SBNation.com User Blog: Jeremy Kidd

Despite the possibility of reaching a BCS bowl, pretty much everyone knew the Poinsettia Bowl would be BYU's final resting place for the season. The real mystery was the opponent. The bowl receives the #2 MWC selection, behind the Las Vegas Bowl. Early speculation included Boise State, SDSU, Nevada, and Fresno State at the very least.

In the end, the Cougars have ended up with a very good opponent in San Diego State. They ended in a three way tie atop the Mountain West, going 7-1 in conference with Boise State and Fresno State.

What we know about San Diego State (9-3)

The Aztecs are coming into this game on a 7 game winning streak, including wins over quality opponents: Nevada, Air Force, and Boise State. Their losses this season came on the road at Washington and Fresno State, and at home to San Jose State. Each loss was by fewer than 10 points.

San Diego State sports a potent rushing attack, averaging 229 rushing yards per game, which is good enough for 16th nationally. Their top rusher is Adam Muema, who has rushed for 1355 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. Also impressive is Walter Kazee, who has rushed for 822 yards and 8 touchdowns. Both average more than 5 yards per carry. SDSU will be without Kazee, however, who tore his ACL against Wyoming.

The Aztecs have been led by backup QB Adam Dingwell since Ryan Katz went down with an ankle injury against Nevada. Dingwell has been impressive, winning the Nevada game in OT, and going 4-0 as a replacement starter to end the season. The passing attack is secondary to the rushing attack, though the Aztecs still throw for 179 yards per game.

The Aztecs are used to being in close games this season, win or lose. They average 35 points per game, while giving up nearly 25. It's tough to pick out a bad loss from the three that they had, but if you use the transitive property, the Aztecs lost to Washington, who lost to Washington State, who got blown out by BYU. So...draw your own conclusions.

What we know about BYU (7-5)

A 7-5 record was definitely below most fan expectations for the year. I hoped we'd win two of our four big games, but we ended up losing all of them, and throwing the San Jose State game in the loss column as a bonus. At least two losses came as a direct result of Riley Nelson being injured and playing anyway. And two more came as a result of Riley being Riley. Oregon State ended up running away with the game, so it's tough to point a finger any single direction.

The Cougars sport average passing and rushing attacks. Riley Nelson leads the way for the Cougars, having thrown for 2011 yards and 13 touchdowns, while also serving up 12 interceptions. James Lark, who may play in the bowl if Riley is unable to start, has thrown for 534 yards and 8 touchdowns (0 interceptions). The Cougar rushing attack is led by freshman Jamaal Williams, who has 744 yards and 11 touchdowns. If you want to feel somewhat depressed, the next two leading rushers are Taysom Hill and Michael Alisa, who both went down to injury about halfway through the season. That's just how alone Jamaal Williams is in the rushing department.

The Cougars score only 29 points per game, but their #5 scoring defense limits opponents to under 15.

Keys to the game

Win the turnover battle. This rule has absolutely proved true this season. When winning or tying the turnover battle, BYU is 7-0 this season. When losing the turnover battle, BYU is 0-5. In seven wins, BYU has given up a total of 7 turnovers, while gaining 15 from the opponents. In losses, BYU has given up 15 in five games, while gaining only 2 from opponents. The margin between victory and defeat is so slim for BYU this season, and turnovers, while not always the deciding factor, have been a perfect indicator for success. This makes winning games very difficult when your starting quarterback has thrown 12 INTs and lost 3 fumbles (despite having fumbled 9 times). That is a lot of turnovers to overcome. If the Cougars do not at least tie the turnover count, they will lose to the Aztecs.

Score at least 24 points. Since losing to Washington 21-12 to open the season, San Diego State has not failed to score at least 21 points in each game, and most of the time they've doubled that. I think it's safe to say that BYU's defense will keep the Aztecs below their average, but the Cougar O is going to have to do their part against this SDSU team that will score. 24 points represents SDSU's recent low score plus a field goal. I think that will be the minimum required to beat them.

Stymie the Aztec run game. At nearly 230 yards per game, this is the really potent part of the San Diego State offense. Luckily for BYU, it's also the strength of their defense. The BroncoD has held opponents to an average of just 84 yards per game. Certainly something is going to give here, and if the BroncoD can tear the heart (rushing attack) out of this potent offense, it will go a long way to securing a Cougar victory.

Prediction

So that's it. There's your path to victory, and it's not an easy one, but I think the Cougars are definitely capable enough to get it done. I'm picking BYU to beat the Aztecs, 24-21.

Poll

Who wins the Poinsettia Bowl?

BYU wins BIG!

11 votes

BYU wins a close one

45 votes

SDSU wins a close one

21 votes

SDSU wins big

4 votes

81 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: BYU 50, New Mexico State 14

Jeremy Kidd — Sun, 25 Nov 2012 18:05:51 -0000

The Cougars easily handled the New Mexico State Aggies, as we all expected. I based my call on last year, when the New Mexico State and Idaho games had the same exact score. I figured things hadn't changed much, so I guessed the result at 52-13, which was the result from this year's Idaho game. The actual score was 50-14, so it turns out that how you do against Idaho really is a good indicator of how you'll do against New Mexico State.

Here's a look back at what I wanted to see from the Cougars in this game.

4+ Sacks

The Cougars actually tallied 5 sacks against NMSU's Andrew Manley. Kyle Van Noy had three, Bronson Kafusi had two, with an assist from Ezekiel Ansah (Ziggy) on one of them. Perhaps the most impressive sack stat was a complete New Mexico State series shut down by three consecutive Cougar sacks for a total loss of 22 yards. Grade: A+

200 Rushing Yards

While this stat obviously didn't affect the outcome of this game, I was surprised by the stoutness of the Aggie run defense (at times). The Cougars only managed 136 rushing yards, as Jamaal Williams was held to just 62 yards on 19 attempts. Yeah, that's only about 3 yards per attempt. David Foote had four rushes for 52 yards, and Paul Lasike added 3 rushes for 20 yards. Grade: C

0 Turnovers Given Up

James Lark did fumble once, but unlike other BYU starting quarterbacks of late, he actually recovered the fumble himself. Lark had a 6 to none TD to interception ratio, and in 35 attempts, the Cougar rushers never gave up a fumble. Grade: A+

What we know about New Mexico State (1-11)

The Aggies performed as well as expected, being held to just 187 total yards (158 passing, 29 rushing). I'd say the most impressive feat was the fact that in the middle of the third quarter the Aggies brought the score to within 23-14 before giving up four straight touchdowns to the Cougars.

It's sad when you have only one win on a season, a ten game losing streak, and still you can't definitively say that it's been the worst season in school history. The Aggies' train of pain has not ended yet this year, as they have what we'll call a "winnable" game next week against 3-8 Texas State.

What we know about BYU (7-5)

Certainly all of the game's stats must be taken in context--this game was against New Mexico State--but the Cougars, and especially James Lark, were about as impressive as they could have been. My only complaint is that it took so long to get real separation from the Aggies. Lark led the Cougar offense to a 520 total yards (384 passing, 136 rushing). He was 34/50 passing and added the aforementioned 6 touchdowns with no interceptions. Cody Hoffman set a BYU record with 5 touchdown receptions in the game. He had 12 catches for 182 yards, for an average of 15 yards per catch. The BroncoD finished the regular season as the #3 total defense, and #6 in scoring defense.

The Cougars have nothing left to do this season but wait to find out who their opponent will be in the Poinsettia bowl. The likely choice is San Diego State (9-3), whose losses came against Washington, SJSU, and Fresno State. They're currently on a seven game winning streak, including wins over Boise State, Nevada, and Air Force.

