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Anthony Reyes, looking to notch another W for the Tribe.

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Vaporstarter Adam Miller and the oft-injured Anthony Reyes were not tendered contracts by the Indians yesterday, rendering them free agents, but both pitchers signed minor league deals with the Indians just hours later.  These transactions remove both pitchers from the 40-man roster while retaining their services for at least one more year.  In the (admittedly unlikely) event Miller's career gets back on track this season, this series of moves avoids using up one of his option years, and should the Indians choose in the next year to restore him to the 40-man roster, he will have at least one option year left and will remain under club control at least through 2016.  Reyes remains optionless, of course, but still hypothetically could remain under club control through 2013.

The Indians also declined to offer a contract to reliever Jose Veras, who was arbitration eligible, rendering him a free agent, and there is no indication he will be re-signed.  Cleveland's 40-man roster now stands at 37, with 18 pitchers and 19 position players.

The Indians did tender a contract to pitcher Rafael Perez, who is eligible for arbitration (and to the other 28 players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible).  The non-non-tender to Perez was non-unexpected, despite a disastrous season in which he was the fourth-worst reliever in the majors (min. 30 IP) per WXRL, which estimates a reliever's actual impact on the chance of his team winning or losing games.  (That's "Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted," if you must know.  BP rates Perez as merely the 10th-worst reliever at preventing runs from scoring, but because he blew more runs than his peers in high-leverage game situations, his negative impact on wins and losses was more substantial.)

Perez spent almost two months in the minors but still qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player with several weeks to spare.  As a relief pitcher coming off a terrible season with barely enough service time to qualify, Perez is in line to be awarded perhaps the smallest salary of any player going to arbitration, probably less than $1 million.  It's worth recalling, at this point, how outstanding Perez was in his truly super two-plus seasons prior to this one.  He had a 2.89 ERA (and 152 ERA+) over 149.1 IP.  He struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, with 3.7 strikeouts for every walk.  He held lefties to a .241 slugging percentage and allowed them only nine extra-base hits in 249 PA.  As long as we keep tendering him contracts, he remains under club control through 2013, and there is a reasonable chance he will re-emerge as an impact reliever, or at the very least a useful one, at some point in that span.

Other notable non-tenders include former Indians Ryan Garko and Ryan Church.  Garko of course was traded to the Giants only months ago for a decent enough pitching prospect.  Just 115 abysmal AB later, Giants GM Brian Sabean is now saying he doesn't want to pay upwards of $3 million to a guy who isn't really an everyday player.  I'm not saying he's wrong, but it's a pretty hilarious statement to make for a guy who will still owes $83 million to Barry Zito for the next four seasons.  McCovey Chronicles has a pretty dead-on take on Sabean's curious sequence of decisions.  My theory is that you just can't understand how slow this guy is on the basepaths until he's actually on your team, and maybe Wedge actually deked the Giants with respect to Garko's athleticism by playing him in the outfield.

Expect the cleveland.com crowd to clamor for Garko's return, oblivious to the fact that two teams have now deemed him unworthy of an everyday role in the space of just a few months.  Despite high regard for his character, I would be surprised if Shapiro brought him back, even at a substantially reduced salary. I rather expect Garko will be signed by a GM who scouted him as a college player and was impressed with his stroke.  As a lefty batter, Church doesn't really fit in with the Indians' plans.  Other interesting non-tenders include Pirates closer Matt Capps, Yankees sinkerballer Chien-Ming Wang, and third baseman Garrett Atkins.  Atkins is perhaps best remembered as the guy that the Indians never even considered trading Aaron Laffey to get.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians took an interest in Mike MacDougal; they seem to like guys who used to be closers.

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More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Could Sowers finally be the number-four starter of our dreams?

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ACTA Sports has begun taking orders for The Bill James Handbook 2010, which customarily will include James' projections for every major league player.  (Full disclosure:  ACTA occasionally sends me a review copy of one of their books, and I am totally in the bag for them.)

James' proprietary performance projections, while perhaps less obsessed-over than PECOTA or even CHONE, are among the most credible ones publicly available.  More to the point, ACTA has released the projections on a few key Indians right now, so let's put our greedy little eyes on them and get an early start on the expectation-setting. 

First, the pitchers:

Key Indians Pitchers (by ERA)
Player	IP	W	L	K	SV	ERA
Kerry Wood	56	4	3	62	27	3.54
Justin Masterson	171	10	9	151	0	4.00
Jeremy Sowers	150	7	9	81	0	4.44

WOOD:  I don't know how James is projecting the Save stat, and I certainly don't care.  James' system sees Wood as a pitcher who can still rack up the strikeouts and who generally, therefore, will prevent runs from scoring.  This doesn't look like a $10 million closer, but it looks more than serviceable.

MASTERSON:  Probably the best news in the press release is James' divination of Masterson as a solid number-two starter in 2010.  I'm not even sure what to say about it, but I like it.

SOWERS:  Less surprising but still heartening is the prediction that Sowers can settle in as a solid #3-#4 guy (don't argue), and damn it, that's all we've really asked of the guy, and it didn't seem like that unreasonable of a demand.

Of course, these projections are probably purely statistical, utilizing little if any subjective information, but they do suggest that there isn't too much urgency to the idea of adding a fungible fourth-starter type on the cheap this offseason.

Now the hitters:

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