5.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 1.50 WHIP.

You're telling me there's nobody down on the farm or off the top of the garbage bin that could approximate that line? Kline's only real virtue at this point in his career is that he's been in the league for twelve years and he's left-handed. His performance has been even worse than could be expected so far: a WHIP over 2.00, but his bullpen spot hasn't been mentioned as being in jeopardy, for some reason. It's not like he's a LOOGY or anything either, over the last three years lefties have hit only a smidgen worse against him than righties.

Verdict: Bad - the money isn't much but Kline is an eminently replaceable quantity so it's basically money down the drain.

December 19th, 2006

Signed Ryan Klesko to a one-year contract worth $1.75 million

His power stroke may have disappeared but so far at least he's been able to get on base, and that's something. $1.75 million is barely more than a flyer, so it was a pretty low-risk move.

Verdict: Good minor deal, assuming Sabean was unable to find any adequate first sackers in a trade Klesko/Aurilia are a much better deal than, say, Sean Casey who I was terrified we'd try to get.

December 29th, 2006

Signed Barry Zito to a seven-year contract worth $126 million with a vesting option for an eighth year

Now, in most cases you'd say "oh, how can you judge a contract after only two months," but there's plenty of reasons we can see right now that this contract was bad. First of all, take a look at Zito's peripherals over the past three years (and now a month and a half into 2007):

2004: 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
2005: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
2006: 6.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
2007: 5.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 (small sample size, but if apparently these last two months can validate the Morris/Winn signings I guess they can iNvalidate this one.)

Not even taking length into account it's pretty clear that the pitcher you are getting isn't exactly dominating. He eats up a ton of innings, sure, but three years of declining peripherals doesn't exactly scream "long-term contract." Which gets us to the length. Seven years (maybe EIGHT) for a pitcher is never a good idea. The risk is too high - even an exceptional pitcher (which Zito is not) is a huge risk over the course of seven years. Don't believe me? The largest contracts ever given to a pitcher before Zito were eight years $121 million to Mike Hampton, and seven years $105 million to Kevin Brown, and we all know how those turned out. The similarity runs beyond the financial, Mike Hampton is actually Zito's most similar pitcher through age 28 according to Baseball Reference.

To summarize a bit, because I know this one is going to get some discussion, I'm not saying Zito is a bad pitcher. He's better than he has been this year, but I don't see any way that this contract is going to go down as a good one. Sure, there's a chance he'll turn into Tom Glavine or Jamie Moyer and pitch forever, but when you're talking about $126 million you can't rely too much on wishcasting - the chances are not good that this will be a good contract.

Verdict: Bad, with a chance to be merely pretty damn bad and a chance to be one of the worst ever.

January 30th, 2007

Signed Barry Bonds to a one-year contract worth $15.8 million

It's hard to say anything about this - the Giants were going to re-sign Barry Bonds and they did. It's a one-year deal so the money isn't really a huge issue and the team frankly wasn't contending without Bonds so Sabean's hands were tied even if he hadn't wanted Bonds back. Even with his May tailspin, Barry has been one of, if not the, best hitter in the league, so it looks even better. The key to free agency, in my opinion, is the short-term contract. When you have young, homegrown players that's when you lock them up long-term, but free agency is almost always a market full of players past their primes (hitters peak around 29, pitchers possibly even sooner) so you're 9 times out of 10 going to pay for production you'll never get again.

Verdict: Good, inevitable contract.

April 1st, 2007

Signed Matt Cain to a four-year contract worth $9 million

Like the Lowry deal, this one is good, and a good precedent to set, but it wasn't the fleecing some seem to have interpreted it as. I don't think Cain left money on the table - he's basically forfeiting a few million in arbitration for the guarantee that, even if his arm falls off (STOP LETTING HIM THROW 110 PITCHES BOCHY) he'll be able to retire happily. I wouldn't have wanted to give him much more guaranteed money then we did, I don't think he left any on the table.

Verdict: Good deal, with the above explanation.

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Sabean clocks in for this last off-season with a superfically impressive six good contracts to three bad ones, but that doesn't really tell the story. The good contracts were all nice little deals, but the bad contracts ranged from inexcusable (Feliz) to possibly payroll-crippling (Zito). In addition, Sabean again backloaded the contracts making it even harder for the team of the future to compete. Look at it this way, would you rather have these contracts:

Zito: $18 million (7 year commitment)
Kline: $3.5 million (2 year commitment)
Roberts: $6 million (3 year commitment)
Feliz: $5 million (1 year commitment)

or these ones:

Daisuke Matzusaka: $17 million (6 year commitment with the posting fee averaged in to the contract)
Akinori Iwamura: $4 million (3 year commitment, again with the posting fee averaged into the contract)
Trot Nixon: $3 million (1 year commitment)
Jayson Werth: $1 million (1 year commitment)

And just pocket the extra $7 million - or better yet use it in the amateur draft to make a play at any signability issues that drop? Or, even if you aren't feeling adventurous, just

Ted Lilly: $10 million (4 year commitment)
Jose Guillen: $5.5 million (1 year commitment)
Jeff Cirillo: $1.5 million (1 year commitment), play him or Frandsen as you desire

And use the extra $15 million a year elsewhere? I know I would certainly prefer the latter.

So, a little delayed but on the heels of that awesome showing by our $126 million man, here's the reviews for the 2006 season.

December 8st, 2005

Signed Mark Sweeney to a two-year contract worth $1.8 million

As a general move, this one wasn't bad - add a little first baseman depth for very little money, but expecting Sweeney to be anything close to a capable starter at first was certainly a mistake. With the benefit of hindsight, he's been a pretty poor hitter period over the course of the contract as well. Since it was a low-risk low-reward move, and we certainly got both ends, I'll call this one even, but it could be called a very minor good move as well - on par with a low-risk bullpen signing or something. Take whichever you prefer.

Verdict: Even/good, for the reasons listed above

December 8th, 2005

Signed Matt Morris to a three-year contract worth $27 million

This is a somewhat difficult contract to judge. On the one hand, the Giants certainly needed a starter, but on the other hand this seemed like a huge overpay at the time. Morris was coming off a year where he had a 4.11 ERA, slightly above average, but that had come on the heels of a year where had a 4.76 ERA with much the same peripherals. What worries me was that the statistic Sabean seemed to look at for those two seasons wasn't the middling strikeout rate but the 15-10 and 14-10 records behind the powerful Cardinals offense. As it turned out, we got the 4.76 ERA Morris for the first year of the contract and he's looked on the verge of implosion so far in this, the second year of the contract (more walks than strikeouts) - and we still have another year to pay him. At least we got lucky that the market for pitcher's contracts has shot up so much that his might be tradeable.

Verdict: Bad - Morris is an average pitcher at best and appears to be in decline. The saving grace is that the contract doesn't look as bad now, but Morris sure does.

December 21st, 2005

Traded Edgardo Alfonzo for Steve Finley

Well, Steve Finley was simply awful, as was expected, although Alfonzo was even worse. It's hard to decide - Finley contributed basically nothing with the bat (a 6.5 VORP, hooray!), and at least Alfonzo would have been released for his terrible play. On the other hand, while an atrocious hitter, if the team is insistent on giving Pedro Feliz regular at-bats at least he had a good glove at third.

Verdict: Good, I guess, but come on. Also, keep in mind, Sabes is the guy who signed Alfonzo's bad back in the first place.

December 23rd, 2005

Signed Jose Vizcaino to a one-year contract worth $1.2 million

This contract is in many ways one of the most damning Sabean has ever signed. It basically proved that he doesn't understand the concept of replacement level (I'm not high on Kevin Frandsen and I'm relatively sure he could could hit .210/.304/.261. It also points out his "quantity over quality" approach to free agency - why spend $12 million on Vladimir Guerrero when for the same price you could have Jeffrey Hammonds, Marquis Grissom, Jose Vizcaino, Mark Sweeney, and several chili dogs?! Also, giving Jose Vizcaino starts at first base was pretty much proof of Flippy's senility and I hold management responsible for not firing him on the spot.

Verdict: Great, great move.

February 28th, 2006

Signed Randy Winn to a three-year contract worth $23.25 million

This contract actually demonstrates one of Sabean's other flaws: his inability to comprehend the notion of "sample sizes." Randy Winn hit .359/.391/.680 down the stretch last season, that's like Mickey friggin' Mantle! Sign him up quick! What, a no trade clause? Sure, why would we want to trade Mickey Mantle?! Winn was miserable last year and even though it looks like he's bouncing back to his career averages this season that's still a bad contract for a team scrounging to put together a first baseman out of Ryan Klesko and Rich Aurilia.

Verdict: Bad move, both in logic and results.

November, 2006

Signed Noah Lowry to a four-year contract worth $9.25 million

Now, these pitching deals are good ones, but not nearly as good as people seem to think. They are basically medium-risk medium-reward type of moves - they buy out some arbitration years with somewhat below-market contracts but also guarantee money to young arms. Chances are this ends up looking like a pretty solid move (although I'm not sold on Lowry as anything more than a league-average starter), but there is always an injury risk for young pitchers and that's what the player is giving up the extra money to buy out.

Verdict: Good, but overrated.

July 21st, 2006

Traded Jeremy Accardo for Shea Hillenbrand and Vinnie Chulk

You could (and people have) built a damn good bullpen out of pitchers we basically threw away. Accardo is the new closer in Toronto with Ryan's injury and is looking great in the role while Vinnie Chulk is the same homer-prone fringe reliever he always was and Shea Hillenbrand managed to hit .248/.275/.415 and lead us to third place.

Verdict: It's a Sabean trade, what do you think? BAD.

July 28th, 2006

Traded Shairon Martis for Mike Stanton

When I originally read about this trade I thought it was a joke. Yeah, right, trade another semi-promising young arm for, like, the oldest pitcher in baseball. Good one.

Verdict: I don't care of Martis never makes it to AA, this is just stupid on principle. Like this team was just a Mike Stanton away from contention.

