SBNation.com User Blog: Jason Drake

Seahawks sign WR Brett Swain

Jason Drake — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 02:42:04 -0000

Seahawks sign WR Brett Swain

Swain caught two passes in 2011 with the 49ers, and six passes in 2010 with Green Bay. He was cut before the start of the 2012 season.

I Hate (Love) Russell Wilson

Jason Drake — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 18:53:28 -0000

I Hate (Love) Russell Wilson

Harrison Weinhold of Hogs Haven shares his perceptions and memories from prep school days.

Sidney Rice is Pro Bowl caliber

Jason Drake — Sat, 29 Dec 2012 20:16:52 -0000

A few days ago, the NFL announced their official list of 1,500 players who aren't good enough to be on the roster for the poorly named "Pro" Bowl. Our duty as fans is to give a quick smile and nod for those who did make the roster, then get down to the serious business of complaining about snubs.

Five Seahawk players were selected to play, and eight more were named as alternates. But short of making a convoluted anagram, the name "Sidney Rice" appears on neither list.

Shouldn't it?

Big Numbers and their Dubious Causes

The chosen wide receivers accumulated good total stats, be it receptions, yards, touchdowns, or name recognition. The chart below has Pro-bowl selections highlighted in green, with the top four in each category shown in bold:

(This list includes all NFC wide receivers who scored at least 190 DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) according to Football Outsiders. DPI = defensive pass interference).

Rice doesn't have the same big numbers, but there's a reason for this that should be obvious even to the balloting masses: He's been catching passes from a 3rd-round rookie quarterback. Of the four quarterbacks who are throwing to the selected Pro Bowl receivers, three are Pro Bowl veterans themselves (Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and Jay Cutler) and the fourth (Matthew Stafford) is a 4th-year veteran and #1 overall pick who should have gone to the Pro Bowl last year.

Somewhat less obvious is the fact that Rice doesn't catch as many passes because Seattle has been so capable of protecting big leads without having to run many pass plays:

Margin of victory 10+ points (6 games) = 35% pass plays
Margin of victory or defeat 1-7 points (9 games) = 49% pass plays

Sidney Rice played an important role in the early part of those blowout wins, when the games were still in doubt. But like a quarterback who retires to the bench, he stopped racking up the numbers as a result of his own efficiency. On the flip side, Seattle has accumulated zero yards of garbage time offense versus prevent defenses, having been within seven points in each of their losses.

And with their clock-killing drives, Seattle has ran just 59.1 offensive plays per game, compared to a league average of 64.4. Merely extrapolating Rice's numbers to that league-average would take him up to 57 receptions, 847 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Adjusting his numbers based on the dearth of passing plays in blowout wins would increase his statistics even more.

Efficiency as a Measure of Player Quality

Another way to compare receivers is to look at how well they do on a play-by-play basis. I pulled up stats for the above player list and produced an "adjusted yards" statistic, something that should give an even comparison that includes all touchdowns, fumbles, and defensive pass interference draws. It works much like the quarterback's adjusted net yards per attempt:

Total receiving yards + DPI yards + (20 X touchdowns) - (20 x fumbles)

(Note that players are only docked half as many yards for fumbles as for interceptions, because half of fumbles are recovered by the offense. This may actually be a little generous, because receivers still get receiving yardage credit if they fumble after a catch.)

So who are the best receivers in the NFC when measuring adjusted yards per reception?

Golden Tate and Sidney Rice.

Surprise, surprise.

But to make sure we aren't cherry-picking statistics here, I also calculated the adjusted yards per target. This includes all passes thrown toward the receiver, even those that are not considered catchable. Tate and Rice still came out in the top four.

Finally, I mitigated each of these numbers further with a contribution adjustment (more fully explained here). This gives a player more credit if he is targeted more frequently, so that a rarely-used deep threat receiver isn't overvalued based on his yards-per-catch average; and so that an often-targeted receiver gets credit for drawing more defensive attention. The contribution adjustment knocked Tate down significantly and vaulted Brandon Marshall to the top of the list. Sidney Rice remained at #3 and #4 (depending on whether you count per-target or per-reception).

Pro Bowl selections are highlighted in green, the top four in each category are shown in bold, and possible snub indicators in orange:

Playing Style and Quarterback-Receiver Synergy

Seattle fans are falling over themselves to profess their undying love for Russell Wilson, and rightly so. But he depends on receivers with complementary skills.

