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Around SBN: A (hidden) Statistic for Gauging Schools’ Run Defenses

Mordecai_brown

Jeff Sackmann

Mar 29, 2008 Dec 10, 2009 1855 10284

Jeff Sackmann consults for several major league teams. He is also the creator of Minor League Splits and co-creator of College Splits.

Jeff lives in New York City, where he earns his keep helping people get into business school. He has written Total GMAT Math and The GRE Math Bible, in addition to dozens of other test-prep resources.

a fan of

Milwaukee Brewers Major League Baseball Team

Roger Federer, The Bryan Brothers, Elena Dementieva, Zi Yan Tennis Player(s)

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Let's Sign Mike Cameron Anyway

This is what I'm talking about, baby. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

This is what I'm talking about, baby. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

We've got Carlos Gomez now.  I haven't looked really closely at his numbers, but my first take is that it's a fair deal.  The Twins get a somewhat better player for 2010 in J.J. Hardy, but we get someone who is cheaper, fills a hole, and might improve while still under team control.

But...reasonable people can disagree, and evaluating the Hardy-Gomez deal isn't my point.  [Jordan just published some interesting thoughts on the deal.  Even though I've rudely buried his post, go read what he has to say.]

Instead, I'd like to suggest that, against the sudden, unanimous conventional wisdom, we still re-sign Mike Cameron.  (I haven't read through all the comment threads yet, so I apologize if I'm repeating somebody else's idea.)

Here are some things to consider:

1. Cameron is undervalued.  (Yes, I know I'm opening up another can of worms here.)  He's an elite defender, he has aged well, and he may be willing to come back to Milwaukee at a discount.  If we can sign him for less than or equal to what we paid last year, we've got a deal.  A much better deal than we'd get spending an equivalent amount on pitching.

2. Cameron or Gomez can play right field.  The Mariners have shown the value of having elite defenders in more than one outfield spot.  Cameron has played corners in his career.  Center field prowess translates pretty reliably to corner outfield prowess.  For those of you with a statistical bent: The positional adjustment would change, but a +10 CF would probably be +15 or so in right, so it would come close to evening out.

3. Outfield defense is important.  Suppan is a fly ball pitcher.  Looper is a fly ball pitcher.  (Though most of his fly balls are out of reach.)  If we sign Washburn, there's another one.  If we're shopping for mid-rotation guys, fly ball pitchers aren't necessarily bad--IF we have an elite defensive outfield.  It would make Doug Melvin's job easier, actually: Ground ball pitchers are generally more valuable than fly ball pitchers since teams stick Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez in the outfield.  (And other reasons, but I don't want to digress.)  So having the freedom to sign fly ball guys would give Doug some flexibility.

4. Corey Hart is getting expensive, and he is not necessarily very good.  Unlike with Hardy, I don't have a ton of faith Corey Hart being a valuable part of a contender.  Yet, his name reliably comes up in trade rumors.  Maybe Hart + Gamel will get us that starting pitcher.  It's tough to gauge this from the outside, but I get the impression that we could receive fair value in a Hart trade.

5. Worst case scenario, we've added Gomez as a fourth OF.  Maybe we can't trade Hart, but payroll hasn't really gone up.  Then, depending on how the season goes, we can flip Cameron or (more probably) Hart to a team that develops a need.  The outfield would be crowded, and it would prevent a Gamel move to right field, but too much talent isn't a bad thing, and I don't get the impression Gamel is shagging fly balls this offseason anyway.

Like most of my offseason proposals, I don't think this is what Doug is going to do.  But I think it's what he should do.

38 comments  |  1 recs

What we should've traded for Zach Greinke last offseason: A photo essay

In case you hadn't heard, Zack Greinke is having a(n) historically great season.  I would express his value in terms of Yuniesky Betancourts, but Yuni has negative value, so that would be impossible.  If Greinke were a Brewer, we would have about 105 wins right now.  

Without further ado, a photo essay.  What we should've traded for Zack Greinke last offseason.

Jeffress_medium

via minorsupdate.mlblogs.com

Corey-hart-2_medium

via rumorator.com

Mparraaz_medium

via www.brewerfan.net

R2jkpwwg_medium

via padrestv.mlb.com

8345_medium

via msn.foxsports.com

Macha1-103008_medium

via media2.620wtmj.com

33a_medium

via 2.bp.blogspot.com

Tony_gwynn_jr_0708-1_medium

via www.autographinglive.com

Richardjefferson_medium

via wildaboutazcats.com

Haudricourt_medium

via www.espnmilwaukee.com

Huntsville_stars-logo-55731213dc-seeklogo

via www.seeklogo.com

Image1847330g_medium

via wwwimage.cbsnews.com

If we had thrown in a couple million to cover salaries, I think that might just have gotten a deal done.