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So, broken down for signings and trades we have even to good signing (Sweeney) and two solidly bad signings (Morris, Vizcaino). Trades, we have one even to good (Finley), and two solidly bad (Stanton, Hillenbrand). For extensions we have one good (Lowry) and one bad (Winn). Another poor showing with a couple of just indefensible moves with the signing of Vizcaino and the just stupid trading deadline antics again. These last few seasons have me worried that Sabean is seriously going to bust out some sort of a Nate Schierholtz for Bob Howry deal this July just to stay in character.

So, if I didn't make it clearer in the first installment, that section covered the 2004 season (both pre-season and mid-season), thus this installment will cover the preparation for the 2005 season as well as any mid-season transactions.

November 14th, 2004

Signed Omar Vizquel to a three-year contract worth $12.25 million.

Interestingly, I have to harken back to the Pierzynski trade to explain my verdict on this one. Coming into the 2005 season, Vizquel was a 38-year-old shortstop coming off a .291/.353/.388 season - above average performance when coupled with his defense but also the fourth best season of his entire career, a bit of a red flag for somebody of his age. In addition, he had missed half of the previous season due to injuries and failed a mid-season physical for a trade. Now, he's rewarded us with a solid performance (up until this year), but with the knowledge we had at the time this wasn't a good idea. If I'm not docking Sabean for the Liriano deal, I can't in good conscience call this a good one. In addition, we forfeited another draft pick for the signing

Verdict: Even, for the reasons listed above.

November 30th, 2006

Signed Armando Benitez to a three-year contract worth $21 million.

At the time of the signing, Benitez was coming off a monster season for the Marlins where he put up a 1.29 ERA for the Marlins, but there was more to it than that - he pitched just under 70 innings with a merely good 62/21 K/BB ratio and an average home run rate. In the season for that he pitched for three different teams and walked more than 4.5 batters per 9 innings, not a very reliable commodity. He was definitely the best closer on the market, but for a team that started an outfield of Feliz in left, Ellison in center, and Tucker in right, was Armando the piece to bring the team to contention? Yes, I know that those three were not intended to be the starters, but when you have Barry Bonds and Moises Alou manning the corners "unplanned injuries" isn't a card you can play. In addition, we sacrified our first round draft pick in a fairly strong draft.

Verdict: Bad deal because it did not address the team's needs.

December 13th, 2004

Signed Mike Matheny to a three-year contract worth $10.5 million and released A.J. Pierzynski.

The release of Pierzynski technically came after the signing, but these two were basically one move and an absolutely terrible one, top to bottom. First, we'll look at the release of Pierzynski. A.J. was coming off a season where he hit .272/.319/.410, a disappointing season, but a tolerable one in a league where the average backstop hit 258..323.392. He'd also alienated himself to the rest of the team and the fans, so Sabean could have been excused for not getting full value back in a trade, but he didn't even get that, he released him. He released a 27-year-old catcher coming off five consecutive above-average seasons. RELEASED. There is no excuse for that, none at all.

So, maybe he redeemed himself with the replacement? Hardly. Mike Matheny was coming off a season where he posted the lowest EQA of any catcher with 200 PA. His defense was legendary, sure, but he was the worst hitting starting catcher not only on the market, but in the big leagues. WARP, taking into account defense, valued his 2004 performance at 3.4, less than Pierzynski's showing in the season and that took into account Pierzynski's questionable defense. BEYOND THAT, we were the only team interested in Matheny's service - his agent expressed surprise that we offered him such an above-market contract. His old team was kicking him to the curb for YADIER MOLINA, and we payed him over $10 million. In his career with the Giants he hit an atrocious .239/.287/.388 before a concussion ended his career.

Verdict: Bad, bad, bad, and did I mention bad?

December 27th, 2004

Signed Moises Alou to a two-year contract worth $13.35 million

Now, Moises Alou absolutely raked over the course of this contract, enough to make the money worthwhile, but he also fell short of qualifying for the batting title in both seasons due to injuries. In addition, his numbers in San Francisco have been significantly higher than one would have projected given his three years in Chicago. I'll give Sabean some credit, I suppose for seeing some life left in Alou's bat, but his inability to add an adequate insurance policy in the event of Alou's inevitable injuries (Alex Sanchez, anyone?) keeps this from being a plus move.

Verdict: Even.

January 17th, 2005

Re-signed Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract worth $6.1 million

This move is a telling one because it highlights a flaw in Sabean's team-building logic: even if his plan really is to surround Bonds with cheap average players he doesn't know where to find average players. Pedro Feliz hit .276/.305/.485 in 2004, his age 29 season. Now, this was a much higher batting average than his totals in the few seasons prior, so it seemed safe to assume that he wouldn't match it in the next season as he entered the decline phase of his career. At absolute best, Sabean could have expected a repeat of his 2004 performance, so was that worth keeping around? In a word, no. Feliz's 2004 EQA was a career high .263 and was better than only Tony Batista and Edgardo Alfonzo in terms of starting third basemen. Over the two years of that contract he posted EQAs of .246 and .241, the latter making him the worst starting third baseman with the bat in all of baseball.

Verdict: By definition signing the worst player at a position cannot be a good deal.

May 28th, 2005

Traded Jerome Williams and David Aardsma for LaTroy Hawkins

This trade was just retarded. Jerome Williams has certainly fallen from grace but at the time he was still a reasonably interesting pitcher while Aardsma was a former first round draft pick who still looked like a closer in the waiting. We got 30 mediocre innings from LaTroy Hawkins out of the deal and later dealt him for Steve Kline, and while Williams is on the verge of losing a Nationals rotation spot, Aardsma is a late-inning reliever who has struck out 27 in 22 innings this year and occasionally touches 100 mph on the gun. But, yeah, I mean, LaTroy Hawkins, right?

Verdict: Just stupid.

June 30th, 2005

Traded Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba for Randy Winn

On the surface this trade looks like a good deal - and on the surface it is. We gave up a backup catcher and a prospect who had fallen for grace for an average outfielder who played much better than average for us down the stretch - but it wasn't a trade we should have made. On June 30th the Giants were five and a half games back from a very weak division but there were three teams ahead of them and pretty much nobody outside the Giants front office really thought they had a chance at a serious run of contention without Barry Bonds. As it turns out, those people were right, because even though the trade worked out as well as anybody could ever have hoped the Giants were never within four games of making the playoffs as they limped to a third place finish.

Verdict: Even - the trade itself wasn't bad in terms of the talent we gave up but we were buyers at a trade deadline where we should not have been.

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So, overall for the 2005 season Sabean clocks in with three even deals and four bad deals, not a good showing, especially given just how bad the bad deals were. Again he refused to sell at the trade deadline - he added Randy Winn (and Winn hit like the second coming of Mickey Mantle) and we weren't even close to making the postseason. Clearly we shouldn't have been buyers at the deadline if even adding a .359/.391/.680 line down the stretch left us seven games under .500, no? With a team as old as the one Sabean was fielding he doesn't get any slack for injuries either - giving a combined 1090 at-bats to Jason Ellison, Michael Tucker, Lance Niekro, and Deivi Cruz is a problem of depth, not of random chance. It was a miserable season to watch and I was amazed at the time that Sabean didn't get the axe following it.

I thought it might be interesting to look over Brian Sabean's recent tenure as Giants GM to take a look at what, exactly, he's done.

Since baseball is a "what have you done for me lately" business I'll take a look at the past three full seasons (starting with the 2004 pre-season) and run down his major transactions, along with my review of them. Unfortunately, that starts just in time for the Trade Which Shall Not Be Named.

November 14th, 2003

Traded Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser to the Minnesota Twins for A.J. Pierzynski

So, we all know this trade was bad, historically bad, but let's see just how bad it is. Even assuming the Twins jet crashes tomorrow (into wherever Liriano is rehabbing) and not taking 2007 performance into account, Joe Nathan has accumulated 20.3 WARP, Liriano 7.1, and Boof Bonser 3.3. In his one season with the Giants, A.J. Pierzynski was worth 3.8 WARP. That means that, even setting aside the bright futures of Liriano and Bonser, the Twins have garnered just short of 31 wins from the trade while the Giants about 4.

So, yes, we've established that the trade was just sickeningly bad, but maybe these players all came out of nowhere? What had these players done when Sabean traded them? Joe Nathan was a 28-year-old reliever coming off a season where he pitched 79 innings with a 2.96 ERA and a shiny 88/33 K/BB ratio. A closer in the making, certainly, but not necessarily a guy you'd expect to be quite as valuable as he ended up being. Francisco Liriano was coming off a shoulder injury that cost him much of the season but had a strong season at low A ball before that and was well-liked by scouts but was considered a guy with high upside rather than a particularly sure-thing type of prospect. Bonser was a former first round pick who had quietly posted very solid numbers climbing through the minors. In many ways he was the opposite of Liriano: not a guy viewed to have a very high ceiling but a guy who seemed very likely to have at least some kind of a major-league career.

Pierzynski, on the other hand was a 26-year-old catcher coming off a season where he hit .312/.360/.464 - definitely a valuable commodity. It was definitely a upward spike in production, particularly walks and power, but it was at an age where that seemed sustainable. He was certainly worth Nathan - relievers are very volatile quantities, and the case could definitely have been made at the time that it was worth Liriano and Bonser as well. We'll be haunted by the trade for many, many years, and it may turn out to be one of the worst in baseball history, but it was, at worst, a slight overpay at the time.

Verdict: It turned out so badly that I hesitate to call it a good move, so I'll just call it even - Sabean traded upside for certainty, and while he didn't even get that, he had no reason to think he wouldn't. The less defensible side to this move actually comes later.

December 2nd, 2003

Re-signed J.T. Snow to a one-year contract worth $1.5 million with a club option for 2005

Snow was coming off a season where he hit .273/.387/.418 - not a terrible season but nothing special in a league where the average first baseman hit 278/.361/.477.

