SB Nation User Blog: Jim McLennan

Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy to D-backs, Daniel Schlereth, Max Scherzer to Tigers

Jim McLennan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:53:55 -0000

Jon Heyman is tweeting that the three-way trade between the Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks is a go, pending medicals on the players concerned. The Yankees get Curtis Granderson, the Diamondbacks get Edwin Jackson and Ian Jackson, and the Tigers get Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and a couple of Yankees players. Steve Gilbert also says, "Looks like the three-way trade is going to happen," so that's good enough for me.

Edwin Jackson is 26 and has a career ERA+ of 96 in 110 starts, but had a very solid 2009, posting a 3.62 ERA for the Tigers (ERA+ of 127). Ian Kennedy is 25 and has a career ERA of 6.03, but has only made a dozen starts in the majors. More details and analysis to follow in due course.

While initial fan reaction seems to have been overwhelmingly negative, thus far, put me in the 'meh' category as far as our poll goes. The plus side of the deal is that we, effectively, turned a reliever in Schlereth, into a starter in Kennedy. This effectively fills a hole in the rotation, at relatively little additional cost: Jackson is arb-eligible, but will certainly be cheaper than a free-agent. The negative side, is that we swapped about five years of control over Scherzer, for two years of Jackson - and, in addition, Kennedy has not exactly shown an impressive track record at the major-league level.

Nick Piecoro had some interesting thoughts on the trade, reading between the lines. He thinks it implies that the Diamondbacks possibly have some qualms about Scherzer's long-term presence in the rotation and/or think Kennedy is a better bet for that. While Scherzer's 2009 season was certainly a solid performance, there have still been doubts about his stamina, ability to pitch deep into games and questions over whether he has a good enough third pitch to be a reliable starter.

By most reports, Kennedy has not been projected as being a great deal more than a #4 in the rotation. While that's a spot which needs to be filled for the Diamondbacks, one does wonder about the long-term benefits, after Jackson becomes a free-agent, at the end of the 2011 season. Would we rather have Kennedy or Scherzer in the rotation at that point? However, I suspect the team will be looking to the likes of Jarrod Parker to be filling the front of our starting pitching for 2012 and beyond. Be interesting to hear the explanation from Josh Byrnes, etc.

Ken Rosenthal says the reason for dealing Scherzer is that Arizona "view Scherzer as a reliever, not a starter. Scherzer had Tommy John surgery in high school. He was a reliever in college. And his mechanics remain a concern." Therefore, we are effectively converting two relievers into two starters." However, neutral opinion on the trade has generally been highly-critical of it, from the Diamondbacks viewpoint. Rob Neyer is a good example: "All my friends seem to have this one the same: Great for Yanks, good for Tigers, terrible for Diamondbacks. My friends are usually right."

Steve Gilbert analyzes the trade on his blog, and seems to lean towards liking it, overall. "If Kennedy pans out like the D-backs think he will and Jackson gives them two good years before becoming a free agent then this will wind up being a good deal for the D-backs. Is there risk involved in giving up someone with Scherzer's ability? Absolutely and the D-backs are well aware of that... In the end you have to trust your scouts and if the D-backs feel as strongly as they do about Kennedy they have to follow that." That probably is the key: if Kennedy turns out to be a solid 3/4 starter, then the deal will be worthwhile for Arizona. Keyword there, obviously, is "if"...

Interesting info from Kennedy, who "said he had refined his two-seamer in an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League and believed that pitch would make a major difference for him next season.." Our new pitcher said, "Before, I couldn’t command my two-seamer; it was always talking off the plate and no one would swing at it. It would be really cool to do that famous Greg Maddux thing and start it at a left-hander’s front hip. I’d love to learn that. Right now, it’s something to get guys to swing at and put the ball in play and save pitches." However, I am somewhat concerned by the fact both he and Jackson tend to profile as fly-ball pitchers.

One point worth noting is that Max Scherzer's current price is not exactly minimum league salary, even though he hasn't hit arbitration. His current deal, which runs through next year, was for $4.3m over four, plus "performance bonuses may increase value to $6m," per Cot's. This season, he's due to earn just shy of $1.5m, according to Nick P's last update - not sure whether that includes any bonus or not. Either way, it does narrow the cost somewhat between Scherzer and Jackson in 2010 - Jackson earned $2.2m for the Tigers last season, and is likely due to increase that significantly (I'd guess $4-5m?) after a good performance in 2009.

