We're probably not going to learn anything new about this deal today so it's time to talk about something else for a little while in order to avoid all the cabin fever. Word has it that the Red Sox and Mike Cameron have tentatively agreed on a two-year deal worth around $15m or so. Cammy will receive regular playing time, and as a second-tier acquisition, budget room remains for Boston to make a move for Adrian Beltre should the Mike Lowell situation get cleared up.

If you take a team, and you hate that team, and then that team loads up on players you love, do you hate the team less?

I would've thought so, but faced with the reality of the situation, it feels more like the team is just nailing the snot out of ex-girlfriends you wish you'd never let get away.

Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre are two of my favorite players of all time. God damn you, Boston, for tainting at least one of them, and quite probably tainting them both. I don't deserve this, and I hope you burn for it.

Note: if Happ and/or Blanton are involved, and they're coming here, then that would change things, but I'm not going to speculate any more than I have to.

So, we can't yet be sure what we're going to be giving up here, but that doesn't mean we can't make some educated guesses and speculate.

The big key, for me, is Michael Saunders. I've made no secret of how much I like Saunders, and how I think he compares pretty favorably to a guy like Randy Winn. Despite his initial Major League flop, Saunders is an athletic 23 year old corner outfielder who runs well, plays easy defense, has a solid idea of the strike zone, and who hits for reasonable power from the left side of the plate. Like Winn, he doesn't excel at any one thing, but he earns good marks pretty much across the board, making him a smart gamble with medium upside. Being that he's under team control for six years, Saunders is a greatly underrated asset, and I would really hate to lose him here. Cliff Lee is awesome, but I'd have a tough time stomaching the sacrifice of six years of Saunders for (probably) one of Lee when the team still isn't that strong.

After Saunders, though...honestly, if you remove Saunders from the equation, it's hard to come up with a package that I wouldn't like. Brandon Morrow would be a loss, but he doesn't have the same team control duration as Saunders, and he's way less dependable. Morrow didn't make any progress last year, he has yet to show any ability to stick as a starter, and his secondary stuff hasn't developed from where it was when he was drafted. Morrow's been blessed with incredible talent, but he hasn't built on it, which makes him easier to lose.

And then you end up talking about minor leaguers, Phillippe Aumont's being the most recognizable name. But, at least as a Mariner, Aumont's in the bullpen. Relievers simply aren't very valuable unless they develop into the best of the best, and the odds are against that happening. While Aumont has great stuff and should make the Majors, it's questionable whether he ever gains the command to reach the upper level. Then you've got guys like Juan Ramirez, a solid but by no means can't-miss starter in high-A, and Tyson Gillies, a slap-hitting speedy outfielder with low upside...these are nice prospects to have, but they're not the sort of prospects you freak out over when you have the opportunity to land a Cliff Lee. Carlos Triunfel would kind of suck to lose, but I don't think he'd be moved after a lost season.

I don't know what the Mariners are going to surrender in this deal. There are plenty of rumors circling around, but no confirmation. With that said, as long as Michael Saunders isn't involved - and I'm guessing that he isn't - I think I'm going to be thrilled. It's weird for a team in Seattle's situation to go after a potential one-year star like Cliff Lee, but when you don't actually have to lose that much of significant value, you seize the chance without a second thought. Let this be a lesson to those of you who thought our front office was too concerned with efficiency to land a big name - Jack Zduriencik is one ballsy son of a bitch.

Roy Halladay looks like he hasn't heard yet.

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Also, sex appeal.

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Right now, signs seem to be that the Mariners will be receiving Cliff Lee in this three-way trade. It is not yet official, as Roy Halladay still has to okay a contract extension with the Phillies, but many consider that nothing but a formality, so I'm pretty comfortable with the feeling that this is a done deal. As such (and with the understanding that, yeah, this could all still blow up):

• Over the last two years, Lee has thrown 495.1 innings over 70 starts, postseason included. His ERA over that span is under three, his FIP is under three, his xFIP is well under four, and his tRA is well under four. While he's not likely to sustain his low rate of home runs, this isn't one of those situations where regression turns a seemingly good pitcher into a disappointing one - even allowing for some statistical normalcy, Lee still comes out looking aces. He is the definition of a workhorse, and though he's not young, the worst injury he's ever had is a hernia, so there are few better bets for 2010. No single pitcher is a guarantee, but Lee's about as close as you're going to get. And we don't even need to worry about a league adjustment.