Week 13 Preview: BYU @ New Mexico State

Jeremy Kidd — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 01:36:10 -0000

Last week's comeback attempt against the San Jose State Spartans ended in disappointment for the Cougars, who will likely use this week as an opportunity to vent some frustration by beating up on a significantly weaker opponent.

What we know about New Mexico State (1-9)

Oh the Aggies. Their lone win this season came against FCS Sacramento State in week 1, and it's been downhill ever since. The average score for an NMSU game this season is NMSU 18, Opponent 36. The closest they came to winning against anyone in FBS was an 8 point loss to Idaho.

NMSU is led by QB Andrew Manley, who has stats BYU fans might recognize: 2358 passing yards, 53.8 completion percentage, 7 yards per attempt, 14 TDs, 10 INTs, and a 2012 passer rating of 121.5. He's basically as good a passer as Riley Nelson. Manley's biggest receiving targets are Austin Franklin and Kemonte Bateman. Franklin has 1135 receiving yards this season, averaging a whopping 17 yards per catch as well as 9 touchdowns. Bateman has 529 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Their top rusher is Germi Morrison. Germi has rushed for 580 yards, averaging under 5 yards per rush, and only has one TD.

The last time New Mexico State had a winning season was 2002, when they went 7-5.

What we know about BYU (6-5)

This is the *best* 6-5 team in the nation. Right? Just a handful of plays go differently, and the Cougars could have had an enviable 10-1 record. The problem? If the team was really as good as that, the games wouldn't have been close to begin with. Cougar fans are used to success, and they expect it.

The Cougars have more than enough power to outmatch New Mexico State. They've shown all season long that they can beat up on weaker competition (see WSUx2, Hawaii, Idaho) and struggle against good competition (see Utah, Boise, Utah State, OSU, Notre Dame, SJSU). As near as I can tell, the only truly brilliant game played by the Cougars was against Georgia Tech, which the Cougars dominated handily, 41-17. That game showed that they can play and dominate a good team, but they've only shown that level of play once this season.

Keys to the game

As with the Idaho game, I'm replacing my typical "keys to the game" with "things I'd like to see." I just don't see anything her but a Cougar victory, so the "key" is to show up. Beyond that, here is what I'd like to see from the Cougars.

4+ Sacks

So many of the better teams BYU played this season were able to keep BYU's DL and LBs at bay. NMSU should give us a great opportunity to see some highlights from Ezekiel Ansah (Ziggy) and Kyle Van Noy, among others.

200 Rushing Yards

Jamaal Williams would obviously pick up most of these, but I'd also like to see a breakout game from Paul Lasike. If Riley starts, he should be able to pick up a good chunk of these as well.

0 Turnovers given up

If Riley plays, I think a more reasonable goal might be 2. Seriously though, we need to be better at protecting the ball, and that starts with the QB.

Prediction

Last year BYU beat New Mexico State 42-7, an exact replica of their score against Idaho that year. I see no reason why the Cougars shouldn't duplicate the feat this year, so I'm calling a win for BYU with the same score from their Idaho game this season: 52-13.

Poll

How will Saturday's game turn out?

BYU wins BIG!!!

12 votes

BYU in a close one.

0 votes

NMSU wins a close one

0 votes

NMSU wins big, all of Aggieland rejoices, and the Poinsettia Bowl rescinds their invite to BYU.

3 votes

15 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: San Jose State 20, BYU 14

Jeremy Kidd — Mon, 19 Nov 2012 02:09:03 -0000

Riley Nelson was leading a late 4th quarter charge against a Spartans team that hadn't scored since the second quarter. After leading a touchdown drive with just under 3 minutes remaining, the Cougars lined up for an improbable on-side kick--and recovered it. The Cougars took over at the 47 yard line and drove to the San Jose State 21. The drive included a 4th and 9 conversion and 3 completions to Cody Hoffman. Cougar nation was excited, and the San Jose State faithful were sitting in stunned silence.

Then, Riley Nelson fumbled the ball for the third time (one was recovered by Skyler Ridley), and the Spartans recovered it to seal the win. Here's a look back at our keys to the game to see what went right for the Cougars, and what didn't.

Stop David Fales.

The San Jose State quarterback was in fine form, throwing 25/34 for 305 yards, 3 TDs and an INT. Perhaps the only positive here is that Fales was held to only 3 touchdown passes. After scoring on his first three drives, he was unable to score the rest of the game. Grade: D-

BYU Secondary vs. SJSU Receivers

Obviously Fales had a bit to do with this, but the San Jose State receiving corp made catch after catch, and seemed unstoppable. Noel Grigsby had 8 receptions for 132 yards and 2 TDs. The rest of the group came up with 173 more yards and another TD, with many big plays over the top. Daniel Sorensen did come up with an interception for the Cougars, which was the only Spartan turnover. Grade: D+

Score on offense.

On three consecutive drives between the third and fourth quarters, the Cougars turned over the ball inside the San Jose State 30 yard line. A missed Spartan PAT and a late on-side kick recovery by the Cougars gave hope for a 21-20 victory, but the Cougars simply could not overcome their own 3 turnovers (plus two more failed 4th down attempts). Fourteen points is well below the team goal of 24 per game. Grade: C-, if only because of the hope they provided at the end.

What we know about San Jose State (9-2)

They could be the WAC champions if not for a loss to Utah State. The Aggies would have to lose to the Idaho Vandals next week to give the Spartans any hope, and that's not likely to happen. In addition to that, San Jose State has another stiff test next weekend, as they take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, who are also 9-2. The Bulldogs feature the #1 scoring offense in the nation, at 52.3 points per game. Their only losses are a 2 point loss to Texas A&M and a 48-41 OT loss to Utah State. So the Spartans have no easy path to a ten-win season, but they've shown all season long that they're more than capable of winning.

What we know about BYU (6-5)

The Cougars are around 4 plays shy of being 10-1 right now. Instead, offensive ineptitude and inconsistency has left BYU with a top-ten defense and nothing to show for it besides bowl eligibility built on wins over inferior competition. The Cougars wrap up the regular season on the road next week at New Mexico State.

Week 12 Preview: BYU @ San Jose State

Jeremy Kidd — Wed, 14 Nov 2012 02:22:20 -0000

After a convincing win over Idaho in their home finale last week, the Cougars are heading on the road to take on San Jose State. The Spartans are improved over last year's team, and are riding a four game winning streak going into this game.

What we know about San Jose State (8-2)

After winning just five games last year, and just one game in 2010, the 2012 Spartans are the best team that SJSU has fielded in years. That lone win in 2010 was over Southern Utah. Last year, when the Spartans were 5-7, they lost five games by 10 or fewer points, and 3 of those by just 3 or fewer points. Probably the best indicator for how much better this team is this year? Their loss to Stanford. Last year they lost 57-3, and this year, they lost 20-17. Granted, Stanford isn't quite at the level that they were last year, but they really haven't dropped off all that much either. What else? This year SJSU has won five of their games by at least 20 points.

The Spartans have played two common opponents with the Cougars so far this year. They beat Idaho 42-13 (BYU was 52-13) and they lost to Utah State 49-27 (BYU won 6-3).

SJSU has a top-ten passing attack, which averages 325 yards per game, and they add in nearly 120 rushing yards per game on top of that. They score an average of 35 points per game, while their top-25 defense limits teams to just 20. The Spartans have really put together a solid, well-balanced team this year that has been very hard to stop.

Grain of salt time: aside from Navy and UC Davis, they haven't won a game outside the WAC or MWC, but what they have won, they've done convincingly nearly every time.

