SB Nation User Blog: JakeS

25 Giants Pre-Season Predictions

JakeS — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 17:05:27 -0000

I thought this might be a fun exercise to look back on at the end of the season.

There are 25 questions - 10 yes/no, 10 over/under, and 5 fill-in answer.

Yes/No
1. Will the Giants finish in the bottom 5 in runs scored? (both leagues)
2. Will the Giants finish in the top 5 in runs allowed? (both leagues)
3. Will the Giants enter May without a full-time backup catcher on the roster?
4. Will Pablo Sandoval have a walk in his first five starts?
5. Will Matt Cain have the worst run support of any Giants pitcher with 15+ GS?
6. Will either of Madison Bumgarner or Tim Alderson appear in five games?
7. Will Randy Winn be traded before July 31st?
8. Will Travis Ishikawa spend the entire season in the majors?
9. Will the Giants lose 90 games?
10. Will the Giants win 80 games?

Over/Under
11. Barry Zito Games Started: Over/Under 30
12. Edgar Renteria OPS: Over/Under .750
13. Giants team HR Leader: Over/Under 20
14. Randy Johnson Wins: Over/Under 10
15. Aaron Rowand HR Total: Over/Under 15
16. Giants trades between 4/1 and 7/31: Over/Under 3
17. Brian Wilson ERA: Over/Under 3.75
18. Giants bullpen ERA: Over/Under 3.50
19. Pablo Sandoval BA: Over/Under .300
20. Rich Aurilia AB: Over/Under .300

Fill-In
21. What place will the Giants finish in the NL West?
22. How many games will Tim Lincecum win?
23. Who will be the first Giants pitcher to be placed on the DL after Opening Day?
24. Who will be the Giants team HR leader?
25. Name a player not on the Opening Day roster who will contribute 50 innings or 200 at-bats by the end of the season.

Just Say No

JakeS — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:12:26 -0000

So, I've been quick to come out against the notion that the Giants should make a splash in the free agent market; my belief is that winning teams are built from the bottom up and dipping into free agency for established players tends to result in overpaying for production. That's not to say that it's not without it's uses - a team might be one piece away from real contention or there may be an undervalued player on the market. I'm all for the second but I don't think anybody can honestly claim the Giants represent the first.

That said, that's just, like, my opinion man, so I decided to take a closer look at it. What I'd really like to do is see what percentage of the production on winning teams comes from free agents and compare that to the percentage on losing teams but that would be a huge project and it's already two in the morning as I write this. Instead, I'll try a somewhat simpler approach: We can all agree that the ultimate point of building a team is to win a championship. Beyond that, I think we wouldn't consider a season in which a team reached the World Series but failed to win a true failure - there's just no way to guarauntee a victory in a best of seven. So, I took the two World Series teams from every season since 1995 and identified their six most productive players by VORP. I then narrowed that list of players down to just those acquired through free agency. When we talk about the free agent market we are generally referring to the marquee players, so those players who teams took a flyer on aren't really relevant to this specific discussion (in fact, they are the kind of players I do think rebuilding teams like the Giants should target) - with that in mind I excluded those players who were signed to minor-league contracts or major-league contracts valued at less than $1 million per year.

2007 David Ortiz (Red Sox)
2007 Manny Ramirez (Red Sox)
2006 Jeff Suppan (Cardinals)
2006 Kenny Rogers (Tigers)
2005 Roger Clemens (Astros)
2005 Andy Pettite (Astros)
2004 David Ortiz (Red Sox)
2004 Manny Ramirez (Red Sox)
2004 Johnny Damon (Red Sox)
2003 Ivan Rodriguez (Marlins)
2003 Roger Clemens/David Wells (Tie) (Yankees)
2003 Jason Giambi (Yankees)
2003 Mike Mussina (Yankees)
2002 Brad Fullmer (Angels)
2002 Barry Bonds (Giants)
2001 Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks)
2001 Mark Grace (Diamondbacks)
2001 Roger Clemens (Yankees)
2001 Mike Mussina (Yankees)
2000 Roger Clemens (Yankees)
1999 David Cone (Yankees)
1999 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1998 David Cone (Yankees)
1998 David Wells (Yankees)
1998 Paul O'Neill (Yankees)
1997 Kevin Brown (Marlins)
1997 Alex Fernandez (Marlins)
1997 Moises Alou (Marlins)
1997 Bobby Bonilla (Marlins)
1997 Orel Hershiser (Indians)
1996 Kenny Rogers (Yankees)
1996 Paul O'Neill (Yankees)
1996 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1995 Greg Maddux (Braves)
1995 Orel Hershiser (Indians)
1995 Dennis Martinez (Indians)

That means that out of a total of 168 of the most valuable players on these teams, 36 were acquired as free agents, or about 20%. This would seem to support my hypothesis, it is very difficult, nearly impossible, to build a championship caliber team through free agency. This seems especially the case if you aren't a huge payroll team; of the 28 teams on my list only 10 had two or more free agents in their Top 6: the '04 and '07 Red Sox, the '96, '98, '01
and '03 Yankees, the '97 Marlins, the '05 Astros, the '95 Indians, and the '01 Diamondbacks. The only World Series team in my timeline with more than three of their top six acquired through free agency are the pre-fire-sale 1997 Florida Marlins with four. After taking into account multiple appearances only 24 different players managed to make the list.

The most telling number, to me, of the 28 World Series teams, 18 had one or fewer of their top six players acquired through free agency. 7 teams had none at all.

