It's been a slow couple of weeks for baseball fans in Twins Territory, as we wait for news of a third baseman sighting or maybe a Joe Mauer extension.  But this is something of an under-rated question for the off-season check list:  who will the Twins have as their fourth outfielder in 2010?

I'm already assuming that, left to right, Ron Gardenhire's outfield will be Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer.  You could jot Jason Kubel down as the fourth outfielder, but I'm happy to pencil him in as simply "DH".  Right now there is no obvious answer for that fourth guy because there's nobody left to backup Denard in center field.

Corey Patterson

Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 5-9

Weight: 175

Born: Aug 13, 1979

Remember this guy?  He had a couple of decent offensive seasons with the Cubs a few years back but his value was in his defense.  In 2004 he was one of the best center fielders around (33.8 UZR/150), and even outside of that season he was always a guy who fielded his position very well.  It seems he should be a lot older considering how long he's been playing, but the guy just turned 30.

Patterson wouldn't have been a bad option, if he hadn't already signed a minor league contract with the Mariners.  So who else fits the bill?

Crisp is just 30 as well, and managed to perform a pretty solid disappearing act in Kansas City last year.  He's played a lot of outfield over the years, and in general he's done it well.  Like Patterson he's not really a threat with the bat in his hands, and he hasn't been able to duplicate the success of his 2005 breakout season, but his value is in his glove and his ability to backup a position that nobody on the major league roster could do for the Twins.  At least, nobody that you'd want out there for any kind of an extended period of time.

Unfortunately it looks like Crisp will be off the market shortly, as the Athletics have been tied to him over the last few days.

Baldelli just turned 28 at the end of the season, and again it's hard to believe after all he's been through.  He's lucky to still be playing the game after his medical condition was mid-diagnosed, and he's a long time removed from finishing 3rd in rookie of the year voting (2003) and from his last solid offensive season (2006).  In spite of those red flags there is some upside with Baldelli; he's younger than most of the guys on this list, he's versatile and he's likely to come at a bargain rate.

I like Baldelli.  If only so I can cheer for a guy called Rocko (hey, no more Boof).  But clearly there's got to be a guy out there who doesn't have that kind of a rap sheet on health.

Pods is coming off one of his best seasons at the dish, and in spite of turning 34 in March is probably one of the best free agent players of the profile we're looking for.  That career .340 OBP isn't great, but there's a lot worse around.  Traditionally his defense isn't a good as most of the guys on this list, but he has two things that play in his favor:  he played all three outfield positions in 2009, and he's very fast.  Anytime you can close a gap, that's a good thing.  And like John Madden used to say, you can't teach speed.  Actually he probably still says that.

Podsednik is not a starter.  But he does have value as a fourth outfielder, and I think you could do a lot worse.

Chavez turns 32 in February and, in spite of being a decent contact hitter, doesn't have a lot of value at the plate.  He does have good speed, but (and you might be picking up on a trend here) his value lies in his defense.  Over the course of his career he's logged hundreds of innings at all three outfield positions and, as a general rule, he's played all three at a high level.

Obviously because of his offense (career 75 OPS+) this isn't a guy you want to expose a great deal at the plate.  Also, there should be some concern over how his knee is after tearing his ACL last June.  But as far as defensive options on this list go, Chavez might be the best one.

Joey Gathright

Boston Red Sox

Height: 5-10

Weight: 185

Born: Apr 27, 1982

Gathright is one of those guys who has some good tools, and either hasn't learned how to use them or they just aren't as good as we were told they were.  He had a great year in part time with the Royals in 2007, but in general has been underwhelming in terms of performance.  But again, he's quick and he plays all three outfield positions.  He's good at stealing bases.

This is a popular guy, and I don't really expect him to sign with a team that won't start him everyday, but at this point in his career I have to wonder if he's at a crossroads.  He'll turn 36 in June and, although he put up good offensive numbers for the Giants in '07 and '08, he's clearly not the player he was in his prime.

Winn can play all three outfield positions, and if he's looking to sign with a team with a legitimate chance for October, if he's looking to sign with a good team for a lesser role to get that shot at a ring, then maybe this is something he considers.  If the price is right, Winn would be my choice of anyone on this list.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

Then there's the internal option.  Pridie is younger than anyone on this list, just turning 26 in August.  He can backup Denard in center field, he has a little pop in his bat, and I have to believe he'll be playing with something to prove.  But he strikes out way too much at the minor league level, is allergic to getting on base, and has no major league track record to show what he can bring to a club with any certainty.