Verdict: The money isn't really a problem and Snow's on-base ability kept him from hurting you offense, so I'll tentatively call this a good move. The team did need some power in the off-season though, and first base would have been an ideal place to get it.

December 7th, 2004

Signed Michael Tucker to a one-year contract worth $1.5 million

Tucker was coming off a year where he hit .262/.331/.440 for the Kansas City Royals, below average for a starting outfielder. Still, the money wasn't much, the problem was what this deal represented: first of all, thinking that Tucker, Snow, and friends were the pieces to make this team contend rather than going after Vladimir Guerrero, and the second was signing Tucker prior to the arbitration deadline in order to intentionally forfeit the first round draft pick. Thus, the cost of Tucker was not just $1.5 million, it was the cost of filling an outfield cost with his production and it was the cost of losing that draft pick. The Giants would likely have (according to Brian Sabean) taken a high-school pitcher. Top prospect Yovani Gallardo was taken by the Brewers early in the second round and Texas took Eric Hurley 30th overall - both would have been on the board when the Giants came time to pick. Sure, they might have taken one of the guys who flamed out, but was it really more necessary to pay that $1.5 million to Michael Tucker than a chance at Yovani Gallardo?

Verdict: Bad move on talent (Tucker had a .765 OPS vs. a league average of .810 for a RF) and on general principle (forfeiting the draft pick, expecting Marquis Grissom, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Michael Tucker to add up to a productive right side of the outfield).

January 9th, 2004

Signed Brett Tomko to a one-year contract worth $1.2 million

Tomko didn't exactly endear himself to San Francisco fans, but this wasn't a particularly bad deal - at worst he seemed like fifth starter material and he actually managed to post a 4.01 ERA, much better than anybody would have expected.

Verdict: Good, not great, move.

July 30th, 2004

Traded Felix Rodriguez for Ricky Ledee and Alfredo Simon

This deal was a headscratcher from the start - sure, nobody could have foreseen that Lidee would be quite as godawful as he was, but it never made sense even at the time: Rodriguez had been one of the team's most valuable relievers and while an upgrade was certainly possible in the outfield adding another fourth outfielder to the Grissom/Tucker/Mohr mix was certainly not the answer. Sure, Felix Rodriguez ended up falling off a cliff after the deal, but that doesn't redeem Sabean for basically treading water at the deadline and paying the price.

Verdict: Bad, not terrible, move.

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So, wrapping up the big 2004 pre-season and regular-season moves, Sabean comes in with one good move, two bad moves, and one move that, while not a poor decision at the time, has ended up being one of the worst in history. This really doesn't give the right picture though; the problem with Sabean was not the moves he made, it was the moves he didn't make. The team payed Michael Tucker, Marquis Grissom, and Jeffrey Hammonds nearly $6 million to hit a combined .264/.334/.426 when, for less than $6 million more they could have had Vladimir Guerrero. That's less than Kirk Rueter's 2004 salary. Beyond that, rather than buy big at the trade deadline to make a run at the post-season or sell high on the team's many veterans, he really did neither, acquiring a fourth outfielder who wouldn't have done much to the team's chances even if he hadn't hit. By contrast, the win-now Cubs added Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton for Justin Jones, Francis Beltran, Brendan Harris, and Alex Gonzalez and the sell-high Marlins traded Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir.

So, since I have a penchant for writing huge posts like these, I figured I'd take a look at the Giants' performance so far and rate individual players performances with a buy, sell, or hold. These aren't with regards to trades or anything, just with maintaining those levels of performance over the course of the season. As always, I'm happy to discuss any of my rankings or predictions, especially since I think a lot of people aren't going to be happy with what I have to say about the pitching staff. Also, if any of you are unfamiliar with the statistics I'm using BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play, a measure of how often a ball put in play goes for a hit for individual pitchers. There are some factors that can influence it, but by and large it hovers at around .290 for major-league pitchers.

April Giants Review

Overall Record: 13-11
Pythagorean Record: 12-12

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Starting Rotation: 156.1 IP, 3.68 RA, 135 H (7.8 H/9), 86 K (5.0 K/9), 69 BB (4.0 BB/9), 6 HR (0.3 HR/9)

Barry Zito: 31.1 IP, 4.02 RA, 26 H (7.46 H/9), 19 K (5.5 K/9), 14 BB (4.0 BB/9), 1 HRA (0.3 HR/9), .260 BABIP

Verdict: Sell - So far in the season Zito has posted a K rate lower than last year's and a BB rate higher, his ERA surviving thanks to a miniscule home run rate and a very good hit rate (the latter helped out by his low BABIP), although Zito. Now, his peripherals will likely not remain quite as poor (switching from the AL to the NL, at the very least, should help here) but there's also no way his home run rate or hit rate stay so low.

Matt Cain: 35 IP, 1.54 RA, 12 H (3.1 H/9), 23 K (5.9 K/9), 17 BB (4.4 BB/9), 2 HR (0.5 HR/9), .118 BABIP

Verdict: Sell - Obviously he won't maintain a 1.54 ERA or a .120 BAA, but beyond the unsustainable hit rate I've actually been a little disappointed with him. His strikeout rate has been subpar this season and his walk rate high, it's just been that impossibly low hit rate that keep it from hurting him. I fully expect his K rate to climb significantly and his walk rate to drop a bit over the course of the season, but I thought it was worth noting that his start hasn't been quite as amazing as it seems. He's had a big helping of luck to go along with his skill. A note about his BABIP, although .118 is clearly impossible, Cain does have the hallmarks of a pitcher who will be able to keep his below average over the course of his career: extreme fly-ball tendencies with a large number of infield flies, a strikeout pitcher, and one of those guys who just has a knack for keeping his hit rate lower than expected, an ability shared by only the greatest of pitchers (well, and knuckleballers and other freaks, but I prefer the Greg Maddux comparisions).

Matt Morris: 32.1 IP, 4.45 RA, 36 H (10.0 H/9), 14 K (3.9 K/9), 15 BB (4.2 BB/9), 1 HRA (0.3 HR/9), .315 BABIP

Verdict: Sell. Sell. Sell. Do I even have to tell you? The most astounding thing about Morris's start to the season is that his ERA isn't in the fives, hell, he's actually been hit unlucky, take a look at the BABIP. His deceptive start has been due to a couple of factors, only one of which he can be credited for: like the rest of the staff his HR rate has been low. He's had a good one since moving to San Francisco, but he won't keep it as low as it's been. The other factor is his four unearned runs. Now, his strikeout rates, while still bad, will get better than they have been, but Morris is still an implosion waiting to happen. I'm more confident about Russ Ortiz.

Noah Lowry: 31.2 IP, 4.26 RA, 28 H (6.5 H/9), 16 K (4.5 K/9), 16 BB (4.5 K/9), 1 HRA (0.3 HR/9), .259 BABIP

Verdict: Sell. Yes, it seems most of the staff is a sell, but that will happen when your success has been largely the result of unsustainable home run and hit rates. Other than, obviously, Matt Cain, Lowry is the poster-child for this as his strikeout rate has been very mediocre, his walk rate high, but his .259 BABIP a good thirty points lower than you'd expect it to be. Like Morris he's a good chance to start regressing immediately, and coupled with his plummeting K rate last year and the fact that lefties with fringe stuff always walk a very fine line we have an extremely alarming trend.

Russ Ortiz: 26 IP, 4.50 RA, 33 H (11.4 K/9), 14 K (4.8 K/9), 7 BB (2.4 BB/9), 1 HRA (0.3 HR/9), .360 BABIP

Verdict: Hold. And here we have proof that we are living in Bizzaro World, Russ Ortiz's effectiveness so far is pretty much the most "real;" if anything he's been victimized by bad luck if you take a look at his huge BABIP. That said, there's definitely likely to be some change on the horizon; his K and BB rates will likely both climb from where they are and his hit rate should drop significantly. His HR rate, like the rest of the staff's is also due for an upward adjustment, but overall if he's really back to his old self he hasn't done anything to deter those predictions that he could be good for 180 league-average innings from the #5 slot. Now, there's obviously an implosion chance given just how awful he was in the last two seasons and how he'd been declining before then, but nothing has transpired so far in the season to make that any more likely than it was a month ago.

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Bullpen: 56.2 IP, 4.13 RA, 58 H (9.2 H/9), 39 K (6.2 K/9), 22 BB (3.5 BB/9), 7 HRA (1.1 HR/9),

Verdict: Hold, more or less. The bullpen is a fair mix of players who have been hit lucky (Taschner, Hennessey, Benitez) and hit-unlucky (Sanchez, Chulk). As a result, while few pitchers ERAs so far reflect their levels of performance (common amongst relievers), overall I would say they were about right. Going forward, I really like what I've seen from Kevin Correia, deceptively high ERA be damned, and Jonathan Sanchez while I expect to see Hennessey and Taschner particularly fall back down to earth. Benitez needs to lower his walk rate but it hasn't all been illusions on his part - that strong strikeout rate gives hope to the thought that with his health back he may finally be an effective reliever for us.

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Overall Offense: .255/.311/.398 with 42 2B, 8 3B, 19 HR, 66 BB, and 11/7 SB/CS.

C Bengie Molina: .291/.325/.430 with 8 2B, 1 HR, and 3 BB.

Verdict: Hold. Molina has been a pleasant surprise for me; I worried that the more expansive outfield in AT&T might kill his power stroke but he's made up for any drop in HR power by stroking doubles at a nice rate. He's surpassed by expectations slightly but not in a manner that seems impossible for him to keep up, and I'm optimistic that he can continue this pace more or less for the course of a season. One thing I'd forgotten to take into account for my projections was that moving from the AL to the NL is easier for hitters as well, which seems to have been reflected so far. His plate discipline is as terrible as the Giants are accustomed to, but at as weak a position as catcher that's really not as much of a problem.

1B Rich Aurilia: .287/.320/.415 with 8 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, and 5 BB.