What we know about BYU (6-4)

The Cougars are coming off a solid pair of performances over Idaho and Georgia Tech. Sure, we'll definitely give more stock to the big win over Georgia Tech than the one over Idaho, but both were good wins where the Cougars played well on both sides of the ball. They will need to do that again this week, as the Spartans are not looking like "just another easy WAC victory."

BYU has a middle-of-the-road offense, averaging just over 400 yards of offense per game (225 passing, 172 rushing) and 29 points per game. Freshman Jamaal Williams is the star running back, and he has turned in three performances of more than 100 yards rushing this season, including each of the last two games. Cody Hoffman, perhaps the most consistently good offensive player this season, has had more than 100 receiving yards in 5 games this season. They are led by future sandpaper salesman, Riley Nelson (think grit), who has 12 TDs, 11 INTs, and a 6.57 yards per attempt average.

BYU's defense is arguably the best one they've ever fielded, and I think we'll be spending years asking ourselves what could have been made of the 2012 season had the offense not been such a dumpster fire. The BroncoD is top ten in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, and pass defense. With the tough 2013 schedule looming, Cougar fans can only hope that Bronco can reload this defense and that Taysom Hill can get back to 100% for fall. The Spartans will most definitely not be scoring as much as they're used to in this game.

Keys to the game

Stop David Fales. The Spartan QB has numbers that Cougar fans have only been able to dream about for the last few seasons. He's thrown for 3,126 yards, completed 72.4% of his passes, and has a 25:7 TD to INT ratio. His average QB rating for the season is 170. If BYU is to win this game, the BroncoD is going to have to handle this guy. Perspective? His worst QB rating this season was 124. Riley Nelson's season average is 122 (his low was -4.5...which I didn't know you could get until just now). If Kyle Van Noy, Ezekiel "Ziggy Ansah, and co. can get in there and keep Fales worried about defenders, it'll go a long way to stopping the Spartans.

BYU secondary vs. SJSU receivers. Related to the first key, the Spartans have a bevvy of talented receivers, including four that have more than 400 receiving yards for the season, and one, Noel Grigsby, that has 914 so far. Each of those four receivers has at least 30 receptions, a per-catch average yardage greater than 10, and multiple touchdown receptions. Basically, the Spartans have a really great quarterback, and he has a lot of good targets to choose from. BYU's defensive secondary is going to have to be alert and ready to go on every play.

Score on offense. San Jose State isn't going to lose easily. They are going to have to be beaten, and that takes scoring some points. Like I said, they sport a top-25 defense, so the Cougar playmakers will have to have big days. Riley Nelson, Cody Hoffman, and Jamaal Williams are the main contributors to this offense, and they all need to have a good night. Nelson needs to throw for 200 yards, with more TDs than INTs (hopefully a 2:1 ratio or better), and Hoffman and Williams will probably need to turn in 100 yards each in their respective elements. The supporting cast will help, but these guys will be critical for a Cougar victory on Saturday.

Prediction

The Cougars have both won and lost to better teams than the Spartans this year, but things have really come together over the last several games, and I think the Cougars will win in Spartan Stadium, 34-17.

Poll

How will this game go?

BYU wins BIG!

16 votes

BYU wins a close one

13 votes

SJSU wins a close one

6 votes

SJSU wins big; fans chant W-A-C!

1 votes

36 votes | Poll has closed

Cougars dismantle the Vandals

Jeremy Kidd — Mon, 12 Nov 2012 03:58:33 -0000

The Cougars wrapped up their home schedule with a bang, or several bangs, from the George Q. Cannon, winning in decisive fashion over the Vandals of Idaho. With the Win, BYU finished the year 5-1 at home and also secured their postseason home, formally accepting their bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.

I picked the Cougars to win 52-3, but I'll admit I usually overlook the impact of garbage-time reps--which accounts for the extra ten points scored by Idaho. Close enough for me. Here's a look back at what I had hoped to see from our BYU Cougars.

Keys to the game

Win the turnover battle. The Cougars won the turnover battle 5-2, gathering 3 fumbles and 2 interceptions. One of those fumbles was returned for a touchdown by Spencer Hadley, fulfilling my wish to see a defensive score.

Kicking. I had hoped to see a perfect kicking game...but J.D. Falslev and Justin Sorensen combined to produce one of the ugliest field goal attempts I've ever witnessed. You can watch it here.

James Lark. I definitely got my wish for some good James Lark playing time. Lark finished the day 6/11 for 49 yards and a touchdown pass to Cody Raymond. He also rushed for 11 yards.

Secondary Cast. Having a 42-7 halftime lead is the perfect recipe for this, and that meant we got to see plenty of unfamiliar faces. This kind of playing time will not only provide dividends for next season's new starters, but also may help the Cougars this season if they incur any further injuries before the bowl game. Paul Lasike had 12 carries for 44 yards and Skyler Ridley had 4 catches for 53 yards.

What we know about Idaho (1-9)

The Vandals have been, are, and will continue to be one of the worst FBS teams for the foreseeable future. They intend to go independent once the WAC officially becomes football defunct. As a fan of BYU independence, I wish them well. They may have an easier time scheduling than the Cougars, as there are plenty of teams out there eager for a cupcake win. Idaho wraps up their season at home against UTSA and on the road against Utah State.

What we know about BYU (6-4)

BYU has been streaky this year. Not honor-code-violation-streaky, but the other kind. Two wins, two losses, two wins, two losses, and now two more wins. The Cougars will look to break that cycle as they head on the road to face San Jose State and New Mexico State the next two weeks. San Jose State will be no pushover, but it's definitely a winnable game for the Cougars. New Mexico State is New Mexico State. Worst case, the Cougars lose next week and end up 7-5 heading into the Poinsettia Bowl.

Week 11 Preview - Idaho @ BYU

Jeremy Kidd — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 00:23:11 -0000

The Vandals are coming to Provo for the second consecutive year, and the most likely result is another drubbing, like the 42-7 beatdown the Cougars administered last year.

What we know about Idaho (1-8)

Idaho seems to be everyone's favorite team to lay the hurt on. They've had lopsided losses to Eastern Washington, LSU, North Carolina, Texas State, Louisiana Tech, and San Jose State. Their lone win was at home against the New Mexico State Aggies.

The Vandals score an average of 16 points per game, while giving up 42 points per game. Those stats rank them 123rd and 121st, respectively, and I didn't realize there were that many teams in FBS now.

The Vandals will be homeless next season as the WAC becomes football defunct. They've decided they'd rather be independent and FBS than try to find a home in an FCS conference. I predict this will lead to many, many more beatdowns in the years to come.

What we know about BYU (5-4)

Aside from one game that really got away in the 4th quarter (Oregon State), the Cougars played toe-to-toe with the toughest teams on their schedule, and fell just short against all of them. They have good wins against BCS bottom-dwellers WSU and Georgia Tech, as well as non-AQ notables Utah State and Hawaii.

The Cougars score an average of 26 points per game, while giving up just 14. Those stats put the Cougars at 17th and 7th, respectively.

This game against Idaho is just a stepping stone toward the Poinsettia Bowl. Hopefully it will provide the Cougars the opportunity to play a good, clean game, without accruing any more injuries.

Keys to the game

While usually this section is devoted to keys that will lead to victory, today it will be devoted to things that I'd be happy to see, because I don't think anyone questions a win here.

Win the turnover battle. I'd like to see the BroncoD take it to the Vandals, causing fumbles, finding interceptions, and even getting on the scoreboard.

Kicking. I want to see a perfect kicking game. If there's a field goal or PAT, make it. If there's a punt, get it inside the 20. And on the other side, I'd love to see another blocked kick!