A Tom Brady or Peyton Manning will stand tall in the pocket, find the open man, and zip the ball in. They move the ball downfield by completing lots of passes. Russell Wilson has fewer throwing lanes, but he does have outstanding accuracy and range. He's less likely to hit a wide open receiver but perfectly capable of hitting that "NFL-sized-window" for a big play.

And Sidney Rice excels at making those big-time catches. If you don't already have it etched into your brain (and can tolerate the Internet's worst video service), check out the Week One Seattle-Arizona highlights from NFL.com. At 0:37, Rice shows his groundskeeper skills with a difficult low catch. He goes the other way at 1:30, scoring a touchdown by snatching from the air a ball that looked to be headed for the cheap seats.

At 0:22 in the Seahawks-Panthers highlight video, he shows his ability to go high in the middle of the field against tight coverage.

Most frequently, Rice provides his quarterback with an extended window by controlling the ball-- and his feet-- at the sideline.

The one-knee grab against the 49ers last Sunday should still be fresh in your mind. He made highlights with a 26-yard sideline grab against the Dolphins, and a foot-dragging touchdown against the Lions.

Want More?

Interceptions count against a quarterback's performance, and so too should fumbles count against a receiver. The sure-handed Rice has only one career fumble (and it did not come this year).

Wide receiver drop rates are notoriously difficult to find, but Rice was 5th best in the NFC from 2009-2011, dropping just 5.67% of catchable balls. I don't think he's dropped more than three this year, but if we pencil him in at four drops (we know for sure he hasn't had more than five) for a drop rate of 7.4%, that's still better than Brandon Marshall (8.1%), Calvin Johnson (7.9%), Dez Bryant (9.3%), Julio Jones (9.5%), Randall Cobb (10.1%), and Victor Cruz (10.9%).

Rice has started all 15 games for Seattle this year. He's demonstrated his resilience by playing through a knee injury, holding onto the ball after a brutal hit on a meaningless play (late game against Arizona), and coming back after being knocked in the head while scoring the season-defining game-winner against Chicago.

Seattle has played the second toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL, and only the DVOA stat in the above chart (for which Rice leads the NFC, naturally) accounts for strength of opposing defenses.

Advanced NFL Stats' Wide Receiver Rankings gives Rice an "expected points added per play" of 0.53, 3rd best among NFC wide receivers, and better than any of the selected Pro Bowlers. His WPA (win probability added) is even more impressive-- and it's important to note that this is neither defense-adjusted nor is it an efficiency stat. It measures total contribution to the team. Rice has a WPA of 2.19, second among NFC receivers to Calvin Johnson (2.70).

Snubbed? Homerism aside, an objective look at the numbers says that Dez Bryant belongs in the Pro Bowl. Roddy White is at least as deserving as Julio Jones, 'though either one could be considered on the fringe, and Victor Cruz is clearly riding on the strength of New York's superior voting numbers and not his own performance.

Sidney Rice would not be out of place in the NFC's top four. Failing that, his lack of inclusion among the alternates is a first-class snub.

Passing efficiency, work load, and R(QB)OTY

Jason Drake — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 21:49:46 -0000

Passing efficiency, work load, and R(QB)OTY

Here's an in-depth statistical analysis of the top three rookie quarterbacks from a Seahawk fan over at Field Gulls (me). After seeing more comments today about Luck deserving the award based on W-L, I thought some of you might appreciate a more intellectually honest account.

Passing efficiency, work load, and Rookie (Quarterback) of the Year

Jason Drake — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 00:41:30 -0000

I'm told that many SB Nation readers have their ballots ready at hand, eagerly awaiting a quantitative analysis to show whom they should select as Offensive Rookie of the Year and what name should go in the little box below labeled "in the conversation" (because apparently that's a thing).

Three quarterbacks-- Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Robert Griffin's grandson-- are all poised to lead their respective teams into the playoffs. There may be other deserving candidates, but fairness and thoroughness are the hallmarks of paid writers, which I am not. So let's talk about the quarterbacks.

Andrew Luck was the long-anticipated #1 overall pick in the draft. He's led his team to nine wins in 14 games, seven more than the Colts had all of last season. But he's played against softer competition and committed 23 turnovers.

Russell Wilson was initially overlooked by most teams because of his height (pun definitely intended). He's put up highly efficient numbers, especially in the last six weeks. But the Seahawks throw the ball less than any other team.

Robert Griffin was acquired by the Redskins in exchange for several draft picks, 5000 acres along the Potomac, and Daniel Snyder's left kidney. He's been impressive both running and throwing the ball. But he allegedly benefits from the brilliant planning of his head coach, and his running style has led to injury.

So: Can we quantify all of these factors to produce an objective comparison of the three?