Now, obviously this is a limited sample and doesn't go into as much detail as I'd like to, but it does make me more confident that a closer look would also point towards free agency as an ineffective way to build a championship-caliber team. For the Giants it's a case that should be even clearer as they need look no further than Barry Zito to see the risk inherent in this method and a lot of us were saying the exact same thing back then. Hopefully it doesn't fall on deaf ears this year and the Giants just say no to free agency.

A Brave New Brian?

JakeS — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 20:59:41 -0000

It's been a while since one of my marathon fanposts around here - in fact, this may be my first since all this snazzy new stuff was around, but the last month or so have really revitalized my interest in the Giants.

I was, and probably still am, one of the biggest Brian Sabean detractors around here - I was more or less furious when we re-signed him and dismissive of the idea that Magowan was as much a part of the problem. I still don't see where people were getting that idea at the time, but his track record in the short time since Magowan's departure is so radically improved that I'm starting to consider the notion.

Our farm system has taken a huge boost from these last two drafts - five of Grant's recently posted top ten were '07 or '08 amateurs, and if we do sign Rafael Rodriguez that will make six. I was critical of our overdrafting position players with some of our picks in '07, and I would still have loved to have shelled out more money but with the numbers Alderson and Bumgarner are putting up in the minors I think there is the ammunition to defend the assertion that Sabean simply thought they were the best available talents when he took them. Drafting Posey this season was huge - I love me some Justin Smoak and college first basemen are beasts, but when you have a guy who could have gone #1 overall and draws Joe Mauer comparisions I think you have to take the best available talent and I've seen multiple sources cite the Giants as having the best draft in '08 as a result.

At the major league level things haven't been quite as drastic - Nate Schierholtz is still not on the squad and Rich Aurilia is playing every day, but Sabean has made some noise about dealing the veterans at the deadline and with the apparent shift in organizational philosophy this time I might actually believe him. Don't hurt me again Brian.

At this point I'm willing to entertain the idea that Brian Sabean really has learned some new tricks and can combine those with the organization's strengths to be maybe a Kenny Williams quality GM - capable of making some very savvy moves but also prone to the occasional inexplicably stupid ones. He's got some upside though, as I see it, depending on how he handles this year's trading deadline.

The trading deadline has always been Sabean's weakest link, in my opinion. We never sell when we should sell and we're not very good at buying. Even in our more non-competitive seasons, be it from lack of interest or overpricing we've never really succeeded at dealing the veterans but I think there's real potential this season if Sabes is savvy about it. We need to deal Durham for sure - he's hitting, he's blocking Velez who is a marginal prospect but does meet the rebuilding mantra; he's more likely to be on the next good Giants team than Durham is. We need to deal Randy Winn - he's hot and he's blocking Nate Schierholtz who absolutely must be in the lineup come August 1st, no excuses. Aurilia should go if we can get anything worthwhile for him, and in theory the same goes for overachieving scrub Jose Castillo though I can't see us getting any value for him. The same goes for Omar Vizquel, I know, I know, he's Omar, we love him, but this team needs the cojones to deal fan favorites when that's best for the team and they can take some lessons from the guys across the bay for that one. The bullpen should be open season too - keep Wilson, Hinshaw (his upside is more than his trade value at this point), and the injured Valdez but make everyone else available to sweeten deals and try to get some decent return on Winn/Durham.

Molina should be available but dealing him isn't mandatory - I'd love to see us get a real prospect in return for him as he won't be on the next good Giants team - most of our scenarios for success have Posey as the position player centerpiece in a few seasons. On the other hand, I understand the argument that we have to keep some fans in the seats and even if I place no credence on the veteran catcher - young pitcher theory we always have next season to deal him at the deadline or let him walk for the draft pick.

If Sabean can really prove that he's cleansed himself of his veteran obsession and if he can dust of his old trading skills and move some contracts and even get some real return on these deals then maybe he can make this team good again, and not fleeting veteran-reliant good like in the past but good for some years to come, with a pitching core that's already there and a lineup that supplements homegrown talent with a couple of free agents instead of the other way around. If our regular lineup in August looks something like this:

C Molina
1B Bowker
2B Velez
3B McClain/Castillo or Aurilia if were unable to deal with them
SS Burriss/Omar if he's still around
LF Lewis
CF Rowand
RF Schierholtz

Then maybe Sabean really will be the architect that can put the new Giants team together.

What team would you like to see in '08?

JakeS — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 17:34:21 -0000

So, if you were the GM, how would you rebuild the organization next year. Free agents and trades are okay, but try to stay in the realm of realism.

Starting Rotation

Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Kevin Correia

Bullpen

Brian Wilson
Brad Hennessey
Jack Taschner
Randy Messenger
Billy Sadler
Patrick Misch

Defense
C Jeff Clement (from Seattle for Noah Lowry and Dan Ortmeier)
1B Cheap free agent signing or trade
2B Ray Durham
3B Kevin Frandsen
SS Omar Vizquel (one year deal if a trade can't be worked out)
LF Barry Bonds (one year deal, hey, you said it was our team)
CF Fred Lewis vs. righties, Rajai Davis vs. lefties
RF Nate Schierholtz

Bench
C Elezier Alfonzo
CIF Rich Aurilia
MIF Tomas De la Rosa
OF Rajai Davis/Fred Lewis
OF Dave Roberts

Gone
Randy Winn and Bengie Molina, traded for prospects or a ML-ready infielder, first base preferable.
Brian Sabean

This is a bad team, to be sure, but the presence of Bonds prevents it from being historically bad and doesn't keep any promising players out of the lineup. Some of the random bullpen arms can be replaced with dumpster diving reclamation projects but any contract in excess of $1 million handed out to a free agent reliever would be stupid in my opinion.

