SB Nation User Blog: Jerry

Silva, the Long Term, and the Silver Lining

Jerry — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 20:36:47 -0000

Hey, I am as pissed off about this move as the rest of you. However, I would like to focus on the bright side of this whole debacle.

Unlike most other silver lining explanations of this move, I am nost going to waste anyones time BSing about how this is going to help the club win more games, because signing Silva for more than $5 mil per year is pretty much stupid. He isn't a terrible pitcher. He is just the type of guy that is useful only before he hits free agency. Only stupid teams sign guys like this to multi-year deals in free agency. However, the M's are a stupid team. That is where the bright side of this deal is.

The biggest problem the M's have is their general manager and front office. It is pretty much a 100% certainty that this is a 'win or else' year for Bavasi et al. Thus, we are watching Bill make desperation moves to save his ass. That is what is so frustrating about this club. They don't realize that they aren't legit contenders, and they don't have any clue how to get to that point in the first place. The inability to evaluate talent is an unconquerable obstacle in this organization. They just won't be a good team unless changes are made at the top.

I am hoping that this will be one of the last nails in Bavasi's coffin. As it stands now, the M's aren't anything resembling a contender. The Angels are far and away the biggest lock to win their division in baseball. Adding Silva, plus a few additional minor moves - maybe one of the guys coming off injury like Clement, Colon, Jennings, Garcia or Prior - aren't going to be enough for the M's to close the gap.

Assuming that this is the big move of the offseason, I would argue that the M's are barely a .500 club. That is enough to get Bavasi fired. Most likley, the Angels will win around 95 games and the M's will be effectively out of contention by July.

Hopefully, this is the worst that Bavasi does to fuck up the roster that his replacement will inherit. If that is true, this isn't the end of the world.

If Bavasi manages to not trade away any young talent or lock us in to other terrible contracts, the M's roster will be in relatively good shape. Sexson, Ibanez, Bloomquist, and Johjima are off the books after 2008. Washburn, Beltre, Batista, and Vidro are off the books the following year. While guys like Washburn, Batista, and Silva aren't good contracts, they aren't immovable albatrosses either, especially with the price of mediocre starters going up every year. By mid-season, and especially by the next offseason, those contracts could actually have trade value. If Bavasi gets canned, his successor could move some contracts and regain flexibility pretty easily.

The M's have some near-ML-ready young talent and a few guys locked up on good value contracts for a few years. This would be an easy club to get back into contention, if we only had the right GM.

Hopefully, this is Bavasi's last failure. In that sense, perhaps this is some sort of rock-bottom moment. Sorta like the DWI that forces an alcoholic to re-evaluate his life and get help. I certainly hope so, because it sucks going into an offseason knowing that the guy running the club just doesn't get it.

Guillen vs. Fukudome

Jerry — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 23:06:05 -0000

Well, now that the season's over, it is never too early to start chatting about the offseason.

It seems like most people are pretty comfortable with the assumption that Guillen will be back next year. He is supposedly looking for a multi-year deal, with Eric Byrnes' recent contract as a guide for what he may be looking for. The negotiations are going to be starting around 3yrs/30mil, and 4 years, at over $10 mil per is a real option.

I thought that Guillen was a solid pickup by Bavasi, but I think the M's should seriously consider other options.

In my opinion, the most interesting alternative is Japanese RFer Kosuke Fukudome.

I like the idea of going after Fukudome instead of Guillen for several reasons. One, Fukudome gives you pretty much everything Guillen does: good RF defense, an excellent arm, solid bat, and slightly above average power. However, Fukudome gives you a lot of things Guillen doesn't: a lefty bat, excellent plate discipline, and more speed. The lefthandedness and ability to get on base are the biggest factors. All the scouting reports on Fukudome talk about how he has a very new-school, US approach at the plate, and draws a ton of walks. More Hideki Matsui than Ichiro. He probably won't hit 30+ HRs, but he will likely hit 20 or so, with a lot of doubles and a great OBP.

All in all, he sounds like a Bobby Abreu or JD Drew type player. He also gets plus grades for athleticism and defense, so sticking him in RF would probably be a slight upgrade at least.

