SB Nation User Blog: Jeff

Faces

Jeff — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 23:48:21 -0000

Matt Kinney looks like the innermost piece of a San Francisco nesting doll.

Ian Snell Is Really Different

Jeff — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 23:18:25 -0000

On the one hand, at least he's changing things up, I guess. A true one-two punch refers to blows delivered in rapid succession. Oftentimes an entire day will pass between baseball games, and sometimes the delay will be even longer. Unless we're talking about geological phenomena or biological evolution, 24 hours generally doesn't qualify as 'rapid'.

On the other hand,

"This is about as good as a right left punch can get. It gives me a boost of energy knowing that this is what the team is doing and that expectations are we will go further."

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This is a true right left punch straight to Hendu's old magician's basket.

Where The Mariners Stand As Of Right Now

Jeff — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:32:41 -0000

Most players aren't big additions. Cliff Lee's a little different. With the understanding that these are nothing more than educated approximations:

You can quibble with individual projections if you want to. I don't claim to hold the truth in my hands. But while one or seven of them may be off by a little bit, I think the overall picture is reasonably accurate, and the overall picture puts us around 85 wins. In other words, unless I'm way off, the Seattle Mariners right now are a mid-80s win team on true talent, and that's before accounting for whatever additional moves they make for a first baseman, a DH, and/or anything else. They do still have something like $10m(ish) to work with, assuming no sudden bump in payroll. Bring in, I dunno, Nick Johnson or re-sign Russell Branyan or whatever and all of a sudden we're getting dangerously close to 90. And who the hell knows what other aces Jack might have up his sleeve?

I don't know where the Angels or Rangers (or A's) stand in this regard, as I haven't done that analysis. But what I can tell you is that none of our divisional competition is much better than us, as Cliff Lee just made the M's better by several wins. By the end of the offseason, the Mariners very well may be considered the favorites to win the AL West. And I mean legitimate favorites.

Cliff Lee Is A Mariner Now, Everybody Relax

Jeff — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:57:35 -0000

As you've heard by now, the deal is finally official. I don't know if a "finally" is warranted, since this only took three days while the Erik Bedard trade a few years ago took seventeen months to complete, but this was such a winner from the beginning that the longer it dragged on, the more everyone couldn't help but get a little anxious. Alas, despite Bob Elliott's misdirection this morning, Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, and J.C. Ramirez are now officially Phillies, and Cliff Lee - Cliff freakin Lee - is now officially a Mariner.

What's funny about a trade like this is that, by the time it's done, there's nothing left to say, because everything's already been discussed in the days leading up. So, yeah. I guess you can consider this your thread to voice elation that is 100% anxiety-free, because there's nothing left to stop us. The Seattle Mariners have two of the most talented and durable starting pitchers in baseball.

I won't say this is my favorite move the M's have ever made, but it has to be the biggest.

State Of The Trade

Jeff — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:42:29 -0000

Still not official, still awesome.

Update: Unless Bob Elliott is right. Whoopsadoodle

Update #2: Larry Stone has assured us that everything is fine

Update #3: Official! Cliff Lee is now a member of the Seattle Mariners organization, while Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, and JC Ramirez are not. We rock.

A Friendly Reminder

Jeff — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 23:25:10 -0000

Despite the widespread enthusiasm over the impending Cliff Lee acquisition, there remains some degree of concern that, while the Mariners are improving their run prevention, what they really need is offense, and that they won't be able to win if they don't score many runs.

I would like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that, for all intents and purposes, a run saved is equal to a run scored. There are small differences, but they're essentially negligible. It's really quite simple to understand. Using the standard Pythagorean W/L equation:

A team that scores 700 runs and allows 700 runs will be expected to win 50% of its games
A team that scores 710 runs and allows 700 runs will be expected to win 50.6% of its games
A team that scores 700 runs and allows 690 runs will be expected to win 50.7% of its games

Cliff Lee represents a monumental upgrade to our starting rotation. If you call him a six-win pitcher, and his addition results in the bouncing of, say, a one-win pitcher from the rotation, then that would be a ~five-win upgrade in the same way that going from Jack Wilson to one year of Hanley Ramirez would be a ~five-win upgrade. It's not meaningfully different. They're both very different paths towards improving the team, but they're equally valid, and they lead to a very similar end result.

As a fan, it can be a lot of fun to break things down and evaluate teams by their different components. But when you're evaluating a transaction, you have to look at the bigger picture. It's not about what helps the offense, or the defense, or the pitching, or the clubhouse. It's about what helps the team overall. And while Cliff Lee isn't coming here to swing a bat, he still makes the Mariners way way better than they were last week.

Look, I get it. Even with Chone Figgins, this offense isn't great, and it could use some help. I imagine Z's going to want to address that over the coming weeks. Just don't let that uncertainty get into your head and take away some of the thrill from a move that is 100%, absolutely fantastic.

Faces

Jeff — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:37:39 -0000

Gary Knotts looks like a wallflower that just got asked to smile for the yearbook.

Pitman Twitter

Jeff — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:48:52 -0000

Pitman Twitter

Well I was wrong. Seems Zduriencik wants Langerhans back and intends to sign him shortly. I assume that would be to a minor league contract with an ST invite.

State Of The Trade

Jeff — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:12:33 -0000

Still no official confirmation, but at this point, it seems the return is almost certainly going to be Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez. That's the package that's being reported. Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez means no Saunders, Morrow, or Triunfel, and no Saunders, Morrow, or Triunfel means that we win. Gloating is unbecoming, but so is false modesty, so with that in mind, ha ha, baseball, we're better than you. There is no way to spin this as a bad trade for the Mariners. No way. Even if you think they have a long way to go before they're legitimate World Series contenders, they just took a significant step forward, and all it cost them was a reliever, a probable reliever, and a deafer Tom Goodwin. All three are quality prospects who could end up having long Major League careers, but these aren't high-end guys - they're replaceable ones, and they brought us a year of one of the best pitchers in baseball. Jack Zduriencik is so far ahead of the world that I think he's the cat from Early Edition.

Despite all the excitement, though, those of you hoping the trade will be finalized today are probably going to be disappointed, as most reports have tomorrow as being more likely. Halladay and the Phillies appear to have agreed on an extension, but Halladay still needs to take a physical, and at this level of complexity, there's a lot of paperwork that needs to be filled out and turned in. So that little shred of anxiety that everything's going to fall apart at the last second isn't going away just yet. Still, at this point it would take something unthinkable to blow this deal apart, and in that event we're going to have bigger things to worry about than baseball anyway, like how to build and launch a new sun really really fast.

Okay Fine Here's Your Cliff Lee Thread Until Tomorrow

Jeff — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:47:08 -0000

Says Ken Rosenthal:

#Phils getting $6M from #Jays in Halladay deal. Drabek, Taylor, likely D'Arnaud to TOR, Aumont, Gillies and 3rd player to PHI...

This is, of course, just another rumor, but it's the latest rumor and also comes from as credible a source as you're going to find at the moment, so go nuts.