... and I'm rooting for the Rockies

JakeS — Sun, 07 Oct 2007 04:12:58 -0000

I'd been sort of rooting for the Indians this season but watching some Rockies games I'd gotten into it and I'd just started getting sucked into this one (exciting playoff one-hitters from power-armed rookies? Kind of fun) when the shutout gets broken up. How?

A homer from Shane f***ing Victorino. Oh, I'm in now.

Fernando Cabrera

JakeS — Sat, 11 Aug 2007 18:30:49 -0000

The Indians are in the thick of the playoff hunt so evidently don't feel that they can take any more growing pains from Fernando Cabrera so they've placed him on release waivers. He's only 25 with these career numbers:

1.47 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9
5.19 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9
5.61 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9 (in half a seasons worth of innings)

He's obviously got to cut down on the walks but he's the very definition of "upside" and we're in a position to both offer him a park that will minimize his home run problem and give him time to work through his troubles without effecting our chances to go anywhere. He can be had for a song, but like Wilson Betemit, I'm sure Brian has no idea he exists. I mean, is there any way this guy isn't a better closer prospect than Brian Wilson? They are similar ages with similar track records except that Cabrera has done his flashes-of-brilliance-but-no-control act in the majors and Wilson has done it all over the minors.

Jake Rates The Draft

JakeS — Fri, 08 Jun 2007 04:19:42 -0000

Well, it's your favorite (or least favorite, depending on your affinity for precipitation and/or Dustin Hoffman) writer of novel-length opinions and I thought I'd chime in with my two cents on the draft, or, more specifically, the first six picks because, let's be honest, those are the ones that really matter.

#10 overall - LHP Madison Bumgarner
DOB: 08/01/89 (age 17)
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 19th best overall draft prospect, 9th best pitcher.
Sickels: Ranked as the 5th best pitcher.

Tools: A fastball that has clocked anywhere from the low-to-high 90s, I'm guessing Giants scouts see it ending up sitting on the high end which seems entirely possible given his age and size. A changeup that seems to be liked by scouts but has not been very used and a breaking ball that so far ranks as fringe-average at best as he has only been throwing it for a year. He has high marks for athleticism (something I like) and stamina, so combining those with the fact that he hasn't thrown the breaking ball much I'd guess he's as low an injury risk as a 17-year-old pitcher can be. The breaking ball is definitely the biggest knock against him as he'll have to develop a significantly better one to make it. With his arm slot (3/4), I'm not sure if the Giants will teach him a curveball or a slider (his current pitch is supposed to be very slurvy) but I defer to their judgement in that regard as I am definitely not a scout. Interestingly, Dick Tidrow is quoted as saying that he thinks Bumgarner will move very quickly, which surprised me a lot because that's the opposite of what I've heard.

My take: At the time I was very upset, but I've come around a lot on him. He's not who I'd have taken (I wanted Mills, and I preferred Aumont to him on the pitching side) but only time will tell whether he was the best pitcher on the board as the Giants were clearly planning to go that route. Apparently this was the guy Logan White and the Dodgers wanted, and that's worth a lot in my book. He's definitely a guy who is going to take a lot of time down in the minors to be ready, but Keith Law (whose opinions I respect) sees him as a good #2, and that's worth the wait.

Verdict: 4/5 stars - he's not a Lincecum, but he's not Daniel Moskos (God I'm glad I'm not a Pirate fan.)

#22 overall - RHP Tim Alderson
DOB: 11/03/88 (age 18)
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 210 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 27th best overall draft prospect, 14th best pitcher.
Sickels: Not ranked in the top 12 pitchers.

Tools: An 89-93 fastball (although Goldstein said it could clock at 96, so I guess we'll have to wait til his minor-league debut to see), probably not quite enough to qualify as a power fastball but enough to be a solid offering. He also throws a curveball and changeup that aren't as polished but some scouts see them both as a potential plus pitches. His control is his biggest asset, while high school numbers are usually largely meaningless in this case the miniscule walk total and the scouts agree that he has excellent command. His delivery is described as "unorthodox" (he pitches only out of the stretch and from an unusual angle), but I'm willing to give the Giants the benefit of the doubt in this regard. Apparently some scouts see him as a reliever, but I'm not sure if this is just because of the delivery or if they fear for his health or stamina.

My take: Again, he wasn't the top pitcher I'd have liked to take at this point, but we'll just have to wait and see. The big turn-off for me is that some see him as a reliever - I really hope that the Giants really project him as a starter. Keith Law again likes the pick which is a meaningful endorsement in my book. He projects to move much more quickly than Bumgarner but his lack of a real power pitch limits his upside, more like a good #3/#2. The guy that springs to mind just from the scouting reports is Joe Blanton, and that's not a bad kind of guy to have. He's also got a scholarship to play at Oregon State, so it's possible he might not be signed. Keep in mind, with the new rules we'll get a compensation pick next year if he doesn't.

Verdict: 4/5 stars assuming the team sees him as a starter, 2.5/5 stars if they see him as a reliever simply because #22 would be a definite overdraft and overpay.