Verdict: Hold, more or less. Moving from that bandbox in Cincinnati seems to have effected Aurilia's home run stroke so far, but he's been a doubles machine like Molina to help make up for it. I'd expect his OBP to climb a smidgen over the course of the season, and while I've been relatively happy with Richie's performance it is still below average for a first baseman and I'd hope that Sabean takes this into account when he's looking for a bat at the trading deadline or before.

1B Ryan Klesko: .282/.333/.359 with 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, and 3 BB.

Verdict: Buy. I see his OBP climbing over the rest of the season as he's generally been a patient hitter, but I can see a very real possibility that with his power stroke gone (back injuries will do that to a hitter) he won't get as many pitches out of the strike zone and even that may desert him. If he continues to hit as poorly as he has I hope Sabean will consider cutting bait; carrying as many first basemen as we do hampers defensive flexibility and Klesko really only "plays" the outfield to the same extend as, say, Kevin Frandsen could.

2B Ray Durham: .279/.333/.430 with 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 BB, and 1/2 SB/CS.

Verdict: Buy. The biggest buy in the lineup, even if Durham doesn't hit my (or PECOTA's) optimistic expectations for the season he should definitely do better than he has thus far. He's looked really ugly at the plate in the last few games but looked better earlier in the season and has a long track record of success while not possessing the type of skill set that tends to really drop off a cliff at a more advanced age or anything. I'm not too worried about Ray-Ray.

3B Pedro Feliz: .236/.257/.485 with 3 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, and 2 BB.

Verdict: Hold. His batting average and OBP is bound to get higher than it is right now (I mean, nobody could really make that many outs, right?) but it's not likely he can maintain such a high SLG surrounded by such a bad line either. I don't understand why you ever throw him a fastball, seriously. Fortunately, Giants fans and Sabean alike have hopefully come to realize that third base is a spot that needs upgrading, so a first baseman acquisition would probably mean Aurilia getting a large amount of playing time at the dismally cold corner.

SS Omar Vizquel: .233/.281/.278 with 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 6 BB, and 1/1 SB/CS.

Verdict Buy, but I'm worred. Vizquel is at an age where guys run into walls and his stroke has looked very bad. Even today, he had a couple of hits against the Rockies but also turned in a swing against a high fastball that made Pedro Feliz look like Ted Williams. I'm rooting for him for sure, but not signing him to an extension is looking like an even better idea than it did at the time.

LF Barry Bonds: .356/.536/.814 with 3 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 23 BB, and 1/1 SB/CS.

Verdict: Hold or slight sell. It seems unlikely that Bonds would put up a 1.350 OPS over the course of the season, but with the IBBs starting to make their return it's plausible that he puts up an OBP-heavy enough one to make the rest of the season pretty close to equal in productiveness. He's friggin' incredible.

CF Dave Roberts: .243/.300/.365 with 0 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 6 BB, and 7/0 SB/CS.

Verdict: Buy. Another strong buy, Roberts's bat ought to heat up, especially if Bochy is more aggressive about sitting him against lefties, and those stolen bases and triples show that his speed hasn't gone. You worry about a player at his age who relies so much on speed, but as long as that doesn't show signs of decline than I'm not really worred. I think my pre-season prediction of .289/.360/.409 is still within reach, if maybe a slight bit optimistic now.

RF Randy Winn: .272/.315/.407 with 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 BB, and 1/3 SB/CS.

Verdict: Slight buy. Winn's bat has been limp for over a year now and it's pretty clear that even with the defense he is not an asset as a starting right fielder. The only possible positive you can spin that into is that it gives us even more flexibility when trying to acquire an impact bat. That said, I do expect his OBP to climb a bit, and boy is that where our team needs a boost. Oh, and a note for Bochy: RANDY WINN IS NOT A GOOD BASE STEALER. Don't run him if you don't like outs.

Overall: I expect an improvement to the lineup towards the low end of average, but it's definitely a point of weakness for the team. I expect the rotation to fall back to earth, hard, as unpopular a view as that may be, which is why I feel it is absolutely integral that Tim Lincecum join the big-league rotation as soon as possible. Ideally we should trade one of our two overachieving pitchers, Morris and Lowry, with my biggest hope being Lowry as part of a package for a Matt Murton or Ryan Church type. Those deals seem plausible to me. Regardless, any trade of those two for an above-average bat at first base or right field would be a big improvement, and combining that with opening a spot for Tim Lincecum in the rotation could even be enough to contend strongly. Talent-wise, this team right now is NOT the best in the division, we need a lot of things going right for us and which of these seems more likely to you: Noah Lowry and Matt Morris continue to post ERAs in the threes for the rest of the season or Tim Lincecum does his best Francisco Liriano impression all over the NL. Think about it.

By request, I've looked over Cain pitch-by-pitch as well.

The basics: 20 IP, 4 R, 1.80 ERA, 2 HRA (0.9 HR/9), 8 H (3.6 H/9), 9 BB (4.1 BB/9), 17 K (7.7 K/9)

In three starts he has faced 77 batters and retired 58 (75%) of them. He has thrown 315 pitches of which:

123 have been taken for balls (39%)
47 have been taken for called strikes (15%)
145 have been swung at (46%)

Of those that have been swung at:

69 have been fouled off (47%)
27 have been whiffed on (19%)
49 have been put in play (34%)

Of those that have been put in play
12 have been hit on the ground (25%)
28 have been hit in the air (57%) - Of these, 4 (17%) have been pop-ups
9 have been hit for line drives (18%)

Of his 17 strikeouts, 13 (76%) have been swinging and 4 (24%) have been looking.

Proof that the Murray Chasses of the world complaining that stats detract from the enjoyment of the game are as full of crap as they seem, I was able to take my mind off of a tough loss by going over Lincecum's numbers in some additional detail.

The basics: 18.2 IP, 0 R, 9 H (4.3 H/9), 5 BB (2.4 BB/9), 28 K (13.5 K/9)

In three starts he has faced 68 batters and retired 54 (79%) of them. He has thrown 263 pitches of which:

94 have been taken for balls (36%)
53 have been taken for called strikes (20%)
116 have been swung at (44%)

Of those that have been swung at:

29 have been fouled off (25%)
52 have been whiffed on (45%)
35 have been put in play (30%)

Of those that have been put in play

19 have been hit on the ground (54%)
10 have been hit in the air (29%)
6 have been hit for line drives (17%)

Up next we have a showdown in the desert as I compare the Giants to the Diamondbacks. Bonus points to the Snakes for finally getting rid of their terrible purple jerseys. I go to SFSU, so I know just how terrible purple looks on everything.

Lineup

C Chris Snyder vs. C Bengie Molina - I think Snyder is the Opening Day catcher for Arizona, but the organization is high on Montero so I'd expect him to get more than the average backup catcher PT. Regardless, they are fairly similar in value, so it shouldn't effect the comparision too much. Speaking of similar in value, the two are about identical with the bat to Molina, particularly if you adjust for park effects, and while there is the possibility that Snyder will collapse back to his '05 numbers or Montero will struggle against major-league pitching, I don't think both those things happening is very likely. Defensively Snyder has a very good arm and Montero is about average or a little below, while Molina is on the decline.

Verdict: Push

1B Ryan Klesko/Rich Aurilia vs. 1B Conor Jackson - For every hitting prospect we don't have, the Diamondbacks have three, and they are so stacked that I'll forgive the logical impossibility of my previous statement. Jackson is the poster-boy for polished college hitters, and though he lacks real star potential (it's hard to hit enough to be a star at first base), he's exactly what the Giants never seem to have: a reliable, average to above-average hitter at first base. I'm expecting him to build on his '05 season (as his minor league numbers show he's capable of), but I don't think he has the power bat to be a real breakout candidate. If Klesko is able to hit a .370 OBP and play regularly he'll cut this edge down a bit. Defensively, I've no clue about Jackson, but I think he's at least average.

Verdict: Edge to Arizona

2B Orlando Hudson vs. Ray Durham - I'm not quite as optimistic about Hudson as PECOTA is; I see that OBP prediction as 10-15 points too high, although his power approach is perfect for Chase Field and I think the SLG is about right. That makes the Durham the better hitter by a not inconsequential margin, but Hudson's not even in the lineup for his bat. He's one of (if not the) best defensive second sackers in the business, while Durham is average at best at this point in his career.

Verdict: Slight edge to Arizona

3B Chad Tracy vs. 3B Pedro Feliz - The Diamondbacks roll up guys like this to snort other teams prospects; how many slightly-above average position players with sock do you need? Third base is a pretty stacked position, so Tracy is no star, but he's a cheap masher for a team that has power up and down the lineup. He should probably sit against most tougher lefties, and if artfully managed (or outright platooned) he could have some very nice rate stats in 100-125 fewer PAs than an everyday starter load. Defensively he's slightly below average, but with an OBP more than 50 points higher than Pedro Feliz that's not going to make the different.

Verdict: Big edge to Arizona

SS Stephen Drew vs. Omar Vizquel - I'm high on all the Diamondbacks young major-league ready guys, frankly (and looking at their numbers how can you not be?) but Drew is the one I question most coming into the season. If he's good, he'll be real good, as he showed last season, but I think there's a better chance that he'll spend time in the minors than Quentin or Young. His hitting approach isn't as refined and he's taken advantage of hitter-friendly parks to pad his stat lines. Defensively, he's close to average, but if he hits his upside with the bat he could be a lot worse and still play every day. I'm giving this as an edge to Arizona, but with the caveat that I think there's about a 75% chance he's significantly better than Vizquel and a 25% chance he's significantly worse.

Verdict: Edge to Arizona

LF Eric Byrnes vs. LF Barry Bonds - This is the match-up we always get to feel good about, and Arizona is no exception. Byrnes is stretched as a starter, although as a fourth outfielder who hits lefties well and can handle center he'd have a lot of value. As it is, I expect a sub .335 OBP which is very poor for a corner outfielder and no more than average power production from the spot, which is actually below average given the home park. Defensively he's okay in center and above average in a corner, but not nearly enough to make up for the gap between his bat and Barry Frickin' Bonds'.