Poll

The Scherzer/Schlereth for Jackson/Kennedy trade is:

Edwin Jackson and/or Adam Kennedy to Arizona?

Jim McLennan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:38:35 -0000

FoxSports.com reports, "The Tigers are close to trading right-hander Edwin Jackson, according to major-league sources. The identity of the team is not known, but both the Diamondbacks and Mariners are known to have interest. The discussions have been more serious with Arizona than Seattle, according to one source."

The same story also goes on to say, "The Mets and Diamondbacks are the teams showing the most interest in free agent Adam Kennedy, major-league sources say, viewing him as a potential starter at second base." However, Nick Piecoro poo-poohs the latter report: "We’re told this isn’t true. A year ago this time, Kennedy would have made sense. Not now. They’ve got too many holes with too little money to be worrying about second base." Piecoro also reported earlier today that Arizona were "not close" to acquiring Jackson.

The official line from Josh Byrnes is that Arizona is "spending time in trade discussions with various clubs at this time," but Byrnes wouldn't go into any specifics such as players.

2010 in Arizona: First-base

Jim McLennan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:48:32 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

The Panda dives back to first, as a pick-off throw "bamboo-zles" Tracy and "shoots" past him during an April game in Phoenix.

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I'm pleased to report my digestive system is no longer participating in a Michael Bay remake of Krakatoa, East of Java. That's probably for the best, since our first-base situation is enough by itself to make me feel queasy. The past season was like the noted Abbott and Costello sketch for Diamondbacks fans: don't like who's starting first-base today? Come back tomorrow, you'll probably be happier. While we didn't quite have the most number of players at the position in the majors [the Cardinals used nine, though that was mostly LaRussa's late-inning shuffling: Phat Albert started at 1B 157 times], it certainly was the most unstable position on the field for Arizona, with seven different names appearing in the starting line-up.

This continues a decade-long trend: not since our inaugural season in 1998, has the same player started even 130 games at first-base, and in the past two seasons, the highs have been just 67 and 57 starts, by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy respectively. [Today's trivia: name the most-frequent 1B for Arizona each season. Answer at the end of the article] After the jump, we'll take a look at what happened in 2010, and see whether there's hope for things to be any more stable in the upcoming season.

2009 Performance
1. Chad Tracy - 56 starts .237/.306/.389
2. Brandon Allen - 29 starts .202/.284/.385
3. Josh Whitesell - 28 starts .194/.346/.287
4. Mark Reynolds - 24 starts .260/.349/.543
5. Tony Clark - 14 starts .182/.295/.424

It's hard to say how much the numbers above are skewed by the absence of Conor Jackson. He had been a regular there in the previous three seasons, but his shift to left-field would likely have continued last season, given the ongoing failings of Eric Byrnes. However, his absence for the bulk of the season made the dearth of alternatives for Arizona at the position all the more apparent. Overall, first-base produced a line of .228/.321/.396, an OPS of just .717, dead-last in the National League.

Initially, it was Tony Clark and Chad Tracy who split time at the position, but Josh Whitesell was called up just before the managerial switch in early May. Much was expected of him, having hit .328 with 26 homers the previous year in Tucson, but he proved to be a damp squib. Though not helped by a freakishly-low BABIP, he hit only .107 in May and struggled to get his BA above the Uecker line the rest of the way. Some attempts to play Reynolds at first were made: though effective offensively (he hit .323 there), his defense was poor, and the experiment was all but abandoned after the All-Star break

Brandon Allen, acquired from the White Sox in the Tony Peña trade, was the final great hope, getting the bulk of the starts after the middle of August. However, despite similarly-impressive numbers at Triple-A to Whitesell, he struggled equally as much against major-league pitching - left-handers, in particular, gave both prospects fits. This, and a poor performance by Allen in the Arizona Fall League, meant that the Diamondbacks ended the season with just as big a question-mark at first-base as they'd had at any point in the year.

Top Free Agents
Name	Age	2009 Sal.	2009 OPS+
Russell Branyan	34	$1.4m	128
Nick Johnson	32	$5.5m	122
Adam LaRoche	30	$7.05m	122
Hank Blalock	29	$6.2m	86
Carlos Delgado	37	$12m	141
Chance of AZ free-agent activity: high.