#29 overall - OF Wendell Fairley
DOB: 3/17/88 (age 19)
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 draft prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: It's hard to get as much info on Fairley because he wasn't really expected to go this high, but I gather that he's a talented (some say as much as top 15 talented) player who is just incredibly raw because he's come late to baseball. There's also attitude questions, but that kind of thing rarely bothers me. He's drawn Carl Crawford comparisions, but that shouldn't make people assume he's anywhere near that kind of a prospect yet. He's the kind of guy who probably won't make many top prospect lists right away but if he starts performing well in full-season ball he'll climb quickly because of his tools. He's very fast and defensively is expected to be able to stay in center, which is very important. Overall, a good athlete who might not have seemed like a reach at this point in the draft without the off-field issues.

My take: I'm split. On the one hand, he's a high-upside pick, and I like that, but on the other hand he's definitely not who I'd have taken, and he's very likely a guy who would have been available in the supplemental round. San Francisco's scouts must really like him, but that doesn't carry nearly as much weight on the hitting side given the kind of hitters we've tended to draft. I'm not sure if money played a role in the selection, I hope it didn't, but it could have given that Bumgarner and Alderson are both going to be fairly expensive. It's also not necessarily a sure thing that he'll sign, especially as a two-sport athlete, but early signs seem to be optimistic.

Verdict: 4/5 stars, and that's a hard one to give. High-risk, high-reward also tempered by the fact that he may be a bit of an overdraft, but he's got the upside.

#32 overall - SS Nick Noonan
DOB: 05/04/89 (age 18)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 180 lbs.

Goldstein: Ranked as the 31st best overall prospect, 13th best hitter
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: Listed as a shortstop but nobody sees him there, he'll likely end up at second base because the arm limits him on the left side of the infield. He's a fast, good baserunner, and while not a burner is smart enough not to run into outs. He's athletic enough, but his bat is what makes him a high draft pick. He's a good contact hitter who probably isn't strong enough to be much of a power hitter with the most optimistic projections putting his ceiling at 10-15 homers annually, and he's considered to have a good eye, though not an outstanding one. Basically seems like a good pure hitter (any power he has is the product of his ability to drive the ball rather than raw strength) who projects as a leadoff or #2 hitter. He's polished for an eighteen-year-old, but will obviously need significant time in the minors.

My Take: I like Noonan a fair amount but he's really not a high-upside guy and the fact that he's not a shortstop at the next level hampers him (although second base isn't exactly a loaded position either). The Giants have also had trouble developing guys like him (see Sanders, Marcus) but it's hard to really assign blame for those kinds of things. Also, again, there were a number of guys left on the draft board who I'd rather have had, and I think money definitely played a role because the Giants did like Julio Borbon. If that's the case it really irks me - developing players from within in essential for a good team so being willing to throw so much money out there in free agency and not the amateur draft is, IMO, a terrible way to do things.

Verdict: 3.5/5 stars - He's more than Kevin Frandsen, but not enough more to get me excited.

#43 overall C Jackson Williams
DOB: 05/14/86 (age 21)
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 200 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: The Giants saw him as the best defensive catcher in the draft but I don't think that was necessarily the consensus opinion. He's definitely a plus defensive catcher, but other than that I don't know anything about him other than the fact that nobody saw him going high enough to warrant much of a scouting report.

My Take: I'm assuming the Giants didn't feel that Mitch Canham could stay behind the plate, but there are a ton of guys I'd rather have at this spot. Yasmani Grandal, for one, is listed by Kevin Goldstein as the best defensive player in the draft and has more offensive upside. On a team with a good reputation for scouting hitters you might be inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, but the Giants really haven't even come close to earning that kind of deference. Unless scouts that aren't on the Giants payroll start saying good things about this guy I can't say I'm impressed. He wasn't on any sleeper lists I'd read, and honestly, I'd never even heard of the guy before his name was called which doesn't bode well for a #43 overall pick. I disagree with the idea that the Giants had to draft a top-flight defensive catcher because they drafted the two pitches first - very few pitches have regular, much less excellent catchers in the minor-leagues and I've never heard of it having any effect on their development. Even then, Grandal ranks very highly defensively and much better with the bat.

Verdict: 1.5/5 stars - Justin Jackson, who was picked next, would have warranted a 5/5 from me here too.

#51 overall SS Charles Culberson
DOB: 04/10/89 (age 18)
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 185 lbs.

Goldstein: Not ranked among the top 50 prospects.
Sickels: Not ranked among the top 12 hitters.

Tools: Again, a guy who nobody had going this early and on whom information is very hard to find. From what I've gathered he's another guy who probably won't stick at shortstop, projecting instead as a second or third baseman. Hopefully in the next few days more information will become available.

My Take: I don't know enough about this guy to judge him, but again he's a guy who was on nobody's top prospects lists while a number of guys who were on everybody's were still around. I'll withold judgement for now, but it doesn't look good.

Verdict: N/A

---

Overall, I was disappointed, and I don't want that to seem like more damning praise than it is. The Giants had a pretty good draft, I wanted a very good draft. We had a chance to really re-tool our farm system, especially if we shelled out the big bucks for some signability issues, and instead we just had a pretty good draft. I like Bumgarner and Alderson (again, provided the Giants see him as a reliever), I cautiously like Fairley, and Noonan is okay, but the last two supplemental picks do absolutely nothing for me. They were both reaches and guys that the consensus scouting report on was underwhelming, which might not hold as much water if we were talking about the Braves, who excel at scouting, but when we're talking about the Giants you have to wonder if these were financially-motivated picks. I get that six first-round picks costs a lot of money but I absolutely disagree with the idea that throwing around the kind of money San Francisco does in free agency is anything closer to a better investment than spending that money on draft day. Basically, I think the Giants had a good draft - there were certainly teams that did worse (the Pirates and Twins really spring to mind) but there were teams that did better, and with the kind of hopes I had, that's enough to disappoint me. I like it a bit less than Keith Law, but not a lot less.