Nobody is talking about Fukudome right now because he had surgery to remove bone fragments from his elbow and missed a much of the second half of the season. However, this is actually a good thing for the M's. His elbow injury is less serious than Guillen's last offseason, and will help keep his price down. He is projected to be ready by the opening of spring training, no problem.

Even if Fukudome costs a bit more, I think the M's should pursue this guy aggressively. He fits perfectly with what this club needs: walks, lefty bat, and good OF defense. Plus, he won't cost the club a draft pick.

This is a no-brainer to me.

Congrats Bill!

Jerry — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 15:36:21 -0000

Bill Bavasi has been selected as the worst GM in baseball by Dayn Perry at Foxsports.com.

Congratulations Bill. It is well deserved.

Here is what Perry had to say about our beloved GM:

"No GM is worse when it comes to identifying free-agent targets, and on the trade market he's also played a little fast and loose with the organizational depth. He'll leave the M's as an organization that's in demonstrably worse shape than when he arrived."

The whole list is available at:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6392576

The silver lining to this: the M's next GM can't possibly do worse.

Callis delivers vicious Bavasi cockpunch!

Jerry — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 00:39:18 -0000

Jim Callis gave his take on the Vidro fiasco. It was buried beneath an article on Jeff Samardzija. Not really anything that we haven't been saying for a while, but it is always nice to know that knowledgable outsiders agree with us:

Christmas Comes Early For Nats

Trades have a funny way of turning out differently than expected. Yet it's hard to envision a scenario where dealing for Jose Vidro is going to work out for the Mariners.

Beset by leg injuries, the 32-year-old Vidro is a shell of what he once was offensively and can't cover enough ground to play a passable second base. The Nationals owed him a total of $16 million over the next two seasons, and would have been content to just dump most of his salary, regardless of which players he would have brought in return.

But not only did Seattle pick up $12 million on Vidro's contract--not to mention give him a vesting option for 2009--but it also gave Washington two promising youngsters. Outfielder Chris Snelling hasn't been able to stay healthy, but he's fully capable of hitting for a higher average and more gap power than Vidro. Righthander Emiliano Fruto may be an enigma, but he'll show a plus-plus changeup, a plus fastball and a plus curve, and he should offer some bullpen help.

Vidro will DH for the Mariners, who gave up three more young players (Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera and Shawn Nottingham) during the summer to acquire the DH platoon of Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez from the Indians. Embattled Seattle GM Bill Bavasi has a mandate from ownership to win now, but the Vidro deal will hurt Seattle in the present and in the future.

I like how Callis puts the whole search for a DH in perspective. Basically, the M's have pissed away Snelling, Cabrera, Nottingham, Fruto, and Choo to acquire Vidro's albatross contract and whatever spare parts we got from trading Broussard.

Sweet.

M's make offer to Brian Lawrence?

Jerry — Mon, 08 Jan 2007 01:31:58 -0000

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_previousnews.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3244

"The Rockies have yet to join the Mariners and Padres in making an offer for free agent Brian Lawrence."

Huh.

Lawrence would fit in well with the M's M.O. this offseason:

Injured?

Check. Lawrence is coming off surgery for a torn rotator cuff. Who knows how healthy he is, but a few teams are at least giving him offers.

Mediocre?

Check. When healthy, you cannot find a more average starter than Lawrence. Pre-injury, he ate up innings. His stats, year to year, are consistently average.

Groudball tendencies?

Check. He has groundball tendencies, but not extreme ones.

Obviously, evaluation of the possibility of adding Lawrence depends entirely on the specifics of the deal. This is a decent signing if it is an NRI or one year deal for minimal money. It would also be a decent deal for a few mil for one year if the M's were pretty confident in his health.

I would not be suprised at all to see this end up as the M's final move add starting pitching this offseason.

Batista $$$$ Over/Under

Jerry — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 01:51:13 -0000

What do you think the terms of Batista's three year deal will be?

I will put it at 3 years, $25.5 million.

What do you think?

Where do we stand?

Jerry — Sun, 10 Dec 2006 23:01:35 -0000

I was reading some other posts on this blog, and it got me thinking about what type of approach the M's should take for the rest of the offseason.