Would you sign any of these guys?  How much of a concern is a fourth outfielder to you at this point?

The non-tender deadline is tonight, at 11pm CST.

Over the course of the last couple of months, as we realized of just how large the Twins' 2010 payroll could be, we've speculated as to whether Minnesota would non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players in order to skim a few million off the top.  Boof Bonser, who actually rejected a one-year offer from the Twins not too long ago, seemed to be the first casualty during the Winter Meetings.

But now, Bill Smith tells Kelsie Smith (no relation, I'm sure), something very interesting:

"There will be limitations, but our ownership has set out what we think are certainly substantial funds to get our club ready for the start of the season."

I'm reading this in two possible ways.

1. Ownership has cleared funds "substantial" enough to ensure guys like Jesse Crain, Brendan Harris and Delmon Young aren't non-tendered.
2. Growing your payroll nearly $30 million dollars from Opening Day 2009 to Opening Day 2010 constitutes "substantial" funds.

Now if you want to lean toward option one, which is very intriguing and quite news-worthy if actually the case, then my question is this:  just exactly how much more is in the piggy bank?  As we've discussed before, keeping these guys in the fold on top of what's already in-house means a roughly $90 million dollar payroll.  Is it possible there's still room to add to what's already far-and-away a franchise-record payroll?

But if you want to lean toward option two, which actually might be a little more realistic if you read the rest of Kelsie's article, then for some guys (Crain, Harris and Young in particular) the game is still on.  The moves the Twins have already made make for a significant increase in payroll, and it's not like [Bill] Smith is coming out and making the meaning of "substantial funds" clear.

And then there's still the issue of Joe Mauer's extension, which I still believe with 100% certainty will be done before spring training begins.  If that scenario follows suit with the standard procedure that most extensions follow, then Joe will be playing for more dollars in 2010 than he's currently slated for.  So even if "substantial" means that there is still cash in the kitty, is there enough for money for Mauer on top of those arbitration-eligible players?

The good news is that we won't have to wait long to find out.  We'll have all of our answers by 11pm CST tonight.

5:25 pm - This from ESPN's Jayson Stark:  the Padres are making a hard push to move Kouzmanoff.

5:20 pm - HAPPY BIRTHDAY JON MARTHALER!

4:25 pm - Ummm....get this...Rich Harden?  Yeah.  He's signing with the Texas Rangers.

That's kind of a double-whammy for the Mariners, isn't it?  Bit of a shock, for sure.

3:50 pm - More Olney:  Rich Harden is on the verge of signing with...someone?  No news on who.  What are the chances that the mystery team is the Twins?  Right now the rotation is probably guaranteed in four of five spots, but this would be a huge signing for Minnesota with big-time repurcussions.

What say you?  Is it even possible?  Rumor has it that the Mariners have been hot on his trail, but it could be someone else...

2:55 pm - Buster Olney tweets that the Twins and Padres "have had several discussions about Kevin Kouzmanoff".

2:45 pm - Kelsie Smith tweets that that the Twins' talks with Mark DeRosa's agent were "preliminary".

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9:00 pm - Random update from Jon: I'll be on Seth Stohs' podcast about 9:25pm Central time, presumably to make jokes about Nick Punto showing up at the Winter Meetings to dive headfirst into Marirott lobby plants.

3:05 pm - Over at LEN III's blog he chats about Bonser's departure, done in order to create room for Pavano on the 40-man roster.  He also continues to speculate that Perkins could be traded, and brings up something that's been discussed here before but would be an immense surprise to me if it actally happened:  the potential for Jesse Crain to be non-tendered.

2:35 - Aaron Gleeman re-Tweets from Lyle Spencer:  Twins are interested in Robb Quinlan, and they aren't the only team to be so inclined.

2:20 pm - Peter Gammons is to leave ESPN following his assignment at the Winter Meetings.  I love Gammons, so this makes me sad.  Hopefully he continues to be a baseball correspondent in some form.

2:05 pm - As noted in the comments and courtesy of Kelsie Smith, the Twins have designated Boof Bonser for assignment.  Au revoir, Boof.  It's a shame it has to end this way, because I really do think he had something to offer this club.  Unfortunately he's become a casualty of depth; it's a shame he couldn't be traded.

