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You know what I haven't tried in a while? Origami.

With Michael Young and John McLaren both gone from the game I'm pretty much out of material.

I was planning to come home and talk about how already the losing has gotten to the point at which it's funny and no longer bothersome, but then I sat down, looked at my computer, and realized that I still have a lingering shred of hope tucked away somewhere in my brain that's yet to be destroyed, a shred that has thus far effectively hidden itself from the swarming hordes of crushing indifference. But I'm sure that shred will be taken care of in a timely fashion. Kind of like Anne Frank.

So you see why I wasn't ready to call last night a turning point, then.

What with SBN having scheduled downtime coming up in a little bit, I'm just going to take this opportunity to re-post (a slightly edited version of) what I wrote on Sunday afternoon, since (A) it's still applicable, and (B) no one saw it the first time since we got hacked like 20 minutes after I put it up. You'll notice that a line or two looks pretty much identical to what I put up last night but whatever I'm allowed to go back to that well if I want. And away we go.

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The season isn't over.

The season isn't over, and you shouldn't pay any attention to the people claiming otherwise, because they're overreacting. As bad as things have been, and as big as this hole has gotten, it's still the first week of May, and there's time to right the ship. Look at the standings a year ago today and the Rockies, Yankees, and Phillies were all sucking pretty hard. Not this hard, mind you, but what I'm trying to say is that we haven't reached the point at which it's time to give up.

But we're close. Closer than even the most pessimistic of Mariner fans would've thought we'd be this early. After 34 games, this team is tied with the Rangers and Tigers for the worst record in the American League. The worst. Worse than the Royals. Worse than the Orioles. Worse than the White Sox. Worse than everyone but the Rangers and Tigers, with whom we're tied. They're 7.5 back of the Angels and 6.5 back of the A's, and no matter what you thought of the M's playoff chances back in March, now they're down in the single digits. Thanks to a horrible first five weeks, the Mariners have made their season about five times more difficult. That's not really the start you're looking for when you've invested so much in winning right now.

No longer is this about simply being better than the Angels and the A's (who I definitely didn't see coming). Now this is about being significantly better than the Angels and the A's. Dave already outlined it here. Five months seems like a long time, but making up the ground the M's have lost will require that either they play really well, or their competition doesn't. And that would require that things turn around pretty much right now. The Mariners just can't afford to waste any more opportunities. They can't pull stupid stunts like getting owned by Baltimore - who blows - or getting swept in the Bronx by a mediocre team when they've got their top three starters on the mound. Things like that are inexcusable. It's stupid to say "good teams don't lose to Darrell Rasner Sidney Ponson" because shit happens and even the best teams go slumming from time to time, but when it becomes a pattern, that's a problem. This team has problems. And they need to be fixed as soon as possible, else everything the front office worked for be wasted effort by June.

For the next two weeks, the Mariners will play 11 more games against the Rangers, White Sox, and Padres, one average team and two cellar-dwellers. It's an easier stretch of schedule than those of the Angels and A's, and if the M's play well, they can jump right back into the thick of things in the division. The opportunity is there.

They just need to seize it. Because the alternative sucks.

God damn this team.

Biggest Contribution: Jose Lopez, +6.1%
Biggest Suckfest: Miguel Batista, -31.8%
Most Important AB: Lopez single, +6.2%
Most Important Pitch: Murphy homer, -8.9%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): -39.5%
Total Contribution by Hitters: -10.5%
Total Contribution by Opposition: 0.0%
(What is this chart?)

Continue reading this post »

END

END!!

Team Defense Watch

After 33 games, the Mariners have turned 12 fewer balls in play into outs than expected. This ranks them as having been the second-worst defense in the American League. The worst? Texas, at -20. The Rangers are complimenting a below-average pitching staff with an average infield and a below-average outfield, generating all of the results you'd expect and none of the ones that you wouldn't. Only making things worse is the fact that the pitchers have a collective K/9 of 4.7, meaning that not only is the defense bad, but it also has to deal with a non-stop barrage of balls off the bat. I guess this is one way to keep Josh Hamilton busy and out of trouble.

