SB Nation User Blog: Jeff

Points Of Contention: Jack Wilson's Offense

Jeff — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 01:56:16 -0000

When the Mariners traded for Jack Wilson, we knew it a move fueled by defense. The front office and coaching staff made no secret of that. Wilson brought a glove, an excellent glove capable of making up for a lackluster bat, and this was okay, because we knew that he'd be able to field while remaining something above a black hole at the plate.

However, over the span of the next six weeks, Wilson would collect 116 plate appearances as a Mariner, and over those 116 plate appearances, he would hit just .224 with a .562 OPS. While no one expected Wilson to light it up, this was beyond terrible. This was a Ronny Cedeno level of bad, and in part because the whole Cedeno experience was still fresh in our minds, there developed this sentiment that Wilson's an "NL hitter," that he's a guy who can sort of hold his own on the other side but who becomes completely overmatched against the superior AL competition. Cedeno was awful here and successful with Pittsburgh. Wilson, some people have claimed, is a player in the same kind of mold.

I find this claim to be dubious for three reasons:

(1) There's no such thing as an "AL hitter" or an "NL hitter." While the AL is the better league and has the better pitchers overall, it's not so lopsided that NL hitters come over and lose tons of points off their production. I identified 42 hitters who switched leagues either last offseason or during the year and who accumulated at least 100 PAs on both sides. Those 42 players averaged a .315 wOBA in the AL (not park-adjusted) and a .323 wOBA in the NL. Over a full season, that's a difference of about four runs. It seems significant, but it's not colossal. Jack Wilson may have struggled over here, but what about, I dunno, Jeremy Reed? What about Endy Chavez or Alex Cora? It's not an idea that makes a lot of sense when you think about it, and it's not an idea that holds up to much scrutiny.

(2) Jack Wilson has collected 470 PAs during interleague play over his career. In those 470 PAs, he's hit .301/.334/.420, and he's been good in each of the last three seasons.

(3) 116 plate appearances. That's all we saw from Wilson in the AL, and for many of them he was playing hurt. 116 plate appearances barely tell you anything. If Wilson had come over and sucked that bad for a whole year, that would be one thing. But he sucked for a handful of weeks. A 3/4/5 weighting of his most recent seasons yields an un-adjusted wOBA of .301, which isn't that bad for a defense-first shortstop.

Jack Wilson may be a baseball player in the National League style, but there's no good reason to believe that his bat will continue to be this bad as long as he plays for an AL team. There is an AL adjustment that docks him a few points, but what we saw from him was extreme, a performance towards the lower bound of his probability distribution. It isn't realistic to expect him to keep that up. He's proven over the years that, while he's not a great hitter, or a good one, or an average one, he's a below-average one, and not a disaster. That's the player we traded for, and that's the player we almost certainly still have.

How Seattle will affect Wilson's offense is, of course, a legitimate question. Not only did he switch leagues, but he also moved to a park that doesn't treat righties very kindly. That's going to be an adjustment. However, for one thing, Wilson's power, like Jose Lopez's, is down the line to left, so he won't get killed by that power alley, and for another, the bulk of Wilson's production comes from line drives instead of fly balls anyway, so Safeco shouldn't hurt him as bad as it has guys like Mike Cameron. Wilson sprays singles. A single is a single in any ballpark.

Jack Wilson isn't a sexy, impact type of player, and at 32 this December, he's not on the way up. However, as a regular shortstop who can turn a lot of balls into outs and make a lot of low-to-the-ground contact, we could do a lot worse. Assuming his offense hasn't completely collapsed and that he's something like a +10 defender, we should see him end up in the neighborhood of a 1.5 - 2.0 WAR, and that's going to help. That's going to help quite a bit.