Overall Rating: 3.5/5 stars (4/5 stars for the first round, 2/5 stars for the supplemental)

Brian Sabean Review (Part Four)

JakeS — Sun, 20 May 2007 08:11:43 -0000

These moves are pretty recent, but I'll do my best to explain my reasoning behind the judgements if I give them.

December 1st, 2006

Signed Ray Durham to a two-year contract worth $14.5 million

This is the kind of deal that you should sign veteran players to - short term, so even if injuries strike (and with Durham, that's almost more of a when than an if) you're not on the hook for too long. Moreover, Durham is more than just a placeholder, he's an offensive threat at a position that doesn't have many of them. He's old, but is coming off one of his better seasons with the bat and doesn't have any warning signs of decline. And lastly, he's not blocking anybody, despite some bizarre assertions that Frandsen is the better player.

Verdict: Nice little deal, one of Sabean's best since signing Durham in the first place.

December 2nd, 2006

Signed Dave Roberts to a three-year contract worth $18 million

This is going to be another one I get crap for, but I'll explain why I think the Roberts signing isn't as good as it looks on the surface. The length is a little longer than I'd like for a player with a bit of an injury history, especially one with so much value in his legs, but it's not a crippling type of contract. The problem is simple: allocation of resources. With Steve Finley out of the picture (mercifully) the team already had an above-average center fielder in Randy Winn. Compared to other center fielders, Winn was a well above-average hitter with at least average defense, move him to right and while his defense is even better in comparision he's also merely an average hitter. That isn't to say that Sabean didn't try to sign a right fielder, he offered Carlos Lee a much longer-term contract than he should have and we got lucky when he turned it down (for an equally bad deal). The problem was giving up there - there were other outfielders on the market. J.D. Drew's contract was a pretty good one (though he's off to a slow start), Jose Guillen is a better hitter than Roberts, Trot Nixon fills the big half of a platoon. There were other options.

Verdict: Even, good on money vs. talent, bad in that Roberts doesn't fit in the lineup very well and it's a three-year deal to an injury-prone player.

December 4th, 2006

Signed Rich Aurilia to a two-year contract worth $8 million

Aurilia and Klesko haven't been quite average together at first base, but there weren't really any appealing first basemen on the market so I suppose Sabean did the best he could. I actually like the Klesko signing better because it's for only one year, but we can assume he actually had some competition for Aurilia and $8 million isn't much.

Verdict: Good little deal.

Signed Pedro Feliz to a one-year contract worth $5.1 million

In 2006, Pedro Feliz posted a .237 EQA. No full-time third baseman was worse than that. Even looking at more "traditional" stats, Feliz hit .244/.281/.428 in a league where the average third baseman hit .282/.354/.472. It's not like that season was a fluke either, his OPS+ over the past three seasons had been 98, 87, 79. So, you re-sign a 32-year-old coming off a three-year decline, the worst full-time hitter at his position. Unbelievable. There's no excusing that. Frandsen would outhit that, easy.

Verdict: Bad. Again, re-signing the worst hitter at a position can't be a good deal regardless of the money involved.

December 6th, 2006

Signed Bengie Molina to a three-year contract worth $16 million

This is another good veteran signing - Molina is an above-average hitting catcher and even with his declining defense the money isn't so much that it would be crippling if he ended up a backup by the end of the deal or something. There weren't many catchers on the market either.

Verdict: Good. I don't like the long-term contract to a catcher with a weight problem but so far Molina has hit well and there's as much a chance he stays the good-stick no-defense asset that he is for the duration of the contract just as there's a chance he gets hurt.

Signed Steve Kline to a two-year contract worth $3.5 million.

Kline was coming off a two-year stretch where he put together this line: 4.63 RA, 5.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 1.50 WHIP.

You're telling me there's nobody down on the farm or off the top of the garbage bin that could approximate that line? Kline's only real virtue at this point in his career is that he's been in the league for twelve years and he's left-handed. His performance has been even worse than could be expected so far: a WHIP over 2.00, but his bullpen spot hasn't been mentioned as being in jeopardy, for some reason. It's not like he's a LOOGY or anything either, over the last three years lefties have hit only a smidgen worse against him than righties.

Verdict: Bad - the money isn't much but Kline is an eminently replaceable quantity so it's basically money down the drain.

December 19th, 2006

Signed Ryan Klesko to a one-year contract worth $1.75 million

His power stroke may have disappeared but so far at least he's been able to get on base, and that's something. $1.75 million is barely more than a flyer, so it was a pretty low-risk move.

Verdict: Good minor deal, assuming Sabean was unable to find any adequate first sackers in a trade Klesko/Aurilia are a much better deal than, say, Sean Casey who I was terrified we'd try to get.

December 29th, 2006

Signed Barry Zito to a seven-year contract worth $126 million with a vesting option for an eighth year

Now, in most cases you'd say "oh, how can you judge a contract after only two months," but there's plenty of reasons we can see right now that this contract was bad. First of all, take a look at Zito's peripherals over the past three years (and now a month and a half into 2007):

2004: 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
2005: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
2006: 6.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
2007: 5.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 (small sample size, but if apparently these last two months can validate the Morris/Winn signings I guess they can iNvalidate this one.)

