SB Nation User Blog: Jesse

Glen Perkins Drops Grievance

Jesse — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:14:11 -0000

Glen Perkins Drops Grievance

Joe C. with the story.

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Cy Young Award

Jesse — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:16:52 -0000

So far Mike Scioscia has picked up AL Manager of the Year, and Elvis Andrus took home AL Rookie of the Year.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	C.C. Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

Any surprises here? I know I went Greinke-Hernandez one-two, but I can't recall if I voted Verlander or Halladay for the bronze medal.

Poll

Of the top three vote getters, who gets your AL Cy Young nod?

GM Meetings Day 3: Open Thread

Jesse — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:38:56 -0000

2:27 pm: Twins begin extension talks with Joe Mauer's agent.

1:10 pm: Some post-lunch news from around the league...

The Miama Herald thinks Dan Uggla is still likely to be dealt. So...no changes there.
It sounds like Rich Harden is healthy, at least. I'm sure the Twins are still an outside shot to sign him.
Remember when some of us really wanted the Twins to chase Garrett Atkins? Well, he might be had for next to nothing pretty soon.

2:45 am: That's right, I get an early start!

• It sounds like the Reds will need to cut payroll. With the Twins still in "adding" mode, would they take a hard look at starters like Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo? Or would they attempt to take a run at second baseman Brandon Phillips?
• We already knew that Carl Pavano would test the free agent market and that he would garner some interest from around the league, and it sounds like Cleveland could host a return.
• HOW DOES LIVAN HERNANDEZ KEEP GETTING WORK?
• Some people think the Phillies would rather chase Mark DeRosa than Adrian Beltre. If that’s true it’s one less major hurdle the Twins would have to overcome, if they have interest in him.
• Wednesay morning Joe Mauer question: If you’re offering Joe an extension this off-season, what’s your opening offer?

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:34:55 -0000

Check back periodically for updates...

4:00 pm: Afternoon updates from Joe C.

Congrats to Joe Mauer, who wins his second Gold Glove. Well deserved.
Apparently the GM's are expected to discuss intant replay? I had no idea. At any rate it hasn't been discussed yet.
Bonser, Neshek and Slowey have been reinstated from the 60-day DL.
Joe promises more tonight.

12:45 pm: Some news from around the league

It sounds like Jason Varitek will pick up his part of the option to stay with the Red Sox, which will be a favor to teams across the American League if he continues to hit like he has the last two seasons. Which he probably will. In related news, Tim Wakefield is never going to stop pitching. NEVER.
If the Twins want to put together a package for Roy Halladay to really make a run with an Ace in hand for 2010, it will have to be a package of "quality over quantity". Sorry, Cmath.
Lunch time trade question: would you trade Jesse Crain and Delmon Young to the Royals for David DeJesus? Is it a realistic scenario?

9:30 am: Catching up on the highlights from yesterday

• Carl Pavano wouldn’t mind sticking with the Twins as long as the money is right. Quotes from his agent, Tom O’Connell, imply that Pavano won’t settle for another contract asking for his client to re-establish himself. If he’d still be willing to take an incentive-laden contract at a reasonable price (say something like one year, $5 million with $500K for reaching 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings) with an option for a second year, I’d do that. He’s a Type-B free agent, but I’m not sure he’d make more than that taking the arbitration route (which the Twins are sure to offer).
• Twins General Manager Bill Smith has mentioned there will be interest in free agent starting pitchers during the off-season. I have to believe that only three spots (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey) are locked down.
• It sounds like Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t mind bringin back Orlando Cabrera as the team’s second baseman next season, but it seems highly unlikely the front office would follow through on that.
• The Orioles claimed Armando Gabino off waivers.
• Justin Huber cleared waivers, paving the way for his possible return to Rochester (or the Twins) in 2010.
• Juan Morillo has been added to the 40-man roster, bringing the current tally to 33 (not including 60-day DL guys Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey, or impending free agents Ron Mahay, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede, Pavano and Cabrera).
• Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors has posted his yearly series where he guesses where the top 50 free agents will end up. He thinks Adrian Beltre (number nine on his list) will end up in Minnesota.
• Before the Twins snapped up J.J. Hardy, a number of other teams had been in contact with the Brewers, including the Red Sox, Reds and Blue Jays.

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Rookie of the Year

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:58:00 -0000

Next round of the year's awards!

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

I feel pretty good about these results too because, if I remember correctly, I voted pretty closely here too. I want to say I went Andrus-Bailey-Porcello. Beckham's year was underwhelming, Wieters was disappointing considering the hype and, as the tally shows, there were really only two choices for top pick.

My only question: RICK PORCELLO IS JUST 20 YEARS OLD!

Okay, so it's not a question...

Poll

Of the top five, who would get your vote for AL Rookie of the Year?

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Manager of the Year

Jesse — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:29:26 -0000

Just like every year, the site managers of SB Nation get together and cast votes for the season's four biggest awards: Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young. Today, the results are in for MoY.