2010 Depth-chart and Projections

Brandon Allen - .247/.309/.427
Conor Jackson - .266/.342/.425
Josh Whitesell - .238/.341/.385

We've already seen, courtesy of the Snyder-Overbay talks, that Arizona are not happy with the current candidates for first-base next season. As a result, it seems likely that they will spend some, albeit a minority, of their war-chest (currently estimated at between $10-14 million) on acquiring a more experienced bat at this position - probably one that can deal with left-handed pitching better than Allen or Whitesell have shown themselves to date. Fernando Tatis is an interesting name recently suggested there by Reynolds rapper, who could offer some position flexibility. The alternative at the moment would be to bring Jackson back from left-field to play the position against LHP - I note that he split his time in the Dominican Winter League between the two positions.

However, this decision would pose a couple of problems in turn. Jackson's defense at 1B is notably worse than in RF, and we'd then also be faced with the job of replacing CoJack in left. The most likely candidates there are Gerardo Parra, who is simlarly vexed by left-handers, and Eric Byrnes, who may not even be with the club. I would rather see Jackson left in left (as it were...) and the team go after someone who can platoon with Allen at 1B. That said, the names available as free agents all have issues of one kind or another e.g. Johnson's injury issues, Branyan would be another left-hander, and my assessment of likely activity as "high" also includes the chances of activitiy not directly involving the signing of a free-agent.

The major trading-chip in this area remains Chris Snyder, and I still think the team will look to move him between now and Opening Day. Even if this is not directly for a first-baseman, the salary relief we'd obtain as a result means we can perhaps then take on a player earning more than we could perhaps otherwise afford (whether at first or another spot, such as in the rotation). As a starting point, the six teams to get the lowest 2009 OPS from their catchers were (in descending order): Milwaukee, Houston, Seattle, Toronto, Tampa, Detroit. Might be a good starting point for shopping Snyder.

We will be interested to follow the development of Allen and Whitesell in 2010 - particularly the former, since it's worth remembering, despite his struggles, that he will still be 23 until February. Only 16 position players in the National League that age or younger got 100 PAs last season [three in AZ, who also had Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra], so there should be no rush to judgement. Allen's playing time will likely be determined both by subsequent moves, and how his own splits develop. If he can learn to hit left-handed pitching, and his overall numbers approach those he posted in the minors, he should be primed for the starting spot in 2011. Those are both mighty-big "ifs", however.

[Trivia answer. Here are the most-frequent starters at 1B each season for Arizona. 1998-99, Travis Lee; 2000, Greg Colbrunn; 2001-02, Mark Grace; 2003, Lyle Overbay; 2004, Shea Hillenbrand; 2005, Chad Tracy; 2006-08, Conor Jackson; 2009, Tracy]

This Week in AZ Baseball: winter meetings, drugs and Reno personnel

Jim McLennan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 17:28:02 -0000

I'd just like to say, gastroenteritis sucks. One second, you're feeling perfectly fine, the next you're calling for Ralph and Hughie on the big white telephone. Rinse. Repeat. I haven't been able to be more than 30 feet from a bathroom in two days now, except for the drive to and from work - and certainly makes for a nervous twenty minutes there, I can assure you. [Yes, I could call in sick, but I'm a firm believer that time off should only be taken when you are well enough to enjoy it. If I'm going to be miserable, I may as well get paid for it] Still, life goes on, and so does the ongoing work for the Diamondbacks' front-office, as they build towards 2010.

After the jump, we'll take a look at what the winter meetings may hold for Arizona - brief summary, nothing too startling, probably - discuss some unpleasantness down in Mobile, and look at what some of our guys are doing in the Central and South American leagues. I'll bring the saltine crackers.

The annual winter meetings take place next week in Indianapolis. Nick Piecoro doesn't expect much action over them, saying "The more drawn out the off-season, one team executive mused this week, the better it could be for the Diamondbacks, who might wind up bargain hunting for a pitcher deep into January." This makes some sense: outside of the very shallow top tier of starting pitchers available - which largely begins and ends with John Lackey - there isn't anyone who seems to deserve too much chasing. I wouldn't hold my breath expecting our rotation to be fleshed out until after the New Year.

