SB Nation User Blog: Jessica Bader

Fish in a Stolen Barrel: Fun with the Mets.com Mailbag

Jessica Bader — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 04:03:06 -0000

With the winter meetings coming up, it seems like a good time to revisit the glories of offseasons past, right? At least that's the idea that one fan writing to Marty Noble had earlier this week.

Which offseason do you think was the best in the Mets' history? With Kevin McReynolds and David Cone coming aboard, 1986-87 comes to mind. What's your opinion?
-- Michael C., Fort Drum, N.Y.

That gave good ol' Marty an opening to reminisce about the moves that built the team in the '80s, fairly interesting stuff. It's when he dabbles in evaluation of more recent offseasons that we enter "seriously, WTF?" territory:

Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran signed on in the 2004-05 offseason. But, to me, free-agent signings lack the cachet of trades. The Mets stole their right fielder and catcher, Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, from the Nationals and acquired Johan Santana last year. Not too bad an offseason in 2007-08.

Wait, what was that again?

The Mets stole their right fielder and catcher, Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, from the Nationals

It took me a little time to respond to that sentence, especially since I knocked the mouse off of my desk while I was reading it. Clearly, Noble is either incapable of admitting he was wrong, has a really odd definition of stealing, or thinks that we can't remember things that happened last year. Note his omission of what the Mets gave up in this alleged heist. I've already vented my extreme dislike of the Lastings Milledge trade on more than one occasion, and the main points of that argument still stand. A year ago, I thought the idea that a team that traded a promising young outfielder for the guy he'd be if he aged 6 years without developing any further as a hitter and a catcher whose defense allegedly made up for his inability to hit his way out of a paper bag (as long as you don't count "keeping the ball from skipping to the backstop" as defense or anything) was the one committing the theft was absurd. Knowing what we know now, that this "win-now" move failed at its stated goal, to defend it, let alone praise it as some sort of awesome genius move, is insanity.

But wait, there's more! Noble concludes that the 1998-1999 offseason was the best in Mets history. I'm not about to argue with that; just like pretty much every fan of my generation, the mere mention of the 1999 team and its heroes is enough to bring out my warm and fuzzy side.

But no Mets offseason compares with 1998-99. Mike Piazza could have demanded a trade, but re-signed. The Mets then signed Robin Ventura as a free agent, which allowed them to move Edgardo Alfonzo to second base; signed Pat Mahomes, who produced an 8-0 record; traded for Roger Cedeno, who scored 90 runs; signed Rickey Henderson, who scored 89 and emboldened Cedeno; signed Armando Benitez, who replaced John Franco when the incumbent closer injured his finger in July; and signed Orel Hershiser, who won 13 games.

What I am about to argue with is the idea that, amidst the signings of Piazza (and being eligible for free agency != "could have demanded a trade") and Ventura and Rickey (isn't it funny how just about every big move Noble is citing from the best offseason is a free-agent signing, just three paragraphs after he said they "lack the cachet of trades"?), we should also be celebrating the likes of Pat Mahomes, who was pretty much a textbook case of "it's better to be lucky than good." Mahomes walked 37 batters (5 intentionally) in 63 2/3 innings but got away with it thanks to a .224 BABIP. Of course, he did go 8-0 and everyone knows that wins are the most important measure when it comes to evaluating a middle reliever, right?

Hot Stove Conversations: Starting Pitching

Jessica Bader — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:52:35 -0000

The flurry of off-season trading has already begun, and we're just a few days away from free agency, still a theoretical pile of rumors at this point in time, kicking off in a way that will resemble your friendly neighborhood big-box store at 5:30 AM the day after Thanksgiving (hopefully with less violence). There are quite a few departments the Mets may want to do some shopping in, but the place where they're most likely to get into a tug-of-war over some shiny new toy is Aisle 1 - Pitching. Wondering what your favorite Mets fan bloggers think about some of the big names on the market? Just overly interested in reading someone else's IM conversation? Either way, you've come to the right place....