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

I have a hard time arguing the findings on this list, because if I recall correctly the top three coaches are the ones I actually voted for. (It was either that, or Gardenhire-Wakamatsu-Washington...it was a while ago.) Even if Don Wakamatsu had won, I wouldn't complain--he got one hell of a performance from a team that probably shouldn't have had the kind of season they had.

Poll

Of the top three choices, who gets your vote for AL Manager of the Year?

How Good Is J.J. Hardy's Defense?

Jesse — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

4 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy leaps over Los Angeles Dodgers' James Loney to turn a double play on a ball hit by Russell Martin during the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, July 11, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Browse more photos »

The biggest question mark in J.J. Hardy's game, oddly enough, isn't whether or not he can bounce back offensively. It's whether or not his defensive reputation is deserved.

It's likely that Hardy's bat will rebound to some extent in 2010, and it's that upside that makes his pick-up as intriguing as it is. But the constant, the "guaranteed" value, was in the premium defense he supposedly provides at a premium defensive position. Hardy has been one of the league's best shortstops over the last few years. If you believe the numbers.

FanGraphs has been running a series recently about the best and worst defenders in baseball over the last three years combined. As Matthew Carruth states: "Rankings are done by adding a player's UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it's removing the grading curve". Or, all things equalized, Carruth gives us the best and the worst. Hardy finished third overall, as the highest-rated shortstop, and is calculated to have been worth 48.7 runs above average with the glove.

For the record, that is stellar.

But since the announcement of this deal on Friday we've started to hear strains of dissenting thought, largely from Brewers fans who have stopped by to deliver their first-hand impressions of Hardy in the field.

From Cheeseandcorn:

Also, he’s slower than you think he is. Way slower. Like, he will continually amaze you with his epic slowness.

This from backtocali:

The numbers used to measure defensive prowess cannot be accurately used when talking about JJ Hardy. He is a very solid shortstop, but do not be fooled, he is not elite. His range is downright awful. He has a solid glove and a very good arm, but if he is not in the exact perfect defensive position, he is worthless.

Another, this time from Ted Simmons Speed Camp:

Hardy IS extremely slow. I never thought his range at SS was all that great, but he maximizes it with good positioning, a soft glove and a great arm.

Push all three of these comments together and we get a fairly comprehensive idea of what Brewers fans saw when they watched Hardy field his position: good glove, good arm, bad range, slow. Two up, two down.

I do find those statements interesting because I do place value on intelligent observations, which these were. But when I evaluate a player in any capacity, I do have a tendency to lean towards what the numbers tell me. Not because I don't believe my eyes, or anyone else's, but because numbers aren't subjective and make visual impressions quantifiable. Ultimately, whether you believe what the defensive metrics tell you about any player or not, the numbers come from somewhere. Which means there's probably a very legitimate reason why Hardy has been tabbed as one of the best shortstops, and best defensive players in general, over the last few years.

Let's skim past UZR/150 for a moment and go to the numbers that strictly talk about range, since that's the specific part of Hardy's defense in question. Using numbers from THT, we'll include Hardy with some of the other great defensive shortstops in baseball (and Derek Jeter because, really, why not) to see if the observations of those Brewers fans match up with cold, hard, objective numbers.

Name	Innings	RZR	OOZ	INN:OZ
Cesar Izturis	2590	.852	122	21.2
Adam Everett	1841	.851	87	21.2
Jose Reyes	3156	.849	110	23.9
Elvis Andrus	1238	.846	45	27.5
Yunel Escobar	2676	.841	124	21.6
Alex Gonzalez	1820	.839	63	28.9
Ryan Theriot	3436	.834	111	31.0
Brendan Ryan	1248	.833	77	16.2
Nick Punto	1231	.831	47	26.2
J.J. Hardy	3488	.826	166	21.0
Jack Wilson	2754	.826	163	16.8
Derek Jeter	3836	.819	89	43.1
Jimmy Rollins	3973	.818	166	23.9
Rafael Furcal	2788	.817	130	21.5
Jason Bartlett	3444	.798	175	19.7

INN = Innings played at shortstop 2007 - 2009
RZR = Percentage of balls-in-zone that were converted into outs; average is about .790 - .810
OOZ = Plays made outside of a shortstop's defensive zone
INN:OZ = An average of how often a play is made outside of the shortstop's zone

A full time shortstop plays somewhere between 1250 and 1400 innings at his position per season; Ryan was a rookie in 2009 but has the same number of innings as Punto, whose totals represent three years combined.

According to the above breakdown, which is about as objective as defensive range metrics can get, Hardy's range is fine. In fact it's better than that, it's above average...consistently. You could chalk that up to (like the above commenters mentioned) great positioning, but a guy who makes plays on positioning alone isn't going to make 166 plays outside of his defensive zone, either. Jeter is the model of this theory--he's the guy who's reliable for making plays on most of the balls he touches, but he does it by playing deep. It robs him of the ability to make plays on balls he shouldn't be making plays on, unless he's chasing it into the shallow outfield.

