SB Nation User Blog: Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

MVN shutting Down

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:22:47 -0000

MVN shutting Down

I wonder where Minda and Greg will end up posting next.

Blogger Hints 101 - "Headlines to Get Your Baseball Blog Noticed and Increase Traffic"

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 06:15:07 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Are you sure this is 101 level material?

Browse more photos »

The following is a list of topics that get people's attention and blood boiling like Jerod Morris did with his piece on steroid speculation and Raul Ibanez. Nothing will bring recognition to your blog than a story that captures people's interest. No need to worry about the validity of it. By the time someone finds out, your monthly traffic will have doubled to 20 people.

These topics are not in any way set in stone. Feel free to change names and teams to go after the headliners of the day. Remember everyone can write about the greatness Albert Pujols or Joe Mauer, it takes a real blogger to prove that Jeremy Affeldt was robbed of the MVP this last year.

Attention Making Headlines

Three Red Sox Players in Love Triangle: Look at Next Trade for the Odd Man Out
Damon goes from 12 to 17 to 24 HRs: Gotta be Steroids
Steven Stratsburg: Put Him in the HOF Right Now

Odds are only 20 to 1 that Griffey will not be injured this Year

Half of Royals Team Fight Over Who is the Worst Baseball Player

Yankees Sold to Bill Bidwell

Vivid looking to Sponsor 2011 All Star Game

Red Sox Contemplating move to Paris

Dayton Moore makes 3 Logical Moves in a Row

Nolan Ryan to Un-retire to Help Texas with Playoff Push

20 Smelliest Players in the League

Puhlos to be traded for Fuckudome and Zambrano

Linecum Steroid User Since Age 12

Randy Johnson Porn Tape Revealed

Bloomquist or Ekstein: Who Should be Greatest Player of the Decade

Milton Bradley Robbed of Roberto Clemente Award

Roy Halladay Traded

Mike Jacobs Contemplating Move to Short Stop

Wins and RBI's: The Corner Stone of any Real Statistical Analysis

Red Sox Looking to Sign Major League Shortstop

Arod Claims to Have No Centaur Painting - "They are Satyrs Stupid"

I hope you enjoyed this edition and our next installment will be on dating.

Previous Installments:

"Ways to Improve Your Mom's Basement"

Comparision of UZR/150 Projections

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:04:58 -0000

Recently, Steve Sommer (click here for link) and I (click here for link) both released projected UZR/150 values for the 2010 season.

Note: When I published the original data, I didn't have the UZR/150 rates, but I now have them included.

Steve used a regressed three year weighted average of UZR along with a one year weighting of Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report (FSR). I extended my values back 4 years, but did not include FSR data. Steve and I both decided to compare our data and run our separate analysis in 2 separate articles (link to Steve's article).

I don't believe just using UZR values is the best method, but it was a start for me. I planned to attempt to add FSR to my projections next year, but I figured I would baby-step my way into the projection realm. Seeing that Steve also made the attempt, I wanted to see how our data compare and what can be done to further improve it. Here are three areas where the results showed some useful information or where further analysis could be done.

Aging Factor

On average, Steve's UZR/150 values were 0.16 higher than mine. I expected the value to be higher since I had a -0.7 UZR/150 aging factor added onto my values and he didn't use an aging factor. This tells me that the fans have already observed and factored into their values the player's aging process. I am not for sure about the accuracy of the -0.16 UZR/150 aging factor, but it will give anyone using the FSR for projections a reasonable starting point.

Standard Deviation Between Datasets.

The overall standard deviation (SD) of the difference between Steve's and my values was 2.0 UZR/150. This puts 95% of all the values within ~4 UZR/150. By looking a little farther, the more a player played at a position, the lower the standard deviation. For example players with <150 games at the position over the last 4 seasons had a standard deviation of 2.4 UZR/150 while the players that had over 600 games at the position had a SD of 1.3 UZR/150. Here is a table that summarizes the results:

Games at Position	Stand Deviation of Difference	Games at Position	Stand Deviation of Difference
<150	2.4	<150	2.5
150 to 299	1.9	<299	2.2
300 to 449	1.8	<449	2.1
450 to 599	1.4	<599	2.1
>= 600	1.3	All	2.0

Not much to say that isn't obvious. The more a player plays, the more his talent is revealed.