Eric Simon (10:20:27 PM): Well, the Mets have two holes in their rotation. What's your plan?
Jessica Bader (10:21:47 PM): See if Ken Williams is open to being robbed blind by both New York teams (Javier Vazquez) and try to retain Ollie
Eric (10:22:18 PM): Okay, why Ollie over, say, Derek Lowe?
Jessica (10:24:45 PM): Ollie is significantly younger and strikes more batters out. They're both Boras clients seeking expensive multi-year deals, so that issue is a wash.
Eric (10:24:58 PM): Well, not necessarily. Ollie will be looking for more years and more money. So is Ollie a better deal at 5/$70 than Lowe is at 3/$40? Or whatever. Mix-and-match those numbers. Also, Lowe's incredible groundball rate can't be discounted, and he has very good control, too.
Jessica (10:27:00 PM): True, and we don't know how Citi Field will play, although if it's like Shea there won't be a penalty for being a flyball pitcher
Eric (10:27:24 PM): Well, any more of a penalty than just being a flyball pitcher to begin with, though that probably doesn't offset their respective flyball/groundball tendencies. Lowe's also more consistent, for whatever that's worth. Ollie at his best is a better pitcher, but he certainly isn't always at (or near) his best.
Jessica (10:30:09 PM): But generally speaking, isn't the typical BABIP of fly balls less than that of ground balls? The harm comes from fly balls that can leave the yard or become extra-base hits. Pitcher-friendly dimensions + Carlos Beltran in center mitigates some of that harm. (Incidentally, this could make it easier for the Mets to keep Ollie, as teams with less favorable conditions for a flyball pitcher wouldn't get as much out of him and therefore probably wouldn't want to offer him as much money.)
Eric (10:31:16 PM): They do, for sure. Flyball pitchers are a bigger problem if you play in a hitters park and/or your outfield defense is atrocious. Alright, if we submit that the flyball question isn't a concern, do Perez's higher strikeout rates make up for his massive control disadvantage to Lowe? All told, Lowe's strikeout-to-walk ratio was far better than Perez's.
Jessica (10:37:10 PM): Good point
Eric (10:37:29 PM): Then again, Perez is nine years younger. Though Perez is also extremely volatile. These guys are about as different as you can get, eh?
Jessica (10:39:10 PM): Yeah, about the only thing they have in common is that they're both going to get big money. It's almost like the debate isn't about those two specific pitchers but two different philosophies of building a rotation
Eric (10:45:15 PM): Though it's far from the entire story, there is something to be said for consistency. When Ollie is dominant he's as good as anyone -- anyone -- in the league. Then again, other times he goes out there and can't escape the second inning.
Jessica (10:50:15 PM): I don't think the consistency vs. volatility argment is as cut-and-dried as it might appear based on the reputations of the two pitchers. I went through the 2008 gamelogs for Lowe and Perez in order to whip up some game score histograms:

Lowe's mean game score is higher (55.09 to 51.68), but Ollie actually has the smaller standard deviation (17.08 to 17.83), and they each had seven outings with a game score of 35 or lower.

So, Eric and I have had our say, but there's still room for a lot more discussion/persuasion. There are compelling cases for and against each of these pitchers, and the debate is sure to rage on long past the inking of deals. Let's hear your take.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Oliver Perez	10-7	34	34	0	0	0	0	194.0	167	100	91	24	105	180	4.22	1.40

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Derek Lowe	14-11	34	34	1	0	0	0	211.0	194	84	76	14	45	147	3.24	1.13

Poll

Which of these starting pitchers should the Mets sign?

Derek Lowe

56 votes

Oliver Perez

16 votes

Both

32 votes

Neither

9 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

More Fish in the Barrel: Fun with the mets.com Mailbag

Jessica Bader — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 03:04:21 -0000

This week? Not particularly fun, to say the least. The offseason is now officially upon us, free agency filing has begun, and the Reality-Challenged Trade Proposals are about to increase in number while growing even crazier. However, for the Mets fan that writes to Marty Noble, there are more pressing issues to tackle:

I think the Mets should scale back the orange and go back to a more traditional style -- blue and white, very little orange, and also start marketing the "NY" logo a lot more. They should also stop marketing the scripted Mets logo. Enough with that! With all these changes moving into there new home Citi Field, I think it would be a great move to ease the frustrations of the past two seasons. This would show Mets fans -- along with free-agents-to-be -- that Mets ownership is committed to straightening this thing out. What are your thoughts?
-- James S., No location given

I've heard the arguments for and against the black alternate jersey (I tend to lean towards "for"), and I would imagine that I dislike the white jerseys sans pinstripes more than most other Mets fans. But taking the orange out of the Mets' color scheme? That's a new one. I would imagine that the fan who wrote in either isn't aware of the reasons behind the team colors or is a die-hard Brooklyn Dodgers fan who wants to eliminate traces of the Giants from the team's image as the Mets move to Ebbets 2.0 Citi Field.

Next up, we have a really difficult question to ponder:

Is it obvious that the Mets messed up with Scott Kazmir?
-- Fred W., Long Beach, N.Y.

Is the sky blue? Do umpires blow calls? Did you eat some of the candy you bought to give to trick-or-treaters?

That being said, I'm not a big fan of Noble's answer:

Isn't there a statue of limitations on lamenting poor trades? Anyone care to chastise the club for dealing Nolan Ryan? How about for bringing in Marvelous Marv Throneberry? This is a case of "Get over it." The Kazmir trade blew up in the Mets' faces. Victor Zambrano was a quite unremarkable pitcher. But let's move on and find something more recent to lament. Or praise.

So, because a bad trade took place four years ago, we're not allowed to talk about it anymore? As much as I get annoyed by the way a certain subset of the fanbase speaks of Kazmir in tones usually reserved for The Former Significant Other You Wish You Hadn't Dumped, the trade still has an impact on the shape of the team we see on the field, and it's fair to want to talk about the positive and negative aspects of that impact.