36 comments  |  7 recs

In the final round of qualifying in Cincy, Julien Benneteau lost to Lukasz Kubot. Kubot earned a first-round matchup against Jose Acususo, which he lost. Even if Kubot had won, he would've drawn Federer in the second round.

But...Benneteau, the only LL in the draw, replaces Del Potro. That is, he gets a bye into the second round, just like DP would've. He'll face Jurgen Melzer for a spot in the third round.

That's lucky.

3 months ago Mordecai_brown_tiny Jeff Sackmann 3 comments 0 recs

Minor League Notes - 07/07/2009

Nashville Sounds (Triple-A) - 48-37
Won 5-4 vs Albuquerque Isotopes (LAD) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (Double-A) - 45-40
Lost 6-1 vs West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (SEA) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) - 8-6
Lost 2-1 vs Idaho Falls Chukars (KAN) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) - 5-9
Lost 10-7 at AZL Cubs (CHC) (box / pbp)

DSL Orioles/Brewers (Rookie) - 13-20
Lost 11-4 vs DSL Blue Jays (TOR) (box / pbp)

Top Prospects:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Escobar, AlcidesNashvilleSS4010010.302SB
Salome, AngelNashvilleC4110000.283
Green, TaylorHuntsvilleDH3010010.308
Garfield, CameronHelenaC4000021.342
Gillespie, ColeNashvilleLF3210110.2372B
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Braddock, ZachHuntsville2.02001300.00

Top Performers:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Trejo, EdgarHelenaDH3121010.2412B, HR
Cequea, AllixonAZL Brewers1B4032000.3172 2B
Katin, BrendanNashvilleRF4113030.275HR
Heether, AdamNashville3B4130000.328
Dedrick, WayneAZL Brewers3B3111010.2812B
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Rosario, AdrianHelena6.05111701.93Game Score: 64
Lamontagne, AndreHelena3.00101200.93(L, 0-1)
Wooten, RobertHuntsville1.00000100.00
Linares, EdwinDSL Brewers1.02000202.88
Houston, RyanNashville0.30000002.12(W, 5-1)

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Minor League Notes - 07/05/2009

Huntsville Stars (Double-A) - 45-38
Lost 11-8 vs West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (SEA) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High-A) - 46-28
Won 3-1 at Tampa Yankees (NYY) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low-A) - 41-39
Won 10-8 at Burlington Bees (KAN) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) - 8-5
Won 4-2 at Great Falls Voyagers (CHW) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) - 5-7
Lost 17-4 vs AZL Padres (SDP) (box / pbp)

Top Prospects:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Lawrie, BrettWisconsin2B4011100.273
Lucroy, JonathanHuntsvilleDH3100210.247GDP
Garfield, CameronHelenaC3020101.382
Dykstra, CutterHelena2B5100010.152SB
Gindl, CalebBrevardRF3010100.296SB
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Aguilar, OmarBrevard1.00001100.00(S, 2)
Lintz, SethAZL Brewers3.03414503.72(L, 0-2)Game Score: 44
Bowman, MichaelBrevard5.36114404.18Game Score: 52
Adams, CodyWisconsin5.06422105.40(W, 2-5)Game Score: 42

Top Performers:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Kjeldgaard, BrockWisconsin1B5232010.228HR
Hopf, MikeHuntsvilleC5132000.214HR
Sanchez, JuanWisconsinCF6231000.244HR
Caufield, ChuckieHuntsvilleLF4222011.2782B, HR
Melillo, KevinHuntsville1B5132010.2732 2B
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Rapoza, BrandonBrevard2.71000402.50(W, 2-1)
Krestalude, DamonHelena6.04224504.80(W, 2-1)Game Score: 57
Salmon, MarcusHelena1.70002200.00(H, 1)
Fiers, MichaelHelena1.00000100.00(S, 3)
Wooten, RobertHuntsville1.00000100.00

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Minor League Notes - 07/03/2009

Nashville Sounds (Triple-A) - 46-36
Won 3-1 at Round Rock Express (HOU) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (Double-A) - 45-36
Lost 5-3 at Tennessee Smokies (CHC) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High-A) - 45-27
Won 4-2 vs Daytona Cubs (CHC) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low-A) - 39-39
Lost 9-7 vs Clinton LumberKings (SEA) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) - 7-4
Won 6-5 at Billings Mustangs (CIN) (box / pbp)