Verdict: Big edge to San Francisco

CF Chris Young vs. CF Dave Roberts - Of all the twenty-somethings on the Diamondbacks roster, there's not one (and probably not two) that I'd take over Chris Young. He's got power, some patience, excellent defense, speed, and I heard he's a really great kisser. The only knock is that he isn't a world-beater in the contact department, hitting in the .270s with plenty of strikeouts in his minor-league career. I see a .270/.360/.515 season, which is actually lower than his PECOTA. Roberts might match that in the on-base department and is a better base stealer but the difference in defense and huge defense in power give the advantage to the Snakes.

Verdict: Edge to Arizona

RF Carlos Quentin vs. RF Randy Winn - What's that? Another polished, low-risk college hitter ready to produce in the major-leagues? Maybe if we steal some of these guys and replace them with what we call prospects they won't notice. As I've mentioned before, I'm not optimistic that Winn will bounce all the way back to his career averages, but I have him getting pretty close and it still doesn't close the gap much between his bat and Quentin's. Defensively Winn has been serviceable in center (although a bit stretched), so I imagine he'll be a plus right fielder and Quentin is closer to average, but it's still not much of a contest.

Verdict: Edge to Arizona

Overall Lineup
Ouch. The Diamondbacks are swimming in young hitters, and for all the wishful thinking about them not being able to transition to the minor leagues they are a better bet to succeed than the Ryan Kleskos and Russ Ortiz's of the world. I have the aggregate starter averages working out to .282/.360/.485 for Arizona and the aforementioned .280/.356/.439 for the Giants. This is closer than PECOTA has it, largely thanks to an optimistic Bonds projection, but the 45 points in slugging (as park-influenced as they may be) are going to give Arizona a bit of an edge.

Offensive Depth
The Diamondbacks have some relatively untried rookies (although contrary to general baseball belief rookie hitters are not all that risky), and the Giants an old, injury-prone team, so depth is always going to be an issue. Again, the second person on each depth chart:

C Eliezer Alfonzo vs. Miguel Montero - Alfonzo is a simply useless hitter (most backups and a fair share of starters are), while Montero is likely to get a platoon share of at-bats. Point to Arizona.

1B Kleskaurilia/Niekro vs. Tony Clark/CIF Robby Hammock - Not a strength for the Diamondbacks, but really not a strength for us either. Tony Clark is probably Niekro's upside, but neither he nor Hammock are going to get on base enough to be a strength with the bat. Push if Niekro is the replacement, advantage to the Giants if it's Klesko/Aurilia.

2B Kevin Frandsen vs. Alberto Callaspo - Callaspo would probably be starting if it weren't for Hudson's defense and lately, offense. As is, he might be the best backup infielder in the league. Advantage to the Diamondbacks.

3B Aurilia/Frandsen vs. Brian Barden - Barden is an organization guy, but not a useless one. He's a decent little hitter who doesn't embarrass himself with the glove and wouldn't kill the team filling in for a few weeks. If Aurilia is the replacement it's a push, if Frandsen it's an advantage to Arizona.

SS Frandsen/Aurilia vs. MIF Alberto Callaspo - Callaspo can actually play shortstop, something that most don't think Frandsen can do regularly and Aurilia wasn't all that good at back when he was young and chipper. Point to Arizona.

OF Linden/Klesko/Sweeney/Ellison vs. Hairston/Krynzel/DaVanon- Pretty similar here: Hairston and Linden are both semi-prospects who have yet to hit in the majors, Ellison and Krynzel have similar skill sets, neither of which include hitting, and DaVanon and Klesko are both vets who might have some value and might be entirely useless. Push.

Overall Offense
The Diamondbacks win in depth, although not by as much as the Dodgers, and combining that with their power-studded lineup gives them the advantage in runs scored 820 to 770. That might seem like a bigger difference than the aggregate starter lines would indicate, but keep in mind applying the park effects to everybody else who is going to get any at-bats as well. PECOTA has them at 835, but is more optimistic about a few players than I am. Still, Arizona does feature a powerful and very young lineup that will likely terrorize us for years to come.

Starting Rotation

Barry Zito vs. Brandon Webb - Opinions on Zito around here range from ace to #3 starter - my own opinion is that he's in the lower tier of #1s. Unfortunately, Webb is in the upper tier - one of the best pitchers in baseball and as good a pick as any for the NL Cy Young next year. He's every bit the durable workhorse Zito is and I have him throwing just as many innings with an ERA more than a half a run lower.

Verdict: Edge to Arizona

Matt Cain vs. Randy Johnson - There are plenty of reasons why I think Randy Johnson will bounce back: his surgery went well, his peripherals last year pointed towards an ERA in the low 4s, and he's returning to the weaker league. If he's hurt and can't play that's one thing, but if he does pitch I think he'll do it pretty damn well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him post a lower ERA than Cain (and I love Cain), but we've got to hedge our bets with health so I have him doing it in quite a few less innings. I imagine this will be my most controversial prediction in this entry.

Verdict: Slight edge to San Francisco

Noah Lowry vs. Livan Hernandez - My prediction for Lowry is optimistic, possibly overly-so, but even if he continues to struggle he'll probably beat Livan if he stays healthy. I expect Hernandez to eat up a ton of innings (more valuable than you'd think, especially if your bullpen isn't a strength), but to do so posting an ERA not very far under 5.00, thanks in large part to his fly-ball tendancies in a park that's not very forgiving towards them.

Verdict: Edge to San Francisco

Matt Morris vs. Doug Davis - Both very much bottom of the rotation pitchers, but both not without their value. I think Davis is a bit better than Morris though, even taking into account pitching in the bandbox of Chase Field.

Verdict: Slight edge to Arizona

Russ Ortiz vs. Edgar Gonzalez - Gonzalez has pretty good control and puts up good ratios but he doesn't have a whole hell of a lot of upside. Still, he's been consistent in the high minors and had some success last year, so he rounds out the three league-average innings-eaters that make up the bottom half of Arizona's rotation.

Verdict: Slight edge to Arizona

Rotation Depth

Jonathan Sanchez vs. Juan Cruz - Like Sanchez, Cruz bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation in '05, and like Sanchez he had a lot more success in the 'pen, which is probably where he'll stay. Push, in that I don't think either of them should be the first to get a call.

Brad Hennessey vs. Enrique Gonzalez - The younger E. Gonzalez is pretty similar to the elder; good ratios but not really a strikeout artist or a sinkerballer. Enrique is a much harder-thrower though, so it's easy to imagine more upside, so I'll give Arizona a slight edge in this department.

Tim Lincecum vs. Dustin Nippert - Nippert is starting to get old for a prospect, though I still think he can have some success in the major-leagues. Seabiscuit, on the other hand, is a stud who I'm sure can have some success in the major-leagues, barring injury.

Overall Rotation
Both teams come in at almost identical in this department, the Diamondbacks front three with a 4.23 ERA and the Giants with a 4.24. This is optimistic compared to PECOTA, which has Arizona about thirty points ahead in that department. Projecting pitchers, unlike hitters, is still as much art as science, although PECOTA surely has a better track record than I do, so this is probably a bit pessimistic for Arizona.

Bullpen

Armando Benitez vs. Jose Valverde - Both of these guys have been erratic in terms of actual success, but Valverde is younger, throws harder, and was actually better last season, even if his 5.84 ERA looks a whole lot worse than Benitez's 3.52. It's pretty close, although Valverde has a whole lot of upside as he flashed in 2005.

Verdict: Slight edge to Arizona

Kevin Correia vs. Brandon Lyon - Lyon's not bad, but last season was his only good one in three and I think Correia has a run of a few years as a reliable reliever ahead of him.

Verdict: Slight edge to San Francisco

Brian Wilson vs. Brandon Medders - Last year was a breakout of sorts for Medders after dealing with arm troubles in the few years prior. He's not dominant, but his track record looks reliable and Wilson's control is just too all-over-the-place at this point to bet on him.

Verdict: Advantage to Arizona

Overall Pitching
The bullpen isn't a strength for Arizona, but it's not really a weakness either which is more than can be said for the Giants. It's still pretty tight though, I have the Diamondbacks allowing 760 runs to the Giants 770.

Overall
The Giants have a 0 run differential in my predictions, so it doesn't take a math whiz to put their record at 81-81. The Diamondbacks are at +55, which gives them a Pythagorean record of 87-75, one game worse than PECOTA has them at.

Predicted NL West Standings
Arizona Diamondbacks: 87-75
Los Angeles Dodgers: 82-80
San Francisco Giants: 81-81
San Diego Padres: TBA
Colorado Rockies: TBA

This will be the first of four diaries where I compare the Giants to the rest of the division and see how I think things stack up. As always, I happily welcome discussion about any of my rankings, and can share the actual nuts-and-bolts numbers I'm using on request.

First up, we'll have an epic battle between Old and Evil as we go head-to-head against the Dodgers.

Lineup

C Russell Martin vs. C Bengie Molina - Fairly similar with the bat; Martin is more disciplined, Molina packs a little more punch. I see Martin putting up an OBP around .350 and Molina putting up one under .320, more than making up for the twentyish point gap in SLG I have predicted. On the other hand, I'm actually a little more pessimistic about Molina than PECOTA is; I think his medium-power bat is a poor fit with our relatively large outfield and his dismal speed will keep him from supplanting that with more doubles. If he does hit his PECOTA or surpass it by a little than the offensive edge will work out to be closer to negligible. Behind the plate Martin is a much better defender; Molina's defense has been on the decline and he's not very athletic so I wouldn't expect him to improve it much at 32.