Steve Gilbert reports that our overall priorities during the winter are "a fourth starter to replace free agent Doug Davis, whom the club is not interested in retaining, some depth in the bullpen and possibly a veteran hitter that could play multiple positions including first base." Again, if you're feeling masochistic, click through to the comments and read such sad drivel from the alleged "fans" as, "Given the overall performance of Max Scherzer last season, his stats, and tendoncies [sic] I would consider him a number 5 kind of starter." Really. If I wasn't already wanting to throw up before, I'm sure I would be on reading that. [Pause for DayQuil]

Speaking of pharmaceutiicals, two Diamondbacks have been suspended for 50 games for failing drug tests. Before your heart stops entirely, I should point out that, while still disappointing, they are minor-leaguers, Daniel Vasquez and Matt Tupman. Both were most recently with Double-A Mobile, though Tupman is now a free-agent. Vasquez tested positive for metabolites of Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance, and Tupman had a second positive test for a "drug of abuse"- an interestingly-vague choice of words that picqued my interest.

Assuming it's the same in the minors, the Major League Baseball drug policy lists the following as "drugs of abuse:" cocaine, LSD, marijuana [are you listening, Timmy?], opiates, MDMA (Ecstasy), GHB and Phencyclidine (PCP). Or, as Amy Winehouse would refer to it, "a good start to the evening." Hey, I guess when you're a 30-year old player in Double-A, guees you need to make your own entertainment... Since Matt is a free-agent, the suspension will kick in whenever he signs with a team: this news will not exactly have improved the chances of that happening.

Larry Dobrow looks at the Diamondbacks. Not really too much new there - the impact of injuries, no need to panic, the young talent which has to develop - but his take on Eric Byrnes was... Well, here you go: "Speaking of giant sucking sounds, Eric Byrnes is a great guy to have around if you need color commentary during the potato-sack race at the team picnic. Unfortunately, that's more or less where his usefulness ends. His speed and kamikaze defense is as much a relic of 2007 as that one Justin Timberlake song. You know, the one with the little falsetto flutter." He concludes by saying, "The Diamondbacks will vault past the Rockies and Giants on their way to challenging for the wild card, if not the NL West title." I'll have what he's having.

Brett Butler will be back to manage the Reno Aces in 2010. He initially interviewed for the vacant third-base position with the Marlins - ironically, this was empty because previous incumbent, Bo Porter, left to take up the same spot with the Diamondbacks. Pitching coach Mike Parrott and hitting coach Rick Burleson will also return - the former was also looking elsewhere this winter, interviewing for a spot as minor league pitching coordinator in Seattle, but didn't get it either. It'll be Butler's fifth year as a manager in the Diamondbacks organization.

A quick run through the latest activities of the Diamondbacks in winter ball. Tony Abreu has managed exactly zero walks in the two weeks since we last updated things, though his last game for Aguilas appears to have been on November 28. Not been able to find any sources explaining why, or that I can even pass to Mrs. SnakePit for translation from the Spanish. Also in the Dominican is Pedro Ciriaco, who continue a 2009 tour which has already seen him play in Mobile and Scottsdale. In Venezuela, Rusty Ryal and Gerardo Parra are seeing action: the latter put together back-to-back three-hit outings, while Ryal appears to be collecting bruises, having been hit four times in only seven games.

Some of our relievers have also entered action. Esmerling Vasquez has thrown three hitless innings in the Dominican for Estrellas de Oriente, but Juan Gutierrez's first two appearances on behalf of Leones del Caracas in Venezuela have not gone so well. In two innings, the results have been five hits and three earned runs. Gutierrez ended up taking the loss in the second game, after coming in for the eleventh with the scores tied. And with, back on to the Gastic Flu Weight-loss Diet I go. Jenny Craig, eat your heart out! I'll never laugh at "flu-like symptoms" ever again, I swear...

The 2009 'Pitties: MVP

Jim McLennan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:36:03 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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Haren, to no great surprise, cantered to victory in the Cy Young award, notching a thoroughly-convincing 86% of votes. Here's to the contest being a little closer in 2010, with Webb and Scherzer perhaps pushing Haren with their own pitching performances. We now move on to the final award: Most Valuable Player for the Diamondbacks in 2009.