No.

Can we quantify some of the factors, like competition level, surrounding talent and work load? Yes, obviously. Why else would I be posting this?

Surrounding Talent

Briefly and obviously, this is going to be subjective. The Indianapolis Colts posted a 2-14 record in 2011, but how much of that failure was purely on the quarterback, and how much is a general lack of talent? Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter combined for eleven losses, and neither is currently employed by an NFL franchise. By comparison, the Redskins' and Seahawks' starting quarterbacks from 2012, Rex Grossman and Tarvaris Jackson, are at least holding down backup jobs. It's not hard to improve on a very low baseline. With the reasonably-competent Dan Orlovsky (NFL QB rating 82.4 in 2011) starting, the Colts were 2-3, suggesting that their non-quarterback offensive talent is not so dismal.

Wins are what matter, but "wins" is the laziest and least-informative stat available. For a more thorough, play-by-play, opponent-adjusted measurement, we can use Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Comparing the 2011 numbers and the 2012 numbers, we see that the Redskins, Seahawks, and Colts have all improved with new quarterbacks. (Note that these are numbers through week 14, as Football Outsiders is currently suffering an outage because an upline supplier had to throw out a lead-tainted shipment of html tags.)

A good quarterback improves the running game by preventing opposing defenses from stacking the box. So it's not surprising that all three teams are improved in both passing and total offensive efficiency. The Redskins get an additional boost in total offense thanks to Griffin's own running (6.7 yards per carry). The Seahawks show the biggest improvement in both passing and total, some of which can be credited to having their top wide receiver and tight end come back from injuries.

Opposition Quality

A few weeks ago I analyzed Russell Wilson's improvement over the course of the season by measuring his per-game performance against each opposing team's pass defense, all using an omnibus passing statistic affectionately known as "Anya". ANYA stands for "adjusted net yardsperpassing attempt", and it's computed as follows:

(Passing yards + (20 X touchdowns) - (45 X interceptions) - sack yards) /
(pass attempts + sacks)

In essence, ANY/A is the average number of yards gained (or lost) on each drop back, measuring touchdowns and interceptions with a yardage bonus/penalty. If you're curious, the league average is around 5.9 adjusted yards/attempt (if you're not curious, the league average is "banana"). And because ANY/A is a simple, single-value measurement, we can then make a linear adjustment for each quarterback's performance versus each opponent. For example,

Andrew Luck vs. Green Bay Packers: 5.76 ANY/A
Green Bay defense season average: 5.2 ANY/A (0.7 below league average)
Luck's opponent-adjusted ANY/A for his game against Green Bay: 5.76 + 0.7 = 6.46

Robert Griffin vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.92 ANY/A
Tampa Bay defense season average: 7.1 ANY/A (1.2 above league average)
Griffin's opponent-adjusted ANY/A for his game against Tampa Bay: 8.92 - 1.2 = 7.72

I'll show those numbers in a bit. But first,

Efficiency, Shmefficiency -- Look How Often That Guy (Doesn't) Throw

Let's accept as axiomatic that it's easier to throw the ball if the opposing defense is playing to defend the run. So we need to account for the added difficulty when a quarterback is expected to throw more often. We could multiply his efficiency (Anya) by the percentage of pass plays, but it turns out that's a silly option. If quarterback A throws 100% of the time on ten plays for 80 yards, his ANY/A will be 8 yards/attempt. If quarterback B throws 50% of the time on ten plays for 80 yards, his ANY/A will be 16 yards/attempt. We cannot discount quarterback B by the direct proportion of 50%, because that would equalize the performances, and the second is clearly better (quarterback B got the same production with half as many throws).

Instead, we will calculate the throwing percentage for each quarterback and each game as a ratio of the league average (57.88%), then take the square root of that number for reasons I cannot possibly explain without boring you to tears. Confused? Here's how the contribution modifier looks across a few numbers:

The most pass-heavy game among these rookies is Andrew Luck versus the Chicago Bears in week 1, when he had 48 dropbacks versus 13 (non-quarterback) runs, for a raw percentage of 82.8%. That's 143% of the league average, which means his ANY/A for that game will be multiplied by 1.196.

On the opposite side, Russell Wilson's game against the Dallas Cowboys in week 2 included just 22 dropbacks versus 39 (non-quarterback) runs, for a raw percentage of 38.6%. That's 66.7% of the league average, which means his ANY/A for that game will be multiplied by 0.817.

Wait, what's that about excluding quarterback runs?