Bartlett, on the other hand, is the guy on the other side of the curve. His superior range allows him to make plays like few other shortstops in baseball, but he's prone to mistakes more often than some of the other guys on this list. Certainly some of it can be chalked up to bad positioning, but we know there's a little more to it than that.

Looking at older range metrics, like RF/G or RF/9, Hardy comes in around the middle of the pack. Indeed, scrolling through a list of defensive metrics, the worst you will see Hardy ever being is middle of the pack.

Conclusions

So, where does this leave us? We can't ignore the defensive metrics, because all players are graded equally. By the same token we can't just dismiss first-hand accounts...especially since, like most of you, I really haven't had the opportunity to see Hardy play on a day-to-day basis.

The obvious and most probable outcome is that both groups are right. Hardy's speed likely inhibits his range in the field, which is partially made up for by great positioning and an ability to consistently and reliably make outs in situations where he's expected to make them. Is his positioning so great that it allows him to challenge for the most plays made outside his zone every year? Probably not, which implies that it's more than just positioning that allows him to excel and get to that sick number of balls he has no business getting to.

I expect that when we finally get to see Hardy play everyday next summer, we will be a little surprised at how he moves. But that's where the numbers come in. He's obviously making a ton of plays, more than a vast majority of shortstops in baseball, and he's earned his reputation (on paper and on grass) as one of the best defensive infielders in the game today.

Any questions we might have will (obviously) get answers once we actually watch him play. Until then I'm content knowing that we did get a very good defensive shortstop in return for Carlos Gomez.

Ultimately it doesn't matter how you get the out as long as you get it. It's just like picking up the win--just get it. And that's something J.J. Hardy is apparently very, very good at. Both sides agree on that.

A Little Perspective

Jesse — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 01:18:35 -0000

A Little Perspective

You probably know of the tragedy at Fort Hood this week. Here's something from a soldier, in his own words, from SB Nation site The Phinsider.

Twins Pick Up Michael Cuddyer's 2011 Option

Jesse — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:28:09 -0000

And here I was, writing about whether or not the Twins should actually do it....

Of course my conclusion was an adament "YES, YES THE TWINS SHOULD PICK UP CUDDY'S 2011 OPTION". Clearly I have a nose for these things.

Cuddyer's 2011 option is worth $10.5 million, but with the buyout an even million in its own right the Twins are essentially paying our right fielder $9.5 million for his services two years from now. Of course we all know that, as one of the team's leaders, Cuddyer hit .276/.342/.520 this past summer with career highs in home runs and slugging percentage.

There will be questions about whether or not Cuddles is worth that much money as a 32-year old right fielder whose range leaves a bit to be desired, but as far as I'm concerned this was a quality decision, and one that was more or less unavoidable.

This decision raises Minnesota's 2011 committments to roughly $42.6 million dollars: Justin Morneau ($15 MM), Joe Nathan ($11.25 MM), Cuddyer ($10.5 MM) and Scott Baker ($5.00 MM), as well as a $500K buyout for Nick Punto and a $350K buyout for Jason Kubel.

Michael Cuddyer

#5 / First Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 27, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Michael Cuddyer	153	588	93	162	34	7	32	94	54	118	6	1	.276	.342	.520

Poll

If you're Bill Smith, did you just pick up Cuddy's 2011 option?

Saturday Morning Poll: How Do You Feel Now?

Jesse — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:31:48 -0000

More photos » by Steven Senne - AP

We'll never see his bat-smelling in a Twins uniform again...(sniff)

Browse more photos »

Happy? Sad? Hung-over?

After yesterday morning's blockbuster trade that sent Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for J.J. Hardy, we had a pretty extensive conversation on not just the merits of both players but also the fall-out for both teams.

But now that you've had a night to think about it, how do you feel? Are you (like me) still happy that Hardy is the new Snoopy? Or are a little broken up over losing Captain Zoom?

Poll

SB Nation User Blog: Jesse

Glen Perkins Drops Grievance

Glen Perkins Drops Grievance

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Cy Young Award

Of the top three vote getters, who gets your AL Cy Young nod?

GM Meetings Day 3: Open Thread

2:27 pm: Twins begin extension talks with Joe Mauer's agent.

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Rookie of the Year

Of the top five, who would get your vote for AL Rookie of the Year?

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Manager of the Year

Of the top three choices, who gets your vote for AL Manager of the Year?

How Good Is J.J. Hardy's Defense?

Conclusions

A Little Perspective

A Little Perspective

Twins Pick Up Michael Cuddyer's 2011 Option

Michael Cuddyer

#5 / First Base / Minnesota Twins

If you're Bill Smith, did you just pick up Cuddy's 2011 option?

Saturday Morning Poll: How Do You Feel Now?

What say you?