Not even taking length into account it's pretty clear that the pitcher you are getting isn't exactly dominating. He eats up a ton of innings, sure, but three years of declining peripherals doesn't exactly scream "long-term contract." Which gets us to the length. Seven years (maybe EIGHT) for a pitcher is never a good idea. The risk is too high - even an exceptional pitcher (which Zito is not) is a huge risk over the course of seven years. Don't believe me? The largest contracts ever given to a pitcher before Zito were eight years $121 million to Mike Hampton, and seven years $105 million to Kevin Brown, and we all know how those turned out. The similarity runs beyond the financial, Mike Hampton is actually Zito's most similar pitcher through age 28 according to Baseball Reference.

To summarize a bit, because I know this one is going to get some discussion, I'm not saying Zito is a bad pitcher. He's better than he has been this year, but I don't see any way that this contract is going to go down as a good one. Sure, there's a chance he'll turn into Tom Glavine or Jamie Moyer and pitch forever, but when you're talking about $126 million you can't rely too much on wishcasting - the chances are not good that this will be a good contract.

Verdict: Bad, with a chance to be merely pretty damn bad and a chance to be one of the worst ever.

January 30th, 2007

Signed Barry Bonds to a one-year contract worth $15.8 million

It's hard to say anything about this - the Giants were going to re-sign Barry Bonds and they did. It's a one-year deal so the money isn't really a huge issue and the team frankly wasn't contending without Bonds so Sabean's hands were tied even if he hadn't wanted Bonds back. Even with his May tailspin, Barry has been one of, if not the, best hitter in the league, so it looks even better. The key to free agency, in my opinion, is the short-term contract. When you have young, homegrown players that's when you lock them up long-term, but free agency is almost always a market full of players past their primes (hitters peak around 29, pitchers possibly even sooner) so you're 9 times out of 10 going to pay for production you'll never get again.

Verdict: Good, inevitable contract.

April 1st, 2007

Signed Matt Cain to a four-year contract worth $9 million

Like the Lowry deal, this one is good, and a good precedent to set, but it wasn't the fleecing some seem to have interpreted it as. I don't think Cain left money on the table - he's basically forfeiting a few million in arbitration for the guarantee that, even if his arm falls off (STOP LETTING HIM THROW 110 PITCHES BOCHY) he'll be able to retire happily. I wouldn't have wanted to give him much more guaranteed money then we did, I don't think he left any on the table.

Verdict: Good deal, with the above explanation.

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Sabean clocks in for this last off-season with a superfically impressive six good contracts to three bad ones, but that doesn't really tell the story. The good contracts were all nice little deals, but the bad contracts ranged from inexcusable (Feliz) to possibly payroll-crippling (Zito). In addition, Sabean again backloaded the contracts making it even harder for the team of the future to compete. Look at it this way, would you rather have these contracts:

Zito: $18 million (7 year commitment)
Kline: $3.5 million (2 year commitment)
Roberts: $6 million (3 year commitment)
Feliz: $5 million (1 year commitment)

or these ones:

Daisuke Matzusaka: $17 million (6 year commitment with the posting fee averaged in to the contract)
Akinori Iwamura: $4 million (3 year commitment, again with the posting fee averaged into the contract)
Trot Nixon: $3 million (1 year commitment)
Jayson Werth: $1 million (1 year commitment)

And just pocket the extra $7 million - or better yet use it in the amateur draft to make a play at any signability issues that drop? Or, even if you aren't feeling adventurous, just

Ted Lilly: $10 million (4 year commitment)
Jose Guillen: $5.5 million (1 year commitment)
Jeff Cirillo: $1.5 million (1 year commitment), play him or Frandsen as you desire

And use the extra $15 million a year elsewhere? I know I would certainly prefer the latter.

Brian Sabean Review (Part Three)

JakeS — Sat, 19 May 2007 08:08:00 -0000

So, a little delayed but on the heels of that awesome showing by our $126 million man, here's the reviews for the 2006 season.

December 8st, 2005

Signed Mark Sweeney to a two-year contract worth $1.8 million

As a general move, this one wasn't bad - add a little first baseman depth for very little money, but expecting Sweeney to be anything close to a capable starter at first was certainly a mistake. With the benefit of hindsight, he's been a pretty poor hitter period over the course of the contract as well. Since it was a low-risk low-reward move, and we certainly got both ends, I'll call this one even, but it could be called a very minor good move as well - on par with a low-risk bullpen signing or something. Take whichever you prefer.

Verdict: Even/good, for the reasons listed above

December 8th, 2005

Signed Matt Morris to a three-year contract worth $27 million

This is a somewhat difficult contract to judge. On the one hand, the Giants certainly needed a starter, but on the other hand this seemed like a huge overpay at the time. Morris was coming off a year where he had a 4.11 ERA, slightly above average, but that had come on the heels of a year where had a 4.76 ERA with much the same peripherals. What worries me was that the statistic Sabean seemed to look at for those two seasons wasn't the middling strikeout rate but the 15-10 and 14-10 records behind the powerful Cardinals offense. As it turned out, we got the 4.76 ERA Morris for the first year of the contract and he's looked on the verge of implosion so far in this, the second year of the contract (more walks than strikeouts) - and we still have another year to pay him. At least we got lucky that the market for pitcher's contracts has shot up so much that his might be tradeable.

