SB Nation User Blog: Jgaztambide

Prospecting as investing?

Jgaztambide — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 22:01:35 -0000

I'd like to have a discussion with everyone about what a prospect list ACTUALLY means to you, and what priorities you look at when you rank players. This may seem like a very silly question, but I think it is what ultimately drives a lot of the discussion on the community prospect rankings, whether people are aware of it or not.

To me, my prospect ranking list basically says "If I had to place money on the combination of risk and value for these players, this is what order that risk/value combination would look like"

In other words, I look at it like any investment

I made an analogy over the weekend to JP Morgan or any other investing firm, and the more I think about it, the more it holds true. Imagine if JP Morgan were go come out and upgrade a bunch of Penny stocks as "must buys" with the idea that there is much more to gain from these Penny stocks than there is from blue chippers, whose value may be constant but they are likely not going to explode

Sometimes I feel like our prospect lists are putting Penny stocks at the top to see which one will explode, knowing that for each one that does there are 7 or 8 that will implode. If we do it with prospects, we can always say "See! I told you (XYZ rookie league player with 30 Ab's but huge tools) would be awesome!". But if we did it this way with our money, we would never say "Phew, I lost 70% of my portfolio's value, but at least I got that Joe and Bill's automotive right on the dot!"

So what is a prospect list for you? Trying to find the guys with the highest reward? A combination of risk and reward?

Poll

How do you treat prospect rankings?

Organization: Drafting vs Development

Jgaztambide — Mon, 12 Nov 2007 03:16:39 -0000

This topic has been on my mind for a while, so I decided to throw it out to the community in hopes of generating some discussion

How does one differentiate between an organization's ability to draft and identify talent vs their ability to develop talent?

For example, it seems as though the Dodgers went through a period where they had a lot of very good pitching prospects. Did this happen because they just happened to draft better, or was it because the prospects took a step up once they became a part of the organization?

Similarly, the Indians of the mid-late 90's were a hotbed for young offensive talent, between Manny, Sexson, Alomar, Giles, etc. So did the Indians acquire top notch talent or develop it?

Is it even possible to identify the difference between the two? How do you know if a team found a diamond in the rough or just developed the player?

Adam Lind first year struggles

Jgaztambide — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 19:05:32 -0000

This time last year, there was a large group of people who thought Adam Lind was an A- prospect, based mostly on his performance in the minors in 2006, where he hit 330/394/556 between AA and AAA

This year in the majors, however, he hit 238/278/400, looking completely over-matched for most of the season

Despite his low batting average and very low Walk Rate, he still hit for a very nice amount of power (11 HR in 89 games) with an IsoPower of .162, which isn't too bad for a rook

So what can we expect from Lind moving forward? Was this a bump in the road, or was his high K rate catching up to him? Is next year a breakout year for Mr Lind?

Pelfrey and Balentien

Jgaztambide — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 01:05:25 -0000

Hey guys, I'm sorry for doing this, but there's a trade proposal that I'm waivering on and I want the board's opinion.

I've been offered Travis Snider in return for Mike Pelfrey and Wladimir Balentien. I have really good pitching depth and probably wouldn't use Pelfrey.

I'm not sure if I believe in Balentien's season, since it kind of came out of nowhere.

Snider is a potential stud, and I'm strongly considering pulling the trigger, even knowing he's a teenager below AA

BTW, this is a points league, not a roto league.

Thanks in advance

Poll

Would you trade Pelfrey and Wladimir Balentien for Travis Snider?

The Jed Lowrie Conundrum

Jgaztambide — Wed, 06 Jun 2007 18:51:06 -0000

Jed Lowrie is a SS prospect for the Red Sox, drafted in the supplemental round in 2005 out of Stanford. Lowrie dropped in the MLB draft, having a "disappointing" .317 / .416 /.594 (1.010 OPS) junior season following up his 1.239 OPS sophomore season at Stanford

After being drafted, Lowrie hit a respectable .328 / .429 / .448 in 2005 in 201 AB for The Lowell Spinners in Low A.

In 2006, Lowrie had a pretty bad ankle injury, missed 5 weeks, came back in time to play 97 games, but slumped badly after his injury. It was obvious his ankle injury bothered him all year. In August, he put up a .327 / .380 / .529 line to finish up the season, making fans (like me) optimistic)

2007 was a big year for Lowrie, starting in AA Portland. His first month was terrible, but he went on a recent hot streak and his current line for the 2007 season stands at .293 / .432 / .463, with a 40/30 BB/K ratio

Some things obviously stand out, like his fantastic plate discipline (.140 IsoOBP) and a very very good BB/K ratio. He doesn't have a lot of HR power, but has plenty of gap power.

His defense, while not his strong suit, is enough to play SS at the major league level, though it will likely be average at best.

So my question to the board is, what kind of prospect is Lowrie? Was 2006 an abberation and the result of his ankle injury, or is he simply not good enough to make it in the majors? Where does he rank among SS prospects, considering his success in AA, plate discipline, ability to stay at SS, and strong college pedigree?