DSL Orioles/Brewers (Rookie) - 13-16
Won 9-8 (12 innings) at DSL Angels (LAA) (box / pbp)

Top Prospects:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Escobar, AlcidesNashvilleSS4130100.3023 2B, SB
Lawrie, BrettWisconsin2B4110120.2732B
Lucroy, JonathanHuntsvillePH0001100.253
Cain, LorenzoWisconsinCF4110110.250
Gillespie, ColeNashvilleLF4000010.234
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Periard, AlexandreBrevard4.02114302.25Game Score: 53
Scarpetta, CodyWisconsin3.01003403.42
Nieves, EfrainWisconsin2.08994116.83(L, 2-5)Game Score: 1
Parra, MannyNashville7.02002702.92(W, 1-2)Game Score: 78

Top Performers:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Javier, JhonatanDSL BrewersDH-C3331100.3542B, SB
Errecart, ChristopherBrevardDH4123010.2462B, HR
Marseco, MichaelWisconsinSS4123000.1913B
Koshansky, JosephNashvillePH1111000.218HR
Dhanani, KyleHelena3B3111010.1822B, SB
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Fiers, MichaelHelena2.00000200.00(S, 2)
Almonte, RigobertoWisconsin3.02002406.46
Henderson, JimBrevard3.01110209.53(W, 1-0)
Mercedes, RoqueBrevard2.02001400.96(S, 4)
Houston, RyanNashville1.00000102.22(S, 3)

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Minor League Notes - 07/03/2009

Nashville Sounds (Triple-A) - 45-36
Lost 7-5 at Round Rock Express (HOU) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (Double-A) - 45-35
Won 4-3 at Tennessee Smokies (CHC) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High-A) - 44-26
Game 1: Won 9-4 (7 innings) at Charlotte Stone Crabs (TAM) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High-A) - 44-27
Game 2: Lost 2-1 (7 innings) at Charlotte Stone Crabs (TAM) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low-A) - 39-38
Won 4-3 vs Clinton LumberKings (SEA) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) - 6-4
Won 5-4 at Billings Mustangs (CIN) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) - 5-5
Won 3-1 at AZL Rangers (TEX) (box / pbp)

DSL Orioles/Brewers (Rookie) - 12-16
Lost 13-10 (10 innings) vs DSL Red Sox (BOS) (box / pbp)

Top Prospects:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Escobar, AlcidesNashvilleSS3021101.2972B, 3B
Lawrie, BrettWisconsin2B4120010.274
Lucroy, JonathanHuntsvilleC5010010.253
Cain, LorenzoAZL BrewersCF3000000.444
Garfield, CameronHelenaDH3000030.393
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Anundsen, EvanBrevard (2)6.04113401.99Game Score: 61

Top Performers:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Kjeldgaard, BrockWisconsin1B4222000.2202B, HR
Koshansky, JosephNashville1B4221110.2152B, HR
Wheeler, ZelousBrevard (1)SS3232000.2352B
Wilson, SteffanBrevard (1)3B4230100.3002B
Abreu, JoanDSL Brewers2B2221100.1672B
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Burgos, HiramHelena4.731113011.57Game Score: 56
Oviedo, JoseAZL Brewers2.01002300.00
Lasker, MaverickAZL Brewers3.02101303.60(BS, 1)(W, 1-0)
Butler, JoshuaHuntsville2.01000102.25Game Score: 55
Fiers, MichaelHelena1.00000100.00(S, 1)

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Minor League Notes - 06/30/2009

Nashville Sounds (Triple-A) - 44-35
Lost 5-1 vs Oklahoma City RedHawks (TEX) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (Double-A) - 43-35
Lost 7-2 at Tennessee Smokies (CHC) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low-A) - 37-38
Lost 4-2 vs Clinton LumberKings (SEA) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) - 4-4
Lost 9-6 vs Billings Mustangs (CIN) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) - 4-4
Lost 8-1 at AZL Athletics (OAK) (box / pbp)

DSL Orioles/Brewers (Rookie) - 12-14
Won 9-2 vs DSL Mets (NYM) (box / pbp)

Top Prospects:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Escobar, AlcidesNashvilleSS4000010.294
Salome, AngelNashvilleC3000110.280
Lawrie, BrettWisconsin2B3000110.264CS
Lucroy, JonathanHuntsvilleC4000000.254
Gillespie, ColeNashvilleLF3111020.236HR
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Lintz, SethAZL Brewers3.74304314.05