Ah, we have a question from my bold-faced alter ego. If we wanted to do this perfectly, we'd count quarterback scrambles as passing plays (which would lower the ANY/A for all three whilst raising the contribution modifiers). Then we'd also have to go through and figure out how to count designed QB runs (which are often for very short yardage), measure opposing run defense quality, rework the concept of contributions ratio, etc. But I only have a few hours to get this posted before the world ends, so that's not going to happen.

Instead, I've excluded all quarterback runs when counting the contribution modifier. That means Griffin's pass percentage is only calculated against runs by his running back teammates, giving him slightly higher numbers for it. And we can also assume that effective scrambling has already been measured by improved passing efficiency as it's likely to tie up an opposing defender as a QB spy.

Putting It All Together

The "raw" season ANY/A is per-attempt. The other numbers weight each game equally, so a quarterback's poor 20-attempt performance against a tough defense will count the same as his excellent 40-pass performance against a bad defense.

Things we haven't accounted for:
* Russell Wilson has played 6 home games and 8 away games. Luck and Griffin have each played 7 home games.

* Griffin has already missed an entire game due to injury. If we compensated by throwing out each of Luck's and Wilson's worst games, they would have adjusted ANY/A's of 6.24 and 7.32, respectively.

* Running:

Conclusion:
Ignoring his status as a rookie, Griffin's running has been his most historical accomplishment. Heck, 748 yards in 13 games at 6.7 ypc would be enough to earn a hefty contract for a rotational running back. But even if we throw out his running contribution, Griffin's passing is enough to put him at the top of the list for rookie quarterbacks.

If anyone ought to "be in the conversation", it's Russell Wilson. He's played a tougher schedule of opposing defenses with nearly the same efficiency as Griffin, fumbled less, and already played one more game. Seattle fans can also be excited by the fact that Wilson has outplayed Griffin over each quarterback's past six games, even if they have to accept that "Rookie of the Year" does not equal "Best Rookie Right Now".

Andrew Luck has simply been outplayed by his NFC counterparts. An objective measure of surrounding talent and team improvement shows no reason to believe that Luck has "done more with less". Even accounting for opponent quality and increased passing, his efficiency trails Wilson by as much as Wilson trails Griffin.

So is Luck a slow learner? Just not as good? In fact, he's playing quite well for a rookie, but I believe he's lagging behind Griffin and Wilson for a comparative lack of running. For every 100 non-running dropbacks (sacks and passing attempts), Andrew Luck has run the ball just 8 times. By that same measure, Wilson has run the ball 21 times and Griffin has run it 30 times. So Luck is less likely to keep a quarterback "spy" in the box, (presumably) less able to scramble for extra time, and more likely to throw incompletions or interceptions (by a staggering coincidence, each of the three quarterbacks have been sacked on 5.7% of the plays in which they passed or ran; so Luck isn't struggling to get rid of the ball).

We've heard that Luck has good athleticism and mobility for a quarterback. And I'm sure that's true... for a quarterback. But at 6'4", he just can't have the speed and acceleration available to the 6'2" Griffin or the 5'10.625183423" Wilson (they measure his height with a laser before every game). But Colts fans should not be worried. Extra mobility helps a rookie quarterback from the first snap he takes; whereas Luck's height and vision should pay off when he's had more experience reading NFL defenses at NFL speed. They just have to accept that "Rookie of the Year" does not equal "Projected Quarterback of the Future".

An objective (mathy) look at the improvement of the Seahawks passing offense

Jason Drake — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 19:19:02 -0000

Having made the subjective observation that Russell Wilson (or more precisely, the Seattle passing offense) has improved over the course of the season, I thought it would be fun to take a more scientific approach. I quickly devised an experiment whereby I would stick my head in an MRI, establish a baseline, and then compare subsequent brain scans while watching (a)video of the Seahawks passing offense in recent weeks, and (b)video of sexy women.

Unfortunately, this experiment was stymied by lack of access to the necessary equipment. I'd planned to sneak in to a hospital at night to make use of the MRI machine, but wouldn't you know it, they're open all night long. Still, we can guess what the results would be. This is one sexy offense.

Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt

Moving on, then, I settled for a mathematical analysis. I wanted a single, comprehensive number assigned to each week's performance. The best candidate for that is ANY/A, or "adjusted net yards per passing attempt". To get an ANY/A, we first add up the "adjusted" net passing yards, which includes a bonus for touchdowns and a penalty for interceptions:

Passing yards + (20 X touchdowns) - (40 X interceptions) - sack yards

We then divide that by the number pass attempts, including sacks. Simple enough? Wilson's numbers so far:

vs ARI ... 3.51
vs DAL ... 7.68
vs GNB ... 7.68
vs StL ... 1.41
vs CAR ... 5.89
vs NWE ... 12.1
vs SFO ... 3.2
vs DET ... 6.74
vs MIN ... 9.28
vs NYJ ... 9.74
vs MIA ... 9.03
vs CHI ... 8.28

These raw numbers, however, do not account for the differences in opponent quality. So I referenced each opponent's defensive ANY/A on the season, courtesy Pro-football-reference: [1]

ARI ... 4.6
DAL ... 7.0
GNB ... 5.3
StL ... 5.4
CAR ... 5.9
NWE ... 6.7
SFO ... 4.6
DET ... 6.0
MIN ... 6.1
NYJ ... 5.8
MIA ... 5.9
CHI ... 4.1

No surprises there, as New England and Dallas are relatively weak, but Chicago, Arizona, and San Francisco are all near the top of the league (the league average is 6.0; and Seattle is currently running 5.2 ANY/A, 6th in the league, in case you were wondering).

With that data at hand, we have a more honest look at the offense's performance, which I measured by subtracting the opponent's average ANY/A from Wilson & Seattle's actual ANY/A. The Dallas performance then becomes less impressive (+0.68 vs expected), the game against Arizona is not so awful (-1.09 vs expected), and the matchup with Chicago is outstanding (+4.18 vs expected). Preantepenultimately (yes, that's a word) this is all tied together with a linear regression (I used an online calculator because I was feeling lazy) to produce a "line of best fit". That should give us an objective, homer-prejudice-free measurement that shows improvement (or not). And it looks like this:

Cool, huh? The Mean y, 1.429something, indicates the average margin by which Wilson has outplayed opposing defenses (versus each opponent's expected performance) over the course of the entire season, and that by itself is a pretty good number. The positive slope, 0.427449..., shows the rate of improvement.

But...

We can see from a casual glance that the data points are pretty scattered. And that small number near the upper right, the correlation coefficient, indicates how well the data fit the line. The cc is always between -1 and +1, so 0.5598 can be considered a pretty strong correlation, but for a data set this small it's kind of iffy.

Away Games vs Home Games

A lot of the scattering, we know, comes from the disparity in performance between home and away games. Doing a separate linear regression for each yields:

The improvement during away games has been far more dramatic, and also far more consistent with a correlation coefficient of .8135 (very high). But that shrinks the sample size even further, and poses another disturbing question: Are Wilson and the passing offense improving in a way that can be expected to continue, or is the steep slope merely a reflection of bad play early on (i.e., interceptions) that has been cleaned up?

So to tie that all together, I created a site-adjusted value for each of Wilson's performances. In the season-average away game, Wilson's ANY/A has beaten opponent's expected by 0.224 yards/attempt. In the season-average home game, Wilson's ANY/A has beaten the opponent's expected by 3.12 yards/attempt. So I went through and subtracted .224 from each away-game ANY/A and subtracted 3.12 from each home-game ANY/A. Recomputing,

Notice that this time the Mean y is essentially zero (.0000833, if you aren't sure how to read the exponential shorthand). That's because this chart is strictly Wilson vs Wilson over time. But it takes us back up to 12 data points and produces a much better correlation coefficient (0.7444), something that you can see from the reduced scattering. And that means our conclusion is more certain. Yay!

Projecting the Remainder of the Season

Although the last chart is zeroed out in terms of absolute performance, we can apply the slope (+0.478) as a valid measure of improvement. Wilson's season-long average of +1.429 is the midpoint for game 6.5 (the San Francisco Patriots, I presume). So based on linear extension, he started the season at -1.2 vs. opponent's expected ANY/A, and is now playing at a level of +4.058 vs opponent's expected ANY/A (all relative to a neutral site). Continued linear improvement is well-nigh impossible, of course, unless Wilson figures out how to throw a negative number of interceptions (and hey, I wouldn't put it past him to come in as a nickel back, but we'll exclude that possibility for now). So going forward, I'm going to use +0.418, which is the slope we get if the 3-interception Rams game is excluded.