Verdict: Bad - Morris is an average pitcher at best and appears to be in decline. The saving grace is that the contract doesn't look as bad now, but Morris sure does.

December 21st, 2005

Traded Edgardo Alfonzo for Steve Finley

Well, Steve Finley was simply awful, as was expected, although Alfonzo was even worse. It's hard to decide - Finley contributed basically nothing with the bat (a 6.5 VORP, hooray!), and at least Alfonzo would have been released for his terrible play. On the other hand, while an atrocious hitter, if the team is insistent on giving Pedro Feliz regular at-bats at least he had a good glove at third.

Verdict: Good, I guess, but come on. Also, keep in mind, Sabes is the guy who signed Alfonzo's bad back in the first place.

December 23rd, 2005

Signed Jose Vizcaino to a one-year contract worth $1.2 million

This contract is in many ways one of the most damning Sabean has ever signed. It basically proved that he doesn't understand the concept of replacement level (I'm not high on Kevin Frandsen and I'm relatively sure he could could hit .210/.304/.261. It also points out his "quantity over quality" approach to free agency - why spend $12 million on Vladimir Guerrero when for the same price you could have Jeffrey Hammonds, Marquis Grissom, Jose Vizcaino, Mark Sweeney, and several chili dogs?! Also, giving Jose Vizcaino starts at first base was pretty much proof of Flippy's senility and I hold management responsible for not firing him on the spot.

Verdict: Great, great move.

February 28th, 2006

Signed Randy Winn to a three-year contract worth $23.25 million

This contract actually demonstrates one of Sabean's other flaws: his inability to comprehend the notion of "sample sizes." Randy Winn hit .359/.391/.680 down the stretch last season, that's like Mickey friggin' Mantle! Sign him up quick! What, a no trade clause? Sure, why would we want to trade Mickey Mantle?! Winn was miserable last year and even though it looks like he's bouncing back to his career averages this season that's still a bad contract for a team scrounging to put together a first baseman out of Ryan Klesko and Rich Aurilia.

Verdict: Bad move, both in logic and results.

November, 2006

Signed Noah Lowry to a four-year contract worth $9.25 million

Now, these pitching deals are good ones, but not nearly as good as people seem to think. They are basically medium-risk medium-reward type of moves - they buy out some arbitration years with somewhat below-market contracts but also guarantee money to young arms. Chances are this ends up looking like a pretty solid move (although I'm not sold on Lowry as anything more than a league-average starter), but there is always an injury risk for young pitchers and that's what the player is giving up the extra money to buy out.

Verdict: Good, but overrated.

July 21st, 2006

Traded Jeremy Accardo for Shea Hillenbrand and Vinnie Chulk

You could (and people have) built a damn good bullpen out of pitchers we basically threw away. Accardo is the new closer in Toronto with Ryan's injury and is looking great in the role while Vinnie Chulk is the same homer-prone fringe reliever he always was and Shea Hillenbrand managed to hit .248/.275/.415 and lead us to third place.

Verdict: It's a Sabean trade, what do you think? BAD.

July 28th, 2006

Traded Shairon Martis for Mike Stanton

When I originally read about this trade I thought it was a joke. Yeah, right, trade another semi-promising young arm for, like, the oldest pitcher in baseball. Good one.

Verdict: I don't care of Martis never makes it to AA, this is just stupid on principle. Like this team was just a Mike Stanton away from contention.

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So, broken down for signings and trades we have even to good signing (Sweeney) and two solidly bad signings (Morris, Vizcaino). Trades, we have one even to good (Finley), and two solidly bad (Stanton, Hillenbrand). For extensions we have one good (Lowry) and one bad (Winn). Another poor showing with a couple of just indefensible moves with the signing of Vizcaino and the just stupid trading deadline antics again. These last few seasons have me worried that Sabean is seriously going to bust out some sort of a Nate Schierholtz for Bob Howry deal this July just to stay in character.

Brian Sabean Review (Part Two)

JakeS — Wed, 16 May 2007 22:26:52 -0000

So, if I didn't make it clearer in the first installment, that section covered the 2004 season (both pre-season and mid-season), thus this installment will cover the preparation for the 2005 season as well as any mid-season transactions.

November 14th, 2004

Signed Omar Vizquel to a three-year contract worth $12.25 million.

Interestingly, I have to harken back to the Pierzynski trade to explain my verdict on this one. Coming into the 2005 season, Vizquel was a 38-year-old shortstop coming off a .291/.353/.388 season - above average performance when coupled with his defense but also the fourth best season of his entire career, a bit of a red flag for somebody of his age. In addition, he had missed half of the previous season due to injuries and failed a mid-season physical for a trade. Now, he's rewarded us with a solid performance (up until this year), but with the knowledge we had at the time this wasn't a good idea. If I'm not docking Sabean for the Liriano deal, I can't in good conscience call this a good one. In addition, we forfeited another draft pick for the signing

Verdict: Even, for the reasons listed above.

November 30th, 2006

Signed Armando Benitez to a three-year contract worth $21 million.