Suggestion for John: Archiving

Jgaztambide — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 16:13:04 -0000

I think it would be really great if there were some way to keep a history of all the Crystal balls, Prospect Retros, Community Projections, Prospect Smackdowns, and all of the other features on the site (ahem cheesecake ahem)

If there was a link right above the list of diaries that would take you to a list of all of the features you've done, I think it would add a lot to the site, give us a chance to go back and read them, rather than wonder if you've ever done a prospect Retro on Eric Milton and search the entire site for him.

Just a suggestion, I think it would be easy to do and beneficial.

Garza or Lind?

Jgaztambide — Sat, 17 Feb 2007 20:54:07 -0000

I hate myself for doing this, but I need help on a potential trade. Someone wants Matt Garza from me, and is willing to give me Lind or Loney. If it was loney, it would be straight up. If it was Lind, he would want something else (probably someone like Truinfel, jesus Montero, Angel Beltre, or Elvis Andrus.

The thing about this league is that we need to fill 5 outfield spots and there are 16 teams (you do the Math)

I have Hermida, Delmon Young, Markakis, Milledge, Butler, and Carlos Gonzalez as my outfielders, and the following pitchers (1475 IP limit):

Felix, Hamels, Garz, Hirsh, Broxton, Zumaya, Pelfrey, Liriano, Scott Baker, Betances, Andrew miller, Troy Patton, Michael Bowden, Brandon Erbe, Delois Guerra, Cesar Carrillo and Jon Lester

I'm tempted to, just because of my pitching depth and the tremendous value of outfielders in this league. WHat does everyone here think? I appreciate the help in advance

Poll

Who would you take?

Minorleagueball.com fantasy league?

Jgaztambide — Thu, 02 Nov 2006 02:22:00 -0000

With so many smart baseball people on this site, with so many fantasy players on this site, doesn't it seem like our very own dynasty league should have formed by now? I think it would be a fun (and challenging) thing to do.

I know I wouldn't want to be comissioner cuz I don't have the time, but would someone want to run this? I mean, you can imagine the trash talking between Josh and Crimson extend to another theater? I think it would be high comedy.

Anyways, just a thought.

Evan Longoria, Andrew Miller, and Kershaw

Jgaztambide — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 03:52:29 -0000

The below Longoria / Brignac diary got me thinking about my dynasty league situation, and I need some different perspectives on which direction I should go in for our amateur draft. I know, fantasy questions are the devil, etc, blah blah. Hopefully this turns into a real baseball conversation that has some fantasy implications.

First the details on the league: 16 teams, 40-man rosters, points based system which is slightly tilted towards a SABR-metric stance (in other words, walks are worth more than typical small-world points, saves are devalued, etc)

I have the first two picks in our upcoming amateur draft, and I'm trying to decide who to pick. I've narrowed it down to these three players, but I don't know which ones to pick: Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, and Evan Longoria. This is where I need everyone's help.

My pitching depth took some hits recently. I traded elbert and Humberto Sanchez for Liriano about 10 hours before Liriano hurt his elbow. That was great. I traded Buchholz in a deal for Billy Butler, and lost Jon Lester to cancer (speedy returns and good wishes). My current pitching staff (minors included) is as follows:

Felix, Hamels, Garza, Hirsh, Broxton, Zumaya, Pelfrey, Liriano, Scott Baker, Jon Lester, Troy Patton, Michael Bowden, Brandon Erbe, Deolis Guerra, Cesar Carrillo

I currently don't have any major league 3rd basemen, but I have Braun in the minors. Longoria might move to second, but I'm all set in MI and 2nd with Weeks, Drew, and Tulowitski.

So here's the question, first two picks, anyone in the draft available, in my situation, who do you grab? I'm worried about my pitching depth, but Braun is the only third baseman I have (other than Angel Villalona). Does your answer change if I acquire Edwin Encarnacion for my second round pick?

Sorry for the long / fantasy post, but I'm having trouble coming to a conclusion. Thanks in advance.

Poll

Which direction would you go in?

I've sold my soul to the Devil

Jgaztambide — Tue, 19 Sep 2006 16:25:52 -0000

That's right, I'm asking a fantasy question that's been bugging me for over a week. I just can't make a decision on this one, so I need our collective wisdom to help me decide.

I've been offered Tulowitski for the first overall pick in our ammy draft, a.k.a Evan Longoria, and I can't decide whether or not to pull the trigger. In our league we have one SS, one second base, and one middle infielder position. I have Drew at the SS position, Weeks at 2nd, and BJ Upton at the middle infield position. But now, Upton is playing 3rd (or possibly the outfield in the future), and I need to fill that MI spot.

So here's my concern: with Weeks' defense, he might not be at second base long term, which means I should stick with Longoria to fill my second base hole long term. But at the same time, I like Tulo a lot, and he's more advanced than Longoria (already in the majors) so I feel like there's less of a risk there.

But the other concern is this: what if Longoria doesn't play second, and ends up playing 3rd base? I already have Upton, Andy Marte, Ryan Bruan, and Edwin Encarnacion at 3rd base, so the last thing I need is another 3rd baseman.

Someone help a brotha out