We also have two candidates for our Reality-Challenged Trade Proposal of the Week:

What are the chances of the Mets acquiring George Sherrill from the Orioles? I don't think spending so much money for K-Rod will best serve them because so many other areas need to be addressed. Maybe they can package Argenis Reyes, Daniel Murphy and Angel Pagan (I know he's injury prone, but regardless) to get Sherrill and Brian Roberts, and just release Castillo, his four-year contract notwithstanding. Your thoughts?
-- Alvin D., Brentwood, N.Y.

You have mentioned that you doubt the Mets have enough ammunition and would be reluctant to trade for Jake Peavy. What if the Mets were to package John Maine, Fernando Martinez and Shawn Bowman for Peavy? Yes, you lose Maine -- who is still a young and affordable pitcher -- along with your top outfield prospect, but I think Peavy -- who is signed for another five years-- would be a great addition to the rotation. Also, there are a lot of free agents available for the outfield that would be worth signing such as Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Rocco Baldelli.
-- Chris V., Norwalk, Conn.

I think the first trade takes the crazy prize, as the package suggested is probably not enough for Roberts and definitely too much for Sherrill (check out that lovely 5.57 BB/9). Of course, I can't completely dismiss any plan that involves ditching Luis Castillo, so it's got that going for it.

Fish, Barrel, Shoot: Fun with the mets.com Mailbag

Jessica Bader — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 01:55:23 -0000

I have a very low tolerance for the utterance of stupidity. Therefore, I tend to avoid listening to WFAN for anything other than game broadcasts and never turn on my TV for a night game before 6:30 lest the final moments of Loud Mouths induce an urge to fling my remote at the screen. There is one exception to this rule, however: the (usually) weekly mailbag column on mets.com, a mixture of often absurd questions from Mets fans, answered in often equally absurd fashion by friendly neighborhood beat writer Marty Noble. It's the gift that keeps on giving, providing a number-happy, snarky Mets fan with the material to indulge her most Fire Joe Morgan-esque impulses. Follow along with this week's mailbag as I poke some fun at the contents:

The first question is from a reader who wasn't happy with Marty naming David Wright as the Mets' most valuable player. Noble starts off with a fairly reasonable defense, reminding us that having a bad batting average with runners in scoring position this year does not negate Wright being really, really good at baseball. But then he takes it a bit too far:

The MVP ballots distributed to the 60 voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America include few instructions, but they do urge the constituency to consider the numbers of games played by candidates. Wright played in 160, Santana made 34 starts.

This is the sort of argument that's usually advanced to justify excluding pitchers from MVP consideration, and quite frankly it's a load of bull. If you think of baseball as a series of pitcher/batter confrontations, it stands to reason that the more showdowns a player participates in, the more opportunities he has to impact the outcome of a game. In 2008, David Wright had 736 plate appearances. Johan Santana faced 964 batters.

There's a reason so few starters win MVP Awards, or even place among the leading candidates.
...

And by the way, when Santana was elected unanimously as the American League Cy Young Award winner in 2006, he placed seventh in the MVP balloting, one place behind teammate Joe Mauer, and well behind MVP Justin Morneau, also a teammate.

There's a message in that.

That message has nothing to do with whether a player is deserving of MVP consideration and everything to do with how those who get to vote see things. (Also, if one wishes to argue for the wisdom of those who cast MVP ballots, referencing the year that Morneau won despite having two clearly superior teammates probably isn't the best example to use.)

Later on, there's a question about the coaching staff:

Who do you think will round out the coaching staff for 2009? It's important to bring in more qualified people. Luis Aguaya did a bad job. Some others I would like to see get a chance would be Gary Carter, Wally Bachman or maybe Bobby Valentine -- still one of the best baseball minds -- as a bench coach.
-- Stephen W., Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

I'm not sure what's funnier: the misspellings of Aguayo and Backman or the idea of Bobby V. returning to the Mets as a bench coach, something that seems about as likely as a snowball fight in hell.

Another reader asks Marty for his take on the "Ryan Church doesn't like playing in New York" rumor, and I'm still trying to figure out what Noble means by

In a word, no. If I he was uncomfortable, he performed quite well before the second concussion.

Finally, we have our Reality-Challenged Trade Proposal of the Week:

I would like the Mets to forget about Carlos Delgado (old and better-suited for the AL) and Oliver Perez (not worth the money he will demand). I'd prefer they pursue Mark Teixeira as a free agent and a trade for Jake Peavy. The money would be better spent for a younger, switch-hitting first baseman, and since the Padres are shopping Peavy, who likes the NL, why not take a shot?
-- Shawn, Albany, N.Y.

There's no way that the Mets can acquire Peavy without doing something utterly stupid and self-destructive, so naturally we'll be hearing plenty of rumors about him all winter.