James Lark. I love me some healthy Riley Nelson, but the more time you give Lark in this game, the better. I wouldn't want to see another unnecessary injury to a BYU QB that didn't need to be in the game.

Secondary Cast. Along with Lark, I'd like to see more positive plays from a few guys I haven't heard enough from lately. I want to see Skyler Ridley get some good catches, and see Paul Lasike get some more good runs in.

Prediction

It's hard to say whether this game will be easier than New Mexico State or not. Either way, it should be a cake-walk for the Cougars. I've got BYU winning 52-3.

Poll

Who will win at LES on Saturday?

BYU wins big!

21 votes

BYU wins a close one

0 votes

Idaho pulls off a close win

0 votes

Idaho destroys BYU

1 votes

22 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: BYU cruises to an easy victory over Georgia Tech

Jeremy Kidd — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 22:29:35 -0000

The Cougars played really well on both sides of the ball today en route to a 41-17 victory over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Here's a look back at the BYU victory through our keys to the game.

Win the turnover battle. All in all, the turnovers were even today, which is much better than they get in BYU's losses. Daniel Sorensen had a 26 yard interception return that ended up just short of the end zone. On the other side, Georgia Tech's Isaiah Johnson returned a Riley Nelson interception all 22 yards to the endzone for a pick-6. Both teams got a turnover, and both turned it into a touchdown. Grade: C.

Bronco D. After letting Notre Dame rush all over them last week, this group seemed poised for another letdown, as Georgia Tech was coming into the game with the #3 rush attack in the nation, at 339 rushing yards per game. But the Bronco D played incredibly well against the jackets, holding them to just 117 rushing yards, and 157 total yards. Best stat though? BYU only gave up 3 points to the Georgia Tech offense, as one touchdown came on the pick-6, and another came on a kickoff return by Jamal Golden. Grade: A.

Offensive Balance. This wasn't all about the pass-run balance, but about spreading the ball around to various receivers and rushers. In the end, Williams was the offensive star, carrying 28 times for 107 yards and 3 TDs, as well as having 3 catches for 54 yards and another TD. Hoffman was the most frequent receiving target with 7 catches for 69 yards, but APO had the biggest reception of the day, at 43 yards. All in all, plenty of people got touches and yards, but I would like to see another rusher really step up and get some consistently good play. J.D. Falslev had 3 rushes for 32 yards, but that's a huge step back from the 28 touches that Williams got. Grade B-.

Riley Nelson. Riley only served up one turnover today, though it was a pick 6. He also left at least one receiver wide open in the endzone, still waiting for that TD pass. All in all though, he only had a couple of big mistakes, and managed the Jamaal Williams offense quite well the rest of the day. Grade: B.

What we know about Georgia Tech (3-5)

They've only got wins against poor teams this year (Boston College, Virginia, and Presbyterian), and they've been outclassed by the likes of Middle Tennessee State, Miami, Clemson, and BYU. They have three winnable games to start November, against Maryland, North Carolina, and Duke, before heading into their rivalry game against current top-10 team Georgia. A bowl game is still a possibility, but none of the remaining games is a slam dunk, and they have to win three of them. Luckily for them though, BYU is the toughest team they'll face until that showdown with Georgia.

What we know about BYU (5-4)

The Cougars are better than their record. The defense has been great, and the offense is finally coming together, and remind me of the team that won the Armed Forces Bowl against Tulsa at the end of last year. A huge piece in their development has been the rapid rise of freshman star Jamaal Williams. Having a go-to running back is as big a luxury for Riley Nelson as it is to have Cody Hoffman at receiver. Williams is becoming the guy you can count on to get the first down on 3rd and long, and taking pressure off of Riley to run the ball. I don't see the Cougars losing another game in the regular season, as they close out with Idaho, San Jose State, and New Mexico State after their bye next week.

Week 9 Preview: BYU @ Georgia Tech

Jeremy Kidd — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 01:38:35 -0000

The Cougars fell just short against Notre Dame last week, giving up yet another 4th quarter lead. They'll be looking to rebound this week as they head down south to take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

What we know about Georgia Tech (3-4)

The Yellow Jackets are third to last in the ACC, with wins coming against FCS Presbyterian as well as the last two teams in the ACC, Boston College and Virginia. Losses have come against Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), future BYU foe Middle Tennessee, and Clemson.

Georgia Tech is ranked quite low in passing and defending the pass (I believe those are related), as they depend on their #3 ranked rush attack to fuel their offense. They rush for 340 yards per game.

What we know about BYU (4-4)

I'm starting to understand what Utah State fans went through last year, playing even with good teams through 3 quarters and watching it all fall apart in the end. Three of BYU's four losses this year have come by a combined total of 7 points.

The Cougars have lost every marquee game on the schedule this year. Georgia Tech isn't as good an opponent as they looked in the preseason, but they still provide an opportunity for the Cougars to show where they stand in the college football landscape.

My hope is that BYU wins this week and goes on to finish the regular season at 8-4 going into the bowl game. 8-4 will feel a whole lot better than 7-5.

Keys to the game

Win the turnover battle. While last week's turnovers against Notre Dame actually ended in a wash, the Cougars did lose the battle 2-1. If there has been any area that our defense has consistently performed poorly, it's been causing and recovering turnovers. I do see our defenders working to strip the ball, and Kyle Van Noy got an interception last week, but this defense is too good to not be causing more turnovers.

Bronco D. These guys got ran all over by Notre Dame last week, and this week they're facing one of college football's premier rushing attacks. After having been softened up by Notre Dame, it will be interesting to see if they continue to give way to to big rushing yards, or if they will buckle down and make life miserable for the Yellow Jackets.

Offensive balance. If every time you run, you hand it off to Jamaal Williams, and every time you pass you throw it to Cody Hoffman, defenses begin to notice. And when they notice, they key on those players. Both Hoffman and Williams are great players and have made some amazing plays this season, but their game is hampered when they become the only target, and the defense knows that they're the only target.

Riley Nelson. Riley is fairly consistent at making bad decisions. These mostly come in situations where he is about to be sacked. Riley generally responds to this by either throwing a crazy 'let's see if this works' floating pass about 20 yards down-field, or by running backwards and taking a deep sack. I will give Riley some credit though, I saw him actually throw the ball away against Notre Dame at least once. Because his floating passes are nearly always interceptions, and his sacks lose 10-15 yards, the best decision for him to make in these situations is nearly always going to be to throw the ball away. I'd love to see more of that this week.

Prediction

This is as good a statement game as we have left this season, and I hope the Cougars make the most of it. I look for the defense to rally against a weaker opponent than they've faced in weeks, and for Riley Nelson to torch, yes torch, the Yellow Jackets through the air. Look to hear the names of Hoffman, Apo, Friel, and Ridley this week en route to a BYU victory. Cougars 28, Yellow Jackets 14.

Poll

Who will win the battle in Atlanta this Saturday?

The Cougars win big, showing that they're better than their record

26 votes

The Cougars eek out a win, finally closing out a 4th quarter

14 votes

The Yellow Jackets win a close one

12 votes

The Yellow Jackets completely dominate the Cougars, winning big.

11 votes

63 votes | Poll has closed

Notre Dame holds off BYU's upset bid

Jeremy Kidd — Sun, 21 Oct 2012 00:16:58 -0000

At halftime, this game felt really good. The Cougars were up 14-7. They were able to move the ball well enough. The defense was doing its job against the Fighting Irish offense. All the momentum belonged to BYU. But then the second half came around, and the game slowly slipped away from BYU. Here's a look back at our keys to the game.