You're kinda lucky this isn't just five players' name with a one-line summary such as 'Reynolds: hit the ball hard.' For yesterday, I came down with something rather nasty, stomach bug-wise - I'll spare you the details, but it was like a re-enactment of the Mr Creosote sketch from Monty Python's Meaning of Life. It was not a pleasant night. However, I am a bit better this morning [thanks go to Mrs. SnakePit and her NyQuil, hot sweet tea and damp towels for my forehead], so after the jump, we'll review the five top candidates for Diamondbacks MVP. I can not promise, however, that it will be entirely cut-and-paste free. Hey, I'm still not well...

I've also included the WAR [Wins Above Replacement] value from fangraphs.com, though obviously these do not take into account 'intangibles' such as leadership, etc. which may be considered important when deciding who is 'Most Valuable'. Will Haren's clear lead in this category be outweighed by his absence from the field of play four days out of five? It certainly doesn't seem to have hurt Brandon Webb, winner in both 2006 and 2007. He won't be a factor in this year's poll, and I'm thinking it could be quite close, as you could make a credible case for the majority of the nominees listed. After the jump, we'll list the names and put forward the cases.

Dan Haren: 6.1 WAR, 229.1 IP, 3.14 ERA

Haren posted his fifth straight 200-inning season in 2009, one of only four pitchers with such a streak (alongside Vasquez, Buerhle and Arroyo). Dan was also the best pitcher in the National League over the first-half of the season, with a 2.01 ERA, and a K:BB ratio better than 8:1. He had 18 quality starts in his first 19 outings, including seven straight where he went 7+ innings and allowed two or less runs - there hasn't been a longer streak in the NL since 2001. While Haren cooled off after the break, he still set career highs for IP, K and ERA+ and came within one measly hit of becoming the first NL starter in four years to have a WHIP below one.

Miguel Montero: 3.3 WAR, .294/.355/.478, 16 HR

One of the more pleasant surprises in 2009. Montero produced the best season ever offensively by an Arizona catcher (min. 150 PAs): his OPS of .832 broke Robby Hammock's record set in 2003, as Miggy became one of the top-hitting catchers in the National League. He tied the franchise high for both hits and home-runs at the position, and got more PAs in the majors than over the previous three seasons combined, taking over as our everyday starter behind the plate. Montero held his own against both left- and right-handers, and his defensive abilities grew noticeably better as the season went on. Montero's emergence ensures that catcher is not a position we'll need to worry about in 2010.

Mark Reynolds: 3.9 WAR, .260/.349/.543, 44 HR

Special K lived up to both halves of his nickname, becoming the first Diamondback since 2003 to drive in a hundred runs, and smacking 44 home-runs, including some of the most majestic ones seen in the majors all year, while smashing his own single-season record for strikeouts. Reynolds also developed into a clubhouse presence, not afraid to call out team-mates for their lack of effort, while giving the maximum himself. This showed up in his defense, including some spectactular plays made with wilful disregard for his own safety, but which improved considerably by most objective measures. This was the year when Reynolds truly came of age.

Max Scherzer: 3.2 WAR, 170.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

Questions about Scherzer's stamina coming into 2009 were largely answered: the 25-year old threw over three thousand pitches, ranking him between Cole Hamels and Zach Duke, and gradually stretched out, to the point where he averaged 6.60 IP/start in September, a career high. He also ranked 13th in the league for strikes, at 65%, ahead of Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Scherzer had a 2.16 ERA in June, which included his best outing, 7.2 shutout innings against the Giants. Not helped by his defense - the 16 unearned runs allowed was an NL high - Scherzer simply did it himself, fanning more than a batter per inning.

Justin Upton: 4.5 WAR, .300/.366/.532, 26 HR

Only four qualifying 21-year olds in the expansion era have had a better OPS than Upton produced for us in 2009: Pujols, A-Rod, Griffey and Cesar Cedeno. At his age, it would have been impressive enough for J-Up simply to justify his position, but to lead the team in BA, play in the All-Star Game and get an MVP vote, is an amazing achievement. While he still made his share of mistakes (the 420-foot single; the faked ball-toss), he also delivered more than his share of jaw-dropping moments in virtually all aspects of his game, with some dazzling defensive plays, showcasing the JUpzooka, as well as a prodigious bat.

