I'm considering a trade in a dynasty league where I would gain Mat Latos in return for Jurickson Profar. 40-man rosters, 16 teams, permanent keepers.

My current SS is Tulo, 2nd is Weeks, and my MI is Neil Walker. Rest of the offense is pretty good with Pujols, Longoria, Cargo, Holliday, Choo, M Montero,

Starting pitching (1475 innings max) is Verlander, Felix, Hamels, Garza, Beachy, Liriano, Morrow, and Peavy. Not a lot in the minors other than Andy Oliver. Relievers are Kimbrel, Mariano Rivera, Walden, Storen, and Frank Francisco. I would ideally like to trade Profar in a deal for a stud first baseman (to replace Billy Butler) but no such deals exists right now.

So, would you trade Profar for Latos, given all of this info, or hold on to Profar in hopes that A) He can replace Walker at MI in a few years or B) Wait to see what injuries happen and move him during the season

I'm in a 16-team, 40-man roster dynasty league. We can keep all players permanently with no drawbacks.  I went into the season thinking my team was in really solid shape: My infield was ridiculous with Pujols, Weeks, Tulo at SS, hanley at MI, Longoria at 3rd.  My OF wasn't quite as stacked, but I thought it was solid enough with Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Young, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Seth Smith, and Grady Sizemore ready to come in and help

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Someone just proposed the following trade to me:

Wil Myers, my 1st rounder in next year's draft, and John Buck 

For Carlos Santana

16 team points-based league that values walks and power, and puts less value on steals, runs, and RBI's.

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Zack Braddock was a guy who got a lot of hype around these parts earlier in the season.  He's always had a good arm, but injury issues have held him back, and have forced him into a role as a bullpen arm.  He's had his fair share of struggles, but I wanted to get a discussion going on his season in 2010 and see what we think the future holds for him

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Lot of games are underway / done, so I thought I'd start one

Jesus Montero

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A month or so ago, Dewey posted his new top prospects list, with comps for some players.  Among them, Grady Sizemore was listed as a comp for Brett Jackson, and the community reaction was almost overwhelmingly against this comp.  I thought that was weird, but didn't think all that much of it.  I thought we should wait until we had at least a half season's worth of stats, and so I waited...

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Note: Before I write the actual content of this post, I realize Delmon hasn't been in the minors for a long time.  However, I think he's still fair game, as he's a young hitter who is still developing, and his development trend is extremely interesting to me.  He's still only 24 years old (Ha!  I had no idea) and his progression this year is totally relevant to what we talk about on this site

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AAA: Jeff Manship vs Brad Lincoln, Hector Rondon, Matt Maloney

AA: Jake McGee, Mike Minor, Mark Rogers, Randy Boone, Stephe Fife, Clayton Tanner, Daryl Thompson

A+: Matt Moore, Ross Seaton, Nick Hagadone, Brock Huntzinger, Tim Melville, Jeff Locke,

A: Erasmo Ramirez, Charles Brewer.  SAL is off, not a lot of names on the mound I recognize

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Wow, starting 2 of these in one week!

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Holy crap, I haven't started one of these in over two years.  This is kind of exciting

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John Bowker is a rightfield prospect for the Giants who put up a .255/.300/.408 line in 326 at bats in the majors last year as a 24 year old rookie.  Those numbers aren't terribly impressive, but they're not bad at all for a rookie who wasn't a highly touted prospect.  The giants let him start this year in the minors, and he's clobbered the life out of the ball

In AAA this season, Bowker is hitting .345/.446/.609, showing considerably better patience at the plate than last year, whether at the ML level or at AAA.  He has a 53/52 BB/K ratio, 38.7% XBH%, 15.7% BB rate, and even throws in some steals, albeit it at only a 67% pace (10 steals to 5 CS)

The giants are one of the worst teams in the majors for production out of their LF, RF, and 1st base positions.  Bowker is tearing the cover off the ball.  How long does it take for Bowker to come back to the majors, and once he does, how will he hit?  Can someone who saw him play in the majors last season comment on what his weaknesses were?

(side note, I don't know a thing about his defense.  The steals makes me think he is at minimum a decent athlete with pretty good range, but that's just a guess)

I'd like to have a discussion with everyone about what a prospect list ACTUALLY means to you, and what priorities you look at when you rank players.  This may seem like a very silly question, but I think it is what ultimately drives a lot of the discussion on the community prospect rankings, whether people are aware of it or not.

To me, my prospect ranking list basically says "If I had to place money on the combination of risk and value for these players, this is what order that risk/value combination would look like"

In other words, I look at it like any investment

I made an analogy over the weekend to JP Morgan or any other investing firm, and the more I think about it, the more it holds true.  Imagine if JP Morgan were go come out and upgrade a bunch of Penny stocks as "must buys" with the idea that there is much more to gain from these Penny stocks than there is from blue chippers, whose value may be constant but they are likely not going to explode

Sometimes I feel like our prospect lists are putting Penny stocks at the top to see which one will explode, knowing that for each one that does there are 7 or 8 that will implode.  If we do it with prospects, we can always say "See!  I told you (XYZ rookie league player with 30 Ab's but huge tools) would be awesome!".  But if we did it this way with our money, we would never say "Phew, I lost 70% of my portfolio's value, but at least I got that Joe and Bill's automotive right on the dot!"