Win the turnover battle

The final scoresheet will show 2 interceptions to 1, in favor of the Irish, but for the sake of analysis, I'm not counting the last one against Riley. Everyone knows that with fewer than 12 seconds remaining and a lot of ground to cover, the ball is going as far as you can chuck it, regardless of where your receivers end up. Effectively then, the teams broke even on turnovers. Both came on passes tipped from receivers into the hands of the opposing defense. I was especially glad to see Kyle Van Noy get the tipped INT for BYU, since his tip against Oregon State ended up in the hands of a Beaver. Overall, Riley preferred the long sack today as opposed to the interception, which was preferable. He even threw the ball away at least once.

Bronco D

Maybe the tougher competition is wearing on these guys, but I felt that again, we have not seen enough defenders getting into the backfield. Ezekiel Ansah and Kyle Van Noy ought to be getting through to the quarterback much more often than they are. I know other teams are scheming for them, but then, shouldn't someone else be getting pressure? The defense did a great job against Tommy Rees, though he is Tommy Rees, so that was working in BYU's favor anyway. Rees ended the game 7/16 for 117 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. He only attempted 3 passes in the second half, after having one stretch in the first where he was 0-7. Where the defense really struggled was in the run game, as they gave up 270 rushing yards, including a 55 yard run by Notre Dame senior Theo Riddick.

Offensive and defensive balance

You know, I actually thought we had a pretty solid game from both sides. There's obviously room for improvement on both sides. The offense could have scored more points, and I'm specifically thinking of a play where Cody Hoffman was wide open downfield, and watched the ball bounce about ten yards behind him. Our total yards were only 243, but I didn't expect much more than that against this tough Notre Dame defense. Our defense obviously could not handle the Irish rushing attack. But we were in this game, and could have won it. Despite the lopsided score against Oregon State last week, I think we could have won every game on our schedule to this point. In this game, neither the offense nor defense excelled, but neither one was horrible either.

Don't give up

The Cougars definitely did better at this against Notre Dame than they did against Oregon State. The Irish could have run away with this game, but they didn't. Perhaps the only question for me on this is, why did we punt that last time with just a few minutes remaining? It reminded me of the Boise State game, and it sucks to have the clock run out on you. Better to take your chances on a long 4th down play than give it back to a team that's been carving you up with their run attack. Also, we only had one timeout late in the game again, which is something I'd love to have the coaching staff address.

What we know about Notre Dame (7-0)

Well, they certainly don't seem as big and bad as they did coming into the game, but they made enough plays to win, and they're still undefeated. They only have two big tests left standing between themselves and perhaps a national championship game appearance, and they are both top ten teams: Oklahoma and USC. I'd be somewhat reserved about picking the Irish to go undefeated, especially given their flat performance against BYU, but they definitely have the potential.

What we know about BYU (4-4)

The record really says it all. Coming into the season, we were looking at four tough tests for the Cougars: Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech. Oregon State replaced Georgia Tech as the fourth tough game, as the Beavers have far exceeded expectations, and the Yellowjackets have fallen well below them. In the revised top-4 games, the Cougars are now 0-4. Three of them were decided by a total of 7 points, which you could call a moral victory, or a dagger a little too close to the heart. Not too long ago, we were the team that would win almost every close game, but this year, we've been falling just short. Hopefully the Cougars can muster some magic and come home with a road win next week as they face ACC foe Georgia Tech.

Week 8 Preview - BYU @ Notre Dame

Jeremy Kidd — Wed, 17 Oct 2012 02:43:06 -0000

After falling at home to top-ten foe Oregon State, the Cougars are taking the show on the road for a couple of weeks. First up, the #5 team in the nation: the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

What we know about Notre Dame (6-0)

Considering that Notre Dame is perennially overrated, it took me a while to accept that they truly warrant the rating they have. But make no mistake, this is the best Notre Dame team we've seen in more than a decade.

The Fighting Irish are 6-0, including wins against 3 teams that were ranked in the top 10-20 at gametime: Michigan State, Michigan, and Stanford. They still have games against #9 Oklahoma and #10 USC remaining. The Oklahoma game comes next week after the BYU game. What an incredible schedule.

Notre Dame sports the #2 scoring defense in the nation--a defense that is led by former BYU recruiting target Manti Te'o. Every time I see that kid play I shed a little tear for what could have been.

Their offense isn't spectacular, but it is good, especially considering who they've played so far. They average 27 points and 387 offensive yards (206 passing, 181 rushing) per game.

What we know about BYU (4-3)

Bronco will be sticking with Riley Nelson until he can no longer walk. This is absolutely, incontrovertibly true. So get used to it. Brett wrote a great piece on Riley's Turnovers™ earlier this week. Basically, in Riley's starts, you are guaranteed a fumble and at least one interception, according to his averages. So there's that.

Last week's game against Oregon State showed that the offense can work well under Riley. The Cougars scored 24 points, and were tied with the Beavers through 3 quarters. The game also showed that the defense is not as impermeable as we thought.

Keys to the game

Win the turnover battle. Last week the Cougars gave up three interceptions, including a pick-6, but did not get a single turnover in their favor. Getting turnovers (also read, more offensive possessions) will be necessary for a BYU victory, because they will not score very often on this tough Notre Dame defense.

Bronco D. The defense was exposed last week against the Beavers, especially in the secondary. They gave up 35 points (remember the pick-6) and 450 total yards. A huge factor in the Beaver dominance was their offensive line winning the battle against BYU's defense. Hopefully the defense will get its swagger back this week. I'd love to see Ziggy and Kyle Van Noy get back into the backfield where they belong.

Offensive and defensive balance. To win a game against a top team, you have to have a good game on both sides of the ball. The defense has had several really good games. The offense has had a couple. They've only done it together against very weak opponents. Both sides need to feed off of each other and perform at Mendenhall's "high level." If we only see one or the other, we lose this game.

Don't give up. Notre Dame will score on our defense. Our offense will struggle. For three quarters against the Beavers, the Cougars kept up and responded each time Oregon State took the lead. In the end though, the team got sloppy, lazy, or tired. Maybe some gave up. It's hard to differentiate the items on that short list. BYU will face adversity this Saturday. How they respond will determine if the Cougars have a chance to win this game in the end.

Prediction

There's a chance the Cougars win this game. It's slim, but it's there. Unfortunately, so many things have to go exactly right, and we're so far from playing at a top ten level, I just don't see us pulling it off this week. I'm picking Notre Dame to continue their perfect season as they beat the Cougars 28-10.

Poll

How will the Cougars do in South Bend?

The Cougars absolutely demolish the Irish (surprising everyone)

2 votes

The Cougars win a close one

7 votes

The Irish win a close one

10 votes

The Fighting Irish win BIG, showing everyone why they're a top 5 team

41 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: Oregon State rolls over turnover-prone BYU

Jeremy Kidd — Sat, 13 Oct 2012 23:19:11 -0000

The game was tied at halftime, and tied after 3 quarters, but the Beavers blew the game open in the 4th. Fueled by 3 Riley Nelson interceptions, Oregon State ended up cruising to victory, effectively spoiling BYU's homecoming blackout.

What was expected by most to be a defensive showdown quickly became anything but. The Beavers racked up 450 total yards and 6 touchdowns on what had been a top-5 Cougar defense. The BYU offense also came alive, tallying nearly 400 yards, 3 TDs and a field goal. Here's a look back at our keys to the game, to see what went right and wrong for the Cougars.

Battle of the Backups. Cody Vaz was clearly the superior quarterback today, filling in admirably for the fallen Sean Mannion. Vaz ended the day going 20/32 for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns. In comparison, Riley was 28/51 (yes, 51) for 305 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. Riley Nelson should never throw the ball 51 times. Ever.