And of course, there will still be differences in home and away performance. Even if the entire offense is cool as liquid hydrogen when traveling, opposing defenses will tend to play better in their home stadiums and worse on the road. Meanwhile, the difference in slope between home- and away-game performances suggests that the season-average gap of 2.89 ANY/A should now be closed down to 1.3855 ANY/A, or +0.693 at home and -0.693 on the road. Using that, we can now make a highly speculative projection for the remaining games:

vs. ARI (4.6 defensive ANY/A) + 4.476 (Wilson projection) + .693 (site modifier) = 9.77 ANY/A
vs. BUF (6.1 defensive ANY/A) + 4.894 (Wilson projection) - .693 (site modifier) = 10.3 ANY/A
vs. SFO (4.6 defensive ANY/A) + 5.312 (Wilson projection) + .693 (site modifier) = 10.6 ANY/A
vs. StL (5.4 defensive ANY/A) + 5.730 (Wilson projection) + .693 (site modifier) = 11.8 ANY/A

Continuing the trends, the good news is that we'll win at least two of the next three Super Bowls. The bad news is that the Wilson era will be brief owing to his acsension to a higher plane of reality.

[1] Note that Pro-fooball-reference.com uses -45 yards per interception, but I decided the small difference was not worth recomputing everything.

Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt

Away Games vs Home Games

Projecting the Remainder of the Season

Seahawks reportedly waive WR Braylon Edwards

Jason Drake — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 23:17:49 -0000

Seahawks reportedly waive WR Braylon Edwards

Seattle has waived/injured WR Braylon Edwards, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.

Schefter reports Browner, Sherman facing suspension

Jason Drake — Sun, 25 Nov 2012 23:42:14 -0000

Schefter reports Browner, Sherman facing suspension

Adam Schefter reports that Seattle Cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are facing four-game suspensions for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy.

Per Schefter, Sherman and Browner insist they are innocent and are appealing the suspensions.

Richard Sherman preps his twitter for Detroit matchup

Jason Drake — Thu, 25 Oct 2012 20:33:13 -0000

Richard Sherman preps his twitter for Detroit matchup

Richard Sherman has allegedly changed his Twitter handle to something appropriate for facing Calving Johnson a.k.a Megatron. Sherman is reportedly using the handle "Optimus Prime".

Update (thanks to rrrhawkout!): Detroit players respond

Final NFL Preseason Power Rankings: National Media Edition

Jason Drake — Sat, 01 Sep 2012 20:55:27 -0000

Here are the final preseason NFL rankings, along with regular-season predictions, based on a composite of analyses from nationwide media sources.

#1 NFC East
Michael Vick, RGIII, Peyton Manning's Younger Brother, Jerry Jones... this division is absolutely loaded. In 2011, the NFC East had an aggregate record of 30-22 (not counting losses against the ultra-tough NFC East). The four teams combined for an astonishing 12 wins against the powerhouse NFC East.
Prediction: All four teams should make the playoffs. Two of them will win the Super Bowl.

#2 Dallas Cowboys
Third-year player Cowboys Stadium is poised for a breakout season; this behemoth could dominate the league for years to come. Dallas was just one win away from a division title in 2011.
Prediction: 9 wins and 7 really good excuses for losing.

#3 San Francisco 49ers
The Niners start the season at 13-3, making it nearly impossible for the other team in their division to catch up.
Prediction: San Francisco was only one game away from the Super Bowl last year. Look for them to go deep in the playoffs.

#4 The New York City Football National Football League Football Giants
At long last, Eli Manning has moved out of Peyton's shadow. He's newsworthy in his own right, without reference to being "Peyton's younger brother", or "living up to Peyton's reputation." Because the younger Manning has w-- PeytonPeytonPeytonPeytonPeyton. Damm. Sorry, Eli.
Prediction: The Giants should go deep in the playoffs. Seriously, though, what does that mean? It's not like there are 10 rounds, where "deep" could mean anything between 6 and 9. We're obviously fudging. But given the Giants' history of post-season runs after a crappy regular season, can you blame us?

#5 Belichick Bradys
Fifty million football fans think the Patriots will be good. But we're professionals, dammit, so when WE say they'll be good, it means we've figured out something you haven't. Really.
Prediction: Thanks to an NFL Network replay frequency that induces quantum MWI effects, we project the Pats to shatter NFL records for both wins and losses, finishing the season at 84-28.

#6 Green Bay Packers
After a wildly successful Aaron-Rodgers-in-the-shadow-of-Brett-Favre story in 2010, the 2011 Packers fell flat, doing little else besides playing football. They made a half-hearted effort to revise the 2007 Patriots' "perfect season" motif, but like a premature movie reboot, it was doomed to fail because the original was better.
Prediction: Green Bay will finish the season one win away from something really good.