2009 SBN AL Cy Young Voting Results

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:04:22 -0000

Damn you, Griffey, for making the audience wait to see this table of critically important information.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	C.C. Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

Looks about right. The top six arms in ERA, and the top six arms in FIP. I'm not certain that Felix deserved second over Verlander and Halladay, each of whom threw just as many innings with comparable results, but it's not second place that matters here. A real shame that Greinke's contract expires before Dayton Moore's does. A real shame.

Over 915 plate appearances, Greinke held opponents to a .269 wOBA. Zack Greinke vs. the Major Leagues was like an average pitcher vs. Robb Quinlan.

Faces

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:59:10 -0000

Brad Voyles looks like he spends a lot of late nights out on the town and he's getting pretty tired of always getting lectured about it when he comes home.

Rosenthal reports M's have talked to Jays about Lyle Overbay

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:15:36 -0000

Rosenthal reports M's have talked to Jays about Lyle Overbay

Overbay is both not very good and due $7m in 2010, so, with our salary situation, I wouldn't expect this to get much farther.

Zduriencik On Griffey Coming Back

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:41:41 -0000

Via Yahoo!:

"We believe that Ken’s presence with the Seattle Mariners organization was such a positive asset last season with his leadership on and off the field," general manager Jack Zduriencik said. "His passion for baseball, life and the Seattle Mariners goes unsaid. We are happy to have Ken back for the 2010 season."

When Z traded for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell, he talked about their skills.

When Z traded for Franklin Gutierrez and the rest of them, he talked about their skills.

When Z signed Russell Branyan, he talked about his skills.

When Z traded for David Aardsma, he talked about his skills.

When Z re-signed Griffey for 2010, he talked about his leadership and passion.

Let there be no doubt that this is all about the clubhouse.

Well This Can't Be Right

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:59:41 -0000

When the Padres hired Jed Hoyer, I was joking with a friend of mine that the Red Sox were working to get one of their guys into as many front offices as possible such that a few years from now Epstein could yell "ACTIVATE" and all of his splinter cells would work to turn Boston into a super team.

Turns out Boston wouldn't be the first team to try using a mole.

(via pictopia.com)

This has to be some kind of breach of contract.

What This Isn't & What This Is

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:50:03 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Wait - WAIT! NO STOP YOU'RE MAKING THIS AWKWARD

Browse more photos »

So by now you may have heard that Griffey's coming back. He had such a good time last season that he's agreed to accept a lesser role in exchange for the opportunity to do it all over again in 2010, and the contract he's getting - according to Jerry Crasnick - will again have a low base with a bunch of incentives. The more things change, and so forth.

What this isn't is a baseball move. Or at least, what this isn't is a baseball move intended to improve the team's chances of winning on paper. For one thing, Griffey's coming on as a bench player. Bench players seldom make any kind of significant difference. And for another, let's face it - Griffey isn't good. Not adjusting for park, he has a .330 wOBA over the last two seasons and a .336 wOBA over the last four, offensive performances turned in either as a DH or as a DH-level defender. He's totaled 0.3 WAR since 2006 and, due to the failures of science, he's only getting older. People will argue that there's upside here, that Griffey will hit better now that he's gotten his knee fixed up, but there's no reason to believe them. Griffey's only statistical upside is luck. In terms of true talent, he is essentially a replacement-level player.

What this is, then, is an acknowledgment on the front office's part of the effect of Griffey's presence. This is a pure chemistry move. There's no other way around it. The front office is smart enough to know that Griffey can't contribute much in the box scores anymore, so their decision to bring him back anyway shows that they believe he makes the team work better together just by being himself. Which, well, we can't prove one way or the other. The rational thing to do is to doubt the significance of any effect until it's proven, and with that in mind the return of Griffey is at best inefficient, but on the other hand it's really really hard to argue against anything that makes Ichiro smile so damn much. Throw in the fact that this can only help with the Felix negotiations and I can't bring myself to be that disappointed. Maybe it's because I figured this was going to happen all along. But I see enough potential justification for this move that I don't feel so bad about it.