Outliers

Here are the players whose values deviated by more than 2 SDs (with Everett and Cust being the only 2 that varied by more than 3 SD):

Name	Position	w/ FSR	wo/FSR	Absolute Difference	Games in Last 4 Years at Position
Jack Cust	RF	-16.3	-8.8	7.4	104
Adam Everett	SS	5.7	12.0	6.3	375
Everth Cabrera	SS	-2.7	-8.4	5.7	102
Brett Gardner	CF	2.7	8.5	5.7	121
Trevor Crowe	LF	6.4	1.9	4.5	32
Eric Hinske	RF	-4.1	0.4	4.5	136
Chris Dickerson	LF	7.5	3.2	4.4	65
Austin Kearns	RF	6.0	10.4	4.4	441
Milton Bradley	RF	-2.6	1.7	4.3	225
Chris Coghlan	LF	-3.2	-7.4	4.3	123
Justin Upton	RF	4.1	-0.2	4.2	279
Mike Aviles	SS	2.0	6.1	4.1	125
Eric Byrnes	LF	3.9	8.0	4.1	235

Again, many of these players have not spent much time in the major leagues. The average number of games for all 317 players was 279 games at the position over the last 4 years while the players on the previous list averaged only 182 games.

Two players had more than 279 games at their position: Adam Everett and Austin Kearns. The fans considered them worse at their position than just UZR/150 would indicate. Neither player is a offensive power, and while two people is not a significant sample size at all, it would be interesting to see if or if not the player's offensive ability sways the FSR voters.

Conclusions

I happy with how close the results were and in the future I would like to incorporate the FSR into my data. I would probably need find an aging value also. Finally, as previously stated, I would like to see if the FSR is biased to towards offensive players getting better grades from the fans.

I enjoyed this endeavor with Steve and hopefully we can work on more projects in the future. I know that defensive statistics aren't close to an exact science, but with some more understanding a person may not end up in a heated discussion on Coco Crisp's defense.

Best All-Time Interpolated Seasons for Hitters

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:36:21 -0000

Joe Mauer had a great season, even though he missing a few games. He got me thinking of which players had great seasons going, but were cut short by injury or a shorter season. I decided to ignore regression (I wanted to name the article "F___ Regression," but I don't think it would have flown too far) and project all players with greater than 100 PA as if they had 700 PA. Using Rally's WAR database, here are the top 21 seasons of all time if all the hitters had 700 PA.

Rank	Name	WAR700	Year	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	15.3	1872	5.2	238
2	Ross Barnes	15.1	1876	7.4	342
3	Babe Ruth	14.8	1920	12.9	610
4	Babe Ruth	14.8	1923	14.7	696
5	Rogers Hornsby	14.5	1924	13	627
6	Babe Ruth	14.2	1921	14	689
7	Barry Bonds	14.1	2004	12.4	614
8	Mickey Mantle	14.1	1957	12.5	620
9	Ted Williams	14.0	1953	2.2	110
10	Barry Bonds	14.0	2002	12.2	610
11	Mickey Mantle	14.0	1956	12.9	647
12	Babe Ruth	13.8	1919	10.6	539
13	Fred Dunlap	13.5	1884	9.2	478
14	Gates Brown	13.5	1968	2	104
15	Ty Cobb	13.4	1910	11	574
16	Jeff Bagwell	13.3	1994	8.9	469
17	Joe Morgan	13.3	1975	12	633
18	Babe Ruth	13.2	1927	12.8	677
19	George Brett	13.2	1980	9.6	508
20	Barry Bonds	13.2	2001	12.5	662
21	Walter Johnson	13.2	1925	1.9	101

Notes from the data:

I went with 21 because I was amazed that Walter Johnson's name showed up. Here is his line from that 1925 season

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
1925	37	WSH	36	107	97	12	42	6	1	2	20	3	6	.433	.455	.577	1.033	163

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Ross Barnes was a member of the "All Roscoe Team."
I expected more players with fewer than 300 PA to make list. Instead, only four did.
Babe Ruth's 1923 season is pretty amazing, in that he accumulated almost all the WAR himself and his value is barely projected.