Verdict: Edge to Los Angeles

1B Ryan Klesko/Rich Aurilia vs. 1B Nomar Garciaparra - FWIW, I have Aurilia and Klesko averaged together for a .270/.353/.430 line; I think Klesko's days as a power hitter are pretty much over. This is a closer match than it looks like on paper; expecting a slight decline from Garciaparra has the Kleskaurilia platoon actually coming out ahead in the on-base department. Garciaparra is a better power hitter, and though fragile has an adequate backup plan in the form of James Loney while the Giants backup plans range from Mark Sweeney to Damon Minor. Defensively I think Aurilia is about average and Klesko likely a butcher (he has been everywhere else, why not first), but I don't think Garciaparra is a great defender either so I'll call it a wash.

Verdict: Optimistic push

2B Ray Durham vs. 2B Jeff Kent - PECOTA sees something here that I don't predicting Durham to actually beat his 2006 performance and have a fairly significant edge over Kent with the bat. I'm guessing that it likes the uptick in power and patience, two skills that tend to age well, but it also sees him falling short of 500 PAs which helps explain the .304 batting average. I'm not quite so optimistic; I think Kent's consistency and health will give him the edge and that his edge in defense is not negligible either. Still, food for thought.

Verdict: Slight edge to Los Angeles

3B Pedro Feliz vs. 3B Wilson Betemit - I'm not sure if L.A. is going forward with Betemit (I think LaRoche is the better player), but since Feliz was the worst-hitting qualifying third-sacker in all of baseball last year it would be pretty difficult for them to NOT win this match-up. For what it's worth, I don't think Betemit is much to get excited about though, so the Dodgers really waste a chance to gain some serious ground in this position.

Verdict: Slight edge to Los Angeles

SS Omar Vizquel vs. SS Rafael Furcal - I think this is closer than you might expect; Furcal and Vizquel are similar hitters and if there wasn't the decade age difference I'd say Vizquel was the better one. Still, this is close to a wash with the bat unless Furcal really builds on last season's success. Unfortunately, as much as it hurts me to say it, Furcal is the flat-out better defender at this point in their respective careers. Vizquel has amazing hands and instincts but falls short in range and especially arm strength.

Verdict: Edge to Los Angeles

LF Barry Bonds vs. LF Andre Ethier - Ethier was a surprise for the Dodgers; he'd raked in the low minors but didn't have a whole lot of projection, and even that big season doesn't change my overall opinion: he'll never be significantly above average corner outfielder. Lucky for us, that gives us an edge in this department; even the more pessimistic Bonds projections (and mine is not particularly) give his huge OBP a significant edge over Ethier's .350-.360 that I'm predicting.

Verdict: Big edge to San Francisco

CF Dave Roberts vs. CF Juan Pierre - This is the Dodgers' Pedro Feliz; the position where management will foolishly let a lacking hitter suck up PAs while they could find a perfectly serviceable alternative almost anywhere (in this case Matt Kemp, who would probably be worth several wins over Pierre). His big salary and misleading batting average will keep him playing every day and Dave Roberts will quietly be a better hitter, fielder, and base stealer.

Verdict: Edge to San Francisco

RF Randy Winn vs. RF Luis Gonzalez - Another position where the Dodgers could likely find an adequate in-system replacement but will instead go the savvy veteran route. Still, Gonzalez isn't completely washed-up or anything and Winn is a pretty bad hitter for a right-fielder. His superior ability to make contact and better defense give him an advantage over Gonzo though, and I see a pretty decent bounce-back from Winn so this is another point to the good guys.

Verdict: Slight edge to San Francisco

Overall Lineup
Things look bad starting from the infield, but the Dodgers offense really gets much worse as you move away from the front of the diamond. That's good in the short term, bad in the long term since offense is a lot easier to come by in the outfield and even Ned Colletti is going to be able to get more production than Luis Gonzalez eventually. My aggregate starter averages actually give the Giants the advantage .280/.356/.439 to .277/.348/.433 (obviously those are just for the sake of comparision; I don't expect the teams to actually hit that well because it doesn't take into account pitchers and bench players). I wish that was all there was too it, but unfortunately the eight guys you trot out there on opening day don't get all those at-bats, which brings us to depth

Offensive Depth
This is where the Dodgers build their edge. Let's compare the second person on the depth chart at each position:

C Eliezer Alfonzo vs. C Mike Lieberthal - Not even really close here, I have Alfonzo at a sub .300 OBP and Lieberthal could probably start on quite a few teams (though he probably couldn't stay healthy an entire season doing so).

1B Kleskaurilia/Sweeney vs. 1B James Loney - Since we have a platoon here (albeit a very injury prone one) I'll just assume a slight drop-off in production here if Sweeney or Aurilia were unavailable. I don't think Loney has star potential, but even an optimistic opinion of Sweeney makes this a push. This is leaving out Olmedo Saenz, who has always raked and will surely get his 100 ABs somewhere.

2B Kevin Frandsen vs. Ramon Martinez/Marlon Anderson - Martinez isn't a half-bad comp to Frandsen, but at this point in his career I give Frandsen the slight edge. They are both excellent backup infielders though; defensively versatile and not Neifi-esque with the bat. Anderson isn't the player he appeared to be last season, but is a solid bench option as well.

3B Aurilia/Frandsen vs. Andy LaRoche - This is a big advantage to the Dodgers; LaRoche is a stud and we can only hope he remains the #2 option for as much of the year as possible because I don't see any way he's a worse player than Betemit.

SS Frandsen/Aurilia vs. Martinez/Betemit - Both these teams better hope their starters stay healthy here because they don't really have any natural shortstops left. I call this one a wash, but it's going to be some painful defense to watch if Furcal or Vizquel go down. I know Furcal has sprained his ankle this spring and may miss Opening Day, but I didn't think it was expected to keep him out for an extended period, if I'm wrong here please correct me.

OF Linden/Klesko/Sweeney/Ellison vs. Repko/Kemp - Big advantage to the Dodgers here, barring a breakout season from Todd Linden and I'm taking those spring innings with a grain of salt. Even if he's better than expected, Kemp is a genuine blue-chip prospect and a natural center fielder to boot. Fortunately, Pierre is healthy (yes, we're rooting for one of the Dodgers "star" acquisitions to stay healthy), so Kemp will have to split time between the corners. Defensively, Klesko is a mess, Sweeney is not really an outfielder, and Winn is the only other center fielder we have and he's stretched there.

Overall Offense
With the big advantage in depth (and it runs beyond the major league roster as well), the Dodgers make up for one of the weakest starting outfields in baseball to nearly make this a wash; I have the Giants scoring 770 runs and the Dodgers 762. Both teams have the ability to change this; benching Pedro Feliz would be worth a handful for the Giants, starting Kemp would be worth a big handful for the Dodgers. Health is critical here too: both teams would suffer big time if they lost their middle infielders, although both can work through injuries to the corners. In the outfield, Bonds is critical (and when has he not been?), but if Linden does step up it could make it easier to absorb the loss of Winn or Roberts. Staying healthy is definitely a bigger concern to the Giants though with their lack of depth and heavy reliance on Bonds and Durham.

Starting Rotation

Barry Zito vs. Jason Schmidt - My opinions on Schmidt are well-known around here; I think Giants fans have been rewriting the history books about just what Schmidt provided to the team and predictions of him crashing-and-burning are based more out of spite than logic. On pure performance, I'd even go so far as to call this nearly a wash, but Zito's health gives him the edge. I have Zito besting Schmidt's ERA by less than a tenth of a run, albeit taking park factors into account.

Verdict: Edge to San Francisco (but not a huge one)

Matt Cain vs. Derek Lowe - Could you have more different pitchers here? The extreme fly-ball strikeout-artist youngster Cain against the crafty sinkerballing veteran Lowe. I love Cain, but I'm not predicting his breakout season here; he threw a lot of pitches last season and tired noticeably as a result so I wouldn't be surprised with some DL time and our outfield defense is below average while L.A.'s infield is pretty strong. I'm still giving us an edge, but it's not a big one. There is, of course, a better chance for Cain to beat my prediction for him by a lot than there is for Lowe to do so.

Verdict: Slight edge to San Francisco

Noah Lowry vs. Brad Penny - One of those where it's hard not to let my emotions cloud my judgement; I like Lowry and count Penny among my least favorite in all of baseball, but I still have to give him the edge on performance. They both struggled with injury problems last year, though Penny's are more of the chronic variety, but their performance wasn't even close. I really hope Lowry's decline is going to reverse itself, and I do have a bounceback season predicted, but Penny is the better bet for '07. Also worth noting (or perhaps not) Lowry's spring has been so terrible that it almost makes me want to reverse my policy of giving as little value to those numbers as possible.

Verdict: Edge to Los Angeles

Matt Morris vs. Randy Wolf - More similar than I realized off-hand. Two former front-line starters who dealt with injury problems and are still hanging on (and cashing in) as innings-eating mediocrities. I'm going to give the edge to Morris, but that's more on durability than performance.

Verdict: Slight edge to San Francisco.

Russ Ortiz vs. Brett Tomko - Very similar positions here for both teams; both guys have been ineffective over the last few seasons, I'd call their performance even (Ortiz played much worse but has shown the ability to be better, Tomko has been consistent if mediocre). Also, both have been handed the job based on their spring performances and will be sent packing very quickly if their regular-season performance doesn't make the cut. Hell, both also have talented but untried youngsters lurking in the wings (Lincecum and Billingsley). I think Ortiz is the better bet to implode but I wouldn't be surprised if they are both in the bullpen or gone altogether by mid-May.

Verdict: I wanted to put "slight edge to Los Angeles", but since so many of you guys seem to be drinking the Ortiz Kool-Aid I'll put "wash".

Rotation Depth

Jonathan Sanchez vs. Mark Hendrickson - Hendrickson is basically useless, so even with Sanchez's struggles as a starter I feel confident ranking him higher.
Brad Hennessey vs. Hong-Chih Kuo - Kuo is a blue-chipper, even with the injury history, and I can really succeed as a starter I think, even if he'll rarely pitch past the sixth. I put Hennessey at around a 5.00 ERA and think Kuo could go below 4.00, so that's a strong advantage for the Dodgers.
Tim Lincecum vs. Chad Billingsley - They both have their problems with control, but I'm a huge Lincecum fan and give him the advantage here. Unfortunately, he's less likely to get significant rotation time as Billingsley is.