Poll

Who was Arizona's MVP in 2009?

Chat with D-backs' GM Byrnes

Jim McLennan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:13:38 -0000

Chat with D-backs' GM Byrnes

Short notice, I know, but Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes will participate in a live Web chat Thursday at 2 p.m. Arizona time. Fans are invited to chat with the GM about his goals for the club heading into next week's Winter Meetings. Also expect at least one questioner asking why we don't re-sign Randy Johnson, or something similarly eye-rolling.

[Updated] Actually, it was surprisingly restrained, with a good number of decent questions, though nothing too surprising. Here's the chat transcript.

No arbitration for Davis, Tracy and Schoeneweis

Jim McLennan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:04:55 -0000

No arbitration for Davis, Tracy and Schoeneweis

Per Steve Gilbert on Twitter, "D-backs decline to offer arbitration to Doug Davis, Chad Tracy and Scott Schoeneweis." Not really any surprises here: Davis was the only one where I imagine any real thought was required. I imagine it was decided the risk of Davis accepting outweighed the Type B compensation [a sandwich draft pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds]

2010 in Arizona: Catcher

Jim McLennan — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 22:54:39 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Montero gets up-close and personal with Todd Helton at home plate in Denver on July 4.

View full size photo »

Having completed the review of last season, it's time to turn the spotlight forward and look at what 2010 might bring for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I'll be doing this on a position-by-position basis, each Monday, and hope to keep them updated as we move through the winter, hence the imminent presence of a handy reference list on the sidebar. I'll be taking a look at what we got out of the spot in 2009, whether we might be looking to strengthen ourselves at the spot during the winter, and coming up with our depth-chart at the position for 2010.

We start off by going behind the plate, a spot which saw a definite shift in focus last season. Chris Snyder, with a solid contract extension, was the everyday starter, and there had even been discussion of shifting backup Miguel Montero to third-base during the preceding off-season. Circumstances, however, would end up driving the team in an entirely different direction, one that will likely persist into 2010. After the jump, we'll go into more detail about who'll be catching for the Diamondbacks next year.

2009 Performance
1. Miguel Montero - 101 starts .294/.355/.478
2. Chris Snyder - 51 starts, .200/.333/.352

Randy Johnson might have been right. Back during spring training, he said of Montero, "I really like him... I think if he was to play every day, he'd probably hit 25 home runs, bat .265 to .270 and probably have 65 to 70 RBIs. He's that good of a hitter." At that time, it seemed an empty projection with Snyder cemented as our everyday starter behind the plate. However, in 2009, Montero got the chance, thanks to Snyder's back, and took full advantage. Starting less than two out of three games, he smacked 16 homers, drove in 59 runs and came within three hits of batting .300 on the season. Indeed, after becoming the #1 in late June, Montero was even better, posting a line of .318/.363/.520.

Poor Chris Snyder. If there's one thing you wouldn't wish on a catcher, it's back problems [well, that and a badly-bruised testicle, but I wouldn't wish that on anyone...]. However, he struggled with a spinal disk from May, hampering his production all year, and eventually forcing him out of the line-up on June 21st. Snyder managed only 37 PAs the rest of the season, and underwent surgery to relieve pressure on a nerve in late September. He should be fine for spring training, but appears to have lost his position as the Diamondbacks' everyday catcher.

Top Free Agents
Name	Age	2009 Sal.	2009 OPS+
Bengie Molina	35	$6.25m	86
Miguel Olivo	31	$2.7m	103
Yorvit Torrealba	31	$3.75m	87
Gregg Zaun	38	$1.5m	99
Ivan Rodriguez	38	$1.5m	73
Chance of AZ free-agent activity: none at all.

2010 Depth-chart and Projections

Miguel Montero (.266/.333/.435)
Chris Snyder (.233/.333/.410)
John Hester (.242/.285/.388)

We've already seen the team plan, with the trade discussions involving Chris Snyder between Arizona and Toronto. The problem is not so much Snyder, as Snyder's contract. The extension signed in December 2008 means that he is due to be paid $4.75 million in 2010 and $5.75 million in 2011. While not bad for an everyday starter behind the plate, it's far above what you would want to pay for a back-up at the position. The combination of that deal and his back surgery will also hamper any attempts to trade Snyder. The team don't "need" to trade him (though the salary relief would be welcome), and if nothing acceptable can be worked out, we'll likely keep Chris and he'll be a more-than acceptable second-string catcher.