By the way, I might've been too quick to call Miguel Batista a liar. Ever since he "figured something out," he's put up a staggering swinging strike rate of 23% 16% (three starts), versus 13% a year ago and just 9% over his first four starts of 2008. Whether this actually means something has yet to be determined, but it's absolutely something to watch going forward. Swinging strikes are awesome.

LET'S GO MARINERS!!

I won't tell you this is a turning point. There are no turning points; at least, not turning points you can identify at the time. The only turning points that exist exist in hindsight.

I won't tell you this is the day the offense jelled. Those things don't happen overnight. One could argue they never really happen at all. We have the same issues to deal with now as we did yesterday afternoon.

I won't tell you that Wladimir Balentien just arrived. Major League adjustment is a dimmer, not a light switch. He will have a lot of good at bats going forward, but he will also have a lot of bad ones.

And I won't tell you that the Mariners are ready to get back in the hunt. This is a deep hole they've dug for themselves, one that'll take a sustained effort to escape, and they could very easily fall flat on their faces again tomorrow.

What I will tell you is that, coming off a miserable road trip, this was the biggest win of the year. They just couldn't afford to keep losing. They couldn't. Entering the day, the Mariners stood at 6.5 games back of the Angels and 5.5 games back of the A's. If you figured them for a 35-45% chance at the postseason last March, this morning they were down to a mere fraction of that, having blown opportunities to keep afloat by losing to a terrible Orioles team and getting swept in the Bronx. Simply put, they were almost out of chances. They needed to start winning the games they were supposed to win, because the alternative was a toboggan ride to four long months of meaningless baseball.

Tonight, they won.

Maybe this gets things turned around. Maybe it doesn't. But every team that pulls itself out of a slump has to win a first game, and that little glimmer of hope is the best we could've asked for tonight. May this be the first stage of Operation Season Rescue.

Biggest Contribution: Jose Lopez, +13.9%
Biggest Suckfest: Adrian Beltre, -4.4%
Most Important AB: Ibanez double, +11.5%
Most Important Pitch: Boggs strikeout, +3.3%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +18.0%
Total Contribution by Hitters: +32.0%
Total Contribution by Opposition: 0.0%
(What is this chart?)

Continue reading this post »

Also, House.

Matthew's addition:

THE MARINERS WIN THE PENNANT

THE MARINERS WIN THE PENNANT

THE MARINERS WIN THE PENNANT

Lineup feature isn't working today sooooooooo

Ichiro
Lopez
Ibanez
Beltre
Sexson
Clement
Betancourt
Johjima
Balentien

Kinsler
Laird
Young
Bradley
Murphy
Boggs (no, I already checked)
Shelton
Saltalamacchia
Duran

LET'S GO MARINERS!!

A quick hit-and-run post during the intermission between the third and fourth overtime periods in Dallas:

Carlos Silva has basically been the exact same pitcher in 2008 as he was in 2007, give or take a few minor little things. He's been throwing the same pitches, he's been throwing about the same speed, and he's been getting the same results. And while he definitely got a few bad breaks this afternoon, you'd be hard-pressed to find a luckier ERA than Silva's 2.79 through his first six starts. It was completely unwarranted, and while it fooled a few people into believing that he'd become a new pitcher, it was the same trick Washburn pulled a year ago, when his ERA stood at 2.64 on May 11th. And we know how that one turned out.

Carlos Silva isn't horrible. He could easily become horrible if he loses even a fraction of his command, but for now he's an innings-eater with ~average run prevention abilities, and despite what some people might've had you believe, he's not going to be anything more than that. Today was a pretty good reminder.The goods are all right, but the bads can be pretty damn ugly.

Regression, as they say, is swift.

Update: the restoration process from the backups is ongoing but unlikely to be completed tonight.

My Google account was hacked around 5pm this afternoon, giving someone access to my LL account and thereby causing lots of mass bans and deletions. We're currently dealing with this to the best of our abilities but bear with us in the meantime.

(The previous thread has been deleted because let's face it, that wasn't very smart of me.)