A huge part of this is based on where the front office sees this club in its return to contention.

Obviously, the roster is far from set. But a lot of the available players are no longer options. We have traded our best trade chip, and the other players who we could move (Sexson and others) would be more likely to be 2008 moves than win-now moves.

So, I wanted to pose the question:

Are the M's actually worse now than they were in 2006?

Again, it remains to be seen what the team does for the remainder of the offseason. But, supposing Bavasi et al don't do anything dramatic (which seems unlikely to me), and only add, say, something along the lines of Jeff Suppan and Cliff Floyd, will this club win more games than they did in 2006?

As it stands now, the offense should be better. Ichiro in CF and Guillen in RF is an upgrade. It is not unrealistic to expect improvement from Sexson, Beltre, Johjima, and Lopez in 2007. Adding a guy like Floyd would just make the club better, and Snelling is far better than anyone we have had on the bench in a while.

But the pitching is way worse than it was in 2006. We have essentially traded Meche and Moyer for Horacio Ramirez. Assuming we don't add Barry Zito or pull off a major trade, the next pitcher the M's add is likely to give us close to the same production as Moyer (guys like Suppan and Thomson fall into this category). Baek and Woods are 6.0 ERAs waiting to happen, and Feierabend is the only guy who I consider a long-term option who is anywhere near ML ready. He is not an impact player, and definitely shouldn't be counted on to come in like Verlander did last year.

At the same time, we just subtracted our second best relief pitcher. The pen is not going to be as good in 2007. We had a lot of guys who overachieved, and I don't expect guys like Huber, Woods, O'Flaherty, and others to fill that gap in the pen. They will still be good, but not as good.

I dunno. I figured that the M's were a near lock to at least continue their slow incremental improvement since 2004. But I am not so sure now. This is looking like a 78-80 win team to me, with a big possibility of setbacks. The season could all fall apart easily given the lack of starting pitching depth that the club has.

I would be interested to hear what you guys think.

I am beginning to think that the M's need to reevaluate their status and reconsider their approach to this offseason.

Rate the Prospects!

Jerry — Thu, 07 Dec 2006 19:17:32 -0000

I need to get my mind off Whore-atio Rafuckingmirez.

Baseball America will come out with their annual top 10 prospects for the M's next Monday.

I like to follow the M's farm system pretty closely, and now that the offseason is officially a bust, I am looking for a reason to turn my attention away from Bill Bavasi's handiwork.

Anyhow, BA is IMO the best non-team-specific resource on prospects, followed closely by Kevin Goldstien at BP and John Sickels. Sickels and Goldstien's organization reviews won't be out for a while. And Jason Churchill should be doing a top-50 soon as well.

It is always interesting to compare how these authorities rank prospects relative to our own, less informed outsider perspectives.

Rankings are always subjective, but it is fun to put together lists and compare them with other clubs.

Lets use this thread to come up with our own lists, and compare them with the ones that should be coming out soon.

Here is top 25:

Adam Jones, CF: Underrated by national prospect pundits, but played well in AAA at age 20. Heir apparent to Ichiro?
Jeff Clement, C: struggled a bit, mainly due to completely incomprehensible promotion by the M's. Still a top prospect. Lefty power at C is extremely rare.
Brandon Morrow, RHP: the prospect that should have been Andrew Miller is still a good arm. Biggest question is whether or not he sticks as a starter or moves to the pen. Either way, he could move fast.
Anthony Butler, LHP: Huge debut. Looks like a potential steal of the draft. Huge, projectable, and only needs to improve control a bit. Nice prospect.
Ryan Feierabend, LHP: closest starter to the majors. His stuff has always been better than his results, but he has held his own against older competition at every level. The new Travis Blackley? Could help the M's in 2007.
Chris Tillman, RHP: big potential. Has great body and stuff, and could take off in 2007. Lots of upside.
Emiliano Fruto, RHP: still technically a prospect, Fruto did a lot better last season than a lot of people give him credit for. With Soriano being given away for nothing, lets hope that Fruto can emerge as a major contributor in 2007.
Mark Lowe, RHP: Huge question mark. Should probably be lower given the potential severity of his injury. Perhaps the M's willingness to trade Soriano for scrap reflects a much better prognosis than we might think? Or maybe I am just trying to fool myself.
Greg Halman, CF: He did well in the NWL before injuring his hand. Scouts love his tools, and he reminds you a bit of Adam Jones based on physique. One to watch in 2007.
Carlos Triunfel, SS: We don't know much about him, but he is the highest profile international signing the M's have made in a long time. Initial scouting reports are glowing, and he could be the best prospect in the system by 2008.
Mario Martinez, OF: I put him below Triunfel based mainly on his signing bonus and national exposure, but some people are suggesting that the M's like him just as much as Triunfel. Again, very little information to go on, but early reports are that he is a toolsy outfielder with a ton of potential.
Luis Valbuena, 2B: Stats look ugly, but peripheral stats are promising. Could take off in 2007 in High Desert. Underrated.
Brain LaHair, 1B: I am not sold on this guy, but his flashes of brilliance at AAA last year were too impressive to rank him any lower. Could be the next Ben Broussard.
Geraldo Avila, 1B: One of the best power prospect in the lower minors. Bit lefty 1Bman.
Carlos Peguero. OF: tore up the AZL (.313/.380/.649) before earning a late promotion to Everett. He is huge (6'5", 210 at age 19), lefthanded, and has serious tools. This is the type of guy that the M's are lacking right now.
Alex Liddi, 3B: Big, projectable, raw Italian player. Will be 18 next season, and is a guy to keep an eye on.
Yorman Bazardo: Stuff is better than results, and K rate is very low for a guy with his arm. Needs to move to pen next year.
Matt Tuiasosopo: like Clement and Jones, the M's have promoted this guy at a breakneck pace. Why? Who knows. I think his struggles are just as much a reflection of the M's handling of him as they are of his talent. Next season is a make-or-break year for him. Still has tools and time, but is fading fast.
Justin Thomas, LHP: Could be the next Travis Blackley or Bobby Livingston. Scouts like him better than the other soft-tossing lefties in the sysem (eg Robert Rohrbaugh). Faces a huge challenge in 2007.
Wladimir Balentien, OF: Lets hope that he can consolidate the gains he made in plate discipline last season, continue to cut down his K's, and maintain power. That is much easier said than done.
Eric O'Flaherty: very good season in 2007, and he held his own in Seattle. Could use some time in Tacoma next year, but he should be back in Seattle very soon.
Anthony Varvaro, RHP: this is my pick for biggest sleeper in the organization. A full season removed from TJ surgery, I can't wait to see what this guy can do when healthy.
Rob Johnson, C: Difficult to evaluate due to overly aggressive promotions. Still a decent prospect, with a good balance of strong defense and some offensive upside.
Kameron Mickolio, RHP: A good sleeper candidate and very reminiscent of JJ Putz. He is a huge guy (6'9", 256) and could flourish in the pen. Teach him how to throw a splitter, and he could turn into a very good power reliever.
Steve Uhlmansiek, LHP: solid return from arm problems in 2006. Next year will be big for him.

Missing the cut: Travis Blackley, Stephen Kahn, Michael Saunders, Michael Garciaparra, Yung Chi Chen.

Obviously, I weigh upside more than likelihood of helping the ML club. Thus, Triunfel, Peguero, Avila, and Martinez are ranked higher than guys who are safer bets.

The strength of this system is concentrated in the lower levels, and, overall, it is not a good group. Hopefully, Bavasi's idiocy won't include dealing these guys for more crap.

Instead of dwelling on the negative (Horacio Ramirez), why don't you guys post your own lists. Or just bash mine. Then, we can compare against what guys like Jim Callis, John Sickels, and Kevin Goldstein come up with. The best Mariners-specific sources, Jason Churchill, should be putting out a list soon as well.

Arbitration

Jerry — Sat, 02 Dec 2006 16:53:05 -0000

I was just perusing the list of guys who were/weren't offered arbitration. Some interesting stuff:

Guys who were offered arbitration:
Gil Meche: Yeah. It was a no-brainer on offering him arbitration. But nice nonetheless. The M's pick up a supplemental pick. So if they do sign Schmidt or another Type-A guy, the loss of the second round pick isn't so painful.