Besides an over all list here are the top 5 players in each of the 50 PA intervals above 100:

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Cal Ripken	1991	10.9	11.0	708
2	Jimmie Foxx	1932	10.7	10.7	701
3	Willie Mays	1962	10.6	10.6	703
4	Hank Aaron	1963	9.9	10.0	709
5	Stan Musial	1946	9.8	9.8	700

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Babe Ruth	1923	14.8	14.7	696
2	Babe Ruth	1921	14.2	14.0	689
3	Babe Ruth	1927	13.2	12.8	677
4	Barry Bonds	2001	13.2	12.5	662
5	Ty Cobb	1917	12.8	11.9	653

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Babe Ruth	1920	14.8	12.9	610
2	Rogers Hornsby	1924	14.5	13.0	627
3	Barry Bonds	2004	14.1	12.4	614
4	Mickey Mantle	1957	14.1	12.5	620
5	Barry Bonds	2002	14.0	12.2	610

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ty Cobb	1910	13.4	11.0	574
2	Honus Wagner	1907	12.4	10.0	566
3	Honus Wagner	1906	12.0	10.0	584
4	Joe Morgan	1976	11.9	10.0	587
5	Rogers Hornsby	1925	11.9	10.0	589

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Babe Ruth	1919	13.8	10.6	539
2	George Brett	1980	13.2	9.6	508
3	Barry Bonds	2003	13.2	10.3	548
4	Roger Connor	1885	13.1	9.5	506
5	Ted Williams	1957	12.7	9.9	544

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Fred Dunlap	1884	13.5	9.2	478
2	Jeff Bagwell	1994	13.3	8.9	469
3	Ty Cobb	1918	10.9	7.2	464
4	Dave Orr	1884	10.7	7.1	464
5	Ezra Sutton	1884	10.7	7.6	497

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Mike Schmidt	1981	12.3	7.6	431
2	Ross Barnes	1875	11.7	6.7	400
3	Andre Dawson	1981	11.7	7.3	436
4	Ted Williams	1955	11.4	6.7	413
5	Buddy Bell	1981	10.7	6.2	405


Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Cap Anson	1881	12.1	6.4	369
2	Babe Ruth	1918	11.5	6.2	377
3	Dan Brouthers	1882	11.1	5.9	372
4	Bobby Grich	1981	10.4	5.9	396
5	Cal McVey	1875	10.2	5.7	390


Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	1876	15.1	7.4	342
2	Ross Barnes	1873	10.7	5.2	340
3	Joe DiMaggio	1949	10.6	5.0	329
4	George Gore	1880	10.6	5.2	343
5	Pete Browning	1882	10.3	4.6	314

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	George Wright	1872	10.6	3.9	258
2	Solly Hemus	1954	10.2	4.0	274
3	Charlie Bennett	1888	9.6	4.0	291
4	Orator Shaffer	1878	9.5	3.8	279
5	Charlie Bennett	1886	9.4	3.8	283

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	1872	15.3	5.2	238
2	Mickey Mantle	1963	10.9	3.3	212
3	Willie McCovey	1959	9.6	3.0	218
4	Carlton Fisk	1974	9.5	2.9	213
5	Buck Herzog	1908	9.3	2.7	203

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ross Barnes	1871	11.9	2.9	170
2	Nig Clarke	1906	11.6	3.2	193
3	Jack Lapp	1911	10.6	2.9	191
4	George Uhle	1923	10.2	2.2	151
5	Greg Goossen	1969	9.9	2.2	156

Rank	Name	Year	WAR700	WAR	PA
1	Ted Williams	1953	14.0	2.2	110
2	Gates Brown	1968	13.5	2.0	104
3	Walter Johnson	1925	13.2	1.9	101
4	Don Newcombe	1955	13.0	2.3	124
5	Babe Ruth	1915	12.5	1.8	101

Best 4 minutes and 31 seconds on the internet.

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:08:12 -0000

Dock Ellis & The LSD No-No from NoMasTV

Best 4 minutes and 31 seconds on the internet.