At the time of the signing, Benitez was coming off a monster season for the Marlins where he put up a 1.29 ERA for the Marlins, but there was more to it than that - he pitched just under 70 innings with a merely good 62/21 K/BB ratio and an average home run rate. In the season for that he pitched for three different teams and walked more than 4.5 batters per 9 innings, not a very reliable commodity. He was definitely the best closer on the market, but for a team that started an outfield of Feliz in left, Ellison in center, and Tucker in right, was Armando the piece to bring the team to contention? Yes, I know that those three were not intended to be the starters, but when you have Barry Bonds and Moises Alou manning the corners "unplanned injuries" isn't a card you can play. In addition, we sacrified our first round draft pick in a fairly strong draft.

Verdict: Bad deal because it did not address the team's needs.

December 13th, 2004

Signed Mike Matheny to a three-year contract worth $10.5 million and released A.J. Pierzynski.

The release of Pierzynski technically came after the signing, but these two were basically one move and an absolutely terrible one, top to bottom. First, we'll look at the release of Pierzynski. A.J. was coming off a season where he hit .272/.319/.410, a disappointing season, but a tolerable one in a league where the average backstop hit 258..323.392. He'd also alienated himself to the rest of the team and the fans, so Sabean could have been excused for not getting full value back in a trade, but he didn't even get that, he released him. He released a 27-year-old catcher coming off five consecutive above-average seasons. RELEASED. There is no excuse for that, none at all.

So, maybe he redeemed himself with the replacement? Hardly. Mike Matheny was coming off a season where he posted the lowest EQA of any catcher with 200 PA. His defense was legendary, sure, but he was the worst hitting starting catcher not only on the market, but in the big leagues. WARP, taking into account defense, valued his 2004 performance at 3.4, less than Pierzynski's showing in the season and that took into account Pierzynski's questionable defense. BEYOND THAT, we were the only team interested in Matheny's service - his agent expressed surprise that we offered him such an above-market contract. His old team was kicking him to the curb for YADIER MOLINA, and we payed him over $10 million. In his career with the Giants he hit an atrocious .239/.287/.388 before a concussion ended his career.

Verdict: Bad, bad, bad, and did I mention bad?

December 27th, 2004

Signed Moises Alou to a two-year contract worth $13.35 million

Now, Moises Alou absolutely raked over the course of this contract, enough to make the money worthwhile, but he also fell short of qualifying for the batting title in both seasons due to injuries. In addition, his numbers in San Francisco have been significantly higher than one would have projected given his three years in Chicago. I'll give Sabean some credit, I suppose for seeing some life left in Alou's bat, but his inability to add an adequate insurance policy in the event of Alou's inevitable injuries (Alex Sanchez, anyone?) keeps this from being a plus move.

Verdict: Even.

January 17th, 2005

Re-signed Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract worth $6.1 million

This move is a telling one because it highlights a flaw in Sabean's team-building logic: even if his plan really is to surround Bonds with cheap average players he doesn't know where to find average players. Pedro Feliz hit .276/.305/.485 in 2004, his age 29 season. Now, this was a much higher batting average than his totals in the few seasons prior, so it seemed safe to assume that he wouldn't match it in the next season as he entered the decline phase of his career. At absolute best, Sabean could have expected a repeat of his 2004 performance, so was that worth keeping around? In a word, no. Feliz's 2004 EQA was a career high .263 and was better than only Tony Batista and Edgardo Alfonzo in terms of starting third basemen. Over the two years of that contract he posted EQAs of .246 and .241, the latter making him the worst starting third baseman with the bat in all of baseball.

Verdict: By definition signing the worst player at a position cannot be a good deal.

May 28th, 2005

Traded Jerome Williams and David Aardsma for LaTroy Hawkins

This trade was just retarded. Jerome Williams has certainly fallen from grace but at the time he was still a reasonably interesting pitcher while Aardsma was a former first round draft pick who still looked like a closer in the waiting. We got 30 mediocre innings from LaTroy Hawkins out of the deal and later dealt him for Steve Kline, and while Williams is on the verge of losing a Nationals rotation spot, Aardsma is a late-inning reliever who has struck out 27 in 22 innings this year and occasionally touches 100 mph on the gun. But, yeah, I mean, LaTroy Hawkins, right?

Verdict: Just stupid.

June 30th, 2005

Traded Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba for Randy Winn

On the surface this trade looks like a good deal - and on the surface it is. We gave up a backup catcher and a prospect who had fallen for grace for an average outfielder who played much better than average for us down the stretch - but it wasn't a trade we should have made. On June 30th the Giants were five and a half games back from a very weak division but there were three teams ahead of them and pretty much nobody outside the Giants front office really thought they had a chance at a serious run of contention without Barry Bonds. As it turns out, those people were right, because even though the trade worked out as well as anybody could ever have hoped the Giants were never within four games of making the playoffs as they limped to a third place finish.

Verdict: Even - the trade itself wasn't bad in terms of the talent we gave up but we were buyers at a trade deadline where we should not have been.

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So, overall for the 2005 season Sabean clocks in with three even deals and four bad deals, not a good showing, especially given just how bad the bad deals were. Again he refused to sell at the trade deadline - he added Randy Winn (and Winn hit like the second coming of Mickey Mantle) and we weren't even close to making the postseason. Clearly we shouldn't have been buyers at the deadline if even adding a .359/.391/.680 line down the stretch left us seven games under .500, no? With a team as old as the one Sabean was fielding he doesn't get any slack for injuries either - giving a combined 1090 at-bats to Jason Ellison, Michael Tucker, Lance Niekro, and Deivi Cruz is a problem of depth, not of random chance. It was a miserable season to watch and I was amazed at the time that Sabean didn't get the axe following it.