It does seem another premature contract extension offered to Diamondbacks, on the basis of a single good season - see also Chris Young, Chad Tracy and Eric Byrnes - and implies a dismissal of any possibility Montero would prove better long-term. I can see the purpose of these moves, at least for the young players: provide cost certainty and lock them in at a rate that works for the team. However, the results so far of this tactic have been mixed, to put it mildly, and one wonders whether somewhat more caution will be exercised going forward. I note there has been little public discussion of extending Mark Reynolds, who already has almost 1,700 PAs under his belt, more than Young, Tracy or Snyder when they were inked.

Montero enters 2010 anointed as the #1 for the first time in his career, with all talk of moving him to third-base completely silenced. One very encouraging thing about last season was how Miggy hit LHP and RHP with almost equal ability - his OPS against left-handers was actually 14 points better, albeit in only 88 PAs. Any scheduled days off will still likely come when we face southpaws, but it doesn't appear Montero will be an automatic out if he has to see one due to the game situation.

It'll be interesting to see how Montero's defense evolves. This was originally a major knock against him, and it was a nerve-wracking experience when he threw down to second. However, he increased his caught stealing percentage from 21% in 2008 to 26% this season, not far below the National League average (29%). He also seemed to get more comfortable with calling games, as he became more familiar with the pitching staff, and one would expect this aspect of his game to continue improving next season, with additional experience. He came in to 2009 with only 106 career starts at the major-league level - he has now almost doubled that.

Unless Snyder is traded, John Hester will likely be stashed down in Reno, inside a case stating "In case of emergency, break glass." At the present time, he won't be expected to see playing time otherwise, but didn't disgrace himself in his brief major-league stint last season, and seems like a credible enough third option, or even an occasional back-up should Snyder depart. I doubt he'd be much worse offensively than Luke Carlin, who occupied the same slot at the start of 2009.

The 2009 'Pitties: The Cy Young Award

Jim McLennan — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:28:02 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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Congratulation to Gerardo Parra, who romped away with the Rookie of the Year 'Pittie, with 68% of the overall vote. I'm a little surprised it was quite as wide a margin, because by objective measurements like WAR or VORP, Parra was a good deal less credible a candidate than Juan Gutierrez. For instance, by WAR, Gutierrez came in at 1.5 wins, while Parra was all the way down at 0.3 wins. That puts him behind Rusty Ryal (0.6) and Zavada (0.4) and only fractionally ahead of Trent Oeltjen (0.2). However, by the time this was mentioned to me, Parra already had what was basically an unsurmountable lead.

To be honest, I've got a feeling this penultimate award is going to prove even more one-sided - and in this case, I don't think there will likely be much argument from the sabermetric community. Frankly, a chunk of me is tempted to toss up the obvious nomination and then go back to gnawing on honey-baked ham [which is basically what I'll have been doing for the past 24 hours or so] . However, that would be an abdication of my responsibilities. And, perhaps more important, merely typing the words "honey-baked ham" made me feel slightly nauseous. So, after the jump, we'll go through the five names on the ballot. And remember, it's an honor simply to be nominated...

Doug Davis: 203.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

After three seasons of DD, we're used to it by now. He's up to sixth on the all-time franchise list for innings pitched, and hit 200 IP for the first time in Arizona. His WHIP of 1.505 was also the lowest it has been with the Diamondbacks, despite Davis leading the league in walks (103). However, Davis was then insanely good with men on base, posting a line of .215/.310/.321. Davis certainly deserved a better record: in the past fifteen seasons, only four qualifying NL pitchers have had a W-L% below .400 and a better ERA+ than Doug's 111 [Brandon Webb's 2004 leads that list]. If this was his last hurrah in Arizona, he can leave with his head held high.