Rushing. Neither team was stellar, but Oregon State's RB committee won out, totaling 118 rushing yards on 28 attempts. Their leading rusher was Storm Woods, who carried 11 times for 57 yards. Jamaal Williams and Riley Nelson led the Cougars with 36 and 29 rushing yards, respectively.

Turnovers. BYU lost the turnover battle 3-0 today. It was an awful day for the BYU defense overall, but the season-long trend has been an inability to create turnovers, and it continues to hurt. Riley Nelson continues to be Riley Nelson, taking sacks or throwing odd, hanging passes into coverage when throwing it away would be most appropriate.

Kicking. Happily (or not?), the game did not come down to a kick attempt. But, relegating Riley Stephenson to just punt duty seems to have helped things, because Justin Sorensen was perfect on the day. He ended with a 35 yard field goal and 3 PATs.

What we know about Oregon State (5-0)

The Beavers didn't look like the #10 team for most of the game, but those that didn't watch the game will look at the final score and not understand how close the game actually was. Aided by Riley's Turnovers™ (coming to a location near you!), the Beavers pulled away and showed the Cougars why they are ranked as high as they are. Oregon State is 5-0 for the first time since 1939. Next week they will host the Utah Utes in Corvallis, as they begin the soft part of their Pac12 schedule.

What we know about BYU (4-3)

Today we saw the bizzaro Cougars. They scored 24 points on offense and gave up 42 on defense (sure, offset that by 7 because of the pick-6). I did not see this high-scoring game coming, based on play from both teams, as well as the Sean Mannion injury. The Cougars are heading to South Bend for another tough test next week, where they will face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The question is, which BYU will show up?

Week 7 Preview: Oregon State @ BYU

Jeremy Kidd — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 02:03:19 -0000

BYU lost Taysom Hill to injury last week, and Oregon State lost starting QB Sean Mannion as well. Though this raises definite questions regarding how each team will respond without their leaders, I think that in the end these unfortunate events actually tipped this game in favor of the Cougars.

What we know about Oregon State (4-0)

The Beavers have started the season 4-0, and are looking for their first 6-0 start since 1907 with a couple more wins. That is the longest drought of 6-0 starts for any school in FBS football. They have an impressive group of wins, including Wisconsin, UCLA, and Arizona. Oregon State sports the #8 passing offense, but Sean Mannion had a lot to do with that. We'll see just how much he had to do with it on Saturday. The biggest question will be how well backup QB Cody Vaz will respond when taking his first meaningful snaps since 2010.

He won't have much run support, as the Beavers only average 120 rushing yards per game, ranking 100th of 120 FBS schools in the category. Match that up with BYU's #1 rushing defense, and all of the pressure will be on Cody.

What we know about BYU (4-2)

The Cougar offense, once stagnant against Boise, seemed to flourish against Hawaii, and yes, even against Utah State. Despite the low score of that game (6-3), BYU managed 20 first downs and nearly 400 yards of total offense. Certainly you'd like to convert more yards to points, but the offense was moving the ball effectively against a tough Utah State defense. And they actually performed better than other teams have against the Aggie defense.

Riley Nelson, who swears he is healthy and ready to lead the team on Saturday, has the capability to jump in and lead this team at a high level. He is the starter after all. BYU sports the 82nd best passing attack, and the 36th best rushing attack. The Beavers have the 5th best run defense, so again, the pressure will be on Riley to make the plays necessary to win.

Keys to the Game

Battle of the Backups. I think this game is going to come down to a defensive battle because both teams are missing their key offensive cogs this week. Both defenses will be stingy, so whichever offense manages to score will be the difference in the game. Riley has a big opportunity here, because if he actually is healthy, he should be the better QB on Saturday. And Oregon State allows nearly 300 passing yards per game as it is...so there is definitely a good chance for the Cougars, if they can get the ball moving through the air.

Rushing. Once again, you've got the #1 rushing defense (BYU) and the #5 rushing defense (OSU) in this game. There really shouldn't be a whole lot of rushing capability for either offense - but if one does happen to get things moving here, watch out.

Turnovers. Besides their 19-6 win over WSU last week, Oregon State hadn't played a game decided by more than 7 points. I think this game will be close as well. In close, defensive games, every score matters. It is imperative that the Cougars create turnovers AND score when they have the opportunity.

Kicking. Never, ever, ever trust a kicker. It was announced this week that Riley Stephenson will be confined to punting duties, and Justin Sorensen will take over all place-kicking. Because both have been inconsistent, I think this is a good move, because it will allow Justin the greatest number of reps possible...and practice can only help. As it stands now, I'd prefer we go for 2 after every touchdown, and never attempt a field goal. OSU's Trevor Romaine is 6/8 FG on the season, being 3/3 within 29 yards, and 3/5 beyond. He did miss a PAT last week. In the end, I think the Beavers will be comfortable kicking within 29 yards, but the Cougars can't be comfortable at any distance yet.

Prediction

Despite having played to a 38-28 score in Corvallis last year, I think these teams are in for another of BYU's (now patented?) defensive showdowns. It's going to be low scoring, and it's going to be close. I'm picking the Cougars to beat the Beavers in Provo, 13-3.

Poll

Who will win on Blackout Saturday?

BYU rides Riley Nelson to a big win!

18 votes

BYU wins a close one, thanks to blackout magic

54 votes

Oregon State wins a close one

15 votes

OSU demonstrates Pac12 dominance with a big win!

9 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: BYU defense smothers Utah State

Jeremy Kidd — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 00:26:30 -0000

Make no mistake, Utah State is a very good team. But BYU was the better team last night, thanks to their incredible defense. This game had been billed as a defensive battle by fans and media alike. I, too thought it would be a defensive struggle, but at 21-17, I underestimated the BroncoD, and overestimated our offensive output. The 6-3 final score would be all the rage in the SEC, but leaves the Cougar faithful still wondering, "Where is our offense?"

Here's a look back at what went right and wrong for the Cougars in their victory last night.

Quarterback Who? I said last week that a healthy Riley is better than Taysom. After this week, I think Taysom is growing into the role. Sure, Hawaii was low-hanging fruit that even Jason Munns probably would have rolled over, but Utah State has a legitimate defense. Taysom's overall numbers in the game were absolutely on par with Riley: 24/36 passing for 235 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The difference in the game was a 25 second long, 61 yard drive at the end of the first half. The drive included three consecutive completions to Cody Hoffman for 8, 28, and 22 yards, and was capped by a 3 yard TD pass to J.D. Falslev. Was he stellar? No. But he made the plays needed to win the game. Something Riley was really good at...last year.

The Utah State defense had only been allowing an average of 281 total yards (174 passing and 106 rushing), but the Taysom Hill-led Cougars were able to beat those totals, ending with 380 total yards (235 passing and 145 rushing). Scoring aside, this offense had pretty good numbers.

If Taysom and Jamaal can combine for half the rushing yards they did last week, #BYU wins tonight. #dynamicDuo #byutvsports
— Jeremy Kidd (@BYUfootblog) October 5, 2012

The Rush Attack. The preceding tweet was mine, just before gametime. It turned out to be a solid prediction, as Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams rushed for 80 and 71 yards, respectively. That combined total of 151 is two yards higher than half of what they rushed for against Hawaii, and it turned out to be just enough for a Cougar victory. In case you were keeping track, Hill and Williams combined for more yards than the team had in total (145). That was mostly due to Falslev's failed 4th down fake field goal, which netted a 16 yard loss.