• Lee succeeds in the same way that Ben Sheets used to succeed - by just throwing strikes over and over with sufficiently good stuff to maintain a solid strikeout rate. He doesn't miss a ton of bats - his contact rate is actually below-average - but he's consistently ahead in the count, which puts him at a significant advantage. In a way, he and Felix take remarkably different paths towards a similar end result, and it'll be all kinds of fun to watch them BACK TO BACK OH MY GOD


• OH MY GOD


• It's important not to pay too much attention to early reports of what the Mariners are giving up, here. There are a ton of names floating around and, without confirmation, we're essentially left guessing. But while everyone's nervous about how much we're losing, remember that Lee didn't bring back an amazing haul from Philly last July, and now he only has a year left on his contract. Pitchers with a year left generally don't get jaw-dropping returns, no matter how good they are. Johan Santana only got Carlos Gomez and some pieces, and Santana even negotiated a long-term contract. We will lose some real talented young players, but barring complete surprise, this is not a trade that's going to gut the system, because good executives don't gut the system for a guy on a one-year deal.


• It's also important to remember, as Graham has pointed out, that Cliff Lee's a virtual lock to be a Type A free agent next winter. Which means we can either sign him to an extension, trade him midseason, or let him walk and collect a pair of draft picks. Even though he's set to be a free agent, it is highly unlikely that he only makes a one-year impact.


• That Lee is a free agent next winter is, of course, a big concern, since the Mariners are good but by no means league favorites. The odds right now are against his remaining here for a while. He's only set to make $9m in 2010, and he's going to want his payday. That said, letting him pitch in this ballpark with this defense...I don't think Lee's going to be granting anyone any kind of discount, but if the Mariners can convince him that this is as perfect a situation as any, they could lock him up before next fall. If they want to. He's a lefty in a big stadium with an amazing group of gloves and a front office that's moving the organization in the right direction. Seattle's a great place for a guy like Lee.


• Remember when Daisuke Matsuzaka was making his home debut and Felix stole the spotlight by throwing a one-hitter? The Red Sox signed John Lackey this morning. Anyone notice? Suck it Boston.


• It took something like two months for those damn Erik Bedard rumors to come to fruition. I woke up this morning thinking about Ian Snell and hours later we're a Roy Halladay signature away from grabbing Cliff Lee out of the blue. Jack Zduriencik is a magician. Rumors fly around all the time, but who had him getting Lee? Or Figgins? Or Gutierrez? It can be aggravating to follow a team with a front office this quiet, but it can also be the most exhilarating thing in the world.


• The Angels lost Chone Figgins, they lost John Lackey, they missed out on Roy Halladay, they missed out on Cliff Lee, and if the Red Sox finish this Mike Lowell deal, they'll probably miss out on Adrian Beltre. They did manage to land Hideki Matsui, but that's by no means a high-impact addition. If you thought it was frustrating to miss Rich Harden, imagine how Tony Reagins must feel.
  


• Cliff Lee does not, on his own, make us a great team. He just adds a handful of wins. I know it's no fun to look at things this way, since everyone wants to daydream about the Felix/Lee 1-2 punch leading us to the Series, but it is something we all have to keep in mind. That said, this division - once again - lacks a strong frontrunner, so these added wins are huge. And Z isn't done. Because Lee only costs $9m this year, we still have at least $10m or so to address other needs, and there exists the possibility that ownership could be convinced to spend even more.
  


• This can't be for real.


• You know who's going to be really excited about this? Felix. That couldn't hurt.


• Ian Snell walked more batters in 145 innings last year than Cliff Lee has walked in his last 489.

Uh.

Source.

I'm going to go ahead and think about this one for a little while.

Good gravy. My hands are shaking in the same way they were back when we trade for Vidro, only this time I think they're excited.

Update: I don't know what this means but Heyman seems to be backtracking just a little bit.

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Update #2: Heyman's words:

The Phillies are in agreement on a three-team trade with the Mariners and Blue Jays to acquire star pitcher Roy Halladay, SI.com has learned.

So, we're involved. We just don't know for sure who we're getting. Probably Cliff Lee, but it's no guarantee.

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I've been waiting so long to use this picture

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For some reason I find this Tweet to be more trustworthy because it's in Spanish.

Eliézer Alfonzo firmó con los Marineros un contrato de ligas menores con invitación al campo de entrenamientos.

...meaning, the Mariners have signed Eliezer Alfonzo to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Alfonzo turns 31 in February. Problem solved!

I'm not going to pretend to have any kind of real insight here. Alfonzo's just a guy who could have a chance for a little while should the M's deem Adam Moore in need of some more AAA seasoning. But if you're really curious what Alfonzo's all about, among 432 hitters to take at least 100 trips to the plate last season, Alfonzo had the highest rate of swings at balls out of the zone, at 53.4%. In second was Vladimir Guerrero, at 44.1%. Alfonzo's O-Swing% was 21% worse than the second-worst O-Swing% in baseball. So that's neat. He'll be a good guy to send up to the plate if Felix is in a groove and we want to get him back out to the mound in a hurry.

Alfonzo, predictably, never walks, not even in the minors, but he does have a fair bit of power, which keeps him from being completely worthless. I'm guessing he also has an average arm, calls a good game, and develops positive relationships with Latin starting pitchers. So, there you go. Say hello to the imitation Froot Loops version of Miguel Olivo.