Jason Schmidt: no suprise here. He is a type A, but probably worth losing a pick over.

Not Offered Arbitration:
Luis Gonzalez: The D-Backs weren't going to offer him arbitration because of his big salary in 2006. But now he definitely won't cost picks.

Aubrey Huff: this is the real interesting one. I figured he would probably be offered arbitration. His 2006 salary was only 7 million, so I am suprised the Astros didn't take a risk. I guess that the bloated contracts to Oswalt and Lee, and the possiblity of bringing back Clemens and Pettite played a part in that decision. IMO, this makes Huff a legit option for the M's. Picking him up would be a solid move. His versatility would help the M's with trades also, particularly moving Sexson.

Barry Bonds: Again, no big suprise here. He would have gotten a fortune in arbitation. I love the idea of picking him up. He is the only real big impact bat that makes sense for the M's.

I am hoping that the M's take draft pick compensation into consideration this offseason. It would be really nice to keep all the picks we have, plus the extra one for Meche. This draft class is looking like an excellent one, particulalry with highschool players. The M's could pick up a few really good, high-ceiling players this year if they don't piss away their picks.

FA Perusing: Barry Bonds

Jerry — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 15:44:41 -0000

More and more, it is looking like Bonds could be the best value on the free agent market.

If you get past the initial reaction to the idea (NOOO!), there are a lot of reasons why Bonds would be a perfect fit for the M's.

The Mariners badly need a lefthanded power bat, and they also need players who can get on base.

Bonds fills both needs perfectly.

Although his final stats for 2006 (.270/.454/.545 with 26 HRs) don't match up with the ludicrous numbers that we have come to expect from the best hitter in baseball over the past decade (~.350/.550/.800 w/ 45+ HRs), there is good reason to think that Bonds still has something left in the tank:

Pre-Allstar: .249/.474/.497
August: .333/.459/.638
September: .299/.405/.657

When Barry got healthy at the end of 2006, he was putting up incredible numbers.

All of the scouting reports and information I have been able to find about him suggest that his bat speed and eye are still exceptional.

Everyone talks about how moving him to DH full-time would help keep his legs fresh.

In all likelihood, you can conservatively pencil Bonds in for .300/.450/.550 for as long as he remains on the field in 2007. And the upside is a lot better than that.

The downsides to Bonds are obvious and hugely important.

First, he is a total douchebag.

Second, he is a cheater.

Third, he is universally despised.

Fourth, he will turn 43 next summer.

Fifth, he has knee problems that won't go away.

Sixth, he has a well-documented reputation as a clubhouse cancer.

Seventh, he is a total douchebag.

All important points. But really, only two of those points have anything to do with Bonds' performance.

If the M's did go after Bonds, he would create a circus sideshow atmosphere. About 90% of media attention in spring training and early in the season would focus squarely on Bonds, overshadowing any other good news that comes from the club. But I do think that the media attention would wane more that people might think.

The impact on attendance would be tough to gauge. Everyone loves to see a spectacle, and Bonds is definitely a spectacle. The M's would draw big crowds for away games, but I am not sure how fans in Seattle would react. The team would be far less family friendly, but it would be a lot more interesting to watch. And we would still have Ichiro, Ibanez, and Felix as marketable guys.

But one thing is really clear to me: if the M's signed Bonds, and he was able to play ~130-140 games next year, he would dramatically improve the offense. He would help the club win games.

From a sheerly performance-focused perspective, I love the idea of adding him to the lineup. Bonds would help fix our biggest weakness - the M's ranked 13th out of 14 teams in the AL in OBP last season - and solve the M's problems with finding a good #3 hitter. He would also do well in Safeco. And, as the DH, his horrible defense isn't much of an issue at all (although it would keep Ibanez on the field).

Finally, Bonds' status as the most hated man in baseball, coupled with his age, will drive down his price. If the M's could sign him for less than $12 million on a one-year deal, it could be an absolute bargain. And since there are so few worthwhile things to spend money on this offseason, a one-year deal would be pretty nice. Maybe throw in an option.

I dunno. I am agnostic on this issue. But the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.