#7 Pittsburgh Steelers
The defense is aging, but opponents will still have a very difficult time matching up against the Steelers' six Lombardi Trophies.
Prediction: Look for a 2-3 start, after which Pittsburgh will be excused from the remainder of the regular season. They will then go 5-0 in postseason, because Ben Roethlisberger just knows how to win in the playoffs. Presumably this involves outscoring your opponent, but we're pretty sure there's some other secret.

#8 Philadelphia Eagles
This has to be one of the most talented teams in the NFL. Because you can't argue with name recognition, and we've followed them closely enough to know the entire roster.
Prediction: It's astronomically unlikely that any team could be ravaged by injuries two season in a row, so we'll repeat our 2011 prediction with even more confidence: The Eagles will be great.

#9 Peyton Manning
The biggest free agency drama in recent years reached its conclusion when Peyton Manning acquired the Denver Broncos. Manning alone was projected to be a 10-win team; adding the Broncos to his roster makes him an instant contender.
Prediction: Expect the kickoffs in Denver to go deep.

#10 Hurricane Isaac
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc, say the great philosophers. So, tragic as it may have been for non-fans, 2005's Katrina was clearly the inspiration for the Saints' Super Bowl Championship that year... er, a couple of years later.
Prediction: If Isaac picks up, look for New Orleans to go deep.

#11 The Pittsburgh Steelers' Main Division Rivals
Sure, all NFL teams have big, strong men who wear pads and push each other around for a living. But the Baltimore Ravens play the Steelers twice a year, so they must be "tough" and "physical" to some higher degree.
Prediction: 6 "tough" wins, 4 "aggressive" wins, 3 "physical" losses, and 3 "gritty" losses.

#12 Detroit Lions
When this team makes it to the Super Bowl, then everyone will believe that they are a Super Bowl contender. See what we did there? Whatever happens, it comes back as an "I told you so."
Prediction: With Calvin Johnson at wide receiver, look for this team to throw the ball deep.

#13 Officials Labor Dispute
Insider reports say that the two sides have agreed in principle to a rookie salary cap for 20-something [football] officials. "We don't give a rat's ass about that," said a [labor] official. "How many [football] officials are in their twenties?" The sticking point, according one [labor] official, is a demand that [football] officials receive certain perks "comparable but not necessarily equal" to those of players. The NFL has offered three media reports each year, real or fabricated, involving [football] officials in nightclub brawls. Football/labor officials are holding out for six. "And they have to say that I punched out some punk kid, 'cause I don't like rap music or something," added a [labor] official.
Prediction: [Football] officials will cave in and accept the NFL's offer in exchange for a ban on derogatory use of the word "zebra".

#14 Texans
Just "Texans." Because "Houston Texans" sounds funny, doesn't it? You want to put in a comma like you do for the name of the city + state (Houston, Texas). Or just call them the Houston Oilers if you're an old fart.
Prediction: Utter domination of fantasy draft boards everywhere.

#15 New York Jets
The Jets' alleged weakness is their offense, something they adroitly corrected with the acquisition of Tim Tebow. A google search of "Tim Tebow New York Jets" returns over 20 million hits, compared to a bare 3 million for "Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons" and a paltry 671,000 for "Ryan Fitzpatrick Buffalo Bills". Enough said, right?
Prediction: This team will go deep. Into their offensive depth chart. Practice-squad deep. Desperate-trade-for-other-teams'-talent deep, even guys-off-the-street deep.

#16 San Diego Chargers
The Chargers struggled last year, but they still have Phillip Rivers.
Prediction: A slight rebound to 9-7.

#17 Chicago Bears
The Bears struggled last year, but they still have Jay Cutler.
Prediction: A slight rebound to 9-7.

#18 Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton's star is on the rise.
Prediction: 8-8

#19 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs struggled last year, but are hoping that Matt Cassell returns to form.
Prediction: 8-8

#20 Tennessee Titans
The Titans broke .500 last year, but the quarterback situation is fraught with uncertainty.
Prediction: You see what we're doing, right? We just look at last year's record and then adjust a bit based on how good and/or famous we think the quarterback is, then maybe bump them up a bit if they have recent playoff history. This isn't rocket science. If this were rocket science, the new Mars Rover would have been a tangled wreckage in some Cuban basement eight months ago.

#21 Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert.
Prediction: 7-9

See?

#22 Toronto Bills
The Bills started strong, but may have peaked early. By acquiring Mario Williams in the offseason, everything they've done since is dull by comparison.
Prediction: With global warming and a move to the north, look for this team to be one of the few playing deep into the 22nd century.