• Ed Price and now Ken Rosenthal are reporting that John Lackey has taken a physical for the Red Sox. Taking a physical doesn't mean that Lackey and Boston have agreed on a contract, but it does strongly imply that they're close, which would mean a handful of things:
  
  -Boston's moving on from Jason Bay
  -Lackey would be off the table for us and the Angels
  -Clay Buchholz could be available in a trade
  
  
  Lackey going to Boston wouldn't be the worst thing in the world - even though the Red Sox are one of two teams that could absorb his contract no problem, he's not a great fit here at his expected cost. What this would do, however, is change the shape of the offseason, for both us and our closest rivals. We'd end up with one less high-level option, and the Angels would probably step up their pursuit of Roy Halladay. To be honest, now that Harden's off the board, I have no idea what the front office is planning. He seemed like such a great fit that I gave little attention to devising a Plan B. But with him disappearing and Lackey maybe being next, Zduriencik is going to have to get creative. That's fun, but I'd be lying if I said it isn't also a little scary. Almost as scary as paying John Lackey what he wants.
  
  Update: $85m/5yr for Lackey


• There's a rumor flying around that Mike Lowell could need surgery on his trick thumb, which would jeopardize that trade with the Rangers that still hasn't gone through. It seems like kind of a long shot, but given that Lowell going away frees obvious room for Adrian Beltre to become a Red Sox, I'm clinging to far more hope than I ought to. When my first serious girlfriend broke up with me, I spent the next several days reading far too much into any indication that she might change her mind. This is that, because I steadfastly refuse to learn my lesson. Adrian Beltre isn't gone until he's dating someone else, god dammit.


• After talking with a few people last week and gaining a great deal of clarity on the matter, I feel very, very comfortable that the M's and Felix Hernandez are going to be able to work something out.

Non-baseball post.

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I'm back. Yay. Stupid Harden.

So Ryan Langerhans was non-tendered today, opening up a 40-man spot and making him a free agent. As a free agent, he's free to negotiate with anyone, including the Mariners, but there's not a lot of playing time around here to be had, making his return a slim possibility. Langerhans is almost 30 years old. If he wants to have any kind of Major League job security, he's going to need to go somewhere that can promise him a little more action. I don't know if he'll find that opportunity, mind you, but the Mariners certainly can't provide it. So.

For those who understand the kind of value Langerhans can provide off the bench, this is a bit of an unfortunate move, but it essentially became a necessary one when Griffey re-signed. With Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro locked into the starting spots and Bill Hall available as the utility guy, Langerhans was already in a bind, but assuming a 12-man pitching staff, Griffey took away the last possible roster spot. The M's could've opted to cut Hall, of course, but given Hall's additional flexibility, handedness, potential to rebound, and the fact that dropping Langerhans is free, it wasn't a difficult decision. Langerhans ended up a neat player on the wrong team.

While there is obviously a number of different factors in play here, it is kind of sad to know that Langerhans was non-tendered by the one organization most likely to see him for all of his value. This front office - a front office that's become synonymous with run prevention - got him for a reason, and even with everything else, it can't be a good sign that even they couldn't find him a role. But then, Langerhans has received significant big league playing time in each of the last five seasons, so it's not like he won't find a job. This is just one of those depressing things that's going to make him anxious every night when he goes to bed until he gets a contract.

Realistically, losing Ryan Langerhans barely hurts us, as he's not a great player. It's always been more about what Langerhans represents than who he is specifically. That said, the day of his acquisition went to show how far this organization has come in such a short time, so his non-tender is most definitely a bittersweet occasion. For all of his faults, most of us liked Ryan Langerhans, and are sad to see him go. But if nothing else, it was because of Ryan that I found myself one August night standing in the middle of a bar hugging like five other dudes, and I will always cherish that memory. Best of luck to you going forward, Ryan. Your walkoffs were awesome. Yours will forever be the jersey I most wanted to have but couldn't bring myself to buy.

The agent.

On Gary Matthews Jr.:

"They know where we stand," Matthews' agent, Scott Leventhal, told FOXSports.com. "Gary wants to play every day, and he wants to play center field."

"He's still got an amazing amount of talent," Leventhal said.

On Jacque Jones:

"I think any team will be impressed to sit across from Jacque Jones and reach out and shake his hand," Lapa said. "He looks as if he took his uniform off two weeks ago -- probably the best that I've seen him look. He has a lot of baseball left in his body, and he's looking for a team, hoping to make them look like geniuses."

On Rich Harden:

Tellem added that Harden, who has a history of shoulder problems, is healthy. "He’s fine," the agent said. "If the team had been in the race, he would have been pitching (at the end of the season). No health issues at all."

If a sportswriter is going to quote a player's agent in a story, then in the interest of being fair, he should also have to quote a guy whose wife the player hit on.