Top Performers:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Ellington, ChrisHelenaLF5131000.4172B
Raburn, JohnHuntsville2B-SS4221011.234HR
Romero, FranklinAZL BrewersCF4120000.1843B
Javier, JhonatanDSL BrewersDH3013110.3522B
Martinez, AndresDSL BrewersSS4310111.2463B, SB
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Ginter, MattNashville3.00003203.05
Ritchie, BrandonWisconsin1.71000101.59
Ohlmann, LiamWisconsin3.71212303.49(L, 2-3)
Salmon, MarcusHelena2.32003100.00
Johnson, DaveNashville1.01000003.94

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Minor League Notes - 06/29/2009

Nashville Sounds (Triple-A) - 44-34
Won 11-1 vs Oklahoma City RedHawks (TEX) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (Double-A) - 43-34
Lost 7-2 at Tennessee Smokies (CHC) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High-A) - 43-26
Won 8-5 at Charlotte Stone Crabs (TAM) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) - 4-3
Won 11-3 vs Billings Mustangs (CIN) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) - 4-3
Won 7-1 vs AZL Cubs (CHC) (box / pbp)

DSL Orioles/Brewers (Rookie) - 11-14
Won 3-0 at DSL Pirates (PIT) (box / pbp)

Top Prospects:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Escobar, AlcidesNashvilleSS4101000.298
Salome, AngelNashvilleDH4111030.284
Lucroy, JonathanHuntsvilleC3110110.2582B
Cain, LorenzoAZL BrewersCF2010100.5002B
Gillespie, ColeNashvilleLF3111010.234
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Arnett, EricHelena2.02100206.00Game Score: 52
Odorizzi, JacobHelena6.05221406.30(W, 1-1)
Dillard, TimNashville8.04114303.86(W, 8-3)Game Score: 69
Bowman, MichaelBrevard5.07544124.67(W, 3-2)Game Score: 32

Top Performers:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Gindl, CalebBrevardRF4342000.2842 2B, HR
Katin, BrendanNashvilleRF4231000.2752 2B, HR
Halton, SeanAZL Brewers1B4231010.3932B, HR, SB
Heether, AdamNashville3B3223100.333HR
Dykstra, CutterHelena2B4124100.200HR
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Rapoza, BrandonBrevard2.00000202.48(H, 4)
Fiers, MichaelHelena1.00000200.00
Linares, EdwinDSL Brewers1.00000201.53(S, 5)Game Score: 55
Guerrero, LuisAZL Brewers2.000021014.29(W, 1-0)
Seidel, RichardAZL Brewers5.04113206.75Game Score: 54

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Minor League Notes - 06/25/2009

Nashville Sounds (Triple-A) - 42-32
Lost 4-0 (6 innings) at Albuquerque Isotopes (LAD) (box / pbp)

Huntsville Stars (Double-A) - 41-32
Won 12-1 vs Chattanooga Lookouts (LAD) (box / pbp)

Brevard County Manatees (High-A) - 40-25
Lost 7-5 vs Palm Beach Cardinals (ST.) (box / pbp)

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low-A) - 35-36
Won 4-1 vs Peoria Chiefs (CHC) (box / pbp)

AZL Brewers (Rookie) - 1-3
Lost 8-5 vs AZL Athletics (OAK) (box / pbp)

Helena Brewers (Rookie) - 2-1
Won 8-1 vs Missoula Osprey (ARI) (box / pbp)

Top Prospects:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
Escobar, AlcidesNashvilleSS2000000.296CS
Salome, AngelNashvillePH1000010.281
Lawrie, BrettWisconsin2B4100010.263
Lucroy, JonathanHuntsvilleC5124010.2632B, HR
Garfield, CameronHelenaDH4010020.538
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Braddock, ZachHuntsville1.70000300.00
Periard, AlexandreWisconsin4.76111303.18Game Score: 50
Lintz, SethAZL Brewers2.01334409.00(L, 0-1)Game Score: 42

Top Performers:

BatterTeamPosABRHRBIWKEAVGNotes
McPhearson, DerrickHelenaCF3321100.4552B, 2 SB
Braddock, ZachHuntsvilleP11140001.000HR
Walla, MaxwellAZL BrewersRF5222020.353HR
Brownstein, MikeAZL Brewers2B4231100.643
Prince, JoshuaHelenaSS3221210.3642 SB, CS
PitcherTeamIPHRERWKHRERADecNotes
Krestalude, DamonHelena6.02001300.00(W, 1-0)Game Score: 70
Bramhall, RobertHuntsville6.34113605.51(W, 4-4)Game Score: 64
Rivas, AmauryBrevard6.02213503.61Game Score: 64
Merklinger, DanielWisconsin3.02001403.18(S, 1)
Tyson, NicholasWisconsin1.30000200.00(W, 1-0)

 

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