Dan Haren: 229.1 IP, 3.14 ERA

Haren posted his fifth straight 200-inning season in 2009, one of only four pitchers with such a streak (alongside Vasquez, Buerhle and Arroyo). Dan was also the best pitcher in the National League over the first-half of the season, with a 2.01 ERA, and a K:BB ratio better than 8:1. He had 18 quality starts in his first 19 outings, including seven straight where he went 7+ innings and allowed two or less runs - there hasn't been a longer streak in the NL since 2001. While Haren cooled off after the break, he still set career highs for IP, K and ERA+ and came within one measly hit of becoming the first NL starter in four years to have a WHIP below one.

Chad Qualls: 52 IP, 3.63 ERA

In his first year as full-time closer, Qualls ended the season with 24 saves in 29 opportunities, good for sixth on the franchise all-time list. He'd likely have finished third, except he blew out his knee and missed the last month, following the pitch which secured his final save. That came as a pity, because he'd posted a 2.90 ERA over July and August. Qualls showed excellent control, walking just seven batters all year (he had almost as many double-plays: five), while fanning 45 hitters. 69% of all his pitches were strikes, and pitching in Chase didn't bother Chad at all: his ERA here was 2.63, with opponents held to a .657 OPS.

Max Scherzer: 170.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

Questions about Scherzer's stamina coming into 2009 were largely answered: the 25-year old threw over three thousand pitches, ranking him between Cole Hamels and Zach Duke, and gradually stretched out, to the point where he averaged 6.60 IP/start in September, a career high. He also ranked 13th in the league for strikes, at 65%, ahead of Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Scherzer had a 2.16 ERA in June, which included his best outing, 7.2 shutout innings against the Giants. Not helped by his defense - the 16 unearned runs allowed was an NL high - Scherzer simply did it himself, fanning more than a batter per inning.

Clay Zavada: 51 IP, 3.35 ERA

Left-handed relief has often been a problem for Arizona, but Zavada's ERA+ of 136 was the best by such a player for us since 2000 (min 40 IP). Zavada set a franchise rookie record of nineteen consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run, which was also the best streak ever to start a career in the NL. Curiously, he was particularly brutal on right-handers, holding them to a .205 average, and faced 98 batters before allowing a home-run in the majors, during Zavada's 25th outing. His off-field contributions were perhaps as important: he energized the bullpen, the dugout and the fan-base like no-one else on the 2009 roster.

Poll

Who takes home the 2009 Cy Young 'Pittie award?

Happy Thanksgiving

Jim McLennan — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 17:10:29 -0000

Here's a quick list of some of the baseball-related things, for which I'm thankful today:

The game itself. Elegant in its simplicity, but endlessly fascinating.
Jerry Colangelo, for having the vision and drive to bring baseball to the desert. I'd still have moved out here if there hadn't been a team, but I can hardly imagine myself supporting the closest team, the Padres...
The 2001 World Series. There are eight teams in baseball that have never won a World Series, and three more that last did so more than fifty years ago. For the Diamondbacks to do so in my first year living here was a gift beyond compare.
Chris: she shares as much of my passion for the game as possible, and tolerates the rest with endless patience.
The community here at the 'Pit, who have shared their knowledge (not just in baseball!), humor and love of the game in a way that never ceases to amaze me and be appreciated.
Blez and the rest of the SB Nation team, for building, maintaining and continuously improving the engine-room that powers this thing.
Honey-baked ham. Oops, how did that get on here? ;-)
The Diamondbacks organization. They're not perfect - no franchise ever will be - but they respect the fans and listen to them in a way that surpasses just about every team anywhere.
The Diamondbacks' players. There are certain (un-named) players on certain teams, who make me wonder how fans of that team can look at themselves in the mirror. There's no-one like that in Arizona.
Hope. The feeling that 2010 is going to be better than 2009. That's something precious, which is not something every fan can say they feel.

I doubt there'll be much traffic on the site today, but if anyone cares to add to the list, please do so - you can also tell us what your day is going to be like. I'm currently awaiting the return of Mrs. SnakePit, who has gone to pick up her mother, and the turkey has just begun its slow-cooking process. Sorry, did I say "turkey"? I think Chris must have picked up a pterodactyl by mistake, going by the size of the beast. Anyway, various family members will be swinging by later, and we're going to have dinner out on the porch. This will be followed by the traditional groaning, complaining that we've eaten too much and falling asleep in front of the television.

Please have a happy, fun and safe Thanksgiving, and I'll see you tomorrow for the leftovers!