#23 Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were one competent GM away from acquiring former Green Bay backup Matt Flynn as their QBOTF. They settled for drafting Texas QB Ryan Tannehill, who has an impressive track record of being mentioned in the same sentence as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin (638,000 google hits, soon to be 638,001).
Prediction: The Dolphins should contend for the league's top spot in use of the word "rebuilding".

#24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is a sinkhole of anonymity. Even new head coach Greg Shiano's Wikipedia page is under construction. Seriously, his Wikipeida page. Even Ryan Succop has better presentation than that.
Prediction: 3:2 odds against the NFL bothering to record their game results.

#25 USC Trojans
Coach Pete Carroll is apparently trying to form a professional team somewhere in Oregon. Given his low draft grades, however, the project is unlikely to succeed.
Prediction: 11-1, 1st place in the Pac-12

#26 Cleveland Browns
Cleveland was just 4 games away from a perfect 0-16 season last year. By a staggering coincidence, they were also 4 wins away from a playoff berth. Can they continue this delicate balancing act?
Prediction: 0 wins, 0 losses, 16 ties.

#27 "The Scandal"
Shock waves rippled through the football world when it was revealed that Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck had graduated and was forgoing his final year of NCAA eligibility. In response to this grievous offense, the NFL announced disciplinary action in April, sentencing Luck to Career in Indianapolis. "Man, that's harsh," said a convicted serial killer currently on death row. "I wouldn't want to be in his shoes." Luck is eligible for parole in five years, depending on unspecified behavior conditions.
Prediction: Misery. Bitterness. Ennui.

#28 Da Raiders
Oakland football fans were somewhat underwhelmed by the passing of owner Al Davis last year. "Really, there's only one angle you can take writing about Al Davis," said one reporter, speaking on condition of anonymity. "But I've got a really nice piece written up for John Madden. I mean, I wish the guy the best and all, but when his time comes, it's going to be a real tear-jerker. Pulitzer Prize stuff."
Prediction: A 48% reduction in gameday violence, as jaded fans just go through the motions to uphold their reputation.

#29 St. Louis Rams
It hurts just to talk about this team. So we won't.
Prediction: Extraterrestrial observers, after years of disinterest in war, disease, and genocide, will finally be moved to pity by the plight of Steven Jackson. He will be transported to a parallel universe and allowed to play for a team that's "merely bad", earning a spot in the Hall of Fame.

#30 Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were just seven wins away from a playoff berth last year. Christian Ponder's development should bring them another step closer.
Prediction: If Adrian Peterson stays healthy, expect this team to be playing deep into November.

#31 Cincinatti Tigers
They made the playoffs last year. Behind quarterback... um... some guy.
Prediction: They might again.

#32 Atlanta Hawks or Falcons or whatever
They should-- sh-- *yawn* Really, is there anything interesting happening here?
Prediction: *zzzzzzz*

Red Bryant's Baby generates Twitter explosion

Jason Drake — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 19:04:10 -0000

Red Bryant's Baby generates Twitter explosion

Congratulations to Red Bryant on the birth of his son. The article and the quoted Tweets (which allege some remarkable "facts" about the baby) are amusing.

Cowboys fire Wade Phillips

Jason Drake — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 02:37:02 -0000

Cowboys fire Wade Phillips

Bad news for football fans. This will give the talking heads two more months of material on ~~NFL Today~~ Dallas Cowboys Today.

Seahawks discuss new league tackle policies

Jason Drake — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:29:00 -0000

Seahawks discuss new league tackle policies

From Doug Farrar, Yahoo! sports blog. Carroll, Bradley, Milloy and Hawthorne all share thoughts on the NFL's renewed focus in punishing violent hits.

Reggie Bush gives back Heisman Trophy

Jason Drake — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 21:29:22 -0000

Reggie Bush gives back Heisman Trophy

"Team sources" say Whitehurst wasn't worth trading for

Jason Drake — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 19:53:16 -0000

"Team sources" say Whitehurst wasn't worth trading for

Per Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports; scroll down to item #10 in the article.

Cole also predicts that Seattle is the team most likely to pick first in the 2011 draft.

Seahawks looking to trade RB Jones

Jason Drake — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 10:49:12 -0000

Seahawks looking to trade RB Jones

The National Football Post reports that Seattle tried to move Julius Jones during the draft, unsuccessfully. According to Mark Miller of Yahoo! Sports, he's still on the trading block.

What a shocker!

Hawthorne signs exclusive rights tender

Jason Drake — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:55:11 -0000

Hawthorne signs exclusive rights tender

MSNBC and the Sports News Bulletin are reporting that Hawthorne has signed his tender.

Earlier reports put the tender at $460,000 for one year.