So what is a prospect list for you?  Trying to find the guys with the highest reward?  A combination of risk and reward?  

This topic has been on my mind for a while, so I decided to throw it out to the community in hopes of generating some discussion

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This time last year, there was a large group of people who thought Adam Lind was an A- prospect, based mostly on his performance in the minors in 2006, where he hit 330/394/556 between AA and AAA

This year in the majors, however, he hit 238/278/400, looking completely over-matched for most of the season

Despite his low batting average and very low Walk Rate, he still hit for a very nice amount of power (11 HR in 89 games) with an IsoPower of .162, which isn't too bad for a rook

So what can we expect from Lind moving forward?  Was this a bump in the road, or was his high K rate catching up to him?  Is next year a breakout year for Mr Lind?

Hey guys, I'm sorry for doing this, but there's a trade proposal that I'm waivering on and I want the board's opinion.  

I've been offered Travis Snider in return for Mike Pelfrey and Wladimir Balentien.  I have really good pitching depth and probably wouldn't use Pelfrey.  

I'm not sure if I believe in Balentien's season, since it kind of came out of nowhere.  

Snider is a potential stud, and I'm strongly considering pulling the trigger, even knowing he's a teenager below AA

BTW, this is a points league, not a roto league.  

Thanks in advance

Jed Lowrie is a SS prospect for the Red Sox, drafted in the supplemental round in 2005 out of Stanford.  Lowrie dropped in the MLB draft, having a "disappointing" .317 / .416 /.594 (1.010 OPS) junior season following up his 1.239 OPS sophomore season at Stanford

After being drafted, Lowrie hit a respectable .328 / .429 / .448 in 2005 in 201 AB for The Lowell Spinners in Low A.  

In 2006, Lowrie had a pretty bad ankle injury, missed 5 weeks, came back in time to play 97 games, but slumped badly after his injury.  It was obvious his ankle injury bothered him all year.  In August, he put up a .327 / .380 / .529 line to finish up the season, making fans (like me) optimistic)

2007 was a big year for Lowrie, starting in AA Portland.  His first month was terrible, but he went on a recent hot streak and his current line for the 2007 season stands at .293 / .432 / .463, with a 40/30 BB/K ratio

Some things obviously stand out, like his fantastic plate discipline (.140 IsoOBP) and a very very good BB/K ratio.  He doesn't have a lot of HR power, but has plenty of gap power.  

His defense, while not his strong suit, is enough to play SS at the major league level, though it will likely be average at best.  

So my question to the board is, what kind of prospect is Lowrie?  Was 2006 an abberation and the result of his ankle injury, or is he simply not good enough to make it in the majors?  Where does he rank among SS prospects, considering his success in AA, plate discipline, ability to stay at SS, and strong college pedigree?

I think it would be really great if there were some way to keep a history of all the Crystal balls, Prospect Retros, Community Projections, Prospect Smackdowns, and all of the other features on the site (ahem cheesecake ahem)

If there was a link right above the list of diaries that would take you to a list of all of the features you've done, I think it would add a lot to the site, give us a chance to go back and read them, rather than wonder if you've ever done a prospect Retro on Eric Milton and search the entire site for him.  

Just a suggestion, I think it would be easy to do and beneficial.

I hate myself for doing this, but I need help on a potential trade.  Someone wants Matt Garza from me, and is willing to give me Lind or Loney.  If it was loney, it would be straight up.  If it was Lind, he would want something else (probably someone like Truinfel, jesus Montero, Angel Beltre, or Elvis Andrus.  

The thing about this league is that we need to fill 5 outfield spots and there are 16 teams (you do the Math)

I have Hermida, Delmon Young, Markakis, Milledge, Butler, and Carlos Gonzalez as my outfielders, and the following pitchers (1475 IP limit):

Felix, Hamels, Garz, Hirsh, Broxton, Zumaya, Pelfrey, Liriano, Scott Baker, Betances, Andrew miller, Troy Patton, Michael Bowden, Brandon Erbe, Delois Guerra, Cesar Carrillo and Jon Lester

I'm tempted to, just because of my pitching depth and the tremendous value of outfielders in this league.  WHat does everyone here think?  I appreciate the help in advance

With so many smart baseball people on this site, with so many fantasy players on this site, doesn't it seem like our very own dynasty league should have formed by now?  I think it would be a fun (and challenging) thing to do.  

I know I wouldn't want to be comissioner cuz I don't have the time, but would someone want to run this?  I mean, you can imagine the trash talking between Josh and Crimson extend to another theater?  I think it would be high comedy.  

Anyways, just a thought.  

The below Longoria / Brignac diary got me thinking about my dynasty league situation, and I need some different perspectives on which direction I should go in for our amateur draft.  I know, fantasy questions are the devil, etc, blah blah.  Hopefully this turns into a real baseball conversation that has some fantasy implications.  