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More photos » by Jennifer Simonson - AP

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Sure, it's a rumor-filled week that generally leads to nothing.  But it's still a rumor-filled week, and to me that equals fun.

Twins Needs

• Second Base
• Third Base
• Starting Pitcher
• Bench Depth
• Joe Mauer Extension

Between LEN III and Joe C., the Twins have been tied to a few names already this off-season:  Mark DeRosa, Rich Harden, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn and Orlando Hudson.  There has been little speculation fueled by comments from the front office, although this has been commonplace during the Bill Smith era.  Now entering his third Winter Meetings and in the best position to win since taking on the role of General Manager, it will be interesting to see if the rumors lead to anything concrete this season.

Obviously the Twins are still in the market for at least one infielder after picking up J.J. Hardy a few weeks ago, and the recent (and early) signings of Chone Figgins (four years, $36 million), Placido Polanco (three years, $18 million) and Marco Scutaro (two years, $12.5 million with an option for more) seem to set the market for starting infielders.  Considering the combination of age and history I feel like all three teams overpaid, on either years or dollars or both.

Last season at this time there was a lot of talk surrounding Casey Blake and Garrett Atkins, and there's been nothing quite like that this season.  This front office, and I've said it before, plays things notoriously close to the vest.  Sure, it might not make for interesting discussion fodder, but it serves the best interests of the team.

A vast majority of the time all of the rumors and speculation lead to absolutely nothing during the week of the Winter Meetings.  The common theme is for teams to read each other and, if possible, lay a foundation for things to happen over the following weeks.  But that doesn't mean we won't hear some interesting tidbits over the next few days.

Names of Interest (after the break)

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Six million?  That's alright.  Ten million?  That's outta sight.  Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise.  He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins.  I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars.  Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace.  But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano:  $1.5 M
Buehrle:  $14.0 M
Shields:  $1.5 M
Hamels:  $4.35 M
Dempster:  $8 M
Baker:  $750 K

Immediately you see the problem.  All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5  million.  Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration.  But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers.  Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs.  Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same.  Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with:  veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace.  So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value.  It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of.  If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high.  But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year.  If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year).  So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years.  Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation.  If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash.  As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

Mmmm...tryptophan...

Everyone finally waking up from that Thursday afternoon coma?  Fantastic.  There've been a few interesting notes of intrigue over the last few days, some of which have some concern with our Minnesota Twins, so let's check them out...

• The highest-profile player discussed over the last few days?  Rich Harden.  MLB.com's Kelly Theiser says the Twins have interest, which is good to hear.  Naturally any bets on the oft-injured ace would have to be hedged by the contract.  I do like the idea of bringing in Harden, on the right deal, because at the very least he gives Minnesota a little more depth with a high-end arm.  If and when he would eventually go down, the Twins would still have all the same arms available to replace him.
• Miguel Angel Sano?  No.  Miguel Angel Jean?  Si.  From the same mailbag, Theiser informs us that our Domincan uber-prospect will be using his real surname, as opposed to his mother's maiden name.  Batting second, for the Minnesota Twins, Miguel Jean...
• We've talked about Dan Uggla here at some length, as well as Ricky Nolasco, but there were rumors this week that the Marlins were trying to unload Josh Johnson as well.  As Ken Rosenthan notes those rumors have been dispelled, but for a few hours there my mind was working overtime.
  
• Joe C. flashes a preview of the Twins' spring training schedule.
• LEN III talks with Jake Mauer about a couple of good pitchers in the lower levels of the farm system.
• On Tuesday Pat Neshek updated his blog with some info on how his rehab is coming.  It sounds like he threw a simulated game of about 30pitches, and he was happy with his slider and his increasing velocity.
• Over at MLB Trade Rumors this morning I found out Nick Johnson is looking for a two-year deal.  There's no room for him in Minnesota, which is too bad because I wouldn't mind gamlbing on his infamous OBP skills.

Over in the UK they don't actually celebrate Thanksgiving...shocker, I know.  But yesterday I hosted and made my first ever Thanksgiving dinner for a bunch of friends, and it actually went pretty well.  After the break are just a couple of pics I took...it didn't turn out as awful as I thought it would!

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