Dave has already run down what this means for the roster. Things change if the team decides to carry a six-man bullpen (or if, y'know, trades), but for now I'd hold off on purchasing any Langerhans apparel. That sucks. Ryan Langerhans is awesome. But...hey, Griffey, all right. Now that this is out of the way, here's to the front office focusing on the moves that will actually make a big difference.

Tuesday Night Odds & Ends

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:53:03 -0000

A few things I missed over the afternoon...

Russell Branyan has rejected a one-year offer from the Mariners, a one-year offer that, via Larry Stone, included a 2011 option. Branyan says that, while he'd love to stay in Seattle, he's holding out for a multiyear deal that gives him some semblance of stability, a goal that makes a lot of sense when you consider that he and his wife just had another kid. He's tired of moving around.

I feel for him. Branyan's never deserved to be the nomad sort, and after a career year, this is as good a time as any for him to sell himself as more than a one-year solution. Unfortunately, though, Branyan's a guy who's never drawn a big offer, settling with the Mariners last winter for $1.4m/1yr, and while you'd think the 31 homers would bump up his value, those were largely offset by his back trouble, which threatens to linger for the rest of his days. If Branyan had stayed healthy all season, he'd probably be looking at at least, I dunno, $12m/2yr. But he missed a quarter of the team's games with his injury and at 34, with that back, 2+ years just isn't very likely.

I'd expect Branyan to re-sign with the Mariners. I wouldn't, however, expect him to return on a guaranteed multiyear deal. 2010 with a 2011 option that vests with a certain number of plate appearances is probably the best he'll be able to do.

From the same Pravda article, Jack Wilson has rejected the Mariners' initial multiyear offer. Anybody that listened to Jack and Tony talk after the Wilson acquisition knows that the organization absolutely loves him and would be delighted to have him stick around for another few years, but apparently it's going to take a little more than was offered. Which, hey, this is how negotiations work. The guy who goes in and proposes what he considers the most fair deal first is the guy who never gets a fair deal. I'd expect this one to end up somewhere around where Branyan would've wound up were it not for the bad back.

Shannon Drayer has a post up detailing a conversation she had with Alan Nero, Felix's agent. We've all been freaking out about the lack of communication between parties, but reading Nero's quotes is reassuring - he continues to emphasize that there's no hurry, and that there isn't any writing on the wall for the rest of us to interpret. The organization has assured Nero that it will put something together, and though Felix may prefer a little more of a hands-on approach, Felix has put his trust in his agent and has admitted as much, meaning the lack of dialogue so far may not actually hurt us at all.

These quotes from Nero and Zduriencik over the past few days have breathed new life into my optimism that something's going to get done. There's obviously a little more urgency here than Nero is going to let on, but with Felix's side being willing and Z sounding determined, this should be doable. Six years, and figure out the money. It really is as simple as that.

Faces

Jeff — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:44:50 -0000

Ryan Freel looks like Daniel Craig just got interrupted while reading a book.

2009 SBN AL Rookie Of The Year Voting Results

Jeff — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:27:55 -0000

I'm looking at this for the first time, just like you guys. Let's see what we've got.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

Among AL starters with at least 100 IP, Brett Anderson posted the 9th-best FIP at 3.69, between Josh Beckett and John Lackey and behind zero rookies. His K/BB was excellent, he made 30 starts, and he threw a solid 175.1 innings. Somehow this was good enough to get him on all of nine ballots, while Rick Porcello came out better despite pitching like a pile of crap. Democracy! Don't know how Niemann finished above him either, but I guess there are still people who love them some W/L and ERA.

Kudos to Andrus and Bailey for being awesome, Andrus at defense and Bailey at everything. Again, hey, Anderson, but there's nothing wrong with rewarding guys who were legitimately great at what they did. Andrus is going to be a pest, and God help us if he learns how to hit.

No love for Rob Johnson or the Jakubaustrich.