Overall Rotation
On talent, San Francisco has a bigger edge here, but taking into account the park effects it's not as big as the fanboy in me wants to think. I have the front five for the Giants combining for a 4.24 ERA while the front five for the Dodgers comes in at 4.28, nearly identical. This is pretty optimistic (PECOTA has the Giants at 4.54 and the Dodgers at 4.35), but reflects my opinion that Zito can keep his ERA just below 4.00 and Lowry can bounce back a bit. Depth-wise, the Giants could have the advantage but relying on Hennessey over Lincecum would pretty much erase it and I'm pretty sure he's higher up on the unoffical depth chart.

Bullpen
It's impossible to project bullpen playing time, so I'll just compare the top three on the depth chart since they usually eat up the most important innings anyway.

Armando Benitez vs. Takashi Saito - For those wondering, I have Benitez at a 4.00 ERA. If his knees hold up, he's fully capable of that, and if they don't, well, it will be ugly. Saito was just disgusting last season, and is difficult to project given that his previous two seasons were as a) a starter and b) in Japan. I'm projecting some regression, but less than PECOTA. He's less likely to fall off a cliff than Mando and the Dodgers have a much better contigency plan if he does.

Verdict: Big edge to Los Angeles

Kevin Correia vs. Jonathan Broxton - I like Correia, I see him keeping an ERA just under 4.00 which would make him, well, our best or second best reliever. Unfortunately, Broxton is made of awesome and chunks of Eric Gagne's old mojo.

Verdict: Big edge to Los Angeles

Brian Wilson vs. Yhency Brazoban - Brazoban isn't expected back til May and Tommy John sometimes has lingering effects on control, but Wilson doesn't exactly throw with pinpoint accuracy either. I expect some serious growing pains from Wilson; he's struggled with control his whole career and I don't see that likely to stop anytime soon. Still, the health issue and Brazoban's own struggles make it even in my eyes.

Verdict: Push

Overall Pitching
The bullpen is obviously a big advantage to L.A. and I don't think even the homeriest homer around here would argue it. Combined with our very slight edge in the rotation, that gives L.A. an advantage on the pitching side, albeit not an insurmountable one. I have L.A. allowing 755 runs and the Giants allowing 770

Overall
The Dodgers run differential of +7 gives them a predicted record of 82-80, while the Giants run differential of 0 gives them a predicted record of, surprise, 81-81. These are optimistic on both fronts compared to PECOTA, which has the Dodgers at 80-82 and the Giants at 79-83, both two wins worse than I have them.

Predicted NL West Standings
Los Angeles Dodgers: 82-80
San Francisco Giants: 81-81
San Diego Padres: TBA
Arizona Diamondbacks: TBA
Colorado Rockies: TBA

For those here who aren't readers (and it's disgustingly worth the money if you are considering it) some of the regulars at BP and a number of guest writers have a pre-season segment called "Hope and Faith" where they discuss what needs to happen for each team to win the World Series. Some of them include "God takes pity," but the interesting articles are the fringe contenders like the Giants.

Gene Huckaby's write-up on the Giants went up today, and while I can't post the article or anything, I think it would be okay to post his five points:

1. Get real about expectations - He further clarifies this to mean jettisoning Russ Ortiz and any other veteran flyer who might be blocking a player with actual upside)
2. Two guys have to get lucky - His example is Durham last season, just two helpings.
3. Break camp with Lincecum in long relief - 'nuff said. Actually, not enough said, Huckaby actually uses the phrase "Tim Lincecum is 2007 = Johan Santana in 2003" and now I need a new pair of underwear.
4. Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson leave some balls up in the zone - By this he means the other teams in the division have to have some bad luck, particularly when playing S.F.
5. The Physics Effects Fairy could smile on the Giants - Huckaby thinks the new policy on baseballs being stored in humidors could benefit the Giants with their big park and extreme flyball  1-2 pitchers.

The Giants aren't favorites, as he points out, but it's not completely out of the question.

(Hopefully this isn't posting too much, if people think it is I'll take it down)

Since putting the numbers down on paper can often change my knee-jerk reaction to them, I figured I'd try my hand at some of these projections. I'm not going to project any specific injuries since that's a much shadier science than performance. Note, these are my off-the-cuff projections and I'm far more trusting of PECOTA, or even ZIPS, particularly in regards to hitters. I'm more concerned about the overall conclusion than any individual prediction, though I'll explain my reasoning for each player.

---Offense---

C Bengie Molina - .280/.314/.435 - As you can see, I'm not very high on Bengie Molina. His last two seasons came in Anaheim and Toronto, the difference in those parks disguising a drop-off in production that I can only see continuing with a switch back to a pitcher-friendly park. I expect between 10-15 homers, closer to the lower end of that spectrum. These numbers would still make him an above-average offensive catcher.
1B/OF Ryan Klesko - .259/.360/.440 - I expect more power than ZIPS is projecting, though that lost season last year adds a real wild card to the mix and I'd be much less surprised to see Klesko fall well short of this projection that to surpass it. These numbers would be roughly average for an NL first baseman.
2B: Ray Durham - .283/.358/.445 - I'm more optimistic about overall offensive value and lest optimistic about power production than ZIPS is; I see Durham's patience more likely to sustain intself in the twilight of his career than his sudden power surge. These numbers would be solidly above average for a 2B.
3B: Pedro Feliz - .249/.285/.420 - The only good thing about this projection is that it's likely bad enough to get him pulled from the starting role. This is obviously well below average from a third baseman.
SS: Omar Vizquel - .280/.350/.369 - Omar is at an age and a position where there are too few comparable players to estimate with much certainty. I think this one is a good balance between something like a 3-year average and ZIPS. This is solid offensive production from a shortstop.
LF: Barry Bonds - .272/.470/.550 - This is definitely an optimistic projection, but it relies on the assumption that his second half last year was not a fluke and is more reflective of his current abilities than his first half.
CF: Dave Roberts - .288/.358/.409 - This assumes sitting against a fair number of lefties and are solid numbers from a center fielder.
RF: Randy Winn - .285/.343/.410 - The problem with having an entire team on the wrong side of thirty is that you can rarely project a return to even a player's career averages, though this one is pretty close. It would be solid production for a center fielder but is below average for a right fielder, where Winn is likely to spend much of his time.

1B/3B: Rich Aurilia - .280/.335/.440 - I expect Aurilia to maintain his late-career power spike, though it should still decline a bit from last season. I also expect him to get a starter's share of at-bats once Feliz sucks it up and Sabean finally realizes he's awful.
IF: Kevin Frandsen - .285/.340/.395 - This is an optimistic projection for Frandsen who I expect to take over the primary infield backup spot once Feliz is replaced largely by Aurilia.

I'd estimate this offense to be more or less league average, which would mean scoring about 770 runs. That is a small improvement over last year's squad, gained largely by replacing the black hole of suck at first base with a black hole of averageness and assuming Pedro Feliz doesn't lead the team in PAs. It also assumes there are no major injuries, which is less of a threat this year due to the fact that there is an adequare replacement for everybody in the lineup besides Bonds and Durham. If Bonds misses any significant amount of time though, it's all over for the lineup. Basically, I think this offense has very little upside and downside; with the age of the hitters you wouldn't expect any career years, but with ample backups you also wouldn't expect any injuries to cripple the production.

---Defense---

This isn't a very quantitative part of the team, so I'm far less confident in these projections, but here goes.

1B: Klesko was an awful outfielder, so I wouldn't expect him to be anything more than serviceable at first. Aurilia is probably about average; as a former middle infielder he'll be rangy for the position but he doesn't have a ton of experience there. I'll call it average, which is a bit optimistic I think.
2B: Opinions are pretty mixed on Ray-Ray, but I think he's probably slightly below average at this point, particularly in the range department.
3B: Feliz is a plus defender, likely to avoid being run down with less playing time next season. Aurilia, OTOH, is below average, so I'd call the overall defense here average (assuming that Aurilia is further below the mean than Feliz is above it). I could be persuaded to call it a small advantage though.
SS: Dreamy is still a plus defender, but not by as large a margin as the fanboy in me wants to believe. His range is impressive for a 43-year-old and his hands are the best in the business, but he doesn't have the arm to make the throws from the hole. I love the guy, but he's not the best.

Infield: Overall, the infield is probably just about average. Our top two pitchers are of the extreme flyball variety, so this isn't a big deal, but it's certainly not a strength of the team.

LF: Bonds is an underrated defender. His arm is weak and he's lost a few steps, but he's not the black hole he's made out to be. I'd call him slightly below average, perfectly serviceably for the offensive force that he is.
CF: Both Winn and Roberts are stretched as every day center fielders, but neither have ever been good enough hitters to make it in left or right. I'd call it slightly below average, assuming that Roberts sits a fair amount and doesn't get run down.
RF: Winn is probably a plus defender in a corner position, given that it's easier than center (even with the tricky plays at Mays Field).

Outfield: I'd have to call this slightly below average, which isn't a good mix with Zito and Cain. The spacious outfield should help keep balls in the park, but I think we'll see plenty of doubles falling for another year.