Probably the biggest difference in offensive performance this game was Brandon Doman's playcalling. While still not great, it was obvious that the Cougars were intent on making 3rd downs manageable, by making sure to gain a few yards on 2nd down. The result was a 9/20 3rd down conversion rate, which isn't stellar, but it kept drives moving, and gave our defense a few good breaks.

Special Teams. Ugh...as in ugly. Justin Sorensen had his lone FG attempt blocked, and Riley Stephenson had his lone PAT also failed. Utah State's Josh Thompson was 1/2 on the night, with the potential game-tying field goal sailing wide in the 4th quarter. I would be happy if we never attempt another FG or PAT all year. Bronco, you go for 2 buddy. Just go for 2.

Bronco D. Coming into this game, the Aggies had been averaging 454 total offensive yards (261 passing and 193 rushing) and 28 points per game. Against the Bronco D, the Aggies only managed 243 total yards (202 passing and 41 rushing) and 3 points. Ziggy was an absolute monster on the defensive line. His favorite move appears to be the one where he grabs your shoulders and slams you to the ground. Kyle Van Noy also had a great night. My favorite play from Van Noy was when he caused a false start by faking a little jump toward the Aggie O-line. That's intimidation.

What we know about Utah State (4-2)

Chuckie Keeton is a special player, and the Aggies are a solid team. They will recover from their run-in with the BYU defense and go on to a great season. They're heading into the heart of their WAC schedule next week, as they take on San Jose State. Probably the only real challenge game left on the Aggies' schedule is at Louisiana Tech on November 17th. The Bulldogs are currently 5-0. UTSA is also 5-0, but against a significantly weaker schedule to this point.

What we know about BYU (4-2)

There is no question in my mind that this 2012 BYU defense was good enough for a BCS run. I'd take this defense against any offense in the country, but a defense can only do so much. The Cougar offense made strides this week, putting up good passing and rushing numbers while moving the ball effectively against a tough Utah State defense. But scoring is going to have to improve if the Cougars are to get wins against ranked foes Oregon State and Notre Dame in the next two weeks.

As we await official updates regarding Taysom Hill's knee, I have two thoughts. First, the draw play was a really stupid call to make, when all that was needed was a QB kneel, there being less than two minutes remaining in the game. Second, if Hill really is out, the offense next week will only be as good as Riley is healthy. Let's hope he is.

Week 6 Preview: Utah State @ BYU

Jeremy Kidd — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 01:04:35 -0000

The Cougars rebounded last week, winning in decisive fashion over Hawaii after dropping the two previous games against Boise State and Utah. BYU will be hosting in-state foe Utah State this week. The Aggies have made sure that the Cougars take note of this game, having beaten BYU in Logan in 2010, and nearly winning again last year.

What we know about Utah State (4-1)

Head coach Gary Andersen is in his fourth season at Utah State, and the Aggies' turnaround has been remarkable. Back in 2006, the Aggies won just one game, and in 2007, they won two. Over the last three seasons, Utah State has beaten both BYU and Utah, and made it to a bowl game. Each is a feat that they hadn't accomplished in more than a decade.

The Aggies have just one loss this year, coming on the road at Wisconsin. The Aggies had built a 14-3 halftime lead, but ended up losing 16-14 when their last-second field goal attempt sailed wide right. Who have they beaten? Southern Utah, Utah, Colorado State, and UNLV.

The Aggies feature an amazingly athletic QB in Chuckie Keeton, who threw for 402 yards and 4 TDs last week against UNLV. They also have a gifted RB in Kerwynn Williams, who is also a receiving threat. Against UNLV, Williams had 20 carries for 113 yards and added 7 receptions for 147 yards.

What we know about BYU (3-2)

After so many games, you'd think this part would be easy. It is and it isn't. The Cougars decisively won their opener against Washington State, who showed some life in the first half against Oregon this week. They rolled over Weber State and Hawaii. But they lost two very close games to Utah and Boise State. It all reeks of inconsistent play.

Our defense is not inconsistent. The #BroncoD is #4 in points against average, giving up 10.0 points per game. That includes opponent scores of 24, 13, 7, 6, and 0 points. And don't forget that 14 of those points were given up by the offense.

Oh the offense. This is where words like 'prediction' and 'identity' are lost in mists of darkness. This is due in part to having played an injured Riley Nelson against the two toughest opponents to date. When he wasn't injured, the Cougar offense was pretty good, and when Taysom Hill filled in last week, the offense rolled again. But those games weren't against the top teams on BYU's schedule, so all we know is that this offense can be good. What we don't know is, will they be good this week? Can they come together and up their game against stronger competition? Will Riley be a lame-duck quarterback the rest of the season?

Keys to the game

Quarterback Who? Watching last week's game against Hawaii, I got to feeling very good about our offense. Sure, it was Hawaii, but things were clicking. Taysom Hill put on an average passing performance, but he was absolutely stellar on the ground. He evaded tacklers and scrambled for first downs and touchdowns in a way that reminded me of a healthy Riley Nelson. A completely healthy Riley is still better than Taysom, for now. But I don't know if we will see that Riley again. I agree that healthy Riley is the starter. So long as he's away, Taysom should be filling in.

The Rush Attack. Remember when Josh Quezada transferred just before the season started? That transfer seems more weighty now that Alisa has a broken arm. Last week, Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams combined for nearly 300 rushing yards, and Paul Lasike and David Foote added about 40 yards each, in an all-out rushing attack that hasn't been seen at BYU in years. Granted, it was Hawaii, and Hawaii lost two DTs to injury very early in the game. It was still impressive. Williams has gotten more touches and shown improvement every week, and he is the Cougars' starting RB for Friday.

Special Teams. Neither team wants this game to come down to a field goal try. Aggie Josh Thompson is 3 of 4 on the season, with the lone miss being the potential game-winner against Wisconsin. He was only good 60% of the time last year. BYU's kicking has been inconsistent, with the best showing coming from Riley Stephenson, who made 3 of 4 FGs against Washington State.

Bronco D. This unit is special, and they have put every game within reach for the offense this year. This Friday's game against Utah State may be the game where the defense simply has to take control and win the game. Yes, I'm thinking something along the lines of the Ole Miss game from last year, when Kyle Van Noy caused a fumble, recovered the fumble, and scored. This defense is far and away the best of any unit on either team, and they need to prove it by creating and capitalizing on turnovers.

Prediction

Utah State is legit. They come at you breathing fire from the opening snap. Utah and Wisconsin were both unprepared for the Aggie attack, and each faced early deficits against Utah State. I think BYU will have to come from behind to win this game. The Aggies' early intensity level is too hard to maintain, so if the Cougars weather the storm, they will be able to make that comeback. But I don't see Riley Nelson leading us to victory this year. Taysom Hill may not be the starter, but he needs to start this Friday. If Taysom starts and our defense scores, we win this game.

I'm picking the Cougars to ~~upset~~ beat the Aggies, 21-17.

Poll

How will the Cougars do against the Aggies?

BYU wins big, proving their elder-brotherness

26 votes

BYU wins a close game (in which Cougar fans will NOT storm the field)

43 votes

Utah State wins a close one

19 votes

Utah State steamrolls BYU

6 votes

94 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: BYU Cougars run over Hawaii

Jeremy Kidd — Sat, 29 Sep 2012 15:22:39 -0000

This game ended up being exactly what it was expected to be. BYU's defense continues to be aggressive, nasty, and absolutely dominating. This was the first shutout by the defense since blanking Wyoming 52-0 in 2009. The offense looked better than it had in weeks--partly due to the opponent, but also because BYU finally played with a healthy quarterback.

Here's a look back at my keys to the game, to see what worked and didn't work for the Cougars.