First the details on the league: 16 teams, 40-man rosters, points based system which is slightly tilted towards a SABR-metric stance (in other words, walks are worth more than typical small-world points, saves are devalued, etc)

I have the first two picks in our upcoming amateur draft, and I'm trying to decide who to pick.  I've narrowed it down to these three players, but I don't know which ones to pick: Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, and Evan Longoria.  This is where I need everyone's help.  

My pitching depth took some hits recently.  I traded elbert and Humberto Sanchez for Liriano about 10 hours before Liriano hurt his elbow.  That was great.  I traded Buchholz in a deal for Billy Butler, and lost Jon Lester to cancer (speedy returns and good wishes).  My current pitching staff (minors included) is as follows:

Felix, Hamels, Garza, Hirsh, Broxton, Zumaya, Pelfrey, Liriano, Scott Baker, Jon Lester, Troy Patton, Michael Bowden, Brandon Erbe, Deolis Guerra, Cesar Carrillo

I currently don't have any major league 3rd basemen, but I have Braun in the minors.  Longoria might move to second, but I'm all set in MI and 2nd with Weeks, Drew, and Tulowitski.  

So here's the question, first two picks, anyone in the draft available, in my situation, who do you grab?  I'm worried about my pitching depth, but Braun is the only third baseman I have (other than  Angel Villalona).  Does your answer change if I acquire Edwin Encarnacion for my second round pick?

Sorry for the long / fantasy post, but I'm having trouble coming to a conclusion.  Thanks in advance.  

That's right, I'm asking a fantasy question that's been bugging me for over a week.  I just can't make a decision on this one, so I need our collective wisdom to help me decide.  

I've been offered Tulowitski for the first overall pick in our ammy draft, a.k.a Evan Longoria, and I can't decide whether or not to pull the trigger.  In our league we have one SS, one second base, and one middle infielder position.  I have Drew at the SS position, Weeks at 2nd, and BJ Upton at the middle infield position.  But now, Upton is playing 3rd (or possibly the outfield in the future), and I need to fill that MI spot.  

So here's my concern: with Weeks' defense, he might not be at second base long term, which means I should stick with Longoria to fill my second base hole long term.  But at the same time, I like Tulo a lot, and he's more advanced than Longoria (already in the majors) so I feel like there's less of a risk there.  

But the other concern is this: what if Longoria doesn't play second, and ends up playing 3rd base?  I already have Upton, Andy Marte, Ryan Bruan, and Edwin Encarnacion at 3rd base, so the last thing I need is another 3rd baseman.  

Someone help a brotha out

Ok, I know there was some mystery on what happened with Dukes that he got suspended for the rest of the season.  I have a friend with connections to the Durham Bulls, and he called me earlier today to tell me about his conversation with someone high up in the Drays organization.  

The suspension did not come from the Drays themselves, it was mandated by the Durham front office.  They claimed that if the Devilrays didn't suspend Dukes immediately, that they would forfeit every single game for the remainder of the season and not allow the players to go out onto the field!

Apparently the Durham staff felt that Dukes was making the lives of everyone involved with the organization hell, and this wasn't just the players, but the coaches, trainers, hourly workers, front office staff, etc.  Basically, anyone in his vicinity.  This wasn't just a little pain in the butt, but they felt the careers of a lot of people involved would be affected adversely, and no matter what had been tried, Dukes never seemed to improve.

The Drays were very aggressive in trying to trade Dukes during the trade deadline, but were unable to get anything done.  The only team they were close to making a deal with was the Rangers.  I'm not sure why a trade with them didn't happen, but it was one of two things: the Rays were asking for too much, or the Rangers just didn't want a guy like that in the organization.  

At this point, the executive said that the Rays planned on attempting to trade Dukes for "10 cents on the dollar" during the offseason, or releasing him (which I think is more likely).  But one thing is for sure, his future with the Devil Rays is all but over, unless they plan on starting him in the majors next year, because Durham won't take him back.  

Among the issues that were mentioned was Dukes' father, who is currently in prison for killing a man.  I didn't get any details as far as what the problem was or how this effected him, but this seemed to be a major issue (for obvious reasons, I guess)

When my friend told me about this, I could hardly believe it.  I was sad that a player with so much talent could be so destructive, and to the point where a minor league team would feel the need to make a threat like they did.  

On the other hand, I found it curious that Durham would be willing to take such a risk, and threaten the Drays like they did with forfeiting the entire season.  I've had some privy into the inner workings of Major League Teams and their minor league affiliates, and this seems like something that could directly lead to the end of their affiliation.  That the Durham Bulls decision makers were willing to take this risk speaks volumes about the situation (does anyone know how many years are left on their contract?)

Anyways, I felt I should share this story with the people in this board, I was shocked when I heard it.  I'm sure a couple of Drays fans on here won't believe it or want to believe it, but whatever, here it is.

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For a fun league

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Does anyone know if Verlander is going to be given the 5th spot in the rotation coming out of spring training?  Verlander last year posted these aggregate numbers

118 2/3 IP, 81 H, 26-136 BB / K ratio

Gammons seems to think (in his latest blog) that Verlander or Zumaya could earn the job because the Tigers have only 4 starters that are definately in the rotation, while the 5th spot is wide open.  Anyone know?