---Pitching---
SP Matt Cain - 195 IP, 3.85 ERA - I don't consider this pessimistic; as much as I'd like a breakout type season, Cain is barely old enough to drink and while I see great things for him in the future, I don't think his third season in the majors (with a shoddy outfield defense behind him) will be that year.
SP Barry Zito - 220 IP, 3.90 ERA - I think the team defense will hurt a ball-in-play pitcher more than a strikeout pitcher like Cain, though a 3.90 ERA is nothing to sneeze at. I think it's more likely he'll post one above 4.00 than below 3.75.
SP Noah Lowry - 190 IP, 4.15 ERA - As hard as pitching projections are in general, this one was particularly difficult. I sort of straddled the fence; it's a bounce-back from 2006 but not as good as 2005.
SP Matt Morris - 205 IP, 4.35 ERA - Morris is better than his 2006, and his contract has become reasonably. As a fourth starter, he's not a bad option at all.
SP Brajonevin Hennesoreia - 170 IP, 4.70 ERA - I just don't know who will be the fifth starter next year, so this projection is sort of an average of all three, with the average counted again twice as part of the bullpen (with a half a run chopped off as an estimate of the effect of pitching in relief rather than starting).

It's so difficult to project playing time for relievers that I'm more or less going to average my projected ERAs for each pitcher and make them the bullpen portion of an overall team ERA. It's quick-and-dirty, but I stand by the general result if not the individual projections.

MR Vinnie Chulk - 4.35 ERA
MR Billy Sadler - 3.55 ERA (I do think he's the best reliever we've got)
MR Steve Kline - 3.75 ERA
MR Brajonevin Hennesoria - 4.40 ERA
MR Brajonevin Hennesoria - 4.40 ERA
MR David Cortes - 4.40 ERA
MR Brian Wilson - 4.40 ERA
MR Armando Benitez - 4.00 ERA

This would give us a starting rotation ERA of 4.17 and a bullpen ERA of 4.16, which obviously works out to a team total of about 4.17. The ERA in the NL last year was 4.49, with the top team being the San Diego Padres with a 3.87 ERA. I'd ballpark our team to allow about 740 runs with those totals, with a better chance to allow fewer than to allow more.

Those totals give us a Pythagorean record of 84-80. A more optimistic estimation that the team allows only 710 runs (which would be at or close to the best in the league), gives us an 88-74 record. Both these totals make us contenders, though certainly not favorites, for the division, which is about what I expected. My heart hopes the Giants pull it out, but my head thinks the Diamondbacks and the Padres will duke it out for first place.

Thoughts? The most thing that struck me most interesting from these calculations was how difficult it is to be a 90-win type team; with league average hitting or pitching you'd have to be tops in the league at the other by a fair margin to get a Pythagorean record that high.

So, as well know Sabean has pledged to "get younger" in the off-season. The rotation isn't all figured out yet, but the lineup appears pretty set, so we can get a good look at what he means.

Here's a list of the players who lead the Giants in PA at each position in '06 and their Opening Day ages (which I calculated myself so might be a few days off).

C: Eliezer Alfonzo (27 years, 55 days)
1B: Shea Hillenbrand (30 years, 249 days)
2B: Ray Durham (34 years, 122 days)
3B: Pedro Feliz (30 years, 339 days)
SS: Omar Vizquel (38 years, 343 days)
OF: Barry Bonds (41 years, 252 days)
OF: Steve Finley (41 years, 21 days)
OF: Randy Winn (31 years, 297 days)

That gives us an average lineup age (discounting the pitcher) of 34 years, 164 days.

In 2007, our Opening Day lineup will most likely be

C: Bengie Molina (32 years, 256 days)
1B: Rich Aurilia (35 years, 214 days)
2B: Ray Durham (35 years, 122 days)
3B: Pedro Feliz (31 years, 339 days)
SS: Omar Vizquel (39 years, 343 days)
OF: Barry Bonds (42 years, 252 days)
OF: Dave Roberts (34 years, 306 days)
OF: Randy Winn (32 years, 297 days)

Giving us an average lineup age of * drumroll * 35 years, 266 days, or more than a full year older.

KUTGW Brian Sabean!

So, with Schmidt off the market the rumors are starting to heat up that Sabean wants in on the Zito bidding. I know that notion apparently has some support around here, so I thought I'd analyze  it a bit (and/or write a term paper on the subject.

First off, the relevent Zito numbers over the past three seasons.

2004 (age 26) - 213 IP, 4.90 RA (AL RA was 5.01), 6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
2005 (age 27) - 228.1 IP, 4.17 RA (AL RA was 4.76), 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
2006 (age 28) - 221 IP, 4.03 RA (AL RA was (4.97), 6.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9

Zito has thrown a lot of innings over the last few years (and in fact his career) so he's a pretty known commodity. Let's break down the pros and cons

Pros
As mentioned, he's a horse. Never below 213 IP in a full season.

His injury history is pretty empty. He's thrown a lot of innings, but how many pitchers his age boast an injury record so clean?

He's the youngest guy on the market at 29.

The talk of his decline over the past three years is way overblown; his 2004 and 2005 were virtually identical so we're really just talking about '06.

His '04 and '05 were well above league average, his '06 solidly so.

His #1 PECOTA comp is Chuck Finley, who aged very well, but that doesn't take into account his '06 season.

Cons
The biggest one is the price. He's going to probably get 5 years and the total value of the contract may approach three figures.

His '06 genuinely was poorer than the previous years, his walk rate jumped significantly and his strikeout rate dropped at about the same rate. It wasn't as severe a slump as Lowry's, but he also saw his walk rate climb which wasn't the case for Lowry. That 2006 season was even poorer than it looks at first glance when you realize he was sporting a .249 BABIP as well.

He's a flyball pitcher in a team that will feature a below-average defensive outfield.

Did I mention how expensive he's going to be?

So, what does it all mean? Well, even those opposed to the trade have to admit that he's the best pitcher on the market by no small margin. I'll admit, after taking a close look at the statistics I'm a bit more positive on Zito than I previously was, however, I'm still opposed to the deal and I'll tell you why.

1. I don't think it's the right direction, largely because I don't think the Giants will contend in '06, and while Zito would make a difference I think there's next to no chance of serious contention in '08, where Zito would still be under contract for three more seasons.
2. Pitchers are erratic. If you want to hand out a long term contract I'd much rather you give one to a hitter, they have much smoother aging curves.
3. While there is no exact meaning, Zito is not an "ace" pitcher. He's closer to average than dominant and one of the larger factors in his success has been a low hit rate (his BABIPs over the past three years have been .244, .299, and .249). There's some evidence that lefties with good change-ups may be able to sustain lower hit rates, but there's a good bet those will rise somewhat in the coming years.

Personally, I'd rather the team take a flyer out on Tomo Ohka who is a decent bet to be a league-average pitcher if healthy and will come priced much lower than the $10 million going rate for league-average pitchers these days.

I know that managers don't amount to much, but this little tidbit from Will Carroll's column had me wishing...

I just met Manny Acta, the new manager of the Washington Nationals. While Stan Kasten has everyone's mouth tightly closed on most topics, Acta introduced himself as a BP reader looking forward to the PECOTA projections. He may not have much of a team to work with, but I love the idea that a young, bilingual manager will have a chance to make something happen. Matthew Kleine, the coordinating producer of BP Radio, met with Ron Washington and came away impressed. If baseball has moved on from retreads--well, mostly--it's a good thing.

(Specifically I'm referring to Acta, though I'd probably have preferred Washington to Bochy as well)

Senate
Montana: D-Tester over R-Burns
New Jersey: D-Menendez over R-Kean
Connecticut: D (for purposes of this) Lieberman over everybody else
Arizona: R-Kyle over D-Pederson
Tennesee: R-Corker over D-Ford
Virginia: D-Webb over R-Allen (please, for the love of God)
Pennsylvania: D-Casey over R-Santorum
Missouri: D-McCaskill over R-Talent
Rhode Island: D-Whitehouse over R-Chaffee
Ohio: D-Brown over R-DeWine
Michigan: D-Stabenow, R-Bounard

Result: Democrats take a 51-49 majority

House
Democrats gain 19 seats.

Result: Democrats take a 221-210 majority

So, while it's a lot of fun to speculate on what we want the Giants to do, here's a twist on to what we think they'll actually do. I'm clearly a pessimist:

Feliz: 3y, $19M
Hillenbrand: 2y, $8M
Luis Gonzalez: 2y, $8M
Nameless, soon to be forgotten reliever: 1y, $3m
Alfonso Soriano: 4y, $68M
Gary Matthews: 5y, $35M

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/4293468.html

Wow, it sounds like it was really sudden. Condolences to Lance.

So, any other McCovey Chroniclers going to make the trip down to San Jose this Saturday to see Tim Lincecum pitch for the little Giants in the playoffs? I'm considering making a Tim the Enchanter sign.

For kicks, here's a run-down of combined records of the opponents ahead of the Giants in the NL West and Wild Card.

Dodgers Opponents: 625-667 (.484)
Padres Opponents: 632-661 (.489)
Phillies Opponents: 592-693 (.461)
Reds Opponents: 595-698 (.460)

And, of course, the home team.

Giants Opponents: 627-662 (.486)

I'd say the Giants have a much better shot at the division than the Wild Card since the top two teams in that race have extremely easy schedules. In the division the schedules are roughly equal, the Giants suffering by not getting any more series with the punching bag Pirates (though that might be a good thing given their play against them this season).

Very badly it seems. Missed a start with elbow soreness, got rocked for ten hits in four innings (often the kind of line that indicates reduced velocity, though I didn't see the game). He's now out indefinitely with a left elbow injury, and one that sounds severe. Given his delivery this could be very bad news for him; left elbow injuries have derailed more promising careers.

Obviously I would not wish this on Liriano, or anybody, but from a practical standpoint it does illustrate why Sabean has such a habit towards trading pitchers. Young arms are more volatile than anything else in baseball.

I know he redeemed himself after a terrible game yesterday, but I think the Durham haters were going a little to far prior. If he stays healthy, Durham's bat is one of the few I'm not worried about. Superficially his .247/.333/.441 line doesn't look great, but that's all tied up in his batting average, which tends to fluctuate more with luck than OBP/SLG do. His OPS where it is places him in the middle of the pack for second basemen and is a bit below his career average.

I was excited when the Giants acquired Durham, and only his inability to stay on the field has tempered that. He's not a great player, but he has consistently been a good one and there's no reason to give up on him so soon.