Quarterback Quandary. The coaches finally made the right decision by not playing an injured Riley Nelson. And while Taysom Hill wasn't necessarily impressive in his passing performance, it was more than enough against Hawaii. Hill threw 12/21 for 112 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. My favorite pass was the touchdown to Ross Apo, who looked visibly relieved to finally get the ball and score. It's nice to know someone can get the ball to him.

James Lark and even Jason Munns got to take some reps in the end. Lark led the Cougars on two touchdown drives, which mostly consisted of hand-offs to Paul Lasike and David Foote. Munns didn't throw a pass, but got to lead the final drive, which made it 43 yards before being turned over on downs.

While the coaches did make the right decision in this game to go with Hill as the starter, two things stuck out to me as being really weird. First, Riley was there on the sideline, with full pads and a helmet on for much of the game. I understand that he wants to play, but at some point, especially when the starter decision has been made, it's time to show up without pads.

The other weird thing were Bronco's comments. Despite Taysom showing good play and capable leadership, Bronco held that Riley Nelson is still the team's starter. I have no problem with that, because I do think a healthy Riley Nelson is better than Taysom Hill. What I do have a problem with the reason given: "There isn't as much history between [Taysom] and I like there is between Riley and I." Seriously?? It's just a bewildering comment, and sounds weird coming from the master of performance and execution.

The Rush Attack. Michael Alisa broke his arm early in the game, so it was up to others to get the job done, and the game turned into the Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams coming-out party. Now you have to take all of this with a Hawaiian-sized grain of salt, but he and Williams were unstoppable out there. Williams carried the ball 15 times for 155 yards and 2 TDs, and Hill also rushed 15 times for 143 yards and a TD. Between the two of them, that's an average of nearly 10 yards per carry. If Hill's passing wasn't impressive, his running absolutely was. His touchdown run was 68 yards. When's the last time a BYU quarterback did that?

Special Teams. Falslev had three punt returns, and many fair catches. He had one 13 yard return. Hawaii attempted a fake punt, which the Cougars snuffed out. Probably the biggest stat was that BYU was 5/7 on PATs in the game, which got me thinking that maybe there was more behind the call to go for two against Boise State than we realized. PATs are supposed to be automatic, right?

Bronco D. These guys just continue to impress. Hawaii was held to 1/12 on 3rd down conversions, and 0/2 on 4th down. They only managed 108 passing yards and 41 rushing. We finally had a game where the Cougars won the turnover battle, as the defense recovered two fumbles and had an interception. My favorite defensive moment came in Hawaii's opening drive of the third quarter. On 2nd and 10, Kyle Van Noy and Ziggy clobbered Hawaii QB Sean Schroeder, who fumbled the ball. The ball was recovered by Spencer Hadley at the Hawaii 3 yard line, where he appeared to fumble it, and Ziggy recovered it in the endzone. Hadley was ruled down with possession at the 3, but it was a really exciting play to watch. Check it out.

What we know about Hawaii (1-3)

The Warriors are really bad. They ended last season 6-7, just missing out on bowl eligibility with a final regular season loss to BYU. This year, it's hard to imagine even 3 more wins will come their way. Next week the Warriors will face the San Diego State Aztecs as they get into the heart of their MWC schedule.

What we know about BYU (3-2)

We absolutely know what our defense will bring every week. As it stands right now, BYU is 6th overall in points against. The biggest questions are still on offense. The young Cougars (Hill and Williams) looked really good out there against Hawaii, but that was Hawaii. BYU is heading into a tough four week stretch that includes Utah State, Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech. Michael Alisa is out. Williams, Lasike, and Foote all looked good on Friday, but will they be able to keep it up against stronger competition? Will Bronco play Riley before he's fully recovered? It could make for an interesting Utah State game next week. What if a struggling Riley has to be pulled so the game can be saved by Taysom Hill? Sounds familiar.

Week 5 Preview: Hawaii @ BYU

Jeremy Kidd — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 14:17:09 -0000

BYU is looking for a win after losing two close games in just five days. After consecutive home wins against Washington State and Weber State, the Cougars dropped road games at Utah (24-21) and at Boise (7-6). The Warriors are coming to Provo on Friday this week, with kickoff coming at 6pm MT.

What we know about Hawaii (1-2)

The Warriors' 2011 season ended with a home loss to BYU, which put Hawaii at 6-7 on the season and out of bowl contention. In that game, the Warriors played the Cougars pretty well through halftime, taking a 13-10 lead into the locker room. But the Cougars rallied in the third quarter, scoring 4 unanswered touchdowns en route to a 41-20 victory. The Warriors' 6 wins last season were Colorado, UC Davis, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, Idaho, and Tulane...so...draw your own conclusions about how good they were. This year's version of the Warriors had a big win over Lamar (of the Southland conference), but big losses to USC and Nevada. They are BYU's weakest opponent until the soft November schedule begins.

What we know about BYU (2-2)

What do we know about the Cougars? The offense is not playing anywhere near its talent level. That's a combination of refusing to bench an injured quarterback, an offensive line that has major consistency issues, and questionable play calling (I'm looking at you WEAK-SIDE OPTION). The defense is actually playing above expectations. These guys are a legitimate top 10 defense. Case and point: holding Chris Petersen's Boise State Broncos scoreless after they recovered a BYU fumble on the 1 yard line. In the end, this BYU team is literally a few inches (doinked FG) and one tipped pass (2 pt conversion attempt) from being 4-0...sure, the FG only gets us to overtime, but I liked our chances! The Cougars can still have a great season, but they could also have an awful season. It really comes down to whether or not the offense can get it together and play football.

Keys to the game

Quarterback Quandary. This shouldn't be an issue. If Riley isn't healthy, he shouldn't be playing. He accounted for 4 of BYU's 5 turnovers last week, and had better passing stats to Boise State than to BYU. Until Riley is 100%, Taysom Hill should be starting in his place. BYU coaches stubbornly left Riley in the game too long against Boise, and it cost the game. Hopefully they don't make the mistake with the season.

The Rush Attack. I don't care who your quarterback is, he shouldn't be your leading rusher. Taysom Hill provided more rushing yards against Boise State than all of the Cougar running-backs combined...and he didn't play very much of that game. Lack of rushing production is largely due to the offensive line, which has failed to open up the running lanes needed for sizable gains. Last note - Jamaal Williams needs more touches. He only carried the ball once against Boise, for 6 yards. The Cougar yards-per-carry average for RBs that day was only 2.5.

Special Teams. We've got a great punter in Riley Stephenson. We have a consistently inconsistent FG kicker in Justin Sorensen. I wish we would have open tryouts to try and find someone that can at least be consistent within 35 yards. Our return guys are explosive. Hoffman and Falslev are just waiting to bust through to the endzone again this year. They have each had some great 30+ yard returns. Hawaii might be the opportunity they've been waiting for.

Bronco D. These guys should embarrass Hawaii this week. Some things I'd look for this unit to accomplish? Create turnovers, keep the Warriors under 100 yards rushing, and score a touchdown. And I'd love to see KVN, Ziggy, and others add to their sack count.

Prediction

Hawaii is a bad team. If you throw out the Warriors' lopsided FCS win, their average points scored is 17 while their defense gave up 59 -- that's an average! The BYU offense is going to look much better than it has in weeks, and the Hawaii offense is going to look worse than its average.

I've got the Cougars winning big, 42-6.

Poll

You decide: Cougars or Warriors?

BYU wins big!

33 votes

BYU barely overcomes offensive gaffes to win a close one

8 votes

The Warriors steal a close game in Provo

0 votes

Norm Chow unleashes his pent up rage on the Cougars and the Warriors win big!

1 votes

42 votes | Poll has closed