2010 Fan Projections

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:03:36 -0000

2010 Fan Projections

Fangraphs is implementing a fan based projection system for 2010. Once a set number of ballots are cast (I think ~30), the projections will begin appearing on the player pages.

Which of these blogs is doing its own thing?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 04:02:59 -0000

Which of these blogs is doing its own thing?

Thanks for the Stories

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 03:15:11 -0000

As a writer (very loose term there), I find there are certain topics and people that I can easily fall back on because there is plenty of material and interest in them. I would like to thank the following people and topics for making my job (another term used loosely) easier:

Miguel Olivo
Zack Greinke
Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter's Defense
Yankee's Payroll
Umpires
Omar Minaya
Steve Phillips
Dayton Moore
Dusty Baker
Bud Selig
Mets' Training Staff
Adam Dunn
Trading Roy Halladay
Joe Morgan
Jeff Francoeur
Milton Bradley's OBP/Temper
The designated hitter

I am sure there are a few candidates I missed, but just keeping up with the above list will keep me writing for a while.

Jeremy Affeldt - The MVP Canidate We Let Get Away

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:13:30 -0000

Jeremy Affeldt - The MVP Canidate We Let Get Away

10th best player in the NL last season? I have been messed up a few times in my life, but damn that must have been some heavy shit.

Projected WAR and Contract Values for Free Agent Position Players

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 05:17:06 -0000

Combining a couple of my previous article on UZR projections (now updated with UZR/150 values) and the wOBA to WAR conversion, I have created a spreadsheet to project 2010 WAR values of most FA hitters and determine how much money should be spent for the player's production for a multi-year contract.

Here are the 20 top projected free agent position players:

Rank	Name	2010 Projected WAR	Position	UZR/150	OBP	SLG	PA
1	Matt Holliday	4.7	LF	5	0.376	0.510	646
2	Chone Figgins	3.0	3B	7	0.375	0.367	603
3	Adrian Beltre	2.9	3B	10	0.322	0.448	544
4	Joe Crede	2.6	3B	13	0.317	0.439	410
5	Troy Glaus	2.4	3B	2	0.351	0.436	461
6	Marco Scutaro	2.4	SS	1	0.362	0.376	511
7	Placido Polanco	2.3	2B	6	0.338	0.398	594
8	Jason Bay	2.3	LF	-10	0.367	0.486	622
9	Miguel Tejada	2.1	SS	-4	0.330	0.430	603
10	Mike Cameron	2.0	CF	5	0.321	0.420	582
11	Marlon Byrd	1.9	CF	0	0.335	0.433	513

13	Johnny Damon	1.8	LF	0	0.355	0.430	597
14	Felipe Lopez	1.7	2B	2	0.342	0.377	628
15	Nick Johnson	1.7	1B	-1	0.395	0.407	552
16	Mark DeRosa	1.7	3B	-1	0.335	0.416	543
17	Bengie Molina	1.6	C	0	0.288	0.421	486
18	Orlando Cabrera	1.5	SS	1	0.326	0.374	631
19	Coco Crisp	1.5	CF	3	0.342	0.386	430
20	Miguel Olivo	1.4	C	0	0.276	0.433	416

Instructions and assumption on using the spreadsheet after the jump.

Assumptions/Instructions

UZR/150 values were used.
Projected hitting values are from Chone's projected batting values. I didn't need to have BA included, but I kept it there to make the cut and paste easier from Chones projections page.
To calculate the the wOBA, I used (1.66 * OBA + SLG)/3 = wOBA where the 1.66 from determining what multiple helped to predict the wOBA best for all qualified 2009 hitters.
I used 4.4 million dollars per WAR as the rate to paid for all years the player signs. The user can feel free to change these values to what ever value they want.
Each player was projected to age by 0.5 WAR per year not matter what their age is currently. Most are over the age of 31, so I don't see this as a problem. If the user want to change these values in the cells, feel free.
To get the ideal contract value for the projected WAR, goto column Y on the spreadsheet. Columns Y, Z and AA are the values projected for a 1 year contract in 2009 using the above assumptions. These values continure for up to eight years. For example, a 6 year contract for Matt Holliday would be worth 90.4 millions dollars according to the methods I used in the spreadsheet.
Players can be added and values changed as the user see fit.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments.